This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our day Break anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, the job market and what it means.
For all of us. I'm Top Busby in New York.
I'm Stephen Carolyn London, where we're looking ahead to a meeting of some of Europe's top economists and business people in France at a time when yours own growth is stuttering.
I'm Doug Prisner the challenges of developing artificial intelligence in China.
I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Next week we get a fly on the wall view of the last FED meeting.
Coming up, we'll look ahead to the release of FED minutes. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg Eleve Them three own New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business app.
You.
I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the June jobs report coming out this coming Friday. Joining me to talk about what's expected and what it all means. Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy editor Michael McKee. Now, before we talk about June, let's start by looking back at May's data. There was three hundred and thirty nine thousand jobs added, way more than forecast, a sign of a
pretty healthy labor market. Gains some professional business services, government, healthcare, and very important to the Fed, we saw wage growth slow the same time inflation started to pull back.
It was a confusing report because the establishment survey, the three hundred and thirty nine thousand, was so strong, but on the household side, we lost jobs. The household survey produces the unemployment rate, and it jumped from three point four percent to three point seven percent. So the Fed's going to really be watching this coming month to see
if that same dynamic plays out. Right now, the forecast for unemployment is unchanged at three point seven percent, but we'll have to see when we get to next Friday what the final number is and how it compares with job creation.
And what kind of raw number were you looking at in ads.
Well, here's the funny part. We've had a lot of strong economic data over the last week, and people have been talking about how the economy is in better shape than thought, but you kind of have been marking down their forecast for job growth. We're at one ninety five now. Earlier in the last week we were at about two twenty.
So I'm not sure why the pessimism, but people are thinking that maybe the trend is finally breaking and then we will get lower job creation, although that's still very strong, lower job creation and slightly higher unemployment, even if we're seeing strength in other areas of the economy.
But that's something right in the fed's playbook, right, that's what they're hoping to see.
That's what they're hoping to see.
The Fed's been hoping that we would a slow down in consumer spending, a slowdown in therefore business investment, and then a slow down in hiring, and the fewer people that get jobs, that's less money that goes into spending in the overall economy, cools. It's the standard playbook for central banks and it just hadn't worked yet.
Well.
Speaking of the FED, just this past week we saw Chairman Powell was in Madrid at an ECB event, and he said some things that really rattled investors.
A strong majority of committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times by the end of this year. Inflation pressures continue to run high, in the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go.
That is a mouthful.
Well, the FED had forecast at their last meeting that we would see the possibility of two more rate increases, and he seems to be underlining that the market had only priced in one, so he seems to be interested in pushing them to add to that. And we did see the swaps market react and at least start to price in the idea of two. But remember the FED has been saying all along it's very data dependent, and we haven't got a lot of employment or inflation data yet.
We will be getting that, and so for the FED, it's a question of do they really have to carry through with two rate increases or will the data give them an out maybe only do one. And the market is kind of thinking the same way.
And we've still got four weeks before the next meeting that they have, and then six weeks after that.
Right in September.
Yes, so we will see one more CPI report before the FED meeting, and of course next Friday is the Jobs report, and those will give us a pretty good idea of where we are at the moment. The question is what's the long run view, And since we only get one report, it's going to be harder for the Fed to make a forecast that works for the month of August, taking the month of August off and then
not until September. Having another meeting, we will have j Powell and Jackson Hall, so if he has something to say, we'll hear it. But the Fed itself won't be voting again. So you're right, it's going to be an interesting vacuum for the market to fill.
But so far, what the Fed has done took a while, but it appears to be bearing fruit.
Well, they have brought down the inflation rate and it's about halved, but it's considered the low hanging fruit. I mean, we saw energy prices in particular falloff, and gasoline prices. Now the question is is they're embedded inflation in the core rate of inflation. That's going to be hard to eradicate. Our companies raising prices because they still have to pay more for their inputs. Are they raising prices because they can?
People are used to it? Is labor still an issue in terms of having to make up the cost of additional wages for people. So we're not out of the woods. And the FED thinks that it's going to be much harder to get that last two percent wrung out of inflation than the first six percent.
Yeah, and Chairman Pal said, it's not this year, it's not next year. It looks like it's going to be twenty twenty five hopefully.
Yeah, that's a they're being conservative because they have been fooled and it's been much stickier than they thought. The Fed is thinking twenty twenty five, we are going to see inflation come down because the whole rent question, we've talked about a lot that it takes a long time for housing costs to get into and out of the inflation data. They're going to that's finally going to hit
and we're going to see some drops in inflation. But then does that continue And that's something they don't know because we've started to see some home price and rent increases and now may take another six months or a year to go into the data, but it's going to be out there and it'll keep them farther away from two percent if that indeed happens.
Well, Mike, I want to shift gears a little bit here and talk about the kinds of jobs that are going away, the kind of jobs that are we're seeing gains in the last couple of months, we've seen, or so far this year, hundreds of thousands of tech jobs that have been some of the big techies. Now we all know that they overhire during the pandemic when things
nobody knew which way we're going to go. But as you have said before, every company is a tech company, so a lot of those people are finding work, you know, with AI. It looks like things are shifting that in that marketplace for those jobs.
Tech jobs.
Yeah, I'm not smart enough to know how easily you can transition to an AI job from another kind of tech job. And of course when we talk about tech, it's a very large category, everything from hardware to software and all different kinds of software. But it does look like that category has stabilized because people can find more jobs. The thing that was slow was temporary hiring because usually
when you're seeing an economic ramp up. Companies add people on a temporary basis because they're worried about whether or not they'll have the businesses to sustain hiring them, and that turned around last month we saw some gains in temporary hiring. Healthcare has always been a last couple of years, has been a very strong category, and that saw gains. As we get older, we need more healthcare, and so we're looking to see where the weakness is going to come.
It has been in manufacturing. Manufacturing was losing jobs for a bit, but now it seems to have added not at a huge pace, but we're starting to see more production and more hiring there. And construction. I know you've been following this. Construction jobs have really surprised. So it's the housing market. But builders have been putting up houses as fast as they can and they need construction workers.
And now we're seeing the impact of some of the measures Congress passed in the last year, the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act that incentivize constructing, especially for green energy new facilities, and we're seeing a huge amount of construction spending on business facilities, which means they need more people as well. So construction, which is normally very affected by interest rates is not confounded and that's another surprise.
So none of this is working out as the previous models would have suggested.
Another thing you talked about manufacturing, and this is timely because the UAW this month in July is talking to all of Detroit's Big three about a new contract. And boy has that industry changed over the last three or four years dramatically Because they know the UAW. Electric cars do not have the components that gas engine cars have and therefore do not need the same amount of workers putting it together to assemble those cars. So they've got their work cut out from the UAW.
It is going to be a very interesting negotiation. Labor relations in the auto industry have gotten better, so hopefully they will be able to avoid strike. And many years ago now doesn't seem like it to us old guys, but they went to two tier wages with younger people coming in at lower wage levels, and so that has helped the automakers a lot. Now, how they handle a technological change rather than an age change is going to be very interesting. And what kinds of people do you need?
What kinds of jobs are you going.
To have to fill?
Well, Michael, thank you so much for being here. That was Michael McKee, our Global Economics and Policy editor, and coming up on.
Bloomberg Daybreak weekend.
How about a trip to France the Summer Economic Conference coming to ex Au Provence. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in.
The coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York.
Up later in our program big global gathering on artificial intelligence. It's in the works for next week, but first, After scraping through a difficult winter, Europe's major economies are stagnating as the impact of higher interest rates now kicking in. It's an interesting time for some of the continent's stop economists, policymakers and business people to be gathering in the south of France for the annual Economic Conference in the city of ex A, Provence.
For more, let's head to London.
And bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carroll Tom.
It's a staple of the European economists calendar. This conference organized by the French group Sec de seconist or the Circle of Economists. The theme this year is Renewing Hope and features politicians, CEOs and some ECP policymakers joining the discussions as well. Bloomberg's Power supporter Carolyn Connan will be there and she joins us now for more on this Carolyn, many of our listeners may not be familiar with excellent Provence.
Can you tell us a bit about first of all, where this event is taking place.
Even I think you have to close your eyes and imagine the village atmosphere of Provence. So it's in southeast of France, less than one hour north of Marseille. You can hear the sound of the cicadas because it's the beginning of summer, and you have some concerts, some opera at night. That's where the conference is taking place. Probably one of my favorite events of the year, even though sometimes the weather might get very hard to occasionally close
to the forty degrees celsius. So most important, most importantly, I would say it's one of the best events to mingle with French executives and ministers because they are relaxed, they're very open to conversations and sometimes they actually share some news with you. Really enjoyed the conference because it's also the same weekend as the Opera Festival in Excellent Province, and it comes at a quiet period before the first half earning season, so not too much pressure. It's kind
of like DeVos in France. That's why we call it here the French divors.
Ah, well, you're making us all very jealous the prospect of that setting. Anyway, for the organization, talk to us about the key topics they're going to be up for discussion.
As you mentioned this year, the mental topic is renewing hope, which couldn't be of course more appropriate given the geopolitical uncertainties, the war in Ukraine, the rebellion of Wagner and Russia, and the concerns also on the economic front about a credit crunch and the danger of possible recession. So we'll get some general comments about all that, but the outlook for the economy, but also some of the other issues supply chain innovation, labor shortages for example. But X, as
you know, also lacks expanding the topics for discussions. So for example, well the ECB president Kittin Lagard is doing a panel about gender equality. You've also got the former prime minister and presidential hopeful Edward Philip who will talk about choices for the future of society. So there will be also a lot of discussions about ecological awareness, healthcare, work, life balance. There is a one panel for example, which is called working to live or living to work. That's
a interesting choice, and of course education. The younger generations will also be discussing. On the other side of the spectrum, the retirement because we're just a few months after President Macon pass is very controversial pension reform.
Yeah, I mean, look, it's a fascinating set of discussions. I do think it's very interesting, as you say that when we have this summer setting and the idea that you know, people are perhaps a little bit more relaxed, they'll take time to dig into the broader economic issues that perhaps you don't get to during the rest of the year. But having said that, we have got a couple of ECB names are going to be attending as well will be expecting to hear from them.
There are no less than five central bankers attending, including four from the ECB President La Gard, also the French Villa Gualo, the Portuguese and the Spanish, and also separately you got the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who's going to be there on a Sunday. So very interesting and it's not usually a place where Christine Lagarde breaks a lot of news, but some of the others they like talking. They like to be a bit more open
minded to talking on the sideline. So we'll check if they give any signals regarding the next ECB meeting in July and also of course the highly expected September meeting. What will be the policy after these sellin next meetings? How many more rate hikes are we going to see? That will be some of the key questions. And who knows, if you're lucky, I might actually have an exclusive sit down with one of those central bankers. And my good feeling this will actually happen.
Oh, we're all wishing for that as well, Carolyne. Let's set ourselves up for that ECB conversation, though, and bring you some of the interview that we had with the ECB Vice president least again to us. In recent days he's been speaking to Bloomberg at the ECB forum in CenTra and Portugal and told our editor at large, Francine Laqua, that the September rate hike decision was open.
We are not done. There is more ground to recovered, and you know, the key factory is going to be the blution of inflation. And so what we want to indicate is very clearly our determination to reduce inflation and to bring inflation down or definition of press ability.
So what happens for future interest rate hikes? I know your data dependence. I know September is a question mark. But given the data points we have, now, are you just going to power ahead and hike Well.
I think that July is afeta complete. It has been indicated, and you know, it's quite clear September. September will depend. You know, you know, what are the factors that are going to determine what happens in September will be our bank lending survey that I think that is very important because it's going to be an indication of how our monetary policies trust to the financial system and from the
financial system to the rest of the economy. How you know, the title in the financing conditions fed through to the real economy. The second will be you know, our predictions in September we will have a new round projections. And finally, the lusion of core inflation underline inflation. That I think that is you know, very relevant in the person's scumstances. So these are the three elements that we will take
into consideration. But well, I said that in July it was afterta complete or it is after the complete in September. I think that is open.
Do you believe, Vice President, this is a matter of credibility for the Central Bank to get to two percent no matter what happens.
Well, I think that is very important. It's our mandate. You know, it's not only well, credibility is very relevant, but as well you know, we have a definition of pressability and our mandate is to to to rich and to guarantee that presstability is so for us is key.
That's the ECP's vice president least to gain us Speaking to Bloomberg last week, Carolyne Connor, what are the other names that you'll be watching out for an ax On province aside from the center bankers.
So in between you're going to have a multitude of French executives including carfour, Sanofi, LG mh Elberts, Total NGI and also all the banks BNP sociitation in Hall. And then you've got a lot of member of the French government, including the Finance minister Brinolomer, the European Minister Lawrences Boon, that we're going to talk to on Friday, and I was mentioning earlier the presidential hopefully war Philip. That will be also interesting to see him there.
I'm gonna bringing those entews on Bloomberg Radio and television as well. Lawrence Spoon always a very interesting name to lest Night for of course she's former chief economist at the OECD as well, so somebody well known to the listeners and viewers at Bloomberg. Talk to us a bit about the economic context for this event, Caroline, because it's happening at a time in France where the recent economic data has been quite mixed.
Yeah, well, you've got the economy context and the political context. Of course, inflation in France remains above five percent, so it's actually slightly lower than the average in the US
on which is closer to six percent. But clearly the French growth is expected to remain subdued about plus zero point six percent this year after two point five percent last year, so that would be below the one percent growth target that Macron's government was counting on to cut the budget deficit, and that will be another key discussion in x is whether Emaniel Macon will be able to pass more reforms after the very controversial pension reform, whether
he'll be able to cut this budget deficit and a very high French debt. We've also seen business and consumer confidence also deterior rating because of high rates, of course, but also because of high food inflation. And in spring, remember you had even a Feitch cutting Frances credit rating. So very interesting economic discussions ahead.
Plenty to watch out for them. Thank you to Bloomberg's Carolyn Connor in Paris, and we will bring you coverage of the excellent Province Economic conference on Bloomberg Radio and television as well. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak here but getting at six am in London and one am on Wall Streets.
Tom bel c Stephen and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, here comes the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai.
I'm Tom Busby and this is.
Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg it a Active Brokers studio in New York. Bloomberg Elemon three oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixteen to the country, Syrius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.
I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. Investors tracking the coming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai very closely. For more on the conference and what to expect, let's go to our Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Doug Krisner.
Tom.
We know chatchipt and other generative AI applications have sparked intense interest in the promise of artificial intelligence, and for China it sparked a new obsession competing with US titans names like Alphabet and Microsoft in the race for revolutionary apps for both business and consumers. Joining me now is Alan Jan He is Bloomberg Senior editor and our Shenzen bureau chief, joining us from our studios in Shenzen. Alan, thanks for being with us. This is being branded as
a world conference. Now, I know you're going to be there covering World AI. It's happening in China, obviously, and I'm wondering whether the story here is really about Chinese firms using this as a platform to showcase their potential and determination to compete with companies in the US. Do you think that's likely?
Oh, for sure. I mean all the big names are going to be there since time, and those are the two main Chinese companies that rolled OUTQPT services. So we're going to see a lot more. I'll see a lot of stops to see what they're working on. This is grapportunity to see how far along China is in terms of catching up to US in terms of AI.
Now, there are two important issues that I think we have to address. One is the government, which we can talk more about in a moment. The other is the semiconductor issue that AI is reliant upon. So we are told the Biden administration is planning to tighten export controls
on sales of some artificial intelligence chips to China. That proposal is expected we are hearing in July, and it would revise current US export controls aimed at making it more difficult to sell some chips to China without a license. This move may be aimed in part at Nvidia's A eight hundred chip. Last week on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, we spoke with Vlad Savov our tech at during Hong Kong and he offered some insight.
And Vidia had the restrictions in O sober from the US government, and it developed China specific chips which were less powerful. And now it seems like the government is going to increase its sanctions, get even further into it, and without those chips, like you say, it's very questionable that Chinese companies will be able to compete.
That is Bloomberg's Glad savof Alan. It seems like without access to the type of computing power that's necessary these graphics processors that basically are being used by companies that are playing in AI, without access to that technology, it's a very very high hurdle to try to advance the technology going forward.
Wouldn't you agree with that?
I think it's a challenge for sure. But this has been going for a while, right, I mean, China has been pose all kinds of sanctions in preventing a lot of these US tech companies from exploiting to the US and the video of course is the I mean, they have to kill a chip so to speak, right, the accelerate chip that a lot of these open AI services rely on. But I always I would argue that China's gonna be able to find a work around. I mean
they have so far in many different areas. I think they're gonna be able to try to outsource it from other you know, other countries. And I think that domestically, there are companies that are producing you know, similar chips. Maybe not as robust as the video, but but I think there's definitely a challenge. And then now you've also got a lot of venture capital invested, uh, you know in this area as well, I mean, to catch up to the US. So I think, you know, you've got
that going on. You've got the government as well, the Big fund investing in developing similar type chips. Right, So I think that you have a lot of other vendors. I think I think the short term, yes, it's gonna be an obstacle, but I think that China will figure figure a way out.
Let's talk about the role of the government. You just mentioned it there in one case, we know China is a vastly different landscape from what we're what we have here in the US, and obviously the American companies that have been playing in artificial intelligence in many respects are
as much as three years ahead. And I'm wondering now because a lot of the AI in terms of these large language models that are required to train AI programs, we know the data situation in China is very very different visa viv the Internet than it is in the West, and I'm wondering whether this is going to make it increasingly difficult for China to play catch up as well.
Oh for sure, I think you know you've got the data issue. There's two problems right. First is that you know, there's a lot of data regulation in China and Governor has already said that it would have to approve any kind of rollout of any kind of genitor AI services. That problem and then the problem of scraping the data. Right, a lot of the you know, data in China, you know, comes from the Chinese Internet, and it's censored, so it's not not gonna be as robust as what you said
the WES. But that's said you know, in the US you have problems with you know a lot of you know, fake news and this information as well. In China, one issue I think is that you know, a lot of Chinese they get the information from the super app right, we chat right, So it's a bit different from the US where you have the Yeah, everyone used the Internet. I think that there are limitations to that, the fact that you know, you can't you know, scrape the the
Chinese Internet for lots different reasons. They're also privacy issues as well. But it is it is a challenge. But I think that in some ways it creates opportunity for some of these companies like bay Do and Sense Sense Time, just because they know what the ground rules are.
Uh.
They know that, you know, certain things are going to be prohibited and it's gonna be up to the all these what do you call Internet platforms to the censor all this stuff. So there's a But it's not something that's new, is it. I mean, you've got China, You've got to Chinese intinet right people right use by doing all that, so it still works, you know, saying.
Well you mentioned by Do and I saw a piece on the Bloomberg terminal over the past week, they were comparing the by do ernie bot to chat GPT and by a couple of measures, by Do at least is claiming that the early Bought now beats Chat GPT. So to your point, there are companies in China that are pushing the envelope, so to speak, and trying to develop certain types of AI technology more on the consumer side. But I'm also curious is what's happening on the business side.
Is there a conversation happening that has to do with how AI might be useful for manufacturing or even healthcare in China?
Oh, for sure. I mean what they're planing and what to hear anyway, is they're planning to create these chatbots to help manufacturers, you know, analyze consumption trends. You know, there are a lot of business applications. I mean, for by do they plan to incorporate their erni body into everything that they're doing cloud computing, uh, in their evs.
So I think that yeah, I mean they're they're actually large uh not just consumption but uh, you know business software type applications, uh that can really use this kind of AI technology. And that's that's the area where trying to lacks relative to US. Right in business software.
We were mentioning the funding issue a moment ago, and I'm curious in terms of trying to find capital to support this type of growth in China. Where is it coming from? Where will it come from?
Yeah, That's the thing about it is that if you look at what's been happening last couple of years, right, this has this big tech crackdown and a lot of you know, Vegria capital into Chinas sort of plunge. Right. But then over the last you know, several months, we're seeing the value of deals UH in this area surging, saying like from a lack of years half of US levels and now they're you know, the two thirds of
where the US is. So a lot of money is coming from these venture capitalists and also from the government as well. I mean earlier this year, the government UH said that it was trying to get private capital to work with the government in order to uh, you know, sort of develop these technologies, especially high tech chips, UH, in order to compete with the WES. So you've seen a sea change in the way the government has approached
big tech. And when I said big tech, I'm seeing I'm saying basically, in some ways outside of Alibaba ten sent the fact that now there're you know, a lot of money is going into any companies that are working on you know, like these kind of chips that are being used for AI.
Alan, thank you so much. I look forward to your coverage in the week ahead from the World Ai Conference in Shanghai. Alan one is a Bloomberg senior editor, also our Shenzen bureau chief. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtison myself weekdays here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at six am in Hong Kong six pm on Wall Street.
Tom, thank you, Doug.
And coming up here on Bloomberg day Break Weekend, We're about to get more insight from the Fed, because here come those Fed minutes, and they come at a very important time. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. As we've been reporting, the FED is watching the jobs report heading our way this
coming Friday. Also this coming week, we'll get to be a fly on the wall when the FED releases the minutes from its latest policy meeting, and for more on that part of the story, that's heed to our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On host Joe Matthew.
Thanks.
We're going to look ahead now to the release of FED minutes next week as investors try to get inside the minds of policymakers, not that Chair j. Powell has been vague on this lately.
At our last meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the Federal funds rate at five to five and a quarter percent, while continuing the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. We made this decision in light of the distance we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags in monetary policy, and the
potential headwinds from credit tightening. As noted in the fmc's Summary of Economic projections, a strong majority of Committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times by the end of this year.
Two or more times by the end of this year. That's Powell from recent testimony on Capitol Hills just a little over a week ago, and he's reiterated that line several times. Joining us here in Washington, Bloomberg's Kate Davidson and Eric Wasson with the view on the FED and on Congress as the FED also deals with a response to the bank failures earlier this year. Kate, let's start with you here in the release of minutes.
What are you looking for already? It's crazy?
Is that possible?
I know? No, Well, just because we've bits been the NonStop Jay Powell Show, so we forgot. It's been almost three weeks since the meeting. Yeah, so I think, you know, we we kind of know a lot from the projections that we got. You know, normally we'd be looking for those minutes to just glean more insight from how big is the group of officials that want to go further and thinks the Fed keeps need to keeps, needs to
keep raising rates. But we know from the dot plot that we just got that there are a lot of them. So I think that we'll, you know, we'll be looking to see how you know, is that likely to happen in July and September? Our officials thinking they want to shift to in every other meeting stands I mean, we heard a little bit from Powell talking about that idea, saying, you know, consecutive rate hikes aren't off the table, which is a little puzzling because he kind of framed this
as well, it's a moderating the pace. We're gonna pop as a meeting and then go. But now he's saying they could go back to back again. So I think there that you know, anything we can learn about about that and the pace, But just it really, it really just seems like the group of hawks is surprisingly big right now, like all these worries about the banking crisis seem to really have faded.
Eric, what does Congress think of the FED at this point? Does it really fall along party lines?
I do see a real difference between the way Republicans are approaching Pal versus Michael Barr. You know, they seem to be very concerned about what Barr could be up to, could be proposing, you know, flagging the idea that this could actually have an impingement on bank risk taking in the economy versus I you know, when we asked a couple of weeks ago, it's pretty wide survey of members
talking about Pal. There seems to be general praise is that he's humble, he acknowledges mistakes, so I think they're trying to to sort of play good cup back up there a little bit.
Moving beyond transitory finally.
Right, So I know, you know, they do feel that he does bear shoulder some of the blame for acting, you know, too late to strain of inflation. But they send to focus the fire on Biden, someone they can actually unsee.
We're still looking for two more as the consensus.
Yeah, I mean to at least two, right, And it's kind of interesting. That's how Powell has been wording it. It's not entirely different from what he's said, but he's you know, we've all taken note it's been two or more, which again he points to the dot plot. You look at the projections, and that is what it says. But he's not not trying to shy away from that. He's not playing that down. Two or more is the expectation.
To be confounded by a market that's still betting on rate cuts.
It is.
It is pretty interesting, although I think every time he gets out there, you know, they inch up and inchub and you get data like you saw, it's all very strong still.
Great conversation and many thanks to Bloomberg's Kate Davidson on the FED and Bloomberg's Eric Watson on Congress. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. I hope you have a happy fourth Tom back to you in New York.
Thank you, Joe.
And that was Bloomberg's sound on co host Joe Matthew reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington. And you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm on Bloomberg Radio. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day.
I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us.
Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.