Sofia Horta E Costa on China Data Delay (Audio) - podcast episode cover

Sofia Horta E Costa on China Data Delay (Audio)

Oct 18, 20226 min
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Episode description

Sofia Horta E Costa, Bloomberg Chief China Markets Correspondent, discusses China delaying economic data. She spoke with hosts Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Radio.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Yeah, let's have it look good, but to be going on in China as well here and a little and more detail because we got Chinese regulators ramping up efforts to support the stock market, which saw a little reprieve from Chinese President she Jing pink speech. It's a discuss all this with Sofia hope that you costa Bloomberg Chief China Markets correspondent, Sofia looking at all this, there wasn't a lot for market bulls in China to get their teeth into, yes, exactly, not not not nothing really to

be excited about over the speech. But um, there was an expectations that she would announce any kind of market friendly measures. You know, I've been writing about the the very idea or the very hope on Wall Street that we would get any signal of a COVID zero pivots out of this Party Congress, and and I've been saying that that hope was misplaced and very much so. I mean that was kind of you know, this speech really doubled down on the fact that it's a policy that

China will stick too. So any conversations beyond that, beyond what will happen to Chinese markets, Um, really really have to be based on what happens to COVID zero. Uh so nothing really to for for traders to cling to. Nothing nothing specific, nothing new, nothing different, And it was really kind of damp squipt for markets. Yeah, you could

kind of tick through. There were a few positives like pushing science and technology and and but there were plenty of negatives too, So it seems like the main takeaway was a slight negative for markets. But then we get the Chinese regulators talking about companies being freed up to buy back more shares and and easing some curbs on overseas mutual funds in making purchases. Will that will that

suggest a little upward push? And there's always the national team as well, yes, really putting a floor on markets, And there was a little bit of a positive reaction to that as well. It's not just corporate buybacks, which we can be extremely effective. I mean, I'm sitting here in New York and that's been used in US markets as a tool to to support um prices. It's a small, small amount, it looks like it will be a small amount, and also still quite a lot of restrictions around that.

But at least thirteen mutual funds in China announced on Monday that they will buy their own equity products, and that will also shore up confidence in the market. You know, if if mutual funds are buying their own equity products, then retail investors should have the confidence to do so

as well. And also the sense that UM China on the regulatory side will and this kind of feeds back to the whole opening up narrative, will continue to reform financial markets and will continue to allow for overseas investors to play a bigger role. And that is really I think the story for next year where does China stand on that and does it still want overseas capital to come into its more because because we've had such severe outflows this year, and that would be what what that

would be? What would really put a floor on Chinese markets? Well, Sophia, today we were expecting industry production GDP, most importantly retail sales, jobless numbers, fixed, our asset investments, and all of this has been delayed and no no reason given that. The thing is that doesn't exactly investive friendly, is it. I think this is a classic case of officials in China not knowing how to communicate to financial markets, or maybe

not really seeing that as a priority. I mean, I think the what really kind of spooked or confused analysts and investors is the fact that this was done so last minute. I mean, if had China said two weeks ago, um, you know, we were not going to release this key economic data because every single important person is gathered and and and very distracted doing something else in Beijing called, as we know, the party Congress, then that would that

would have made a lot of sense. I mean, I remember commenting two weeks ago, you know, wise China releasing the third quarter data in the middle of the party converse, it makes no sense. But the fact that they decided with no explanation to change or to delay, um, so last minute, I think, really, um, you know the China China needs to learn, I think, how to how to kind of do that part better? Just communicates market, make sure that things like this don't unnecessarily confuse people, because

that's what gets people nervous. There might have been a little bit of a bounce in there of slightly more than say three point three percent for GDP, and and uh that that would be better than the prior quarter, But in any case, much below the target. But let's go back to like your first comment about how we

may see some short term support. It's almost like if you see a dead cat bouncing in the US and on Wall Street, whether you just want to go in there and buy, knowing that further down the road there may be some losses. Do you think we'll see some aggressive buying of Chinese shares here in the shorter term? I think the word um, the word to use their aggressive is the key modifier. I mean, I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised to see some buying. Um. The prices

are are so depressed. I mean the c s I three is this year after already a bad year the previous year. Um. But but the key thing that the overhangs in the market, they're all still there. And there's no clear path forward on the property market on COVID zero and no sign that any of that will change. So until we get clarity on that front, UM, that word aggressive won't won't happen. We could see some buying and and really the important thing for four markets is

finding a floor right now. Yeah, and maybe they just tell people don't sell into it, um, you know, so it may not be that aggressive on the buying. But if you don't have sellers to taking advantage of the better prices, we could see some games. Okay, thanks very much, Sophia. Always fun, always interesting, and always something to learn, Sophia or to cost. Bloomberg, Chief China Markets correspondent. This is Bloomberg

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