Bloomberg Daybreak: October 13, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) - podcast episode cover

Bloomberg Daybreak: October 13, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio)

Oct 13, 202243 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg Daybreak with Karen Moskow and Nathan Hager.

GUESTS:
Sarah House
Director/Senior Economist
Wells Fargo Securities LLC
on CPI

Will Kennedy
Managing Editor-EMEA
Bloomberg Editorial
on oil

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

By from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg Day Right for Thursday, October two. Coming up this hour, investors praise for this morning's reading on inflation, the International Energy Agency warrants about global recession, US officials where they're planning to cap Russian oil prices may backfire, and the deadline approaches for the Bank of England to end its an emergency bond buying program. New York's gunlog it's a

reprieve from a federal appeals court. Plus Russia Acid, Ukraine's key area by Iranian made kamikaze drones. I'm Michael lar More. I'm trying stash our in sports, the praise and padres one of the nationally playoffs. Yankees and Guardians scheduled to

play game two tonight. That's all trading head on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven, TREEO, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Syrius XM one nineteen and around the world. Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business app. And good morning. I'm Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Hagar. Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you by SEI. Built on

advanced technologies and fifty years of innovation. SEI offers asset managers are comprehensive and flexible operations outsourcing platform go to se i C dot com, slash managers and US stock index futures are higher. This morning's five oh one on Wall Street, and we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, SNP futures are up about fifteen points down, futures of A hundred

twenty eight and NASDAG futures up. Twenty ten year treasury down four thirty seconds, yield three point nine one per cent in a yield on the two year four point three one percent, Nathan Karen, will we wait for today's inflation reports. Stocks enter this session at their lowest level since September twenty s and P five hundreds declined for six straight days now. Victoria Green is chief investment officer

at G squared Private Wealth. The biggest thing an investor can do is don't panic or don't dirk on data. We've seen wild moves off of some of these data releases or FED moves, and a lot of times it's a one or two day move and comes back to trent. So I would say like one day, one week, does not a market make like be a little bit patient g squared Private Wealth. Victoria Green says she does not expect the FED to pivot anytime soon. Still, Nathan, the

Fed will be watching today's inflation data closely. The Consumer Price Indise for September comes out at eight thirty am Wall Street time, and we get a free view from Bloomberg Economics. Corresponded Michael McKee. Only minor progress on inflation is forecast, with headline CPI rising at a faster rate in September, while core inflation slows but only to a still strong level. Housing is the biggest problem. Shelter makes up about a third of the overall basket of consumer

prices and an even larger share of the core. Overall Rents have only started to stabilize. Some categories should see pullbacks, particularly used cars. Retailers are also discounting to clear out inventory ahead of the holidays. But the ultimate message to the Fed will be keep raising interest rates. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak thanks Mike, And speaking of interest rates, more big hikes are on the way from the Fed unless there's a significant change in the data. That's according to

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. If we do not see signs that inflation is moving down, my view continues to be that sizeable increases in the target range for the Federal funds rate should remain on the table. However, if inflation starts to decline, I believe a slower pace of rate increases would be appropriate, And those comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman suggests she supports another seventy five basis point

move when officials meet next month. We all eyes are on the Fed, Nathan, But starting tomorrow earnings come back into play too. Bank of America reports on Monday, and CEO Bryan moynihan is now with optimistic words ahead of the result. He says consumers are in good shape and his bank only expects us like recession in the US.

They have this core of positive real GDP next quarter just above zero positive and three straight quarters of negative and so effectively defending what the NVR does you know that's that's a slight recession, but is shallow. Brian Monahan spoke at the Institute of International Finance meeting in Washington. Stay tuned for more from Moynahan on Monday, when we speak live at the Bank of America's CEO on Bloomberg Radio and Television. Well, Bank of America only sees a

slight recession, Karen. The International Energy Agency is warning about a worldwide contraction. The i e A says opec decision to cut oil production threatens to push prices two levels that tipped the global economy into a downturn. And checking prices right now, Nimex crude is moving higher, up six cents per center fifty one cents at eighty seven dollars eighty cents of Arril Brent is hired by seven tenths

per cent at ninety three dollars eleven cents. Meantime, Nathan prisident Biden finds himself walking a tight rope over the world's demand for oil and gas and not says the administration considers a price cap on Russian oil. Bloomberg's Amy Morris has a look at the strategy from our nine on newsroom in Washington. The ideas to keep enough Russian supplies on the global market to prevent a spike in

oil prices. But the move by OPEC Plus to slash production by two million barrels a day could undermine the plan. Sources tell Bloomberg that administration officials are worried Russia may retaliate by cutting off supplies. Russia President Putin has said he will not sell oil to any nation that participates in the price cap plan. Still, the US is going ahead with it, seen as the best choice among bad options to curb Russia's oil revenues. In Washington, I'm Amy

Moore as Bloomberg Daybreak, Amy Thanks on Capitol Hill. The House January six Committee is getting ready to present new evidence. Today's hearing will focus on Donald Trump's state of mind the day of the attack at the US Capitol, Bloomberg said. Baxter has more. This is the last hearing before the midterms, and the committee is endeavoring to reinforce its contention that Donald Trump remains What they are saying is a clear

and present danger to democracy. Congresswoman Zoe Loughran says what they discovered through their work this summer make clearer donald Trump's intentions, what he knew, what he did, what others did. She says there will be no live witnesses, but they will have testimony from new witnesses in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, all right. Thanks. Meantime, Google has approved Donald Trump's Truth social app for release in its

Place store. Google had previously declined to distribute the app, saying it hosted violent threats and other content that goes against Google standards in Europe. This morning, Karen, it is all about the turmoil in financial markets. The deadline is hearing for the Bank of England to end its bond buying program. Let's go live to London and get the latest with Bloomberg's You and Potts. Good morning you and

good morning Nathan and Karen. Investors have been watching this story all week, but tomorrow afternoon, the UK's Central Bank will finally end its support for the country's bond markets. Ahead of that deadline, the government now appears to be at log aheads with the Bank of England's asked about any fresh market turmoil, the government's chance that said that

would be a matter for the governor in London. I'm you in Parts bloom Big Daybreak, all right, new and thank you and Incorporate News this morning shares about five materials moving lower. The maker of chip manufacturing equipment is slashing its forecast for a fourth quarter. It says new

export regulations will hurt sales to China. Straight ahead your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg And start at five oh seven on Wall Street, work sixty two degrees in Central Park on an accident headed to JFK southbound Van Wick past Linden Boulevard. Details coming up the traffic First. Michael Bars here with more on what's going on in New York and around the world.

Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. A federal appeals judge put on hold a lower court ruling that struck down many of New York's gun bands in public places as constitutional judge granted New York Attorney General Letitia James a temporary order preventing in October sixth decision by US District Judge Glenn Suttoby and Syracuse from going into effect. A three judge panel of the same appeal scored must old decide whether to stay Sotoby's decision for the entire appeal process.

Abortion providers in New York are seeing such an influx of pregnant women from other states that they are struggling financially to meet demand. Governor Kathy Oakle says the state is giving more than thirteen million dollars to organizations that operate clinics throughout New York so they can continue to serve women regardless of where they live. They include hospital based providers, independent clinics, as well as many who are receiving state assistance for the very first time because the

need is that dire. Governor Ocle says the state will protect a woman's right to a safe and legal abortion. New York's Health commissioner says monkey Bonts is no longer the threat to the city that it initially was. Dr Ashwyn Vassan, we have turned a corner that I hope indicates that we now have the upper hand on this outbreak. Meanwhile, Dr Pisan says as for polio, traces of the disease were found in wastewater samples across the state, including New

York City. For the fourth day in a residents of Kiev were awakened to the sound of Air Aid sirens as Russian bombardment of Ukraine's critical infrastructure continues what he's saying that a village was hit overnight by a so called Kama Kaze drone, probably supplied by Iran. A Connecticut jury as ordered conspiracy theorist Alex Jones to pay nine hundred sixty five million dollars to the relatives of Sandy

Hook Elementary School shooting victims and an FBI agent. They said Jones tormented their lives by promoting the live that the rampage was a hoax. Robert Parker lost his daughter Emily in the shooting. I couldn't be more proud to stand here and with all of these people. And I've really missed my wife and daughters right now and they can't be here with me. Robert Parker's daughter, who was one of twenty children and six adults killed in the massacre.

Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analyst more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Coming up to five ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg Sports up Take. Good morning, John stash All Right can order Nathan. Unusual scheduling in the American League Division Series.

Yankees and Guardians, with a night off in between the two games at the Stadium, schedule to resume their series tonight. Rain is in the forecast. They can't play tonight. They'll play tomorrow with Nestor Cortez going against Cleveland Shane Bieber. Both n lds tied at one. Atlanta shout out the Phillies three nothing behind Kyle Right twenty one game, winning the regular season. The Pondres beat the Dodgers by the same five to three score that l A won the

opener by Nix and Nets. Getting ready to tip off those seasons next week. The Nicks lost at Indiana. The Nets one in Milwaukee. Ben Simmons acquired last season, but he never played. He is playing now and wal Simmons doesn't score much Last night he at tennis Sis eight rebounds. Can the Giants keep it? Going off to a surprising four and one start, they host Baltimore Sunday as new coach Brian Dable continues to be impressed by his quarterback Daniel Jones. He comes in, he does a great job

with the players around him. Of of leading them of helping them with the offense. And you know, each week I think you get a little bit more comfortable again for five weeks into really live competition. Um so, I think you learn a lot about players, not just Daniel, but everybody. And he's done. He's done a good job for the Jones, led the Giants to the upset, went over Green Bay. The Jets visit Green Based Sunday. Aaron Rodgers heard his thumb when the Giants hit him on

the last play of that game in London. He didn't practice, but he is going to face the Jets, as rookie Skyler Thompson did last week. Miami's two a tongue below remains out with the concussion. The Dolphins are gonna start Thompson this week. Big game Sunday night, Dallas at Philadelphia Cowboys. Expected to stick with Cooper Rush. He's four and oh since Dak Prescott's thumb injury. Johns Dash Wear Bloomberg Sports, Nathan, thank you, john SMP futures right now up seventeen points,

Staff features up a hundred thirty seven. Nest that futures are higher by twenty nine points now ten Your treasuries down to thirty seconds. He'll three point nine zero percent ahead of the Consumer Price Index coming out eight thirty Wall Street Time. We pre you next with Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather, rain and a breeze today with a high near seventy degrees, mostly sunny Tomorrow and Saturday with

up for sixties. Clouds will increase on Sunday upper sixties once again. Right now sixty two degrees. Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com. The Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape is a Bloomberg business lash and I'm Karen Moscow. Equity is extending to clients as caution prevails before highly anticipated US inflation data later today. The dollar is edging higher. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes to the trading day

on Bloomberg. Guess and P Future is up down futures of A hundred fifty seven and nasday future is up thirty eight. The decks in Germany's up eight tenths of upper set ten. Your treasury little change your three point nine percent They yield on the two year four point three zero percent. Nine X frue oil is up six tents percent or fifty two cents at eighty seven dollars seventy nine cents a barrel. Comic schooled up third of a percent, or five dollars sixty cents at sixteen eighty three.

Ten announced the euro point nine seven to three against the dollar, British ground one point one to eight, and the N one forty six point seven nine. And looking at bit coin this morning, it's sound three quarters of a percent. It's at nineteen thousand dollars. The consumer Price Index at eight thirty Wall Street time, along with the weekly report on initial John List claims and Walgreen, Spoots Alliance, and black Rocker among companies scheduled to report earnings today.

That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with Moore on what's going on around the world. Muncle, Good morning, Good morning, Karen how Select Committees, the members investigating the January sixth attack on the Capitol, will hold its final hearing today. Members are promising substantial new footage and significant

witness testimony. Since the last hearing, multiple members of Trump's cabinet have testified behind closed doors millions of Social Security recipients was soon learned just how high a boost they'll get in their benefits next year. The increased to be announced today is expected to be the highest and forty years, maybe up to nine. In the NHL, the Bruins beat the Capitols five to Baseball's n l DS playoffs. The Braves beat the Phillies three zip to even their series

at a game of piece. The Padres beat the Dodgers five three to tie their series at one. One. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than journalist and analysts, are more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. It's five nineteen on Wall Street Life from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and

it's not just a boost in social security benefits. Were waiting to hear about how much of a boost are we gonna get in inflation when the Consumer Price Index comes out in just about three hours or so. Joining us now, Sarah House, senior economist at well Is Fargo.

Great to speak with you. Sarah, And as we look at the ECO screen on the Bloomberg terminal, pretty interesting consensus here from economists that the headline inflation numbers expected to take down two tenths percent while the core is expected to take up two tenths percent. What's your view. Yeah, so we're looking for a zero point two percent gain on the headline, so that's in line with the consensus, and that will help bring the year rear rate down

from eight three to eight one. And like we've seen the past few months of big factor driving that is lower gasoline prices, and we did see them take up towards the end of the month, but for the month on average they were down. But when we step back from energy prices, we're still seeing very strong momentum in

the core component. So we're looking for a slightly strong for gain there and what consensus is expecting so a zero point five percent monthly increase, which would actually push the year rear rate on core CPI up to a

fresh cycle hive at six point six percent. Now it sounds like we keep the FED on course for the seventy five basis point rate hike that a lot of FED speakers have said that they are more than certainly open to I think, so I think after the minutes yesterday, the bar is even higher for stepping down to a fifty basis point increase. So we're still looking for a seventy five basis point increase even if you did have

at somewhat of of a downside miss. And I think when you look at the core, there are some signs of softening, particularly in goods prices, but that services component is much slower, slower moving, and is looking like that's going to remain fair fairly strong over the next few months, and so I think the Fed is going to be pretty hesitant to read too much into a softer print to day, so they want to see a spate of lower readings, which I just I think it's going to

take time to manifest. How much time do you think it will take for higher interest rates to have some kind of impact on the services component of inflation. Well starting to see it now certainly in the housing market, but I think that's going to take time to feed into the actual CPI. So the owner's equivalent rent measure lags what we're seeing in the housing market by almost

fifteen months. The rental portion of that it's a little it's a little bit shorter, and we have seen rent slow down quite noticeably since the start be here if you're looking at private sector measures. So I think some moderation in the services side is coming. Um. It will be helped by the fact that we are seeing at least a slight slow down in wages. We're gonna get some help from just some some methodology quirks from things like health insurance here in October. So I think we're

getting there. But on the services side, it's it's only going to be incremental improvement. I think where you could see more meaningful improvement and inflation over the next couple of months is likely to be core good. Of course, we did get a higher than expected producer price index yesterday. Does that have any read through into what we could get this morning? Well, I think it's consistent with this

general story that serves those inflations. Still where you're seeing the general strength, and we certainly saw that in that other services component. But where we did see softness was in things like transportation warehousing costs, so that was down for a third straight month. We also saw trade services, so that's a gauge of retail and wholesale margins that had the smallest increase we've seen in months. So I think we are seeing disinflationary pressure coming from the good sector,

but still strength out of the services side. We got about a minute left here, Sarah. We've heard a number of FED speakers say that there's going to come a point where we need to sort of wait and see what kind of impact higher interest rates is having. When

do you think the FED gets to that point? So we think that the FED is going to remain pretty aggressive here through this year or so, looking for a SETID five basis point I can November and then stepping down to fifty in December, which is still historically strong. But we look at where of the side funds rate is likely to be a positive versus the core PC. That's probably more of a fourth quarter even December event.

So that's what's employment our view that we're still going to see some pretty strong rate hikes from the side over the next two meetings. Great to speak with you this morning, Sarah. Thanks for this. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, calling for month over month core inflation

to rise to a half percent. That's slightly higher than the consensus in the Bloomberg survey as far as the year over year numbers or consensus calls for eight point one percent on the headline level six point five h for Core cp I, we get the official numbers eight thirty am. Wall Street Time. We will break them down for you completely here on Bloomberg Radio. SMP futures right now ahead of all that up a half percent of

nineteen points. Staff futures up a hundred fifty two points, and NASTAC futures are higher by thirty six points ten your treasury little change the yield three point eight nine percent. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh weather, rainy, breezy today behind your seventy degrees upper sixties into the weekend with mostly sunny skies on Saturday, increasing clouds on Sunday. Right now sixty two in Central Park, broadcasting live from

the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E living free to Washington, d C, Bloomberg nine to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg N sixty to the country. Sirius XM to the one nine team and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business at and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and it's my thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm fair in Moscow. We are just about four

hours away from the open of US trading. Let's get you up to date on the news you need to know at this hour. US features are higher headed today's inflation report. The SNP five has declined for six straight days, and stocks entered the session at their lowest levels in November of Economist Hugh Johnson tells US it's unclear if

we're nearing a bottom. If we get into a recession in the first and second quarter, which I think we're gonna do, that's gonna be set up the time in which we're gonna start to get better news or news that the recession is going to end and the recovery is going to begin. Maybe news that the Federal Reserve is going to take its put off the brake, and under those conditions you'll get a turn in the stock market. And economist Hugh Johnson says he anticipates a hard landing

at a US recession. That's if the Fed holds to its current rate hike path. Well, the Fed does appear to be sticking to that path, Karen Minneapolis President and Neil cash Car signaling a lot has to change before the central Bank changes course. The bar for such a change is very high, because we have not yet seen much evidence that the underlying inflation, the services inflation, the wage inflation, the labor market, that that is yet softening, and so I think we're quite a ways away from

anything like that. Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Carry made the comments at a town hall in Wisconsin September. CPI readings do out at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. Stick with Bloomberg Radio and television for complete coverage all morning. Well, another recession called now Nathan, this time from the CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynahan, says his bank only expects a shallow contraction in the US, citing strong US consumers.

The consumers basically have more money and accounts by multiples and it did pre pandemic. They're earning more money, their credit qualities as high as ever been. They have more excess capacity on their cabarring than they've had de delinquencies are very low. Brian Monahan spoke at the Institute of International Finance meeting in Washington State. Tuned for more from Moynahan on Monday when we speak live with the Bank

of America's CEO on Bloomberg Radio and Television. On the other hand, careing the international energy agencies warning the global economy could enter a recession. That's after OPEC's decision to sharply cut oil production prends to push crude heiss prior higher, I should say, and they're moving that a now with nimex screwed up two tenths percent at eighty seven forty four, A barrel brent is hired by three tenths at seventy three.

And in Washington today, Nathan President Biden finds himself walking a tide robe over the world's demand for oil and gas. The White House is considering a price camp on Russian oil, but sources tell Bloomberg administration officials are worried Russia may retaliate by cutting offs. Applause. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he won't sell oil to any nation that participates in the price camp plan. Straight ahead, your latest local headlines,

plus a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks Scaring on Wall Street, sixty two degrees in Central Park, bad accident on Ruthree. Sacacus will say you about it. In Traffic First Michael Barr with what else is going on in New York and around the world. Michael Nathan, thank you very much. A federal appeals court allowed New York to continue in forcing its new gun law as it considers a lower court ruling that would block key provisions.

The decision from the Second U. S. Circuit Court of Appeals came after a federal district judge in Syracuse declared multiple portions of the law unconstitutional. Attorney General Letitia James says she would please the law would stay in effect. Abortion providers in New York State are seeing an influx of pregnant women from other states. Governor Kathy Hokel says the state is giving more money in order to keep

up with financial demand. Day. I'm proud to announce thirteen point four million dollars of grants going to abortion providers, fifty fifty new organizations, and collectively they operate a hundred twenty seven clinics together. Governor Ocle says the state of New York will protect a woman's right to a safe and legal abortion. The House elect committee investigating the January sixth attack on the Capitol will hold its final hearing today.

Since the last hearing, multiple members of Trump's cabinet have testified behind closed doors. Ukraine's capital region has been struck by Iranian made kama kaze drones. Kiev's regional governors said the strike early today occurred in an area around the capitol. Attacks on Kiev had become rare before. The capital city was hit at least four times during Monday's Russian strikes. Meanwhile,

Natal defense ministers are meeting again in Brussels today. They're gathered to discuss their ongoing a to Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is saying they're committed to the long haul. We're gonna stay with our efforts to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,

Secretary Lloyd Hall. A Connecticut jury decided that Alex Jones must pay nine hundred sixty five million dollars in damages to families and an FBI agent ravaged by the inful Wars Founders lie at the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre was a hoax. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a

hundred twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg. Nathan, thanks thirty five on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stenshower. All right, Nathan, Yankees and Guardians had last night off schedule to play game to tonight at the stadium and have tomorrow off. Yanks, We're gonna stick with a three man rotation, but they can't play tonight through to the expected rain and play games to tomorrow. They would have to go to a court starter if

the series is extended. Yanks, of course won the opener game two starters, you know tonight or tomorrow. Nestor Cortez and Cleveland seen Bieber and the nld S Phillies Embraves sat through a three hour rain delay in Atlanta, then scoreless until the sixth inning. Atlanta scored three times and won three nothing only seven hits in the game. It's the Phil's first loss of the postseason. In l A,

San Diego got home runs for Manning China. Jake Croninworth Padres beat the Dodgers five to three, l A three solo home runs and the lost. Both these series A tied of one preseason NBA Nicks lost in Indiana. R J. Barrett scorts twenty one points twenty three for Kyrie Irving and the next win at Milwaukee. The Islanders beginning season tonight they host Florida. The Devil's play game one at Philadelphia and the one of no Rangers at a road

trip tonight in Minnesota. Jets on Sunday take their two game went in straight to Green Bay, facing Aaron Rodgers. Rob Sala, the coach of the improved Jet, that you think we're better on the world year ago obviously, but you know it still comes back to us, and you know it's it's exciting just to be able to go out there and play a championship team, which is what which is what they are, championship team, Hall of Fame quarterback um. But it still comes back to us and

and performing with the best. Barge Lady Packers last Sunday in London, who that big lad and lots of the giants who are back home now. They're going for three wins in a row. Sunday taking on Baltimore. Week six begins tonight. It's Washington at Chicago. John actually are Bloomberg Sports. Thank you, Thank you, John seven on All Street. Time for the Tri State Business to report with Bloomberg Scott Carr.

While the rest of the rental market has begun to cool off, New York's most expensive apartments got even costlier in September. The median rent on new leases in September it was four thousand, twenty two dollars, down nearly two percent from August and down three percent from the record high set in July. A report from New York State Comptroller Thomas and Napoli shows New York City's blooming tech industry helped offset job losses and other sectors during the pandemic.

The report says the tech industry saw growth of nine point four percent, in the largest growth since largely because people became more reliant on technology during the lockdown and working from home i r S. Tax data analyzed by the Tax Foundation shows New Jersey is one of twenty two states that saw a net loss of adjusted gross income between twenty nineteen and twenty, including a net loss of more than eighteen hundred taxpayers. That's the Bloomberg Tri

State Business Report. I'm Scott Carr. Thanks Scott eight on Wall Street. Bloomberg Radio is on the air from San Francisco to New York, London to Hong Kong. Let's check in with our global news team for some of the top stories heard on our three hundred affiliate radio stations around the world. I'm Steve Poscan Chen Chen Wins in New York. We're talking about how Manhattan's priceest departments keep getting costlier. Um Corney Donahoe on wh S and Loulsville Divide.

An administration is said to be considering a complete ban on Russian aluminum. I'm Ginas Servetti in for w c CEO in Minneapolis. I'm reporting that the city comes in forty two on a list of the two hundred best cities for remote workers. I'm Caroline heap Go on bloom Big Dab Digital Media, blandon webbit Puting on the Government and the Bank of England at odds with the Governor sticking to the Friday deadline for the end of the

emergency bomb buying program. I'm Scott Carr. I'm KFBK and Sacramento. I'm reporting a Microsoft's new app helping workers and managers better balance life in the office and working from home. And those are some of the stories our twenty undred Bloomberg journalists and analysts working on this morning around the world. It's thirty nine on Wall Street. The following commentary is from Bloomberg Opinion. Feeling pinched, Sometimes you're four. One cake

can help. I'm Alexis Leean. This a calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. With rents, food prices, and childcare costs all rising, coming up with the cash to cover unexpected expenses is becoming more difficult. When interest rates were low, borring money to make up for a temporary shortfall was relatively easy and didn't come at such a price. That's changed. Credit card rates are approaching twenty percent, personal loan rates are north of ten percent, and home equity lines of credit can

be hard to come by for some people. Reducing retirement contributions temporarily or even borrowing from a four O one K maybe smarter than piling up high interests debt, but you have to do it the right way. If you're going to reduce your contribution amount, limit how many months you plan to do it for, and use future razors or bonuses to get back on track. If you have to borrow from your retirement account, make sure you know

the rules around repayment. Ultimately, any tweaks to a four one K plan should really be thought of as a stop gap fixed. I'm lexis Leondest. For more opinion, please go to Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion or opi and go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg opinion. You can hear Bloomberg opinion editorials every weekday at this time. Terminal customers can read more at O, P I n GO. Futures are moving higher, so our crude prices about prices

on a stark warning from the International Energy Agency. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh Weather. Rainy, breezy today with a high near seventy degrees, mostly Sunday Tomorrow. Up for sixties will be in the sunshine Saturday as well. Up for sixties. Clouds increase on Sunday. Right now sixty two in Central Park markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day. At Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape. This is a

Bloomberg business clash, and I'm Karen Moscow. Equity is extending to clients as caution prevails before highly anticipated US inflation data later today. The dollar edging higher. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, S and P futures are up about twenty points and down features up a hundred fifty four and nasday futures up thirties six then ten. Your treasury, that'll change, you'll three point eight nine percent. They yield on the

two year four point to nine percent. NIMEX screwed oil is about half percent, or forty cents at eighty seven dollars sixty seven cents a barrel. Comic school is up three ten percent or five dollars ten cents a sixteen eighty two sixty announced. The euro point at nine seven three five against the dollar, British pound one point one one four six and the yen one forty six point

seven eight. Bitcoin is at nineteen thousand dollars, down eight tens of a percent, and that's a Bloomberg Business Flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael Karen, thank you very much. The American public will get an opportunity to learn more about

the attack on the US Capitol later today. This is expected to be the final hearing, as the House elect Committee investigating January six returns for another hearing today, it's first since July uh The committee is expected to present Secret Service documents sub poenut following a report that the agency text messages from the day of the insurrection were deleted. In the NHL, the Bruins beat the Capitols five two

in Baseball's n l DS Playoffs. The Braves beat the Phillies three zip to even their series at a game of piece. The Padres beat the Dodgers five three to tie their series at one. One. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than seven hundred journalists and analyst and more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you, Michael. We're coming up to five forty nine

on Wall Street Life. In the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg Day Break. Well, it's all about inflation this morning. We're also keeping an eye on the oil market. Prices there are edging higher with a new warning that OPEX production cut announcement could tip the global economy into a recession. Joining us now, Will Kennedy, Senior Executive at A for Energy and Commodities for Bloomberg News. Well, this was a pretty direct warning that came in overnight from

the International Energy Agency. Tell us more about it and your read on the reaction we're seeing in the oil market this morning. Good morning. Yes, the world is still adjusting to the two million bowler cut that OPEC plus announced last week. It was a surprise to many people and it will tighten the oil market. And the argument that the i A Is making this morning is that

tightening the oil market may drive prices higher. As you said, prices are now settled well above ninety dollars a bowl on the important benchmark um and that will have an effect on economic growth and probably accentuate the slowdown and make it harder to fight inflation, perhaps meaning tighter monete policy monetary policy than we would have had without it. So for all those reasons. The i A revised down it's growth forecast for oil consumption next year and made

this warning about prospects for economy. As you say, we are still sort of trying to sort out the implications of this OPEC plus production kind I think last time we spoke, we talked about the fact that most OPEC producing nations aren't meeting their quotas anyway. So the two million barrel cut is kind of on paper, isn't it is this sort of turning into a self fulfilling prophecy that the idea is talking about here. Yeah, it won't

be two million barrels, but it will be meaningful. So those countries that can product cut production in a in a big way, principally Saudi of Abit also the night of that moments perhaps Q. Wait, there's trios trio of Gulf countries that make up the core of OPEC. They will cut production, and I think estimates for the real cut probably look at somewhere between seven hundred thousands to

million bollers a day. And in the market, which in some ways is already tight where there isn't a lot of spare production outside that Middle East region, that's a pretty meaningful adjustment which will probably keep oil prices high, and they would otherwise have been I guess adding to these concerns reporting that we're doing here Bloomberg News that the White House is starting to get worried that this push for a cap on prices for Russian oil could

end up backfiring for them. How could all these developments play out in the oil market. Well, the price cap was a solution that Washington's, especially the U. S. Treasury, had been pushing as a way to punish Russia for its invasion Ukraine, to cap Russia's export revenues from oil without constraining the exports of Russian oil and there by causing a really bad spike and vices over the winter. Now, what that idea didn't perhaps take account of is Russian reaction,

and it also seems opaque reactions. So one of the things going on in the background of OPEC policymaker's mind is the idea of a price cap. No matter what the lights and wongs are about punishing Russia, the very idea of a ice cap is a fairly extraordinary moved by consuming countries in the oil market, and how the oil market operates and there were many people in OPEC

who are not comfortable with that idea. And then we look at Russia, and Russia clearly said last week that if the price cap comes into play, they may well retaliate by cutting their production. So there you see that there is a little bit of concern at the price cap. Policy designed to keep oil flowing to to cap Russian revenues while making sure that international prices don't get out of hand, may not have that impact and may politically contribute to a scenario where we get more constraints and

supply and higher prices. Now, lot's of bright red warnings for the oil market as we watch green As far as the prices, girl, Will Kennedy of Bloomberg News, thanks for this great getting your insights this morning and just checking the prices now Karen name x Screwed is hired by a half percent at eighty seven seventy of Barrel as well mentioned Brent Is of ninety Well. Nathan is three on Wall Street. Time for our Bloomberg Law report.

Let's get at the legal stories we are watching this morning from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger, Morgan Stanley Unit and other previous owners of Tops Friendly Markets will face claims that they rendered the grocery chain insolvent while paying dividends to themselves. Zoe Top Business and e Commerce fashion retailer will pay nearly two million dollars to New York State from mishandling. A twenty eighteen data breach. Personal information on more than

forty five million shoppers was exposed. Royal Caribbean Cruises settled claims by a honeymooning couple who were burned while on an excursion to enactive volcano that erupted during their trip. Bloomberg Law everything you need, all on one legal research platform, including guidance analysis and Bloomberg market intelligence. Find out more at Bloomberg Law dot com. All right, Jeff, thanks, Now,

another legal story we're watching. The Department of Education aation has not even put out the application to receive student loan forgiveness yet, but there are already five lawsuits challenging President Biden student loan relief plan. Two of those lawsuits are being brought by Republican attorneys general in Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska,

and South Carolina. But the first hurdle for the plaintiffs starts before a judge can even get a question of whether Biden has the power to forgive billions of dollars in student debt. The plantiffs have to show they are standing or that the program will have them and a harm them rather in a concrete way. For more Bloombergy student Grosso speaks to Mark Canterrawitz, an expert in student loans and financial aid. It's hard to keep track of

the lawsuits because they keep on coming. How tough will it be for the opponents to get over the standing issue that they'll be harmed by the plan? Well, I think that is the key issue that the plaintiffs are going to have a lot of difficulty demonstrating that they have the legal standing to file a lawsuit. First of all, you have to demonstrate that you are harmed, and there are certain categories of harm that don't establish legal standing.

For example, taxpayers do not have the legal standing to file lawsuit against the federal government because they play two thousand seven U. S. Supreme Court ruling. And also bowers who do not qualify for student loan forgiveness can't demonstrate that they were harmed because you're not getting something that does mean you're worse off. Arizona said that this plan will harm the state's economy, increase its cost of borrowing, and limit the ability of the State Attorney General's office

to recruit legal talent. That sounds like they're really reaching. Well, there's kind of throwing the entire kitchens think at this hoping that something makes it through to demonstrate legal standing, because once one of these laws who demonstrates legal standing, then the arguments they can bring about the legality of the president's plan are much more powerful. And I believe that if they can make it to the u. S. Supreme Court, the President's student will forgiveness plan will ultimately

get blocked. But the challenges in demonstrating legal standing you have to establish that the farm was direct and not speculative,

not vague, and most of these lawsuits don't satisfy that. Now, with the sixth State Attorney General lawsuit, they're trying to argue that the state is harmed because one aspect of the President's plan was allowing bowers in the f f E L program to consolidate their loans into the direct loan program, and that would then reduce the loan volume that the state manages and services in the FVL program,

therefore causing financial harm. And that would have been a good argument except the U S part of Education responded by saying, Okay, the program bowers are no longer eligible. And this demonst rates a flawed legal strategy in the five lawsuits and the file to date, which is they jumped the gun. They decided to file lawsuit before the U. S Department of Education and given any loans or even

publish the student Loan forgiveness application. And as Mark Hantra, with an expert in student loans and financial aid, speaking with the Bloomberg Student Grosso, catch more of that interview plus analysis of the latest legal news by subscribing to the Bloomberg Law Podcast or downloading the show at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Attorneys can find exceptional legal research and business development tools at Bloomberg Law dot com and

on the Bloomberg terminal at b Law Go. And we have our top stories straight ahead on a day when futures are on the rise. This is Bloomberg

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