Bloomberg Daybreak: January 17, 2023

since the sixties. I'll speaker McCarthy admits he always had questions about Congressman Santos's resume, and plus, Ukrainian civilians are dead after Russia bombs apartments. Michael lare More ahead, Don stansdown sports and overtime loss, but makes the Rangers and Devils won, the Islanders lost, NFL plays the Cowboys beat

the Buck. That's All's training ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven three, on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Sirius Exam one nine team, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business app Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm

Cameron Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Members of the global elite are back in Davos, Switzerland, in their regular January slot after a three year hiatus due to the pandemic. They are there for the World Economic Forum. So is Bloomberg Surveillance anchor Lisa abrambo wits. She is covering the event for Bloomberg Radio and Television. It's amazing to be on the ground talking with people ahead of one of the most uncertain years that I can remember

talking to people about. I mean in terms of the parameters of outcomes with respect to recession, not recession, inflation declining or even picking back up. I've never seen such dispersions. So to hear from the business leaders and the central bankers and the heads of state from around the world will be incredibly instructive. Bloomberg Surveillance anchor Lisa abramowits in Davos forest this morning. You can catch more from Lisa live at seven am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio.

Stick with us throughout the day and the week as we bring you conversations and events around the World Economic Forum. Well, another major story we're following this morning, Nathan is big bank earnings. They continue today with both Goldman Sax and Morgan Stanley reporting, and we get a preview from Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Alison Williams. We're going to be looking

at trading. How are these banks holding up in terms of market share after we had a little bit mixed results last week's versus expectations, we do expect strength and fixed dicom trading equities perhaps flatish and a sharp slide in banking fees. How are these banks doing versus their competitors? And then for Goldman Sachs, perhaps a little bit more strategic. What can we learn about their strategy. Morgan Stanley will get an update. We think it'll be tough for them

to achieve their targets in a difficult market. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Ellison Williams says both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs planned to report results around seven thirty am. Wall Street Time. Turning to geopolitics now, Karen, it looks like trade between the world's two largest economies is on track to break records. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg Steve Rappaport,

Good morning, Steve, Good morning Nathan and Karen. Despite the tough rhetoric, trade between the US and China is strong. US government data indicates imports and exports last year will add up to an all time high or close to it. Beijing also appears optimistic, with figures pointing to record trade of around seven hundred sixty billion dollars in twenty two.

The numbers are welcome news for investors amid heated talk of national security in Washington and concerns about the two economic superpowers decoupling, though the data isn't adjusted for inflation, meaning higher dollar amounts do not necessarily translate to more goods. Shipped Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Steve, thank you. Trade with Beijing is sent to pick up China's economy

is coming off a rather soft year. We're learning the economy grew at the second slowest pace since the nineties seventies. And Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong. China is facing a challenging recovery. GDP rose three percent, higher than the estimate of two point seven percent. In December, Industrial output rose one point three percent from

a year ago, higher than forecast. Retail sales contracting one point eight percent versus a predicted fall of nine percent. Consumer confidences near record lows, and COVID infections continue to run. But the economy is reopening big time, and that puts this data very much in the rear view mirror in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Brian, thanks to one other day to point out of China this morning. For the first time in six decades, the population is shrinking.

It's the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for the world's second largest economy. The government said at the end of last year, China had one point four one billion people. That's eight hundred fifty thousand fewer than the year before. The number of births in China was the lowest since at least ninety Meantime, in Europe, Nathan inflation remains front and center. UK wages are rising at a

nearly unprecedented pace. Sanfradge annual earnings excluding bonuses were six point four percent higher in the three months through November begin More from Bloomberry's Lizzie Burden in London. What we've learned this morning is that wage growth was the highest on record outside the pandemic period in the three months to November, even though the inactivity rate on the number of vacancies fell and the unemployment rate held study. So what this suggests is that the jobs markets too tight

for comfort for the Bank of England. Bloomberry's Lizzie Burden says, the Bank of England is under increasing pressure to deliver a tenth consecutive interest rate increase next month. Back here in the US, here in the next chapter in the drama surrounding Elon Musk starts playing out today in San Francisco Federal Court. Ed Baxter has the story from our

Bloomberg nine sixty newsroom in San Francisco. The issue was a number of tweets in eighteen saying that he had lined up the financing to pay for a seventy two billion dollar buy out of Tesla. He then followed up making its ount as if the transaction would be imminent. It fueled a stock rally, which abruptly ended a week later and culminated in a forty million dollar settlement with the sec The trial will make him explain his actions and intentions under oath. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter

Bloomberg Daybreak, thank you. In another corporate note this morning, Bloomberg News has learned that Emerson Electric is planning to reveal a takeover offer for National Instruments. The offer would value the maker of measurements systems at around seven billion dollars, and sources say Emerson is set to go public with its bit of about fifty three dollars per share as soon as today. And this is Bloomberg thank you, caring its thirty five degrees in Central Park. It's gonna be

cloudy today. Might see a few showers this afternoon on our way in near forty five degrees, and he showers

end this evening as he head down near forty. Now, let's take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan how Speaker Kevin McCarry the told reporters he had his own doubts on the qualifications of newly elected Republican representative George Santos, who has been accused of fabricating key details of his

work history, schooling, and personal background during his campaign. I never know about his resume or not, but I always had a few questions about it. The speaker, while heading to a GOP steering committee, also says he talked to the Long Island congressman about reportedly being pretending to be part of his chief of staff for McCarthy. McCarthy says he did not know about the staff's claims at the time.

A special council is expected to begin its investigation this week and to classify documents found at President Biden's Delaware home and at a Washington office he used. The documents date back to Biden's time as Vice president during the Obama presidency. Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelensky says Russia's recent attack on an apartment building in the central city of Dnipro is a war crime. The death toll from the missile

strike is at least forty. Russia denies intentionally targeting civilians.

In Albuquerque, New Mexico, a former Republican candidate who lost his election for a state seat in November has been arrested police A thirty nine year old Solomon Penya is accused of conspiring to shoot at four Democratic lawmakers homes Albuquerque Police Deputy Commander Kyle Hartstock after the election of November, Solomon Penya reached out and contracted someone for a amount of cash money to commit at least two of these shootings.

Commander hat Socks says that they have evidence that Penya himself shot at a house. An event at the National Action Network in Harlem honored Martin Luther King Junior Day. New York Governor Kathy Hokel was at the event. How do you live the lessons, the teachings, the inspiration of Dr King every single day. New York Mayor Eric Adams and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York also spoke. Meanwhile, in Fort Pierce, Florida, shooting on MLK Day left at

least eight people wounded. Global News twenty four hours a day on here and on Bloomberg Quittank, powered by more than journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, brought to you by try stayed out here Good morning, John Stenshown, Good morning the fire pretty amazing. They had been thirty years since the Dallas Cowboys had won a playoff game on the road.

They played last night at Tampa Bay. They're gonna run a play fourth and four back to throw it out to the left all alone, caught at the two and I'll walk in touchdown for Cede Love. How did you not cover the second team All Pro? How Boys Radio? That's the way the night went for the Bucks. Dallas won thirty one to fourteen. That touchdown fast by Dak Press got his fourth of the game. He also ran for a score. The only negative for the Cowboys was

their here Bretton Maher. He made dubious NFL history by missing four extra points. With Tampa Bay season over, now begainst the questions about Tom Brady's future. Cowboys that move on. They'll play Sunday night in San Francisco Giants and Eagles Saturday night in Philly. Three of the four NFC teams

left are from the NFC East. M l k DA Mattee at the Garden went over time thanks to a thunderous game time dunked by r. J. Barrett with less of the second ago but Toronto one an ote Jalen Brunson just named Eastern Conference Player of the Week, but in this one Brunson missed eighteen shots, including what would have been a game winning three at the end. Rangers won three one. At Columbus Devils won four three and a shootout. At San Jose bad loss to the Islanders.

They led Washington three nothing midway through the second period, the Capitals came back and one four three and overtime. Year ago, Novak Djokovic went to Australia, was not allowed to play. Still unvaccinated, but he's getting ready to play his first round match. There was an epic match. Andy Murray upset Matteo Barrett tiny seven six in the fifth. John Stash Howard blue Burg Sports Okay, John, thank you.

Bloomberg Sports was brought to you by Audie. Don't let someone else drive off in the Outie model you've always wanted. Visit your local try state Audie dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today, or visit Outie Offers dot com for more information. We'll get the trading week started next with Dennis Gartman, former publisher of the Gartment Letter. First we look at futures and they're pointing to a

lower open. To start this holiday short and week, SMP futures are down fourteen points, Dow futures down ninety three, NASDAC futures are lower by fifty eight points ten. Your treasuries down fourteen thirty seconds, the yield at three point five nimex crudes down a third of one percent at Barrel live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on sirius xamp, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is

Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager, as we get you set for a holiday shortened trading week with stocks on the back foot this morning signs that central banks could turn more hawkish and attention on bank earnings as well. Let's bring in Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, to get his outlook for the weeks

and months to come. Dennis, Good morning. Of course, we got the first couple of weeks of started with games for stocks. Now we have a bit of a pullback in the futures this morning. Is this just a breather or is this a sign of worse things to come? For the first time in almost a year, I actually turned from being overtly bearish. I turned barrish January fifth of last year, and beginning about a week and a half ago, I actually turned neutral to the market neutral

to slightly bullish. Let's see what happens. But the fact that the market did not go down on the employment numbers that came up two weeks ago, to me was rather impressive. And I tend to follow technical circumstances UH early on and and I saw that the nasdak on on that day of the employment report had an outside reversal day, a new low and then a close higher on the day, which I've always sound to be very impressive and something to be to pay attention to. We

we tended to to continue to trade quietly higher. H. As I said, I've turned from being overtly bearished to being neutral to even modestly bullish. Let's see what We'll see what happens. But the fact that we closed higher on on on Friday, which is archly typical, UH, that that tends to happen before holidays, and the day after holiday we tended to trade a tad lower. The market is very quietly lower this morning, and if I had to do anything today, I'd be a buyer rather than

a seller. But not not manifestly so, not hugely so, just quietly. So what would it take to get you to be hugely a buyer in this market? Dennis uh More, More activity in the market, better volume coming in on the upside, the lesser volume coming in on the downside, which is not something that we've seen for a while. I'd like to see them the market trade better on bad news and and and not go down on bad news.

I'd like to see the market trade well on on good news, which we have not seen happened too often

in the past several months. So a number of technical circumstances, a number of fundamental circumstances, and then probably some acknowledging, acknowledgement from the Federal Reserve Bank that they're not going to be as as manifestly overtly tight as I thought that they would be, perhaps not taking the overnight said funds right beyond five h to think that the feder will be kind of will will turn to being overtly easier. That's that's months, if not a year, into the future.

But let's just see if the market can can trade better on good volume trade and not go down on on high volume. That will be impressive to me. Another prominent bear in this market, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, just came out with a note this morning saying that earnings could bring a draw down in stocks that most investors are unprepared for. Is there further earnings downside in

this market? Do you think? I think? I think the average investor has now been from has now begun to believe that in earnings will be tear double uh, perhaps not terrible, but certainly less than optimistic, less than optimal. And that's I think a general consensus at this point. I don't think that. I I think that earnings will probably not surprise us on the downside, and may even

surprise us quietly on the upside. Time shall tell. But the I think the market has digested, has has fully discounted overtly bad earnings going forward for the rest of the year. What does China's reopening and do for your investment outlook? How does that affect how things could go for the balance of the year. There's no question a stronger opening in China would be manifestly bullish for for equities across around the world, no question about that. We'll

see if that actually does happen. Thus far, the news out of China is that the the opening has been faster than anticipated, better than anticipated. The problem that China has over the long term, however, is demographics are so awful for China. It's a country whose population is already beginning to decline that in the long run that's deleterious to a bullish uh an optimistic perspective as far as

the global investment is concerned. So right now, you have in the short term, for the next five, six six months, a half a year, a year or so beneficial circumstances developing in China. But over the course of the next five years, ten years, China, I think it's going to be a demonstrably less important, far less serious investment opportunity.

Demographics or something that do not turn around in the short term, they turn around over a long twenty year period of time, and China's demographics are deleterious for the long term. Only about thirty seconds left, Dennis. But if you're turning a neutral to bullish on stocks, does that mean you're turning neutral to bearish on gold. No. I think that the gold market continues to move from the lower left to the upper right. Then I think that the goal has has done well even when the news

has been manifestly bearished. For commodities, and take a look at what's happened to wheat prices. They've gone down by half, corn prices have fallen by a third. A live stock prices are down, Shipping prices are down, Coude oil prices of move sideways, natural gas prices that move downy had gold continues to move from the lower left to the upper right. So I've continue to be bullish of the gold market, have been for a year and a half,

and continue to be that way. This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three oh in New York, Bloomberg in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six one

in Boston, and Bloomberg nine six in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Serius XM Channel one nine, the I Heart Radio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak