Wall Street's Unwinding from Russia

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. One of our favorite people all time is in studio with us um. She's going to tackle some of the most read stories on the Bloomberg. One includes about Wall Streets, Russia pull back

on raveling decades of investment. This is really coming Tim on something we talked about yesterday, UH JPMorgan Chase joining Goldman Sachs Group and pulling back from Russia in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent war UH in that country. We're joined now by Shinnali Basik, Wall Street reporter for Bloomberg News she's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. She's only care mentioned some of the names there, JP Morgan, Chase, Goldman Sacks, if we

talked about yesterday. Of course, give us a lay of the land right now, an overview of who's doing business in Russia and to what extent they're actually pulling out now when it comes to the biggest banks. Yeah, it's very interesting. A little bit of history here is worth getting into a lot of these banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan's only.

JP Morgan really got into Russia in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, and so Goldman and JP Morgan they were huge in terms of not just helping the Russian government, you know, stave off their debt crisis, but also in terms of helping get a very liquid underwriting market for a lot of Russian companies. So fast forward a couple of decades later, they have built fairly robust presences there, but they are much smaller in um

in terms of the whole scope of the operation. So for Goldman Sachs, for example, it's only about any employees. For Morgan Stanley it's you know, a couple dozen, And for JP Morgan, it's a couple of hundred and uh for City Group it's much bigger as about three thousand. But most of these banks, they started really the retreat back in the last time we were talking about sanctions, and now they've been back, they have been pulling back,

and so the exposure is somewhat limited. But with that said, as you see by these big funds, there's still billions of dollars on the line for a lot of big asset managers, which are big clients of the banks. So even with these pull backs, you are seeing banks having to engage in the market making function of what they do and help their clients unwind a lot of these trades.

Are these banks involved with the oligarchs? That is the million dollar questions, Yes, and and and not just you know, the people who are sanctioned themselves and the people who

might potentially be sanctioned moving forward. I mean that is a very big question because it's not just you know, whether they're wealth clients, but you know, are they involved in any of the assets that they own, and you know to what extent or any of these people's buyers on the other side of things, right, So I mean I know, that's a very big issue when it comes to the banks unwinding their derivative trades. For example with VTB.

On the other side, there are certain banks that have asked regulators for an extension so that they could figure out how to unwind those trades. It is very complicated, even the entities that are not sanctioned. Guys, if you look at the way the CDs is trading, there's a high risk of default. And so there's there's two kind of buckets of things here, things that have sanctions already imposed on them, things that might in the future, and things that just come with a lot of reputational risks.

Sounds like an emerging market. No, I'm just thinking about the risk reward, which is why, right we see banks and others go into these areas. And we probably thought because of the walk coming down, you know how many decades ago, that it was more of a sure thing in a closer move towards a market economy, which we have seen. And yet here we are. It's very complicated.

And even today as I sit here with you, you know, I've got to say I've been on the phone with a lot of people in the restructuring world and in the fund management world, saying that, you know, they're wondering who of their peers, they're wondering if they themselves want to buy anything on the cheap right now that's not sanctioned, and so it's a very complicated question. They're really worried about the reputational risk, which obviously there's a lot of.

So a Wall Street pull back from Russia is, you know, not really the whole story. I want to hit on the reputational risk ELEMNTIONALI. You know, you've been on the phone with sources, You've been passing through the very carefully

worded statements that could that come from these banks. Are you getting the impression that they're pulling out for good, that this is indefinite, or that there is an opportunity if tensions ease, to go back in, Because Caroline, I've been talking two weeks, for two weeks about the reputational risk of of of going back to a place where the person in power did something that was so atrocious. You know, this is this is on a scale. I

asked a bank executive the other day. I was like, can you compare this to any time in your history? And there was just a lot of silence on the phone. Uh, you know this is yes because you know is are the nineties with the Russia any um comparison right these in South Africa divestment, which you know has come up a little bit. But this is this is different. I mean, this scale is just so large. And you know the other question, the ripple effect that comes of this is

does this change global geopolitics? Are there other countries they need to read? They will with the sanctions day in place. Yeah, and and that's the thing at the end. On one hand, the very simple answer is if you're sanction nity, the government and multiple governments have said no dice so like it's as simple as that. But on top of that is, you don't if they haven't pulled back already from even

on the unsanctional individuals. They don't want to find themselves on the other end of a fine a few years from now. And that is just the least of their problems, right, And there are costs of going back and forth. Black Rock, Just in context, what do we need to I mean, they have what tent or they did have tenrillly and I think as of the beginning of this year or right, from the beginning. It's funny. Leave it to you, Carrol,

to make sure that we're marking the market. Um so get black Rock with more than ten twillion dollars under management at the beginning, they see her lost seventeen billion. That's only point two per cent of the firm's assets, but seventeen billion in the pure dollar terms is a lot of money. And if you look at the specific funds themselves, yes, the one specifically tied to Russia have stopped trading. The ones that are liquid, they've been halted.

But there's also liquid funds that are still trading that still have exposure to Russia, like a m B there emerging market fund, which you know, it's exposed to tons of different funds around the world, tons of different sovereign debt, and is exposed to Russian sovereign bonds. You follow this sector just got fifteen seconds. I mean, if there's an opportunity of money to be made, would the financial community go back in? Do you think real quickly? It's too

soon to tell. Okay, nicely said, and you've covered a lot. Thank you so much, Shinali Bostic, as I said, one of our faves Wall Street reporter up Bloomberg News here in our interactive broker studio. Check her out at shiny Bosk on Twitter. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Way with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio south By Southwest. It brings together tech, film, music industries gets underway today in Austin, Texas. The more than weeklong event is in person for the first time in three years. This was supposed to be also the first year Ukraine would send an official delegation of startups to the event. That plan no tim of course, disrupted by the war at home. Sarah McBride profiles some of those people who were supposed to be there and

mostly now is still in Ukraine. She's venture capital reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from San Francisco. Sarah, there's no probably no better way to put this than the way that you wrote about it. Really at the beginning of your story. Somebody who was supposed to be in Austin, Texas this week, staying in an Airbnb now finds herself in the middle of the night hearing air raid sirens and waking her two year old up and hiding in a bathroom to try to

stay safe. Yes, that was just the most heart wrenching story. She and her high men, who's also a co founder of the company, left Kia the day before the attack on Ukraine started. They got there two year old, they had to find an apartment. He's asking what's going on. They tell him it's hide and seek and they have to hide in the bathroom and look for dinosaurs there, and all the stories they tell him. It was just the most surreal feeling. Their whole life has been upended.

And I was interviewing her over zoom and she could just see the news room in the background with everybody just going about their business and here she was in the middle of the war. Just was the most wrenching reporting experience. You know, Sarah's something that we grappled with, right, because what we do here at Bloomberg is we report on companies, what they do. We report on the financial

markets and world's events how they impact the markets. And of course we've done that with the Russian invasion of Ukraine the subsequent war. So in reporting out your story, right, we cannot forget the humanitarian impact. But you also wanted to shed some light on what what these entrepreneurs who have created these companies, what they're doing right. And so, for example, that startup founder who rents a company called EFA makes disposable toothbrushes, and they were getting a lot

of traction. They were getting into a bunch of hotels in the US. She told me they were talking to Netflix and she was hoping to use south By Southwest to really build on this momentum. Now, as well as worrying about her family, she and her employees all over Ukraine, it's also her business. She had a shipment of toothbrushes that are now stuck in Romania. A bunch of their disposable razors are in an office building and TV she

has no idea if they're safe or not. And then the other people I spoke to who are trying to juggle dealing with a war and fleeing from their homes and trying to solvage what they can at our businesses and hoping their businesses make it to the other side of this. And uh, they're all at different stages um, all experiencing just crazy range of emotions, UM, and many of them are still in Ukraine. Many of them had

to lead in nearby countries like Poland. So, Sarah, what what is going to be going on at south By Southwest in place of where these Ukrainian entrepreneurs were going to be? They were they were supposed to have a booth their sponsored by the Ukrainian government. How will they be represented? Well? Um? The first notion in the first

word that many of them got from the ministry. They're all on a telegram group chat and they got the Ministry of Digital Transformation in Ukraine was supposed to be through various grants funding parts of their chips, and they got a message saying basically, sorry, we need that money for the war efforts. UM, please return it and glory to Ukraine. So invade uh. I think at that point, Uh, their priorities had already shifted from trying to get to

south By Southwest. But there is one person from the ministry who's still going, and there is another representative of the startup community there. They were just kind of frantically figuring out what to do. They were debating whether to have the founders come in by a zoom link to pitch the latest I've heard if they're looking for volunteers who can pitch on behalf of these startups at south By Southwest. But the booth is still going to be there,

which is impressive. It is incredibly impressive. And so glad you were able to bring this story up to us and remind us of the work that they're doing. And hopefully these individuals um get to put out their companies at a future of it and just hope that they say safe uh, and so do their families. All right, Sarah, thank you so much. Sarah McBride Cheese, VC reporter here

at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well Today's Bloomberg Big Take. It's also among the most read. It's in the new issue also of Bloomberg Business Week magazine, which is now online at business Week, in Bloomberg dot com, also on the Bloomberg terminal and on news stands. It's a story about how Well's Fargo left black homeowners behind in a pandemic mortgage refinancing boom. Tim Sean Donn and

his senior economics writer at Bloomberg News. He's one of the bylines on this exhaustively researched and written uh story in the current issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Sean joins us from our studio in Washington, d C. Sean, I was really shocked to see these numbers, especially, you know, given that this was over the last two years and not something that we think that's you know, more historical. So I'm just gonna go right into it and share

the data nationwide. Only for scent of black homeowners who completed a REFI application with Waltz Fargo were approved. That compares with seventy of white homeowners. This is according to a Bloomberg News analysis of federal mortgage data. Why and how, Yeah, Look, the question why is something we're still trying to get at. Wells Fargo says that it is simply stricter than other lenders, that it treats all lenders the same, but the data clearly shows a big disparity there. I think, you know,

there's the Wells Fargo story. There's also a bigger story here, which is that we've coming to the end of of a huge wealth event really in America, something like five trillion dollars in mortgages have been refinanced in the last two years. When the Fed next week raises interest rates, it will be kind of calling time on that refinancing boom.

And a lot of families around America have been able to take advantage of rising home prices, low interest rates, pull out some equity, maybe finance kids education, and so on. And the reality is black homeowners have had a much harder time, and they had a much harder time than in the rest to the industry when they tried to

refinance with Wells Fargo. In want to bring in Bloomberg Business Week out of Jill Webber with us here in our interactive Broker studio, I feel like I see Wells Fargo Joel that all all of a sudden like jump back, because it does feel like it's been many years of things where whether it's the culture or something, the company is just not getting it right. Yeah, the banks had plenty of issues through the years. UM and you know the one that um that Sean writes about UM in

this story. You know, the thing that really just struck me was was the data. Because when you when you see the data, it just becomes really Stark. Um and you know that the the part of it that I think is um what makes it an interesting Business Week story has been this on going coverage we have about how much wealth is locked up in real estate and when when you have access to that, you can really have intergenerational transfers of wealth and and and rise with that.

And if you're locked out of it, you're just always

in on the sidelines. Um and And Sean I was wondering, um, you know what, you know, being so intimate with his data, um and and sort of the the the element of of wealth that a company's home ownership and and what's the cost of of a fact of the reporting about Wills Pargo And yeah, and look, I mean yeah, I think a lot of time when we talk about wealth in America and the racial wealth gap, we talk about the gap in home ownership between white and black families.

Black families have a much lower home ownership rate than white families. What was really striking to me here is that we are talking about black families that have overcome that gap. We're talking about black middle class homeowners in the suburbs. The characters we were talking to were in the suburbs of Atlanta. These are not UH, poor inner

city black families. These are relatively affluent black middle class families who still have trouble literally leveraging the wealth that they have and taking advantage of this historic event UH in terms of the low interest rates we've seen in

the in the last couple of years. What's also striking to me, and what I couldn't get out of my head when I was looking at this data, is that a lot of what we were looking at in terms of the practices by banks UH and Wells Fargo, took place in twenty and at a time when we were having the supposed racial reckoning over the gaps in the American economy. UH. And here it is. It's it's right there, it's stark, it's um. It's just hard to get your

head past that. And you've you look at this and you think back over the last couple of years, and and it's hard to to come to any other conclusion other than you know, racial wealth and equality in America has widened in the last couple of years. And housing is a big part of that story. And refinancing is a big part of the housing story. Sean, Who's Who's Christie Furchio and what is she doing at Wells Fargo and why is why is she unique in her position? Yeah,

so she's really interesting. She is brought in in the middle of u in the summer of as the head of the mortgage business there, and she's the first black woman, UH to head up that that that mortgage business. She's also the head of the Mortgage Bankers Association in America right now, UM, and she is sitting on some panels that are looking at at credit in America and how credit scores are are are divvied out. And she's interesting.

I mean, she's someone who is quite frank about the problems that that Wells Fargo has had in the past and that the broader industry has in terms of servicing UM black homeowners. And she makes a point that part of this is cultural and part of this is a legacy. And she when we talked to her, sided her own mother who had a thirty year mortgage and never refinanced at once. And this makes Christie's own head spend because

she's a banker and she's all about helping people refinance. Hey, UM sean to be fair Wells versus other big banks. What did we find out. Yeah, so Wells has by far the lowest approval rate or had by far the lowest approval rate in h among big banks. You look at banks like Bank of America. Uh, they were in the sixties in terms of an approval rate. JP Morgan had a higher approval rate than that, and Rocket Mortgage, which was the bigger refinance the biggest refinanced player in

in in twenty twenty, had a rate up around eight plus. Uh. So I think you know the gap in terms of Wells Fargo uh is really it was the only major bank that approved less mortgages than it rejected, and that's for people who completed applications. All Right, there's a lot in this story and I highly recommend that folks check

it out online on the Bloomberger. Also pick up the news stand because um again another revealing story about the inequities when it comes to home ownership, and as Joel mentioned, that has a lot to do with wealth creation when it comes to generational wealth. Our thanks to Sean Donna and senior economics writer at Bloomberg News and to Joel Webber, editor a Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio, we do want to get to our weekly crypto segment because this week present Biden signing an executive order directing government agencies to focus more on the fast growing crypto market, from researching a US digital dollar to combat and illicit finance, the White House saying on Wednesday calling on all agencies across the government to coordinates what's thus far been a kind of scattershot approach to the

asset class. However, I gotta say, Tim, it falls short of providing clear direction when it comes to regulation. Kindness. Speaking of direction, we saw bitcoin surge on Wednesday after this news came out, which was actually before the executive order came out. That's an entirely different story, though, Carol. Thursday, it's selled off a little bit, and today we're actually seeing it lower by just a little bit. To Nel Dixon is CEO and executive director of Stellar Development Foundation.

Uh Dnnell joins us once again from Oakland, California, to now, how are you? I'm wonderful, how are you both doing well? I should note that Stellar Development Foundation, it's a nonprofit, uses blockchain tech to help unlock the world's potential by making money more fluid and opening up markets, uh and more. Let's start with this executive order. What does the White House Executive Order mean for the crypto industry? You know,

it's just such an opportunity for the crypto industry. I think that what it shows is that there's been so much progress that we've made domestically in the US with the administration as well as with policymakers and regulators to make them pay attention to this particular market, in this

industry as a whole. And what I'm hopeful that we can get out of this because it would be amazing for us to have a lot more clarity around the roles of engagement for each of these agencies, so that there's a lot more specificity around what their lanes of operation are. And I think that that's going to just eliminate some of the concern that we see in the ecosystem broadly for blockchain and cryptocurrency about how to operate. You know, sometimes you have to do something to nudge

and get things going. Because I'm wondering about exact get of order which can be overturned. Right, we know how this works versus some kind of congressional or regulatory action. So is it a good, good, kind of you know, administrative step, you know, coming from the U. S. Government to kind of get the ball rolling in a in

a more serious way. Well, the things that I loved about the order, one of them was the fact that it demonstrated and it said very specifically that the United States wants to continue to have leadership on global financial services and specifically on digital assets. That's huge. That's a really important statement to make because that's one of the things that we've been asking over and over to maintain

our leadership here. And so I think that that particular statement carries a lot of weight, and it's going to get these agencies to focus on making sure that they're looking at the activity and understanding what part of the activity they need to consider that they need to regulate around. So I do think it's a really nice first step. I think we're still going to see activity at the policymaker level with respect to particularly I think stable coins

this year. I think that's the low hanging fruit and a really important part of this puzzle that we need to see sort of act all together. But I think that they having an executive order and telling these agencies, hey, this is an important space for us. We can't lose sight of it and we can't fall behind. Is really what I see is an important takeaway to Now, um, what about when it comes to if some of these companies should start to get concerned at all that the

scrutiny is going to be on them. It's It's interesting because on one hand, I think a lot of them are are are going to welcome some sort of clear guidance at least from regulators. But at the same time, are any of the business models at risk? So I don't know whether to think about it from that standpoint. Here's what I'd like to think about it from and this is what I would tell any of these companies out there, and many of them we work with in

the industry. Holistically, one of the things that we did wrong on the content side of the web years and years ago, and privacy sort of came out as being one of those things to think about, is we told regulators and policymakers, we don't need your attention, we don't need your help. We've got this. We know how to do this as an industry. And the truth is that

you can see today. We didn't and we didn't know how to do that necessarily as well as maybe we could have, and so we've learned our lesson there, and so I think now is the opportunity for us to engage with these regulators and these policymakers and these administrative agencies to help them to understand the value and the benefit of what this this technology and all these tools that are being built are providing to the individual consumers

into businesses alike, domestically and globally. So I see this as an opportunity for engagement. And sure there might be scrutiny on certain things, but it's our opportunity to explain what what the what the value is so that you can balance the value with the challenge of understanding these business models. So I ultimately see this as this is our time to sort of demonstrate what we can do for the global financial system, and I think that that's going to be a huge step in favor of blockchain

and cryptocurrency generally. Do now, we you know, constantly talk about financial innovation and platforms that hopefully make things more equal in terms of access. We just did a store about Wells Fargo and mortgages for um, Black Americans and those that you know in terms of where they are in the economic strata, have you know, good incomes success some would say financially, and yet are being turned down

when it comes to, you know, refinancing your mortgage. So I do wonder how realistically will something like crypto be something that moves us in a big way towards more equality financially and just kind about forty twos so left. Yeah, I really do think that this is the opportunity for crypto and blockchain to shine. I think we can shine

domestically and internationally. The notion of not having to have those minimum balance requirements, the notion of not having to have some of the fees that are attached to it, and the requirement that there's just a competitive advantage for figuring out how to do this better, cheaper and faster for all consumers. I always say the financial sector is right now focused on the money, I mean on the few, and we need it to be focused on the money.

And I think that's what blockchain and crypto can do. So I see not just promise but real active use cases that are doing that today. All right, well, cool, So we will obviously reach out to you as things progress and and uh fingers crossed that this uh does play out the way that you just said. Danille Dixon, she is CEO and executive director of Stellar Development Foundation,

interesting organization and nonprofit. They use blockchain to unlock economic potential by making money more fluid, markets more open, and people more empowered. That's their website. I'm reading from it, but that's their mission as well too. Yeah, big coin by the way down one today. Who's around right? Or so I hear? It's certainly does all right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. It's Friday, and Mrs Bloomberg, I'm road Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

who's going home leaves? I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This is good ride to the closed on Bloomberg at Alright, TikTok, everybody, Just about ten minutes left in today's trading session. We are getting ready to wrap up the trading day and the trading week. And we talked about some selling into the closes, Charlie breaking down those numbers, and we are at our loads of the session. Let's talk about the markets. We've got the

drive to the class. Yeah. John Trainer is executive vice president and chief investment officer at People's United Advisors ten billion dollars in assets under management. John, how are you. It's good to have you with us this afternoon. Yeah, thanks for having me back. Yeah, it's good. It's good to have you back with us. UM. Just going through some numbers here on the Bloomberg terminal. The Dow right now headed for its fifth weekly decline in a row,

SP five hundred, down for four of the last five weeks. Uh. What are you hearing from customers right now? Are they concerned or um? Are they kind of just sitting tight? You know, it's interesting. For the longest time, we were surprised that people were not more concerned about what was going on over in Ukraine. It's you know, it's filtering, true, it's it's the beginning and the end of every client conversation we have. But you know, one of the things

that we highlight to them. We were on our investment call this morning. If you look at your Bloomberg and take a look at performance from the twenty three to last night, the SMP is up. The data was up that most of the damage done to the market was because of you know, the FED and inflation and changing introtrate policies that while volatilities picked up, the market has actually handled this pretty well. So we're reinforcing that with clients. The longer it goes on, though, how does that start

to come on done? I mean, John, one of the conversations we've certainly had with individuals. You heard it from the g E CEO who talked with our David Weston this week. You heard it from Christine Leguard of the European Central Bank. UM. You know what's interesting is that the longer this goes on, do we need to start then having a rethink when it comes to the second half of this year, Well, we absolutely do. I mean, you know, it's a probably a foregone conclusion that Europe

is going to roll right over into another recession. UM. We were trying to figure out how much we haircut our GDP forecast for the US, and that's going to roll right into earnings. So you know, we were looking for high single digit earnings at the beginning of the year. You know we're lower than that now. So absolutely it's it's gonna ripple through the US. UM and and primarily hate earnings absolutely, How does it ripple through the US

What does that look like? Is it because of energy costs? Well, you know, again think about the consumer. Um you know, I've taken a look at some numbers, and you know, for every pay that the gas price increases, you know, economists will tell you that that increases like a tax increase of a billion dollars. So you know, years, over and over the course of the year. So we've had we've already had, you know, well over a one billion dollar tax incre that's going to slow the economy. And

then when you take a look at the consumer. You know, we've been breathing about how the consumer balance sheets are in great shape. But boy, when you see oil prices move up, gasoline prices move up, that's going to have an increase of It's going to increase pain and the consumer balance sheet is going to impact psychology. So you know, the consumer has been driving this recovery through goods purchases,

and we were hoping for increased services expenditures. We think it will be the consumer that is going to slow things down. So we we haven't figured out how much we haircut US GDP, but you know, we we we're gonna be hopefully we'll we'll still be about three percent of this year um recession. You know, it's one thing, even if it's a mild one, if it's touch and go. Uh when we when people see that, it makes everybody

a little bit nervous. Yep, yep. And And you know, I've been doing this now for a little over forty years, and my best indicator for a recession has been the yield curve. That tend to yield curve. And we're in we're in red territory right now. Absolutely, you know, it's you know, that's been my best indicator. Twelve to eight months later, you've got a recession. So as the Fed starts raising rates, you know they'll raise them on the short end. I can't imagine that the tenure is going

to be moving up that dramatically. So I can tell you the headlines, uh, you know, fairly soon late spring are probably going to be see what happens if the yield curve and verts here. I know Chairman Powell has talked about it, and he you know, he's not putting a lot of faith in it. But I think market participants will put a lot of faith in that as a pretty good indicator, so you know, the fear of

a recession will be growing as we moved through the year. Absolutely. Yeah, it's interesting since you kicked off the conversation and talked about what the markets have done since um Russia launched that uh invasion of Ukraine. That was on February. So I looked at the markets as of the two clothes, and the Dado was just off about half a percent, The S and P is off about point four NASDAC is down about one point four percent, and the Russell is actually up on this one point percent. The Russell

has been pretty beaten up. But your point is, and we talked about this, we could get to the end of the year and the markets might be little changed, but man, the trip to get there is a rough one, right because of the volatility and the huge wings. Absolutely, and look at what's happened to the European markets. He has gotten crushed, the EFA, the emerging markets, and I don't care whether you're in growth or value in Europe,

the European markets are really sold off. You know, one of the things we want to look at as it as an investor is you know, when you go through something like this, what goes down the least because that tends to lead when you come out of this. So we are, you know, slightly overweight the US. We were debating do we go to Neutroller? Do we overweight Europe? Just a few months ago. We're sticking with the U. S overweight. We think the US is the place to

be just based upon what's happened since the invasion. Yeah, msci Emorgin Markets index is downe about ten percent since the war started. So if you do the comparison, and this is right right, you know, John, when we talk about things, it's got to be everything relative to one another, um and investors will be looking at where where do I feel the most confident about placing and making those bets to him? John? How long do you John? How

long do you see this this playing out here? I mean, and you know, just in the last thirty seconds we have with you. Uh, is there any chance of recession in the US is on the horizon if we don't see oil prices come down? Well, there are two things you need to look at. Number One, let's pray that the hostilities end fairly soon. I mean, I'm you know, I'm no foreign policy expert. But I think that will

that will hopefully take place. But the resilience of the Ukrainian people certainly look like they're not going to roll over that, you know. I don't know. I love to read the foreign policy experts, and they're talking about this becoming Vladimir Putin's Afghanistan. So there'll be two stages. Hopefully we'll we'll see an end of the hostilities, right, but this will be a headline for quite a while to come, quite a while. All Right, We've got to run here, John,

have a good and safe weekend. We appreciate it. John Trainor, his executive vice president and chief investment officer at People's United Advisors, but ten billion in assets under management on the phone from Connecticut. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News