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Bloomberg Daybreak: March 31, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio)

Mar 31, 202236 min
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Bloomberg Daybreak with Karen Moskow and Nathan Hager.

GUESTS:
Dr Julie Norman
Lecturer:Politics & International Relations
University College London
on Ukraine

Jeff Mortimer
Dir:Investment Strategy
Bank of New York The
on Market Outlook

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

And it's now five oh seven on Wall Street where forty six degrees in Central Park. That's emergency roadwork on the New Jersey Turnpike. Look at the details and traffic shortly. First, Michael Bars here with more on what's going on in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. New York City Task Force has removed almost two hundred forty homeless encampments over the past two weeks.

It's part of Mayor Eric adams strategy to clean up public spaces and connect people living on the streets with housing and social services. As if Mayor, of all of us, including my homeless brothers assistants, I'm not leaving any New York Is behind. We're moving together and that is the goal of what we must accomplish. I'm not abandoning anyone. I'm not believing that dignity is living in a cardboard without a shower, without a toilet, living in terrible living conditions.

Mayor Adams has more than three hundred homeless people have accepted social services New York City COVID nineteen. Cases are rising again, particularly among people to thirty four years old. Surge appears to be concentrated in Manhattan, the most vaccinated burrow. The New York City Department of Health posted a warning on Twitter saying they strongly recommend New Yorker's mask up indoors and get booster shots. A deadly strain of bird flu that's been raising egg prices ahead of Easter has

been discovered in five New u s States. According to the Department of Agriculture, the virus increasingly is threatening American poultry exports. The influenza was discovered in Massachusetts, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wyoming. Chris Rock says he is still processing the Will Smith slap at the Oscars. Rock played before a sold out show in Boston last night. The fifty seven year old comedian got a long standing

ovation from the crowd. Meanwhile, the Motion Picture Academy is now revealing that Smith was asked to leave the Oscars after he slapped Rock, but he refused. The Academy says it has begun disperlinary proceedings against Smith, which could include expulsion. Actor Bruce Willis is stepping away from his acting career. His family says he has recently been diagnosed with aphasia,

which is impacting is cognitive abilities. Dr Jagen Polai is a cognitive neurologist at the Cleveland Clinic Center for Brain Health. There is a change in the language function of the person because of blind change happening the language part of the brain. Dr Belin told a d c a phasia can be caused by an injury, stroke, or denderative disease. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven

hundred journalists analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Nathan, tough news for Bruce Willis. Thank you, Michael. Coming up to five ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg Sports Up, Tay, Good morning, John Stanshawn. You morning, Nathan. It has obviously been a much better season for the Rangers than it has been for the next they'll be a play off hockey at

the Garden, almost certainly not playoff hoops. Last night Rangers won, Knicks lost their season high four game winspe came to an end. Charlotte one one fourteen. Miles Bridges score thirty one points, Flamelo Ball had twenty and fifteen assists Evan for the Knicks with thirty. As to the Rangers back and forth game in Detroit and didn't have to go on the power play they score? Is it Crider or cop of the doorstep? Prider took the shot. It's a

power play goal. We're tied at four. Miller on the ice, cop pannerin far circle. Pennarities got cop gets at the cop shoots at scores and crew copping over time. How the Rangers win five full WPN had it a time? Goal was by Chris Cryder. That's his forty six. It's the Rangers sports may win. Some coaching news. First one Seaton Hall, where Kevin Willard recently left to take over

at Maryland. Shaheen Halloway had been Willard's top assistant, first at Iona, then for eight years at Seton Hall, where Holloway was once his star point guard. So he might have gotten this job even if he hadn't just coached St. Peter's to arguably the greatest Cinderella run and n C double A tournament history. No surprise, Holloway leaving the Peacocks stayed in New Jersey, the coach of the Pirates, but a big surprise last night out of Tampa Bay, Brose

Arians stepped down. He's going to assist Bucks GM Jason White, Todd Bowles, who was the defense supportator before that. The head coach of the Jets takes over. The sixty nine year old Arians has had health issues, but insisted that was not the reason for this movement. John Dash Award and Bloomberg Sports Nathan Okay, John, thanks right now. S and P futures up four points, Staff Futures down six,

nasdack futures hi are by fifty seven points. NIMEX s crew down five point three per cent to a hundred two dollars twelve cents of barrel on word, the Biden administration could be thinking of a massive release from the strategic reserve. We'll talk about the war next with Julie Norman of uc L. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather cloudie, breezy today, some afternoon showers possible of the high year seventy turning partly sunny and breezy. Tomorrow.

Upper fifties will be the low fifties under a mix of sun and clouds on Saturday. Right now forty six in central Park, Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Take, this is a Bloombern business lash and I'm Karin Moscow and energy stocks are dropping with oil prices and investors Way reports that the Biden administration is considering a massive release of crude from US

reserves to find inflation. Stocks in Europe are set for the first quarterly declient since US dock index futures are pairing in advance, and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg U S and P Future is up six points right now, DAL Future is little changed. Nasdack Future is up sixty eight. The decks in Germany is little changed as well. Ten your treasury up to thirty seconds. You have two point three

three percent. They yield on the two year two point to nine percent. Nine X Screwed oil is down five point six percent on six dollars eight cents and a hundred one dollar seventy cents of barrel. Comma School down six tents per cent or twelve dollars at ninety eight announce the euro one point nine against the dollar, British pound one point three one to seven, the ends at one two point oh three and Bitcoin this morning lower down two chance per set at forty seven thousand, one

seventy dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Muchael Barrow with more on what's going on around the world. Muchel, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Ukraine's president says his country's defense against the Russian invasion is at a turning point, but Lodamir Zelenski again press the United States for more help, hours after the Kremlin's forces renegged on a pledge to

scale back some of their operations. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian negotiators as officials from Ukraine and Russia are set to resume talks via video conference tomorrow. As the regular NBA season winds down. The next Celtics and Warriors lost, the Wizards won. Coach Sheeen Holloway is leaving St. Peter's for Seaton Hall, just days after helping the Little Jesuit School make history becoming the first fifteenth seed to reach the n C

Double A Tournaments Elite eight. In the NHL, the Rangers beat the Red Wings and o t five four Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Yeah, you'd think that coach would be in high demand now, Thank you, Michael. It's five nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and Julie Norman is with us this morning, co director of the Center on US Politics at University College London, as we continue following the latest on the war in Ukraine, Professor, Good morning. As we heard from Michael Barr in the news, talks could resume tomorrow between Ukrainian and Russia negotiators. Is there any reason to think that the discussions would make any more headway than what we saw in Turkey earlier this week? Well,

good morning, Nathan. One of the challenges right now is what we're hearing out of the negotiations and then what we're hearing from the Kremlin and seeing on the back

a field tend to be quite different. So on the one hand, there was some apparent progress made earlier this week, at the meetings in Turkey, with very frank discussions about Ukraine's potential neutral status moving forward with central security guarantees from other states UH and talking about more of a focus on what the territories in the East will look like in the future. So I think that's still where

the crux of the negotiations will ultimately end up. But unfortunately we're not seeing is a ceasefire or withdrawal of troops that would actually allow for those more substantive UH negotiations to happen. And indeed, Russia's claims that they would be drawing down some of their offenses near Kievan elsewhere have not borne out. In practice, we're still seeing we're still seeing offenses in those areas as well as in

the East. So until things actually changed on the ground, it's going to be difficult for the real substance measures to move forward at the table in the negotiations. Yeah, that's certainly what we're hearing from officials on the ground in Ukraine as well as from the Pentagon. They're terming the Russian claims of de escalation as more like a repositioning. What does that say about where this war could go

from here? Well, I think it's that the war will likely go on for for quite a bit longer, unfortunately, but it's it's also most likely that Russia will start

emphasizing their operations in the east much more strongly. I think it's pretty clear now and definitely from the start even of the the invasion, that Putin is really trying to control the dun Bus region, um Danetsk and enhance those areas that already had large separatist regions within them, trying to expand those trying to build a land bridge

to Crimea. So in terms of territory and where I think we'll see the offenses focus, I do think we'll see that shift to the east, but again I think we'll still see that pressure on other parts of the country as well. Um, all we can hope is that these negotiations, which have been you know, extremely sluggish but are like some extremely baby steps of progress, will just keep chipping away at the meantime to a point that Zelenski and Putin can actually meets and and trying work

out what this might look like. It's also been very interesting to hear the Biden administration sharing intelligence in the way it has even before the war began telegraphing that Russia would be invading within days. And now the White House saying that they have intelligence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by his military about how the war is going. What is the advantage for the US

and allies to share intelligence in this way. Yeah, with an interesting approach, Nathan, And it's one that the US started, as you noted, before the invasion, essentially to try and get out ahead of Putin's own misinformation. So again, at that time, they were worried that Putin would kind of orchestrate a false flag incident, that he would you accuse NATO or Ukraine of you know, using chemical weapons or

doing something like this. So they're trying to get out ahead of some of the disinformation they thought might be coming from the Kremlin. This latest kind of reporting now, I think, is again just trying to keep the pressure

on Russian on Putin in particular. Um, this intelligence from yesterday suggesting that Putin is not getting the full picture from his military commanders is uh, you know, I think something that obviously we're we're watching the intelligence, but also most of us watched that press conference before the invasion started. Where Putin's advisors had to take it up and pretty much tell him exactly what he wanted to hear. So I don't think that's super surprising that some of his

advisors are still probably under that kind of pressure. And in our last minute here, Professor, we're expecting President Biden to announce this massive release of oil from the Strategic reserve, something like a million barrels a day. Is that a sign that the war is starting to take a pinch on this country? Now? Well, I think we've certainly seen

the pinch, Nathan. You know, crude is up from this time last year, Gases at four for an average of Americans right now, so I think we're seeing that pinch. Biden has been under pressure from both parties to uh to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It's interesting they did release about fifty million barrels from the reserve back in November.

That helps momentarily, but prices obviously went up again. What they're talking about now is releasing one million barrels per day over several months, so trying to have it be more of a slow release as to help with prices. So it could help in the short term, but in the long term old depend a lot on US demand and also how other countries play this, if other members of the Internal International Energy Agency like Japan, France, Germany do the same, and also what OPEC plus chooses to

do with their meeting tomorrow. As always, thanks for joining us, Julie Norman, Co director of the Center on US Politics at University College London. Stay well us, We're gonna get much more on the White House oil release plans and stocks get ready to close out their worst quarter in two years. Because we check your top stories of the morning on Bloomberg day Break Bloomberg eleven three oh weather cloudy, breezy,

some afternoon showers possible. The high your seventy today, you'll turn partly sending breezy tomorrow with highs in the upper fifties, low fifties, mix of sun and cloud Saturday right now forty seven in Central Park, broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E Living Freedom to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the Country, Sirius XM tod A one nine team and around the globe,

the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and it's five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow, and we're just about four hours away from the open of US trading. Let's get you have to date on the news you need to know at this hour. Ukraine says cease fire talks with Russia could resume tomorrow. This would follow negotiations that led to no cease fire but did have Russia

saying it would de escalate. Pentagon's spokesman John Kirby says it's less a de escalation and more like a repositioning. Some of those troops we assess a repositioning into Belarus. We don't have an exact number for you, but that's

our early assessments. Uh, none of them, we have seen none of them reposition to their home garrison in Pentagon spokesman John Kirby says the southern city of Mariopol is still taking heavy fire the meantime, Karen, it looks like Vladimir Putin may not be getting accurate information on the war.

Here's White House Communications Director Kate Bettingfield. We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because the senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth. Kate Beddingfield that the White House did not specify how the US got its intelligence on Putin, Well Nathan. Energy prices have climbed

sharply since the start of the war. Now, the Biden administration is weighing a massive release of oil from US reserves, and we get the latest live from Bloomberg's Randia Young. Good morning, Randina, Good morning Karen. Bloomberg sources say the White House is considering releasing about a mill in barrels of oil a day from US reserves for several months.

The total release could be as much as one eighty million barrels, and along with the plan comes a diplomatic push for the i e A to coordinate a global release by other countries. A final decision on that has not been reached yet, but Bloomberg sources say the White House may make an announcement on the US release as soon as today live in New York. I'm gonna need

a young Bloomberg daybreak. Okay, we need a thanks in checking all right now, and I'm ex Screws down five and a half percent at a hundred one dollar eighty nine cents of barrel. Brent Is at a hundred seven sixty eight. That drop is helping lift stock futures, but global equities are still on track for their worst quarter in two years. Aaron Kennon is CEO at Clear Harbor

Asset Management. You know, I think we're heading into a stormy or weather over the next several weeks and perhaps months, and uh, I think investors are to be prepared for that. Aaron Kennon a Clear Harbor SAEs higher interest rates as a major headwind for stocks and incorporate news. This morning, Nathan, we have word of a data breach at Apple and Facebook. Bloomberg News has learned that Apple and Meta platforms provided customer data to hackers who posed as law enforcement officials.

Straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg Sparing thirty three on Wall Street, where forty six degrees in Central Park off to a quiet start on the roads. Hope, I didn't jink sit you find out from Peter Van in a few minutes. First, Michael Bars here with more on what's going on in New York and around the world. Michael, thank you very much, Nathan. New York City has dismantled

more than two hundred encampments for homeless people. Mayor Eric Adams says the task force over the past two weeks is trying to clean up public spaces and connect people living on the streets with housing and social services. This city is now engaged in a multi agency mission with compassion and caring taken out time. Not rushing through this, but being compassionate to people who experience send terrible circumstances

that they're living through. Mayor Adams says anyone removed from the encampments was offered avoucher to pick up their items at another location. Donald Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner, is expected to speak today, but the committee investigating the January sixth attack on the Capitol bird flew is spreading in the US. According to the Department of Agriculture, the

deadly strain was discovered in five more states. The states involved include Massachusetts, North Dakota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wyoming. Since mid January, it's been found in twenty three states. The Motion Picture Academy has initiated disciplinary action against Will Smith for slapping Chris Rock on stage at the Oscars. Smith could be expelled. Meanwhile, Rock says he is still processing what happened last Sunday. The comedian performed before a

sold out crowd last night in Boston. The Family movie star Bruce Willis announced that he will be stepping away from his acting career after he was diagnosed with phasia. The condition is impacting is speech and cognitive abilities. Dr Jagan Poli is a cognitive neurologist at the Cleveland Clinic Center for Brain Hilth. Diagnosis of PA is pretty broad in the sense that it basically says some a person has changes in their language function because it changes going

on the brain. Dr Polli told ABC ephasia can be caused by an injury or degenerative disease. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven under journalist and analysts in more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan, Michael, thank you five on Wall Street. Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stanshower. Nathan,

what a difference a year makes year ago? The next minute, fourth in the East this season, couldn't crack the top ten to get into the play in after home loss to Charlotte that ended their season nin four game winning speak Nix could be mathematically out as early as tonight. There coach Tom Thibodeaux last night channeled Jilgibera, just keep

concentrating on what we're doing. You know, get better, and then you're not eliminated to your eliminated, and then when you are, you know what you want to get dump Rangers are getting ready for the Stanley Cup. Last they won their fourth and road type game in Detroit. It was tied at one to three, and then after Chris Cryder power play goal with less than four minutes to go, Crider's forty six goals season, he gave US tide at four. The Rangers won five four on an Andrew cop goal minute.

It happened over time, the only way the US men's national soccer team was not going to qualify for the World Cup was if they had lost in coastal Rico by six goals. They lost but only to nothing, so US heading the Qatar in November. The US failed to qualify for the World Cup four years ago. Amazing to think that in the historically long career of Tom Brady, he's only played for two coaches. He's now getting the third surprise move out of Tampa Bay. Sixty nine year

old Bruce Arian stepping down. He'll stay with the Buffs but work in the front office. He'll be replaced by defensive or Todd Bowles, the former head coach of the Jets. So ten NFL teams will have a new coach next season. To the surprise of No. One, Seaton Hall names he and Holloway. It's new coach. Former star point guard former Seaton Hall assisted down the road at St. Peter Hollowegen has took the Peats to the n c A O.

Kate John Station went Bloomberg Sports Nathan Okay. John thanks thirty seven on Wall Street time for the Tri State Business Report. Here's Bloomberg's head cory. Blocks of empty offices in the financial district helped push the supply of available space in Manhattan to another record high. The office availability rate in New York hit in the first quarter, the

highest and data going back to two thousand. According to a report this week by Seville's Research, State lawmakers are weighing whether the fast track and moved to allow three new casinos in the New York City area. It's part of this year's budget negotiations. The Times reports seven gambling companies are spending about three hundred bucks a month on a lobbying blitz to push the state the fast track

the timetable for New York's final three casino licenses. Bird Global says it's received approval to double the size of a shared East scooter fleet in New York City. It says daily average ridership of East scooters in New York has increased by about seventy percent in March compared to February. That your Bloomberg Try State Business Report. I'm Ed Corey. Thanks that it's five thirty eight on Wall Street. Bloomberg Radio is on the air from San Francisco to New York,

London to Hong Kong. Let's check in with our global news team for some of the top stories heard on our three hundred affiliate radio stations around the world. I'm Steve Podascan on ten ten Wins in New York. We're talking about the growing number of companies jumping onto the subscription bandwagon. Um Corney's Anaho on ktr H in Houston. American business has just had its most profitable year since nineteen On Gina Servetti and for Whammle of an eight

in Rochester, New York. I'm reporting that paychecks chairs rang up gains after delivering a forecast that impressed analysts. I'm Caroline Headcolled bloom Bag dav Digital Radio in London. We're reporting on the UK economy growing one point three percent in the FOD quarter. Britain is now in the middle of the G seven countries for economic performance. I made Cory on w w J and Detroit. I'm reporting hundreds of workers at the Kellogg's plant that makes cheese. It's

we're getting a raid mmm. Those are some of the stories our twenty seven hundred Bloomberg journalists and analysts working on this morning around the world. It's five thirty nine on Wall Street. The following is an editorial from Bloomberg Opinion. This editorial was written by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. Headlines about Russia's use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine have fueled fears that the US is falling behind its rivals in

developing such weapons. But before pouring tens of billions of dollars into a new arms race, the Pentagon needs to carefully assess how hypersonics would help meet its strategic goals. It could be cheaper and more effective to simply up grade existing missiles. What's more, US leaders should not lose sight of how destabilizing hypersonic weapons could become. While hypersonic arms control agreements are hard to imagine right now, they

may become necessary in the future. Pentagon planners are, of course right to carefully monitor the threat posed by hypersonics. The key is to avoid a costly overreaction. For sight and sensible investment will serve the US better than an unfettered new arms race would. The seditorial was written by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. For more Bloomberg opinion, please go to Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion or O P I N go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg opinion.

You can hear Bloomberg opinion editorials every weekday. At this time, terminal customers can read more at op I n Go. Futures starting to turn up just a bit. Stay with us, you're listening to Bloomberg Tame Bloomber eleven three oh weather cloudy, breezy, some afternoon showers likely. We'll get up to near seventy degrees, upper fifties, partly sunny and breezy Tomorrow mixes sun and clouds, low fifties for Saturday. Right now forty seven in Central

Park Markets. Headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, at Bloomberg Business Atland, at Bloomberg Quick Tape. This is a Bloomberg business lash and I'm camera and Moscow energy stocks dropping with oil prices as investors, we were ports at the Biden administration is considering a massive release of crude from US reserves to

fight inflation. Stocks in Europe are set for the first quarterly decline since shares ambiguous energy companies are declining in pre market trading, while U S Dock index futures are mostly advancing. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg right now, isn't p futures are up about seven points DAL futures that will change now ASDACK future is up sixty seven. The decks in

Germany is little changed as well. Ten your treasury up five thirty seconds, you'll two point three three percent in the yield on a two year two point to eight percent. Nine X Screwed oil is down five point three percent on five dollars sixty eight cents and a hundred two dollars eighteen cents of barrel comics. Gold is down half

percent or ten dollars fifty cents. In ninety eight fifty announced the euro one point one one o nine against the dollar, British found one point three one one four and the YenS a one to two point oh four. And Bitcoin this morning lower at forty seven thousand, two hundred dollars, down about two tenths of five percent. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael Karen, thank

you very much. The White House says Russian President Vladimir Putin has been misinformed by advisors about his military's performance in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Britain's Defense Ministry says Russia continues to pound northern Ukraine. The chairman of the House committee investigating the January sixth attack on the U s Appitol said the panel is considering subpoena ng former President Donald Trump's personal phone records. In the NBA, the next Celtics and

Warriors lost. The Wizards won. College basketball coach Sheen Holloway is leaving records setting St. Peter's for Seaton Hall. In the NHL, the Rangers beat the Red Wings and O five four. NFL head coach Bruce Arians has decided to retire and is moving into the Buccaneers for an office. He's being replaced by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, the former

head coach with the Jets. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick Take, powered by more than twenty journalists analysts in more than a hundred twenty countries and Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg NA. Thanks Michael on Wall Street line from the Bloomberg intractor Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and as Karen mentioned, we are getting ready to close the books on the first quarterly declined for stocks in two years. So what's

the rest of this year having store? With war inflation and a tighter fed in the foreground. Let's get insights now from Jeff Mortimer, director of investment strategy at b n y Melon Wealth Management. Jeffrey, you're looking forward to closing the books on this one. I guess you could say that, right. Markets unfortunately don't move in a straight line. And uh, you know, last year I remind investors, I was, I hosted a dinner last night, and it's nice to

be out on the road again. But you know, we're up on the SMP sometimes. You know, markets don't think in calendar years or quarters. Um. But certainly there has been some major changes. You know, I am impressed with the markets resiliency in spite of sort of all that has gone on. You know, if we do close the books, you know, down rough numbers among friends, you know, five percent or so. Um quite Uh, you know, I give the market credit for its resilience. Certainly, diversification hasn't helped.

That's been one of the pain points of the quarter. Or bonds typically move up when stocks have moved down. Historically most of the time, UM, that hasn't happened this quarter. Do you expect that resiliency to continue when we're facing a tighter FED and some talk of maybe fifty basis point moves at the next meeting, even more fifty basis point moves. You've heard talk of that as well in subsequent meetings. Yeah, we have in our base forecast now uh to uh to the next FED meetings will be

fifty basis points of peace. So if we are projecting that, I always remind investors the market is projecting that too. I want to, you know, remind investors the market prices in the most likely outcomes. It's doing that on a regular basis. And so a tighter FED, you know, I think is becoming priced into markets. I think we're gonna have to look out the yield curve and see what happens to to ten spreads. You're gonna have to look

at inversion of curves. You're gonna have to look at sort of what messages of the bond market maybe sending, which might be you know, slower growth going forward, so you might see the stock market kind of rotate into companies that can grow in a slower growth economy. I mean, I think that is a is a potential as the as the year sort of plays out. Also in a

midterm election year, this tends to be the weakest. The year of a four year presidential cycle anyway, intends to be back end loaded the uncertainty of the election, you know, as also in overhang to markets, although I think they're beginning to price in how that may end as well. So I think you know you have to bunckle up that. Our our advice to clients to stay at your target allocation.

We are not defensive on behalf of our clients. We are if you're sixty forty or fifty fifty from an allocation standpoint, we want you at that target, and we want you using weakness. If if you're underneath that target, you should be using weakness to make sure that you treat yourself up to that target. I think as you get into late two and into twenty three, it's possible

that you're in a lower inflationary environment. Naturally both sort of what of feed because of what the FET has done, and perhaps supply chains get better, perhaps O Macron or COVID nine King gets sort of put continues to get put behind us, and you might see yourself in a world in which you have low inflation, decent growth, FED which has most of its work behind it, and decent

valuations and stocks. We still think earnings sort of hold tight this year around twenty on the SMP, and again multiples may contract a bit, But as long as that those earnings sort of sit underneath markets, I think we should still be in a pretty good place, you know, as we look out six twelve or eighteen months. All that said, in our last thirty seconds here, Jeff, what's your target for the SMP at the end of the year. So our target is is right about where we are today.

I mean that the rally of the past you know, three or four weeks has been impressive. Our target is between forty three and undred for the SMPI year end, and then we'll probably take it up, you know, another ten percent into next year if sort of what we see um as we've talked about earlier, sort of plays out, and we are looking for the SMP to open the final day of this first quarter at oh two. Jeff,

thanks for this really appreciated dear insights this morning. Jeff Mortimer, director of Investment Strategy at b n Y melon Wealth Management, Karen Nathan. It is five three on Wall Street. It's time for the Bloomberg Law Report, and we get to the legal stories we're watching this morning. From Bloomberg's Jeff Villinger. A federal judge in Texas ordered track Cell Technologies to reimburse Sprint and Verizon for attorneys fees after track Cell

pursued meritist patent suits against the wireless companies. Employers in Washington State will have to include a salary or pay range in their help Wanted ads under a new state law aimed at increasing pay transparency to prevent discrimination. A Planned Parenthood affiliate is challenging Idaho's new anti abortion law, which prohibits abortions after cardiac activity is detected. The suit

says the law violates the state constitution. Bloomberg Law everything you need, all on one legal research platform, including guidance analysis and Bloomberg Market Intelligence. Find out more at Bloomberg Law dot com. All right, Jack, thank you now. Another legal story we're watching brings us at the planned kidnapping

of Michigan Governor Gretchen whitmer In. After thirteen days of trial, prosecutors rested their case yesterday against the four men charged in the matter, but more attention was focused outside the courtroom, where the FBI rated a home in suburban Detroit in response to threats made against the judge and defense attorneys in the case. Data show federal judges where the target of more than forty five hundred threats and inappropriate communications

last year. For more in the matter, Bloomberry student Grosso speaks to Matthew Schneider, former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan and now a partner at Huntinggman. Online threats were made to the judge and two of the defense attorneys. The FBI conducted a raid in suburban Detroit, but no one was a rested. How unusual are these kinds of threats in the middle of a trial, Well, unfortunately, it's not all that unusual. In the middle of any

type of criminal trial that's high profile. You'll have threats to the parties involved. And here's the judge and the defense attorneys. And the key I think is whether or not the jury finds out about this. And it's not really relevant to the trial, to the case at hand, so most likely the jury will never know that in the middle of the trial, there were threats made. But you know, in our day and age, more and more is happening that that defendants and prosecutors and judges are

indeed being threatened. It's kind of a sad commentary on our society. Oftentimes you hear about prosecutors being threatened rather than defense attorneys. Do prosecutors have protection a certain amount? When I was a prosecutor, I carried a gun and I was a deputy U. S. Marshal at the same time, I was deputized because of threats, And that happens because so many people just take man is into their own hands. But both prosecutors and defense attorneys are always targets, and

sometimes for different reasons. The prosecution might be targeted because the defendants or whoever else does look like what they're doing. But then the defense attorneys themselves can be targets because people might not like the way they're approaching the case or they think they're not doing a good enough job. So either way, there can be threats. And the judge in this case has been careful about security. He's keeping the jurors name secrets. So do you think that's because

of the nature of the case. Yes, and you often see that in very high profile maskia cases or mob cases or cases with a lot of violence to keep the jurors out of it. So that that protects the jurors and it makes them feel better and more comfortable

in actually doing the deliberation. And as former U S attorney Matthew Schneider speaking of the Bloomberg Student Grosso, catch more that interview plus analysis of the latest legal news by listening to the Bloomberg Law Show attend m Eastern Time or subscribing to the Bloomberg Law Podcast, and attorneys can find exception only go research and business development tools at Bloomberg Law dot com. And again, futures this morning,

S and P futures are higher, up seven points. And we're watching crude oil this morning as it falls down five point nine percent at a hundred one dollar forty seven cents a barrel, and Bloomberg Daybreak continues. This is Bloomberg

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