This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
All Right, everybody, to say that a lot has happened since we last checked in with our next guest would be an understatement.
Big time.
Or Levine last joined us earlier this year, before the October seventh Hamas attack on Israel. Or as you know, Many is the co founder, of course, of the navigation app Ways, which Google bought for more than one point one billion dollars. Who's also an investor in move It, which then Tim Intel bought for a billion dollars.
Well I spoke to him because of his new book, fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution, a handbook for entrepreneurs. It details his journey and also his unique philosophy on what it takes to be a successful innovator. He's a graduate from the Tel Aviv University and served
in the Israeli Army Special Intelligence Unit. He started both Ways and moved companies in Israel, which of course is currently at war with Hamas in the Gaza strip or good to have you back here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. How are you doing?
You know, it's complicated, right, because it's never going to be the same. It's never going to be the same. That was a devastating attack. That was you know, my kids are the age between twenty two and thirty three. They could have been at this party, and there were many days that that was my main thought of the day,
that I'm lucky that they weren't. That was devastating. And I think that at the end of the day, if you look into the future or you realize that they might be a solution, but without Hamas being.
There, Well that's what we think about. We talk a lot about the way forward. I've talked to people I feel like on both sides, and when I say sides, I don't mean on Hamas's side, but I mean on the Palestinian point of view, the Israeli point of view, about how do we go forward? How do we stop that we don't find five years from now, ten years we're still talking about conflict in that region. How do you think about that?
So look at the end of the day, if you think about the Palestinians and Gaza strip and you ask yourself whether or not Tramas was doing any good for them. Not really, they were doing very good for themselves, but not for the people. And look, Israel left the Gaza Striep some seventeen eighteen years ago. There was an opportunity to build awesome ness there and Ramas to go over. And basically this is a terrorist organization, right They're only agenda that they have is to kill us, and that
doesn't work. We guess what we don't want to be to get killed?
Can I ask you? And I feel like this is such a difficult conversation. We've had a lot of times in the newsroom. Tim and I've talked a lot of times after a show or after a guest. You know this concept. I get it of having to fight back, but this concept of killing and then more killing, and it's just like where does it stop or how does it stop? And how do you justify that on both sides? I understand.
I So, number one, you know, I'm not the Prime minister. It's not for me that needs to make those decisions. But at the end of the day, if you realize that if Ramas is being removed from the region, then there are opportunities for something else completely different, right, because at the end of the day, most people prefair leaving over dying, right, And most of the people in the
Gaza Strip it's the same for them. The challenge is that the leadership of the Haramas is the one that is basically enjoying the killing on one hand and the power in particular that they have. And I think that once they are being removed, there is an opportunity and I see major role of the US, major role of Saudi Arabia helping to recreate something new in the Middle East.
Well, talk a little bit about that, because that's a part of the equation that I'm having trouble seeing here the solution and what actually happens. And it sounds like you think Hamas can be removed from power. So let's say Hamas is successfully removed from power in the Gaza Strip, what would you like to see happened?
So again we have to realize that what I would like to see has I have zero influence on that, or maybe a little bit of influence, but that's about it. But I think that the opportunity here is that really recreating something new with the support of the American with the support of the Saudis, and basically establishing sort of normalizations in the relationship. Right now, if you look at the history of Israel, every time there was a major crisis,
two things happened. Number one as well grew up stronger. Number two, we actually figure out a way, a different way, right. That's true for the Yong Kipoor War back in the seventy three, and after that we had a piece with Egypt, right, And that's true for World War Two where the Holocaust happened, and after that there was a Jewish statement. And so at the end of the day, I think that October seventh is such a major crisis that it will lead
into something else, and you know, hopefully as soon as possible. Right, But when is that going to happen?
We don't know, do you believe?
I mean, you work with individuals in Palestine or in the Strip, in.
God Strip, not specifically, but with you know, otter nations in the region.
Yes, What I guess what I'm curious about is why we haven't been able to figure out a two state solution up to this point.
I would say that you have to ask the leadership that I think that at the end of the day.
But is that a solution? You're smart man, you actually think out of the box.
Obviously it is right at the end of the day. Well, Hamas really created severe porn poor people in the Gaza strip right now, when you are poor and you have no hope, you have nothing to lose, right if you create something else, If people have something to lose, then they would prefer peace over war time after time in the history. When people have something to lose, then they actually prefer the stability rather than the instability. And in many cases this is you know, the craziness of the
leadership that leads into acts of war. Right, so we can see the same thing with Russia and Ukraine, and we have seen that throughout many cases in Europe, in the Middle East, in other places.
So what do you think of when people will say you talk about Russian and Ukraine and tim and I. You know, we've had a lot of discussions with individuals this idea that we are so opposed to the Russian occupation of Ukraine, and then people say, well, why aren't you similarly upset about the Israel Israeli occupation of Gaza.
Israelis not occupying Gaza, and Gazza is a free place for the last Israel withdrawn from Gaza strip some seventeen or eighteen years ago.
We are not occupying Gaza. Kamasi is occupying Gaza.
What would you say is the prevailing view within your social circle about the way this ends?
Sorry? Can you repeople?
Yeah, what's the conversation that you're having with your fellow entrepreneurs, with your friends, with your family right now about the way this ends?
So, in general, I would say tough time creates stronger people. Stronger people then creates better times, right than ISRAELI is in under tough time right now. Entrepreneurs are going to be the first one to recover and they will be recovering strongly and better after that, because what happened during war is that the forget all the horror things that happens.
In the war. After the war, people are way.
Stronger and they realize that there is a defense choice for them, which is leaving, and they realize that now if they survive, that they can survive anything.
We're pleased to add back with us Ory Levine to continue our conversation as many of you know. He's the co founder of the navigation app Ways. Google bought it for more than at one point one billion dollars more than a decade ago at this point, also an investor and move It, which Intel bought for a billion dollars. We're going to get to how he's thinking about startups right now, especially in Israel where he built these two companies,
in just a second. But I do want to continue the conversation that we're having earlier about the environment there. Right now, in the wake of the October seventh attack from Hamas, I want to talk economy a little bit because I don't think people understand that when people get called back to the military, they leave their jobs to go back to the Israeli military. So there's a whole element of the Israeli economy that's not working the way that it should right now.
Are you seeing the.
Effects of that day to day that there is a shortage of workers, that there are a lot of people who I mean, I have friends on Facebook who've posted Israelis who've said, you know, my husband is away fighting right now because he got called back. She's a tour operator who does restaurant tours, for tourists. There's no tourists there right now, so she literally they literally have no income coming in right now as a result of this.
So not exactly, because when you're doing your military or reserve, you do get from the Social security the same pay at you what gotlin if you were working. But if you look at the impact of them war on the economy, then I would say, for a second, obviously budget for security and is going to go up dramatic. Then that's we all realize the war costs money some markets, some industries are completely suffering from that, right like tourism right there is there there are no tourists going to Israel,
right And I don't blame them, right they shouldn't. It's there is a war there and they don't feel safe.
And that's all.
High tech industry is actually getting stronger because what we are realizing is that the people that are still there, they are carrying the load for all the people that are going on the military or reserve and so forth. And what we have seen is that the productivity increased dramatically. And when people that will be coming back from the military reserve, then we are likely to see.
Huge growth in the high tech.
In general, the challenge right now for the high time, the Israeli high tech, that it's harder to raise capital, right, so most of the investors will prefer to be.
On the fence.
And and you know, way to see that the war is over, right, investing in a war zone people afraid, and they rightly.
So that's interesting to hear because you've also got a group of very vocal Americans who are happy to give to Israeli causes. And I would think that some of those would be supportive of a venture capital. Of course, they in the country, they to kind of help prop it up the time.
They do, and they will.
But in general, if you look at the you know, non Jewish investors or non engaged investors, then they have more challenging time, not all of.
Them, but a lot.
Or is there anything you've put on hold because that's home base for you, correct Israel?
Or so why you know I keep on building. Look, I have a very simple life. I have a mission, I have a destiny, I have a purpose and this is about value creation, right, and then I can create value through multiple ways, through you know, building startups that help people, through you know, coaching and mentoring, a group of CEOs that of my startups through teaching and through you know, the ultimate way of teaching is the book itself.
They're falling up with the problem, not the solution. Book is by and large it This is sharing my know how with people and hopefully make them more successful.
What's the problem that you see right now that needs to be working.
Exactly? Take a pick.
So the good news is that there are a lot of problems. The bad news is that there are a lot of problems right end of the day, there are a lot of problems. One of the you know, major problems that we are addressing recently is actually in the US the realization that most people will not have enough saving for retirement. And so Pontera is one of the companies that is helping that in the US help people
to eventually retire richer. And so this is and this is a big problem at the end of the day when people get old and they don't have enough money. This is a big problem. So this is one of the things that I'm trying to do with my startups. And you know, dealing with parking. Parking is a major problem right now in generally you would say wait a minute, in the US, it's less of a problem because most people live in a single family house and they have
a driveway and they have parking garage. But the rest of the world, most people live in multi family houses, multi story houses, and they don't have parking garage, and then looking for parking at the end of the day, it's a nightmare. And this is you know, my most recent startup that we started that a couple of years ago and and it's staling is well and hopefully it will grow to address that because parking.
Is a major problem. Yeah, we could use that in Brooklyn, I know. Okay, Well, is something.
I wonder, you know, when I think about so much. This year, we've talked about artificial intelligence and generative AI, and some are concerned that it's going to take jobs
away from people. I see it more as complementary. But having said that, I do think about job creation in the future because economies, whether it's the Gaza strip, if people have a way to make a living and build a much more productive life, or whether it's in Israel or whether it's in other developing markets, if you can create a better life for yourself, it's just a better, more peaceful place, right even create an economy. So are
there I don't know. Are we moving increasingly towards a world though, where technology is replacing jobs at a faster pace than we can make them Unless you're coder, you know.
I think that I hear that for the last fifty years.
Right, So.
Even if you think of the revolution of agriculture, that we started to have tractors and combine the defferent machinery, and everyone say it, oh, this is going to take away the work of the farmers, and guess what, it didn't. So every time that there is an innovation, we tell ourselves, oh, this is going to take away all the jobs, and then you look at the unemployment rate and it doesn't change, or maybe it's becoming better, because what happened is that
that technology by and large increased productivity. And when it increased productivity, then we can create more. And when we create more, then more people actually have a better life.
So not worried about AI in the end of.
Us all, not at all.
What I think that we might find out that there are some areas that we will need to establish regulation. So if I'm speaking with a person, then that's one thing. But if I don't know that I'm speaking to a machine might be a different thing. So maybe the machine will need to identify itself and tells me I'm a machine and clear about it. And this is something that I think that eventually we will need to have.
Do you think that AI is close, as Elon Musk believes two becoming smarter than humans?
Wow, that's a big thing.
No, No, I think that we hear that for the last fifty years or computers are going to be smarter than people. Oh, we don't need people, We don't need the human brain. The human brain something that video fifty years ago, right, But then you know, end of the day, I think that the creativity and the adaptability is something that only humans would have and at the end of
the day, that part is not going to be taking away. Now, whether or not you can scan way more information in a fraction of the sick and absolutely yes, Whether or not you can process some of the things way faster, yes, but not the same order of magnitude what the human mind can do.
Thirty seconds left. We've talked about a lot, and obviously it's a very stressful world right now. Final thoughts that you want to leave our audience as we get ready for a new year.
So I think that in just about thirty seconds.
Sorry.
Value creation, right, value creation when you create value and evaluate the way you create for otters, not for yourself. If we think about value creation, then we end up with a purpose to a life. And when we end up with a purpose to a life, we're going to be happier and leave wrong here and the war is going to be a better place.
Thank you so much, thank happy new year. To the new year is a calmer one, more peaceful one.
And better one way it will be.
Okay or OLIVI, thank you so much. Always appreciate it. Con founder of Ways and so much more. As we talk about we've talked about his book fall in Love with the Problem, not the Solution of handbook for entrepreneurs. He has it on his T shirt. For those who are watching.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I mean to the moon.
Let me play up there with those stars.
Blue eyes, you know what we're talking about. Space in the Moon.
I do because it's the next frontier.
For drug manufacturing.
Yeah, it's really interesting. This story is in the forthcoming issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine. I want to read a little bit from it because it's so good. Red Night is pigmentosa is a genetic cause of blindness. Some people know it as RP. There's no cure or treatment for it right now, but there's a startup that's working on it, and it has big plans to develop the world's first protein based artificial retina, which could help patients who have RP.
Here's the thing. Manufacturing the retina involves depositing two hundred paper thin layers of a light sensitive protein in a polymer mesh. Sounds pretty difficult, right, Yeah, Well, it turns out the protein layers must be perfectly even for the retina to work properly, and that's really difficult to do here on planet Earth.
Right, So the company has turned to the International Space Station in the hopes that micro gravity there could help. Incredible story. Robert Langreth is healthcare reporter for Bloomberg News, and in the forthcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week, he writes about drug companies that are exploring making the most lucrative drugs in space. You can read his story now on the Bloomberg and at bloomberg dot com Slash business Week. Also here with us the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Jill
Weber here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Tim and I read this and we're like, Bob gets to do the coolest stories.
It's always one of those studies.
We're like, oh my god.
Although Joel, I don't think he got to go on the ISS to do this.
I mean, you know, it's kind of in a precarious situation, this thing with the US and Russia. Anyway, the just go to I could send him there bomb you heard it from these guys, you have permission so to ask at least. So we're started to do a little space package. There's a lot happening up there, it turns out, and there are some expected things like what SpaceX is up to you and the race to catch them, but there's also I thought some more interesting things of like applications
that you've probably never heard of. And it turns out that you know, you mentioned micro gravity. There there are some novel use cases for what can be accomplished in space. So so Bob walk us through it. What is uh, what can we do in space that we can't do as well here on Earth.
Yeah, So it turns out, you know, a lot of the drugs that drug makers are making these days are proteins or things like monocle and antibiodies or cancer drugs, and these are that are that are infused. And these are you know, complicated, finicky molecules and notoriously difficult to produce on Earth in their crystal form. So it turns out that without gravity, or without much gravity, you know, it becomes much it's much easier to form like a large,
large and very uniform crystals. And that is it turns out, can enhance formulations and even potentially some existing drugs. So drug maker merk it's working. It's worked on a new formulation of it's just blockbuster cancer drug k Truda. Now that's the cancer drug that Jimmy Carter got. It's for the melanoman all sorts of other ones, but right now it must be infused, like you have to go to the doctor's office and infused there over a couple hours.
Uh.
And the dry it would really like to put that in injectable forms, you could do just a self administered injection, potentially even at home. But to do that, it needs to be able to concentrate that con true to much more to be concentrated now, and if you did it
with the current formulation, to be get like molasses. So it turns out they did some experiments in space and the International Space Station and they came up with a way to concentrate it much more and keep it fast flowing, and that was experiment using microgravity.
It's a little bit of freezing. We're we're trying to freeze them and then bring Bob back.
It's like you're joining us from the International Space Station. You actual you know, please pause for we wanted to be realistic.
Job.
I'm sorry, continue about taking about keep I'm sorry.
I got a thing saying my internet connection was unstable. I haven't gotten that all day until I.
Remember that's how I remember the pandemic.
Yeah, yeahs, no problem, that's the first time.
Yeah.
So Mark is working on a new formulation of cap Truda's it's big selling drug that was kind of first the concept for was first device in space, and the fact that they might go into clinical trials is something that was the first you know devised in space that's excited a lot of gotten a lot of interest in you know, space based drug development.
Uh.
And other companies like Eli Lilly is up there with some experiments now and you even now have startups that once the International Space Station is decommissioned, you know, sometime after twenty thirty that are working on developing you know, automated kind of drug formulation laboratories in space. It'd send some experiment up and then it come back down and drug companies could work on it.
Okay, so when does this happen? Why don't we have this already? Bob?
Well, you know, these are all kind of like, you know, I'd like to say, these are all kind of like early experiments. So say they're drug companies and setting up experiments by the way out into space for really for decades and there their first experiments were kind of like early stage aimed at like early stage drug crystallization, where to crystallize GOT disease, promote promoting proteins so they could
design better drugs. And in fact, a unit of a Suka Holdings that's a Japanese company, they have a drug in final stage trials in Japan for muscular dystrophe. There was was base and some very early work you know, done early in the early days of International space study space station crystallizing a muscular dystrophy associated protein. But what's happening now is there actually Americans and others are showing you could actually devise you know, better formulations on existing
blockbuster drugs. And that's really driven the attention to like maybe you know space is like, you know, could really like help us get some new patents and make a lot of money. So that's really driven interest.
So whose job is it to figure out how to do this in space? Like, you know, Tim, Tim, if you're gonna make you know, car breaks in space, I'm sure you can figure that out. But Bob, what about it?
You don't want to see how far I made it the math but in college?
But uh, but within pharmat like, whose job is it to figure out space manufacturing?
Yeah, so at the big you know, drug makers, there's relatively you know, small numbers of people like working on it, so it's still a niche field. I'd say, you know, if you go to a big drugmaker, I would imagine there's probably a lot more people working on AI than space, but you know, you know, space is like you know, garnering interest. Some of the people I talked to, their titles are like, you know, director of formulations, development titles
like that. But these experiments are are hard. You know, you you sent something up to the space station and you know you get it back down a few months later, and if you like screwed up in the design and experiment, you know your next shot or the next experiment maybe you know six months later. So you gotta got you gotta do it. Be very careful with experimental design. You can't, like it's hard to call an astro and say, hey, I want to change everything midstream once is up there.
So there's even a whole set of like companies that help drug makers like have like self enclosed experiments that can send up that are like.
All ready to go.
The astront presses a couple buttons to turn it on and then presses a couple buttons to turn it off. You know, you can't. It's hard to adjust the audition midstream once you're up in space.
The button pressing job it doesn't sound bad. So Bob, I want to get to this idea of scaling and make sure I understand what's actually happening in space. I want to go back to the company that you used in the lead here, LAMB Division, who's working on the
world's first protein based artificial retina for patients with retinitis pigmentosa. So, if it's so hard to actually create these two hundred paper thin layers of light sensitive protein in on Earth, does that mean that they won't be able to scale it in an environment that's not zero gravity.
Yeah.
So they're one of the few companies that's right now is talking about actually, as I understand it, manufacturing finished product, you know, in space. And if you think about their product, it's like literally it's a size of a whole punch, like a paper whole punch. That's like, you know, so you get I guess you get one or two of these if you're a patient. So they don't need that much finished product. You know, it's a relatively small market.
I mean, this is not like an infused drug where you're going to be giving you know, two hundred millilters every two weeks for the rest of your life. That's more like merks K true to the they make it, Mark and K true to their cancer drug. They make it like by the ton on Earth and their experiments
in space. So far, I've made like one dose at a time, so you can see that it's not right now practical wouldn't be even if there are even though there are technical advantages, it would not be practical for them to make the finished product in space. But for something like this artificial retina, where the total quantities needed are very very small, and I imagine if they ever get this to market, it's going to be sold for
a very high price. You know, you can imagine that's an actual like possibility to actually make that in space.
Would you take the one that's been made in space, knowing that there's massive quantities on Earth, it's practically the same thing. It's just been made in space. Like, why wouldn't Why wouldn't I do it?
Why not?
I don't know.
That the regulatory question no one's even gotten to, Like, you know, if something actually were made in space, or even if like there's another idea they're talking about. It's making like a seed crystal in space, use the better conditions of space to make like little seed crystals that they could then be used sort of like a sour to start being brought down to Earth and able to
grow bigger quantities on Earth. But even there, like the FDA, how would the FDA regulate that, there's a whole I guess said of unknown like questions there.
Yeah, FDA is not having any problems with oversight. We did that story actually earlier today. Having said that, how easy is did you duplicate the process of space drug or manufacturing drugs in space on Earth? Can we create that? Recreate that?
Yeah?
So the way to think of it with some of these drug formulations are trying to make better like easier to use injectable drug formulations, And the way to think about that is that there's just like you know, there's a million conditions you can put in to get something
to crystallize. The temperature, the pressure, you know, the concentrations, many, many conditions you can try almost an infinite number, and just things form a little without the microgravity because crystals are these kind of slow forming, finicky things, and without the convection is one of the things that goes away the fluid convections, so and that's reduced and that gets better,
just gets better quality crystals in many cases. And so the way to think about it is they get an idea in space like in these better conditions, and then once they know what they're looking for, they then find you find a way to duplicate that back at the factory here on Earth. And that's what Merk did with this new formulation of k truda that may go into clinical trials.
Okay, So so Merk seems to be all over this. What about other drug manufacturers are you know, is there really a race like as often is the case in space space for drug or or is everybody else.
Under space race? Mark has a competitor in cancer drugs, and that's Bristol Myers Squid and they make a rival to k truda called Updivo, and they indeed are putting experiments up into space like you're looking at protein crystallation, you know, and uh, you know, they they do say it includes cancer, but they won't to say which drugs and are involved. But all I can say is they
do make a direct rival to k truda. So, you know, drug companies, you know, historically, you know, once one company does something, you know the others want to try it out.
Wait, not like a dry diet drug or anything.
Well, so far I've not heard of any diet drugs you know that maide in space. But uh, you know, I'll keep reporting.
We should make journalism in space just just.
Just volunteering together.
I mean, you know, Bob, Bob was already going to go check it out most cost effectively, Bob.
See if that corporate card will cover that SpaceX trip.
Okay, Hey, listen, I hate to be a bummer on all of this, but isn't the International Space Station at risk of being decommissioned after twenty thirty? So, like does that put kind of a damp run all on this?
Well, there's companies like, you know, there's like private startups and companies like are working on like what's after the space station. There's one small one, you know, startup that actually has like a little satellite that's like a little drug production lab. They hope it's gonna be a little
automated drug formulation production lab up there. Now for their first mission, they've had some problems getting the reentry capsule back down because they need FAA Federal Aviation Administration permission. They haven't been able to get it yet. So it illustrates some of like, you know, the potential snags involved in space based production.
Yeah, okay, well we know where Big Farmer is, which is the final frontier. You know, I'm curious to see if if this is for real though, I mean, like, sure, you can make a couple applications, but scale seems maybe not easy to get there. Tim's going to try break pads and report back.
But the payoff is potentially huge here. I mean, if you can cure blindness with artificial retinas, Like even though Bob says it's a relatively small number of people, I mean, people would pay so much for that.
You you need, you know, some microgravity, what's that? That's why it's there for you.
I think the key word we use in the headline is that the drug companies are exploring this, you know, yeah, right, not a deal, and you know, I think the way to think of it, they're doing experiments up there that are going to help help them, you know, devise new formulations and new versions of their drugs. But it doesn't necessarily I mean those are actually those final drugs are actually going to be produced in space.
I think we call that the to be sure graph implement or the third word in the headline.
Well, I'm just going to say thank you, Bob, because I've been just saying drugs in space.
It sounds really cool.
It does sound really cool. I'm very interesting in terms of maybe we could see down the road. Bub Landgreth, thank you so much. Everything you do is just, uh, we learned something and it's a fun read and interesting read. Healthcare reporter here at Bloomberg News on zoom in San Francisco. He is not on the International Space Dage.
So as far as we know, despite the fact that there were some Internet connectivity issues. But yeah, you never know, really really interesting stuff. I'll be the guy who presses the button stroll that sounds like we can.
Fight over it.
Exactly what he has Joe Webber, of course, the editor of Bloomberg Business We check this out in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week.
It's also online.
M MAC.
The journal. Now about you let me drive?
No, no, no, honey, please, I'll.
Wait.
I want to drive.
It's a question.
This is the drive to the globe. We'll buy around each other down on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, everybody, just about seventeen minutes left in today's trading session. Right here on Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Carol Master, along with Tim Stanovick, Hey Tim, among our most read on the Bloomberg. It's one about the message coming from Wall
Street about investor optimism running dangerously high. It points about our points to overstretched technicals and the belief that the Fed will not cut interest traits as quickly as markets expect, are behind a pessimistic turn from equity specialists over JP Morgan, Chase, Morgan Stanley. I mean people who just kind of saying, flow your role a little bit.
I mean, it's been a kind of a wild five or six weeks, hasn't it. As Golden Sachs the point right, Yeah. Managing director Scott Rubner put it in a report there a quote no longer any bears left.
It's pretty amazing. Let's see what our driver to the closed guest has to say about that. With us back with us as Aaron Kennon, CEO over at Clear Harbor Asset Management. He's co founder of the firm. They've got about a billion in assets under management. He joins us on Zoom from Stanford, Connecticut. Aaron, good to have you back with us. Are there any bears left?
Well, that's a great question. If you look at the underbelly of the market, Carroll and Tim, I mean, certainly there's a lot of caution. I think that that can be seen. You know, look at the four or ninety three stocks outside the S and P five hundreds, Magnificent seven. They're only up a few percentage points on a year to date basis, and those seven stocks are up about ninety seven percent. So I think there's a tale of two stories going on across the market. Even global indices.
For that matter.
You look at the All World Index and it's about eighteen percent allocated to the Magnificent seven, and so pe multiples on those four hundred ninety three stocks are trading at about sixteen times or so, and the Magnificent seven
are trading trailing at about fifty times. And so maybe that's the glass half full point that, you know, the rest of the market, even though we haven't seen much of a move higher from a performance perspective, this year, could have could have some legs in twenty twenty four if the economic picture is relatively okay.
Do you think the economic picture is going to be relatively okay next year?
Well, I think a lot hinges Tim on employment. You know, we saw the jolts data today weaker than expective, but you know, certainly still relatively strong. Jobless claims have trended downward on a trend line basis, but still relatively strong. And we'll have a read through on the job's data too, and so on the jobless non farm payrolls data too
later on so in the week. So I think a lot will hinge on the employment picture if the GDP and economic data set more generally rolls over and we go into a more recessionary like period in twenty twenty four from multiple quarters. Even if we have a disinflationary continuation with the FED cutting rates, I think that's probably bad for equities, But I think that there's a scenario that could very well play out where growth remains positive,
maybe trends lower, but positive, and disinflation continues. That could be very bullish for both bonds and potentially equities where that correlation remains positive in twenty four.
Is that likely?
Might it happen? Where would you place your bet in terms of the scenario for next year or do you feel like it's kind of up for grabs right now?
I mean, I think it's somewhat up for grabs. But I just point of caution is employment is the last leg of the stool that tends to break as we enter a recessionary period, and that has just started to soften on the margin here, while other data sets carol like manufacturing and some indications on the consumer, whether it's credit card lines, I mean just the student loan repayments just restarted at the end of October, and so I think there's still some negative headwinds that are going to
work through the pipeline as we enter twenty twenty four, which is also why I think we should expect at least a deceleration in GDP.
What are some other reasons, other reasons for yeah, for a deceleration and GDP.
Well, I mean you look at China, Tim Good Good example, this year, as we waded into twenty twenty three, everyone thought, well, China's going to reopen, and the back half of twenty twenty three is going to be all about China exporting inflation and exporting growth in economic activity. I think that's a big question mark for the overall global economy. Frankly, my sense is just looking at the data set there that things are quite weak. You look at personal bankruptcy
data in China is skyrocketing. You look at the real estate picture on the commercial side in China and the delinquencies and defaults happening there, it's a rather significant problem. They tried to transition their economy from an export driven economy to a consumer growth, domestic growth driven economy, and clearly that has proven very problematic in twenty twenty three, and so that'll be a huge question mark as we go into twenty twenty four.
How much.
In terms of portfolio allocation? And I'm assuming you know, Aaron, we've talked, you know, for a long time. You know, you set things, and I'm assuming for a lot of your clients it stays pretty consistent. But having said that, I'm sure there are tweaks. Is there a tweak to be made right now as we get ready to enter a new year in your investment strategies?
Yeah, that's a good question, Carol. I mean, you're right, we do care deeply about acid allocation, and thinking though about the fundamentals of each ascid class does inform us as to when we think a tilting may be warranted, or even within an acid class an adjustment may be warranted.
So for example, even in fixed income, we went into twenty twenty three and it looked like very short maturity high yield was worth allocating to, even though the correlation is high to the equity market and so on, the margin became a little more constructive on how yield in twenty three. In twenty four we have a similar posture on that particular point because we don't see high yield issuance for refinance occurring really into until twenty twenty five
and twenty six. Right about eight one point eight trillion dollars of refise happening in high yield over the next three years, but it's captured on the back end. But maybe the most important point is ensuring that there is ballast in the portfolio, particularly if economic growth declines and
disinflation continues. You want to ensure that you not only have the treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities in our opinion, but you want to make sure you have a sufficient amount of duration to counteract what could be a weaker equity market environment. And so you know, those slight adjustments we're always thinking about making, obviously in conjunction with conversations with clients and their liquidity needs.
And that sort of thing.
Well, certainly helpful as we get ready to close out the year. Not sure we'll see before the end of the year, but if we don't, happy holidays and happy New Year. Aaron so appreciate it. Aaron Kennon, CEO and co founder a Clear Harbor Asset Management, joining us on Zoom from Stanford, Connecticut.
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