Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Karen, we begin with the first debate of twenty twenty four for President Biden and former President Trump. The CNN presidential debate was a tough night for the president. He fumbled with lines, struggled with a cough, and tripped over key numbers like this moment on his economic record.
Economy collapsed, there were no jobs, Unemployment ray rose to fifteen percent.
It was terrible.
And so what we had to do is try to put things back together again. And that's exactly what we began to do. We created fifteen thousand new jobs.
The president meant to say fifteen million jobs. Former President Trump was quick to pounce on the economy.
We had given them back a country where the stock market actually was higher than pre COVID, and nobody thought that was even possible. The only jobs he created editor for illegal immigrants and.
Bounce back jobs.
It bounce back from the COVID.
But Trump may have had his own missteps. The former president was asked whether he would accept the results of this election and denounce political violence.
If it's a fair and legal and good election, absolutely I would have much rather accepted these But the fraud and everything else was ridiculous.
But President Biden's halting performance is getting a lot of attention this morning. Sources tell Bloomberg News the president was fighting a cold last night.
Well Nathan reaction is pouring into the debate. A CNN flash poll showed as sixty seven percent of a watchers thought Trump won. Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis thinks it was a bad showing by the president.
The performance by Joe Biden has to creat questions in the Democratic Party's minds is whether or not they have someone who's up to the election. They've got five months ago, and this was not a man who I would say you'd ever want to put on a debate stage again.
Bloomberg Politics contributor Chris and Hahn said the Biden campaign will have to immediately strategize.
They're going to have to come up with how they're going to talk about it immediately, and I think that the campaign's ready to do that. And I think if you're going to look at the president is right on the issues. He was up against a liar. The performance wasn't what it needed to be. The campaign is going to have to be in full mode, you know, like out there talking to people about like what makes this president different, why these issues are so important to the American people.
Both Kristin Hahn, a partner at Rock Solutions, and Rick Davis of stone Court Capital are Bloomberg political contributors, and Karen we.
Did see some immediate market reaction following the debate. We get the latest on that from Bloomberg's John Tucker.
John and Nathi dollar Ange hire As traders concluded that former President Trump was the victor in the debate. Bloomberg's gauge of the US currency climbing as much as two tenths of a percent before they move fell back. Peter Oppenheimer, the chief global equity strategist of Goldman Sachsi's the market narrative shifting.
The focus is very much now on politics, and I think we're starting to see that in slightly high volatility.
Trump, who once proclaimed himself tariff man, has proposed universal baseline terence on most foreign products, including higher levees on certain countries that devalue their currency. On another front, shares of Trump media, significant source of the former president's wealth. In pre market trading are up seven and a half percent. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Right, John, thank you well. The real possible market moving event comes later this morning. It involves a key inflation report that the Fed closely follows. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
It's the number everyone is waiting for but likely already knows. PCE inflation is the measure that Fed uses for its two percent target. It uses inputs from the consumer and producer price indexes. After both a released, economists can plug those numbers into their PCE calculations and pretty much nail where PCE will come out. The consensus is you'll see more good news on inflation with headline PCE flat and
core up just a little. That will push down both the headline and core year over year figures and add momentum to the view the Central Bank will be able to lower interest rates later this year. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Mike, thanks and company news. Shares of nikeer swooshing lower this morning, down more than fourteen percent. The company reported quarterly sales that fell short of expectations. More from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
It adds urgency to the world's largest sportswear company's efforts to strengthen its ties with its retail partners and speed up its product development. Revenue fell one point seven percent to twelve point six billion dollars for the fiscal fourth quarter, missing the average of analyst estimates. Greater China revenue for the quarter was one point eight six billion dollars, beating the average analyst estimate, while earnings per share also surpassed expectations.
The results show that the weakness that Nike has reported in recent quarters is persisting in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Charlie, thank you. Weby now turned to the latest in the Middle East. Record numbers of Hezbela projectiles have hit Israel this month. Meanwhile, Israel's military is carrying out deeper attacks in Lebanon. This is all raising concerns that Middle East may be heading toward a major regional war. Bloomberg Israel Bureau chief Ethan Brauner has more from Tel Aviv.
In theory, all sides are opposed that as Israel says it doesn't want a war if it can find a diplomatic solution. His blissays, We're not interested in having a war, but we're ready for one. But the level of combative rhetoric and of sort of escalation in the name of de escalation is really very alarming, and I think that there is a genuine risk which would of course do terrible things to both countries as well as to oil prices.
And then there's of course a massive risk of Iran coming and end of the US.
Bloomberg Israel buer Ro chief Evan Bronner says both senior US and French and diplomats have visited Jerusalem and Beirut as part of an intense push to stay of off escalation in the region and as time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. For that were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning.
Good morning. Karen, the former Uvaldi School District police chief in Texas, has been indicted over the failed response to the rob Elementary school shooting that left nineteen students and two teachers dead in May of twenty twenty two. Pete Aredondo was booked on ten felony accounts of child endangerment and abandonment. Arenando was briefly booked into the county jail before being released on a ten thousand dollars bond. A second officer, Adrian Gonzalez, was also indicted on similar charges.
The families of those killed gathered outside the county jail, calling for more indictments against law enforcement. Brett Cross lost his ten year old son.
There were children in there and they did nothing, and that is neglect, and that is negligence and they need to be charged for that as well.
'voldy Officials are expected to unseal the indictments later this morning. The NYPD is looking for an escaped prisoner. A man hunt is underway for thirty five year old James Massetti. Authorities say he allegedly escaped from a Manhattan hospital Wednesday night. Bassetti was brought to New York City Health and Hospital's Bellevue on June fifth for a medical issue. Police say he was being prepared to be transported back to Rikers
Island when he escaped from authorities. He is described as being five feet six inches tall weighs about one hundred and eighty pounds and wears glasses. Anyone with information is asked to call police. The Biden administration is weighing in on the Supreme Court Idaho abortion ruling on access to emergency medical care. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre speaking to reporters of Board Air Force one.
No woman should be denyed care, or wait until she's near death, or forced to flee her home state just to receive the healthcare she needs. Yet, this is exactly what is happening in states across the country since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v.
Waite.
More decisions are expected from the Supreme Court today. Iranians have started voting in a presidential election to replace late President Ibrahim Rayisi. Today's voting follows the May helicopter crash that killed Rayisi, the Foreign Minister, and several other officials. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg.
Carry all right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John stash Hour.
John, good morning, Good morning, Carrying the Yankees. We're cruising through the first half of the season. They started off ten and two. They hadn't eleven and two stretch in May. They won twelve to fourteen in June, but since the fifteenth of the month they are just two and nine. And in Toronto they fell way behind right away one.
Two swinging a drive deep left field. That one's way back and that ball is gone. A second deck shot for George Springer and the Blue Jays are up five nothing before and out Spin recorded.
Which that five ninety to call. An inning later, Springer with another three run shot, both off Carlos Rodan. The Blue Jays led eight to nothing in the second inning went on to win nine to two. Rodann, who struggled last season, had won seven starts in a row. Now he's lost his last three, allowing twenty earn runs in those three games. The Orioles beat Texas eleven to two.
Baltimore now tied for first with the Yanks, Mets, and Astros. Tonight' City Field, the Mets were eleven games under five hundred, Houston was once twelve under, and now the Mets are thirty nine and thirt nine, and the Astros are forty and forty round two of the NBA draft that drama game with pick number fifty five overall, and sure enough, the Lakers took Ronnie James, so he and his father Lebron can make NBA history first father and son teammates.
The Nixon round two took Marquette point guard Tyler Kolak. He was once Biggiest Player of the Year. Colorado's Nathan McKinnon won the Heart Trophy is NHL MVP. The NFL Delta defeat in an LA courtroom ordered to pay four point seven billion dollars in a class action lawsuit brought by two and a half million plaintiffs who argued the NFL over a twenty eight year period inflated the price for the Sunday ticket package that allowed fans to watch all the games of the NFL says it will appeal.
John Stashedward Bloomberg Sports Ken Nathan.
Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. It is the morning after the first debate rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. This first encounter came a lot earlier in.
The political cycle than debates like this have come in the past. The President may have been hoping to give a kickstart to his struggling re election campaign, but a faltering performance last night maybe raising new questions for Democrats about where this race goes from here. Joining us now for some morning after analysis are Greg Valier, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, and Terry Haynes, the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry, good morning, It's good to speak
with you. Your reaction to what we heard last night on the CNN presidential debate stage.
Nathan, good morning. A few things first, I think the reaction certainly is going to be kind of a market's negative and a geopolitical negative. We say three things though. First is Biden certainly had a bad night. I think it's negative for him, but I think it's irretrievable and you can forget him being replaced by Democrats. I mean, I think that's not going to happen based on what we know today at all. Secondly, I think we need to think about Trump a little bit more too. Trump
didn't break out here. Trump's the major problems are that he's dealing with a split Republican Party, He's dealing with independents who do not prefer him. He didn't make any moves last night to change that out. If Biden had the performance that he had had against any Republican nominee other than Trump, you'd see a lot of people flocking towards the Republican nominee. Because it's Trump. That's not going
to happen. Finally, I think in short attention span theater that we have here today, you know, we have the kerfuffle of the moment, but that's going to quickly move to the Supreme Court decision on Trump community Trump's sentencing on July eleventh, the conventions, the vice presidential pick. This is all going to get swirled around a lot more, and Biden will have plenty of opportunities to write the ship.
Want to bring you into this conversation, Greg Valu here, because you have a note out this morning with the headline that's quite a bit different from the analysis we just heard from Terry. Democrats in full panic mode. Tell me more.
Oh yeah, I mean, I think we can't look at just a few trees. We've got to look at the forest, and the forest is irrefutable. He was horrible. It was a disaster. I think in the next few days we're going to have to have an adult conversation about dementia and Alzheimer's. I mean, this is an absolute nightmare for the Democrats, and I would state, maybe fearlessly, that he will not be on the ticket within a week or two.
Obviously a very different analysis, Terry, Does it go too far to talk about this idea of demain Alzheimer's. I mean, there have been questions about President Biden's age and acuity before. With the stumbles that we saw last night, is that a conversation that needs to be had.
Sure, you know, the Democrats have Democrats and been parts of the media, not this not this network, but Democrats and parts of the media have been spent busily six months to a year denying that not only the conversation needed to happen, but that that conversation needed to happen about Biden. And so now they're in full catch up mode, sadly, and you know, absolutely the conversation is going to be had.
I don't say anything that I say lightly I do say that the Democrats are going to fold in around him much more than much more than that. There's a I think a disparity between you know, the inside the Belwagh types and what's going to go on in the broader country over the or over the next week. The country has been much more skeptical of this than than Washington has. So Washington's having a catch up moment too.
I want to get your reaction as well to you know, some of the attack points that President Biden tried to put out last night. He did go after the former president toward the middle of the debate on his legal issues. Let's hear a bit of what the President had to say.
Crime. So you are charged with and think of all the civil pedalies you have. How many billions of dollars do you own civil penalties for a molesting a woman of public, for doing a whole range of things, of having sex from a porn star on the night while your wife was pregnant. I mean, what are you talking about, Well, you have the morals of an alley cat.
Greg That gets to the point that Terry made about if this were any other Republican that the president would be going after he would have had a better night. I mean, what's your reaction to that the former president may have some foible, some issues of his own.
I think Terry's right, and I think that it was not a good night for Trump. He's very vulnerable. It became quite clear that he's vulnerable. However, I think that again the big story is the performance by Biden, which I think for a lot of people was shocking. And I do think over the weekend you're going to have meetings, maybe all in private, but you're going to have meetings among Democrats saying can we keep him as our candidate?
And I think there are a lot of governors, not Gavin Newsom, who's in the middle of a self inflicted budget debacle in California, but I think there are a lot of governors, maybe starting with Gretchen Whittmer in Michigan, who you will hear a lot about over the next few days.
But to Terry's point about whether this could just be a blip, that there will be other factors to get to gain a lot of the public's attention, whether it's the Supreme Court decisions or the conventions. Is this debate performance of blip or can it have more resonance into November.
I think it's the latter. I think that it's highly unlikely that people will look at him the same after last night.
Terry Well, I think some of my least favorite phrases or things like It remains to be seen. But you know, the voters have been way ahead on this.
And.
At the same time, you know, Biden's still neck and neck with Trump. So the question is, you know, whether whether the surprise that's exhibited in the Washington and media centers gets played out in the public. The other thing I would say is, you know, Larry savagaou at an interesting point this week that people who somewhat approve of Biden's performance in office are somewhat disapproved are way way ahead, twenty nine points ahead if you sort of approve of
his job, seventy seven percent if you don't. So there's a you know, when you've got a head on head, it's a lot of reluctant desire to pull the lever in Biden's favor. That's going to get cut back a bit, certainly, But I don't think it dissipates overnight, and I don't know where those voters go Frankly, they almost certainly don't go to Trump, and they're not going to go to a third party like Bob Kennedy.
But just quickly, Terry, what about this idea that there could be other Democrats waiting in the wings after a performance like we saw from President Biden last night? Is that something that should be seriously considered that the president could be replaced on the ticket based on one debate performance.
Well, I'd watch. I think Greg makes a legitimate point. I'd watch, I'd watch the body language of Democrats over the next several days to ten to several days to ten days. Frankly, Remember we're going United States is going into it basically a week long holiday, so they're going to have some time to be out there. But you know, this has always been kind of like a second rate to Shakespearean play. You know, Newsom's been lurking in the wings for a while, Whitber pops up and moves back.
There have been other players, so it's gonna get considered. My only point is I think the Biden people hold very very tightly to the reins and don't let them go, and you know they're failsafe is that they're going to get nominated. Biden nominated a virtual convention, not a real one, So they've got the mechanisms actually to cut things off at the past.
We wouldn't that be something a repeat of twenty twenty all over again, to have something like a virtual convention. But Greg, I mean, how do Democrats sort of circle the wagons around President Biden? What does that look like? Do you think if we do see a scenario where the president, you know, tries to fight past this, well.
They're going to say he had a bad cold, that that was responsible for his weak voice. They're going to say that there is still compelling reasons to oppose Donald Trump. We heard some of them last night. So there's a window. But to me, it's not a really strong window for them to be able to claim any momentum. In fact, I would argue that in the last forty eight hours, even before the debate, there was some slippage in Biden's numbers,
especially in big electoral college states. I think it makes this debate, makes it even tougher in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan states like that. They already weren't looking good and they're going to look a lot worse in the next week.
Or two estates that we certainly watched very closely, and just adding to the snappole that we saw last night from CNN itself that about two and three viewers of last night's debate thought that the former president came out victorious. Thanks to both of you for this morning after analysis, Greg Valier and chief US Policy Strategistic AGF Investments, as
well as Terry Haynes, the founder of Pangaea Policy. And we want to turn now to our correspondent who was in Atlanta covering the debate for US and getting some of the reaction on the ground as well. David Goura is with us this morning from Atlanta, of course, the host of the Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News. David, I mean, you hear the narrative this morning about how tough a night it was for President Biden, that former
President Trump seemed strong. What's some of what you're hearing in the spin room and the post debate.
Yes, that's exactly what I'm hearing and exactly what I saw when I was watching that debate unfold from the spin room in the media area at the debate last night. I mean, there was a kind of remarkable moment when that debate ended, and you know, President Biden was dealt a very low bar that he had to clear. He didn't clear it. He didn't have to have a good night. He had have a decent night. I don't think that.
I don't think that he did. The debate ended, it got very quiet, and then all the reporters migrated down to the floor of the basketball arena and Georgia Tech where we were watching this unfold, and then surrogates began to kind of march out for Donald Trump and really filled the floor. And it took Nathan probably ten or fifteen minutes before any Democratic surrogate showed up, before we saw Gavin Newsom and Raphael Warnick on the floor of that arena to field questions and spend as best they
could that debate performance. So I think that the vacuum that opened up was real Democrats and supportive of Joe Biden trying to figure out what the message is going forward here. But I think that there was near unanimity among those who watched it there in the arena that this was not the night that that Joe Biden needed. In what Joe Biden forecasted, he would have.
Yeah, interesting to hear a Republican sort of coming out in force for the former president when we hear Terry Haynes saying that he still sees a split in the Republican Party. Does that reaction that you saw last night sort of put the light of that or is this a non Trump wing of the Republican Party just even further in the wings now?
You know?
Right before the debate, I talked to Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia. He was walking the floor and we caught up a little bit and I asked him about how he thinks the party is going to coalesce around Donald Trump. And of course, Brian Kemp, we learned this week, did not vote for Donald Trump in the primary this year, and he said he's very confident it's going to happen. And I think that last night's debate performance is going
to do well by the former president. I mean, I think that the again, the vision was so stark as those surrogates came down, and I think that it was very very clear that folks were falling in line and very very eager to rally around him. I think that the way that he performed last night certainly is going to set that back.
So when it comes to the Democrats, what's the discussion that you're anticipating that the Democratic Party is having this morning after the current president's performance.
Picking up on what Greg and Terry said, I think that there will be some talk about this cold and what made it difficult for him to speak in kind of a forceful manner during the course of that debate. I imagine the next step of that is how good an excuse is that going to be? And you know, I've heard some people speculating about him maybe recusing himself
or whatever may happen. I don't know how that happens procedurally, and I think that's kind of a novel and maybe scary conversation for Democrats to have here in the next few days. But I do think that last night's performance made them reckon with the fact that this is not as sure a thing as they thought that it was going to be. And I think that again, it's it's novel territory. It's it's something that they're going to have to sort of feel their way through here in the next few days.
And in our last minute, David does this sort of overshadow some of the policy discussion that we heard a lot of the you know, the usual sort of exaggerations and misstatements that we heard from the former president.
I think absolutely, and I was struggled, I'm sure you were by the way in which he kind of reframed or recharacterized what happened on January sixth, how he reframed or recharacterized what happened with the economy. I think that what he said to Joe Biden was look at the economy. I left you, you know, all of that untrue sort of credit his tax cuts for the strength of the economy. I think that that was able to sort of fade into the background because he seemed to have such command
of the forum. I mean, we spoke yesterday just about might this be a challenging format for the former president because there's no audience. I'd say, of the two Donald Trump, evinced a real skill with feeling the two minutes that he was allotted and looking in command at the time, and that I think was unexpected and indeed surprising to a lot of people watching the debate.
Nathan, this is Bloomberg day Break today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak