This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing you the latest news from the world of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week at iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.
You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, a little bit earlier in our program, we spoke to Bloomberg news is Hannah Levitt and she talked about how Wall Street bonuses are poised to plunge following a slowdown of deals. We're also seeing a slowdown of deals when it comes to I P O s and when it comes to other M
and A happening. We thought it would be great to check in with Amy Noyakis, who's the co founder and co c i O at the venture capital firm Anthemus. We've talked to her before about venture capital, of course, and also about supporting women in venture capital. Amy, it's good to have you with us. How are you. I'm good, I'm good. I'm tired. It's been a very crazy busy summer. Well what do you mean by that? How crazy busy in what sense? Well, you know, I think it's been
an interesting time for venture capital. Um. You know, we've heard a lot about this sort of idea that might be a silent crash happening in DC, or that we're at the beginning of the end of VC as the market to dry it up. But you know, I'm telling you from my perspective, I'm not seeing it. Um. I mean, the current market environment has really put capital location decisions to the test, and I think people have made some
big mistakes in the last couple of years. But the industry wide correction that we're seeing this year isn't a surprise to any of us who have been doing this for decades, nor is it affecting all companies are all investors in the same way. I think it's just simply
a needed corrections. Right. For the last ten plush years, we've seen unprecedented amounts of capital shifting into venture capital, particularly in the tech sector, inspiring entrepreneurs and would be founders to build new digital companies that are challenging the old guard and most importantly, or makes a lot of sense. But the majority of these cases, the markets and the employees and the consumers these companies have reached a ton
of benefits through this evolution. However, there are lots of founders and investors alike who have attempted to build companies that aren't solving real problems. They're not focusing on business fundamentals,
and they're letting hubrists get the best of them. Right. So, while the global funding has slowed, there are still plenty of great companies growing, expanding and building, And there are still plenty of companies out there, and so I'm kind of feeling like, you know, the bigger issue is how many of these people that have kind of jumped into the game in the last sort of inning, so to speak, are really throwing things off right, Like, VC is hard and it's supposed to be. It's why the returns are
so high. There's huge upside for investors that are finding and back in great companies. But the problem is, I think over the last couple of years, it's looked too easy and that's attracted a lot of folks frankly don't belong in the game. And now that it's gotten a little harder again, you've got to look a little harder for the good ideas. You've got to be smarter about the way you value these companies. It's the dumb money that's disappeared, and it's taken a lot of promising companies
with it. And tell us give us some good ideas. Where are there still opportunities? Well, I listen on the investor side, I think there's a ton of opportunity in the early stage. Um, it's still very much a sweet spot. A lot of the market contraction that we've seen has been in the later stage. I'm personally biased because we're at antmestic fans of the of the early stage strategy. But I think that if you're a quality early stage investor and you're in it for the long haul, you'll
navigate this correction incredibly well. Valuations are getting haircuts if they deserve. Deal flow in competition for capital is sort of flowing a bit, and investors at the early stage I think are well positioned. You know, you've got to focus on the fundamentals. You've got to stay from the away from the fluff Hubrist. A great company is a
great company, and there's always space for great companies. Um. I'd say for the companies and the founders, they should probably take the advice that they should have heated years ago. Not all capitals the same. Pay attention to who's backing your company, and don't get swindled by a heavy valuation that you know you can't back up. I mean, we've seen so many examples of that. I don't want to say they were, you know, swindled, but we've seen a
lot of down rounds, uh in the past few months. Amy, Yeah, and listen, that's that's not surprising, right. I Mean, the role on the purpose of a good venture capital capital investor hasn't changed. It is our job and should be our jard to deploy capital responsibly and help grow portfolio companies. That doesn't mean that there's a one size fits all
approach to how we do that. And I think the biggest issue for me is that so many of these players have jumped in eyes closed with little to no experience and how to build and support a quality company as it grows. And these are the folks that have
caused a lot of the pain in the market. Um. You know, I think some of the strategy is driven by hubris, and I don't think it's appropriate to write the entire sector off just because a large number of folks decided to jump into the defense naked before checking if there was water in the pool, right right, Hey, uh, we just have a minute left with you, Amy, but I want to get an update on the female Innovator's
Lab that you recently launched. And because when we talk about venture capital, especially them in venture capital, we're talking like single digit percentage of venture capital goes to Winden each year. Yeah, it's still I'm you know, it's still an area that we spent a lot of our time on an anthemous and I think a big part of that is because it was how we were founded. Right.
You know, I'm a woman founder of a company, and not only am I investor, but I'm somebody who started a company from scratch and watched how hard it was and difficult it was to raise capital to grow my company, and there weren't a lot of supporters around. Um So when we looked across the entirety of the fintech sector, we wanted to make sure, um that we were playing a very solid roll in in sort of putting our
money where our mouth is. And and so we've been backing women founders in Europe in the US for a couple of years now specifically and what we call the earliest venture studio stage, money and ideas coming together at the very beginning and helping these women build their company.
And I think it's a really great opportunity not only to see some fantastic businesses and help women, you know, get a leg up and grow, and also you know, as as we've sort of found it's making a huge difference, you know, I mean, I know that people say all the time that it's really hard to back women and people of color and venture and there are never enough. Reality is it's full right. We have Amy, we gotta
we gotta leave it there. Amy naukis co foundering co c I O at Anthemus, joining us this afternoon on the phone from New York City. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg
Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We got some breaking news the US just now declaring monkey pox a public health emergency that allows more funding to fight monkey pox, the Health and Human Services saying that more than six hundred thousand geneos monkey pox doses have been delivered two states thus far. We've got a perfect guest joining us
on this right now. Dr G. G. Granvall, Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Public Health. It is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg under of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Gronwald, Good to have you with us this afternoon, and really perfect timing for you to join us, because, as I mentioned just moments ago, the US has declared monkeypox a public health emergency.
Apart from allowing more funding to fight this virus, what does this actually do? Yeah, this will help the federal government get more information from the states. So declaring it a public health emergency, the states will have reporting requirements, so the CDC will have a better idea of just how many cases there are, how many tests have been delivered or have been taken, and how many of the vaccines have been delivered, so it will make it a lot easier to get a better picture nationwide of the
monkey pox epidemic. And what have we learned about monkey pox so far in terms of how to protect ourselves from getting it, what to do if you do get monkey pox, because I feel like it took a lot of people by surprisers. Absolutely, I think, at least speaking innecdotally, some COVID fatigue when it comes to sort of managing health risks there. Yeah, I mean we're all tired of infectious diseases, but um, but there are a lot of them, and and unfortunately this is the latest one that we're
dealing with. UM. We've known about monkey pops being emerging disease for some time. UM, how it when it appears this is you know, this is a surprise. Um, but you know it's not a surprise. Uh. So we know that we could have been or should have been better prepared for it, and we have to catch up, um
learning more about it. UM. So we know that it has spread very differently than COVID, So you shouldn't be as concerned about aerosol transmission, so you don't have to worry about being in the same room as somebody, um who has monkey pops, unless you're maybe delivering care to them, in which case you should take simplecautions. But um, for most transmission is through close contact, and that's how most
of the transmission has occurred so far. Okay, let's shift gears because we got a couple of minutes left, and I want to get an update from you on how we're thinking about COVID right now. Uh, Dr Gronvill. We're going to be heading back to school. Wow, already in the next few weeks. It's pretty remarkable to see. I know,
time flies, It certainly does. Uh. How are you thinking about this when when it comes to kids in school, Because we have a tool for kids under five right now that we didn't have just a few months ago. My son was able to get his first shot recently of the Maderna vaccine, so I think that means that he won't have to wear a mask when he's fully vaccinated at school, which is pretty exciting. Yeah. I think
it's going to really depend on the population. UM. You know, some schools may decide to have masks for the first week or so as UM children are mixing from different places, UM, and and after maybe one round of testing has occurred. I'm sure that there will be different policies that have put into place in different places. But UM, but I think you know, having taking advantage of the vaccine if you can, it's really the best way to protect your
child from UM severe disease. And UM we may not be able to escape and encounter with the virus, but um, but you can do one big thing to lessen your chances of any severe outcome, and that's getting vaccinated. UM. So when it comes to masks, UM, you know, those are very controversial, as we know, but they do work and so maybe in limited circumstances people can persuaded to use them. And also, portable hair air filters are a really good thing to have in classrooms. So you can
build them yourselves. There's mechanisms to there's ways to build them. They're called Corsie Rosenthall boxes. It's a d I y approach that really is helpful. Or you can use federal funds to buy them. Okay, really helpful stuff. Um, Hey, we got thirty seconds left. Do we have to worry about another search happening in the fall when things start
to get colder. UM, people have been looking for seasonality for a COVID for some time, and it's just been a sustained amount of transmission with new variants, so I you know, it could be. I'm not gonna second guest Insprus, except to say that that we have pretty high transmission
as is and we don't need a search alright. G. G. Grandvall, Dr. G. G. Grandvall, Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, joining us on the phone from Baltimore, of course, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim
Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Let's turn out to some of the crypto news that Tim teas. We've got a great guess. Olga Carey, if she's a crypto reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from Portland, Oregon. Olga, Let's start with micro strategy, because the big news there, of course, is Michael Sailor stepping down as chief executive officer. He's going to remain with the company. Of course, it was interesting the market reaction. You actually saw a surge
in micro Stargy yesterday. Uh. This news, of course was coming on Tuesday. Olga, just walk us through on what the thinking around this company is right now, because in addition to its huge bitcoin buys, nominally it's a software maker. Absolutely, so it's interesting, it's a it's a large enterprise software company.
And of course, in the last two years, Michael Saylor has also created a parallel bitcoin strategy, and supposedly now he's gonna become executive chairman and focus on strategy and uh, focus more on on the company's bitcoin strategy, while the incoming CEO will focus on the actual enterprise software business. And I think part of the reason the market like the news was because in the Ernies call, the company essentially hyped this idea that you know, we are a
hundred percent behind bitcoin. We will continue with the strategy, even even though micro Strategy had an impairment charge of almost a million dollars in the second quarter because of the decline and the price of its bitcoin holdings. Alright, Olga, I gotta get from micro Strategy we had so much news to get to. Okay, so bear with me because I'm gonna jump around a little bit. Uh. The news that I saw this morning that really caught my eye
was what's happening with coin base today. We saw black Rock teaming up with it, We saw platforms Well, look what it did to a company's stock. I don't know. I mean, Taylor made a good point on our samolcast earlier, which and I want to get your take on this, Olga is it seems I think by some sort of a legitimization right of this black Rock after all partnering with coin base, how do you read into it? Absolutely?
You know, I talked with some institutional investors today who took this as a sort of major step and institutional adoption of crypto. And of course black Rock customers will now use a coin base to be able to track and manage their bitcoin holdings. It's a sort of at this point a very limited partnership related to only bitcoin.
But you know, a lot of people think that a lot of the other firms on Wall Street that maybe have been fearful of stepping into crypt crypto will take this as a sign that, you know, maybe we should venture and now And Olga, I mean, I guess it's in terms of, you know, trying to justify the reaction that we saw on coin based shares, which was I think it was up as much as was this morning. It was crazy. I don't know if that was before the market open. I have to check. I'm gonna go check.
We'll check on the senor. You asked the question terminal. Okay, okay, back to the question, so, Olga, I mean, it is interesting that black Rock didn't choose to sort of build its own sort of platform for this. It went with a crypto native company. Yeah. Absolutely, it's very interesting. And you know, back to your point of the coin based stock, Ali, I think part of it has been that coin Basis stock has been down so much. I mean, the company went public um a little over a year ago and
pretty much the stock uh it increased a bit. Uh, well, it dipped and it increased a bit alone with crypto prices last full and then it's been basically dropping like a rock. So part of the enthusiasm might be due to the fact that it's just dropped so so low. And although we have just about a minute or so left left. But I am curious what the heck is
going on with Salana. Yes, so Salana experience. Some of the Salana users all of a sudden have seen coins drained from the wallets, and I guess the investigation is still ongoing. Uh. All signs are pointing to prop jims with uh some wallets um that users have been using. Uh. You know, it's it's interesting uh in crypto as as
as you know. Uh uh, it's just bugs. Oh, kinds of bugs abound, and you know, everything is being built so quickly that you know, uh, the stuff happens, and as a result, hackers are just being very active, and it seems like every day we hear of something being drained. It's certainly not necessarily good news for the people who are being hacked, but it keeps you busy, Olga, and we love it when you join us here on Bloomberg Business Week. Over career crypto reporter for Bloomberg News, she
joins us on the phone from Portland, Oregon. The journal. Now, but you let me drive, Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the vels I want to drive. It's the question that drives This is the drive to the globe on Bluebird Radio and it's the drive to the close. We got less than ten minutes to go here in the US equity market, and we've got a great voice joining us to help us understand what's going on with
the markets, especially is this a bear market rally? Cole Smeade is the president and portfolio manager at Smeade at Capital Management. He joins us on the phone from Phoenix, Arizona. Col Cole, how are you this afternoon? Uh, we'll see in a lot of red in the oil patch right now, but knowing that's just part of the game when you want to own a business for a long time and
get really wealthy. Okay, well let's start with oil because this is an area that you know, last time we spoke, you were really bullish on You think there's despite the fact that we're you know, pretty far from a barrel where we saw things just very recently now close to ninety Um, what's your outlook? Yeah? So I think what? Um?
I think? What kind of is going on just in the interim, is you know, those stocks have moved up a lot lot um kind of the momentum crowd is kind of trying to figure out where to kind of you know, go play chips at the casino next, and so you I just see, I think you're seeing a lot of short term momentum disappear. But for people like us, what we're paying attention to is how much book value
per share is growing in those businesses. So, for example, occidentally reported this week, Uh, we were looking at the numbers. Book value per share grew eleven point four percent in the quarter. Now, what did most that come off of was paying down debt inwards. The net worth grew because there's less liabilities to call the assets um. But that's
coming from cash generation. And it's very tough to find businesses in the U stock market or in other markets like Canada and the oil patch that that produced that kind of book value per share growth. And I'm just so you know, Tim we I think that's exactly what buffets looking at because for years Berrture used to track their performance in book value growth against the essences under returns.
Well cool, let's let's frow it out a little bit and talk about the index level and wrap it into what we've been hearing from just the parade of FED speakers that we've gotten this week, Because it feels like the FMC members have pushed back pretty strongly on the idea that, you know, perhaps they would slow down the pace of rate hikes. But then you look at the SMP five hundred, you look at the NASAC one hundred.
We've seen a pretty big rally, especially yesterday. Of course today it's a little bit that's tepid, you could say, But I'm curious how you you marry those two stats together.
Why does that make sense? It's a great question, and I think to your latter point, Katie, I think you're getting it something that we that people have to be very careful on, because what you're kind of leading to say is, well, look what the markets are telling us, okay, And you have to remember markets do not instruct you, They serve you, okay, As Buffett says, So to use that example, anybody it looked late last year, they say, well, what's the market telling us? And the answer was, what
was a bear market? You idiot? Right, That's what the markets we're going to tell you in the end. But nobody knew that at the time. And so how we look at this when it comes to what the Federal Reserve is attempting to do, they are going to attempt to try to raise rates in a way to get real real rates on the short end of the curve to zero. Now, where are they gonna have to do that?
I mean north of four, probably five? Because the question is is how is aggregate demand going to react to that, which so far aggregate demand has not done what you'd have thought, um, you know, compared to most rate rises. I think that has to do with the consumer and the household and that kind of stuff. But I just pointed out, because what if this is terribly sticky and
what if it continues to flow through wages? So the best wages in America year over year last you know, looking twelve months back, was the lowest income cortile okay, Which means if blue collar America or the lower end part of America's winning, who the loser is in fed rate increases our asset owners a k a. The stock market, okay? And so that what you know in the resultan POSAR framework, good is bad? Right? We have this great economy that's
bad because rates are going to glot faster. The question is bad for who, I would argue less so bad for the economy that will probably affect it at some point, it's really bad for stocks and bonds. But here's a great part. For bonds, they're less volatile than stocks, which means, as we've seen in the tenure, you can kind of suck up your bleeding uh slower over time. Stocks don't
have that benefit. So cool, I mean putting that pushing up forward to what they're going to get tomorrow and sort of the data release and NFP of course, uh, the employment figures. It sounds like by that logic, I mean, if we've got a really strong number, perhaps that would be bad news for the asset owners for the equity market. Yeah, but this this equity market has been very strange. Um, we kind of think we're halfway through it. I'll get
I'll give you a little uh statistic. Go look at margin den In any big bear market, margin dead always declines over I think we got the any some odd percent in this decline. So um, I look at the equity investors in the sun and negregate today. They are a group of people that say, eat, drink and be
merry for tomorrow we die. If they're unwilling to give up on their bullishness and their excitement and their hope that inflation won't be a big deal for stocks, when in reality, I agree with you, m it is going to impact them. We're likely to end this decade the decade of theies like we did in the seventies. We're probably no one wants to own stocks and maybe not own bonds because of the effects of the costa capitalizing
and inflation. So where are they going to invest? Well, if I'm using my nineteen seventies framework, guess what sector did better than any sector in the SMP five hundred and ended up being of the stock market by the end of the seventies. Exactly seventies. And you know what Coals talking about. Then you think energy, so and people. He's just mad at me because I did a little
tim splanning. So I'm sorry, please come on. Yeah, I was gonna say that this is millennial splanning, by the way, But so the nineteen seventies, most people lost money outright, or particularly in real terms. Right. There was nominal money made in some cases, but in real terms you lost money. The only place where you made real wealth was roughly an energy Some of the real estate spots did well
during that time, etcetera. Um. The primary name of the game the next decade ahead, and stocks is retaining real purchasing power. And I cannot over emphasize that because if the rest of wealthy America gets poorer in real terms and you don't, you win. That's how this game is played. Alright, Cole, we gotta leave it there. It's always great when you join us. That's Cole Smede, president and portfolio manager at Smeede Capital Management. He joins us this afternoon on the
phone from Phoenix, Arizona. Check him out on Twitter at Cole Underscore Smade. That's ce L E. S m E a d. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Busines this week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News
