Thanks so much for joining us on the special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday. I'm Nathan Hager, and coming up this hour will the Fed cut rates this year? And if so, when and just how strong is the US economy? Will have a roundtable discussion with Michael McKee, our International Economics and Policy correspondent, and Bloomberg Economics Chief US economist Anna Wong. Plus, Memorial Day unofficially kicks off the summer. Are there any
good travel deals to be had? We'll ask the founder of the Points Guy, Brian Kelly. But first let's take a look at the direction of travel for the stock market. Equities hit all time highs earlier this month. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed forty thousand for the first time. Plenty of analysts are racing to adjust price targets for the broader indexes. So what's in store for the rest of the year. Let's discuss with two expert
voices on this market. Alisia Levine is this head of investment strategy at bny Melon, along with Brian Levitt, the global market strategist at Investco. Thanks to both of you for being with US. Of course, stocks have certainly defied expectations from the start of the year. So Alisha, I'll start with you, where do you see the momentum right now?
So I think the momentum is really coming from the microside, which is earnings, and then of course the macro side, which is the data are holding in better than feared twelve months ago, six months ago, and the US economy is not overheated, and it's slowing down in a way that allows the FED not to have a hiking bias, and so therefore we just think it's a pretty good
place to be. There is the possibility of volatility around the election, of course, and other hot data prints we might get on the inflation side, which really is the most important thing right now for where yields go. But other than that, we think the overall picture looks very good. So we'd say the negative side of sort of left tails, not that they're nothing, but they're not as big as
they were. Let's say call it a year ago. And so we look at the world and we say, this kind of feels a little bit like the nineteen nineties, where good enough growth rates have normalized. We can grow from here and the economy is humming.
Let's take that point, Brian. Looking like the nineteen nineties we saw a bubble back, then, is this a market that could see a bubble start to burst.
Well, the late nineteen nineties we saw a bubble, so I think what was being referenced there is perhaps more the mid nineties we did see the green span fedback then raise interest rates in the mid nineties by a pretty significant amount. The market didn't love it, although I don't think an eight nine percent decline is anything terrible.
But when it became clear that the Federal Reserve could back off, that the economy was still strong, the proverbial soft landing of that, it ended up being a very nice number of years for markets beyond it. So I don't think Alicia was mentioning it to suggest that this is a market that's in a bubble. More that there's a nice setup for markets to continue to climb higher.
And if it is nineteen ninety four nineteen ninety five, you know investors would would then be quite happy over the next few years.
Of course, Alicia, you set up a pretty strong bullish outlook there with the setup just now, how much further upside do you see for this market, what's going to be the catalyst for where things go for the second half.
So I think the catalyst clearly has to come from the earning side. I think the excitement over AI and sort of fellow travelers, so the hyperscalers of Magnificent seven plus the chip beneficiaries, plus the power of the utility beneficiaries. That feels like it's well locked into place, and it's not an unknown, right, It's not an unknown. So I think you have to have earnings come in from the rest of the market. I think it's clear that another
hot inflation print could cause volatility here. We would expect something like that. I think the models for predicting inflation are clearly not working and that's okay, But it does look like we're sort of in this disinflationary period with some hiccups here or there, so that could cause some volatility in the bond market. Overall. What we've been saying is the FED pivoted in December. We don't think the FED pivots from the pivot. So in terms of rate
cuts this year, we've always said less and later. We're really at one cut for the year that would be sufficient to keep the market moving higher into the end of the year. And let's just point out, Nathan, you know, we're in a re election year and administrations tend to do everything they can to get reelected, and I think
we see that with some fiscal support. So I think it's just very hard if you just put a timeline on this, even though we're as strategist Brian knows well, you don't put a number and a date in the same sentence. I just think, yeah, I just think that it's just hard to get that deep sell off from here into the end of the year in a re election year with the setup that we have of two to three percent growth and inflation that possibly sticky but still on the downward trend.
I want to pick up to something that Alicia talked about at the beginning in terms of companies meeting their expectations for earnings. We've gotten through most of the earning season, Brian, and you've seen a lot of these companies put out pretty strong forecasts, some pretty positive outlooks in terms of where they see things going. Do you think companies are going to be able to meet or exceed their earnings expectations heading into the second half. What's it going to take for.
Them to do it?
It's so far they've been able to. And this was, again, to your point, another good earning season in a time when you know, many investors a year or two ago, we're thinking a recession was coming and we're contemplating what a decline in earnings could look like. So it's an economic backdrop, both in the US and globally that continues
to be supportive for corporate earnings. The irony in all of it, Nathan, is that for all the focus on the FED, and for all the focus on will they or won't they and by how much and when the reality is that good nominal growth and no rate cuts is just buying for markets, and in fact perhaps maybe preferable to weaker growth and lower rates, which is what a lot of investors had been expected.
Speaking with Brian Levitt, Invesco's global market strategist and Alicia Levine, the head of investment strategy at bny mellon interesting point and had just their Alisha about the setup still being positive for companies even if we don't see a FED rate cut this year. Do you share that view? Is there really that much of an expectation from companies that they FED needs to deliver in order for the momentum to continue for stocks.
So for thirty percent of the SMP, which is about the top ten stocks, they don't need to borrow. So what the FED does in some ways is not relevant to their business models. Where you feel it whether the FED cuts or not, is as you do go down cap into small cap. You know a lot of the small cap index over half has floating rate debt that's due much sooner than the fixed rate debt that the larger cap companies took out in twenty twenty and twenty
twenty one when rates were near zero. So that's why the rustle, for instance, is still fifteen percent below it's all time high in twenty twenty one, because you do have some business models that could be threatened here. Overall, the SMP is more resilient to what the FED decides to do with rate cuts if the FED stays here, which is very possible. A lot of the debt in the SMP is fixed rate and that maturing until twenty
thirty or later. That's just a structural change. And so I think this kind of obsession with the FED is nice, but to Brian's point, you know, when the FED cuts many times, it means that the economy is weak, we have higher unemployment, and we're headed into a recession or we're already there. So I think most of us as strategists would take you know, five to five and a half percent nominal growth with you know, a FED funds
rate meeting that more or less. And don't forget earnings are nominal and the SMP reflects nominal growth, and so you are in a sense already participating in all those parts of the market that you may be a little worried about with higher rates, as long as your companies don't have to go out and tap the debt markets.
Bran, I want to pick up on another point you had earlier about looking beyond the US market. We've been talking about the resiliency of the US economy, but the potential as well for some other opportunities outside the US. Where are you looking? Where are you advising clients to put their attention when it comes to x US investments?
Yeah, and investors clearly have preferred the United States for a variety of reasons. The catalysts that tend to unlock the value in other parts of the world will either come from economic surprises or will come from policy changes. So if you look at places like China, or in Europe or in the UK, where valuations are more reasonable, are their catalysts, and you're seeing policy that likely moves ahead of where we are in the US in terms of supporting the economy. You've seen trying to take some
steps now to support their property sector. The European and UK central banks may be lowering rates ahead of time. But what you're also seeing is those parts of the world that were hit harder over the last year or so are now starting surprise to the upside a bit, while the US surprise in disease in terms of whether we're outpacing economic expectations are coming down a little bit. So it's a sea change. It's not necessarily one where we say go out and you know, swing wildly to
move from the US to international. But if you believe we're in the recovery phase of the cycle in those parts of the world, then you would want to increase exposure, will help the evaluation of the portfolio, diversify some of your dollar exposure. And if we're right that those economies are recover intends to be a good backdrop for their markets.
Now, Alisha, I'm curious where you're looking for surprises. I mean, we've got wars still happening around the world, We've got a US presidential election coming up in the fall, We've got a UK election coming up in the summer. What's got your attention?
So is this the question about what makes me worry at night?
What makes you worry at night?
Alicia n So, Look, I think the geopolitical risks are very real and heightened in a way that you know, typically markets don't really factor in geopolitical risk for more than a few weeks at a time, I think, you know, and typically it's through the commodity cycle. So you know, Ukraine, Middle East clearly oil and in the Ukraine case a fertilizer and for food that could be still at risk there,
but the market knows that. And in fact, you know, WTI oil prices have actually come down from the peak when there was probably a ten dollars premium in oil prices for a hot war in the Middle East. I think, you know, maybe there's some volatility around the election, and I would say this, I think the best thing that can happen for all of us, is that we wake up or we go to sleep with a fifty three forty seven win for whatever party it is, and it's a clear winner, and I think that would be the
best case for the market regardless. I think if we have one of those where it's really too close to call and may take weeks to find out, that's not great, and that won't be great for the market either. And so that's just I think probably the risk out there. The other thing is the deficit. Of course, neither party is really serious about addressing this, and in fact, both platforms have enormous fiscal spend attached to their political promises.
So I'd say that's something we have to keep an eye on.
Our Thanks to Alisha Levine, head of investment strategy at bn Y Melon and Invesco Global market strategist Brian Levitt. And coming up next, we'll take an even closer look at the economy and whether the Fed will cut interest rates before this year is out. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. Welcome back to this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for Memorial Day. I'm Nathan Hager. Thanks for joining us. Now we want to
turn from the stock market to the economy. Twenty twenty four began with high expectations for interest rate cuts. So far we haven't had a one. So what will it take for the Fed to finally pull the trigger and will they even do it? To dive into those questions, we have convened a special economic roundtable. Anna Wong is with US, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, along with Michael McKee, International Economics and Policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio
and Television. Thanks to both of you for being with us. And I'll start with you, Mike, because you talk with these FOMC voters like all the time. So what are they telling you in terms of policy?
Basically, their story hasn't changed. They're waiting for inflation to show signs that it is going to continue on down to two percent. Now, one important thing to remember is they're going to start cutting interest rates before they get to two percent. They've made that clear. But right now they're not seeing any progress at all since basically inflation
has stalled out. So it's going to take a little while, several more months, and then we'll see whether they get anything this year or not, a lot of them moving out sort of on the curve, and more and more of them talking about end of the year as a possible first timing for a rate cut.
Several more months. And of course you worked as an economist in the Federal Reserve, and it's so funny because at the beginning of the year there was all this talk about maybe six or seven interrast rate cuts. Now there's no way we can get that the way the calendar is going. So what do policymakers need to see to get that assurance that they can start the interest rate cutting cycle.
Yeah, So, you know, in the beginning of the year, when the market was pricing in one hundred and seventy base point of right cuts, that was a little bit overdoing it. But even then time, given the inflation trajectory, a fair assessment, given the you know, inertial tailor rule, which the Fed has followed quite closely over the past two years, is that one hundred to one hundred and
twenty five bases cut was reasonable. And now we are down to the model, the tailor rule saying that a fair assessment would be forty basis point of cuts, and that would be the result from a reasonable range of inflation numbers. And the reason why that rule has come down from one hundred and twenty five to now forty is because mostly because of the inflation data as you suggested. So I think the expectation that the Fed will cut
once or twice this year is still fair. And whether it would be more like one cut or two cut, it depends on whether inflation is going to be closer to ending the year closer to two point six percent or is it three percent. So in our forecast, we do expect inflation to be drifting back up from a low of two point seven percent mid year to closer
to three percent by the end of the year. But we still do think the Fed would cut because unemployment is we think it's going to rise about four percent by the end of this year.
Mike, from what you're hearing from Fed officials, are they feeling that pressure to deliver the first cut before the year is out? I mean, it does get harder to make that move once we get closer to an election, doesn't it.
They would argued no, and past history supports that idea that the election doesn't make any difference to them. They'll do what they think they should do when the time comes, But at this point they don't seem to be feeling any pressure because the economy is not demanding it. They look around and they see where unemployment is well below four percent, and they see the economy growing basically at potential, and they don't think they need to cut rates at
the moment. The biggest concern they have going forward is that if inflation does start to fall again, then you get a rise in real rates and that would tighten conditions even more. So maybe they don't want that. The other side of that coin is do they need to cut rates because the economy slows so much and that's not in anybody's forecast there at the moment.
Well, so what is the forecast and when it comes to the path for disinflation. Obviously we did see that little bit of a bump the first quarter of this year, things, as you said, have been stalling out. Where do you see the disinflationary path going, if at all, into the second half.
Typically in the beginning of the year you do have these unfavorable seasonal factors, and for this year, the unfavorable seasonal factors for inflation lasted beyond February, which is a little bit unusual. But then if the past is a guide, from here on out to the end of summer should be a favorable period for disinflation. So our forecast, and I think the Fed's forecast, is for the year over year core PC deflator to continue to edge down from
now to mid year. Possibly by August we will see a core pc E twelve months change of two point seven or two point six percent. But our forecast for the second half is more pessimistic because then all these favorable factors we see from here to end of summer will reverse and then it gets harder. And that's when we also think that the base effects of inflation would turn against all these measures, because that's because last year we called last year, the second half of last year
was very favorable for inflation. So you have this low base effect which tends to push up the year over year in the second half, and this is why we think that at the end of the year core PCE deflator would be closer to three than mid twos.
Speaking with Anna Wong, the chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, and our Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, Michael McKee. Mike, you've been talking, of course to FED officials. We've heard from Raphael Bostik of the Atlanta FED talking about how there are active discussions about where the neutral rate is, the rate at which policy neither slows nor grows the economy. What's the thinking about where that stands right now?
Well, it's becoming more important because now we're getting into the possibility of rate cuts, and so the question for everybody is once they do start, how far do they cut? And I think most FED officials would tell you they don't really know. They don't think they will be going back anywhere near the zero rates that we had for a while. But how fast can the economy grow right now? That's not clear. And unfortunately, the neutral rate is something
that's not observable as an individual number. It's something better seen in hindsight. But they're looking at the inflation rate and they're looking at the growth rate, and they're thinking, maybe we have seen the economy move up its neutral rate, but would that last. As Anna said, forecasts are we're going to see a cooling as we go along. So
they don't really have a good number yet. They're thinking in terms of somewhere around four percent, maybe a little higher, a little lower, but it's going to depend on the conditions in the economy at the time, and that's going to be several rate cuts down the road, So we probably won't get a neutral rate view until sometime next year.
And when it comes to conditions in the economy, And is there some thinking within the FED or among economists like yourself that there may need to be some further damage to the economy to get inflation to the fed's target in terms of the labor market, in terms of goods and services.
I think from reading the community public communications of the FED, it's pretty clear to me that the FED has moved away from that view that you do need damages to the labor market to bring down inflation. In fact, the confidence within the committee has been building that you don't need that They are banking on productivity growth and also immigration to provide support to the economy without introducing inflationary forces.
And there's a lot of discussion as well about whether the two percent inflation target even makes sense. I mean, we hear from the likes of muhammedel Air saying that that level is arbitrary. Mike, why is it so important for this FED to get to that two percent target?
It's basically a credibility issue for them. One of the things that was pointed out at the Atlanta FED conference last week was that during the great inflation of the nineteen seventies and eighties, inflation expectations soared along with the inflation rate, and that didn't happen this time, and so they fed credibility. People believe the FED will do what it takes to bring inflation doubt, and they have the two percent target, so they need to stick to that.
They need to make sure people understand that they're going to fight inflation, they're going to bring it down. We may never actually get there because they will start cutting before they get to two percent, and if inflation gets sticky at two point three percent, I don't think they're going to risk damaging the economy by trying to push even harder. But they want people to know they're going
to follow up. Now. They start later this year, a review of their policy framework probably taken another year, and so sometime in twenty twenty five or early twenty twenty six, they may change their view. Right now, I didn't find any support I haven't found any support for changing it
to a higher number, at least firmly. But there are people who are thinking about it that this world we're going into a post pandemic is going to have a little bit faster inflation on a regular basis, but they're not ready to commit to anything yet.
Well, what do you think, Anna, is a two percent inflation target still achievable? I mean, it's taken quite a while just to get to where we are right now.
Yeah, I think you know. Our view is that inflation is sliding down the nonlinear and steep part of the Phillips curve or the beverage curve, and we're about getting to that part where it starts to get harder to generate a percentage point of disinflation, which is what we
need right now. We need another percentage point of disinflation, and we won't know exactly whether that's right, whether we're indeed stuck at three percent inflation until twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, And as Mike said, and that's when only the sentiment today is that we're the FED is definitely sticking with the two percent mandate, price stability mandate, but in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six, it
will be very clear whether inflation is indeed stuck. So from my view, I've looked at arranged models and also looked at bottom up way of looking at inflation forecasts. I do think that there's a hard mile to inflation.
It might not be a whole percentage point, but it's very likely that inflation core PCE deflator could be stuck at two point seven percent or above, and the Fed might decide to live with it, even though verbally they would say they are still trying to achieve the two percent, because it is very hard to get from two point seven to two percent.
Now, we've certainly seen how hard it's been just to get to where we are right now. Thank you to the both of you for joining us. Michael McKee, international economics and Policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio and Television, and Anna Wong, Chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Up next, If you're still looking for travel deals this summer, we'll check in with the Point Sky Brian Kelly on this kickoff weekend for summer getaways. It's thirty seven minutes past
the hour. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks again for being with us on this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager. US markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday, but the roads, rails, and airports most certainly are not. Of course, Memorial Day marks the official kickoff of summer travel season, and to hear the folks at Triple A tel It, this could be one of the busiest travel weekends since they started keeping track
more than two decades ago. That pent up demand post COVID could be ready to burst big time, even with inflation and interest rates sticking with us through these warm months. So who better to help us stretch that travel dollar as we make our way through summer than the Points guy himself, Brian Kelly is with us. Brian, thanks for taking time out for what I am sure is a very busy time for you.
Of course, thanks for having me.
So you were calling last summer the summer of domestic travel. This year, you say it's going to be the summer for international travel, even with prices where they are.
Yeah, you know when you actually look at the prices, And I've been booking a lot of European trips this summer, especially in business and first class. There's actually a lot of great deals out there. There's an interesting dynamic going on in the marketplace. You know, the airlines have actually upgauged a lot of routes, adding more capacity to Europe than we've seen before. There's about three hundred thousand more seats that the US carriers will have to all of
Europe this summer. So it's had an interesting impact on prices. We have not seen the spike in prices that would
go along with the increase in demand. We're also seeing now more increased competition from lower cost carriers, and you know, broadly speaking, you know, two summers ago, especially when the world really started to open up, we were seeing you know, not as much demand, but such less capacity that prices were you know, I was seeing routinely five, six or seven thousand dollars round trip business cost tickets from the
US gateways to Europe. This summer, I'm looking at three thousand dollars four thousand dollars fares from the West Coast for majority of the summer, and some airlines like British Airways, are even having four thousand dollars for first class round trip to Europe, which I'm kind of shocked by.
Yeah, not terrible. So the airlines are providing the capacity. What has you thinking that they're going to be able to fill those seats.
It's an interesting question, and I think why we are seeing prices not through the roof. You know, there are certainly some routes that you'll see increase pricing, specifically Paris Paris. The thing about Paris you have to worry about the summer. I was actually just before chatting with you, looking at a June trip. You know, the Olympics start at the end of July, so you know, really end of July
and August Paris. You know, gird, you're loin prepared to pay through the notes, but she was looking, you know, flights. Flights in June were much higher than normal. But what you really need to look out for is hotels, man especially luxury hotels. This is where I'm seeing real inflation.
Stay.
We're seeing those twenty twenty three numbers, twenty twenty two when hotel rates. You know that the average luxury hotel used, you know, seven hundred bucks used to be able to get you a nice room at a four seasons. You know that's now seventeen hundred and in Paris. If you like luxury hotels in Paris, the new norm is twenty five hundred to three thousand euros a night, wow for those top twenty hotels. And it is and it seems
to be persistent all summer long. So this is the summer where it behooves you to look outside the box. There's still plenty of affordable, beautiful destinations in Europe that are not a Malfy coast south of France, you know, Greek islands.
Yeah, I mean some of those places obviously are going to be high demand, not just because of the Olympics in Paris particularly, but we've had the Taylor swift Eras tour going there as well. It makes you think that maybe August early September might be the best time frame to go to the City of Lights. But what other desks to nations are you looking at where we might be able to stretch that kind of strong dollar that we still have given where rates are right now.
Absolutely, the US dollar is still a beast no matter how you look at it. You know, I was just in South Africa. That's a perennial favorite for me. You know, of course, you notice, you know, with Argentinas, you know, even though they're trying to turn their currency around, huge value to be had. Now, just note, obviously our summer is their winter. But you know, winter in Buenos Aires is not like winter in New York City or Chicago.
So you can still have incredible travel experiences, less crowds than you know, going to Europe in peak summer months. And I'll just tell my fellow Americans out there, haven't been to Europe in a while, you know, especially with sweltering heat records constantly. You know, I foresee that again this summer. I was in Florence two summers ago when it was in the nineties. And when I tell you these, a lot of these European cities are not equipped for
the level of heat they're about to see. And you see restaurants, you know, the air conditioning units petering out and it's just hot on the street. So be careful booking, you know, in Europe peak dates in July and August, because you're not going to get the greatest experience. Also in August in Europe, a lot of the locals leave, so you're going to be paying a premium to be sweating with fellow Americans, which sort of defeats the purpose of going to get the European experience.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's pretty difficult, a pretty difficult time all around in Europe anyway. I mean, given the way the geopolitics are in some ways and a lot of what you mentioned, I mean we've seen like wildfires last year. I mean, are you thinking, like, other than some of those more obvious events that are happening in Europe right now, that maybe some of the more off the beaten path travel destinations might just be a better bet all in all, given the what the dynamics are in Europe right now.
Absolutely, And this is I think a great time to talk about travel insurance too. I've never really been a big travel insurance person. You know, most of the time with our credit cards, you get basic coverage if you know, something crazy happens, your flight gets canceled even now due to weather delays. You know, you can get good protections
if you've got a premium travel credit card. But what people don't realize is, you know, for example, Mali, you know when Mawy had those wildfires that appeared out of nowhere, You're not going to get refunded from your hotel. Most of the hotel chains did not refund their customers, and I actually think it's a wake up call for consumers.
When you're buying travel, it does not come with protections from these events, and you should not expect, especially if you're staying at a boutique hotel, you should not expect that that small hotel owner who's going to go through a horrible financial time to also underwrite the risk for you and your room. You know, I think in America we've got this sense of well, if I don't get what I paid for, I deserve a refund. But in these cases, especially strikes, strikes are happening all over Europe.
When a strike happens, you know, even your credit card may not come through. So more than ever, paying five to ten percent of the total cost to your trip and travel insurance to give you the peace of mind. And now to your point, going to some of the more far flung destinations where you're going to get a better experience. I love Africa. Africa in the summer, you know, certain African safaris, the great migration happens in June. I've
done that in Tanzania and Kenya. Absolutely spectacular these are the trips where you might want to invest in that comprehensive travel insurance. And you know, especially if you get sick. I just you know, did a piece on you know, I got food poisoning recently. Luckily it wasn't so bad.
But I've had thousands of comments from my followers who have said travel insurance is a godsend when you're abroad because most American insurance, you know, health insurance does not cover you abroad, and the credit card coverage is shaky. So my final point on travel insurance I'm not paid by any one travel insurance company is never get it through your airline or hotel. Always go. There are sites like ensure my Trip where you can compare and contrast
and price match policies. But never just buy a policy one off from a travel provider because it's easy in the point of sale. Always look, but you'd be surprised. Even if you get laid off from your job, travel insurance will let you cancel your trip and get all your money back.
Yeah, to your point about the Africa experience, You've been doing a lot of reporting at Bloomberg here as well about how a lot of countries in Africa are starting to invest a lot more in sort of that luxury safari experience as well. But what you're talking about higher hotel prices advising people to get insurance, The costs start
to add up, don't they. So I mean, how do you stretch that travel dollar if you're going to be running into you know, pretty elevated once you get to your destination.
Absolutely so, say you're still hell bent on going to the Amalfi coast, right, I guess a lot of people are most of those hotels now because there's such high demand. Not only are you paying two thousand euros a night or more, they're non refundable months in advance. And this is a risky game. So well, first off, and that's where I would say travel insurance that paying the extra five percent to give you the peace of mind. Say you your spouse kid gets sick, it's covered, You'll get
that money back. That's when it really starts to make sense. But back to your point of how to save, there are still incredible, incredible points deals. Air France has been the star of the show this year. If you ask any frequent flyer in the know, Air France has released more fifty thousand point business class awards from major US cities across the country to Europe, you can find fifty
thousand dollars one way business class flights. And when you if you compare that to the American airlines, you know, Delta, their partner for the same flights, will often charge five hundred thousand miles for four hundred thousand. So there's been this huge inflation in the US airline currencies. The international airlines are where the tremendous value is. I love air you know the Flying Blue program. It's a transfer partner
of all the major credit card companies. So my one tip there too is don't just put all your miles with one airline. I know, even if you fly the one airline, you want to be loyal. What happens is when you just get that co branded card for that car, you're banking up in a currency where it could you know,
the inflation could go through the roof. And actually, the US government just had a hearing on airlines being naughty, and you know they're issuing these frequent flyer miles and then just continuously, year over years, they'll double the amount of miles you need to go to Europe the international programs are where it's at, and they often have transfer bonuses from AMX and Chase to Flying Blue to Aeroplan
to Virgin Atlantic. So become an expert on these foreign freaking flyer programs, and there's a whole new crop of tools that will you know, like when you buy a flight, Google flights, Google dot com, slash flights is where you know you should go to start your flight search. When you're going to pay for a flight, we'll say you've got a lot of different AMX and Chase points in delta. It's really confusing because historically you have to go to each and every one of those websites to see what
they're offering for points. But now there's a site called point me. It's so the website's point dot me and it's basically like Google flights, but for your award miles. It'll pull in a ton of options for all the different airlines so you can compare and contrast, Oh, hey, maybe I should use my United miles on this flight, or actually American has a much better deal. It'll pull it all together on one screen, which can help you get the best value on flights. So when you have
to shell out for hotels. Hey, look, if at least the flights are free, that is a tremendous savings for your travel budget.
Thanks for this, Brian, really great having on with us.
Thanks for having me, Safe travels, and to you.
That's Brian Kelly, The Point Sky with us on Bloomberg Daybreak. Our thanks to The Point Sky founder Brian Kelly, and we also want to thank BN y Melon's Alicia Levine, Investoes, Brian Levitt, and Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Anna Wong. Thanks as well to you for joining us on this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's fifty nine minutes past the hour. I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us. The top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now