Uh and joining us as aerial co and senior fellow at Atlantic Council to discuss the latest developments on China, and not just of course about zero COVID, but of course geo politics here as well. I mean, we still protest this time last week, Errol, and it seems the Communist Party paid heed. Indeed they're lifting the most severe restrictions, but those who protested would be identified and probably arrested
and punished. This is a high tech totalitarian society and it is not going to evolve anytime soon as long as converte Seizing Pain is in charge. And now he secured his rule for the foreseeable future. The level of protests so far does not indicate that they're going to be structural reforms politically. The big challenge I think for for see is after he destroyed UM main Chinese companies UM to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, is he going to be a retreat and allow the
economy to build itself back. I am not so sure so far. So has he broken the social contract with the citizens of the mainland. A lot of Chinese observers and analysts say that yes he did, because the social contract was that the quality of life and g d P per cabinet were growing up and up, and it's not happening anymore. Whereas the internal oppression, be it um UH in the virtual Chinese Internet realm or in the street with the pulvid restrictions. Uh, those um restrictions, we're
getting worse. And we saw the outpouring of um UH public morning for the leader who was a more liberal one, Senza Mink who passed away the age of ninety six. Uh. The leader who was appointed in fact after um Tiana man Um protest, who was not a sweetheart but relative decision. Think he was much more liberal. Yeah, okay, sure we've
got that. But let's take a look at what's going on in terms of China in a geopolitical sense here, and they try to back away a little bit from Ukraine or should I say Russia's giving Russia support in that war. They've dialed that back a little bit, But the Taiwan question remains open. And the thing is nationalism can of course be the refuge of a scoundrel. Well it is, and clearly in is meeting with President Biden,
j Ping did not back off the Taiwan question. We saw the qualming tom party UM winning in the local elections in Taiwan, and that's a party that still speaks about unification with China. Uh So, I think the best we can hope for is that there's no military clash over Taiwan anytime soon, and the differences and disagreements are
resolved in a diplomatic way. However, the long term vector of China getting stronger, China building its military, and the US facing very serious challenges in terms of our ability to conduct two military operations, one in Europe, uh god forbid it escalates in Ukraine, and another one in the Pacific. We do not have the military resources, the money, the technology, technology o based to conduct two wars, and we need to be very careful how we UM conduct our foreign
policy and our military posture in Russia. So Ariel at the beginning of the Party Congress President chiefs speech, at least in the view of analyst, was kind of um. It came away, you came or the listener came away with this sense that it was much more inwardly focused. And here we have, according to Reuters, she traveling to Saudi Arabia at the end of the week. I mean, how are we to understand the role that she sees himself playing on the world stage going forward. That's a
fascinating question. I think after he secured the domestic power, or he heals that his power now is formally in his shrine. He opened UH an enormous um campaign of foreign activities he met with when he won foreign leaders in the last three months or so, from Finland to
New Zealand, UM, Australia, UH, the Bali meeting. He is very active, and it's interesting that he's going to Saudi Arabia because UH to secure the Chinese energy supply is a paramount challenge for any Chinese leader, and with the Saudis UH feeling myths and distancing themselves from the United States. There are many problems between the Biden administration and Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Um. The Chinese will step into that vacuum,
as they did with Iran. By the way, there's a huge three hundred billion dollars over thirty year investment package between Beijing and Tehran. UH. Jing and Moscow both support the press of Iranian leadership in what they're doing to their own people. So the competition from the Middle East to Africa to Russia will continue area very quickly here as well. What about the impact of the Chips Act. I mean, how damaging is that for the Chinese economy.
It's very damaging. I talked to a number of experts at a conference in Paris where I was recently, and people are saying that this, these limitations on US experts to China devastating. People warned that they may be a trigger to a quick deterioration in the U. S. China relations, and again we have to be careful not to push it overboard. Harriel, thank you so much for being with us. Ariel Count, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council,