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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here are these stories we're following today.
John, we begin with a look this morning at today's shortened trading session. The SMP is on course for its strongest months since February, part of an advance of twenty six percent in twenty twenty four, but uncertainty remains. Wednesday's economic data caused investors to recalibrate their rate cut bets, and looming tariffs or threatened tariffs, at least from the
incoming Trump administration, is weighing on specific sectors. As you mentioned, treasury yields fell, the dollar is headed for its biggest weekly loss in three months. New York University professor Emeritith Nuriel Rabini Warren's tariffs could have for a broader effect on markets.
Some of the economic policies of Trump may lead to high economic growth, to being pro business, keeping tax or it's low, I mean, but unfortunately many of the other policies are going to have an implication of hiring, inflation and lower economic growth. The first thing he has already announced is going to be tired against Mexico, Kinada, and China. And that's only the beginning.
And why you Professor Meritis Nuriel Robedi expects traditional haven trades like the popular sixty to forty portfolio will underperform in an inflationary environment.
Well.
The uncertainty of Trump's economic policies, Nathan is causing some movement in currencies. The paes who gained following a call between President Electrump and Mexico's president this week. Trump posted on social media the call is, saying it was productive and that she agreed to stop migration through Mexico. She responded saying that Mexico is not necessarily closing its borders.
Bloomberg spoke with DHL Group CEO to Bias Meyer about how businesses are managing it, sting he hasn't seen clear signals that anyone's front running the tariffs, hot to.
Say, but there's volume in the last weeks. We see that in ocean freight, We see that in air freight. The year has been quite volatile. We had very strong exports out of China for many weeks on the ocean freight side, especially, so strong growth there, but it has been volatile. So it's hard to call out whether there's really a strong element of that.
Dhl' CEO Tobias Meyer says he's seen diversification of supply chains in countries like Mexico and elsewhere.
In currency moves, John the yen has breached one hundred and fifty against the dollar following inflation data out of Japan. Tokyo consumer prices came in hotter than expected, leading to increased bets on further policy normalization. It's raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in December, with the swaps market factoring in a sixty one percent chance of a rate hike this month and checking the end right now, it is stronger against the dollar one fifty point one five.
Looking more broadly at markets, Nathan wall Street's macro traders they're heading for their worst year since the pandemic. Let's get more on this from Bloomberg's Tiba out of Bio.
Investor confidence in making big macro calls this year has dwindled as data surprises have whiplashed bets on central bank interest rate cuts, a too close to call us election, and the shock unwind of a once popular yen funded carry trade also rattled markets. As a result, some two hundred and fifty firms, including Goldman, Sachs and JP morgan A forecast to make seventeen percent less this year from trading G ten rates and nine percent less for currencies.
That's according to analytics company Coalition Greenwich. The bright Spot currency trading is expected to pick up in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six in London tiwa at abayo Bloomberg Radio all right.
Tiwa, thank you.
Bitcoin is headed back toward the one hundred thousand level as President Elect Trump embraces the broader crypto industry, ballstering the upward trend as a group of about a dozen US bitcoin ETFs from issuers including black Rock and Fidelity. They've attracted six point two billion dollars so far in that's according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The previous peak
earlier this year was six billion dollars. In checking bitcoin right now, it's up one point four percent at close to ninety six thousand, five hundred.
And turning back to the US now and a look at to big tech, the Federal Trade Commission announced it's open to an anti trust investigation of Microsoft, drilling into everything from the company's cloud computing and software licensing businesses to cyber security offerings and artificial intelligence products. Bloomberg Anti trust reporter Josh Cisco says this is the first step and what's expected to be a pretty long process.
It's kind they've been working up to this for about a year, doing sort of informal information requests and interviews, and now this is the first time they've compelled Microsoft to turn over what will end up being a tremendous amount of information.
Bloomberg's Josh Cisco says the emptc's investigation could slow in a second Trump administration was just promoting more deregulation.
And elsewhere in big tech. John Australia has passed a law banning children under sixteen from social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram and TikTok. The tech companies will be responsible for enforcing the ban and will face fines if they don't comply. Polling suggests Australian citizens back the move, but some argue it will not achieve the aim of protecting children from harmful content. Here's Australia's Green Party Senator Sarah Hanson.
Young doesn't actually make social media safer for young people. And that's the devastating thing about this, because we know that there are families who are struggling with this. We know there are young people who are struggling with their body image, their connection with their community, their peers, young people who are finding themselves addicted to these dangerous algorithms. But this bill doesn't do.
Any of that.
Sarah Hanson Young spoke there in the Australian Senate. Meta x and other social media platforms have also expressed strong opposition to this new law.
And let's go to geopolitics now. After the US media had a cease fire deal between Israel and Lebanon earlier this week, there is hope for reaching a deal to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Binya Benetna, who told Israel's Channel fourteen his government's doing many things, as he put it, to advance the freeing of the hostages. Met Ye, who says the killing of Hamas's leader, yeah, yeswinwar is opening an opportunity to reach an agreement.
And there are new developments as well, John in the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning his forces could strike decision making centers in Ukraine's capital Kiev with new ballistic missiles as retaliation for attacks on Russia with Western missiles. Russia launched an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and says it may fire it again in combat.
And finally, a look at Saudi backed Live Golf, which is said to be weighing a possible merger with Europe's DP World Tour. If that's successful, it would cement Live Golf's position in the golfing calendar and give the DP World Tour previously known as the DP European Tour, significant financial haft. The talks come as expectations of a deal between the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour
they edge closer. And that brings us to five o eight on Wall Street Time Now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. Hem For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Denise Pella Greeney.
Denise, good morning, Good morning to you, John Well.
Protesters clashed with police in the capital of Georgia in eastern Europe. That's after the ruling party announced it was delaying talks with the European Union on the country's potential membership in the plock for four years. Police used teargas, pepper spray, physical force early this morning as a group of people rallied near the Parliament building. Their forty three
people detained, their dozens hurt. Apparently In that story, Notre Dame Cathedral in France unveiling its new interior five years after that devastating fire. Today it's a watershed in the rebirth from its devastating fire in twenty nineteen. The occasion is French President Emanuel Macron's final visit to the construction site to see the restored interiors for himself before all the proceedings today. A messy rollback of pandemic era regulations
in New York City. Many of those outdoor dining sheds we've been using, they were still standing as of last night and early this morning. John Monica Jimenez is the night shift manager at Old John's luncheonet on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.
But for our business, no plans to actually take this down, No, yea yeah, And.
She says she's not removing them today. The deadline though, is today Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Denise Pelaguini, and this is Bloomberg.
All right, Thanks Denise, and that brings us to find ten of Wall Street time down for the Bloomberg Sports Update being brought to you by Tri State Audi. And for that we bring in Bloomberg's band Schwartzman.
Hello Dan, Good morning John.
The Lions got the NFL Thanksgiving Tripleheader off and running by winning their tenth game in a row to improved to eleven and one on the season with a twenty three to twenty win over the Bears, who.
Have now dropped six games in a row. Chicago did have a chance.
At least tie the game with time running out, but inexplicably let precious seconds run off the clock despite still having a time out.
Bears head coach Matt ebra Flusto.
Says he thought the team handled the clock properly at the end.
Yeah, I like what we did there.
Again, once it's under seven, you know you're gonna you're gonna call you know, time out there or actually under twelve, and then really you don't have an option, you know, because it's third to fourth, you got to throw it into the end zone then, So to me, it's uh, I think we handled it the right way.
Matt's curtsyvespn dot Com Giants are now losers the seventh straight after the twenty seven to twenty loss to the Cowboys in Dallas. Drew Locke got the start for the Giants as Timy Devitos ruled out with an injury. Elsewhere, Packers dominated the Dolphins thirty to seventeen to Lambo Fields improved to nine and three on the season as Short
and Love threw for two touchdowns. Both the NBA and the NHL took the day off for Thanksgiving, but at full schedules today, with the next starting things off by visiting the Charlotte Hornets at noon. Elshere, the Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Orlando Magic. The Boston Celtics are in Chicago facing the Bulls, where the Lakers are hosting the
Oklahoma City thunder Rangers. They're at the Flyers to start the busy day off in the NHL, with the Islanders on the road to the Capitols, while the Bruins are home for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Other big matchups include Winnipeg visiting Vegas, Carolina, home for the Florida Panthers, when the Dallas Stars are hosting Colorado.
In tennis, five time Grand.
Slam winner, second seeded egsh Fiatec accepted a one month suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.
The former world's.
Number one failed the test back in August, but formerly admitted the violation this week while accepting her penalty. That's your Bloomberg Sports update. I'm Dan Schwartzman, Nathan and John.
Coast to coast.
I'm Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a holiday shortened day of trading on this Black Friday, investors might want to be getting as much of a jump on the holiday deals as everybody else, but we do still have a slew of economic data to tie jest before we get into the final trading month of twenty twenty four, and as we continue to assess what has been a remarkable bull run for stocks this year. Joining US now. Bloomberg News equities reporter Joe Easton, Joe, good morning.
It really has been tough to derail the bull this year, has it not?
It has indeed, Nathan, and we are potentially looking to see some small gains continuing that theme in the US futures today. As you mentioned earlier, is it shortened trading there, but really the US is out shining. You're once again, I mean you're at European stocks lower on the day, but for now we are actually seeing a little bit
of a sentiment change. An interesting note out from Bank of America today saying that they are upgrading European stocks while they continue to like the US equity market, they reckon the conditions in terms of credit conditions here in Europe are actually getting a bit better, so kind of changing their view in terms of potentially shifting some more
capital towards at this region. But we really can't keep up with the gains that we've seen over in the US, double digit gains over there, of course, whereas in the Europe we are just seeing small gains on a year to day basis.
Yeah, certainly a lot of the games that we've seen this year have been driven by the AI trade. But then all this excitement, or at least initially around the election of president like Donald Trump, where does the trajectory seem to lay here?
Yeah, So I think the most recent take is on Trump's appointments to his cabinet, of course, and potentially the latest reading is that they might not be as kind of hawkish in terms of some of their policies in terms of tariffs in that kind of issue there. So I think that's what the market's going to be holding on too. But obviously with that there's an implication for the dollar and how that impacts the markets going forward.
But in terms of Europe, we do need to see a bit of an easing in some of the retor rhetoric around tariffs. We did, of course see that report earlier this week that we could be getting some harsh measures from the US and that hit our market. I think the AI trade, I think it's maybe played a lot of its course out at the moment, so I'm not too upbeat on that element. I think a lot of it is going to come down to the White House, as you mentioned there.
Of course, we had that data cornucopia on Wednesday. What's the takeaway there, particularly around the personal consumption of expenditures index, that might be suggesting that that last mile around disinflation indeed can be the toughest.
Yeah, no, I think I would agree with that, And actually you don't want to keep flicking back to Europe, but given I am here, we have actually just literally around ten to fifteen minutes ago, got in the Euro Area inflation and it is kind of showing a similar thing. We're actually kind of struggling to come down from those levels. So inflation back above two percent in Europe potentially not enough to derail the ECB from cutting their interest rate.
That seems to be the take here. So we have actually seen some bond deals coming down and also the euro actually weakening very slightly. But I think it's a similar thing. As you say, it's very hard to get past that last bit of inflation. All these things tend to come on lagging effects. We all know that this will be hurting our bottom lines, our wallets for much longer in terms of the higher rates on mortgages and
that kind of thing. So I think there's a little bit left to play on that trade at the moment, and when it.
Comes to the possibility of hawkish tariff talk from President elect Trump. Does that lead to kind of a budding of heads between what we could see on the policy front and what we can get from the Federal Reserve? Got about a minute lap.
Yeah, No, I think that it's going to be the two forces going pretty much the opposite direction. I mean, if the FED wants to ease rates and then there is possible higher inflation coming from these tariffs, and tariffs are expected to be inflation or of course therefore lifting the dollar, then it's very difficult for then the Fed to come in and start really easing their policy further if there's going to be upside to both the dollar and inflation more broadly, So therefore it's kind of going
against it. We'll have to see what Trump has to say more about the actual Fed himself. Obviously, when he was in power last time, he wasn't afraid to kind of throw about a bit of criticism on monetary policy. So we'll see what happens there. But as you say, it's kind of two really powerful forces pushing in the opposite direction. So it's going to be an interesting start to the year next year when we get there.
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