Good morning. I'm Brian Curtis. Here are the stories we're following today. The current Israel Hamas pause is nearing its end as talks continue at Backsha with that story and more from San Francisco ed.
Yeah, well, I've gotten a lot of information out of it, either, Brian. Negotiators from Cutter in the US oppressing for the agreement to extend Israel's demanding all the remaining hostages be released. In US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says continuing the ceasefire may be the way to get that done.
It's continuation, by definition, means that more hostages would be coming home, more assistants would be getting in, So clearly that's something we want and I believe it's also something that Israel wants.
Now more hostages were free today and the hope is they're still for a second release before the deadline. But it is bittersweet for some. Shanny Siegel was released earlier. Her cousin talks about her response.
We were ecstatic, but the joy only laugh a few minutes because many realize she was released without her husband.
Yeah.
Hamas is not released to any men as have yet, So we'll hope for words soon about that seasfire and the US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has spent about forty five minutes on the floor talking about the spike and anti Semitism in the United States.
Any of those marching here in the US do not have any evil intent. But when Jewish people here chance, like from the River to the sea a founding slogan of hamas a terrorist group that is not shy about their goal to eradicate the Jewish people in Israel and around the globe, we are longed.
He says. This goes waving on a legitimate debate about Israeli policy into a very dark place. Ukraine, NATO Ukraine Council in Brussels today renewed call for continued aid for Ukraine from Secretary of State Blank.
And some are questioning whether the United States and other NATO allies should continue to stand with Ukraine. We enter the second winter at Putin's brutality, But the answer here today at NATO is clear and it's some wavering. We must and we will continue to support Ukraine.
The scheduling of the vote for George Santo's expulsion needs to be done by tomorrow under terms of the resolution, but House Speaker Mike Johnson, well, it doesn't sound a whole lot like it.
I think the good will be product. That's all I'm going to say about the Friday.
But the resolution says tomorrow now earlier in the day.
I personally have real reservations about doing this. I'm concerned about a president that may be set for that. So where everybody's working through that, and we'll see how they vote tomorrow.
Yeah, so we'll see where it goes. Santos's schedule a news conference for early morning at the Capitol tomorrow. The Taiwan's president, Tyan Wing, says she believes China is too consumed by domestic economic and political problems to invade Taiwan. This even as Beijing rams up military pressure, and as Google has struck it deal with a Canadian government over contentious law that would force pay for news. It would
avert the news block schedule for next month. And I was searching here a story just up on the Bloomberg terminal. Elon Musk says advertisers that have stopped spending on the platform due to his endorsement of antisemitic posts can f word themselves. He says, what's going to do is kill the company Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it. With Bloomberg News now in San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter.
This is Bloomberg, and we tackle now some of the top business stories of the hour.
Well.
US treasuries rose on trader bets that the FED will cut interest rates in the first half of twenty twenty four. Two FED officials made the case for continuing to hold interest rates steady. Let's run through some of these now. Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester said that policy is well positioned for the FED to be nimble and respond appropriately too incoming economic data, and Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic said he's growing increatingly confident that inflation is firmly on
a downward path. However, Richmond FED chief Thomas Barkin told CNBC he is not yet convinced.
I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates, and I guess the bigger point is there's no precision that anyone can point to at exactly what is the level of rates that exactly handles inflation and exactly the way you want to handle it, And so you're constantly trying to adjust on the fly as you learn more about the economy, as you learn more about the impact of demand on inflation. And that's what we're learning as we go.
Thomas Barkin there on CNBC. FED officials meet next December twelfth and thirteenth.
We're hearing too, health insurance giants, emerger talks, Bloomberg's and Kites reports.
Signa and hu Man are working on a potential cash and stock combination that would create a giant in the health insurance industry that you would become a powerful challenger to United Health and CBS Health. The move would also shrink the number of publicly traded national health insurance from six to five and give the Signa Humanna editing more leverage and negotiating with hospitals or Medicare. The tie up would likely face antitrust hurdles in Washington, and Kate's Bloomberg Radio.
Interesting Paul that both stocks went down. You don't often see that in one of these merger type stories. Signal was down eight percent for the session and Humano was down five and a half percent. Well Shares of General Motors jumped more than nine percent after the automaker announced it would boost its dividend by thirty three percent. GM also said it would repurchase ten billion dollars of shares. The carmaker is returning billions two investors despite a push
into electric vehicles. That push has yet to show significant results. The buyback also comes despite a new labor agreement with the United Auto Workers that adds more than nine billion dollars in expenses. GM CEO Mary Barra says the agreement was the right call.
When you look at the suite of benefits that our represented team members have, it's very very appropriate package and frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the auto industry. So I think we did the right thing to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing team members across the board.
GMCEO Mary Bearra. Separately, the United Autoworkers Union is launching an aggressive campaign to unionize thirteen non union automakers. They include Toyota, Volkswagen, and also Tesla. The union is hoping to capitalize in recent contract victories with the big three automakers.
In Detroit.
Salesforce gave a profit forecast for the current core of the topped analyst estimates. I've got the story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
It shows strong momentum in the software giants cost cutting campaign. The San Francisco based company said earnings excluding some items, will be about two dollars twenty six cents a share in the period ending in January. Analysts, on average projected two dollars seventeen cents. It said revenue will be from nine point one one eight billion dollars to nine point two to three billion dollars. That compares with analyst average estimate of nine point two to two billion dollars in
New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.
Saudi Arabia is getting more involved in diplomatic efforts around the Israel Hamas war. We hear the Kingdom is offering to invest more in Iran, its traditional adversary, if Iran would keep its proxies out of the fight. We get more from Bloomberg's Sam Dagger.
I've been speaking to a number of experts and they told me that for Iran, Hamas is less important than the others, particularly has Bulah, which is the pillar so to speak, of this whole forward defense strategy of Iran in the region. So Iran is very careful not to provoke a wider conflict in which has Bulah would be enmeshed.
It's not clear yet how Iran might respond to the Saudi offer.
Pmis fall November likely to show the manufacturing sector extending its contraction. Bloomberg's von Mann has more from Hong Kong.
The consensus at a Bloomberg survey of economists is for a mile pickup in manufacturing. The economists pegged the index at forty nine point eight, indicating the sector remains in contraction early in leading indicators point to some softening in production. Meantime in a non manufacturing sector, economists adjusts the index. We'll pick up to fifty point nine for fifty point six in October, but Bloomberg Economics expects the index to
decelerate further. That's likely to do with the extended slump in the property sector and cooling tourism related businesses after the October holiday in Hong Kong. I'm von Mann Bloomberg Radio.
Twelve minutes now past the hour. Joining us is Edward Harrison, Bloomberg, team leader for the America's FX and Rates team, and he's with us here live on the show, Edward, thank you for joining us. I want to revisit a sort of non consensus call in the marketplace that the hard part is over on inflation, that actually the last mile of disinflation won't actually be that hard. Goldman Sachs made that point a couple of weeks back. I'm not sure that many buy into it, do you.
You know, I would say that I'm on the other side of that. But there are some people, Bill Ackman
in particular, who are talking about this very much. In particular Bill Ackman, who was very vocal about this in the David Ruminstide interview that he just did here on Bloomberg, he said that the Fed concerned about the real rate of interest, that is, you know, the nominal rate minus inflation, will eventually see very quickly, actually in the beginning of twenty twenty four, that they're too tight because inflation has fallen so much.
We're still well outside the target ban though, so you know how I have for longer. Something we keep thinking about is the market getting a bit ahead of itself in terms of when it's anticipating easing.
I would say it is getting ahead of itself in terms of when it's anticipating easy and in part this is due to the uncertainty involved in where we are, because if you think in the last three cycles, we've had five hundred basis points or more of cuts, and then there's the potential that we have a soft landing, how do you hedge, you know, zero cuts versus five
hundred You come out somewhere in between. But to the degree that you think that there is the possibility of a recession, then it's likely to be coming in a very short period of time, say twenty twenty four, and that's why we're seeing this bidding up of cuts coming forward.
I wonder if there's a little bit of goldilocks in some of the retail activity that we've seen here of late with Black Friday or Monday, in that you have discerning consumers. You have retailers that to make their numbers, the numbers were good, but to make those numbers they did have to offer discounts and it wasn't like rampant, but they were definitely there. And to me, that indicates that companies find that they cannot continue raising prices, that consumers are becoming more discerning.
They really are, and it is amazing what will happen when you give a fifty percent discount. How many people will come and buy your products?
The quest?
I mean, it does.
It does have some implications for inflation coming down, doesn't it.
It definitely does. I think that it shows that at a minimum, on the good side of things, that we've seen the peak, and then the question now becomes the sticky part, the services part. That's where the real tough nut to crack is. The question is is how sticky is inflation on the services side of the ledger and how much of that will satisfy the FED before they
start cutting. I think that the market is a little bit ahead of itself and if we don't have a recession in terms of expecting any cuts in the near term. Even Bostic of the Atlanta FED, who's one of the more dubbish members, isn't talking about this. But nonetheless I think that's where the sticky wicket is.
We have seen pretty impressive decline and yields this week. The you are still a weakening as well. You're an FX and rights guy. How much further that he's going to fold?
Yeah?
I think that on the long end of the curve, it's very difficult to go much further from here. We're at about four to twenty five.
Now.
When you look at the FED funds, the top end of the range is five point fifty, So that's one hundred and twenty five basis points differential there that you're giving up. Certainly, you're locking in for twenty five and you rue the fact that you didn't lock in five percent, and that's a very nice coupon clip. But the reality is is that you are giving up one hundred and twenty five basis points by moving all the way out there.
So the question then becomes how much more can these yields go down given that were firmly anchored at five point five percent on the upper end of the FED phones.
Yeah, quite interesting to note that the short end falling a little faster now than the long end, So that's.
Something to keep in mind.
One other issue that hasn't been talked about too much is China exporting deflation.
Now, Yeah, that is a good question. I would say that a corollary of that question is whether or not China has matters less in the sense that other Asian countries are now picking up the baton from China, and that what we're seeing in terms of China and their exportation deflation is offset by, you know, a pickup in demand in other countries within Asia, in particular Japan, which has done relatively well for the first time in a very long time.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on the stories making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street. Look for us on your podcast feed every day, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station
is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SiriusXM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Brian Curtis. Join us again tomorrow for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.