Jay Varma on Covid Outbreak (Radio)

five the subvariants. Talk to me a little bit about what we know in terms of transmissibility. Are there details on how quickly these variants are capable of spreading. Yeah. What we've been learning about these viruses that every time we think we're in the clear, the virus comes up

with a new way to attack us. Um. These new variants are all they're all what we call subvariants of omicron and they all have just additional mutations compared to you know, the B A two mutation that we would be A two subvariant that we were worried about before. And what they do is they essentially find ways to evade the immunity that we have in our head and

neck area. UM. So they spread very quickly, UM, and they evade that immunity, so that people who have been vaccinated, people have had prior infections, UH, they're still at pretty high risk of getting infected again. So tell me, hey, Jay, I mean, okay, this is mutating this virus, But say,

does the flu virus? So is it very is it similar to that in the sense that you know, we're gonna have to have a covid jab every year, as you know, we do a flu jab as well, and of course that's gonna you gotta keep up to date on your vaccines. And how does this compare with the flu going around the last season for instance. Yeah, it's

an excellent question. So what's really been both surprising and obviously disastrous for the whole world is the fact that the covid virus has found a way to develop new mutations um that are dangerous to us every three or four months. In contrast, the flu virus, it takes maybe three or four years for it to develop a new mutation uh that we consider more dangerous than the last one. So that's why we appear to be in this sort of unending, you know, cycle of every three or four

months going through another surge UM. And really the challenge has been that even though the development of these vaccines was you know, revolutionary in reducing hospitalizations and depths, we're now learning that there we need another generation of them. We need a vaccine that can cover future variants and it can last longer UM. And so the flu virus, you know, gives us that ability to do it every year.

Right now with with COVID, you're you're looking at, you know, getting a vaccine at least every year, if not more often until we get another generation of vaccines is better. And I think what you're describing here as the m r n A technology not only was it very quick in coming to market, but it was able to target those spike proteins in a way that are I think created greater efficacy, at least in the initial stage. But that's basically a US story as opposed to what we're

seeing play out in China. Give me a sense of what China is struggling with right now, as far as you know, yeah, China is in a it's incredibly challenging position where it has chosen as a national policy what it calls dynamic zero, which is effectively trying to keep the virus out, you know, as much as possible UM, and to do very restrictive measures like locking down you know,

mega cities UM in an attempt to control this. Now, the of course, the reason that they're doing this, the stated public health reason is the fact that you know, they can't afford that the risk of of the virus spreading more rapidly to the population, particularly given the very large elderly population UM and limited hot hospital capacity. So what they've done is, you know, continuously try to fight this.

But what as it described before, this virus is so widely that I'm very pessimistic that they're going to be able to do this successfully without continuous lockdowns. And that's I think really the concern right now. And on Way Province UM, you know, several UH areas are locked down, and there's a real fear that that this will return back to Shanghai UM and we know the disastrous consequences

of that a few months ago. The virus is just too infectious these days, So so this is a very blunt instrument to control a threat UM that really needs to be controlled with vaccines and masking and ventilation, but the Chinese Jerman has chosen a different approach. Jay didn't answer this latter part of my question earlier, which Okay, sure this they get more and more infectious, but are they more dangerous because the flu virus seems to vary.

It can be very dangerous when you're not so dangerous the next But it does seem as the as the omicronal COVID nineteen virus mutates, it may become more infectious, but perhaps doesn't hurt you as badly. Yes, So there's there's two things going on at the same time. So one is, you know, what is the virus doing? Is it getting more dangerous? And the second is what are our bodies doing? Our our bodies better equipped to fight

this infection. And there was a lot of you know, hope early on that omicron because it causes a lot of kind of upper respiratory like nose and throat symptoms that maybe it wasn't more dangerous. But what we've learned looking at the data across many different countries, it is

almost certainly equally as dangerous. Hong Kong is a perfect case study in that now the difference is and the reason we're seeing far fewer deaths um in Europe, in the US, and in many other places is because people have built up a level of immunity that protects them against death. Doesn't necessarily prevent them against long COVID or even hospitalization, but immunity from the virus infections and immunity from vaccines is helping to protect her. So that's why

it gives the illusion that it's less dangerous. A pleasure to have the chance to benefit from your insight. Thanks for the conversation. Jay Varma is Kroll's Chief Medical Advisor and also a Kroll Institute Fellow. Joining us here on Daybreak Asia for the latest on what's happening with the coronavirus globally