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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: Aviation, Debate, China's Economy

Sep 23, 202335 min
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Episode description

 Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking for you in the coming week including a trip to the World Aviation festival in Lisbon, a preview of the upcoming Republican Presidential primary debate and the state of China's economy.  

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Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program. This week, a ton of economic reports for investors to consider. I'm Tom Busby.

Speaker 2

In New York.

Speaker 3

I'm Caroline Hedger in London, where we're looking ahead to what comes next for the Global Aviation Industry meeting in Lisbon.

Speaker 4

I'm Ran Curtis in Hong Kong. We look at the types of fiscal stimulus that Chinese policymakers might add to recent monetary measures.

Speaker 5

I'm Kaylee Lyones in Washington, where we're gearing up for the second GOP presidential debate.

Speaker 6

That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg Eleve Them three own New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App.

Speaker 1

Well, good dat you. I'm Tom Busby. Last week, the Fed hitting pause again on interest rate hikes, but signaled that rates will remain higher for longer and at another rate hike will likely be needed this year if appropriate.

This week, the Fed and investors get a host of economic reports offering insight into how the economy is holding up as we head toward the fourth quarter, against the backdrop of oil approaching one hundred dollars a barrel again, the restart of federal student loan repayments, and some labor strife. A lot happening in one week, and to try to sort out what it means. We're pleased to welcome Anawong, Chief US Economists with Bloomberg Economics and Michael McKee, Bloomberg

International Economics and Policy correspondent. Thank you both for being here.

Speaker 2

We're glad to have the opportunity.

Speaker 1

Well, Anna, let's start with what we saw last week from the Fed. What changed in the Fed's outlook on jobs, inflation GDP, and of course, how that affects its dot plot as we look ahead to twenty twenty four.

Speaker 7

Yeah.

Speaker 8

I think the most notable changes in the summary of economic projections is that the Fed has completely embraced the soft landing outlook, so they revised down or really slashed the unemployment rate for this year and unemployment projections for the next two years. They now think that unemployment rate at the end of this year would be on three point eight percent, and what that means is that it

would not satisfy the psalm's rules identification of recession. So whereas in the previous dot plot and SEP, the unemployment forecast basically imply that the Fed sees a recession happening this year, and looking further out, it also suggests that they see that unemployment rate does not necessarily need to go up in order to quell inflation. They now see the peak unemployment rate at four point one percent next year. So correspondingly, this is why they see that uh that

that that rate should be held higher for longer. So in the plot, they still see one more hike for this year, and they see that rates would stay at five point one percent in twenty twenty four and on the upper threes in twenty twenty five. And so that is entirely consistent and driven by the improved unemployment outlook.

Speaker 1

And Michael inflation. They've also seen a little change in their target for inflation over the next year.

Speaker 2

Well, this is the part that's a little inconsistent. They did raise their growth forecasts and lowered their unemployment forecasts, but they also predict that inflation is going to go down, which implies that this soft landing in this stronger than expected economy isn't going to be particularly inflationary, which is fine if if that's what happens, But then it raises the question of rates. Why are you still holding in reserve the opportunity to raise rates if you think that

you're not going to need it. Obviously they want to keep their options open. Nobody wants to be backed into a corner and suddenly have to apologize for coming back in and raising rates when nobody expected it. But it does suggest that they see a kind of new regime here. And certainly the Phillips curve at least appears to be dead at this point as far as the Fed is concerned. Unemployment going down and no inflation at all, which is kind of a major turn in their thinking.

Speaker 1

And how about economic growth, because we get a GDP read for the Springs second quarter for this year, but what's their projection change on growth?

Speaker 2

Well, they raised their growth forecasts significantly, more than doubled it for this year and then raised it by four tenths for next year to one and a half percent. That seems reasonable given what we are seeing in the economy right now, although, as Jim Bullard cautioned me this week, there's always recency by in your forecast and you're looking at the most recent numbers, so something could go wrong.

And that's where I turn it over to Anna, because Anna has been predicting something is going to go wrong in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 8

Yeah, Mike, I thought what Mike's One of the most interesting things that Mike just said is that there seems to be a regime change in thinking within the FOMC, really embracing this immaculate disinflation idea. But the thing is, the outlook in the next couple of weeks is highly uncertain. We have the potential widening escalation in the UAW strikes, oil price going up to one hundred dollars per barrel,

and also potential government shutdown. Yet in the FOMC forecast, there's a section that asked participants about their uncertainty over the forecast, and interestingly, across all the economic variables they indicate that there's less uncertainty. So basically Not only is the FOMC projecting a regime shift and this immaculate disinflation, they're really certain about it, with more confidence over this outlook, even as the economic environment we're facing is actually extremely uncertain.

In the next couple of weeks.

Speaker 1

Wow, And in this next week, we're going to see something that could change things. It's the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption Core price Index. Mike, I know this is closely watched by you as well. What are we looking at because now we'll shift from what happened to what we're going to see ahead this week.

Speaker 2

Well, there's two reports next Friday. One is on a PCEE, which a lot of people will be watching. Of course at the FED, the expectation is we're going to see a rise in the headline number brought about by rising energy prices. It's the core that the FED is going to be focused on, and there economists see no change in the rate of inflation on a month over month basis, just two tenths of eight percent, but that would push the year over year down to three point nine percent,

which is a significant drop going forward. For the FED. To get the forecast, it has for the end of the year. It probably means inflation needs to come in a little bit even stronger. But the Fed is going

to look past oil prices they always do. They're going to relate that to the economy by looking at the later release on Friday, the University of Michigan's Expectations Index Sentiment Index, and they'll be looking at what people think inflation is going to be like, because if oil prices keep going up and gasoline prices keep going up, then what you have is a question about inflation expectations becoming unanchored. So they'll want to make sure that people aren't starting

to think inflation's getting embedded in the economy. So two important reports next Friday. Also as part of that PC report, we get personal spending numbers, and that'll be interesting because we saw a little bit of weakness in the retail sales numbers, but those don't include services, so we'll see if people are still outspending or if they're starting to pull back.

Speaker 1

Speaking of pulling back, because I mentioned earlier, is the federal student loan repayments which will start this coming week by October first their due, and that may change spending habits for millions of Americans who owe billions of dollars. Anna, what's your take on that?

Speaker 8

Yeah, actually, we have already as the student loans borrowers repaying a lot of that loan starting already in August, and so we estimate that that would mean possibly one hundred billion per year less less in consumption but put toward repaying student loans. So that could shave off as much as zero point six percent from consumption annually. And if this change happened is concentrated with it and a quarter, it could have a pretty significant close to one percentage point drag on consumption.

Speaker 1

Well, now, there's also a ton of housing data coming up, including two reads on home prices in July. We have new home sales, pending home sales for August, interest rates solidly above seven percent, home prices just after all time highs. Michael, what do you expect to see and is there any good news in housing?

Speaker 2

Well, there has been good news for home builders because people can't buy existing homes at this point. There isn't much inventory, so they're buying new homes. So we will get a report on new homes next week and it is expected to go down a little bit some of that may be weather related. We shall see housing starts were off a bit, but likely weather related. We did see last week the existing home sales numbers fall by another seven tenths to just over four million, the weakest

basically this year. But prices are going up, which just makes it even harder to get the whole industry going, and it is going to take a while. One of the things we don't know is how low do mortgage rates have to go. In other words, how much does the FED have to cut before you reach a level at which people will go back into the mortgage market. Right now is certainly the existing home side is frozen.

Speaker 6

Yeah. Oh, it's terrible out there.

Speaker 1

And Anna Wong, Chief US Economists with Bloomberg Economics, Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, A lot to look forward to. I want to thank you both for joining us this week. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we take you to Europe and preview the World Aviation Festival in Lisbon. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week, I'm Tom

Busby in New York. Up later in our program we preview the second Republican presidential debate minus Donald Trump. But first, the World Aviation Festival is builled as one of the biggest annual events for the industry, and it's taking place this week in Lisbon. For more, let's head to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe banker Caroline Hepgar Tom.

Speaker 3

Global aviation faces quite a few challenges, sawing crude all prices at a time when airfares are already high, labour costs, squeezing profit margins, a sluggish supply chain, and growing emphasis on the environmental impact of the industry. Now. I discussed some of these with Bloomberg's aerospace reporter Kate Duffy. She has the lucky job of reporting from Lisbon in the next few days on the plans from commercial airlines, airports, and all the other businesses that supply and support them,

including more than one hundred startups. I began by asking her who she thinks is going to be attending the World Aviation Festival.

Speaker 9

There'll be a whole host of attendees at the World Aviation Festival this year, from major airlines, airports, suppliers and other aviation groups. Really so the biggest names from airlines are Emert CEO, Tim Clark, IAG CEO, Louis Galago and Ryan az Eddie Wilson, but a range of other airlines are also attending, well known names including easy Jet, British Airways, TAP and the new read Air. I've also counted around thirty airports across the world or on the list speaking

on panels and roundtables. And then there are the suppliers, the data providers, travel agents there and other aviation groups speaking and attending. So I'm expecting some good debates to come up over the two days on there.

Speaker 3

There's a lot moving for the industry. What do you think the focus is going to be this year?

Speaker 9

So looking at the agenda, many airlines will be discussing the hurdles they've faced over the past year and also how they're looking to overcome those future challenges. For example, TAP CEO Rodriguez has an interview with Bloomberg Sky Johnson

about difficulties and re emerging stronger. And there's also a panel oneable for seeable headwinds for aviation in twenty twenty four, and it's worth mentioning also that it's not long before the Dubai Air Show kicks off and exects like Tim Clark may give an insight into what we can expect

further down the line. Of course, sustainability and the environment with the scaling up of sustainable aviation fuel will play a part, as well as supply chain challenges post COVID recovery demand now we're heading into the winter, and of course air traffic control disruption, which we've seen a lot of this summer.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Absolutely. What do you think the biggest issues though, are going to be when it comes to the discussions. You know, you mentioned a few of them that have really rattled the industry and we haven't even touched on the supply chain overhang. Yeah.

Speaker 9

For many airlines the air traffic control disruption and strikes in Europe were a massive frustration as they caused cancellations and delays and not a good look when you're stranding passengers around the world too, and the recent technical failure at NATS in the UK sent airlines into turmoil and it took them days to recover, which some bosses like

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary and EasyJet CEO have really criticized. So I think some of the discussions will be on how the industry can and should avoid these problems in the future and whether that ramping up hiring or installing better tech systems is the way forward. And as you mentioned, another issue which is widespread across the aviation industry at

the moment is this sluggish supply chain backlog. You know, manufacturers are lacking spare parts for aircraft and therefore airlines are having to wait much longer to fill up their fleets and it's frustrating for those airlines which are now having to deal with some of the recently discovered engine issues that require some engines to be removed and those are the Pratt and Whitney engines over the next three years. So there will be concern about the demand as well

for the next travel season. You know, summer was a blowout for airlines with many reporting better than expected results, but that the next focus is on how they can sustain the demand in this winter in this winter season.

Speaker 3

Yeah, especially as oil prices are going up, and obviously that has a huge impact on the industry.

Speaker 9

Yeah, oil is the singlest biggest, single biggest expense for an airline, so many have struggled to cope with the high oil prices. Recently. You know, some air US carriers slashed their profit outlooks for the third quarter. They blamed one of the factors on being a jump in oil prices. But when oil prices jump, SODA's inflation, and this means that the costs can be passed on to the customers.

And at a time of the cost of living crisis, you know, it's taking a toll with mortgages, groceries and energy prices jumping and more price conscious passengers might be thinking twice about spending on a lavish holiday or a plane ticket abroad. So it's clear oil volatility is a big pressure point in aviation at the moment, as the outlook for travel post summer remains quite uncertain.

Speaker 3

Yeah, what is the passenger experience then?

Speaker 9

How all of this?

Speaker 3

What has it been like for travelers recently? Is it the end of kind of revenge travel that we saw post the pandemic.

Speaker 9

Yeah, so COVID nineteen posted a huge challenge for airlines and of course passengers were severely disrupted by this, and this year has been probably just as bad with the air traffic control disruption and strikes that we've seen. In terms of revenge travel, there is this sense that passengers are spending you know, maybe more on onto some passengers

spending more on luxury tickets. But there is a concern about whether price hikes will happen further and whether this will put customers off in the future from buying plane tickets.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Technology wise, then this event has all the suppliers. So what sort of things do you think they're going to be demonstrating or discussing as the kind of solutions for the industry.

Speaker 9

There's lots on airport technology, how to make the passenger experience more seamless, lots on customer experience AI, just making the process for passengers more smooth when flying and cutting out the old fashioned manual ways of doing things. Sometimes we've seen this go wrong in the past. Some airlines have trouble with their apps. You know, passengers off to complain on social media about the accessibility of an airline's app.

So there seems like there will be panels on how the industry can make the digital side more comfortable for the passengers.

Speaker 3

And there'll be lots of airport leaders there as well. I mean about sixty percent of the festival is made up of sort of European players, but also quite a lot from the Middle East and the rest of the world. There will be airports represented Dubai, Hong Kong, Winnipeg. They're all speaking at the event. What sorts of things do you think they're going to be thinking about?

Speaker 9

So from what the agenda says, airports will be discussing how to make their operations more digital, how to improve the airport experience for passengers through tech and sustainability. Some airports have had a rough ride this summer, whether having to cater for passengers who've experienced delays and cancelations, or

having to deal with natural flooding disasters extreme weather events. Others, such as Amsterdam's ship On airport, have struggled with handling luggage and that's led to a lot of passengers not getting their bags on time. So I think how airports are going to go forward with the tech and help passengers make their travel more smooth is what is going.

Speaker 3

To be discussed at the festival. Yeah, that was Bloomberg's aerospace reporter Kate Duffy talking to me ahead of the World Aviation Festival in Lisbon. She'll be there along with Bloomberg TV's Guy Johnson. I'm Caroline Hepger here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street.

Speaker 1

Tom Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Europe. Ankor Caroline Hepgar and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, the second Republican presidential candidate's debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, and we will get a preview with Bloomberg's Kaylee Lines. I'm Tom Busby and this is.

Speaker 6

Bloomberg Badcast live from the Bloomberg it a active Brokers studio in New York. Bloomberg e Lemon free oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, Sirius XM channel one to nineteen to London, DAB Digital Radio and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend.

Speaker 1

I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. Republican presidential candidates are gearing up for round two, preparing for the second primary debate in SeeMe Valley, California, but once again, the front runner won't be on stage for more. Let's head to our Bloomberg ninety nine one news from in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lines.

Speaker 5

Yeah, that's right. This coming Wednesday, candidates will take the stage once again, although there will probably be fewer of them this time around than there were at the first debate. The threshold to qualify is higher. One thing we know for sure, though, is that former President Donald Trump, who remains the front runner in this GOP race, will not

be there. He's going to counter program again. Here to talk about all of it with us are two of our all star national politics reporters, Gregory Cordy and Ryan Teague Beckweth, who are here with me in Washington. So, Ryan, if I could just begin with you, who has the most to gain or lose at this point in the election cycle, given what we're seeing and polling lately. How polls have changed since the first debate. Who needs this to work out in round two?

Speaker 10

I mean, this is a shot for Ron DeSantis to try to kind of revitalize his campaign. At this point, he is polling about as far behind Donald Trump as Robert F. Kennedy Junior is polling behind Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries, So he needs any sort of thing

he can get to juice that campaign. I think it's probably more of an opportunity for Nikki Haley or Tim Scott, some of the people who are running as kind of the backup plan in case the Santus falters to try to assert themselves, get some kind of moment that people will recall. Haley I think had a brief moment at the last debate when she was talking about abortion. But I don't know. I don't know if they'll it's still a crowded field. I don't know if they'll have that chance.

Speaker 5

Gregory, what do you think about this?

Speaker 10

Well?

Speaker 11

I think it's an important debate for everyone on that stage, obviously, but especially for the ones actually at the lower end of the pulling range where the Republican Party has designed this debate season to start to weed out some of these lower pulling candidates, and so for the first debate, you had to pull with just one percent in three national poles to get on the stage. Now that threshld's moving up to three percent, we don't know what the threshold is going to be for the third debate, but

it's going to be even higher. So for candidates like Tim Scott who we haven't mentioned yet, or Chris Christy, certainly Doug Bergham and Asa Hutchinson, if they even make the second debate stage, are going to be under a lot of pressure to really have a turnaround moment, because as soon as they drop off the stage, it's hard to imagine them coming back. And then of course Ron de Santis, of course he has his polls have been moving in the wrong direction. He needs to turn that

around and so needs to have a breakout performance. But look, this is also a debate where who knows what the ratings are going to be. It's a little bit more of a niche audience. It's gonna be on Fox Business News as opposed to Fox News may have a smaller audience, it's in a different time zone, so it's really going to take a big moment for any one of these candidates to get the attention they need to be seen as a serious challenger to Donald Trump.

Speaker 5

Yeah, Gregory, I'm glad you brought up the candidates who are kind of at the lowest rung, if you will, pulling at the moment, because we saw after the first debate, shortly thereafter Francis Sorez, the mayor of Miami, who hadn't qualified, dropped out of the race. And I personally have asked Burgham and Putchison if they would drop out if they didn't qualify for the second They didn't tell me yes, But I guess we'll all kind of have to wait and see on that one. But is this the point?

Are we now at the point of the race where we will start to see more of a thinning of a field, perhaps like many candidates dropping at once, Gregory, Yeah.

Speaker 11

I mean, I think the lesson that the Republican Party learned through twenty sixteen is that having too many candidates in the field. And remember at this point in twenty fifteen, we had what seventeen different candidates.

Speaker 5

Yeah, two different stages were required.

Speaker 11

Do you needed to spread the debate over two different nights? There was a so called kids table debate, right, and that was just untenable, and the Republican Party decided we're not going to have that situation again, because that's a situation that it led to this, really the Trump vote and then the anti Trump vote being divide over two or three different candidates. Trump was able to divide and conquer. Trump may still yet be able to divide and conquer.

But the idea is, you need to present Republican voters with a smaller menu of choices or else really it's going to be Trump by default.

Speaker 5

So he brings up Trump Ryan, who was the elephant not in the room, but very much in the room at the first debate, and this is going to be the same thing, right, He's not going to be there again once again. He's counter programming, this time by being in Detroit to talk to the United Auto Workers. Talk to us about the effect of that.

Speaker 10

Yeah, I mean, well, obviously it robs the room of a lot of the crackle and electricity that you get from having a real, live debate, you know, I mean

having a bunch of people sort of arguing intramurally. I think it hurt him a little bit in the last time because having all these people on stage talking amongst themselves, even though they were often talking about him without him there, I think kind of was the first glimpse you might have at a post Trump Republic party and what that might look like and what the debates it might have, you know, But it also means that the people who are tuning in to watch this are like, really not normal.

I include myself in that, you know, I mean being paid to watch it. It's my job. But like, you know, who's going to turn into watch a debate without the front runner in it. It's going to be like a really select audience of kind of people who are really

into politics. So that's why I think probably the more important thing at the debate will be to score the kind of memorable moment that gets replayed on TV, that gets goes viral on social media, so that the people who aren't tuning into this see that, because that's a chance for some free publicity, and I think it's also a chance for you to create some content for your super pac to use. The Desanta super Pac has done an ad that just basically featured his response to a

question about the border with Mexico. You know, they basically turned that into an ad and that's a great way for him to not coordinate with them, which he's not legally allowed to do, by putting this out in the public domain and them to borrow that. So I think it may be more important to have a moment than to actually do well over the entire debate.

Speaker 5

You have me Ryan thinking back to some of the moments of the first debate that at least stick out in my mind, one of them being former Governor Chris Christi telling Vivek Ramaswami he sounded like chat gpt. Another being former Governor Nikki Haley telling Vivek Ramaswami that he has no foreign policy experience, and it shows those were kind of two SoundBite moments, if you will. That's what we would call it in my TV world or radio world as well. Are we still talking about Ramaswami in

the same way, Gregory? It seems like he did get that kind of spike at least in you know, being something people were talking about on social media and the immediate aftermath of the first debate. But where is his candidacy now?

Speaker 11

Every other candidate on that stage other than Ramaswami has a long career in politics, and has cross paths with each other at some But if you had asked these seven other candidates what they knew about Vivek Ramaswami going into that debate, none of them had ever met him before. This is the first time they'd ever seen him, and really all of them had sort of an interest in knocking him down a peg, partly because he is the outsider. He was seemed to be the easy target. Ronda Santis

is certainly threatened by Ramaswami's rise. He's in third place and rising in a lot of the polls. And for the people below Ramaswami, obviously they want to be the one, if not to get the second place. Obviously they all like to be the first place, but if not to get a second place, to get the third place to then be the challenger to Disantis. And so there was

that dynamic there. And frankly, Ramaswami is an easy candidate to go after just because his positions on issues, as expressed in his different books that he's written and on the campaign trail are a little inconsistent, to say the least in a little unorthodox, and so that for these more conventional candidates makes them an easy target. So yeah, I would look for that dynamic to continue next week.

Speaker 5

All right, Well, I think it's going to be interesting either way, no matter who's there or who's not. Looking forward to both of your coverage of it when it happens next Wednesday. That's Ryan Tegue Beck with and Gregory Cordy national politics reporters here at Bloomberg, and Tom, we'll send it back to you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lines reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington, and you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm on Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we head to Asia to see what China can do to power up its economy again. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our globe look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in

New York. What fiscal stimulus would it take for China to power up its economy again and the timing of it. Let's get to Bloomberg day Break Asia co host Brian Curtis to find out more.

Speaker 4

Tom China's economy has shown some signs of bottoming out of late, but that doesn't mean that investors are coming back. Foreign funds have continued to flow out. There appears to be some lingering tensions between policymakers thinking that they're on the right track and others who are calling for more

aggressive support now. In the past few days, the monetary policy had at the PBOC seid the central Bank has the tools to get the job done, and the former PBOC Governory Gung said the PBOC should ramp up policies. In the meantime, the city of Guangzhou eased home buying rules for non residents. Many investors out there are calling for more fiscal support. We heard from Helen Ju at n F Trinity.

Speaker 7

I do think that monetary policy has already played its role, and I think what's more important going forward is going to be whether the property segment can stabilize. That's going to be very crucial in terms of the fact that it's you know, two thirds of household wealth. It's going to be really impactful in terms of consumer confidence and

spending and consumption overall. So I actually think that there needs to be more policy support on the fiscal or property fronts, and that's likely to come through in the next three to six months.

Speaker 4

Helen ju Managing director and CIO at NF Trinity. Joining us now is Jill desis Bloomberg's China Economy and Government editor. So, Jill, what are you hearing from investors about the kind of fiscal support they'd like to see.

Speaker 12

I think that at this point in this recovery cycle, it's really about, I guess, trying to figure out what else is happening with the property sector. I think we've known for a while that, you know, China's been incredibly reluctant to roll out any kind of giant fiscal stimulus. I don't think they're going to be running around cutting checks for everybody and trying to spur spending in the economy.

That I'm also just not even sure how effective that would really be when you know, the type of massive fiscal stimulus I think is what China is really worry about because it's what they believe got them into trouble. Uh, you know several years ago when they've tried rolling up massive stimulus. So at this point, I think that what you just saw in Guangzhou, for example, might be a little bit more realistic in terms of how exactly the

country is trying to use the property sector. So what Gangho did, so this is one of this one of China's four biggest cities, the Tier Tier one cities, they just eased some home buying rules so that people who are non residents of these urban districts, as long as they've been paying taxes in the area for a couple

of years, they can actually buy property there. So buy one home there, and so that's the kind of thing that maybe eases some of these really really massive restrictions that have been on the property sector for a while. And then you know, tris to spur spending that way. I think that that's probably more realistic in terms of incremental measures that way that you might see going forward.

Speaker 4

But Jill, if Tier one and here two cities do further relax home purchase restrictions, that might draw a lot of funds into the big cities and away from the smaller cities where you see the developers that have been in trouble, like Country Garden and Agile. So is that the type of thing that policymakers should do.

Speaker 12

Yeah, I mean I think that that's the tricky balance part of this, right, maybe a reason why you're not seeing massive amount of rollbacks in terms of policies. I mean, at this point, look what Guangzhou just did, for example. I mean that's easing some restrictions on first time home purchases.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 12

I think that we've also seen, you know, within the past couple of weeks, and easing of existing mortgages and such across the country. It's really about finding a tricky balance because also just removing all of these restrictions on how many homes you can buy, yeah, certainly could I think kind of come back to bite the economy in a bad way. I Mean, part of the reason why the property sector is in this mass is because of a lot of speculative buying that really ramped up over

the last several years. You've got companies I'm promising homes that they can't actually build in time. You've got people paying mortgages like houses that don't even really exist. So I think at this point it's a measured approach that I think the government is trying to pull off. But it's very tricky here.

Speaker 4

Jill, Thank you. Jill Desis Bloomberg's China Economy and Government Editor. I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong along with Doug Chrishner. You can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg day Break Asia beginning at six am in Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street tom.

Speaker 1

Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Asia co host Brian Curtis. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Buzzby. To stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now

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