Well, it's that time of year again. Central Bank is going to be gathering this week at the annual Jackson Whole Retreat. Joining US snuff for a preview of what we might expect. Kathleen Hayes, Bloomberg Global Policy and Economy Editor, Kathleen. This event typically watched very closely, as it's in the past been a venue for making key policy announcements. But considering the she a number of variables at the moment and then the uncertain path ahead, are we expecting any
concrete guidance this week? If you want something concrete like fifty or seventy five basis points for the September twenty one rate UH decision in expecting a hike, No, not from J. Powe. We'll have lots of FED speakers though speaking Bloomberg Television and former FED officials, so we'll get more. We'll get the latest thinking so far it is they're going to high rate in the question how much, but in terms of a bigger question and we might get
out of this. J. Powell speech on Friday, which officially opens the two day UH symposium sponsored by the Foot of US or Bank of Kansas City. This is the forty year. It's been held in Jackson Hole, by the way, a really beautiful and kind of remote setting for people to get together and think about big, big things. Uh. You, I'm glad you allude to the fact that this venue which for years ago, when I started going a long time ago. Um, they didn't necessarily make any kind of
policy signal or statement. It was much more broad than that. And you know around the years of Ben Bernanke that's when you know QUI, the second QUI was signaled. In fact, I was looking back at that's when Maria DROGGI said, whatever it takes is Bazuka was taken out at Jackson Hole. So the potential is there for j Powe to make an important statement about where the feed is, where it's ben,
and what's going to guide it next. Yeah, So we seem to be sort of debating a lot whether or not recession comes next or just to slowing in growth. But either one both are being caused by the fit right or that, or is it that is being caused by inflation. Well, I think inflation has made is gonna definitely on the margins, making it worseper And that's a good point because when things cost more you don't buy as much. However, at this point, consumer spending is still
looking pretty good. The labor market is still strong. But again, what's ironic to me? Forty years forty years since they started doing this imposium in Jackson Hall. Forty years that was two? We look like two, don't we? And what did Paul Volker have to do? He had did come in and raise rates and raise rates and raise rates. He caused one recession, or they did in what was
it nineteen eighty, but they stopped raising rates. That's the that's the you know, the diagnosis there too soon, and so that they had to come back and they got a worse recession. So this is the kind of question the FEDS grappling with. Now this conference is being held in person again for the first time since twenty nineteen. You have attended quite a few of these, Kathleen, in the virtual ones. Is the dynamic different when it is
in person? I think so, um partly because when I started going years ago, and it wasn't so much a policy signaler, and actually I was the first TV reporter, correspondent whatever that was ever invited to attend Jackson All that that was back in the days when I was working at CNBC and they had an opened up to television yet. Um. But uh, in terms of it being different, we used to think this was all about what you
learned on the sidelines. Okay, not what was said in in the panels officially, but you you got to talk to a FED Bank president, you know, somebody close to the policy action and get your hands and clues. This is a very different time now. I also think though, that when everybody's together and people are talking, there is a certain energy and a certain dynamic. I don't know if that will exactly change what J. Powell has to say,
but it may. It may give more color and a sense of how what people are feeling after you, after we finish up and people are talking about what they've heard or what they sensed or and again with so many FED speakers, what the latest is, Kathleen, You know everybody sort of is what the FED is doing. Um, And and it really makes the Fed's job difficult because people are playing the pivot even though they know it's a long ways down the road. They don't think it's
happening right at this moment um. And how complicated? How does that complicate? J? Pal's commentary because he wants to come out he doesn't like that financial conditions have eased this much. Probably not, Uh, it doesn't help them, and uh, I don't. I'll be surprised if Jake pale Is does anything as specific as talk about what the market's doing
and uh about financial conditions easing or tidy. Now, maybe he will do something broader about how that fits into how the FED does thing, how how it has done them, how well you know, do them coming up next? Um. I think that uh, there's two ways of looking at what the markets doing. One is they don't believe the Fed. Fed's not credible, dadda. The other one is that they do believe the fit right, at least for the bond market. Uh, and they that they're going to tighten so much they're
going to cause the recession. Then they can, you know, stop biking rates and turn things around. I think it's very difficult to discern what the market messages because if you ask, you can ask two people and get four
different answers. I wish we had more time because you know, some people might be buying equities because they believe the FED will get the job done exactly because they think they're going to get rid of inflation, and sooner or later the brush is going to clear away and people can buy stocks again and go back into a bull market.
I agree it's like that. So then PALA should not not, you know, reject what financial conditions have been easy to It's very complicated anyway, Kathleen, you helped clear it up for us. Kathleen Hayes, Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg