This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you can download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg
dot Com. If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. We will win this and as far as I'm concerned, already, we believe we're on track to win this election. And of course that was President Trump and President Vice President Biden last night. I do want to mention a headline crossing the Bloomberg Joe Biden winning the state of Wisconsin. That is coming from the Associated Press.
As we know, there were still a few races that are yet to be called, but again the Associated Press just calling Wisconsin the state of Wisconsin for Vice President and Joe Biden. Well, it is the day after the election. We still don't have a winner for the White House. Uh, And instead we've got a date that we are hearing NonStop from state officials and governors who are continuing to count the vote. Great to get back to someone who has been one of our go to voices throughout the
election season. Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis, former Republican strategist, former manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, and partner at Stone Court Capital. He is back with us on the phone from Virginia. How late were you up. Oh, well, it's not so much of being late. I think I was up early. I left Bloomberg headquarters in Washington last night at about four thirty in the morning. Uh. It's it's unbelievable. And we just had the AP calling Wisconsin
for Biden. Um. You know, it's interesting. We've gone from listening NonStop to state COVID updates to NonStop state updates on the vote. Is there still a path to victory, Rick, in your view to two seventy votes for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Yes, Uh, certainly both men have an opportunity to win. The pathway for Joe Biden is
much more direct. Is simply put. He's currently at about two d and thirty seven electoral votes with including um UM Minnesota's Wisconsin, as you mentioned, is just broke uh and and really just to get to to seventy. Uh. To give you an idea is he's he's winning right now in both Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, and that gives him to seventy. So it's a three states step. Uh. The most direct rap that Joe Biden's got in order for Donald Trump to win, He's really almost got to
shoot the moon. He's he's a two hundred and thirteen electoral votes right now, and he not only has to try to hold those states that we just discussed, but then pick up Pennsylvania and UH that is a dead heat as as we talk so UM right now, I would say the most likely winner of this election is Biden based on where the current counts stand day. Uh. As Donald Trump said last night, stopped counting. If they stopped counting now, he loses. So I'm not sure that
strategy was a particularly good one. Well, that's interesting, so let's get into it. What what you know? We've already seen cases filed even before election day. We continue to see them. We just mentioned one about the count in Uh, Michigan specifically, I mean, what are your expectations about how that ultimately plays out and kind of delays us uh deeming a winner at this point. Rick, Yeah, I think
it's mostly a delay, not so much a change. Each of these states have their own rules associated with recounts, and that's what we're really talking about here. The states will finish up their business accounting these votes, uh, sometime in the next day or two, and that's what we anticipated.
There was a record amount of early votes. Many of these states, like Pennsylvania don't even start counting them until after the election day votes are counted, and and and and as a historic turnout, and so all those things combine added time of this election count after the counts are certified within ten days or after ten days, depending upon which state you're in. The the loser has a chance if he's within either a half a point in some states or one point to contest and um do
a recount. Uh. It's it's the loser's request. And so in some cases, the president may want to request a recount if he's within that half a point margin of air. Okay, So that's how it could play out legally. I mean, is this a case where you anticipate that this goes all the way to the Supreme Court. Are there any similarities to two thousand? Well, on a parallel track, there is talk on the president's part last night about taking it to Supreme Court. That is different than asking for
a recount. And if he takes to the Supreme Court, it's likely to be the same case that they took last week that the Court didn't hear, and that was whether or not to invalidate ballots that arrive after election day. In many of these states, they have rules like in North Carolina in Pennsylvania that if you mail your ballot by election day and it comes afterwards, it's still a good ballot. And the President has always had the approach that if a ballot shows up after election day, it
should be invalidated. And so that is a case where they've taken it to the Supreme Court once. It's likely that's what he was talking about last night. It's likely that they'll take that again to the Supreme Court, and we'll see what the Supreme Court says. The fact that they didn't hear it uh is not necessarily indication that they'll throw it out. What makes it a Supreme Court issue versus. And we're going to talk about the legal aspect in a little bit, but let me just put
it to you also because you understand this world. I mean, what would make it a Supreme Court case versus this is the state's right to determine how they handle the election ballots. That's right, and and and the states do have different requirements in every single state, there's some difference
in how elections are adjudicated. In this case, it's about invalidating a bona fide ballot in the in the federal government does protect the rights of voters, but it also does not see the rights of voters to go beyond state law. And in some of these cases, state law is a little ambiguous as to what it says about voting on an election day and then allowing ballost to
come in after the fact. These are usually laws that were on the books before there was early voting or before absentee ballots were so popular and so the voting was done on election day and that and there really was never posed a problem, you know, Rick, I do wonder based on the outcome and the states that were one of the close races that were out there can you determine maybe what strategies worked for each of the candidates, what mattered among voters, whether it was COVID or the economy.
What can you tell about kind of the specifics of strategy and kind of what mattered to voters. Well, I think both of the campaigns were successful at expanding the voter pool. In other words, it'll one of the largest turnouts in modern political history, and so both campaigns should be congratulated for finding new voters who otherwise have not
been participating. There were voters turning out in millions who had not voted in the last probably uh ten to fifteen years in presidential election, So so getting those to the polls was a great accomplishment for both parties. Donald Trump was successful, especially in places like UH Florida, finding votes that he otherwise hadn't been getting in the past. That includes a larger percentage of UH people of color
UH in in Dade County. That would include Cuban Americans who were susceptible to the UH charges of calling Joe Biden a socialist, and also penetrating the African American community in certain parts of the state UH and and even penetrating a little bit the suburbs, which you would not have thought he was going to get that vote back after the various approaches he took to uh you know, sort of his law and order approach. I would say Joe Biden really got much better at rebuilding the Democratic
Party base. If you'll notice the states that he's winning that Donald Trump took were traditionally Democratic states. Where he's ahead in places like UM, Wisconsin and uh Minnesota and Michigan. Uh, you know, these are states that the Democrats used to be able to rely heavily on. That that Hillary Clinton
lost to Donald Trump. And so he did a much better job of organizing the Democratic Party and and keeping it together even though he's running as a centrist and the energy and activists in the party tend to be toured on the liberal side. But he managed that well. So so both had talent, uh and in a closely contested election, what we really learned is just how divided the politics in America is today. Yeah, Uh, that is
for certain. I feel like if there's anything that we can kind of take away from that, um, from this election. What I do wonder too, is how does it shape what happens in especially when you look at a Biden win in Arizona, you know, watching some of the close races in the South. I mean, is the South now historically has been Republican. Now at play, Carol, You're you're exactly right. I mean it's worth noting that Florida is a split right, anybody could win that state, Republican or Democrat.
Georgia is now on the map as a swing state. Arizona, which hasn't voted but once in the last thirty years for a Democratic president uh, has now got two Democratic senators elected statewide over the last four years. Uh and Uh, and and and and So I think that you're right.
I think there is a new game in town, which is how do you cobble together these especially communities like Atlanta and in South Florida and Miracle County in Arizona, Phoenix that are just fast growth, heavy new populations coming into the state that sometimes reflect a different set of politics. And the Democrats, I think, have done a better job of attracting those voters right now than the Republicans have. Hey, really quickly forty five seconds polling full me once for
me twice. Um, what do we have to do to get it right, and is it that we just don't understand essentially the Trump voter. And just quickly, when you look at the election, it was an incredibly stable election. I mean the polling for the last sixty days has basically been, you know, Biden by little Trump, you know, coming from behind. There have been polls that have shown double digit leads by Joe Biden going into the election, but most of them were single digits in these states.
And that's what we got. Very close races in all the key states. So uh, there'll be a lot of internal looking at how these things were done. But when you have a historic turnout of over a hundred and fifty million people, most of the models are going to be wrong. What a what a what a week? What a year? It's not over hey, Rick, thank you so much. Always look forward to our conversations and your inside Bloomberg
contributor Rick Davis. He is former Republican strategists, as I mentioned earlier, former manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, and he's a partner at Stone Court Capital. He's been great coming on our air to talk about this campaign, in this election. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, listen, We've read and followed
his reporting so closely. He's gone through all the different types of voters that would determine the outcome of election. Back with us and so delighted to have with him. Josh Green, he's national correspondent Bloomberg business Week, author of Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Nationalist Uprising. Josh joins us on the phone from d C. Also with us, delighted as well, Bloomberg business Week editor Joe Webber.
He's on the access line in Brooklyn. But I feel like, you know, Joel, we have been talking with Josh, whether it was you know, key female voters, shy Trumper's Floridians with past felony convictions, We've been covering it all with Josh. You forgot about one of my favorites, which was Maricopa County, and that's actually kind of where I want to start with them. Uh, And we've got plenty more Josh Green coming as well, and you hope to talk to him
again tomorrow. But but Josh, let's start with that. I mean, at the beginning of the year in pre pandemic Times, the before times. I'm sure you remember them as finally as I do. We were talking about what our election year strategy was gonna be, and you were like, you know, it's not about the cities, it's not about the rural area.
It's about the suburbs. And you pointed to Americapa County, which you ended up writing about in the election issue, which was over the summer, and I'm wondering how you feel about that story. Now, Well, you know, I don't say this about all my work, but that one was was prescient and it it sure looks like it it holds up because you know, Joe Biden, the Democrats are winning uh Arizona at least according to a pH and Fox News, and uh, you know they did it because
they really carried Maricopa County was strong numbers. Now I should probably say that Trump folks had not conceded Arizona. I still think they have a path to victory, and given the level of polling error, I wouldn't rule anything out. But if you step back and look at the bigger picture, clearly, what we saw in Maricopa is what we saw in suburbs all across the country, which is we we we've
seen a red to blue transition under Trump. UM. I do think it's worth saying, though, that part of the story of the suburbs is what we expected to happen there last night, uh didn't happen quite the way uh that the most analysts were predicting, and that was just a massive wave that would sweep away Republican congressmen and smaller uh you know, red leaning suburbs like some in
Texas and Missouri, New Mexico, places like that. Um, what we actually saw was was the blue wave from a team begin to ebb and kind of come back a little bit in the other direction. But uh, you know, net, net, the suburbs have moved in a way that they're going to be responsible for Joe Biden's victory if he wins,
and right now it looks like he's winning. So let's talk about suburbs elsewhere other than you know, the Maricopa one, which, by the way, I was watching uh Fox News last night when Fox called it for Arizona, and the amount of just on air uh tension that it was like palpable. I mean, it was just like NonStop for the next several hours. Actually, you could tell the president was just
calling people. But you know, one of the thesis there was like, what happens in Maricopa County and this is in your story what happens in Maricopa County basically translate to suburbs at writ large across the country. Did that part hold up? Um? You know it did. It didn't
go as far as a lot of people were expecting me. Basically, the story of the suburbs, and this even for Dates Trump, is that they've moved from white collar, college educated publican voting Republican voting uh people, to you know, much more um multicultural group who increasingly have been voting Democrats. And we that that process has been going on for a while now. Part of it is that uh, you know is that wrote in Business Week the suburbs are becoming
more racially and ethnically diverse. But a big part of it under Trump is the attitudes of college educated white voters are just changing. And that process really sped up under Donald Trump, and it certainly hasn't gone away. Um. I think what was interesting that that we saw last night was that there appear to be limits to it.
And one of the big questions I had going in was uh, you know, in ten, a lot of Republican strategists said, you know, we may not be in that bad shape because, you know, even though you know we we lost, we're gonna have Trump on the ballot in We didn't have that in ten, and we think a lot of our voters will come out to support Trump. And Democrats universally did not believe that. Well, it turned out that people really are um, you know, driven to the polls by Trump on the one hand, and also
willing to split their tickets. So what we saw in some of these red leaning suburbs was that uh, college educated voters were voting against Trump but still willing to vote for their Republican member of Congress, which I think is interesting and one reason that Democrats didn't win back the Senate and are gonna have a much smaller and
larger than the House. You know, it's really interesting. I just spoke just before you guys, spoke with Rick Davis, a he ran um as manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, and he thought it was interesting and he thought that now the South is essentially in play based on kind of what happened in Arizona. You know, you brought up that point that it's going to be different.
Excuse me, like already thinking about how the outcomes here impacted what's to come and and and also just kind of commended both candidates and that they found new voters, people who had vote it for years. Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, you know, one of the stories of Republican success and Trump's success to the extent that you know he's not gonna lose this this race by ten points away a lot of polsters were predicting, was he did manage to turn out a lot of voters
who hadn't supported him in sixteen. Some of those are white working class voters. They might be shy, shy Trumpers who don't want to talk to pollsters, or it may just be that pollsters couldn't couldn't find them to interview them. You know. Part of the other story is Trump's increased
margins among Latinos, especially the Latino men. That was hugely costly the Democrats in in Florida, all across uh southern part of Texas where Democrats were hoping to win back Republicans and didn't um so, so he certainly brought in new voters but you know, Biden, on the other hand, if he wins, it's going to be because he won back a chunk of that blue collar vote in the Upper Midwest that heally lost, and right now that looks like his path of victory. Josh, can we come up
to speed with where things currently stay in Wisconsin? Was recently just a couple of minutes ago called by seeing in an ap for for Biden, Uh, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, all all sort of the ones that everyone is watching, and we'll basically determine the outcome. What are what are
you most interested in? How in all of this? Having having talked to people in both camps just in the last couple of hours, the Biden people feel very confident that they have two hundred and seventy electoral votes that they're going to carry filled uh Pennsylvania, UM, although that may take quite a while, that will ultimately prevail in Nevada, and that Biden will be the next president. They've been
saying that since this morning. The Trump people, on the other hand, though, have a really interesting path if they claim is still open for them, uh, that is that Trump will win Arizona despite the fact that the AP has already called it for Joe Biden. Um, that they will add in Pennsylvania, which they feel fairly confident that they can win, and that they will hold on in Georgia where it looks like they're going to run away
with it, and now things have gotten much closer. That would bring them up to two and seventy four electoral votes and it would give Trump a second term. So a lot to watch, um, you know, both in the electoral college and in the courts over the next couple of days. Well exactly, And you know, you talked about Wisconsin. We've just got a headline you know too, and a story that they're getting ready for a Trump recount request. We know he's already fought the lawsuit in Michigan to
kind of stop counting votes. So I mean, this just continues to drag on, at least for a little bit longer. Josh, definitely. Yeah, there's no question about that that things are going to move to the courts now. I mean, this is this is you know, not quite the worst case scenario everybody envisioned heading into the election, but it's not that far off from it either. And you have Trump having come
out last night and essentially declared victory and fraud. Um, you have things close enough that these court battles really couldn't matter. UM. So you know people have been saying from the get go, we may not know on election night. UM, that's definitely true. I think the hope is that we know in the next couple of days are certainly by this weekend, but no guarantee on that either. And Josh, any other final thoughts for you of of uh anything
else that's jumped out to you. I think what's jumped out to me is just what a terrible job posters and analysts in general did and calling this race. Even if Biden wins, it's going to be narrow. It isn't a blue wave. Democrats didn't win by crushing margins in
the House. And we can see it consistently that UH, polls were off not just by one or two or three points, but by seven or eight or nine points the states right after they were off in and and the necessary injustice were thought to have been made, well, there there are still some knobs that need to be fiddled here for these things to get accurate. UH. To me, understanding how that all went wrong is one of the
stories I'm gonna be watching. I gotta say, um, David Weston caught up with Frank Letts, who does polling as you know, big time, and he said, we've got to figure out how to understand the Trump voter essentially, and just said that a lot of times you've got Trump ooters and supporters who don't want to answer questions to posters because they don't like the media outlets that they represent or what have you, and then it tends to stew it. But we've got to be smarter about getting
that voter. I don't know what you think about that, Josh. I think that may be an element of it. But I also think that part of the problem is that polsters just aren't managing to find the Trump voters to talk to. You know, whether I don't know that it's a voter is saying, you know, I hate you, I don't trust you, I'm not going to give you honest answers. I just think the polsters have made a lot of flawed assumptions, and the fact is their jobs have gotten
much more challenging. People don't answer their telephone land life anymore. They have resorted to paying people to take online polls. Um. You know is one Trump person I was talking to earlier today said, you know, the idea that that is going to lead to a precise, pinpoint forecast of how an election gonna turn it is going to turn out is just insane. And I think the results already that there's something to that. Well, I'm waiting for your next book.
I'm just thinking, Josh, this has been a great year, um, in terms of an interesting year to write about, that's for sure. Bloomberg's, of course, Josh Green joining us from d C. He's our national correspondent at Bloomberg Business Week, and of course our thanks to Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Webber joining us on the access line in Brooklyn. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. So we'll be going to the U. S. Supreme Court.
We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at four o'clock in the morning and add them to the list. Okay, all right. Of course, that was President Donald Trump saying last night, or actually it was kind of the wee hours of this morning, uh, saying he will go to the U. S. Supreme Court because he wants all voting to stop as he tries to kind of hold on to some of his early leads and key battleground states. Of course, this election continuing
to evolve. Um, this Election Day Wednesday, again, it feels like, Um, I gotta say, I saw live last night when the President made those comments. Let's get into what is legally at stake and what can legally be done, because there's kind of two different things the Supreme Supreme Court issue versus kind of some of the lawsuits that we're already seeing begin to happen. Jim Grass was legal analyst, co
host of politics. Uh. Actually, yeah, Bloomberg Bloomberg Law. Sorry, I kind of forgot the name of me on the phone in New York City, Greg Store, who is Supreme Court reporter for Bloomberg News. Greg is on the phone in d C. So good to have you both here with us. Um, Greg, let me just start for you. Let me just kind of big picture because I think we see Supreme Court. Are we headed to the Supreme
Court here that we are? They're all, uh, you know, we all think back to two thousand Bush versus Score. That was really a perfect storm where you had one state that made the difference. That state was had a difference of five and thirty. Um, we're not there yet in this case. Um, it's certainly possible there will be some legal fighting. But you know, Donald Trump, if he's going to challenge the results, have to get a legal issue that that raised the problem either on the under
federal statute feral or the Constitution. And that has to be a legal issue that would make a difference that would actually swing the election in his direction. Um, and it's not clear we have that yet. All right, June, come on in on this. You must have been like, okay, Like where do I begin? So what are some of the illegal issues? There's a lot going on because as soon as you know, we've seen the cases kind of going into the election, and we continue to see them
come from uh, certainly right at this point the Trump campaign. Right, there are a lot of legal issues. But I agree completely with Greg that it doesn't look like right now that you have a legal issue in a state and it has to be a state that's going to be a tipping point in the electoral college and is decided by a razor thin margin, and you're litigating over this pool of contested votes that would change the result and
chip the election. So so far you have, for example, just this afternoon, the Trump campaign said that it's suing to stop Michigan from counting any more votes. Now, the problem with this is that what they're saying is that they weren't getting access to the counting enough access, and they weren't getting and they've used this in other states before and it hasn't worked. So and the other problem is that Michigan has said that they're likely to finish
counting most of the votes by tonight. So will ad judge intervened at this point to stop the Michigan count very unlikely. In Pennsylvania, you have the case that you know we've talked about before where the Supreme Court said that Pennsylvania at this point could count the ballots that
come in three days after the election. So those ballots are being segregated and as Greg can tell you better, but you know, the forced Conservative Justice is indicated they might be open after the election to looking at that. There's also in Pennsylvania another another lawsuit about a county that it's one county and it probably involves around forty
nine votes. According to the county of officials and whether or not they were they were reaching out to voters who had problems with their ballots and saying, you want to come in and fix it basically, But is that enough to you know, to merit any kind of you know, litigation. So it all depends. And I think that they're also going to go after absentee ballots and provisional ballots. The provisional ballot is when you come in and maybe you're in the wrong the wrong uh election place, or maybe
someone challenges you and then so those are questions. But how many provisional ballots and absentee ballots are having problems? That's the that's the point, right And and it gets too greg I think to what you were talking about, how close a race is, you know, whether it's going to be a state that would be a tipping point, you know, I mean there's a lot that goes into it before it makes sense on a legal level. Yeah. And one distinction to make you mention that Pennsylvania case
that's at the Substreme Court. That case, if it were to happen, would be about ballots that were cast before election day, were by election day and didn't arrive I've until up to three days later. You don't know how many ballots that is. You know, maybe it's in the tens of thousands. I'm that's just conjecture. Um. What you heard the president's last night, he was talking about stopping the voting, um, And that's something very different. There's no
legal claim to stop. Well, first of all, we were we weren't voting. Yeah, nobody is voting anymore. Um. And you know he wouldn't even be able to stop there's really no legal claim to stop the counting of votes that were clearly cast in time. We're only talking about, in the Supreme Court case, a relatively small segment of votes that were cast on time but haven't arrived yet. Also, Carol, I think it's a difference when you're challenging votes that have been cast by voters who have relied on the
rules in place. So if that goes to the Supreme Court, let's just say it goes to the Supreme Court, is the court going to say, no, we're going to discount your votes, voters, even though you know we know what the outcome would be if those votes were counted, and we know you relied upon the rule that we set in place. So I think that's another point that has
to be considered. And also, for example, in the Pennsylvania case, where they're challenging the way that they're they're asking people to come in and sort of cure their ballots, Well, why didn't they do that before? Have they waited too long to do that? Apparently they've been doing that for a long time there. So I think there's a lot There might be a lot of litigation, but I'm not sure that any of it is going to be sort of serious litigation. Yeah, I think it's really pretty interesting.
I mean, I do wonder, Greg, you know, at some point do we need to kind of take a bigger deeper dive, you know, into kind of the voting system and how it works. I know it's up to individual states, but you do wonder we were talking earlier about it could be so much easier with an app and we could just do it and kind of clear up some
of the confusion. Just got about forty seconds left. Yeah, that's gotta be something that everybody can agree on after after yesterday and today, um that our system of voting in this country is really really compli caated and it shouldn't be that complicated because you have all these state rules and then you have the federal law overlaid on
top of that in the electoral college. And yes, there's all sorts of potential for confusion and a feeling that that the voters might not have had their saying yeah, and forgive me, we've got still some more time. Well, you know, June, come on in on this, because I do think we all go to the poll, or we fill out our ballot mailing in and just assume that we could trust these systems. And it really does beg the question. It's kind of funny when I'm filling out
a ballot and I'm filling in circles. You know that in such a high tech world that we can't figure out a better way that secures it so that we don't have to have these legal questions. Uh, certainly a day after an election, right. But the the other side of that, and of course, you know everyone's all for like using an app and everything, the other side of that is if you don't have some kind of a paper ballot back up, then what happens when you want
to check the votes? It's it's all on computer. Are you're going to trust that, and if they're going to be you know, how are you going to do that? So that's another problem is that in past elections they have said that they need a paper ballot backup because that's the way you can trace everything. That's the way
you know where things came from. So and you know the problem is that you know, as Greg said, this is all based state to state and county to county within the state, so you have all it's not like your vote it's the presidential election, but what you're really voting is counties in states. You know, I don't know
how many across the country. And if there was more consistency at least, it wouldn't be as it is now where you're just every time someone, for example, Trump said that the Trump campaign is asking for a recount in Wisconsin. So okay, what are the rules in Wisconsin for a recount. It's it's one percent in Wisconsin, but it's half a percent difference in Georgia, and it's this, and it's that,
and it's so confusing. Well, and it's interesting because I think, and I'm curious what each of you think about this, And Greg, maybe you take it first, as I do think that there was a lot of nervousness leading up to this election about how much you know, kind of legal wrangling there would be. Um, it does feel like Greg though, that it's kind of quarterly right now. Yeah. Really, Um,
you know, we had a relatively few election day disruptions. Um, we had a flurry of activity at the Supreme Court the week before, but not so much in the couple of days immediately before. People seem to know for the most part what the rules were going to be. We do still have some lingering issues like the you know, the late arriving ballot in in Pennsylvania, But for the most part, even if you disagreed with them, you probably knew what the basic rules for voting and counting the
votes were in in all the swing states. Uh. So yeah, I would agree with that given what we thought could happen, like right on election day. Uh, there was not that much chaos on that day. Yeah, June, what are your thoughts on this as you were expecting, you know, what might happen and versus what actually has so far at least, right, I think that people are not talking enough about the
fact that all this violence was expected or anticipated. You know, you had uh, cities where the stores were boarding up their windows because of the fear of violence, and we really didn't hear about that, And I think that's really something to share about that we're not talking about that the day after. Um, there are some minor incidents here and there, but but nothing that you know, was so so outstanding that we would have to talk about it.
And um, I think Greg's right, we did. There are legions of lawyers out there for the Trump team, the Biden team, civil rights lawyers, conservative lawyers, and they have war rooms set up, so hundreds and hundreds of lawyers, and we've just seen very few lawsuits so far. So I think that you know, all considering and all the different rules that we've been talking about and all the controversy before more hand, that it's so far turned out pretty well. And to be fair, I mean, that's pretty
par for the course. In terms of elections. I mean, I think this has been an unusual year and it's a year where a lot of things have been laid bare. We're seeing kind of how the sausage is made when it comes to things. And I think even with the election, in terms of how many people vote in advance, how many states start counting in advance. Um, there's a lot of things that maybe we didn't realize as Americans, and
it's all kind of coming out. And even Greg, you know, to have both sides, the Democrats and the Republicans, the teams having lawyers in place just in case, that's pretty normal. It is pretty normal. Um, you know, maybe that there were more lawyers in place than the work uh four years ago or eight years ago, but yes, uh, certainly after Bush versus Gore, it has been standard fair that both sides race themselves and get ready for um, a
legal fight over the election. Uh. And uh that's just the nature of our complicated election system, the fact that that our elections, presidential elections are so close to these days. Uh, and the fact that we're a rather litigious society. Yeah, exactly, well, it certainly has made for some interesting times. Um, folks, thank you so much, really appreciate your INSIGHTE Gingrasso. She is, of course Bloomberg News legal analyst and host of Bloomberg Law.
You can catch a weeknights at ten pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio and our thanks so easy to Greg's store or go to when it comes to the Supreme Court. Here at Bloomberg News on the phone from Washington, d C. Ro a journal Now, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the right vel. I want to drive, just drives the questions. Try this is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks, We'll try us on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed, it is
time for the drive to the clothes. We do have equity markets rallying, coming off our highs of this session, but nonetheless some pretty decent games, certainly if you're a bullet in this market. Back with us, as Ernesto Ramos, he leaves the portfolio management and research teams for all equity strategy strategies are at Deemo Global Asset Management. Uh and they've got roughly two hundred and seventy billion in assets under management. Ernesto back with us on the phone
from Chicago. Nice to have you here with us. How late did you stay up? Hi, Carol's grint. I actually I actually couldn't take it for so I went to bed early, and I woke up this morning to check results quite early too. Uh So, yeah, it looks like we have a divided win here. Uh. If finding hangs on what should looks like you might then and UH and a Senate in Republican hands, which which is where
we we didn't anticipate. We anticipated the Blue Way, but this was our second highest probability scenario, so that came to truition, all right, So you guys worked it all out. So what does it mean for then the financial markets? I mean equity markets certainly weighing in today despite being kind of a radic later, but I understand I mean last night and into the wee hours because a lot of things kind of kept changing to some extent um.
Does the rally make sense to you today if you look at the action here, We think a lot of it has to do with unwinding trades that we're anticipating in blue weight like that. You saw that the whole month of October and early November was a cyclical value rally which anticipated a big which we think anticipated a big infrastructure package spend from from a Biden UH senate and a Biden presidency. We're clearly not going to get that. So I think it's a lot of unwinding of that.
And that's why secular growth in healthcare, because the public option is probably off the table now for for for for the market, so that that's why healthcare is railing. But just you see the secular growth doing very well, the cyclicals and more value not doing as well. And basically we think it's an unwind up that position that took place for the last month and in a week
if you want to. But but I do wonder what it means in terms of Okay, so if we've got we've got a Republican Senate, we've got a mixed Congress, and if we do end up with Joe Biden the White House, but again let's just remind everybody the race is yet to be called, and we've got lawsuits certainly coming.
We've seen more headlines from the Trump campaign. But I do wonder, um, especially when it comes to stimulus, if we have an economy that's going to need some assistance and we don't get the biggest package that we need, I do wonder the impact that that's going to have on the economy, and ultimately it's going to have, you know, an impact on what goes on in the financial markets that ultimately will sew up there. So are you thinking about that? Are you worried about that? It's a matter
of fact. Yeah, we are thinking about that. We are a little bit more embarish on growth than we would have been with a blue wave, just for from the pure simple method you just explained. When you have a port tralion, let's say trillion UH for trillion fiscal package, you're gonna get a lot of government spending, a lot
of infrastructure projects that will accelerate growth. Now you have a divided Congress, you probably also might get a little bit more of a shutdown UH to deal with the pandemic, given that that biding is more prone to to doing some stuff like that than than the Republicans were. So and then we think there's a slight negative effect short
term for the economy. Now there's a positive longer term, which is if we get a better handle on the pandemic because we do things in a more systematic, coordinated and effect that we're dealing with, that that that long term will pay off. But in the short and medium turn called the next I don't know, three to six months, we might have a negative and the fact that you
don't get that package. Now, hopefully the consumer get some relief in terms of additional employment benefits and I'm the second round of PPE, but that's probably also going to be toned down what from what it would have been had we had a United Democratic president in the Senate.
So because Biden will still have to deal with with Mitch McCollum, the Republicans in the Senate with are not going to be less inclined to given what he wants, had it been Trump asking for it, or had it been as republicansented being the one to give it to them. All Right, So in a crazy year, it's politics probably as usual. So that's interesting, um and and to be expected. Hey, let's talk about a couple of names, and now our listeners like to get into a Costco is a name
that you like? Um, I guess it makes sense, right, consumers continue to shop there and they will increasingly so even if there's a shutdown again. Yeah. So so the Loval Autility portfolio, the Demore Loveal Autility portfolio is right, the perfect portfolio for this kind of situation where you
have potential additional shutdowns, potential additional stay at home. Uh not necessarily the strongest cyclical and growth and so these are consumer defensive names like like your cost cous of the world, your Crogers of the world, um, your auto zones of the world, where people do is self repairs because they don't have a lot of excess money. A little bit of defensiveness by holding a company like Neumont, which gives exposure to go when the markets go down,
that that helps you out. But but really it is a defensive portfolio. And the other thing that does protect against its volatility. Not only does it does it reduce the the exposure to the economic cycle, but it also dampens the moves up and down of your portfolio relative to what the mark it is doing. So on a day like the day, we're gonna lag, but on the day when the market is down hard, we're going to do a whole lot better than the market. And that's
that's exactly the purpose behind the low risk approach. What do you think about PepsiCo? Is it a similar idea or a little bit different? I know you also get
a little bit of a dividend there as well. Oh, not to mention, all of the names that we own basically in this portfolio, with a few exceptions, pay nice dividends because they're made up of stable, mature companies that are very strong operating fundamentals, but are not growing at the rate that they need to all their capital to be reinvested in their own business, so they pay nice dividents.
Our portfolio dividend rate is higher than that of any of the benchmark and that's one of the benefits of owning an additional benefit and especially good in this environment. So with such low yields in the bond market, but this is almost a a bond like in terms of income portfolio. Yeah, I'm hearing that. I'm hearing that from more and more investors, and I'm assuming that that's also so PEPSI obviously with a dividend. Walmart also, um, you know, which has got a nice little you know, it's got
a decent dividend as well. Stocks also up about this year. Yeah, and these again, Walmart is it's not only a good stay at home name, but it's also one of the very few companies is competing effectively against Amazon in the online space. So it's got a lot of good thing going forward. The dividend, the competition against Amazon, to stay at home nature of it, and the fact that it's a it's a Staples at the end of the day
type of name. So you want to stay exposed to equity, but we think you ought to do it in a in a in a relatively defensive way because things you've seen in the last few months. Uh, and the fact that the economy hasn't really followed the market as much we would like it too. Alright, good leave it. It's Ernesta. I gotta jump in because we're we're running down the clock. Here. Ernesta Rama over at BMO Global Asset Management, joining us on the phone in Chicago. Thanks so much for listening
to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News.