Vaccine Hesitancy Persists Despite Delta Variant

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We mentioned some of the COVID headlines about Texas dispatching people to Walmart's to get them to get vaccinations. Some sevent tim of New York City residents they have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Looking out, that's pretty good compared to where we are in the world, and of course we're in

the United States. Some other numbers here globally, cases topping a hundred nine two point two million deaths exceeding four point one million. As far as vaccines look, more than three point seven one billion doses administered. Remember a lot of these vaccines required two doses. Yeah, absolutely, and everybody day has been out are a lot of people, i should say, from the Biden administration out there talking about the importance of vaccinations and also understanding uh information, factual

information when it comes to getting that vaccine well. Earlier this week on Monday, Dr Anthony Faucci caught up with our David Weston of Bloomberg about the rising cases and about accessing factual information. The best way to counter misinformation and disinformation is by providing a lot of correct information. And that's the reason why you have to get trusted messengers out there, the people who people in the community look to and trust. That could be a family physician

or a healthcare provider. A clergy person is another group of individuals that are highly respected or community leaders that people in the community look up to, much better than having government officials always doing it. And of course that's Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease doctor on COVID,

speaking earlier this week to David Weston. Well. Joining us now is Rupauli LeMay, Associate Director for Behavioral Research at the Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health joining us on the phone from Falls Church, Virginia. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Reply,

it's great to have you back on the program. My question is about getting people who haven't been vaccinated vaccinated. If you haven't been vaccinated yet, despite the availability, despite the sense that they're actually free, are you actually going to go get vaccinated? There anything that public health officials are, clergy members or family members can tell you to get vaccinated. Yeah, thanks so much for having me. It's great to be back. I think a couple of things that we're seeing in

terms of the proportion of folks that are unfascinated. These typically are individuals that have had hesitant fee in the past and have concerns that just haven't been addressed. And a huge issue that we are seeing with welks that are still not vascinated is really the exposure to misinformation. And a doctor of at she said, the disinformation and that's really informing I think their decision making process. What can we do? I think we have to continue to

have one on one conversations with people. We need to make sure that we're empathetic when people have concerns and not be dismissive of those concerns. And really, in my mind, this is really public healthy one on one right, it's sort of having boots on the ground. It's talking to people to where to meeting them where they are, and making sure that they feel comfortable with the information that you're providing to them in a way that is accessible,

that's understandable, and that is trustful. Well, you know, I think part of the problem is to that general public doesn't always maybe trust government or trust big pharma, And so it's I guess a feeling of everybody's kind of talking their book, and I guess how do we get to a point where it isn't about that, it's about their science behind things. And so you know, where do we go? Where does someone go um to really get

the truth about something? Right? I mean, we're so also quick when we've got an ailment right to go online and google and and read about things, But there are sources that are better than others. What's your advice to the general public? And I agree that going to health providers that you trust. Um, what else would you suggest?

I think you make a really good point. There has been a decline in trust in the healthcare system here in the United States, and we saw this free COVID and then I think it has continued to decline, and I think that has been exacerbated by social media. One thing to think about is that the person that you trust the most with regards to information about vaccines might

not be a health care provider. And a lot of states have done an excellent job leveraging these different trusted voices, if you will, such as clergy for example, civic leaders, teachers, um. And so I think it's not just about you know, going you if you trust your healthcare provider, definitely, but it seems like people that are hesitant tend to not

trust their health care provider. And so I think the key here is leveraging some of these other voices to really come forward and talk about their experience with a vaccine and you know, a recommendation as to whether or not they have gotten a vaccine and why their folks and people that they know should get the vaccine. I think that is the other piece to all of this is that I think it's going to take a long

time to rebuild this trust. I think part of the issue with all of this is that recommendations to have changed over time to keep up with the science. From a public health perspective, that means that science is working in public health is working. The public may not see it like that, right, They see it as like a flip flop, right exactly, And so that has also led to even I think more distrust of the health care system in the CDC um and generally public health in general.

So I think the other piece of all of this is how do we explain to folks that, you know, we're just trying to follow the science. And then that's coupled with this whole rise of anti science, and I think a number of outlets and I won't name them, are really sewing information that's not correct and that I think fuel this anti science sentiment that we have seen increased, especially over the last year related to cod behavioral research.

This understanding people is not easy, but fortunately Rupoli's that's what that's what POLLI does. I'm wondering about really effective ways beyond clergy. I mean, I'm thinking, like, are we to a point where we're going to be seeing people officials go door to door to actually provide vaccines to

those who haven't gotten them yet. RUPOLLI. Yeah, there there are many different approaches that have been tested in trude within individuals that are vaccine hesitant and have been able to nudge the needle, if you will, right towards vaccination. So some of those are things using presumptive communication. One thing I think people forget from a behavioral perspective is that getting the vaccine is the norm. It's not an anomaly.

And so I think you love veraging the power of that and essentially saying that you know what everyone around you is getting the vaccine everyone has gotten. Is that Is that the case though? Sorry to interrupted that the case in in all communities? Are there some communities where that's still you're sort of the outlier if you do get the vaccine, it's not And I think part of the issue though, if you think about this from a

national standpoint, we are doing relatively well. The issue that we're seeing in the reasons that we're seeing continuing outbreaks is because we have those pockets right, so it's not evenly distributed with regards to vaccine coverage. So from a behavioral perspective, though it's very important to talk about this from the normative and say, essentially, you know, folks in the United States, if we look at our overall numbers,

we're doing really well. But the reasons that we are seeing outbreaks because it is uneven and so within these pockets, I think, you know, social norms are very, very, very important. Right, So if you think about these pockets, and the reason it's not homogeneous and there is so much heterogeneity within these different communities is because norms are very powerful. People are using their social networks Terman, whether or not they

want to get the vaccine. That social network can be through social media, right, which is a huge issue because of all the misinformation. But we're also seeing is that there has been a strong polarization relative to vaccine attitude. Meaning if you are pro vaccine and if you get the vaccine, it's very it's not likely that you're hanging out with friends in your close social network that aren't

getting the vaccine. The issue with that is that means that you're essentially hearing what you're leading to an echo chamber, right, You're talking to people that have the same type right, and have the same type of attitude, what you do you know, it's sorry, go ahead? No? No? No? You finished? Please? Please please sorry no? And I think no, it's okay. I think in terms of the clergy piece and yeah, and going door to door, I think that is an option.

But I do think that the social network piece is more prevalent and more persuasive with regards to changing behavior in this context. And so it's important to identify opinion leaders within these clusters that are unvaccinated that might be willing and open to get vaccinated and have them really serve as the spokesperson and to say this is what I decided, this is why I made this decision, This is why I first didn't want to get the vaccine,

but then I decided to get the vaccine. Because what we are hearing, especially from qualeagues that are frontline workers, is that as people are putting back unfortunately on ventilators or in ICU, they are then begging for the vaccine. Right, So it's sort of retrospective, like I really wish I

would have gotten it um. And so I think there is a way in which we can leverage really that power of social networks and really opinion leaders within these social networks that might be not only well regarded, but might also have influence over those that are unvaccinated. Probably what's interesting too, is I think about the things that we all do, or if I went to a doctor and gave me a prescription, I would probably not look up that prescription and look at the science because it

came from a doctor. Because it came from a doctor, I would just do it. Like think about the things we eat, the things we use cosmetics or consumer products, and we don't even who you know, not everybody looks at the ingredients, you know what I mean. There's a lot of stuff that we just do it. What is it about? This? Is it because it became so politicized And forgive me, because we've only got about thirty seconds left. Sorry, I'll make it sure. I think it's a couple of things.

I think one's under an emergency youth authorization, So I think there is concerned that it was developed very quickly, even though no corners were cut with purs because that's one too. It's become very polarized because the administration, there was an administration change. There was a lot of blame with regards to the rollout in the process. And I think three the issue is that social media has played

a huge role in this with regards to against polarizing people. Further, that might have been open to the idea of vaccines, but now we've essentially put them in echo chambers and people are now just kind of, you know, in their own little infolo world. If you will, I would love to talk to you on another at some point about social media and behavior, you know, the impact it's had on us as a society, because I can I bet you have some interesting perspective, So you have to come

back at another time and talk about that. Rue Poli, Thank you so much to Polly LeMay. She's Assassiate Director for Behavioral Research at the Nstitute for Vaccine in Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

on Bloomberg Radio. When for a president Donald Trump demanded a big, beautiful wall be built along the US southern border, a guy from North Dakota, Tim spent millions to build a three mile stretch on the Rio Grand and now he's kind of in a funny situation. Yeah, he's spent a lot of money doing it and hasn't gotten paid yet. It's the cover of this week's Bloomberg Business Week. Joining us now is Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week.

He joins us on the remote access line. Jeremy keene is Features editor for Bloomberg Business Week, on the phone from New York City. Joel, Uh, this is a wild, wild story. It involves Steve Bannon, uh, some legal issues as well. First of all, who is Tommy Fisher? So Tommy Fisher is a builder, and the story really is an amazing one, uh, in part because it just shows this entrepreneurial spirit that that Tommy Fisher has. Um. He has basically managed to build three miles of wall um

in one project. He also had another project, uh that that's longer. But the three million, the three mile one, which he spent thirty million dollars his own money on, is the one that the story really centers on. And he basically did it, and you know it's on spec

and that's the part that sort of amazes me. And I'll bring Jeremy in on that, Like, Jeremy, like, what possessed someone to build a three mile, thirty million dollar wall on spec Yeah, I mean Tommy Fisher is like, that's in North Dakota originally, and he, you know, he's long dreamed of building an epic piece of infrastructure and he's built I believe one of the longest cathedral large bridges out there. Um And but you know, that didn't really bring him the kind of renown he was after.

So you know, when Trump started talking about a wall, he got him full fun. Fisher got himself on Fox News and kind of got his name out there and ended up hooking up with Steve Bannon and Brian Cole flags We Build the Wall organization. They built one quick, small wall and then came to this project and just as the money was starting to come in for it, Mr Bannon and Mr Caulflage run into some legal issues that you know around that around that same year that

fort To scuttled the project. So Fisher said, well, I'm gonna keep doing the wall and struct him deals with Texas landovers put what he says is thirty million bucks into it, and off he went, Yeah, it's I feel like this is a story to some extent of a wall, a builder, a radio host, the journalist. Like I love the way he's told and how it unfolds. Um, what's you know? I always wonder about the pitch that you guys got for this story. Um, Joel, what can you

tell us about? I mean, obviously we've all been obsessed with this ball. We know the President was obsessed with this wall. I think we were all a little surprised that there was to find that there was some that was built. But then you've got this guy who wants to like sell it. You know. I think that the element um that really drew us in, uh when when Simon um pitched it to us, is this idea that I mean, I did not know that Tommy Fisher existed.

I didn't know that he had built a wall, you know, like you know literally and like the feat that he was able to accomplish here worked is worth discussing a little bit, which is, you know, there's plenty of wall that's already been built, and President Trump rebuilt a lot of existing wall. What what he What Fisher's accomplished here was to actually put three miles of wall on private land in Texas, which is really this is along the Rio Grand which will probably talk about a little bit

more here in a second. In doing so and accomplishing this on private land, that has always been the thing that sort of anybody who wanted to build a wall couldn't quite figure out a way to do it. And so the fact that he was able to crack it, um is why I think as he got you know, part of his pitch here is and I think he's looking at the state of Texas at this point because Governor Abbott there is seems to be the one who's

willing to probably do something um. But but the fact that he was able to do this on private land and on a river is sort of I think there's a little bit more discussion, and Jerry want why don't you talk about that, because the fact that he was able to do this so close to the river is actually like where a lot of the controversy stems from. Right. So,

you know, Simon was curious about this part. You don't really began with his curiosity about all this talk about walls and whether they work and that kind of thing. And so he went down there and got the Big four and you know, one of the things he drove

around with some of some of fisher subcontract actors. The Fisher talked to some next border agents, talked to residents, talk to people who really opposed the wall, and um, you know, one of the things that's really unusual about it is where there's federal wall in Texas, it tends to be built quite a ways away from the actual border. There the Rio Grand and the Rio Grand Valley, and

that's because it's privately held land. Fisher struck all these deals with private landowners, managed to build the wall where there's only you know, a few hundred feet or something like that separating the wall from the actual border. And that you know, the border patrol guys sort of say that's made it a little easier to patrol that one three mile stretch. Um. As the cover shows you, you know, you can literally walk around it if once you reach the end of it. Um. But um, you know that.

What what ended up happening though, is you know, uh, Fisher got sued lawsuits that these that he's contesting, um, the National Butterfly Center, who you know, sort of claiming that um, that that there was going to be sort of mental damage caused by flooding. Um if you know, in the event of heavy rain. Because of the way

the wall was built. Um and uh, the US government actually ironically launched a suit, the Boundary and Water Commission, because it argued that that it's illegal to actually move the border in a physical sense, and they argued that the wall itself could displace the borderline because the river would get, would get the banks would change like that kind of thing. And so, um, yeah, it's created. I mean,

you know, there's a lot of controversy over that. There's controversy over whether it's actually going to accomplish the thing that you know, all the pass governments have tried to accomplish and building border wall elsewhere. Hey, Jeremy, where does Steve Bannon come into all of this? And the foundation that he started with brand Cole Fedge, Right, so we

built the wall. They were these guys who basically were just like, well, you know, it's so hard to get it all done federally, then then just get down there and funded and they got they got people to fund it. You know, I think Simon puts it that it's ordinary cable news watching types, and you know, they they got donations, um based on um just based on this call through

Fox News and that kind of thing. Um. But then in August um the US, the Turns Office and some just New York indicted Ben and a couple of other figures from the group, saying that they had enriched themselves with with money that they stored donors for the wall constructed. And so that's where Fisher kind of picked it up, and you know what ended up happenings and the other defendants. We did not guilty, Ben and had we did not guilty,

and then he got this pardon from that. Well, there is a lot to this story, including you'll learn about form and Mike was kicked off the site. But you're gonna have to read the story. Check it out in the new issue of Bloomberg business Week Magazines, also online on the Bloomberg terminal our thanks to Jeremy Keen, Features editor, Bloomberg Business Week on the phone in New York, kill Webber, our editor here at Bloomberg Business Week on the access

line in Brooklyn. It's not actually a wall to its offense. It's offense, but there's so yeah, so boarder agents can actually see through it and see what's going on the other side exactly. All right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Call Master Tim Stanovic. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. As we mentioned earlier, a wait what moment for us all today? As a chip bell

Weather this week warned about semi demand peaking. Yes, you heard it right, and it's the wait what is because Tim, we've been talking so much about chips shortages, right, and chip shortage is affecting everything from cars to refrigerator smartphones. Yeah, so let's get into it making sense of it all, as he always does for us when it comes to anything on the semi conductor industry. In King he is u S semi Conductor and Networking reporter here at Bloomberg News. Uh,

and he is in our San Francisco Up. You're in help get us some chips we have and you understand the cycle. So what's going on here? Yeah? I mean the underlining, the underlying concern is the issue here today. That's why Texas Instrument stock is down more than five percent. That's why the Philadelphia semi Conductor index is down and it's not a case of all things went terribly wrong. T I did not say that. What they didn't do was come out and some their chest and talk about

a path of things getting more wonderful. What analysts and investors look for is when a company like t I post revenue increase in the quarter, is this the peak? Is this? It is this as good as it gets? And they pested and pested t I about this, and t I were like, look, it is what it is. You know, we're not going to help you out here one way or the other. We're just going to run our company as best we can. And the numbers that they gave for the current quarter again not terrible, but

maybe only a twenty increases quarter. So the sort of derivative argument from that is maybe we've peaked. So they didn't actually say we may be peaked, it's just what they didn't say. Basically, Yeah, I mean t I are a very conservative matachment team. You know, they focus on cash returns and and really don't get into discussing the details of what's going on in end markets and things

like that. They in fact actively avoid doing that, and so that lack of willingness to share information and give granuality sort of feeds into this kind of feeding frenzy that we saw on their ownies call where analysts who you know are looking for investors for investors and looking to call a peak on you know, a bunch of stocks that have gone up very high, started to get concerned.

What do we know about companies potentially hoarding chips because they're concerned about supplies and how that could be playing

into this. Yeah, I mean, that's an excellent question. That is the derivative here is that you know, when you look at such a rapid run up, the concern always is that companies that couldn't get enough ordered twice as much as they need, right because why wouldn't write just to make sure that they can get enough um And then when they get more than natally, that either goes into inventory or they stop ordering completely. And this is

typically what has happened in the past. We've seen these kind of steep spikes followed always by a very rapid downturn. There's a lot of people out there of arguing, oh, no, this time is different. But I think the people who've been looking for a long time to say, well, that will never be the case. But that's what happens in

this industry. You've you've been great and coming on our area in and talking about how this industry operates, and there tends to be right, these these booms and busts, and there are lead times, right that that's why you get these disconnections. Yeah, now that's absolutely it. I mean, to be fair, we're going to hear from Intel in about an hour and intil cee or girl thinking he's been out one of the leading voices saying, look now,

actually kind of a different this time. We can see sustained above average growth because there are so many new things that need tips that never did before, vehicles being just one example. UM, and therefore we're going to see sustained demand in a way that we're not going to get the crashes like when we just depended on computers and smartphones for all of our revenue. But as a CFO of Texas Instruments told us, that's a dangerous thing to say, well, just real quickly though, is he right?

And you've been following I mean, who am I? Who are any of us to question the Intel CEO? But you also have been following this industry and understanding how there are more chips in our world pretty much in everything that we do. It feels like is he right? Though? Well, I think that the middle ground would be to say that perhaps the diversity to the industry now enjoys compared to the past, with perhaps cushion some of the amplitude. But at the same time, can we expect the company's

revenues to be going up at quarter thing? It's difficult to argue that that is sustainable. So what would you be looking for with Intel learnings today? What are you gonna keep your eye on? Yeah, I mean Intel is a different case, right. Intel has basically got problems of its own making. So Girlsing of the new CEO, has come out and said, look, I'm going to sort this out. I'm going to get back you know, our leadership and technology.

But investors have said, oh great, we like this. But then I thought, oh, I actually no, it's gonna cost a lot of money, is going to take a lot of time. So we'll be looking at how that impact their margins, how that impacts their growth rates. And remember world's largest chip maker is the only large chip maker that's going to actually shrink this year according to estimates. Jeez and then mean while I mean if it's something

like yeah, then there's everybody else. I mean when I don't know if T s MC came out and said this, or is there one other company that could also come out and say something that would make you say, We'll

wait a minute, maybe there is something different. Definitively, I think you know the the details are, you know the devils in the details here because a lot of companies, you know, don't know exactly when what they sell is going to be used there right at the back of the supply chain, which is what the CFO of Texts Instruments said here. So if we see inventory start to creep up, if we see order rates start to slow, then then it's usually those are the signs of the

tipping point is coming. Can you just go through some of the other products that we use each and every day, apart from cars and refrigerators that we talk about, that has diversified the revenue streams for these companies we have about thirty seconds. There's a chip in my brain just wish. I mean, it's actually easy, you know, I think it's easier to name something that doesn't SETI conductor in these days. I mean everything that's to do with your automate the

automation of your daily life. But even things as esoteric as pieces of factory equipment and now being connected to the Internet and now being using AI processing to make them more efficient. It really, you know, there's been a blossoming abuse of these things. They're so amazing. I thank you so much, really appreciate it. Uh. Ian King. He is, of course our u S Semiconductor and Networking report at Bloomberg News, joining us from our San Francisco bureau. Check

him out on Twitter at Ian M. King. But it'll be it'll be big reports. Yeah, until after the bell today. We had Texas Instruments yesterday. Uh. And next week, Carol, is the big week for earnings. Yeah. I mean these two weeks are like killers. This weekend, You're right, next week is a really really big one. Uh. And hearing from a wide swath of companies road journal now, but you let me drive, no, no, no, no, night please, I'll do the right I want to drive. Drive good questions,

drive to the globe community. Thanks, We'll try us. Dawn on Bloomberg Radio, we just got about ten and a half minutes left in today's Wow Flies how quick that came out? Exactly all right, a few days and suddenly it's the market clothes. Wait, wait, wait that happened. Let's get to it. Drive to the Close with Matt Forrester, director and chief investment office for Lockwood Investment at B and Y. Melon's pershing Matt with us on the phone from Pennsylvania again, Hey, Matt, how are you hi, Carol?

How are you doing well? Doing well? Interesting week? You know, sell off, some nervousness in the market on Monday, worried about the delta variant, worried about slowing or peak economic growth. And then Tuesday happens and it's like Monday never happened. And then Wednesday happened and it's like, really, Monday never happened. And then there was today where markets were kind of

struggling to find some definitive direction. Feels like we have a little bit more of it right now, but I'm almost wondering, are we already counting down to you the deluge of earnings next week? And then that said meeting, Well, sure, it's not really too surprising to see confusion and cross currents. And this week as the markets hit these transition points to slower growth and you know, potential policy changes as we go through the year. Obviously, the delta and lambda

question is something that will definitely have to face. I think probably will come up with the markets again. Um And just in terms of rates, right, we've seen you know, a real decline and interest rates that's continued even while we've had the equity markets rebounding from where we were Monday. But it's just important to remember that the US interest rates are more sensitive to the global picture than um

maybe just the US economic picture. So um, not to surprise you see, you know, rates good client as we see countries like Australia in fifty percent lockdown. So there's still a lot going on as the globe tries to recover from COVID. So we're obviously, I mean, I think for so many Arikins, they thought that we were on the other side of this, especially if they've been vaccinated. And now we see what's happening here in the US with the delta variant and also what's happening around the world.

It's it's not the case. Do you think markets are are are taking that into account. We kind of saw that happen on on Monday, but that's like way in the rear view mirror at this point, Matt, with the what's that I thought, I think most market straps just felt that COVID was kind of behind that and and

suddenly we get this resurgence on Monday. I do think there's a lot of questions about how the markets were technically set up, uh for you know, some kind of correction on Monday, and just needed an excuse to uh,

you know, make some temporary market corrections. But you know, it's all in the rear view mirror, and it's in the rear view mirror to an extent because we've had these kind of surging forward EPs estimates, um, you know, and that's occurring at a time when you know a lot of economists are really looking for deceleration as we get into the next couple of quarters of growth. So um, you know. It does raise the question of whether analysts are getting a little too optimistic about what they see

and forward earnings coming. But it still seems like the recovery is very much intact, and it's going to be a deceleration from higher growth rates to lower growth rates, which is not all that bad requity market, I guess the big question is right, um, you know, Matt, when we think about it, is how much of the bounce back that we've seen is just getting back to where we were pre pandemic. How much of it is also taking into account of expectations of even more growth to

come the rest of the year. I guess that's where we have to what we have to think about in terms of valuations. Yeah, for sure. And you know, things like other things that have happened today which are the most interesting acting today was actually in the commodity pit. You know, where we see coffee at a six year high, um, and you know coal at a fifty two week high. We see you know, lumber kind of bouncing back off the bottles had a tremendous decline and where lumber has

been implied take a long time for its recover. But um, you know, all on supply issues, whether that's resilient frosts or um drop in European wind power, or forest fires and count of all these things that are related to climate have been affecting the supply side. But it doesn't

help the inflation story. And so you know, it does raise questions about you know, what is transitory and what does that mean for markets and and our markets aligned differently to the word transitory than the FED maybe, And I think that's maybe the most important question is you know, we've heard some economists and some of the policy makers say they think it's going to be a couple of months, and I'm not so sure that that's the right expectation.

Maybe it's going to be longer than that, given some of these other concerns to pricings. Okay, well, I want to get to the FED in just a minute, because we are of course going to hear from F. J. J. Powell next week. Uh. Time flies. Like I said, it's surprising that we're hearing from him again. I do wonder though about earnings, because we're smacked ab in the middle of it. Next week is gonna be huge. Earnings This week is pretty big. After the bell, we expect to

hear from Intel, Snap, Twitter, Boston Beer, among others. Um, what have you learned thus far expectations. Are you seeing companies deliver earning, deliver results that are justifying these valuations. Yes, so far. I think that's the story, and I think that's why markets have rebounded. And um, you know, I think we're getting to a place where earnings are going to matter more for markets. So you know, we've seen over the last couple of quarters companies meet elevated expectations

and stocks weren't necessarily rewarded for that. UM, And now I think there's more of a delineation between companies that are doing well that aren't. I've seeing some tech companies kind of disappoint a little today and they're actually getting hit in the market a little more than others would.

So UM, I think earnings are going to start to matter, and I think the forward expectations are really going to start to matter because we absolutely need to see, um, the earnings come through to justify these really high valuations and stocks, and particularly for some of the market leaders. Is it likely we're going to have some kind of taper tantrum or I mean, the fetes got and pretty wise about managing expectations and spoon feeding changes in policy,

and we have to spoon feeding. It sounds like babies meet the investor of the Toddler um. But it's but you know, at some point we want that to happen. It's a reminder that things are getting back to normal, that the economy can manage on its own. That's a good thing. Yeah, Well, there's no way that their neutral policy rader, this concept of our stars anywhere near their policy rate is today. Um, so we're gonna have to

begin that adjustment. I think any FED communications period that we see from here, you know, into the fall, is going to start setting the measure for what we can expect the FED to do at some point in time. And I think they're going to take their time, and because they're worried about a repeat of what happened in May, where we had an eighty five basis point backed up in real interest rates and really set virtually all assets class on their head for a while about six weeks.

And unfortunately, right now we're positioned rather poorly for that, and we have these incredibly negative real interest rates across the entire US indust rate complex. So, uh, you know, I think that's gonna be a challenging adjustment for markets, and we could see, you know, a significant adjustment when this paper actually occurs. Predictions for the end of the year, we're gonna see a sell off in the second quarter, I mean in the third and the third quarter, fourth quarter,

second half of the year. We're so overdue for you know, some kind of a pullback in equity markets, particularly um you know, you know the average trail down in an equity any years four and we haven't gotten anything close to that this year. So I think you almost always have to have that expectation in the back of your mind, and you have to remember that we're going into the typical kind of August seasonals which are not particularly favorable

favorable for markets. So um, I think it's a base case expectation they have to be ready for some volatility as we go into the ball um trickles, all these issues around the said policy and policy adjustments. Me up, right, Matt, We've seen this movie before, right. We see some sell offen the summer, we see a run up, we see a little bit of a pullback or maybe even a true correction, and then we kind of resume the move upward into the later you know months of the year.

So we'll see what happens. Hey, Matt, thank you so much. Matt Forrester. He's director and chief investment officer for Lockwood Investment at B and Y Melon's pershing. He is with us on the phone in Pennsylvania. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News