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could be closer and we have these ongoing difficulties in China. Um, good morning, Brian. Wow, you you came ready with a good question there. Um. The I look at it this way, the bond market in the stock market are telling us two different things. The bond market is clearly sending a recession signal. So you know, again, let's let me just sort of stipulate. If the markets are telling me two different things, I tend to trust the bond market over

the stock market. That said, I think investors have gotten Um, they've gotten a bit more mellow in terms of what they're looking for. First, we're looking for a FED pivot that wasn't coming from Powell. Then they were hoping for Um, pause that didn't come. Then they were hopings. You know, now they're just sort of okay with okay at the pace of rate hike slows that's good enough for us, and that that kind of boiled us up um earlier, you know, early last week. UM, it's not clear to

me that that is a great way to go through life. UM. I think that's a little I think they've gotten a little ahead of themselves. And so we'll see what happens whether the data, which which side the data is really favors over the coming days and as phycifically at the moment that people living for next month when we see the latest earnings come through. But you know, how important and how seriously are people taking earnings in your view, Steve Um, let me say your cho there, always take

it seriously. But sometimes I think they may not be discounting enough going forward. UM. I think you know, we we saw some great reactions from a wide range of retailers. It's not clear to me whether that was just because they liked the numbers or because they were sort of caught wrong footed by okay numbers. But as we get into next year, I was kind of expecting that, Um, we might see some more revisions from analysts in terms of next year's numbers, and they're not really coming through

with those. So we're reasonably fairly valued, you know, and actually maybe slightly undervalued if the if those earnings that are still being predicted come through, but if you're expecting more of a recessionary scenario, UM, then then I think we're still a little bit we may we still have some downside then potentially, And some investors had taken some positive signs from China over the past couple of weeks, thinking that perhaps if not in actual name, but in practice,

some of the COVID restrictions would be retreating. But we see a very different story now. And then these protests add a lot to it too, because that raises added concerns I suppose about governance. Oh absolutely, this this has become you this has become an issue with US. Investors really jump on the bandwagon anything anything that seems positive

out of China. They get very excited about. We saw a tremendous amount of call buying in UM you know f x I, which is you know, sort of a China related ETF and a lot of the you know, the the usual sort of names like Ali Baba and stuff. Um. And this has to put a little bit of a damper on it in the short term. So last week was a bit money because of the Thanksgiving holiday and the partial trading day on on Friday, So we've got a proper said trading week and culminating, of course with

the non farm payrolls report. How important is that in the context of the verbiage we've had out of the Federal Reserve of late Um. I think the non farm payrolls is sort of taking a back seat right now because I think we can more or less check off the full employment portion of the feds dual mandate. Remember it's you know, full employment and stable prices. We can pretty much say that full employment if not here, it's

awful close. Um And we're and the FED is basically said that they're going to sacrifice employment at the at you know, if it means getting stable prices. So I think these are always important numbers, um And I think people will read into it if it's an outlier, but I think it more or less comes in in line. It doesn't change much of the FED narrative that people are looking for. Yeah, it's a tricky time when you think that actually recession may be part of the game

plan for the FED. Uh So it puts you in a in a funny position and you you seem to express Steve a little bit of frustration in the first part of our interview with you know this run over four thousand for the SMP when it wasn't really much news to justify. So my question to you is is that actually a good sign or a bad sign. A bad sign would be, well, maybe it's this complacency being shown. But a good sign is maybe they see and feel some underlying strength. Yeah, I mean it. This is the

problem is it's very hard to unpack. My my gut kind of tells me it's a little bit of hopium, you know, just sort of everybody being hopeful that that something is going to turn around. You know, do have the seasonality of the end of the year. Um, if you get a little bit of positive momentum into November December, the institutional investors want to stay invested because they want

to ride that momentum higher um. And so I think you can you can get a kind of run where the market just has enough to justify it its actions without necessarily being a real causative UM story, and that's I think that's I think kind of the situation we're in. It's a bit of momentum, it's a bit of good feelings. People feel okay being invested, but but it's you know, longer you know, and then we'll sort of wait until

next year and see what happens. That could be a little bit tricky, Steve, when you look at you know, your your clients, and you look at what's been happening in the crypto space. But what's your take from what they're asking you? How badly damaged has this whole indeed ecosystem, I mean by what happened with the ft exident, the rippling effect from it. How many hours do we have for the short answer is you know. I think that that people if you're a believer in crypto, you kind

of remain a believer in crypto UM. I think people are encouraged by the fact that it hasn't sold off. I do think that that is more of a function of a lot of small investors really just can't sell because they don't have access to their accounts UM depending on which firm they're invested at. UM. I don't think this does anything toward to you know, the institutional adoption of crypto. I can't see a lot of you know, major asset allocators saying, oh, you know, let's get into

crypto now. There's still so many unanswered legal questions about who, you know, how the accounts are going to be um separated out, um, you know, custody and things of that nature. It's a big mess. I think those who those who believe in it remain believers. You know, a lot of the a lot of the so called whales are in at levels where they're you know, even a fifteen thousand down from sixty thousand, there's still up huge if you're in a five or a thousand dollars or something like that.

So it's you have this really bifurcated market right now. Um And I think for the most part, people are just sort of hanging tight, sort of hopeful that and and happy that it hasn't collapsed more. But there's not a great investment thesis to it right now. You know, as I've been saying all along, it's it's a crypto has never existed in an environment where there's been sustained, monitor restrictive monetary policy. UM, and that's what we're seeing now.

And so you know, there's a bit of reckoning going on. UM And I just hope it's not more painful. It's been painful for a lot of people already, UM, and I just hope we can kind of get our way through it. But in terms of you know, customers, I think those who love it love it. Those who don't

UM are certainly not dipping their toe in now. Steve real pleasure having on the program as usual, Steve Solsnick that you strate is an interactive broke is getting his take on the market actions are just getting his take on what's going on with regards to the crypto space as well.