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While the US ray that captured Venezuela and President Nicholas Maduro put America's allies and adversaries definitely unnoticed, President Trump has a new World Order tim of his own. At least that's how it's been reporting out.
Yeah. In the aftermath of the stunning late night operation at Sammaduro and his wife wist from a guarded military base near Caracas to a New York jail, President Trump demonstrated just how far the US is willing to go to eliminate a leader seen as a threat to American interests and security. So we're looking at the challenges that come next. Those are the ones that are presented by
the US raid on Venezuela. We welcome Rockford Whites, President, Professor of Practice and Director of the Maritime Studies program at Toft's Universities, Fletcher's School, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He joins US from Tucson, Arizona. Professor, Good to have you on the program. What do you believe is the true motivation of the US when it comes to Venezuela, great question.
What we're looking at here is this is a geopolitical competition between the United States and China and Russia over who is the main ally of Venezuela in the Caribbean.
Wow.
Okay, So before what we saw at late Friday and early Saturday, what would you have said is the true ally? Who would you have said is a true ally? And then now after how does the US become the true ally?
Okay? All right, so great quest. I love these questions.
So before it was a combination of China was their geoeconomic ally helping them with infrastructure, Russia was a military ally with basing rights there and supporting their military. And even Iran, even though it's not a great power, was helping Venezuela. So they had that was their sort of cast of characters, as well as Cuba. Cuba's frankly a little bit more reliant on Venezuela than vice versa. Everything has changed since Saturday morning in the sense that there
is obviously new leadership in Venezuela, a transition leadership. It's unclear who will be in charge in the long run, but it's very clear that the great power that's going to have the most influence over Venezuela is now the United States.
What I'm wondering, Professor White, you know, what's the international precedent for doing something like this? I mean, how should we read what is essentially a kidnapping of a leader of a foreign country and his wife, removal of the leader from said country. What's it akin to in our past history, our recent past history. And to be fair, it's not the first time the US or others have removed a global leader or worked behind the scenes to
support US friendly groups leaders in foreign countries. So we get that we're not all naive, but I'm just curious, are we setting up for kind of a leader grab around the world among countries and among global powers?
Great?
Another great question, thank you, So let me try to answer it using history. So it was actually ironically thirty six years ago to the day that the United States took Noriega from Panama, and that's the closest parallel. So he also was charged with narco trafficking. He was also then taken to the United States for prosecution. They also justified it in exactly the same way. There was an indictment against him in the United States, so that covered
the domestic law piece. And then under the UN Charter, countries are allowed self defense and it also self defense of their population. So it was framed this was back in nineteen ninety under Bush Senior as no Diego as a narco trafficker and therefore must be taken care of to protect the American people from the drug trade. That is allowed under the UN Charter as self defense, so
that covers you under international law. Again, every legal issue is gray, so people will say it's against international law, but you can make a case that it's consistent with international law and the UN Charter. You can make a case that it's consistent with domestic law. And I would say it does set a precedent that other narco trafficking leaders around the world could be taken not just by the United States but by others.
But this doesn't really apply to Taiwan.
I've spent a lot of time in Taiwan, and narco trafficking is not their game, and so I think that the precedent can be narrowed.
But it doesn't. It also means that.
Other large countries, other great powers like China and Russia, will look at this to see how they can use it to their advantage.
Well, you mentioned Taiwan, but what about Russia, and what about Vladimir Putin in Russia? Could he use this as justification for doing something to Zelenski.
So Putin will try to come up with any justification to go after Zelenski. But Zelenski clearly is not a narco trafficker. I don't think anyone's saying that, so we can argue not. The other thing is Zelensky has very powerful friends right next door, the NATO, the Northern Niactary Organization. Poland borders Ukraine the US. Although Trump has not supported as much as maybe previous presidents have, We're behind Zelensky.
Zelensky's got powerful friends. Venezuela really didn't have powerful friends in this part of the world. China is a very strong navy around Taiwan, for example, they don't have a major naval presence in the Caribbean as well.
It is a naval power.
It's not nearly as strong as either China or the United States, but it doesn't have a major Caribbean presence. So what's fundamentally happened is in the Americas, the US is the major great power with the major military And I will just note this because it is important for the bigger conversation. The Trump administration did issue its national
security strategy just last month. It said we're going to focus more attention on the Americas, and it was consistent with this operation in Venezuela, though I will admit I was surprised at how much force was used to take Maduro and his wife one hundred and fifty aircraft.
I mean, this was a major operation on Saturday.
Wow, so many different places to go. Well, having said that, you know, listening to a lot of the coverage here on Bloomberg, professor wise, it sounds also like that the US intelligence has been on the ground for some time. We're going to talk about this a little bit later on on on our broadcast, but that they had help in kind of pulling this together. Is that a bad assumption or read into the US getting an assist from other leaders in Venezuela.
I think it's an accurate read.
I've been following this basically United days since Saturday, a lot of coffee. But basically what has happened is it's not surprising the United States has been focused on Maduro and his regime. Really, it's been bipartisan. Biden also had a bounty out for Maduro to be removed. So Maduro is not popular internationally, he's not popular domestically. He's essentially clinging on to power. I thought one of the most interesting things was that his almost his entire security staff
were Cubans. This has come out from multiple sources, so it's not surprising that the United States would spend a couple months gathering intelligence. I have to say that this was almost perfectly executed from a special operations perspective. They had one mission kidnap said what kidnapped, but sees Maduro and his wife take them to the United States. At the same time, essentially take out the Venezuelan military. So
the Venezuelan Navy essentially no longer exists. Same for the Air Force, no more radar, any tanks they had are probably gone. So this was executed very well, and of course intelligence was involved, so and Trump even said that publicly, CIA is already there. So I would say public sources have verified it, multiple sources.
I think it's probably accurate to say that's correct.
Well, that's one part of the mission, and that was certainly this mission. But I think many critics out there and even observers saying, now comes the hard part, the potential power vacuum. And we've seen what quote unquote nation building for the United STS data has looked like in the past. How does that play out? What is the right way for the US to do that?
This is literally what I think is the most important question for today. So I call this the Day After challenge. This is a big deal. It's going to be very difficult to smoothly create a transition to a new government in a peaceful way without triggering an insurgency. The Venezuelan military wasn't really strong before Saturday. They're really not strong now that being said, similar to Vietnam, similar to Colombia. I used to live in Colombia. I know the country well.
I've been to Venezuela as well as a tourist in the nineties. There's parts of Venezuela that are the perfect guerrilla warfare area. The United States has, I think no interest in a long term occupation of Venezuela because it would not be it would not be pretty, and it would look similar to some of our misadventures in the Middle East. I think the model to look cat is Panama. You have in Venezuela a recognized opposition. You have Maria Karina Machado, who is the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner.
You have at Mundo Gonzales, who is the declared winner internationally recognized of the last presidential election. They're friends, They're a good opposition. I think what can happen is that they can be brought into this process and that the
US can help them establish some level of control. Probably involves a few hundred, maybe a few thousand elite American troops guarding say the presidential palace in Caracas, and essentially having a presence at all the major military bases, certainly around Caracas, and then eventually that gets transitioned over to the new government. It's going to be hard. The essentially Venezuela has had a dysfunctional government since nineteen ninety nine.
Maduro was in power for over ten years as a dictator.
All of his allies are in the National Assembly, they're in the government, they're in the military. There's narco traffickers who are well armed. So it's not going to be easy, but I do think it's possible.
I also, I think it's.
Very different from Iraq or Afghanistan because there's no religious element here.
Venezuelan's not only.
Are they all Christian, that are all Catholic, So there's no that's not a piece of It doesn't mean it's easy. I think it's going to take a lot of bandwidth to do it.
Well.
I'm not sure if the Trump administration is ready to do it, but we will see.
We will see.
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Money Managers, They've been loading up on Benel and debth This is one of the stories that we've been reporting out here at Bloomberg. This has been happening in the past few months as President Trump ramped up pressure on President Maduro, with some investors seeing the potential for restructuring as early as this year. And then, of course Tim, then we had the weekend happened.
So with more on that, let's head to Sarasota, Florida, and to Mike Collins, managing director, an executive portfolio advisor on the multisector team over at PGIM. PGIM fixed Income approximately one and a half trillion dollars and total assets under management for PGM fixed Income it's more than one billion dollars, Mike, big picture, how big of a deal is it what happened in Venezuela, especially when it comes to the global market and investing landscape. How are you looking at it?
Yeah?
Tim and Catroll, Happy New Year. Great, great to be here.
You know, I get these questions all the time whenever you have these geopolitical flaw ups around the world, whether they're in Asia, the Middle East, or Latin America. And my answer is always the same, you know, kind of fade the headlines is generally the knee jerk instinct that you should have as an investor. You should really focus on the fundamentals of the global economy, the fundamentals of the US economy, where growth is going.
To be, where inflation is going to be.
Obviously, commodity prices are in the headlines today with the Venezuela thing. But remember Venezuela is producing now less than one percent of global oil. Remember sixty years ago, back when I was born, they were producing fifteen percent of the world's oil, and now they're less than one percent, right, So they have taken a huge fall from grace. They do not have a big impact economically on the global stage.
Sixty years ago, believe it or not, Venezuela was in the top quartile of all countries in terms of GDP per capita. Today they are at the bottom of the list, right, And you think of other countries where they've been geopolitical flare ups. Typically these countries don't have huge international economic implications. So that's why the markets are just kind of, you know, whistling past the graveyard here and just ignoring the geopolitical risk. That is the standard playbook.
Michael, just forgive me. I want to go back more than a trillion dollars over at PGM fixed income under management. I misspoke earlier, Okay, so if that's why, if that's why we're seeing sort of the relative calm today, let's then focused on focus on kind of what comes next and the political and potential implications for that, because I think that is a big question that investors have right now.
I mean, certainly people don't want to see some prolonged and you know, dare I say boots on the ground mission in the country. But but I think that I mean, to me, going into this week, that was a big concern that I thought investors would have. What if this actually gets turns into something a kind of like we've seen with past quote unquote nation building activities from the US.
We've spent most of the weekend and a lot of this morning doing deep dives into the situation in ven Azuell. I mean, I'm fortunate to work on this gigantic team where we have you know, geopolitic political analysts, we have really deep economic analytical resources. We have people who've been in the military, so we have a lot of great color just from our own team and our and our contacts.
And there's really two scenarios right One team is the one you pointed out that that things do get ugly that Venezuela kind of gets worse, conditions get worse, that the US tries to do a more aggressive takeover, and it gets really messy some of the situations in the
Middle East that your last guest was talking about. But there's also this upside scenario, right, and I think it kind of confirms the fact that we're moving into this, you know, G three ish type of world and the US is certainly trying to take the lead there and showing that, hey, we have control of the Americas here, which could result in better outcomes for countries like Venezuela, could result in better outcomes for the US, could result
in better outcomes for other Latin American countries, right, And I think that's what the markets are focusing on. And we were looking at all the merging market debt quotes and runs out there right now, and generally the bonds are trading better, right, And I think they're looking at this as potentially the upside scenario, not the downside.
But you're absolutely right.
I mean, we really have to keep our radar attentive to those potential downside risks.
Yeah, Mike, on that point, A raftive investment firm Yeing opportunities in Venezuela after that US strike. Trebeca Investment Partners is sending a team to excuse me, Caracos this week to inspect potential assets, calling it a gold rush.
Have you guys changed.
Any of your investment thesis when it comes to Venezuela at this point are.
Not yet well. Remember they've been pretty heavily sanctioned in terms of trading and also trading some of their security. So good news is for people have a huge emerging market debt team and big investments around the world in emerging market debt. You know, this could potentially free up trading opportunities and relative value opportunity. I mean again, these bonds, some of their bonds have you know, doubled or tripled over the last over the last few weeks, so they're
still creating It really just stress levels. Right, we're talking you know, twenty thirty cents on the dollar. But you know, there are opportunities, for sure, there are going to be
a lot of relative opportunities. We're looking at even places like Columbia today we're talking about where their local interest rates are really high and their credit spreads are pretty wide, and so you know, I think it sets up the world for better relative value trading opportunities, and that's something we're really looking to capitalize on.
So, Mike, if you had to kind of make a bet, I mean, is it fifty percent that the fortunes and maybe economic and investment outlook for Venezuela are changing for the better at this point?
Or is it? You know, I would say it's a little better than a coin toss carola probably, but higher odds. Maybe I'm just you know, talking our book or agreeing with the market's reaction so far. But yeah, but it certainly feels like, you know, when you're having more private sector resources coming to a country that's been totally mismanaged in terms of their natural resources in their politics, you know, there is I think a higher likelihood of a better
outcome there. But you know, the road to that better outcome can be really long, right, and what with all.
Kinds of problems, right, lots of bumps can always happen. Certainly in a situation like this, many would.
Agree with that.
Hey, Mike, before you go, I'm thinking about the US this week. We do get a jobs report on Friday, We have a bunch of economic news. We did see the US treasury curve move down today, a little bit of economics news today. What is more important though, in terms of the US Treasury trade at this point is it the US economy what the Fed does ultimately, just give us about thirty forty seconds on that, if you would.
Yeah, again, it's going back to the fundamentals, Carol, Right, And if you're looking at US growth, I mean, if anything, expectations for growth this year have ticked up over the last few months. We're entering twenty twenty six with really strong kind of real GDP or consumption and capital expenditure expectations, you know, momentum going into this year. So most forecasts now for US GDP have two handles right where it's not that long ago, they're.
In the ones.
I think the recession risks have moderated in the US and we've taken hour probabilities down, and the upside risk to growth to more productivity from AI maybe too higher inflation and permanently higher rates has gone up. And that's actually not a great environment for risk assets necessarily.
Right.
So we've been threading this needle. We call it the muddle through scenario where you kind of run at two percent, you have inflation stuck. You know, between two and three the fetiaeses a couple of times. That's a great environment for growth and for inflation and for financial assets.
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A big question that many people have been asking in the wake of the US strikes in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicholas Maduro is what comes next? The surgical extraction of Maduro is done, but what about the future of the country. Him and a Sunia is Bloomberg Economics geoeconomic analysts for Latin America. She joins U from the Bloomberg Buenos Aires Bureau Jimana, It's good to have you on the program. You and the team right. The
range of possible outcomes is wide. What are some of these outcomes?
Thank you thanks for having me. I think there are We can point out three possible scenarios for Venezuela going forward. The first one is that after this transition, there is the establishment of a stable, market friendly, pro West democratic government in Venezuela, and that would probably, of course be the best and most favorable outcome for Venezuela on the world, with consequences for debt markets, all prices, the Venezuela and diaspora and beyond.
I just want to jump in. I just want to jump in here on this one. Who would be the leader of the country in a scenario such as this.
I think in this scenario there are two dise things possibility. There could be one interpretation that is, the US has just cleared the path for the constitutional order to be restored, and in that case, the leader that should assume the government should be the winner of the twenty twenty four
presidential elections. However, there's also the possibility that that leader, because of all the constit institutional disorder that has been in the past few years, there could be a call for a constitutional assembly, a constituent assembly, so that the government draft so that the country drafts the new constitution and then calls for presidential elections again, in which I think that Maria Corina Matchello, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize and the leading figure in the opposition the
winner of the twenty twenty three primaries who did not could not run into a four because she was barred by the government. I think she would be in the most favorable position position to win.
A man how much of a guarantee, I guess is the question. I want that Venezuela does ultimately have a lasting, market friendly, pro democratic government.
I think, of course, that's a messy path, right, It's not easy. Venezuela currently has still a military military that for years has been very intertwined with the regime. They have privileges, they have businesses. There's also paramilitary militias that have arms and have interests and control certain areas. There are elements of foreign governments like Hezbola and fark and Eland from Colombia, and so it's a very challenging situation
for a government to take over. And that's part of the reason why the Trump administration has said, however controversial, this is that they are running the country, meaning that they are allowing the vice president of the regime, now sworn in President else Rodriguez, to take over because the regime does actually have the levers of power to keep things under control and avoid scenario of chaos and in fighting.
The key question is whether this is the first step of a transition that over time, you know, for example, by disarming our militias, by cracking down on drug trafficking, et cetera, can lead to an opposition taking over down the line under conditions that allow it to establish civilian control of armed forces and project political and economic stability.
He man For those who aren't familiar with the Venezuelan economy, what is it today and what are the Venezuelan people facing in terms of inflation and the economy?
What could it be?
I think thank you for that question, because that's what many people may not have so top of mind. Venezuela used to be among the richest and largest economies in the region, an economy of about four hundred billion dollars with the GDP per capital of about thirteen thirteen thousand per capita, which is puts it squarely in the middle
income bracket along with countries like Argentina or Uruguay. And it was a country of regional and global relevance because it also sits on the largest share of oil reserves. And now Venezuela is a lower income country of about the GDP about one hundred one hundred billion of GDP per capita in the four thousands, and impoverished population. Eight
million people have left the country. And so the upside if Venezuela could recover its political and economic normalcy, it's enormous towards that path of economic significance it had in the past.
Okay, you've certainly laid out one scenario here. Two more scenarios that you mentioned. I want to make sure we get to those two. What is the worst possible outcome for Venezuela.
I think the worst possible outcome, the risks of that one are reduced now, would be that there is not a power vacuum right with the Exito Maduro, that there is a power vacuum, and then different factions fight for power, and therefore there is the establishment of a credible, stable, democratic government. Is begins to seem unachievable. There could be a search in violence, There could be exacerbating migration and migration and securities spillovers to other countries in Latin America,
and things could go worse Latin America. Venezuela now has a GDP about one hundred billion dollars, but it used to be about half that much in the twenty twenty bottom. Also similar with oil production, it's not about a million down from two point five million bars day before the collapse, but it was about half less than half this much in the trough. So things could go worse, and so that's definitely the worst case.
You know him And the other thing I think about my daughter, you know, who has studied some of Latin America, South American in terms of the history, it has had kind of a tortured relationship, certainly with US involvement, and it's not always been a good one. How do we ensure that what happens isn't just protecting business interests but instead really once again putting Venezuela on a path to long term prosperity.
No, absolutely, I think that that brings me to a third scenario, which is that the US sort of running the country via the pressure exerted over the Zi Rodriguez or elements of Javis who might succeed her. If this lingers into the future, that's an intermediate outcome that might you know, look more stable into so they're not being in fighting or a very chaotic situation, but would still
be an authoritarian, non democratic government and non sovereign. In addition, I think the risk of that scenario is there in the sense that the US could be more focused on the resources. The Trump administrations transaction or in nature, might lead them to prioritize some economic policy measures and delay the democratic transition. Trump may shift gears and focus on
domestic issues and leave the democratic transition and attended. But there are also things mitigating that risk, And one key issue I would highlight is that the Venezuela's incentives are fairly aligned with the US incentives in the sense that it is in Venezuela's interest also to recover its economic institutions, open up its energy sectors so that it.
Can take off.
And probably a democratic opposition which would be ideally positioned to win up elections, would probably also be pro West and pro US. So I think that that limits the risk that the US is says to stay.
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We've got markets stocks in particular off their best levels of the session, still up about seven tens of a percent on the S and P five hundred, Nasdaq one hundred and ten right now up about eight tens of a percent. We have seen more names higher in today's session, so it's been largely a risk on trade today. But just feel like investors are kind of coming off some of those highs or earlier highs.
This might not have been on the predictions for the analysts out there who with their Wall Street target guessing not well, let's see what says still politics maybe, but in general right. Sam Stoveall's chief investment strategist at Safare Research.
He joins us from Allentown, Pennsylvania. Sam, we wanted to talk general markets with you, but I mean we got to talk about the topic that really is gathering all the news today, and that's everything happening with Nicholas Maduro and in Venezuela, and it's seemingly not affecting at least the equity market in terms of investor concerns. Investors bullish today. How do you explain it?
Well, Tim, I think it really is what we've seen in the past that military events, going all the way back to World War Two, most of them have really ended up being more headline events than bottom line events,
and I think this one would be the same. Of course, you know, you do have some areas like energy prices that are rising for today, but expectations are that should we be able to improve the transportation, refining, and so forth coming out of Venezuela, then they're one percent and exposure or contribution to worldwide energy could be on the rise and that would bring down energy prices in the
longer term. So you know, in general, I think it just adds to the overall risk on feeling that we started to get at the beginning of this new year.
I will say, though, you know, Sam, it does feel like there's like national security issues that a lot of nations are thinking about what they need to be secure, and maybe COVID taught us all having supply chains concentrated in certain parts of the world not necessarily a good thing, and so people are thinking about AI and the technology and what's needed in terms of rare materials in order
to kind of keep that engine going. So I'm trying to understand what that means then if there is a bit of a grab around the world as different nations shore up their national security interests and concerns, what that means for the investment environment? Is it more friendly?
Is it more volatile?
In general?
I think it's probably a little less friendly. We started out twenty twenty five to worry about tariffs, indicating that we're probably going to get thrown back into a smooth holly kind of situation back in nineteen thirty, where you know that would end up causing all of the trading
partners to become adversaries. So with countries now playing it, we're likely to play it very cautiously, wanting to hold on to whatever rare earth minerals that they have, energy that they have, etc. Then it would probably make these trading partners less likely to cooperate, and that could end up being a concern that could hold back prices and optimism in the intermediate and longer term.
In your role at CFRA, how do you look at oil prices. I know that's not necessarily your BALI wick, but I'm wondering if that's if it does have a broader effect, and we know it has a broader effect on the economy, and therefore I'm wondering if, in your view, how it affects markets, Like, what does it possibly mean that all this oil could come online?
Well, there's an old saying that for every ten dollars increase or decrease in the price of oil will raise or lower GDP by about twenty percent of one basis points. So you know, the thought being then that you know, with higher energy prices that actually could end up slowing overall growth, with lower energy prices could actually be contributing
to that. And so as a result, yes, longer term energy because we still haven't switched over to sell powered et cetera, that energy, you know, the carbon materials still end up being the dominant energy force, and so we're going to have to be playing with that for quite some time.
Hey, Sam, you know, in terms of markets, and I'm just thinking about here, we are coming off of three really strong years for the S and P five hundred one wonders whether or not it could be four in a row. Having said that, I think a lot about earnings. We know JP Morgan will kind of officially unofficially kick
it all off on January thirteenth. What are your expectations for earnings and whether or not that is a fundamental catalyst for equities in particular to maybe move to the upside or continue to move higher.
Sure well, I'll answer a couple of those questions. First off, we had a three peat. We've had three three peats over the last eighty five years. In the S and P five hundred, we've had two four peats and only one five peat. So you could say that the atmosphere is getting pretty rare up here and it's less likely that we will end up with a four peat. Doesn't mean we're not going to have a double digital or that we will not have a positive move we don't
get the double digit gain. Actually, in that fourth year, after the third double digit advance, we have seen the market up by more about ten percent on average, rising sixty percent of the time, So you could say that that is favorable. What would be driving that well? Earnings growth? The Q four twenty twenty five estimate right now is
for a seven percent gain. According to SMP capital IQ consensus estimates, we're looking for a fourteen percent gain for all of twenty twenty six and inching our way up to about a fifteen percent advance in twenty twenty seven. So with investors being concerned a bit about valuations, certainly that is being in a sense whittled away at by the improving earnings outlook that we've been seeing over this year and next year.
What about midterms? Throw that into the mix. How does that complicate or change things?
Yes, well, that ends up being a big headwind overall, because midterm election years have actually seen the SMP post only a three point eight percent annual increase, and that compares with the nine point three percent that we normally get in the S and P five hundred in those three other years. Also, the frequency was really a coin toss up fifty five percent of the time versus seventy six percent of the time for the other three years.
And in terms of.
Volatility, average drawdown of eighteen percent, which is the highest of the four years in the presidential cycle. So essentially, we could end up with a good year, but it's likely to be a very bumpy one.
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Mm HM