Let's get to our guest, Nancy Dowd private wealth advisor or Prise Financial. So we're getting a lot of cross currents here in the earnings picture. It doesn't seem to be clearing things up. The double digit forecast upgrade for Microsoft's earnings next year, it gives you kind of a warm and fuzzy feeling. But then when you look at what Walmart delivered yesterday, it's it's all pretty confusing. The bears would argue that, look, eventually everything's going to get hit.
You have the Fed writing a trade for freight train, trying to get after inflation, and that's into a slowing economy. Sell now come back later your thoughts. Yes, but you know the we said that corporate earnings are strong, and everyone was very concerned about earning. So there's a bit of validation there. Uh. And yes, there's a lot of confusion and they're very The Walmart reports certainly indicates that. But the reality and everyone's talking about are we in
a recession or are we going into recession? Well, the reality is that the market already pressed all that in. So now tomorrow the big Sad meeting will will they raise interest rates? Three quarters of a point, Will it be half a point, will it be one again? Lots of speculation, But the said has a very big job to do, and it's not just raising interest rates. There has to be a reorganization of the balance sheet, there has to be a spending curb, there has to be
some tightening. There's there's a long checklist of things that have to be done besides just raising interest rates in order to overcome the inflation, and Nancy a lot of it as well about the forward guidance about what they're
going to do after this meeting. How do you read the overall health of the consumer when we had such conflicting views from the likes of Walmart and then some you know, better earnings coming through from the likes of Google, Visa seeing spending jump to Yeah, I mean there's, like I said, I think that all along with all of the chaos and all of the bad news, corporate earnings are are very strong, and corporate balance sheets are very strong.
And the reality is that these big tech companies they're going to figure out how to skin this cat. They're not just gonna play low and and take it. They're going to figure out how to get around it and and they're very resilient. And I always believed in corporate America because they know, you know, every one of these companies always figures out how to survive in times like these. Investors are always trying to figure out how to get
an edge just buying. Let's say, all the cost averaging and buying, you know, is fine, but I mean, where's your edge here? For the listener? Now, what can he or she do to get ahead? We'll trying to time the market is a loosing battle, so it's really not a good idea to even think about that. And there's a lot of noise about oh, have we already hit the bottom? And should we be? Is this a good reentry point? Nancy down is Private Wealth Advisor and Amerprise
Financial joining us on the line on Daybreak Asia. We're talking about opportunities you're seeing and you're not seeing any outside the US at the moment, mainly due to the strength of the currency. So the question is when do we reach peak dollar and when to other markets start to look attractive. Well, I think we still have a little bit of a bumpy ride ahead. Um, Western Europe has not recovered uh quite well yet. In fact, there's the the Ukrainian Russian war is really taking a toll
on Western Europe and there's more problems there. But until the dollar really shows some uh weakness, lesson where where we are now. Uh, it's just too hard to overcome the currency exchange rate. Even if companies begin to recover, they would have to recover significantly before before we can think about profit. It's and and big opportunity. So we are in fact limiting our exposure outside the US at
this time. I think most investors know now that it will be hard to get some commentary from the FED until the job is basically achieved or done. So if you're looking for early signs that inflation is topping and that the FED might be able to ease back, what are some of the early signs that you'd look to. Well, you know, supply and demand is really the basic. Uh. You know, when when demand is higher than the supply, everything will will inflate. And that's just it's always been
the way it is. So once you start seeing the supply become equal to or greater than the demand, that's when inflation will begin to Well. The reason I ask is like we've seen a pretty big move down in commodities. Now, some might think that, you know, that's a pretty good input into prices and that maybe that would be a key, but then we haven't seen that with some of the CPI data. Yes, commodities are going to start to taper off, but I still I think there's still some upside there.
But really the big, big upside and commodities is behind us at this point. So um, if we're not already out, we should be getting out very shortly. But there's so much opportunity out there. With all of the bad news, there's also a lot of good things happening, so you should be thinking about that. We'll tell us about some of the good things in that you're looking at. In particularly, I wanted to see whether or not you see still value in sixty forty because the inflation is very much
continuing to weigh on one retencent. Well, you know, sixty is really just a general cookie cutter kind of uh formula. It's really more important to be more personalized and when you're looking at investing, because even intent in bonds has been pretty scary. It's one thing to expect volatility and losses in stock, but it's really scary when your quote unquote safe investments are down ten um, but even bonds will be a great opportunity very shortly, within the next
five or six months because interest rates. Once there's the long term rate reaches or or hits the three and a half to close to four percent mark, there will be a grand opportunity in long term bonds. Again, are you seeing good values in credit? Um? You know that's a little trickier. Uh, There's there's some avenue there, but we're still thinking short duration and very very high credit. Nancy, we talked about the FED, just I guess more broadly, what are you expecting that we'll hear from j Peal
in terms of forward guidance. Wow, there's so much speculation on that. You know, many are speculating half a point, three quarters of point or even one percent. The reality is it really doesn't matter because the markets already priced it all in UM. And like I said earlier, it's not only the raising of rates that's going to count. There has to be some uh tightening of the money supply before we can see some real difference. All right, Nancy,
thank you for your inside. Nancy Doubt is private wealth advisor at a Mary Price Financial joining us on daybreak. Asia