Daybreak Weekend: Fed Meeting, UK Election, BOJ Decision - podcast episode cover

Daybreak Weekend: Fed Meeting, UK Election, BOJ Decision

Jun 12, 202638 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a look ahead to the next FOMC decision, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead.
  • In the UK – a look ahead to a high stakes UK election and Bank of England decision.
  • In Asia – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we'll look to the next policy decision from the FET. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.

Speaker 3

I'm Caroline Hepkeit in London, where we're asking what's next for the UK as it sits on the precipice of two big economic and political decisions.

Speaker 4

I'm Doug Christner looking ahead at what's expected to be a rate hike next week from the Bank of Japan.

Speaker 1

That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three YEO New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg ninety two nine Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syrias, XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

Speaker 2

Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with the Federal Reserve. All eyes will be on the world's most important central bank when it begins its June policy meeting on Tuesday and issues its decision Wednesday, the first decision and news conference for new FED chair Kevin worsh For more and what to expect, we are joined by the man who will be in the room when the decision comes down, Michael McKee, International economics and

policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio and Television. No pressure, right, Mike, I mean how much pressure is Warsh facing? Is he under pressure right now?

Speaker 5

Yes, he's under pressure, maybe a little bit different than people anticipated. When the President was first nominating him, there was a feeling that, of course Trump would be on his case immediately to start lowering interest rates. The President said at one point, I'm not going to pick anybody who won't cut interest rates. But since then we've seen inflation flow up quite a bit because of the war

that Donald Trump started. So Trump seems to be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt still as a cloud hanging over Warsh and his nomination and his ascension to the chair, and so people will be watching to see what he does to try to demonstrate his independence. He doesn't have to make a decision, he doesn't have to cut rates, he doesn't have to raise rates. They

can just leave them where they are. But does he say the right things that the market wants to hear about the FED caring about inflation and making sure that they will do the right thing as opposed to just automatically wanting to cut rates.

Speaker 2

Well, let's talk about what the market is looking for in terms of how the Fed could react to the data. We are still seeing elevated price pressures, a little bit of shakiness, I think you could say in the labor market right now. How does the FED react to that in this meaning.

Speaker 5

Well, the interesting question and probably not going to be too controversial, is whether they drop the guidance that they've had in there by saying that, you know, in considering any further rate moves, which everybody reads as a sign of in considering further rate cuts. That was the phrase that led to the three descents last time. And so they'll probably take that out and leave the statement fairly and and I and leave it open as neutral as they can be, which will then lead us into the

summary of economic projections and the dot plot. Do they still foresee rate cuts in the dot plot either this year or next, or do we start seeing people think that they need to move rates up? Are there going to be any higher dots? And then we get Kevin Warsh and we'll see what he says about all of that.

Speaker 2

And we'll see what he says about the dot plot itself. Right, I mean, even before he became chair, he has been critical of a lot of the communication that the FED puts out there. Do you expect him to say anything more about FED communication?

Speaker 5

Well, I'm sure he's going to be asked. I don't know if he's ready yet to say exactly what he wants to do, but he has made it clear he thinks a that federal Federal Reserve officials talk too much, that it becomes a cacaphany and it doesn't help the markets. And he's also been an opponent of the dot plot, feeling it locks members into their positions longer than they

should be if the circumstances change. It's very early. He's only been in the job for about two weeks, given the length of time it took to get him confirmed. So he may just let the process go forward this month, but he'll be asked about it, and so it'll be interesting to see whether he says, I want to get rid of it or I'm going to talk to my colleagues about it, or I haven't thought about it yet.

Speaker 2

I don't know if we could call this an elephant in the room, Mike, but we do know that a former chair is going to be in the room in Jay Powell. Does Powell fade away in this meeting or what's it going to mean for the Central Bank to have two chairs at the same meeting.

Speaker 5

I suspect that Jay powellill do his best to fade away, to fade into the background. It would probably be some sort of really strange decision that would lead him to dissent, and that would be the only news he would make out of it. He's not going to be talking to us. We won't know from the transcripts what he said, what positions he took, and I don't think we're going to hear from him a lot Outside of all of this.

He's remaining on the Fed, obviously for the reasons that we all know about with his dispute with the administration, but he has made it clear he doesn't want to be the shadow FED chair. He doesn't want to interrupt or interfere with what Kevin Warsh is doing. So while he will play a role. He'll get his speaking moments during the meeting. We won't know about it, and that'll be the way he likes it.

Speaker 2

Thanks for this, Mike, really looking forward to your coverage this week. That is Michael McKee, international economics and Policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio and Television. Ahead of Kevin Warsh's first policy decision this Wednesday, we will of course have full coverage for you right here on Bloomberg Radio. Let's take a look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager, joined by Bloomberg's Judy LaGrue, and we're looking forward to some more earnings this week.

We're going to hear from Kroger Thursday. Look at what Bloomberg Intelligence has to say about the grocery chain. Expectations here don't look too great, Judy.

Speaker 6

That's right. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts are seeing that Kroger is set for its weakest sales and profit growth of the year. So I think for them it's really like the focus on that is the seam source sales growth, which is expected to be the lowest since August twenty twenty four. But Nathan, I have a question for you. Yeah, talk to me a little bit about how you think about grocery shopping. Do you prefer to go in person? Do you prefer to go through an app to get your groceries delivery?

Speaker 2

I go to the grocery store almost every day just to fill up on like the one recipe that I have to do every day. So yeah, I'm an in store person.

Speaker 6

Kind of okay, interesting, you know, I am here in Manhattan and I miss going to the grocery store in person. I am a transplant, and so I've had to adjust to you getting delivery over going into the grocery store. But it is an experience and I do like and miss that experience greatly.

Speaker 7

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean these grocery stores they still get the business, you know, whether whether they're getting it delivered or not. Right, But I mean, is it just same store sales alone that are potentially going to be dragging Kroger's results down?

Speaker 6

I mean, truly, for Kroger, it's a story of trying to catch up to where the business is. And so Kroger primarily is trying to spur growth than their grocery

business through their e commerce fulfillment. So that's through partnerships with Instacart, with door Dash, with Uber Eats, and right now they're really seeing that basically a lot of their business is coming from people who are ordering delivery on an increasing basis, and so in tandem with that, there is for Kroger a lot of thought into price cuts and what that looks like for them as they compete with other grocery store providers who deliver like Amazon, like Walmart.

And so one thing I was looking at was City researchers really noting how vocal the CEO, Greg Foreman, what foreign was in the press about price cuts on the day that Walmart reported their earnings, and City analy is called that quote strange timing and not coincidental, which I liked, you know, I thought that was really interesting and good language to use. But they certainly perceived the talk about price cuts as quote poking the bear.

Speaker 2

Seriously, when you think about, you know, just how expensive everything is right now, it's very top of mind for anybody, whether they're going into the store or getting it by delivery. But before we hear from Kroger on Thursday, we're going to get some more earnings from Carmas on Wednesday. How's the car market looking right?

Speaker 6

Now, Judy, I mean, look, I think that there's a lot going on and the car market is a reflection of what we're seeing in the economy. I think, really Carmas is an interesting company stock earning result to watch because used car sales are certainly on top of mind for a lot of us in terms of it's read on the consumer, it's read on affordability for used cars, auto credit, whether the retail turnaround is actually working. I mean, there's so many roads that lead to use car purchasing.

So at least for Carmas, what we're looking at in terms of the street and analysts, they're looking at and adjusted earnings per share of about ninety seven cents, which is down thirty percent from this time last year, and revenue was also expected to be slightly lower year over year. And so I think that is really sort of reflective of where we're seeing used car sales just as an economy,

as a country, there's just strain there. And so as a result, investors aren't really looking for a blowout growth story here. They're looking for evidence that the worst of this storm, in terms of really wavering and dropping used car interest in sales, is starting to stabilize and sort of steady out as far as CarMax.

Speaker 2

And what more stock we're going to watch maybe for the next few weeks here with the World Cup on is Draft Kings do you think we're going to see investors get a payoff from the tournament?

Speaker 6

Judy, Oh goodness, this is a really this is the crux of the question here. I think it depends on a number of things. It depends on whether the World Cup will bring in more betters, more dollars waged, or more repeat customers, and that is something that in my view,

remains to be seen. I think we'll have to sort of understand what the handle or the total amount bet looks like as the World Cup gets underway, and whether or not Draft Kings can turn this big event into new users without spending too much on promotions, which I

think is really they're set up for that. Analyst Ian Moore at Bernstein really pointed out Draft Kings as being the clearest prediction market sports betting winner of the World Cup, and I think those are really really strong words, and for that, I think it's certainly something to watch from a perspective of stock movement as it pertains to the perception of the amount of betters who are jumping in or even increasing their wagers as a result of the World Cup.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we'll be keeping an eye on it as the tournament goes on. Thanks for this, Judy, great having you on with us.

Speaker 8

Thanks guy.

Speaker 2

That's Judy LaGrue, reporter for Bloomberg News and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look at what's next for the UK as it's on the precipice of two big economic and political decisions. I'm Nathan Hager and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. Up later in the program, we'll look to a monetary policy decision from the Bank

of Japan. But in the coming days, a high stakes election takes place in the UK on the same day as the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets to make its latest interest rate decision. With both economics and politics at a crucial juncture, how will the two interact in the UK? For more, Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg day Break. You're a banker, Caroline Hepger Nathan.

Speaker 3

The by election in Makerfield in the coming days will take place in a constituency of former mining towns, some leafy villages and commuter suburbs between Liverpool and Manchester in the north of England. It could have very significant consequences for the future of Britain. Just about seventy seven thousand voters will potentially decide the next UK leader, who will

govern over a population of some seventy million. Its Member of Parliament, Josh Simmons, resigned to give former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham a route back into Parliament, a prerequisite for an expected leadership challenge against Prime Minister Kirs Starmer, but the competition is far from a foregone conclusion. Once a safe Labour seat due to the area's historic ties to mining and trade unions, is yet another place where the governing party has sheared support to the populist and

anti immigrant Reform UK Party led by Nigel Farage. The constituency is a deliberate choice though for Burnham, say his backers to fight a tight contest where there is a direct threat from Reform so he can show how he would beat them in the next general election, which must be called before August twenty twenty nine. Burnham is not the only would be challenger, though to Starmer, former Health Sexuary, where Streeting is also expected to mount a bid for

the Labor leadership should a contest take place now. He recently spoke to Bloomberg's Francin in Laqua.

Speaker 9

I think Andy will win and make a field when none of us and the included taking it for granted. It comes back to this fundamental point, though, which is I can see Andy's strengths. I think he needs to be tested. I think his ideas need to be tested, and so do mine. And I'm probably a rare thing in the Labor Party. I'm a monarchist, but this is one coronation that I I'm not enthusiastic about. I think you need a debate. I think you need a battle

of ideas. He needs to set out his store, I need to set out mine.

Speaker 3

That was Labor politician West Treating, speaking to Bloomberg's Farcy and Lacqua at the London south By Southwest Festival. The UK stands at the precipice in no small part due to the state of the economy and voters who don't usually turn out in enormous numbers for by elections. We'll be going to the polls on the very same day as the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee makes its decision on interest rates as it assesses the extent to

which higher energy costs are affecting domestic prices. We're going to dig into both topics now with Bloomberg's Politics reported, Jacob Reid and our economists covering the UK and the euro Area, Ana Andrede. Welcome to both of you. So i'll call it the two Andy's Andy Burnham and Andrew Bailey. Lots of candidates of course running in the by election, and lots of policymakers at Bank of England too. But

that's just my shorthand for really thinking about next Thursday. Jacob, why do you think, though, that the vote in make a Field is so important?

Speaker 10

Oh my goodness. I mean it's completely bizarrest by election in a you know, we're going to be seventy thousand voters or something like that, and it could reshape British politics. We've got a Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who's historically unpopular. The Labor Party is seeing those polls we're very worried. And Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester of Greater Manchester, is the most popular politician in the country. The issue is he can't become Labor Leader and Prime Minister without

being in Parliament. So one of the Labor MPs stood down and said, go on, Andy, running this by election and if you win, you'll be able to challenge for the leadership. And it's a big if. It's a big if, it's not a done deal.

Speaker 3

No, So what does the polling look like? What have candidates actually been campaigning on in quite an unusual contest obviously.

Speaker 10

Yeah, so there have been two poles. They both put Andy Burnham ahead by different amounts. For most recent one was ten percentage points ahead, which you would say is relatively comfortable. But it's notoriously difficult to do accurate polling

in small constituencies to get an accurate sample. So while people probably do think Andy Burnham will win, there's a strong challenge from Robert Kenyan, who's the Reform UK candidate, and he's basically saying that Andy Burnham is using this constituency as a stepping stone for his personal ambition and that you know he's still labor, and Labour's very unpopular.

Speaker 3

Is there anyone in the North of England who doesn't know the name Andy Burnham? I doubt it. He's certainly playing on home turf in terms of that record. And I know you've spent lots of time in the constituency and in the North of England thinking about that. So what do you kind of extract from his record?

Speaker 10

The big thing is buses. I mean to go to make Afield ashually in Makeerfield, the town center and you see these big yellow buses going past you. And his big policy has been taken them back under public control, capping the fairs to two pounds, making sure they do roots for the kind of in the middle of nowhere, but a bit of a lifeline for those people. That's his big thing. And also Greater Manchester is just an

area of it's doing really well. The UK economy is quite gloomy, and this is a city, a city region. It's really been outpacing a lot of a lot of the country. It feels like things are happening. Buildings are going up. So he's kind of trying to capitalize on that good vibe.

Speaker 3

Really yeah, absolutely well, Anna, let's bring you in at this point, then we know that the UK is facing obviously political turmoil with all of this, just walk us through then the economic picture right now for.

Speaker 11

The U, Yeah, definitely. So obviously we've had a very strong start to the year. We've seen real GDP gaining zero point six percent quarter on quarter. That's very unusual. There's all these question marks about whether that reflects strong momentum in underlying activity or actually it's just a problem that the OS is not fully capturing a shift in the pattern of economic activity. Regardless, we expect and our outlook for the next coming quarters is actually quite gloomy.

And that's obviously on the Iran war. So as a net importer of energy, they run more to rising energy costs, means that there'll be a taxflationary shock to the economy. We're going to see headline inflation increasing faster than we were expecting. We've actually revised our forecast compared to the pre war We see it higher by one point five

percentage points by the start of next year. That's obviously a squeeze, real income squeeze for households, and and on top of that you had tightening and funding conditions because markets are no longer pricing in rate cuts from the BOE. So our outlook even before sort of all of this political thermol was for extreme weak growth over the next coming quarters.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Absolutely, And you know we don't have a resolution to the war in Iran and that is certainly a big, big challenge. And I suppose going back to the kind of politics, that's one of the big questions, isn't it how somebody like Andy Burnham would translate his policies nationally, what his bigger economic plans might be when the backdrop we know has been massively challenging for Kistoma, the currently leader, and even leaders.

Speaker 10

Before that, exactly, it would be difficult for anyone coming in. Broadly speaking, Burnham has said he wants to take more control of essential industries, so the bus is a key example, or some energy water. He stopped short of saying he would want to nationalize. It might be more regulation. He's also talked a bit about a new way of doing politics, devolving more tax and spend powers to local areas and

maybe even changing the electoral system. And historically he's been in favor of rejoining the EU, but he knows he's competing in a constituency that voted to leave, so he's kind of walked back from those comments. I think basically there are two different school of thoughts. One is that he's more left wing than Keir Starmer. He's a bit more radical. He's talked about MC government shouldn't be in hot to the bond markets. That was interpreted by some

as you know crikee, he's going to borrow more. He said that he meant that we need a long term plan and not to just follow sort of guilt girations. The other school of thought is that he's basically a bit more of a charming Kio Starmer. He would have similar policies. He's said he's in favor of a lot of pretty tough restrictions the government has done on immigration. He just sell them a bit better. He's a bit more charismatic and it's not clear which Andy Vernon we might get.

Speaker 3

So then what do we think that the Bank of England amidst all of this is going to do.

Speaker 11

I mean, I think right now the focus is still pretty much on the Iran war and the impact that it can have on the economy. I think the political uncertainty and obviously the question mark of what will happen to fiscal policy will be a crucial thing for the bo's policy outlook, but it's just not We just know very little of what's going to happen there. BOE policy makers take policy announcements as given, so there's little they can do now regarding the upcoming meeting, I mean, I'm

not expecting much. I think the most notable shift is probably going to be in the vote split. So in April we had hu Peel favoring a great hike. He's probably going to be joined by one or two maybe extra NPC members Meghan Green, Katherine Mann possibly, But in the rest of the committee there's really not a lot of appetite for a rate hike right now, so we

expect rates to be unchanged. I think the interesting thing to watch is how the BIW is going to manage its communications, because it has said that it has essentially talked tough. It said that it was going to do whatever was necessary to prevent the inflation from deviating from the two percent target. But we just don't know what will be the trigger for further action. If it's waiting for second round effects to show up in the data, that's wage data. It's a late cycle indicator, so it

will be late by defaults. So I think personally it already has a lot of the information on the table to deliver or not that hike. We expect a move maybe in July, but I think if the buy continues to act tough, to talk tough, sorry, but not act tough and not follow up on that, then there's a big risk to its credibility.

Speaker 3

Much to come in terms of politics and economics here in the UK in the coming days and months. Thank you so much for being with me. That is that Bloomberg's Jacob Reed and Anna Andrade really appreciate your input. We will of course have full coverage of that all important make Afield by election in England and the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision on Bloomberg platforms. I'm Caroline Hepkee here in London. You can catch us every

weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You're at the beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street, Nathan.

Speaker 2

Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to the rate decision coming up from the Bank of Japan. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. This week I think of Japan's got a great decision on the way. For more, let's get to Doug Krisner, host of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast.

Speaker 4

Thanks Nathan. The market is bracing for the outcome of this meeting, not so much because it fears an interest rate hike, but because anything less than a decisive move could create doubt about the boj's commitment to contain inflation. For a closer look, let's bring in Bloomberg's Molly Smith. Molly is a member of the Japan Korea Economy and Government team. Today she joins us from Hong Kong. Thank

you for being here. Can we begin with the fact that BOJ Governor Uwaita has been hospitalized for treatment of a liver cyst infection, and the BOJ has said that Uwaita's medical treatment means he will miss this two day meeting, and I'm curious to get your take on what his absence will do to shift the dynamic of this meeting if at all.

Speaker 8

Yeah, it's interesting. I think that the boj was maybe doing just like a bit of level setting by saying off the bat and what Otherwise, it was a fairly short statement about this, but to say that he's expected to be in the hospital for two weeks, so like, you know, not like this is going to be some swift thing and like leave any question as to if he could make the meeting next week very clear that he will not be there, but has a very competent deputy in Yumino who will be taking the reins as

well as Uchietah, so that I don't think there's any concern, and you know, the expertise of those two very experienced central bankers in their own right, So I don't think it doesn't change anything as far as like the the decision, I think that's more or less made at this point.

It's I think, you know, what everyone's really just been curious about is going to be how hawkish the press conference would be, because at this point it's almost like we're kind of looking for next week is a done deal more or less, but like, are you going to

telegraph the possibility of another hike? By the end of the year, because that's really I think where all of the ex dictations to our turning to at this point, and for the sake of the end I think will also be quite important as we're still right very much in intervention territory.

Speaker 4

Definitely stuck at around one sixty against the greenbeck. I think we heard from Uweita in the early part of June and he was talking about the spillover effects of higher oil prices leading to an upward deviation in underlying inflation. Is oil still the big problem here in terms of becoming a driver of higher inflation in Japan or there are some other things that we need to consider.

Speaker 8

It's definitely still a problem. I think that this is where Takeichi and her administration comes in, and this is really the focal point of where the extra budget is at. You know, this is all about cushioning the impact from the Middle East conflict, and that trying to continue these subsidies that have been in place for quite some time at capping the cost of gasoline or utility costs, especially as we're heading into the hot summer months in Japan.

That that's really at the heart of where this extra budget comes in.

Speaker 4

Well, you mentioned the weakness and the currency. That's obviously a big problem for inflation. How is it showing up in daily life in Japan? You would know better than I.

Speaker 8

Well, I think this is where my bias is. Somebody who's still being paid in dollars comes in and that I'm perhaps maybe a little uh, you know, not not the best person to ask on that, But yeah, for local people, of course, it's still it's incredibly frustrating, and that you know, Japan is a place where it's basically impossible to get fired, But that doesn't necessarily mean that like your your job conditions and like you know, your pay is like exactly like you know, something to really

smile and write home about that. It's still like quite I think with the wage gains that like been showing up now for the past few months, but there is a lot of concern now that as inflation is rearing back up again of that might be quite short lived. So I think there definitely is a sense of frustration at the week end for people who are obviously being paid in yen.

Speaker 4

So given the fact that the Japanese yen has been so weak, particularly against the dollar, I'm wondering whether we've seen a commensurate pullback in consumer activity, has consumer spending declined at all.

Speaker 8

I think that's where the concern is like starting to shift for sure of like when this like really will start to hit household spending that you've had like supportive wages for like the past couple of months. But sentiment is still quite poor and as like you know could tell you from covering the US economy for five years, that sentiment is hardly a perfect predictor of consumer's actual behavior, but it's definitely still worth keeping an eye on.

Speaker 4

So the other side of a weekend story is obviously it makes exports cheaper to offshore markets. Is that the case right now? Or is are things perhaps slow? And I'm thinking about the American market and the tariff story. I mean, what's the dynamic when you look at the export side.

Speaker 8

Of the story that's still quite positive? And I think this is you know, kind of similar in Korea too, where you still are kind of counting on like this AI story to really carry a lot of the growth

picture right now. And that's like exactly where you get all of these talks about k shaped economies around the world that when if you are like a supplier of anything AI chips related that that's been a really great export story, I mean for Korea especially, But then you start to wonder, like how much is that wealth being distributed? Is it really like a sustainable growth story? Is it an equitable one? And seem to be that way.

Speaker 4

So MOLLI is you're reporting on the Japanese economy, what are some of the things that you wrestle with? What are some of the narratives that that you're trying to understand?

Speaker 8

I think it's again it's still like I think I might have said this when we spoke last time, Doug, but it's still like quite fascinating coming from the US perspective of like inflation that is still in the one percent handle neighborhood, that this is like such a cause of concern. I understand that a lot of this is still more I'm like pre like, you know, concern of where inflation is going, not just where it is right now or point two. I mean, that's like that's a

scary number. Inflation is nowhere near that in Japan here. But you see like the response from you know, fiscal authorities more so than monetary at this point that like, I feel like it creates in my head. It makes you would think that situation is much more dire, and perhaps it is not necessarily downplaying it, but you just like wonder of, like what if there ever was inflation in Japan like it's been in the rest of the world, Like what kind of a response would that take.

Speaker 4

There's an entire generation in that country that has no idea that prices are capable of rising, right that they have lived with deflation or a kind of disinflation for such a long time. It's been generations. It's remarkable story. Molly, thank you so very much. It's always a pleasure. Save travels back to Tokyo. By the way, Bloomberg's Molly Smith

joining from Hong Kong. Let's stay in Hong Kong because last week the Bloomberg invest Hong Kong Summit took place, and it was there the top investors, asset managers, and policymakers gathered to discuss Asia and global market trends. It was there we had a chance to speak with Susan Chan. Susan is head of Asia Pacific at Blackrock, and she spoke with Bloomberg's Rebecca Sin.

Speaker 12

You know crypto. You guys do have the largest bitcoenty tip globally. Let's talk about crypt Hong Kong is trying to be the crypto hub. We've done a lot in tokenization. Now in Hong Kong you can buy an ETF and then switch it into gold and get gold jewelry or gold bars back. What's Blackrock doing in this space?

Speaker 7

So we have, as you mentioned, we have our crypto ETFs. We continue to see demand for that and that will continue. We are working across the region in many countries to see how we can bring that capacity into the countries. We've actually listed in Australia and we're looking at other areas that we can do more in, including Hong Kong.

Speaker 12

So, if we look at the investment opportunities across Asia Pacific, where does black Rock seed as the most compelling investment opportunities?

Speaker 7

So I think there are a few areas right. So if we look at countries because of AI, we're seeing structural shifts. Where are they taking place? Korea, for example, is one big shift. If we look at what's happening there with just the AI team playing out and taking companies like Samsung and High Necks to an incredible level. And even last week when we had the MSCI rebalance, the weight of Korea in the EM markets went from eight nine percent to now twenty two percent. These are

fundamental shifts that are not gonna, you know, revert. So that's Korea, that's Taiwan. In addition, we see Japan as a destination now because of the end of deflation. Of course that's going to take some time to play out, but there is a lot of interest in Japan. In particular, in Japan, I would say it's in the private market space, in the private credit space, in the infrastructure space, So

that's another area that we see a tremendous opportunity. And then in the Aussian countries, what we what are seeing is this need for diversification and this need to want to invest outside of home country. Part of it is driven because of the weaker currencies in the Asian countries. You know, they need to diversify to have dollar assets so that they can balance their portfolios over time, and

broadly we're seeing clients wanting to further diversify. What I would say, Rebecca, is that the traditional sixty to forty type of portfolio allocation is really underperforming, and we're finding that the need to think about that portfolio on a holistic manner across both equity fixing come private public is really critical. Today. We're also seeing that you have to look very and be very deliberate about how you select

what's in each of the categories. Is no longer that you can just go buy an active equity fund and expect to generate the returns inactive. And also there is the demographic challenges of every country in Asia and we are living longer, We have pension challenges across all and portfolios of the traditional sixty forty are not going to generate the outcomes that we're gonna need for the future.

So this is why private markets is becoming such an incredibly powerful asset class within the longer term portfolios because you need it and it fits very nicely in so

many ways. Right in terms of long term returns. You know, when you're saving for the future, you're less dependent on short term liquidity, but you need to be able to see those returns and also what you're investing in in private markets nowadays, we always look at how do we help the countries, So infrastructure, you invest in country, so it's a way for you to also, as an investor, have a part in the development of your country.

Speaker 4

That was Susan Chan, head of Asia Pacific at Blackrock, speaking with Bloomberg's Rebecca Sin. I'm Doug Prisner. You can catch us weekdays for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

Speaker 2

Nathan, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.

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