Bloomberg Daybreak: January 31, 2023

COVID emergency measures. More Memphis police officers have been disciplined in the deadly beating Tyree Nichols, plus concealed Carree gun restrictions have been blocked In New Jersey, I'm Michael barn More Ahead, I'm John stattwer In sports Lebron James didn't play in the nets in Brooklyn. Beat the Lakers, who

visit the Knicks tonight. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven, Freo New York, Bloomberg Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, Sirius x M one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com. UM and via the Bloomberg Business add good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karin Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. The Federal Reserve kicks off its first policy meeting of today

and that has investors trading cautiously. Yesterday was the worst for the NASDAC one x in five weeks, while the SMP five hundred fell the most nearly two weeks. Dennis Gartman, chairman of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee, says the Fed may be more aggressive than investors think right now. That consensus is the Fed is going to raise the overnight said funds raised by twenty five basis points. I have a sneaky suspicion they'll probably go by fifty, but

time shall tell. But we have a you had a strong rally since October last year. We found some support for the SMP, We found some support for the NASDAC, but the rally head has probably exhausted itself. Dennis Gartman, the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, says he is backing away from a marginal long position and stocks overall, and he's been bearish on the market since January of last year. Nathan, there are signs of hope. For the first time in a year, the International Monetary Fund is

raising its global economic growth outlook. We get the details live but the Bloomberg Steve rapp Aboard, Good morning, Steve, Good morning, Karen and Nathan. The i m F predicts gross domestic product will expand two point nine percent this year before rebounding to three point one percent in twenty four. Chief economist Pierre Olivier Gurasha tells Bloomberg TV the numbers

for global growth remain well below pre pandemic levels. The worry is more with what we call core inflation that excludes energy and food prices are typically more volatile, and this core inflation measures have shown more persistent, and they have not picked yet in many countries, and they're still far away from settlement targets. So the job is not done. Gassia says, there are still some challenges to get on our way to sustainable recovery. Live in New York. I'm

Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Thank you, Steve. Turning to corporate earnings now getting the first results from European banks, and shares of ubs are down three and a half percent of the Swiss Bank reported profit above estimates. Revenues at the investment bank fell by twenty four percent, and compensation costs rose. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers says, well, things are looking up. Clients remain conscious. We see positive news coming from China. We see positive news coming on on on,

also inflation. We see some light life back in the elaborage capital markets, which is normally a leading indicator. However, all early, all early movements, so I don't think there was a trend there yet. So for the moment, I do think that our clients are hopeful, but in a wait and see pattern. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers tells us the bank plans to buy back more than five billion dollars of shares this year. Stay tuned for more of

that interview coming up shortly on Bloomberg Daybreak. Well back here in the US, Nathan, we get earning from thirty companies in the S and P five hund today and then includes oil behemoth ex On mobile, we get a preview from Bloomberg's Tom Busby after a record profit made in last Sumber's third quarter, when prices at the gas pump at all time highs the nation's biggest oil company, is expected to see earnings fall by as much as

twenty six percent. That's on lower oil and natural gas prices. Still, full year profits expected to top fifty seven and a half billion, blowing away the previous record set back in two thousand eight. For the just finished quarter, look for adjusted earnings per share of three dollars thirty cents on net income of thirteen point five billion dollars. I'm Tom

busby Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks Tom, let's turn to the pandemic now and policy out of d C. The White House will end a pair of COVID nineteen emergency declarations in May. Amy Morris explains what it means from our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. The COVID nineteen National Emergency and Public Health Emergency will be extended to May eleventh and then lifted. Millions of Americans have received free COVID tests, treatments, and vaccines,

and not all that will be free anymore. It will also mean the end of Title forty two, which allows border agents to expel migrants at ports of entry without the chance to ask for asylum, and the continuous enrollment

provision of medicaid will expire. The CDC says five people in the US die each day from COVID nineteen in Washington, I maybe Morris Bloomberg Daybreak right, Amy, thank you my US China relations also in focus this morning, the Biden administration is stepping up its crackdown on the Chinese industrial sector. Bloomberg News has learned it's considering whether to cut off Hahwei Technologies from all of its American suppliers, that includes

chip makers like Intel and Qualcom. Whahwei is long suspected of ties to the Beijian government and the Chinese military. Meantimecare and economic data out of China today point to more growth. China's manufacturing and services expanded in January for the first time in four months. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor

Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong. The COVID reopening had a big effect, so did the boost in travel and spending during the Lunar New Year holiday that powered the Non Manufacturing index to fifty four point four, well up on December and higher than the estimate of fifty two. The official p m I rose to fifty point one from forty seven in December, slightly beating estimates of an

even fifty. Not too shabby overall in that many businesses closed for the holiday and good for the global economy, but still a rather uneven path going forward, you know, Kong Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg daybreak, right, Brian, thank you, And it's the end of an era in the aviation industry. Boeing will deliver its final seven forty seven today. A cargo version of the jumbo Jack will be turned over to Atlas Air Futures lower this morning, your latest local

headlines straight ahead, This is Bloomberg, Thank you, Caring. It's thirty eight degrees in Central Park, might say an early shower, especially north of the city. Otherwise partly sunny today, Temperatures in the low forties. You can see a few flurries tonight as we get down to the upper twenties. Time.

How to take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world with Bloomberg's Michael Bark Morning, Michael good More, Nathan two more Memphis police officers have been put on leave, and the Tyree Nichols beating death. It marks the sixth and seventh officers off the job. Also, two E M T s and a driver have now been fired. Congresswoman Gwen Moore, a Democrat from Wiskonsin and member of the Black Congressional Caucus,

discusses police reform efforts in Congress. Moore was asked whether any movement on reform can happen in a Republican controlled outs. There are be an opportunity to do that because you know, when you start talking about a lot of crimes, a lot of this is occurring in sort so called red state UH and in places not governed by Democrats who are in charge, he would say, but this would be

something we'd be able to bring to their attention. Congresswoman Moore spoke with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, which can be heard at five PM. A federal judge in New Jersey block to state law restricting the carrying of concealed firearms in parks, restaurants, bars, and their public places from going into effect. The judge issued a temporary restraining order against the law in a suit brought by gun

rights advocates who are challenging its constitutionality. New Jersey has banned guns from public places after last year's Supreme Court ruling. The US is reaffirming ties with a key Asian ally. The top Pentagon official is in South Korea for talks to discuss growing threats from Pyongyang. In Soul, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described improved efforts to protect the Korean peninsula.

As things continue to evolve, our alliance continues to strengthen, and and UH we look for ways to strengthen that extended the turns. Secretary Austin says we have more than twenty eight thousand uniformed personnel in South Korea. The worst suicide bombing in over four years tour through a mosque in a high security compound in northwestern Pakistan's Peshawar City,

killing at least eighty people and leaving dozens wounded. Former President Donald Trump is suing journalist Bob Woodward for releasing recordings of interviews that he gave to the journalist in twenty nine and Trump claims he never agreed to those tapes being shared with the public. Global News twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Nathan.

Thanks Michael, time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri stayed Out. Good morning, John Stash, Good morning, Nathan. Lebron James is only visit to New York. Obviously a hot ticket chanced to see the guy who's on the verge of the coming of the NBA's all time leading score. But he played forty four minutes in an overtime lost Saturday in Boston and now has a sore foot. So

no Lebron in Brooklyn, and then that's took advantage. They beat the Lakers four, Kyrie Irving twenty six points, Patty Mills and Camp Thomas both off the bench for twenty one. It's not known if Lebron is gonna play tonight the Lakers visit the Knicks. Four NFL teams still looking for a head coach. Meanwhile, coordinator switched Kellen Moore, coach the

Cowboys offense the last four years. The day after his departure in Dallas, he joined the staff of the l A Chargers that a FC championship game in Kansas City will be remembered for the penalty in the final seconds on the Bengals, Joseph Aside late hit out of bounds of Patrick Mahomes that allowed the Chiefs to get close

enough to kick a game winning field one. And I had the support of my teammates, and I just gotta I gotta like Samson, I gotta learn from experience, and um, I gotta know that to get close to that quarterback whennews close to that silent differs anything that could possibly closed the penalty in the situation like that, I gotta do better to do one. Cincinnati teammate Jermaine Pratt was caught on video criticized you know say he did later apologize.

Hockey Hall of Famer Bobby Hall has passed away at eighty four on the ice. One of the all time greats, twelfth time All Star in Chicago, two time m v P. Hull was also accused multiple times of domestic violence and of making racist comments. John stash Our Bloomberg Sports Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius XAMP, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Let's hear more now from our interview with the CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammers. The Swiss bank reported earnings this morning that mostly fell flat. UBS underperformed its US counterparts, equities revenue slumped, and the bank failed to match gains from its peers in fixed income trading. It's the first glimpse and how European investment banks performed during the most recent quarter. Ralph Hammers says

last year was marked by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Let's get more on the UBS CEOs thoughts and the path ahead. In a conversation with Bloomberg's Manus Cranny Blahamas, CEO of ubscot to see you this morning, said a numbers, buy back, dividend, all glowing headlines, but if you look at the net income, it's driven by interesting five percent bump from interest income.

Is this the peak of interest income? Can it squeeze higher? Well? So, indeed, we had a very good set of numbers in the fourth quarter, and not only on the income side, but specifically also in the an aligning flow side. Twenty three billion of that new fee generating assets eleven billion of net new money nine billion of net new deposits, basically showing the trust of our customers to basically place the money with us and for us to help them manage it.

On the back of that, clearly with lower market values on the fee income that was a bit lower, but the interest income really came through. It is very much the dollar effect and the space Frank effect now as well. On the dollar effect, we feel most like and most likely peaked. However, there's more to come on euro and certainly also on the swift rank. Just two weeks ago it was the feeling that maybe we're near the top of these central bank in terms of the hiking cycle.

Specifically the Fed. Paul Krugman joined this, yes, and he said, be careful, stop getting over your skis and overconfident on inflation. Are you overconfident and picked on inflation? Um, we may have picked on inflation, but it doesn't mean that these center banks will not further increase some rates. Just to be sure, I do think that they are very clear in terms of what they want to achieve. They really want to get the structural inflation down and that could

come along with a real deceleration of economic growth. I think the recipe is that we rather have a short term pain with a long term gain then not being tough enough in order to get that inflation back to that level. And that is what I think central banks have in their minds. In the fourth quarter, you had some short term pain. The piece of down seventeen per cent transactions we downe in nineteen percent? Is that the worst is that? Is that the deer of the side

lining of wealth engine clients. Well, if you look at at the different components on the wealth management side. So first what is important is that you see that the trust is there and that clients come to you that busically shows that we have the right professional services, we have the right products, we have the right advice, we can take them through a period of challenges and and clarity.

That period of unclarity is still there. Right. So we see positive news coming from China, We see positive news coming on on on also inflation. We see some light life back in the leverage capital markets, which is normally a leading indicator. However, all early all early movements, so I don't think there was a trend there yet. So for the moment, I do think that our clients are

hopeful but in a wait and see pattern. But there has been a move to risk on as busy debate one monthment it's going to move to risk on assets. You use the word sideline for well management clients in the fourth quarter. Are they nibbling? Are they active in acquiring risk on client wisconses. That's not what we see. We truly see that they are waiting for more clarity to come, and I think that's wise. We really want

to make sure that there is more visibility. I do think that the coming weeks will bring with that more visibility. We see these center banks coming to the market. We see the New Year's, the Chinese New Year's behind us, and see whether the positivism coming from China will continue. We see corporate earnest coming through in the next couple of weeks as well. So I think the couple of the next couple of weeks from different sites will give us much more data points to get a feel for

should we be risk on or not. And that's the CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammer's speaking with Bloomberg's Mannis Cranny this morning. Earnings from UVS are underwhelming investors. Revenue from the bank's Equities division felt in the latest quarter, business from foreign exchange ray send credit did grow, but at a rate around half what US banks saw in the period, And right now we're watching shares of ubs fall there

down three point six percent. In Zurich, This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three oh in New York, Bloomberg in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six one

in Boston, and Bloomberg nine six in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Serius XM Channel one nine, the I Heart Radio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen mall Scale. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak