Bloomberg Daybreak: May 23, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio)

Plus Ukraine says up to one hundred of their soldiers die every day. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead, I'm Scotts Edinburg, Yankey swept in a doubleheader, the Mets pickup wind and the Rangers defend the hallmarks of that More coming up

in sports. That's all Trading ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Syrius Exam one nine team and around the world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business app.

Good morning, I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow and US DOT Index futures are higher this morning, where coming up to five out one on Wall Street, and we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, SNP futures are up about nineteen points down futures of a hundred thirty NASDAG futures of forty eight the decks in Germany's up about six tenths of upper cent ten year treasury down eight thirties seconds

held two point eight one percent. They yield on the two year two point six zero percent, and nine X screwed oil is up half percent and a hundred ten dollars eighty seven cents of barrel. John Currently rise in futures comes after the S and P five hundred touched bear market territory on Friday and closed lower for a seventh straight week. According to Bespoke Investment Group, is just the SNPs fourth streak of seven or more weekly losses

in the post World War two era. Alexafronis on the partner and co CEO at i e Q Capital dentament is terrible enough so we're we're ready for a bear market rally, but it's still probably a bear market rally until such time as there's evidence the economy that is very close to a bottom. Alexand friend of I e Q Capital is not alone in thinking stocks will head lower. According to the latest Bloomberg m Live Pulse, pol participants

see the SMP five hund are falling another ten percent. Well, many traders c the U S economy headed for recession. John the President of the United States, is not so sure. He answered the question at a press conference in Tokyo overnight. In your view, is a recession in the United States inevitable? No? Why not? Our GDPs are going to grow faster than China for the first time in forty years. How does

that mean we don't have problems? We do. We have problems with the rest of the world has, but less consequential than the rest of the world has than because of our internal growth and trends. At the same press briefing in Tokyo, President Biden made headlines so announced that the US would defend Taiwan from a China attack. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan? If it comes to that, you are That's the commitment we made.

President Biden also announced that a dozen Indo Pacific countries will join the US and a sweeping economic initiative designed to counter China's influence in the region. And earlier in his trip, during a stop in South Korea on Sunday, the President also address the growing concern over monkey pox cases around the world. Concern in the sense that were to spread this consequence, that's all they told. President Budden

says he's speaking to advisors about monkey pots. The President's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, says the U S has a relevant vaccine ready to be deployed to treat the disease if needed. Well. The U S monitors the monkey pods situation. John It is getting some relief this morning on the battle against the baby formula shortage, and we get the latest live from Bloomberg's Need a Young, Good

Morning Radio, Good Morning Karen. A plainload of more than seventy thousand pounds of baby formula arrived in the US on Sunday. It's called Operation Fly Formula, an emergency program to alleviate a national shortage that's left some parents scrambling

to feed their children. President Biden's top economic advisors says more formula will start arriving in stores as early as this week, and last week the President invoked emergency powers under the Defense Protection Act to spur domestic manufacturing of baby formula. Live in New York. I'm gonna need a

young Bloomberg daybreak. Thanks for after a two year hiatus because of the pandemic, the annual World Economic form and DAMO Switzerland his back, but without the hype of years past, and our Tom Keane covering the event from both Bloomberg Radio and television. This will be a different Davos, There's no question about it. I think the major thing is the change of cal under not January but May, and much more. It will be compressed pretty much from four

days down to three days. Travel schedules seem to be so tight for so many people attending. The war is absolutely front and center. There's no question about that. There will be some other themes, some ideas of risks as well, but the overarching theme besides the wars my colleague Paul Sweeney mentioned is the idea here of what do we

do about inflation? And that will transcend the dialogue all the way, all the way through this uh three days in Davos thanks to Bloomberg's time came reporting from Dambo's beginning this morning along with Lisa branmo Wits on Bloomberg Savallas. Stay with us for that coming up at seven am

All Street Time. And Christine Lagarde is one official who will be in Davos this week, John, But ahead of her appearance, the European Central Bank president is making some critical comments about cryptocurrencies that we had more from Bloomberg's Mariette today o in Brussels to give an it ToView to Dutch tele Vision, and she said that this thing is trash, it carries no value, and it's an investment vehicle for some to get very rich, but for other

very naive people to lose potentially a lot of money. But of course you know this is a central banker. Bitcoin crypto, everything around it we know essentially tries to defy central bankers. So of course what the central banker was ahead of these to be good to say that it's trash and she doesn't believe in it. And Bloomer's Maria today, oh so far. Leguard's comments are not impacting cryptocurrencies.

Checking Bitcoin right now it is up when in a third percent at thirty thousand, three hundred dollars, and we're seeing shares a vm Ware up up four and early trading. The clown Computing company in talks to be bought by Broadcomp. Details from Bloomberg's Doug Prisner. Vm Ware, based in Palo Alto, makes virtualization software. It allows a small number of servers to do more by enabling each to handle more than one program. Broadcom is a Singapore based giant in the

semiconductor industry. A deal would help it diversified beyond Pewter chips. Vm Ware has a market cap of around forty billion dollars so far this year. It shares her down in New York. I'm Dad Chrisner, Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, thanks Doug, right now, dall futures up one points, SMP futures of seventeen, the nasday futures of seven. This is daybreak. That's five o seven on Wall Street. Time to break in Michael Barr with Laura. What else is going on in New York,

end around the world? John, Thank you very much, Sir, An unidentified gunman has shot and killed another passenger on a moving New York City subway train. Police officials say it appears to have been an unprovoked attack and the victim for the eight year old man died in the hospital. In my p D Chief of Department Kenneth Corey. At this time, there are no arrests. The suspect is described as a dark skinned male who is heavy set with

a beard. Police say the shooting took place yesterday on a Q train traveling over the Manhattan Bridge at around eleven forty a m. That's the time of day when subway cars are often filled with families, tourists, and people headed a brunch. Recent subway crime has set New Yorkers on edge. Last month, a man opened fire inside a Brooklyn subway trains, scattering random shots that wounded ten people. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kashita told President Joe Biden that

Russia's aggression cannot be tolerated. The two leaders met in Tokyo to discuss regional security and economic cooperation. Speaking through a translator, Prime Minister Kashita. Prime Minister Kashida's comments come as a United Nations agencies said the war in Ukraine has displaced more than a hundred million people from their homes. Ukraine's president says up to one hundred of its soldiers

die every day in battle. Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming was one of five individuals last night to receive the two John F. Kennedy Profile and Courage Award. In her live streamed a substance speech, Cheney, who serves on the Special Committee investigating the January six Capital Riots, spoke about the continuous threat to democracy. We face a threat we have never faced before, a former president attempting to

unravel our constitutional republic. The award was also handed to Ukrainian President Zalinski and three US officials defending the integrity of the presidential election. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty hundred journalists and analyst more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barron, this is Bloomberg, John Michael, thank you, and it's now find Tim. I'm wall Street this time

for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's Scott Sidenberg. Good morning, Johnny. Gorcious Jerkin made forty three saves me because even a Jet had a goal and an assist as the Rangers beat the Hurricanes three one at the Garden yesterday. Chris Critter and Tyler Mott also scored as the Blue Shirts to fand home ice now trail two games to one. Here's head coach Gerard glen Gower play goal. That's how you went hockey games in tight games. So it was

the battle type battle again tonight. They obviously ego ego with an outstanding bust and that was the key. It was just the second win for the Blue Shirts over Carolina in their last ten meetings Game four at the Garden Tomorrow night Baseball, the Yankees dropped both games of a double header to the White Sox three one innit game one and a five nothing shutout lost in Game two. The Mets meanwild blank the Rockies to nothings. I want

Walker through seven scoreless innings. NBA Playoffs, the Warriors taken commanding three oh series lead over the Mavericks with a one on nine win. Golf was an exciting finish at the PGA Championship yesterday, and Justin Thomas is walking around for the quick top and he's got it. Two time major winner of the PGA Championship, Justice Toddis he's your hundred four p g A champion here at Southern Hills and puls Oklahoma. The call is heard right here on

Bloomberg Radio. Justin Thomas winning his second one or Maker Trophy outlasting Will's Allatorus in a three whole playoff. I'm Scott said, urged with Bloomberg Sports. Nathan all right, thanks Scott, and ahead of the cash open on Wall Street, we have town futures right now off on twenty seven points, SMB futures up twenty points, that's about half percent, and the ends A futures right now fifty eight points higher.

As far as treasuries, the benchmark ten year yields to eighty one right now, and the vis Wall Streets fear gage, the volatility index slightly elevated this morning, right now at twenty sixty. As looking at the euro one O six fifty eight, that is up slightly against the dollar. You're listening the Bloomberg tay break and just ahead, have stocks hit the bottom? Where do we go from here? We'll

put those questions to economist Dennis Gartman. That's straight ahead on Bloomberg Tay break markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com. The Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Tape is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. Songs in the You Wanna are advancing after President Joe Biden said Shina tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were under consideration. The dollar and

treasuries are retreating. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S and P futures up eighteen points down, futures up a hundred fourteen NASDAG futures up fifty two The decks in Germany's up four tenths of upper ten year treasury down nine thirty seconds, yield two point eight one percent, yield on the two

year two point six zero percent. Nimex Screwede oil is up nine ten percent or a dollar one at a hundred eleven dollars thirty two cents of arrol Comics gold is up more than one percent, or nineteen dollar sixty cents at eighteen sixty eight announced. The euro one point oh six seven seven against the dollar. British pound one point eight seven and the units at one seven point four six Bitcoin is higher, up one point three percent

at thirty thousand, three hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael, good morning, Good morning Karen. President Joe Biden sent the U. S Military would intervene to defend Taiwan in any attack from China in Tokyo. Biden says such a move would dislocate the entire region, be an action similar to what Russia has done in Ukraine.

A military plane carrying enough specialty infant formula for more than a half a million baby bottles arrived yesterday in Indianapolis. It is the first of several flights expected from Europe, aim that we're leaving a formulas shortage. In the NHL playoffs, the Rangers beat the Hurricanes three one. Carolina still leads that series two games to one. In the NBA playoffs, the Warriors beat the Mavericks one on nine one hundred

to leave the Western Conference Finals three games to zip. Baseball, the Yankees lost a double header to the White Sox. The MAT's Red Sox Orioles and Nationals won the Giants and A's lost. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Tank, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than twenty countries. Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg, John, Michael, thank you five twenty on Wall Street. We are lying for the Bloomberg

in Tryant Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Stocks on Friday avoided the official bear market label at least the SMP five hundred. But what is next. Let's get you set up for the trading day ahead with economist Dennis Garp and chair of the University of Akron's in Dama. Dennis always a pleasure happy Monday. Are we you rebalancing back to pre pandemic levels or is something else going on? John? I think actually been a bear market for quite some

period of time. I find it amusing that everybody wants to think that you don't owner a bear market U till you're down. I have always gone on the end of the auspice of the or the notion that anything under seven percent is a bear market territory. Uh and and you have to be more defensive once we once we take things down, seven is pretty far down before

you start to become bearish. I think the bear market started December, actually January, and as the chairman of the University of Ackrons in Downland, I I pushed us hard and actually got us to move a twelve percent of our portfolio out on December thirty one last year, going to the sidelines and owning two year and four year and five year treasury securities instead. And as I like to say, in a bear market, he or she who loses the least is the winner. And we saved though

call it what what are we down? That almost in the essence he almost in the nastac one, So we saved call it sevent one of the portfolio. We're doing a lot better than other people are. So I think you have to understand that this is a bear market. The FETE is taking away the fuel that had sponsored the bull market for such a long period of time. As the FETE added to its balance sheet, is the FET is now beginning to subtract from its balance sheet.

It's going to take years before it gets the balance sheet back to something more amenable. We've we've taken the balance sheet from what nine billion to nine trillion in the course of a decade. Taking taking away dollars a month for the next several years is going to is going to weaken the stock market for a protracted period of time. So I think it's a bear market, and I think people have to understand that fact, and I think people need to adjust their trading perspectives and adjust

their investment perspectives accordingly. Well, when does dip by become a viable strategy? Not for a long period of time into the future. I think alley selling is the viable strategy. Buying the dip was a nice strategy for almost a decade, but I think that that's behind us now. I think buying the dip is an ill advised decision. I think selling rallies is the advised decision, and I think that that's going to maintain for a long period of time.

We We've had a good solid bounce from Friday's low until in the futures market, until the highs made last night. I think that those highs made last night maybe taken out when we opened for trading in reality at at nine dirty this morning. But I think that what we what we need to understand is the rallies have been on very unlimited volume, that been on aggressive volume, and that's I think that's the hallmark of a bear market. So I think selling rallies the is the proper course

of action. Buying dips was the proper course of action, it is no longer the proper course of action. You mentioned treasuries. Is cash a better alternative at this point when stocks are down? Cash is not a bad place to be. Uh And and as I said that the University of Acron we've gone to two year, three year, four year, five year treasury notes, which I consider to be essentially cash. Cash holding cash is a is a

great place to be. In my own portfolio, I've got about twenty cash and the only major positions I have are in gold and coude oil and commodities. It's been I've had a nice period of time here for myself for the last several weeks, and I'm going to continue. So cash is I think the upper course of action, or at least a good course of action, where for the past decade it hasn't been. Now it is. I would imagine growth is really really off the table for

you at this point. Growth has been off the table. Growth will remain off the table, and the growth it is probably not going to be on the table for at least another six months, maybe a year more. Uh. The damage that has been wrought in the growth of portfolios of the of the country by in in in in individual accounts has been extraordinary, and I think that damage is going to get warm, not better. So again, I think buying the dip is not the course of action.

Selling the rally is the proper course of action. Getting less long is the proper way to be. I hate to say that much more fun having bull markets. The women are prettier, the clothing is nicer, to the music is is pleasant to dance is lovely. And in the bear markets music becomes a tonal and people become ugly and nasty. And I'd much prefer a bowl market. But and I hate to be bearish, but I think that's

the proper course, never nasty or ugly. Dennis Garman, Dennis, you're actually gonna come back if he would, uh in the next half hour to continue our conversation. Maybe we'll

pick up the commodities at that point. Account of as Dennis Gartment appreciate that and ahead of the cash of them on Wall Street right now futures in the green, the down futures of one and thirty seven points, that's a rise of four tenths of a percent, the SMP five futures of twenty one points a rise of half a percent, and the futures right now fifty nine points higher. That's up half a percent. Dennis mentioned treasuries the benchmark ten year yield two eighty one of three basis points.

You're listening to Bloomberg day Break out of Bloomberg Weather for Rob Carolin. Partly sunny, cooler today and a lot less hum of the heights amperture topic out at about seventy five cloudy tonight blows fifty five to sixty degrees.

Broadcasting wide from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg E Living Free to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one, to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixteen to the country Sirius XM D A one nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg day Break. It's five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. We're just about four hours away from

the open of US trading. Let's get you have to date on the news. You need to know what this show were with futures higher amid expectations traders will help lift the S and P five after a touch bearer market Territory Friday. Despite talks of a US recession, Credit Sweet CEO Thomas scotch Stein said he doesn't see what happening. People are someone insecured in risk off mode. But our house, he was still, is that there won't be a recession

neither this year the next year. There won't be slowed down Credit See CEO Thomas Gonstein was speaking in Davos with Bloomberg's Francie Lagua. Behind Weldavos World Economic Forum is bank this year tuned into Bloomberg Television and Radio for full coverage this week. Karen Stocks also jumped this morning after President but they indicated China tariffs imposed by the Trump administration or under consideration. Speaking in Tokyo, the presidents

that he believes the US will avoid a recession. He also declared the U S would defend Taiwan. Should China attack. My expectation is it will not happen, it will not be attempted. My expectation is a lot of it depends upon just how strong in the world makes clear that that kind of action is going to result in long

term disapprobation by the rest of the community. President Biden also announced that a dozen Into Pacific countries will join the US and an economic initiative designed to counter China's influence in the region. Well before boarding Air Force One in South Korea yesterday, John the President addressed the growing monkey pox outbreak. Well, heaven't told me the level of exposure yet, but it is something that everybody should be concerned about. We're working out of art figure out what

we do. President Biden said he spoke to advisors about the monkeypox virus and while the US monitors monkey pox is getting relief on the battle against the baby formula shortage and Bloomberg's we need a young joins this life with more. We need a good morning, Good morning John. A plainload of more than seventy thousand pounds of baby formula arrived in the U S Sunday. It's called Operation Fly formula, an emergency program to alleviate a national shortage

that's left some parents grambling to feed their children. President Biden's top economic advisor says more formula will arrive in stores as early as this week. Last week, the President invoked emergency powers to spur domestic manufacturing of baby formula. Live in New York. I'm re need a young Bloomberg daybreak, A right re need to thank you. Turning back to equity shares, a vm Ware up in early trading. The cloud computing company isn't asked to be bought by Broncom again.

Futures are moving higher and straight ahead your latest local headlines plus the check of sports. This is Bloomberg. Thanks Wall Street. Hand signed to bring in Michael Barr with more on what else is going on to New York end around the world, John, Thank you, sir. The search is on for a gunman who shot a man on the subway train in Manhattan Sunday morning. The suspect flat The forty eight year old victim died later at a hospital. In my p D. Chief of Department Kenneth Corey's says

the victim was shot in the chest. According to witnesses the suspect was walking back and forth in the same train car and without provocation, pulled out a gun and fired it at the victim at close range. In my p D Chief of Department Kenneth Corey says there was apparently no prior contact between the victim and the suspect. Meanwhile, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs says the forty eight year old man shot and killed was an employee of

the firm. David Soloman says Daniel Enriquez was a beloved member of the company for nine years. Solomon says the firm was devastated by this senseless tragedy and our deepest sympathies there with Dan's family. At this difficult time, Russia is intensifying its attacks in eastern Ukraine as President Volodimir z Lensky calls for even more powerful weapons to come to the Russian invasion. Zelenski says between fifty two hundred

Ukrainian soldiers die every day on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the threat of possible nuclear attacks can nues from President Putin. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullin says while he doesn't believe Putin will actually use nuclear weapons. It's a possible action they have to consider. It's very difficult to know what Footing is thinking on any particular time. He's obviously spoken to this. I think we need to

make sure that we consider it. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mullen spoke on a d c S this week, which can be heard Sundays on Bloomberg. Mask requirements and advisories are back in cities with rise in COVID nineteen cases. Philadelphia is one of them. Starting today, face coverings. There will be mandatory indoors and on school buses. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

and analysts in more than a hundred twenty countries. And Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John, Michael, thank you. Find thirty six on the wall. Stree toned down for the Bloomberg Sports up Day and here Scots, I thanks John. The Rangers desperately needed a win yesterday to avoid falling down three games to none against the Hurricanes. The Goorcius Turkey was up for the task. Stopping forty three shots as the Blue Shirts defeated the King's three to one

Game four at the Garden. Tomorrow night else Where, the Lightning take a three games to then lead over the Panthers with a five one win. Edmonton goes up two games to one over the Flames with a four one victory. Baseball Rolta Shapman surrendered a tie breaking home run to aj Pollock in the top of the ninth inning as the Yankees dropped Game one of a double header to

the White Sox three to one. They would also lose Game two, being shut out five nothing despite Luis Severino going seven scoreless innings, the Yankees losing two straight, but just the second time this sees it, it mets me.

While blank the Rockies to nothing, Taiwan Walker throwing seven scoreless innings NBA Playoffs, the Warriors take a three oh series lead over the Mavericks with a one on nine in at Dallas, Game four of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight in ball in Miami, Leeds two games to one. Golf was an exciting finish at the PGA Championship yesterday, and Justin Thomas is walking around for the quick tap and he's got it. A two time major winner of

the PGA Championship. Justin Thomas, He's your hundred fort PGA champion here at Southern Hills and Pulsa, Oklahoma. The call is heard right here on Bloomberg Radio. Justin Thomas winning his second one or Maker Trophy, outlasting Will's Salatorus in a three whole playoff, Tom Scott said, Bloomberg Sports All Thanks Scott, five thirty seven on Wall Street time out for the Tri State Business Report. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's and Query. Supply chain snarls and labor shortages

threatened to impede the rebounded Manhattan's retail market. Some tenants have delayed opening spaces because of challenges and obtaining equipment and staff. Others had to wait for inspections and permits

into the real estate part of New York. You know, New Jersey could be the cheapest state in the country to own a n e V. The head of a report from Energy Innovation, Policy and Technology says the state offers a five thousand dollar rebate when you buy or lease in e V. There's no purchase tax on those vehicles, and there are other offers that make owning electric vehicles

more affordable. A two month initiative to promote cultural programs in Ridgefield, Westport and Wilton, Connecticut, attracted more than one hundred people of theaters, restaurants and businesses in the three towns. This is according to a new survey following the inaugural Culture Crawl. That's your Bloomberg Trying State Business Report. IMD Corey Dank said it is five thirty eight on the Wall Street. Bloomberg Radio is on the air from San

Francisco to New York, London to Hong Kong. And let's sent in now with our global news team for some of the top stories heard on our three hundred affiliate radio stations around the world. I Ve Potas go on Ted Ted Winds in New York. We're talking about how a lot of stock market participants expect still more pay get to come this year. Um Corney Donahoe on w h A s and Louisville. American car shoppers are least likely to buy an electric vehicle compared to overseas. I'm

Gina Servetti in for w c CEO in Minneapolis. I'm reporting that many states, including Minnesota, have unemployment rates well below three point six percent the national average. I'm Stephen Caroll and Bloomberg DAB Digital Radio and London. We've been reporting on the new Economic Park for the Asia Pacific, danced by Pastor Joe Biden visiting Japan. I'm Ed Cory on w p A M in Cleveland. I'm reporting Peter point his unveiled new hotel property and new dining option.

And those are some of the stories. There are twenty seven hundred Bloomberg journalists and analysts are working on this morning around the world. It is fine thirty nine on Wall Street. The following is an editorial from Bloomberg Opinion. By threatened into block the enlargement of NATO to include Finland and Sweden, Turkish President retch up type Urdawan has revived doubts about Turkey's reliability as a member of the Alliance.

US and European leaders should make clear that air to Wan's behavior undermines NATO's collective security and should be willing to impose consequences if it continues. After all, this isn't the first time aer Towan has threatened to disrupt NATO's broad plans unless Turkey's narrow interests are served, NATO can afford to subject itself to repeated brinksmanship until Aardwan changes

his behavior. Turkish participation in NATO planning and exercises should be reduced to the bare minimum, and if mild rebukes fail, harsher punishments should be considered. NATO's message should be simple. The security of the group must not be held hostage by one repeat offender. This editor was written by the Bloomberg Opinion Editorial Board. I'm David Shipley. For more Bloomberg opinion, please go to Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion or opiango

on the Bloomberg terminal base has been Bloomberg Opinion. Bloomberg Opinion editorials can be heard every weekday. At this time, terminal customers can read more at O P I N go Right now down theaters up two D five points, SMP theaters up thirty at the Bloomberg weather forts today becoming partly sunny, cooler less you than the high temperature than its seventies to like mostly cloudy, low tempo of

years fifty five to sixty degrees. Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash and I'm kmeron Moscal stocks and that you want advancing. After President Joe Biden said China tariffs imposed by the Trump adminish station. We're under consideration.

The dollar and treasuries are retreating. US dock index futures are rising him at expectations market hunters will help full the S and P five hundred back from bear market levels. We check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S and P futures up about twenty seven points down, futures of A hundred eighty four NAS day futures up seventy two. The decks in Germany is up half percent. Foot See one hundred up nine ten

percent in the CAC in Paris little change. The nat K to twenty five in Japan gained one percent well. The Hang Sing in Hong Kong was down one point two percent ten. Your treasury down eleven thirty seconds yield two point two percent. They yield on the two year two point six zero percent. Nine max screwed oil of one percent up a dollar thirteen and a hundred eleven

dollars forty one cents of barrel comes. Gold is up one point one percent, or twenty dollars nineties cents and one thousand, eight hundred sixty nine dollars thirty cents and ounce. The euro one point oh six eight two against the dollar British found one point to five seven seven, and the yen at one seven point five five. Bitcoin is moving higher, up one and a half percent at thirty thousand and three hundred fifty dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash.

Now here's Michael bar with more on what's going on around the world. Michael Karen, thank you very much. President Joe Biden says the US would intervene militarily of China where to invade Taiwan. Speaking in Tokyo, President Biden's as such a move would dislocate the entire region. China has reacted to the comments angering Beijing. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, don't underestimate the resolve for China to protect its territorial integrity.

It considers Taiwan to break away province C seventeen military cargo plane carrying about seventy eight thousand pounds of specialized baby formula from overseas landed in Indiana yesterday to help ease the shortage. Government officials say this shipment has enough product to make five hundred thousand, eight ounce bottles of formula. In the NHL Playoffs, the Rangers beat the Hurricanes three one. Carolina's still leads the series three games to two games

to one. In the NBA Playoffs, the Warriors beat the Mavericks one O nine one hundred to lead the Western Conference Finals three games to zip. Baseball, the Yankees lost a doubleheader. The Matt's Red Sox Orioles and Nationals won the Giants and A's lost. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than twenty hundred journalist and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries and Michael barn This is Bloomberg, John, Michael,

thank you. It is five forty nine on Wall Street. We are live for the Bloomberg Interhantbroker Studios. Let's continue our markets coverage this morning. Bring back our guest economists. Dennis Gartman, share of the University of ancoradi down the former publisher of The Garment Letter Dennis. For those that didn't catch the first part of our conversation, can you just reiterate your stance that we are firmly in the

grip of a bear market. There's no question in my mind that where it's firmly in the grip of a bear market. I find it amusing John that people want to think that we don't enter a bear market tour down twenty percent. To my mind, anytime we're down more than seven, you should at least be respectful. And I think anything under ten more than ten is a bear market, is a I think a comical UH threshold number two to be concerned about. I think we're in a bear market.

I think we began the bear market January fifth of this year. Bear markets begin at the peak of of of stock market. In January fifth was the peak. I think we're in a bear market that may last for quite some period of time as the FED takes away the fuel that has sponsored the bull market for the past several years. The fact that the Fed is has taken its balance sheet from nine billion dollars I'm almost a decade ago to nine trillion dollars as of a couple of weeks ago that has been the fuel that

sponsored the bull market. The ft is to take away billion dollars a month, actually beginning in two months. That they're going to take sixty five billion for the next two months, and then after that billion dollars out of the balance sheet to the course of the next several years. The fuel that had sponsor the bull market is being taken away, and you have to be careful. So as I like to say, in a bear market, one who

loses is the winner. As the chairman of the University of Akrons Endowment, I got us to move almost twelve of our portfolio out December thirty one of last year. We're still going to be down for the year thus far, but we're gonna be down a lot less than everybody else is, simply because we're losing less. We we moved to the sidelines about two year, three year, four year, five year treasury security instead, and we I think we've done a good job of of mitigating the losses that

other people are having to experience. So I think the spare market lasts for a period of time, probably at least several more months, maybe even a year or more. And you have to be careful. So I say that this is not the time to buy a weakness, This is the time to sell into rallies. There was hope that the bargain hunters will step in at least for the S and P five where the PE overall is somewhere around nineteen. Is that a bargain now, yeah, PE is when they get to fourteen or fifteen, may well

be a bargain. P's and nineteen or I think normal, uh not not terribly cheap by any history tendency. The fact that we got over what price learning is multiple six months ago, to me that was extremely high. So again, selling to strength is the proper course of action. Buying weaknesses not the proper course of action. And I hope that I'm clear. We contracted the last quarter. What does

your betting in terms of recession at this point? I think that we're gonna have as as we know, the first quarter was down to at one point four percent g d P. We're probably gonna have a slight positive second quarter GDP, but I think by the third quarter will have negative GDP. Again, it won't be the material maybe reflective of what happened in the first quarter. The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP growth.

That's not going to happen for quite some period of time yet, simply because the second quarter numbers will be slightly positive, but I think will be in a reasonably evident recession by the third quarter of this year, lasting until the early part of next year. It will not be as ugly as we went through. It will not be as ugly as we went through in nineteen seventy two to seventy four. It will not be as ugly

as we went through in the nineteen eighties. But nonetheless it's going to be negative GDP growth, and the unemployment rate will probably start ticking back up above four maybe get back to a more manageable five percent by the course of the mid year next year. You brought up the seventies. Um, I'm looking at the personal consumption expended, your core price index at this point nowhere near replicating

the nineteen seventies. Does that offer salace? That there is marginal solace to be to be gained by that, U you and I have We've been around for a long period of time. I can remember when I remember when the thirty year bond had had a fourteen and a quarter percent coupon and you couldn't give it away in the early nineteen eighties. That was that was what the result of the inflation of the nineteen seventies still being linked about are we going to have inflation of about

five and six percent for protected period of time? Yes? Are we going to have inflation numbers that were evident back in the nineteen seventies and early eighties, And no, we're not going to go back there again. All right, broad commodities, they've been in a rally. Is that going to persist probably for some period of time. The grain markets, I think are still extremely strong. Corn looks like go a lot higher. Weed looks like it wants to go

a lot higher. The only commodity that I'm really not terribly bullish of is the bean a soybeans, simply because we've delayed the planning of the corn market rather dramatically because of the old weather that has persists across the Midwest, and at the margin, the last percent of acreage that didn't get into corn may go into beans. So the only commodity that I'm really not terribly bullish of is is soybeans. I'm still bullish of the grain of the

crude oil. Always remember that markets predated where the front months are gaining upon the back months on up on updates and down days is a bowl market, and the front month is now trading over two dollars and fifty cents premium of the second future back that the market and crude oil continues to be backquidated and baquidated, markets go higher, not lower. Yeah, You've always told us to look for the term structure and the indications that that offers.

Right now, Yes, it needs to be quite bullish that the term structure continues to be inverted in crude oil. As long as the term structure remains inverted, you cannot be short. You have to be long if you're going to trade crude oil at all. So they it wants to go higher, and I'm I'm still the only positions that I have in my own retirement account. I'm long of gold, and I'm long of crude oil purveyors stocks and that that pay large dividends xx on that sort

of thing. It's been I've been very fortunate the markets moving from the lower left to the upper right in that instance, and I'm going to continue to hold them.

Commodities are settled in dollars, So what's the dynamic is the dollar strengthens crude, it makes commodity prices for foreign countries a lot more expensive, and it's going to make that it's I think supportive of crude of commodity prices generally, So be careful if you're a third world country, if you're a developing nation, you've got a real problem because you've got rising commodity prices and a rising dollar. You're

getting hurt and both direct and gold. I know you're not a gold bud, but how is gold acting as a hedge right now or beyond. It's acting quite well, to be quite honest, I think the fact that we're training above eighteen fifty is very impressive. The fact that it's doing so even as the bond market wants to try to make some loads. Of the bond market wants to try to to go a little bit higher. Rates want to come down just a tad, and it's impressive that the gold market is holding its rally and doing

reasonably well. So again, at the University of Akron, I moved this out of a year ago almost February last Well, actually it's over a year, fourteen months ago. I moved three percent of the portfolio out of out of stocks into three percent into gold. And I'm trying to convince my compatriots on the on the to buy a little bit more gold because it's been it's been working. So I think of all the of all the hedges that you want to have on in place of the inflationary

circumstances to prevail. You want to own the gold market. You want to avoid, if at all possible, cryptocurrencies. Okay, well, we heard from Christine Leguards saying and as it's this garbage, So you're you're in good company on that front. Economist, dentist, government share of the University of acron endowmod and former publisher of the Garment Letter as always a pleasure of dentist, appreciated head of the cash open on Wall Street in the green the down futures right now forty six points.

That's a rise of half a percent, smp E many futures they're up twenty they're up half a percent. And then as their futures right now up forty five points of four ten percent ten year yield at eighty two. That's of four basis points you're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak