Okay, let's get over to the next guest. It's where Chan chief China economist of Golden Secs, discussing the economic outlook for China itself. Well, thank you so much for joining us. I think you reported to report last week or published or at least for twenty three's outlook, and it was titled after winter comes Spring. Well, that's of course obvious, but the point is what will that spring look like? Uh, it's gonna look a bit messy because of getting our zero COVID after such a long time
of UM. You know, keeping virus out of the country will mean a lot of people getting infections and getting sick, and uh, we don't know if the hospitals are going to be prepared for that wave of infections. So um, assuming that people will be apprehensive and there could be some hiccups, so it might be a bit of a massiw reopening process. When you look at the property market, which is obviously the other big story on the mainland, are you confident that we're going to see a recovery
as we go into UM. I think the government hasn't made it pretty clear that they are doing everything possible to complete those press the properties the meaning they're cutting off the left tails. Um how whether they you know, we're going to see age as a stabilization or some notable recovery, that is still unclear. But I think the focus right here is that we don't want it to get any worse. So all the people pay their money to buy these properties to be delivered in three years,
We're going to make sure the properties are being delivered. Therefore, people still have confidence in the system and still pay money up fronded to buy these pre sow the properties. But sure, but let's look further ahead. Shot we agree, I mean, you can. It's the property kind of model. Gun. Now we look at one of the fastest aging societies ever in history, and you're just gonna not need those number of properties that have been built. And so how
does this all change the game? Yeah, that's the that's precisely point. That's the magnitude of a decline. Maybe too much for the government's liking, but the direction is by design. This is not a mistake or anything, and there's not They're not trying to engineer a you term, longer term. We simply do not need as many new apartments being built and being sold. Uh, do we need you know, thirty percent younger decline. That might be too much. We
need a gradual adjustment. You still have organization ongoing. UM. But UM, you know, that's why we don't really expect the government to stimulate that the factor. The key is to stabilize it and to prevent any further U spiraling down. UM. So that's that's why they introduce all these measures to cut off the left tail. So in your work, boy, how do you understand the connection between what's going on
in the property market and overall consumer sentiment in China? UM. The property factor, because it's the biggest asset on household balanche, is very important for UH sentiment and confidence among households. But I would say, right now is the COVID situation. Uh. You know, you can argue that even more important because if you don't have COVID situation resolved, UM, people have no confidence in their future income stream and their future
job prospect. Even if you ease property factor, UH, you know, lending and down payment and mortgurate, it's unclear that can transmit into transactions. If I don't know if I have a job or not um now the next year, So I think Uh, for the property factor to have a proper recover recovery path, we need to get a COVID situation resolved. Well, this is it, isn't it? And there still living in China under COVID, whereas the rest of the world has largely come out of that whole terrible
pandemic and what it did entail. Now, the thing is what could China learn from the other economies which bounce back after they reopened. Of course, this is a much I'm going to say, stag much more staggered reopening in China. So you could actually argue it to reopening with Chinese characteristics. And so how will the structure of the economy of altered?
I think ideally, you know, given Chinese the government the conservative and doing everything gradual and running pilot of that kind of a style, that would be what they want to do. But I'm not sure on the crown, uh, you know, allows that to happen. I don't see how you can open one part of the country or open partially. Um, if the crown just so contagious that that's why come
back to your initial question. Uh, it seems that this might be a messier process than the government would like to see because as soon as you UM left to the Zeo Covia policy is going to be massive spread of the virus. Let's talk briefly about US channel relations. We had President Spiden and GI meeting a little while back on the sidelines of the G twenty, but there remains a little bit of tension, particularly where high technology
is concerned. I mean this relationship, are you expecting it to to improve over time in the new year or or is it going to be a case of stasis where we're pretty much each side watching the other very closely and unwilling to make significant movement. Yeah, UM, good question. I think there are different layers that to the U. S. China relationship. Is that improving from the very rock bottom?
After UH Speaker Pelosi is a visit of Taiwan. UH, now at least we have a more talk to the I think the climate dialogue also restarted, UM, and Anthony B. Lincoln is coming to Beijing next year, So there are from that very bottom we are seeing some improvement, and hopefully after China reopens, will have more dialogue and visits and UH conversation that will be helpful. But the bigger
picture there's a whole strategic competition the technology front. What we are seeing that big picture is unlikely to change. Uh and if anything, you know, this is going to be a very dynamic interplay that export controls being imposed and China will have to figure out how it will move forward. So we'll see how this plays out. Suite Sean from Goldman Sax, thanks so much for joining us here on Daybreakcasia