This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, Investors await another batch of earnings, and we'll tell you what to expect from Disney. I'm Tom Busby in New York.
I'm Kaylie Lines in Washington, where we're looking forward to the third Republican presidential primary debate.
I'm kallen Hecker here in London, where we're looking ahead to earnings from the Swiss banky Giant Ubs.
I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look at possible deliverables on the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanisi's trip to China.
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, the business news you need to wrap up your week in just one fifteen minute podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, The Bloomberg Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts.
Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's program with earnings. They continue with more than fifty companies in the S and P five hundred reporting this week and heading that list Disney, and for a preview, we welcome Bloomberg Intelligence US media analyst Getha Raganathan. Well, now, before we dive into Disney's upcoming earnings, let's talk about some big moves that the world's biggest media company just made this past week, announcing ESPN Bet, its official sports
betting platform. That's a partnership with Penn Entertainment. It'll begin taking bets in seventeenth States November fourteenth. What does this mean for Disney?
Yeah, it's It was a really important move by ESPN, Tom. I mean, they had kind of been putting this off for years. They'd been exploring deals with different sports betting partners, including you know, DraftKings. They finally did this deal with Pen Entertainment in August, and of course now Penn is rebranding its Barstool sportsbook as ESPN Bet. I think what it really tells us is the power of the ESPN brand.
I mean this move comes just as Disney actually disclosed standalone financials for ESPN for the very first time in its history. And what we get to know about ESPN is, you know, it is of course, you know, the top line is under pressure, but it is still a very, very profitable business. This is This is a business that is generating roughly about sixteen seventeen billion dollars in revenue, but more importantly around three billion dollars than EBITDA, So
it is definitely a cash cow. It is the biggest, one of the biggest linear TV properties for ESPN, and I think, you know, with when ESPN bet kind of goes out, you'll again get to see, you know, the power of that ESPN brand and it's going to be interesting to see how it kind of plays out for Disney. Remember, Disney is getting about two billion dollars over ten years
for the use of that ESPN name. So again, I think it really plays into, you know, kind of what the strategic direction could be for ESPN in the future.
Yeah, and another direction Disney's taking is a bigger bet into streaming by obtaining the one third stake in Hulu that it didn't already own. And what's what's the strategy there?
Yea, I think it's really important for Disney to kind of consolidate its streaming properties. Obviously it has a huge powerhouse in Disney Plus, but with Hulu it's kind of been a little bit of a head scratcher because of the sixty six percent ownership that Disney owns, but the thirty three percent that it doesn't own, which you know,
which is still kind of owned by Comcast. And so I think it's essential for Disney to kind of go ahead and acquire that remaining thirty three percent because then they kind of get to have, you know, a singular streaming strategy with all of their different products, whether it's Disney Plus, whether it's ESPN Plus, and then Hulu. And then of course the more important thing is you not only get to sell you know, an integrated product, an integrated bundle, but also you get to realize some really
huge cost and revenue savings. I mean, we're estimating about anywhere from about one to one and a half billion dollars in cost savings once they're able to kind of bring Hulu under complete control and.
Fifty million subscribers is nothing to sneeze that either.
Absolutely. Plus, remember Hulu has a very very robust advertising business. I mean, this is a business that all regenerates about three and a half billion dollars in advertising. It is the most successful streaming ad product out there. Just as everybody else is kind of trying to get into that ad based tear, whether it's Netflix, whether it's Amazon Prime,
and even Disney Plus. I mean, none of them have had the success that Hulu has had, so it's kind of really critical for Disney to build on that success that Hulu already has in the marketplace.
Well, let's turn to earnings then. For last quarter, we expect, as always, Theme Parks Cruise division having another blockbuster quarter, but there's a lot more to the company. And what are you expecting to see this coming.
Weekam, It's really interesting. So it's not really the results so much, but it's just this whole barrage of other issues that is kind of weighing on the Disney stock right now. I mean, whether it is the ESPN strategic direction as you just spoke about, or Hulu. They're even looking at getting rid of some of their linear TV assets, you know, they were looking at the ABC network, the ABC stations for instance. They're looking to get out of
their India business. So there's just so many different things. There's so much of different work that needs to be done. But I would say arguably the most important thing for them to do right now is to kind of really rev up their content engine. Right We've seen them kind of put out a whole bunch of movies, whether it was you know, Indiana Jones or Elemental that didn't really perform or live up to expectations at the global box office.
And so they're really kind of rethinking their content strategy right now, looking at how to kind of reinvigorate a lot of you know, the existing franchises, a lot of the sequels, so you know, there's a lot going on. And of course I think, you know, obviously bar Bieger has made considerable progress on a lot of the different things, whether it's restructuring, whether it's bringing down costs. They're doing
everything that they can whatever seems fixable. But again a lot of questions still remain.
And they've had talks about shedding some of those media assets as not ESPN, but as you mentioned, the Disney Channel, National Geographic, A and E Lifetime, a whole bunch of linear assets. But have we seen any progress on that. I know we've seen Byron Allen saying he made a bid, some others in talks, but is there any movement not.
Since you know, those pieces of news came out, there hasn't been any significant movement. The only thing that we've heard in the meantime is that they're really kind of looking hard at, you know, getting somebody to buy out their India business, which which could be worth upwards of ten billion dollars. So that would be a huge cash in flux in for Disney. But we really haven't seen any movement on the rest of the linear TV portfolio.
Well, let's talk about Disney also playing hardball this past quarter with Charter Communications Spectrum cable platform on a carriage deal, and Spectrum says they lost one hundred thousand subscribers. That's after a ten day blackout of all Disney channel just as including ESPN, just as college football was starting up. But could this change or maybe accelerate the implementation of an alla carte menu from cable providers.
I definitely think that deal had huge ramifications across the PATV landscape. You know, one thing that we definitely got to know is I think when we have these carriage deals come up in the future between the content owners and the PATV distributors, it is going to be a hybrid distribution model. I mean, it is going to be
a combination of both linear TV and streaming. And you bring up a very very good point in terms of, you know, does that kind of expedite this whole transition into ESPN going a la carte And I think to a certain extent it does. I mean, they've already kind of secured carriage with Charter for when that actually does happen. Now, of course, we don't know the date just yet. One of the things that is spending is the renewal of the NBA deal because they do need to secure digital rights,
you know, for the NBA game. So that will happen only sometime in twenty two, twenty twenty five, but it is definitely going to happen, and Disney has said this multiple times and yes, so you know they are trying to I mean, the PATV bundle is obviously not going to go away completely, but it is definitely losing its its, you know, relevance in some ways, at least the linear TV portion of it, as more and more consumers move to streaming.
Wow.
Well, let's shift it back then to what you're looking forward to this week in Disney earning. So all these moving parts, all these different divisions they have, what does it mean for investors? What are we expecting to see?
I think the biggest thing that we're really looking for, and I think this could be a huge catalyst for the stock if there's any language surrounding streaming profitability and how quickly Disney can kind of cut costs. Remember, they have made a lot of progress on you know, reducing streaming losses, but they still did lose about four billion dollars last year on Disney Plus, and they are still set to lose about two point seven billion dollars again
this year. Yes, they're making progress, but if they can get there faster, if they can get to a break even faster, if they can get to positive profits faster, that would bring investors a lot of cheer. We also know that they did raise their streaming prices for the second time this year. They upped the monthly price of the ad free Disney Plus by about twenty twenty five percent.
So again it would be interesting to see if there's been some increasing cancelations because of that, you know, how that has been trending, and if that really had made you know, some significant dent in terms of their you know, revenue numbers as well.
Now, one more thing I want to talk about, and that is Bob Iger, the former and president CEO. Any idea on how long he's going to stay there succession plans? Are we going to see another big drama unfold if it doesn't work out the first time?
Yeah, this has just been such a constant pain point for Disney. So we know that Bob Iger has another two years. He definitely needs those extra two years. We know Disney definitely needs the two years to kind of get there this whole turnaround in motion. The immediate thing that they do need as a permanent CFO because we know the current CFO is just temporary, So they definitely need that. You know, about the succession drama, I mean, Tom,
it's any anybody's guess is as good as mine. I mean, you know, they do have a little bit of time, you know, but we'll have to really see how it kind of plays out. I know it is top of mind for Bob Bieger, and I'm sure he has a lot of candidates that he's lined up.
Oh yeah, he's retired before, so I'm sure he's already thinking about it again. Well, our thanks to Bloomberg Intelligence US media analyst Githa Raganathin and coming up bom Bloomberg day Break Weekend Republicans get set for their third presidential debate, Will Donald Trump participate? I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm
Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program we take you to Europe and preview earnings from ubs. But first, the third Republican presidential debate taking place this Wednesday in Miami. For more, let's add to our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On. Co host Kaylee Lines.
That's right, Tom, We're gearing up for round three, the third primary debate between the Republican presidential hopefuls. It takes place in Miami this coming Wednesday, and despite it being in his adoptive home state, No, the former president and front runner Donald Trump will not be in attendance again, and a few others who had been on the stage in the prior debates will not be on this one,
partially because the threshold to qualify was raised. A candidate needs to have multiple polls that show them at four percent or higher and need to have at least seventy thousand unique donors, so that might be a bummer for some. Plus, former Vice President Pence won't be there because well, he dropped out of the race entirely last weekend.
The Bible tells us that there's a time for every purpose under heaven. Traveling across the country over the past six months, I came here to say, it's become clear to me this is not my time.
So with that, it's going to be a much smaller group on the third stage here with a preview before she makes the trip to Florida, herself as Nancy Cook, who covers national politics for US here at Bloomberg and All Things twenty twenty four. So Nancy first question of the five were expecting to be on the stage, that would be DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswami, Christi and Senator Tim Scott. Who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose?
Well, I would say Nikki Haley probably has the most to gain. She has had two really good prior debates. We've seen her poll numbers rising. A lot of donors who have become disenchanted with a DeSantis's campaign have been flocking towards her, and I do think that she has as a real chance to emerge as the alternative to Donald Trump. She's also been spending a ton of time in New Hampshire over the past six months, and we've seen her poll numbers go up in Iowa, and so
she is definitely on the rise. And if she can have a good debate, and she has shown that she is a good debater, she really could capitalize on that momentum, impress more donors, and sort of continue to reintroduce herself to the American public.
So is Nikki Hayley's gain than kind of on the other side of the coin, Ron DeSantis's loss, because you mentioned how she's been gaining in say polls in Iowa won this past week showed them tied exactly.
And the other interesting data points from that Iowa poll was that she know she's doing really well with suburban voters and she's also appealing to independence. So one hundred percent her gain is DeSantis's loss. And speaking of him, I do think that he is the one that has the most to lose. He has not managed to land a breakout performance or even really a breakout moment in the last two debates, although he has tried, and I just think his debates have been performances have been sort
of meh. And I think that if he has sort of registered a third one and Haley sort of is taking off again, donors are just going to keep going towards her. And I think the challenge for him is, you know, the donor space. The donors are sort of souring on him. They already have soured on him a bit. And at some point you have to have enough money to stay in the race for a while.
And we know he's had a bit of a money management problem over the course of his campaign as well.
Right, Like, he has taken a lot of money in and his super pack has money. But part of the problem is is that they spend a lot of money. You know, he flies private everywhere. You know, he has to charter planes to go wherever he goes. And so
that really which is his own choice. I should say it's a choice, but it's definitely they they you know, go through money more so than other folks, and so you're really trying to see, well, can he lasts not just through Iowa, but like could he last through Super Tuesday in March? And so that that's really what I'll be looking.
For So we talk about lasting through Iowa. And it's interesting that South Carolina Senator Tim Scott qualified for this debate this past week after he really has shifted his campaign strategy to essentially focus only on Iowa. I believe he's been recently quoted as saying it's Iowa or bust. Is there really any oxygen for him in this race, on this debate stage when so much of the focus is on Nikki Haley and Rond DeSantis.
Not really, he hasn't a Senator, Scott has not distinguished himself on the debate stage at all so far. I do think that he could, you know, pick up some Penns voters in Iowa. You know, Tim Scott really has made a play for evangelical voters. He really plays up his faith on the campaign trail. So Penns dropping out, particularly in Iowa where there are so many evangelical voters, could help Scott, But I don't think enough so at this point to earn the nomination.
Well, you say that Scott hasn't really been able to distinguish himself in one of these candidates who was able to at least suck up a lot of oxygen in the prior debates we've seen as viviak Ramaswami. Where is his campaign right now? I feel like we heard so much about him after the first debate because he really did kind of make a mark. He took a lot of attacks from the other candidates as well, and then I feel like it kind of faded.
Yeah, he's been out and about lately. He was up in New Hampshire. You know, for some appearances, he has spent a lot of time in New Hampshire. So he's still definitely out there campaigning. I will it will be interesting to see what he does in the debate, because you know, he did suck up so much oxygen in the first debate and people were sort of impressed by that.
But then also he annoyed people because people felt like he was sort of the kid brother, you know, harassing people and taking attention by the end of it, and so I felt like it was sort of a double edged sword there. You know, he is a very skilled debater. He was a college debater. You know, he is articulate.
The interesting thing about him is that he loves Trump, and so he sort of refuses to break from Trump, whereas the other candidates on the stage are really trying to distinguish themselves from the former president, and that's a sort of difference between them.
Or just go after them intentionally, like Governor Chris Christy has done in the past couple debates. Remember in the second debate, he looked directly at the camera and said, Trump, I know you're watching, So I'll be interested to see if we get some kind of reiteration of that in the third go around. But on the subject of the
former president, how heavily is he going to feature? He still very much as the front runner, perhaps even cemented even more so in the lead up to this, So once again unavoidable topic.
I think, an unvotable topic. I felt like in the last debate, you know, they covered so much ground. I was just reading some coverage of it to remind myself yesterday. You know, they talked about inflation and housing and China and you know, the flow of LYSID drugs over the border. They did talk about Trump, and some people went after Trump, but you know, it wasn't like everybody wanted to take down the former president, even though he's really the front
runner and loomed over the debate. His absence loomed over it. What will be interesting Wednesday night is that he is holding a counter program made event also in Florida, like not that far away from the debate.
Yeah, the two Florida men in Florida, in their home state essentially, So this will be an interesting dynamic. You mentioned there, Nancy, how a lot of ground was covered in the second debate topic wise, from inflation, to schools, to other aspects of it. One thing that hadn't happened yet though, was October seventh and the conflict erupting between Israel and Hamas. So I would imagine they're going to
face some questions about that this time around. Do we have a sense of where the different candidates are on that issue.
Well, that's a great point. And the candidates really have tried to appear all over this conflict, particularly DeSantis and Nikki Haley. So DeSantis made this big show of you know, trying like sending a plane from Florida to try to get you know, Americans, or really is bring them back to Florida and try to appear on top of it. You know, Haley has really you know, she was the UN ambassador and the Trump administration, she does have some
concrete foreign policy experience. She has really tried to appear very out front of that. So I do feel like foreign policy not just the Israeli Hamas war, but also the Ukraine war. Do you whatny mean, what this means for Iran? I feel like this will be potentially a very foreign policy heavy debate.
One of the most memorable moments of the first debate for me was Nikki Haley telling Vive Grumswami that he had no foreign policy experience, and it showed. So I wonder how he might address that this time around, because he has been in the prior debates pretty vocal about not wanting to provide further support for Ukraine, and a lot of people see these issues as tied together.
They do, and I mean that's sort of a divide in the Republican Party at this point about who wants to support Israel financially. I would say that there's more broad support for that, and who wants to keep giving aid to Ukraine. And there's a ton of Republicans who feel like the A to Ukraine shoul should stop. Ramaswami
is one of them. DeSantis has sort of gone back and forth on that and then there's a bunch of House Republicans, including the new Speaker, who are much more skeptical of ongoing a to Ukraine.
Yep, it's a hot topic on Capitol Hill, and I would imagine it'll be a hot topic on the stage this coming week as well. Safe travels to Florida. Nancy, Thank you so much. That's Nancy Cook, who helps cover national politics for us here at Bloomberg and Tom, make sure to turn the TV on on Wednesday night.
Thank you, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg sound On co host Kaylee Lines, reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington, and you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm on Bloomberg Radio and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend. We get you ready for earnings from UBS. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. We heard from all the big US banks and now Switzerland's
UBS reports earnings this week. UBS the second quarter includes one month of credit SWIEE numbers and for more, let's head to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak, europe banker Caroline Hepger.
Tom Bloomberg Intelligence expects US banks to outperform European peers. There is particular focus though on UBS, given the integration of credit swite. UBS is skewed to equities trading, which has exceeded expectations. In the aggregate. Overall shares in European financials are up about eight percent year to date, with
the ECB sticking to its higher for longer view. So Bloomberg's Critty g Gooptur and I have been speaking to our Swiss banking and wealth reporter Marin health Dema to get a preview of what to expect from UBS and on the overall banking picture. Our Bloomberg opinion columnist Paul J. Davies I began by asking Paul about why banks seem to be benefiting from higher interest rates and yet still not actually feeling a hit from higher default rates and
other issues that might affect them. We asked him why not, Well, I.
Think the I mean, the interesting thing is that the economy is still, you know, much stronger than perhaps many people you know expected it to be. All well, much stronger is maybe a bit of an exaggeration. It's not you know, turning down or slowing down quite as rapidly as we might have expected. I mean, in the US, you know, the economy is going great and banks are doing really really well. Over there, in Europe it's a
bit different. It's a lot slower. You know, Germany has started to shrink and is dragging down you know, some of the other economies. But so long as employment isn't rising, so long as people aren't losing their jobs, so long as you know, companies aren't yet you know, going bust or really struggling, then you know that then that's why
sort of banks aren't feeling the pain yet. But I mean, I think in Europe it's sort of it's starting to feel a lot more likely that we're going to see a bit more of that going into next year.
And when we do, when we do inevitably hit that potential peak RaSE, whether it's next year or the year after, whenever that is eventually hit, the burden on some of these banks to kind of find alternative revenue that isn't coming from interest income seems all the more important. What might that actually look like?
Well, I mean, you know, interest income has been it has been the thing that banks have, especially in Europe, have been forced to live without for like, you know, well over a decade already. I mean the last year or so, we've seen net interesting income rise very very rapidly, obviously with rising interest rates. I mean in the UK especially,
it's already peaked. I think you know one of the banks last week that reported that had a bit of a rough time, as Barclays, and that's because they kind of somewhat surprisingly adjusted their expected net interest margins for the full year down already, So you know, interest income maybe as interest margins at least may well have peaked already. Loan demand isn't isn't particularly strong, and in some areas
it's going to start to come down. So I mean, what they're going to replace it with is you know what they've been trying to replace it with for a decade already. And in some banks that's about what more wealth management. Others it's going to be about you desperately hoping for a pickup in investment banking, and you know, a continuation of some slightly better trends in kind of trading and markets as well.
Marian half Tamar, let me bring you in our Swiss Banking and Wealth Reporter to look, I suppose that the specifics around UBS and it's earnings, I mean, do you think that the bank is going to see the benefits from the integration of Credit Suite. I mean, this is a specific example. Some people even see UBS as a potential kind of European banking champion. Do you think we can go as far as to say that.
I think time will tell on that Brant. They still have a lot to go through with the integration, but we're are going to be seeing their earnings next this week, hopefully we'll have a bit more clarity on just how much Credit Suite is still losing in terms of profitability. They had kind of guided that they were going to be losing two billion dollars worth of profit already this quarter,
So we'll see how UBS absorbs. That key will be to see that come down over the next couple of quarters and not eat into UBS's business because in two Q for example, Credit Sweeze is loss completely wiped out UBS profit. So we need to see that calibration happen, and then you know, eventually, once they've able to they've been able to sort of fully integrate and capitalize on
Credit Squee's business. You know, that's the goal is can they be, you know, a champion in the way that a Goldman Sachs is or JP Morgan is for investment banking, but instead for wealth management.
Where does the next leg of growth actually come from? Though, I mean, Caroline just mentioned being kind of a European champion, but in terms of the international push, You've done some reporting on the Middle East.
Yeah, so UBS doesn't see it self as a European champion. It does see itself as a global champion. One of the big areas you mentioned the Middle East. They gained a lot of foothold there with the Credit Suite acquisition because Credit speech is probably one of the biggest banks there, particularly for wealth management and how that ties into doing big deals with the sovereigns and royals and large business entrepreneurs there. So that's definitely putting them ahead of the game.
But there are other large players as well, so they'll have to keep an eye on that. And then there's a geopolitical angle with that region right now, where you know they've recently had to cancel a big wealth conference in Qatar because of the conflict so whether the short term conflict will affect the long term plans is sup remains to be seen. But that's certainly putting a bit of a delay in potentially their ability to put the
pieces together with this acquisition. And then of course, you know you're looking at the US as a big wealth pool and Asia as well. It's a bit more on the back burner because of the geopolitical tensions, Paul.
That's interesting, isn't it about the regional push of the different banks. Do you see more job cuts coming for big European banks certainly as some of them try to refocus on different parts of the globe, perhaps, you know, push away from China into the Middle East or in other places. You know how it does feel like a moment where banks are repositioning somewhat globally.
Yeah, so, I mean in terms of job cuts, I mean, I guess we've had a few already, probably more from the US banks in Europe and elsewhere. I mean, I think, you know, one of the things in investment banking and trading and such like among the Europeans is that they didn't really hire quite so rapidly and quite so extensively during sort of you know, twenty twenty one and into twenty two when we had that real sort of boom
in market. So they've kind of, you know, they've got less people, fewer sort of you know, excess resources.
Now.
I mean, I think you know, Barkley's is certainly talking about finding lots of efficiencies and making a few cut We don't really know exactly where they're going to do that yet. They've been quite sort of coy about what
their plans are. But I mean, for the most part, and again especially in investment banking, one of the things that we've been seeing recently is it's actually quite a lot of hiring going on among kind of you know deal makers, really good deal makers as you know, smaller banks and you know, unexpected banks, banks like Santander for example, you know, really stuck up on sort of talent that's available that they can get their hands on now during
this sort of relatively quiet period in the hope that that means that they'll get a head start and see a lot more be able to generate a lot more revenue when markets and deal making and so on picks up once you know, interest rates have settled down or whatever is the driver that brings back that confidence to get markets going again.
I love that you mentioned Santander because of course we know they're trying to expand their their Wall Street presence as well over over in the state. Paul, very quickly, if you can talk to us about what other banks are in the rat race to kind of take up some of the market share that perhaps Credit Suite has left behind.
I guess it kind of depends on the sorts of areas that you're talking about. I mean, you know, the kind of the boutiques have been doing a lot of hiring, mainly in the US, but in Europe too. That's the kind of you know, the ever cause pg T's you know, these they are quite large boutiques nowadays. Jeffries too like kind of you know, the real sort of tear expanding
in the last couple of years. So and I think, you know, that's where some of the market share has been going in sort of you know, classic investment banking and in terms of trading. I mean, you know, it's still a long ongoing story of just you know, everything gravitating to the biggest, you know, most efficient shops. So it's just it's still just the JP Morgan's Goldman Saxes, you know, sort of taking slowly more and more share from pretty much everybody everywhere else anywhere in the world.
That was Pritty Group Tour and I speaking to Blueberg Swiss King and Wealth reportermar and Healthtamara and our Bloomberg opinion columnist Paul J. Davies. I'm Caroline Hepge here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street.
Tom Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Europe. Banker Caroline Hepgar and coming up here on Bloomberg day Break weekend, the Prime Minister of Australia heads to China and we head to Asia next. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week, Diplomacy and trade in focus. As a top government official heads to Asia for more, Let's go to Hong Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis.
Tom Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanize. He will be in China during the coming week, looking to further stabilize bilateral relations. Albanesi's visit will be the first by an Australian leader since twenty sixteen. While there have been some advances of late, China still has restrictions on Australian lobsters and beef, and there's a review on wine duties that is ongoing. One other recent positive was China released Australian journalist Chang Lei
last month. She had been detained in China for almost three years under espionage related charges. Joining us for some insights here on how to gauge success or failure for the Albanesi trip is Ben Westcott, Bloomberg Government reporter in Canberra. So, first, Ben, before we get into some of the teeth about overall relations in indications of progress in areas like beef and lobsters that may have been done behind the scenes that hasn't been made public.
In recent wait. So I'd say is that Australia has been highlighting the lobs to issue more which suggests that that might be an easy win for both China and Australia. A quick announcement, as they say, out of this trip, and obviously much less complicated than the wine sanctions which are currently under review, more than the release of the remaining Australian in China right at Young Hang June, who's
been in prison there for more than four years. So you know, in comparison to that, a win on lobsters or a win on beef would be a much more more easy thing away with them to sell.
And you mentioned that they're setting aside for the moment the WTO wine dispute and China has this review underway, does the Prime Minister does the government generally expect a positive outcome on that?
I mean generally I think there is there is hope that that will come out well. But what people have been saying is that this isn't as simple as the barley tariffs. So the protest we saw for the barley tariffs earlier this year was that once the WTO report had been handed down, we then saw Chinese and Australians review the report, which was then led to a review of those tariffs by the Chinese side. They're eventual lifting and that took three months with a one month extension.
Now already even straight off the bat, these wine tariffs have been given a five month review, and I've been told, you know, off the record, that it's much more complicated than the Bali tariffs were. So there's good hope. Treasury wine stocks have gone up, but no one's counting any chickens at this point.
Will Prime Minister Albanzi have both the carrot and stick in his arsenal on this trip?
Prim minist abaniniti faces a really tough challenge in this trip. He has to step the line between not insulting his hosts but not giving any reason for any people watching in the US or any sort of conservatives back home who are watching, to gain any sort of fears about the relationship with China. What he says repeatedly is that Australia and China will cooperate where they can, disagree where they must. And I think that it's going to be the trip, This is going to be the angle he
follows for his whole trip. I had someone say to me, you know, when you're walking down the Great Hall of the People towards changing Ping, it can be easy to get or so it's going to be very interesting to see how he handles this very delicate balancing act exactly.
Not the easiest time to bring up human rights or conditions in Shinjong.
I mean exactly, and I mean the one thing that has characterized Australian diplomacy is since May twenty twenty two, when the Central Left Labor government took power, was that
they've done all that behind closed doors. With a few exceptions, they've generally kept criticism of China's human rights abuses behind closed doors, hidden meetings with Premier League At Chuang and President of Chijing Ping And as a result, I mean, or possibly as a results, possibly a result the other things they have actually had those meetings which had eluded previous governments who've been more vocal. So there has been one major difference in Australia's diplomacy in recent years.
Ben, Thank you so much, Ben Westcott, Bloomberg Government reporter in Ken. I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. You can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg day Break Asia beginning at six am in Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street tom.
Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Asia host Brian Curtis. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning, five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with US. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now