James Stavridis on China-US (Radio)

thinks fifty years ahead? Can the US. It seems like you have an idea that things are about to change, and they're optimistic, particularly because of the creation of this new House Select Committee on China, headed by Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin. Explain why you think this could market change in long term thinking, Well, China is one of the very few issues upon which there's real bipartisan agreement. I think the other one, by the way, is Ukraine, and

perhaps we can talk about that in a moment. But Uh, this idea that I think both sides want to put a serious effort into creating a long term US strategy for dealing with China is quite signal, and in particular it's led by a very impressive, relatively young, thirty eight year old Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is a Princeton undergraduate a PhD from Georgetown, a combat veteran, a US marine in the Forever Wars in Iraq. Really an impressive individual.

The key is going to be whether that committee can be sufficiently bipartisan. I think it can be to really create a long term look at how we are approached China. What are the elements of an effective long term strategy towards China? That's the key question, and I'll give you five. One is military. What are the military systems from unmanned to space, to special forces to artificial intelligence? Another one

is diplomatic. How do we construct the best diplomatic approach combined allies, partners and friends from Japan to India to Singapore in the region. I'd say number three has got to be economic. How do we balance the trade and tariffs in a way that creates a level playing field between these two countries. I'd say number four is cultural informational. How do we talk about ourselves our diplomacy, How do we counter the authoritarian moves out of China? And then fifth,

and finally, maybe most important is tech technology. How do we construct how we deal with chips, how we ensure that we win the race toward artificial intelligence. I think all of those need to be blended together in this strategy, Admiral, is it inherently more difficult for democracies to to plan out over say, fifty years, in that leadership changes sometimes every four years. It does, and you put your finger on a significant challenge for the United States and for

other democracies. Exactly as you say, democracy changes in the direction can shift pretty dramatically. Um. Whereas in an authoritarian country, someone like President she he's seventy, he'll probably be around at least another ten, fifteen, maybe twenty years. He can keep his hand on the tiller. On the other hand, the vibrancy of a democracy that brings new ideas for that allows us to reinvent ourselves is also an advantage. Bottom line, I'd rather have the hand of cards as

a democracy. Winston Churchill said democracy it's the worst form of government except for all the others. I'll go with that. Yeah. Indeed, Um, if we want to unpack some of those five pillars individually, UM, let's take militarily, for example, what will be needed as part of a long term plan, but as risks attached as well in terms of potentially stunning an arms race there is, but let me let me tell you, China is already embarked on that. They're building ships warships much

faster than we are. The Chinese navy is three fifty significant warships. We have three hundred. China is expanding its nuclear strategic forces um, China is expanding into space. We still have a lead by the way in many of these areas, but that race is already in progress. The reality is we've got to move forward. And I would put three things at the top of my list. Unmanned vehicles to include space, by the way, but also drones as we see in Ukraine. Number two, I think artificial intelligence,

cyber security. And number three, this one may surprise you. Special Forces, elite teams, Seals, Green Beret, but also elite cyber warriors are going to be part of this. We need to keep moving forward on that military pillar. And well, just today Bloomberg reports an extensive outline of of China building up several unoccupied land features in the South China

Sea near the Sproutley Islands. And in our story we cite Western officials and and have satellite photos that show that fishing fleets operating as Chinese maritime militious have been carrying out construction activities. Uh in four features of the Sproutley is not. A listener who knew you were coming on the program texted me hoping that I could ask you if the world has decided that the occupation of

the Sproutleys is okay. No, we have not, and you're going to continue to see Western maritime powers to include the United States, are allies like the British, the French have signed up to this, the Australians, the Japanese. We're going to drive our destroyer right through those contested waters in the Spratley's. And by the way, it's not justice small group of islands. China claims the entire South China

Sea as territorial waters. This is a land area, Brian and Paul, that is half the size of the continental United States. We're never going to let China simply claim that huge land area, and we're going to continue to contest these waters. Um, this is not okay, and you will see the West push China very hard on the South China Sea. Yeah, it's not just the South China

See that's disputed as well. I mean, just today there's a report in the Times about India moving an unprecedented number of troops to the border with China and our natural bra dish. What can the Quad do in situations like this? Yeah, the Quad, for those who aren't in this on a minute to minute basis, is Japan, United States, Australia, in India, and those four nations the Quad are collectively combining their security, their diplomacy. Not a formal alliance, but

working together to create a counterweight to China. Is very important that the United States, Japan, in Australia, the other members of the Quad provide support to India in this dispute which is getting pretty serious in the Himalayas at the very top of the world. Yeah. In your piece that we've been referring to in this chat, you gave a list of books that people should should read to learn more about this. Maybe I would add one. It's called Four, a novel of the Next World War written

by you along with Elliott Ackerman. And the reason I started off the interview by saying, you know, making a big deal of let's start off on an optimistic note, is that it's a pretty dark theme that you have in that book. It is it's a novel set in the year hence the title a novel of the next World War, and of course it's about a war with China. But here's the optimistic note um. The book is intended

not as predictive fiction, but rather as cautionary fiction. The idea of the book is to outline how a war could start, how the US and China could stumble into a war. And by the way, it begins in the South China Sea with a scenario set in a freedom of navigation patrol very near the contested island features we talked about. But here's the point. If we construct a plan, if we deter China, if we work with allies, partners and friends, we can in fact avoid stumbling into a war.

That's why it's so important that we create a coherent plan ultimately to deter China. Bottom line, Look, the relationship with China is difficult. We're going to have to bend it. We want to be careful we don't end up breaking it and ending up in a war with China. I'm told by our bureau chief in Taipei that people aren't that worried about China invading Taiwan. And twenty second, should they be um. I have one word for you. Ukraine people in Kiev ten months ago often said, we know

the Russians really well, they're not actually gonna invade. How did that turn out? Yeah, it's a cautionary tale. Admiral, thank you for joining us. A good shout retired Navy Admiral James Stafrida's former military commander of NATO and a Bloomberg opinion columnist