Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
I've been driving on.
That man's went on, take a drive, put drive, Yeah, I drive.
Can you just focus on driving, focus on the roads.
Driving, because I'm asking you to.
Just taking.
Just drive baby, Let's see.
This is the drive to the clothes. No, we don't need road on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, everybody, just by eighteen nineteen minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Tuesday, November eleventh, Carol master Timstanovic live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. I mean, you look at the charts and we're definitely well off our worst levels of this session. But just up a hair, Tim, on the S and P five hundred.
We just heard from.
Bill and Alexis, and you still have the Nasdaq one hundred slightly lower, but again it's.
Much more upbeat than where it was earlier in the session.
I want to see what Eddie Gebora has to say about this. He's the co founder and CEO of Key Advisor's Wealth Management. The firm is more than nine hundred million dollars in assets under management. Eddie joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio.
It's good to see you. Thank you for having me. Welcome back.
So the macro outlook here, Carol and I've been talking a lot about whether or not the government shutdown actually matters to equity investors. Jan van k right before the government shutdown, was on our program and he said, it doesn't matter. It doesn't affect the federal reserve and doesn't affect earnings.
Do you agree?
I do. As a matter of fact, I think this shutdown is a real bullish catalyst because I think the probability of a rate cut in December has gone up tremendously now because to be prior to the government shutdown, there was taught that the bond market wasn't really pricing in a December rate cut, and now the rate cut is about sixty percent because it is going to be a drag on economic data when it comes out, and so I think the FED is going to kind of err on the side of caution and go ahead and
cut rates just because of the fears of a slowdown getting worse going into twenty twenty six. They don't want that on their watch. So I don't think it a big impact in regards to stocks. But what it does indirectly is increase that probability of the Santa Claus rally because the one thing I think that could end that would be if the FED does not cut in December.
Having said that, you know, Churchery Secretary Scott Bessett has been out and about and he has said that he's going to be out and about over the next few weeks as he talks about the big, beautiful tax bill that was passed by Congress.
What I'm curious about, Eddie is he kind of reed.
When it comes to inflation concerns, and he talked about better times in twenty twenty six, So why would we need.
A rate cut?
So I think the rate cut is because we have this dynamical.
Especially there's inflationary concerns and still pressures because they're going to pick the labor market and the economics slow down over where we are right now for an inflationary procedure the FED.
That's correct the Fed, because inflation. I think the new normal has to be three percent. If the FED tries to get us down to two percent, it's going to be too late. We're not going to get there.
But the isn't conceeded on that yet.
They have not. However, I think last time when FED Chairman spoke, he talked about it being transitory, the tariff concerns in regards to inflation, and I think the new normal, they're going to be forced to pivot. I believe next year they will pivot and go away from that two percent number because at the end of the day, as long as we continue to grow economically, you focus more on growth, the inflation is not going to have a
big of an impact. But if you just focus on inflation and cause growth to go down, you're going to have a double whamie where inflation is going to stay sticky and then potentially take us into a session.
So you think under Fed shir J. Powell, the FED will abandoned the two percent goal.
I do. I think that'll happen next year. Wow, Okay, they're going to be forced to because we're not going to get the two percent inflation. And if they stay tight with monetary policy, right this case shape the economy we have. They're killing small businesses and the bottom of the k the lower earners in this country are the ones that are getting hurt by this tighter monetarition.
Well, is the FED killing the lower wrong?
Or you know, as we had a great conversation with Henrietta Tre's Veda Partners yesterday and getting to this point that you have records on Wall Street, yet you have you know, one in eight Americans on food stamps. That is not a Republican or Democratic policy that is cumulative over the years. So her point was that there are a lot of companies out there, and she named names
that aren't really paying workers a living wage. So, you know, to put the blame on the FED doesn't seem to make sense to me.
Well in regards to the FED, when I look at it from an entrepreneurial perspective, these small businesses, they don't go out and issue bonds to raise capital like the large companies have the luxury of doing. They have to go to their local bank to raise capital to get monetary to get money from those for loans, and when you talk to them, the increase in interest rates have really hurt them. So they don't have the capital that
the other companies do. So when we talk about the FED keeping monetary policy tight and hurting the smaller businesses, that's what we're talking about. Are they solely the blame, of course not. I'm not putting all the blame on the FED, but that's a big component is being able to get capital.
But the FED still will have a duel mandates stable prices and maximum employment. So from the stable price's perspective, what is the new two percent?
So I think where we are right now two and a half to three percent on core, I think they can live with that at the because they've already been cutting rates when we are not down the two percent. They did a fifty basis point rate cut last year. They're doing rate cuts again now. So you can make the argument that they've already a ban in that, because why would they be cutting rates if they're not abandoning the two percent mandate?
I don't know.
To be preemptive, I think what there is.
I mean some might say maybe they're concerned about the labor market.
That's it. And this is why I say they're in a really tough spot because now they have to pick. Are they going to pick inflation?
They flowing growth that they were concerned about, so doing something to kind of juice it a little bit.
So that's why I think there they don't want to be abandoned the two percent, but they're going to be forced to because I think they're going to pick the labor market, and I think that's wise. I'd rather than pick the labor market and try to help it from slowing to a point where we go into a recession, so that way we can grow economically and hopefully continue to prosper here.
But how do you grow when you have you know, I'm kind of obsessed with this story, and we're going to talk about it a little bit later on. But Walgreen's no longer giving many of its retail workers paid vacation time for Thanksgiving, Christmas, another major holidays company looking to cut costs under their new owners. Like it does seem like there is still a squeeze.
On workers and wages.
The unfortunate reality is, and this is a problem in this country. We recognize as we talk about it all the time, when it goes back to the K shaped economy that the wealthy, the top fifty percent in this country are continuing to do really well, and they're going to do well whether the Fed cuts or doesn't cut. So I think the focus on the FED and companies and businesses is the bottom part of the K. We're going to be prosper more if the entire economy is doing well.
But doesn't policy have a responsibility too in terms of helping out the economy. We talk about the Treasury Secretary kind of on a tour to talk about the big beautiful bill. I mean, what is there for you know, Americans at large. I think this stem business or you know, there's lots of tax breaks, but it seems like for bigger corporations.
So I think this stems from years in the making of the mouse and massive debt that our country has put ourselves into. That's ultimately what causes inflation, is you.
Overstepending bill creates more debt too, right, it does.
I mean every administration one ups the other. I mean the amount we have thirty plus trillion dollars of debt that did not happen overnight and so we have had a real fiscal problem and that's ultimately what's going to break the back of this market is the bond market at some point in time is going to say, you know what, I don't care what you do monetarily wise, the ten year is going to go through five percent.
So what does that break in the market look like? So what does it mean for equities? And just got about thirty thirty five seconds here.
This is an amazing bull run far, it's far from over. But when it does pop, this is a bubble. It's going to be ugly, and you need to be able to sell and pivot. We are not in a buy and hold strategy, and I don't think individual investors should. Large institutions are tactical. Every family, hard work and American family should have a tactical strategy as a way to protect against when this bubble does pop.
And the bubble is going to pop because of debt, or because of the AI spend or all of it.
It's going to be all of it, all of It's going to be a combination of it all and then the bond market will speak very loudly.
So then administrative stration policies are our supportive or no, I.
Think they're supportive of economic growth going into twenty twenty six. You know they are. That is our opinion. And look as a business owner myself, we pay our teams very well.
Okay, well, that's good to know.
Eddie Gebor, co founder and cefkey Advisor's Wealth Management.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
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As the US Treasury Secretary looks to highlight the administration policy, whether it's inflation or other aspects of their policies, we continue to live in a world that really lacks US government data. We did get one piece of private data today. ADP research suggested that the labor market slowed in the second half of last month. Traders, now we know, have relied on private data as the government closure tip has delayed the release of official statistics.
Meantime, the government now and it's well known to the Bloomberg audience, who is with us right now Neil data partner and head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. He joins us from New Jersey. Neil, good to have you back on the program. I want to start exactly there, and with regard to the shutdown, where we are longest shutdown on record, but also the lack of data, the picture that we're kind of piecing together from various disparate
parts show that a labor market is weakening. In your view, how weak is it?
You know?
I tend to concern myself more with the direction as opposed to the magnitude, to be honest, but I think I think we're probably at the Fed's estimate for the unemployment rate for year end already, so a couple of months ahead of schedule. So that's not necessarily a good thing. So my sense is that the speed of the weakness has, you know, maybe picked up a little bit. But I think we're probably at four and a half percent already on the unemployment rate.
Okay, if it were to.
Come out, and you know, I think you know what people need to kind of answer is why do you think that stops? And what gets it to stop? Because I think when you look at it bottoms up like which you know, if you kind of go industry by industry, it's really hard to see where the growth and employment is coming from at the moment.
Well, and on that, you know, I'm thinking about, Neil. Great to be talking with you again, the dual mandate, right, and so I'm just wondering if we continue to see weakness, you know, in the labor market. And then we just talked about Treasury Secretary Scott Best and kind of deflecting when it came to inflation, I sees out and about talking about the administration's policies. I mean, we've heard from Fetcher J. Powell about the struggles on both of those mandates.
Do you think it's going to be a bit of a squeeze for the Fed, for the US economy, for all of us in terms of weaker labor market staying that way an inflationary is kind of staying that way.
Well, I don't. I mean, my own view of it is that I don't view the trade offs as nearly as onerous as as the FED does. I mean, I think there's more downside risk to the labor market than there is upside risk to inflation. You know, at the end of the day. Inflation is three percent this year, it was three percent last year. The difference between this year and last year is tariffs. So that would tell
me what that underlying inflation is probably slowing. And you know the fact that it's really hard to make a case for why tariffs are anything more than a one off lends support to the idea of the FET should continue to cut interest rates here in terms of and remember, you know, to me, the big story is that employment tends to evolve potentially in nonlinear ways. It kind of you know, once it gets once like an increase in
the unemployment rate really gets going to keep ongoing. And that's why you have this sort of you know, it's episodic, right, I mean you see big spikes in the uneployment rate at times, right, Yeah, that's not really the case with inflation. And so in other words, inflation tends to move in a more linear way, and you know, particularly outside of commodities and unemployment, that's not necessarily the case. It tends
to be more nonlinear in fashion. And I think that's what you know, frankly, the FED and you know, the the markets might be missing is the sort of downside kind of growth tail risks associated with with the labor markets.
What if the Supreme Court comes back and says the tariffs are not legal as they're implemented, Does that change your view?
No? I mean I think if you if you think that the Supreme Court is going to be the institution in Washington, d c. With the last word on tariffs, I think you're I mean, I'd like to have some of what you're smoking.
Well, is that is that because you think there are other There are other avenues for the Trump administration department.
Absolutely, the Congress. I mean, this is really about Congress, and Congress is frankly a lazy bunch, okay, And they've delegated a lot of their tariff authority to the White House. And there's a vast legal architecture from which the president can draw from to prosecute a trade war. And you know, I think immediately he could probably do a temporary fifteen percent baseline tariff, and he can do that for six months, and that will, you know, sort of act as a bridge,
you know, to get towards national security tariffs. So I don't think we're out of the woods on tariffs because the Skotis rules it one way or the other. I mean, it's yeah, I think that's that's sort of wishful thinking in my opinion.
Hey, couple of stories I just want to bring in.
One was from last week Neil, and it was about US consumer sentiment telling to near the lowest on record, and part of it was the government shut down weighing on the economic outlook, but also high prices sering views about personal finances. There were also concerns about the labor market continuing to weaken in the future.
We got that from that report.
And then we just had a story that our Alexis Christophers mentioned about Walgreens no longer giving many of its retail workers paid vacation time for Thanksgiving, Christmas another major holiday holiday. Is the company looking to cut costs under
new owners. Like, I just keep thinking about this K shaped economy and there's just so many people, and I think about the snap benefits, how many people are on food stamps and getting assistants, Like this economy doesn't feel great, and yet we have records on Wall Street and we have earnings that seem to be okay, and the AI spend is out there still in a big way.
Even if there's been some questions over the last week or so.
So I don't know, from an economic perspective, are we in a good economy or no.
I mean I think we're in a very in a deeply imbalanced economy, Carol. And it's been that way for a while. Yeah, you know, I've and I recently wrote a piece for your colleague Joe Wisenthal on odd Lots, you know, just sort of characterizing the The economy is really three different things, right. It's you have the housing market, which I think is in recession, and you have the consumer, which is kind of, let's say, in the mid middle, and then you have AI, which is you know, booming.
And when I go to client meetings and I give my sort of outlook on the economy, you know, the pushback that I get is kind of what you were describing, right, it's you know, AI, it's stocks, it's you know, the high end consumer. And people talk about that frankly, as if those are three separate things, but they're really deriudive of the same thing. And I think that's something to keep in mind here. The other thing I would say is that, you know, we talk a lot about the
resilient consumer. We hear a lot about you know, never bet again the US consumer. The truth is, the consumer never actually gives you a signal ahead of an economic slump.
Right.
If you go back historically, consumer spending has never ever declined in the quarters leading up to broader economic downturn.
Interest.
Sometimes in an economic downturn, consumer spending actually expands, right, Like, go back to two thousand and one, right, Like, So that's not unusual either. So if you're waiting on the consumer to give you a tell, you've probably waited too long, right, I mean, consumption has a way of amplifying downturns. But I would just say, you know, what's been interesting to me is just how quick Yeah, Like the labor markets
have evolved the way you've expected. Right, It's come for the young people first, and I think it's going to come for the affluent next.
Interesting stuff out, Well, this is something we talked about the three a's in that Trump economy story. Neil Data good to connect again, Come back soon, partner and head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research with.
Us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
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Well, a record setting forty two day US government shutdown onopath to end as soon as today.
We're thinking about that.
But what's really on our minds is the functionality of US political parties, in particular, what is happening with Democrats, who some or many have said struggle with a single message, especially after some of those monitorates broke away.
Yeah, it's like got some folks scratching their heads. This is after they broke away.
They dropped their demand to renew expiring Affordable Care Acts subsidies ACA, and instead security Republican promise to vote on extending Obamacare insurance premium credits by mid December.
Josh Green is Bloomberg Business Week national correspondent. He's the author of several books, including the number one New York Times bestseller Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and The Storming of the Presidency. He joins us from our Washington DC Bureau. Democrats Josh crossing the aisle to end the shutdown? Was it a quote terrible mistake, a Senator Elizabeth Warren told reporters. Governor Gavin Newsom called it, quote pathetic or is this smart ahead of the min terms? This is
kind of a narrative that's emerging now. Republicans will own the ACEE, A premiums going up that'll affect a lot of their constituents.
What's the chatter?
Well, I think the overwhelming sentiment of the Democrat grass roots is anger and confusion that Democrats who've just come off the sweeping election victory, who polls showed were not being blamed for a shutdown that they in fact had caused, why they would suddenly decide to throw in the towel
without really much much warning. I think is upset an awful lot of people, mostly at the grassroots level, but also from a lot of the politicians, especially ones like Gavin Newsom who maybe have their eye on the White House and are especially attuned to grassroots sentiment. But I think that there's another kind of quieter realist wing of the party that looked in the mirror and said, look, there's really no clear winning exit strategy.
We've got to pull the plug at some time, so let's do it.
Now before things get really bad for federal workers, before the entire US airline industry grinds to a halt, maybe on Thanksgiving weekend and just turn around and decided to kind of rip off the band aid. Now that's caused a lot of anger, but it's not necessarily clear that long term that this is going to.
Be the wrong move.
What's that like thinking or strategizing about, like, Okay, what party gets blamed? And you know, I was thinking about this when I was on a TSA line the government shutdown, and I look up at those screen screens, and who do I see Christy Nome, you know, playing over and over on a loop, And I just wonder the general public, like who do they blame? And so it was there a feeling that it was the Republican shutdown?
Was it both the parties? How was it playing out?
I mean, it's interesting dynamic over the last like three or four government shutdowns happened in pretty short order. Is that services start shutting down, national parks start shutting down, you have a problem with airlines. Everybody says, well, gee, who's to blame? And it's pretty clear whichever party shut down the government gets blamed by the other party. Because everybody in that party is on the same page, they
can kind of point to the same bad guy. I think the tricky thing this time around was that President Trump didn't really seem to be all that interested in the shutdown for like the.
First two or three weeks.
He was much more interested in knocking down the east wind in the White House, building up his new ballroom, and so you had this kind of mixed message from Republicans where some Republicans in Congress were trying to run the ordinary playbook of blaming Democrats, but Trump wasn't really on that page, wasn't really doing that, and it's a much more interesting exciting story to write about this grand new ballroom that's apparently going up in the White House,
and so nobody really focused on who was to blame, and when things starting going wrong, they just kind of naturally blamed the president and the party that controls Congress.
You know, Josh, I do wonder like did things like you know, tearing down the ballroom, showing off a new marble bathroom at the White House that the President has, having a great Gatsby party for Halloween exactly.
That was really over the top.
If you saw some of the images, and I don't want to be political, but I do wonder this is a president who said, like, I am here for you, and I'm going to take actions that are here for more Americans.
That's you know.
At the same time, we're talking about one in eight who aren't going to get food stamps because of the government shutdown. So I'm just curious how that plays politically. Was that getting noticed that kind of gag, It definitely was.
I think it does two things. I mean, going back to sort of that, you know, how a party deals with a shutdown. If all Republicans had been unified from day one, including President Trump saying, look, the Democrats did this, it's their fault, blame them, I think things would have ended much earlier. But like as we said, that didn't happen.
Trump was more concerned with other things, and when he did begin to get upset about the shutdown, instead of blaming Democrats, he started getting angry at Republicans and told them they ought to eliminate the filibuster, which would be another way to open the government. But it's not something that Republicans wanted to do. And so as this fight was going on, you do see these images on TV on social media of the redecorations in the White House,
of these glitzy parties at mar A Lago. Meanwhile, you know, food stamps are being frozen. The White House is out saying no, we don't want to pay these during the government shutdown. Democrats and states are having to take them to court. So it really did create a political problem that polls show pretty clearly was hurting President Trump's approval
rating and hurting Republicans in Congress. And that's one reason why Democratic kind of grassroots and a lot of lawmakers were so upset that moderates in their caucus decided to pull the plug and in the shutdown early because they didn't think that it was hurting Democrats.
They thought it was hurting their opponents.
I think it was Mike Allen and Axios over the weekend who wrote a commentary about how it could be a challenge for the Trump administration to present themselves as fighting for the little guy or fighting for the middle class or the working class if they're not focused on the ACA subsidies or on funding SNAP during this time. I wonder if that message will resonate with voters going into the midterms in twenty six.
Yeah, I think that's a really smart point. I think it might resonate even sooner. I did a Business Week newsletter yesterday just kind of my gloss on the shutdown and what was and what it was not accomplished. And I do think that one of the things that Democrats accomplished, even though so many of them are unhappy about the way things ended, They've added salients to this issue of
rising Obamacare premiums. Originally, Democrats said were only going to reopen the government if Trump and Republicans agree to fund these provisions, it will help extend subsidies, keep insurance affordable. Republicans don't want to do that. They didn't do that, so even though Republicans are Democrats weren't able to win that is a concession to reopen the government. It's been on the front pages of newspapers. It's been in the news.
I think the American public is very aware that these premiums are about to rise, and I think partly because of the spotlight that the shutdown shown on this issue.
If in when those premiums do rise, the American people are largely going to bring Trump and Republicans and Essentially, it's going to be up to them to kind of find the solution, which isn't exactly how Democrats wanted things to end, but it could turn out to be that public pressure in the event of these rising premiums actually does produce some.
Sort of solution that Democrats could get behind.
So, you know, Josh, when the Republicans and the Democrats that went over to the other side are basically, you know, broke away and got this Republican promise to vote on extending Obamacare insurance premium credits by mid December, So politically it will happen or could Republicans back out? Just got about forty seconds here.
I think it's very unlikely to happen. I mean, Republicans have been adamant that they're not going to vote to support these things. So you can have a vote, The vote will lose, and that will probably be the end of it, at least in the short term. If the vote were to win in the Senate, it would go to the House houses controlled by Republicans, and they've said
they might not even take it up. But eventually, if interns premiums do go up and just ordinary people begin to react badly, to that, including Republican districts that could put pressure on Republicans and Trump to finally have to do something about it.
And there's a record right of people of how they voted.
Absolutely yeah.
And ultimately, look, Republicans control Congress, they control the White House.
The buck stops with them.
If there needs to be a solution, they're ultimately going to have to come through and deliver one.
All right, great stuff as always, Josh, Thank you so much. Josh Green.
He is Bloomberg BusinessWeek National correspondent. Be sure to check out all of his writings. They are on the Bloomberg terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com.
Really appreciate it. Order his books too, his book listen.
He's the guy you want to talk to, like understood how President Trump got to the White House the first time around, and just continuing to report it all out.
Josh Green out of Washington, DC. Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during the Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube jay.
On Stock and Company that we wanted to highlight it is the number one gator in the S and P five hundred. Today it's up about nine percent. We're talking about paramount Skydance shares rallying. In fact, they've been up more than twelve percent at their intra day high today after the newly merged company raised its target for job cuts and cost saving measures. As you know, the media and entertainment company has also been trying to buy rival
Warner Brothers Discovery. It also said in a letter to shareholders we talked about this a little bit, that it plans an additional sixteen hundred person workforce reduction and did lay out a specific goal to achieve at least three billion dollars ten in cost saving.
Results the company and its place in the world of media and its future too. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior media analyst Githa Ranganathen joins us. She's at Bloomberg Intelligence headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey. Getha is today's move before we get to the big pictures, Today's move all the result of that least at least three billion dollars in cost savings is that why investors are happy today.
Yeah, absolutely, Tim.
So you know, the three billion cost savings target, which was upward guidance, a revision from the two billion, basically caused them to lift their even target for twenty twenty six. I mean when I say lift, it's much higher than what consensus was expecting. So consensus was expecting around three point one billion for twenty twenty six. They came in a three point five billion, So I think that really gave investors some cost to cheer and that's that's driving the stock up wards today.
Well, we should just remind everyone. Carol always points this out that you know that includes an additional sixteen hundred person work force reduction, So I would imagine there are people within the organization that are worried about not having a job in the near future. Do we know at all where these layoffs will hit.
So these layoffs, actually the sixteen hundred are going to be a part of their Latin American operation, so they're going to do some of the divestitures of their Latin assets in Chile in Argentina, and a lot of those job cuts are actually associated with that.
All right, So you know what I keep thinking is this the media company to watch right now.
It definitely is Carol.
So, you know a lot of what David Ellison and his team laid out yesterday. I mean, they came across as a really strong team with a very you know, they have a game plan, they know what they're doing. But at the end of the day, and if you just look at the playbook, right you guys mentioned the cost synergies, which are a big part of you know, the forward plan. But if you just kind of think back a few years, this is so reminiscent exactly what Warner Brothers Discovery did.
This was their playbook.
They came in with, you know, the merger of Warner Brothers and Discovery. They kind of kept raising their synergy targets. But at the end, what happened was everything fell apart because they couldn't really kind of get to the initial ebidat target that they had laid out up until this year of course, when they've you know, kind of came out with their whole plan to separate the company. So
one doesn't really know what's going to happen with Paramount Skuydew. So, yes, things looked pretty promising as laid out by the management team yesterday. They obviously are not afraid to make big, bold bets when it comes to content. We saw them They're ready to spend about eight billion dollars on UFC content. They obviously are more than willing to go after Warner Brothers Discovery. But at the end of the day, it's going to come down to, you know, execution. Are they
going to actually be able to execute? And even if they do execute, is it going to be enough? You know, those are really the questions because I'm not sure. Yes, they might be able to drive up their streaming subscriber base a little bit. They have about eighty million right now, but then when you're competing with Netflix, which has well over three hundred and ten million, again, what do you do? You need something transformative? So you do need that Horner Brothers Discovery acquisition.
Well, I do think about kind of where media companies are going Gita. You know, who would have thought at one point that the major networks would ever be challenged? Who would ever thought, you know, ESPN went through its own like we've seen things that were juggernauts or given that, it's just not the way it is anymore.
You know, so many of us are watching YouTube.
Television or watching us things on our phone, or you know, we don't care what time things are on anymore. Like it's just been turned upside down. Look at the news business, how much that has changed. And I do think about, you know, what is the media company of the future.
The media company of the future is one that can be agile, that can be nimble, you know, and that's exactly what Netflix has been able to do in terms of, you know, making They did make the content investments when they need to, when they needed to make it, but then they were able to pair back when they realized that, you know, that couldn't go on forever and when they
were burning through through free cat right. The content company, or rather the media company of the future is one that can you know, adapt of the you know, we have to make investments in AI. We're seeing that AI is going to really kind of change the game when it comes to recommendations, when it comes to kind of tweaking algorithms, and even when it comes to cutting down on content costs. We're already seeing this play across the board, you know, in terms of post production cost it can
kind of lead to a significant reduction. We're thinking at least baseline ten percent, and so a company that's able to achieve that and is ready for that is going to you know, really position itself for the future pretty well.
Back to the idea of what assets the company might need to add in the near future. David Allison on the call GEITHA said he couldn't comment on speculation around deal making, but said, there are no.
Must haves for us. Do you agree with that?
I see just not trying to show his hand.
Like, are there some assets or must have for this company?
I think so, Tim.
I mean again, they did, you know, full credit to the to the management team. They do seem to have a good strategy. They seem to be very bold and ambitious. There's absolutely no doubt about it. They are not going to just be okay with the status quo. That is absolutely clear. But you know, in their current configuration, I just don't think it's going to cut it when they have to compete with the likes of a Netflix or an Amazon or at Disney.
They do need a better studio.
Yes, they're you know, they're committing to basically doubling their theatrical output. But if you just kind of look at the you know, the performance of the studio over the past so many years it has clearly been such a laggard. So, you know, getting some of those Warner brother titles I think is transformative. They do need something for their streaming assets as well. Again, they're they're doing a lot of you know, things that they can you know, again in
the in the current format. But again they need a lot more content. You know, the UFC is good, the NFL they have, but I don't think, you know, that's good for some amount of customer acquisition.
I just don't think it's in.
Now, hey swallowing Warner Brothers if indeed Warner Brothers Discovery, if indeed that gets done, I mean I think we all keep being like, well, wait, Paramitt scat Sky Answers is about an eighteen point three billion dollar market cap, Warner Brothers is about almost fifty seven billion. I mean, it's going to be a lot of debt, right, we see that typically in media companies.
Is it manageable?
I think it is manageable.
I mean we have to remember here that you know, this is a little bit of an unusual situation. This is David Ellison. You know, his father is one of the richest people in the world, so I think financing might not necessarily I mean, yes, we've heard all these different reports of you know, the Paramount team kind of
looking for private equity partners. We really don't know exactly how the financing structure is going to be, but I think, you know, in the grand scheme of things, and we've seen this even with the with the Warner Brothers Discovery you know management team that yes, they do have to take on a lot of debt, but I think I think in the end it will be it will be manageable because they still will have a good amount of free cash flow.
All Right, We're gonna leave on that note. Hey, Githa, thank you so much. Giza and ganath On.
She's senior media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us from BI headquarters out there in Princeton, New Jersey. As we mentioned, Paramount Skydance continuing to be the top gainer in the S and P five hundred tim that's stock up about eight point seven percent.
And one point it was up twelve and a half percent, so off its best loves of the day, but still enough to the upside to be that best performer in the s and P.
I love it though. It's just kind of interesting. We'll see where it goes next. A.
Right, are you watching anything on Paramount Plus because those price increases are going to come.
I don't know. It's all a mush to me. Just go to the menu, I click.
It's not what they that's not what they want to hear, but that is the reality for so many people.
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