Using Existing Drugs to Treat COVID-19

Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. It's gonna be a big week. It's gonna be a big week in the markets.

It's gonna be a big week for earnings. Let's understand where we are on this Monday by setting the Business Week agenda with Gina Martin Adams, chief Equity Strategies for Bloombery Intelligence on the phone from New Jersey, along with Dave Wilson, Stocks Editor, author of the Chart and Stock of the Day. He also joins us from New Jersey. Gina, I want to start with, you set the table. This is a big week. It is. As a matter of fact,

it's the second biggest week of earnings. The biggest week of earnings will be next week, but this is the second biggest week of earnings. We've got roughly of the market cap of the SMPI set to report Microsoft, Intel, and Verizon, or some of the headliners this week. You know, I think that there's a lot of making up to do for somewhat disappointing financials reports. A financials beat generally

beat second quarter earnings last week. Of the companies that have reported earnings so far, I've actually beat expectations, but that wasn't really enough for a market especially sensitive to what's happening with the outlook as estimates moved down. So what I think we need to see this week is some of these big tech names confirmed the optimism embedded in prices and at least confirmed that the outlook for

one is pretty strong for stocks to continue to move higher. Right, we need, Gina, like, give me something, right, Yeah, something other than a modest beat to a horrible second quarter expectation is definitely what the market means. I have to say, because I've had a bunch of conversations every weekend with people in different industries, and there's a lot of pessimism out there, real concerns about what the economic backdrop is.

Dave Coman in on our conversation talked to us a little bit about the trade today because it really is tech driven absolutely. I mean, if you talk about let's say the fanmag stocks or the big six however you want to refer to them, and we're talking Amazon, Apple, Google, their owner, uh, Alphabet, you know, Microsoft, Netflix, Facebook, It's probably out of order, but that's okay. I mean that basically that's it. That's the entire game in those six stocks.

In fact, it really comes down to uh, you know, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet pretty much. I mean it just goes to show you, you know, there's been so much a focus on these larger tech companies and they really are carrying the day at this point. You know, anticipation that they're already are gonna look better than what we're going to see from a whole lot of other companies, for doably,

is part of that. I Mean you'll look at you know, stock indexes and you see, you know, the consumer discretionary group is leading the way, and that's the retailers, but it's all Amazon, you know, That's how it is. And right behind behind them of the tech stocks and you know, communications services, which is Facebook and Alphabet and everything elseide

the eleven main industry groups is lower. So it just goes to show you, you know, how things are are setting up at this point as we await the second quarter results. Yeah, Gina, I don't know. You've seen so many market cycles, you know, you have, you have such great insight. I know. One of the things that everybody's reading on the trammel today's about ned Davis Research kind of changing their tune when it comes uh to the

market outlook and thinking more like changing. I think it was their their bullish really just abandoning their bullish call in US equities. What do you look for? Who do you also like to follow that gives you a good idea of kind of where we go from here? Yeah,

I mean so, I think you do. Look for the rate of change in economic momentum is one of the bigger drivers of potential optimism emerging for stocks going forward, and the fact that really the economic the perception is that the economic momentum is going to stall over the next couple of months, as we have had a renewed spike in infection rate, and that's that's one of the things that certainly is holding back a lot of confidence, a lot of sentiment toward the outlook, and we probably

need to see that remove to get people coming back to equities and mass. But I do think the other side of the story is the FED has reinflated tremendously. There's a pretty reasonable prospect that we're going to get another fiscal policy package out of Europe. We may get another fiscal policy package supporting the U S economy as well in the next couple of weeks, and that's most likely going to surprise these really sort of grim expectations

to the upside because it is liquidity. It is money, um that's going to help support the economies directly in some way, shape or form. Maybe it's not the most efficient money, but it is money, uh, And I think you do need to price that in. I mean, I take the point that Fang is driving a lot of gains. I mean, we look at the Big five and column Fang of FAMIG sorry, and you do see that those valuations relative to the rest of the SMP are extremely high. However,

this is not just the U S story. This is something we wrote about last week too. If you look at that the big tech ducts in China, the gap they're in valuations is even bigger than the big tech gap here in the US. So this is a global phenomenon. This is a global tech concentration that I do think is somewhat at risk, but nonetheless it keeps defying every but every skeptics expectations that continue to continue to go. Yeah, and just to clarify, bat we're talking about bay Do

Ali Baba and ten cent. Correct, that's correct. Yeah, there you go an exactly. Thank you so much, Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Strategies for Bluework Intelligence from New Jersey, as was Dave Wilson, Stock editor for Bluework Well. The cet Athlete stands for COVID nineteen Early Treatment and FUN. Founded by entrepreneur and philanthropist Steve Kirsch this year mid the pandemic. The FUN recruits physicians, scientists, epidemiologists to work on repurposing

drugs to treat the virus. So interesting, especially on a day when we got some more news about a vaccine specifically, let's bring in Dr Lisa Danzig. She's focused on infectious disease. She spent over eighteen years at Novards Vaccines and Diagnostics. She's the chief medical Advisor at c et F and she's on the phone from San Francisco. Dr Danzig, it is so great to have you here on Bloomberg Radio

with Jason and myself. Tell us a little bit more about this fun it's a new thing, right, but tell us about the group that are involved and the pursuit that you are all after. Well, Carol and Jason, thank you so much for having me on and and thank you for your coverage of this really important outbreak. The COVID nineteen Early Treatment Fund was created to address the critical gap in our global COVID response, and that is to fund clinical trials of repurpose drugs that could lead

to effect of early treatments for COVID. And so how do you identify those We have a scientific advisory board UM. One of the things that UM, Steve Kersh, who founded this organization, is a tech entrepreneur and he's very fast moving, results oriented, but he's not a stranger to philanthropy in the healthcare area, and the first thing he did was assembled really a world class scientific advisory board and got the word out for funding requests. So he has over

forty proposals. They've all been qualified, they've all been reviewed, they've all been prioritized, and all we need now is another twenty million dollars to get the most promising nine trials up and off the ground too rapidly get information on which of these may be most promising. Dr Denson, where does this fit within the grand pursuit of a vaccine and treatments overall? Because I do think, Jason, I've had a lot of conversations that we all understand that

right now there needs to be global coordinations. So your efforts certainly sounds interesting and promising, But how does it fit into that global pursuit to make sure that you're not kind of repeating something that somebody else is going after. Yeah, this is a highly coordinated effort. There's there's some mad rush. There were three important papers on the list of repurposing. You need a little bit of duplication and science, but

certainly not a lot of redundancy. Many look to a vaccine is the best hope for recovery, but we need tools, we need we need treatments and tools. And this disease is so unique because we don't just need anti virals. We also need immune modulators, and we also need rescue agents and strategies when when people are in advanced stages of this disease. So you know, because of the three different types of therapeutic modalities that we need for early, moderate,

and late disease, we need mousive parallel efforts. And so what are some of the early findings in terms of either identifying some promising potentials or how should we as candidly like regular people be thinking about this in terms of what the because we're all looking for some optimism, some ray of hope here, Um, give us some if you can. Yeah, well, we're looking for the early yes, in the early no. But the four c ETSD funded a hydroxy clorquine study that gave an early no. We're

looking for the early yes. There a number of interfer on LAMBA studies and rolling right now. There's one at Stanford. It's more than halfway through the DSMB. Halfway Um said, safety looks good, you should continue. If it didn't look good, we would have not continued. So so that's encouraging. We

got to get these trials enrolled well. And what's well, what's interesting too is and this is I think you know, Jason and I have talked to a lot of individuals, um including just last week we're talking to the CEO of a NOVA and we've all been talking to the folks at Maderna. You know, UM about the pursuit of a vaccine. But it's a vaccine, but as you said, we're gonna need treatments, not just the anti virals. We're gonna need treatments that can take care of people at

different stages of the virus to prevent them from dying. Ultimately. That's what this is about. It's about both. So you know, the idea of an early anti viral, if you can prevent the second I get a positive test early symptoms, then you know, maybe we can prevent with an anti viral the late stage immunological complications that that wind up causing all the severe morbidity and um and require different

kinds of therapies. So there are a lot of approaches and anti viral there are a lot of approaches and immune modulators, things like interfere on things like I L six inhibitors. There are immune signaling pathways that are being evaluated for which there's encouraging results. People are looking at repurposing screens to see if some drugs on the shelf somehow inhibit the pathway, like dux dass and the alpha blocker is is um has uh reducis catacholamy. So there's

all sorts of really good work. The problem is there's um. There's nine two potential agents that we could look at, and so we're not going to get the data. We need a rapid screen of yes or no to help our ecosystem of drug manufacturers and accelerators in our network of larger trials to know which drugs are promising, which ones to accelerate, and which ones don't have a signal that maybe we need to rotate out of them. Let's

get back to our conversation with Lisa Danzigg. She is the Chief Medical Advisor for the COVID nineteen Early Treatment Fund c et F. Joinning is on the phone from San Francisco. So Lisa, I want to jump ahead a little bit just because I want to make sure that Carol and I understand there's at least I understand. I'm sure Carol already gets it. But you know this all this work, what happens next? You know, quick yesses, quick nos.

You find something that works or a combination of things that work, how does it sort of get out to the public. What's the means of distribution here? Right? That's a great question, especially for it shows the beauty of the approach for repurpose drugs. In drug development, you've got to manufacturer in vaccine, were massively um uh, proceeding with this perile effort to manufacture the vaccine before we even

know it works. The beauty of the repurpose drugs is many of the things that we're testing are already in manufacturing, are already able to be used. So the barrier to scale up and distribution are really limited by the information does it work or not? Uh. There are a lot

of groups. There's the NIH, there's a number of global adaptive trials where additional follow up or confirmatory testing can be So the first thing would be getting into broader trials, and then the second would be working with the generic manufacturers on their supply chain and their distribution. But it's a much faster process. Lisa, how why is it so important to focus on this kind of research that you guys are doing, I guess treatment research right as opposed

to just working on a vaccine. And I do wonder what role the federal government, which has given money to teams that are working specifically on a vaccine, what role the government needs to have in this, because I think we as a society need to understand, you know, like you said, we need a vaccine, but we also need these treatments, Like how important this component is to really get in control here? Well, this is a critical component. I asked myself the same question in January as I

saw this unrolling. I'm a vaccine developer and sitting on the sidelines saying, you know, how do I follow this? I'm following what I know, which is drugs diagnostics and um vaccine development. And I didn't see the response. This should there should this should be part of a coordinated global and a coordinated federal response, and I didn't see it happening. And you know, we don't have time to wait.

And this grassroots effort um that people like me are self activating, we're joining, we're teeming all of the investigators that are submitting trials don't have a bias to the product that they're submitting. They want to work together. So we're really creating a global collaborative network to deal with the disease that we've never seen before, and we're just beginning to understand. But how does something like ramdesvie or hydro hydroxy chloroquine kind of get attention, right, that's a

treatment modality. How do they get attention versus some of the other things that you guys are working on that maybe or not there. That's a good question. I'm gonna I'm not a media person. Obviously, they were there first and they're they're they they got amplified. And I think the point that I'm bringing is there are a lot of other places to look hydroxy chloroquine. The datas and the data is mixed at best. We've got a bunch of negative data, We've got some safety concerns. Let's bring

some other things in Q. Let's get as excited. There's two and some clinical try else for hypodroxy chloroquine. Let's convert some of them and if somebody wants to look at our trials, we've got treat early dot org. There are three ways people can get involved, they can donate, participate UM, which means find a trial that's running in case you want to enroll, are able to enroll, or apply for funding. Is it just lastly, just thirty seconds? Are there any any treatments out there that you think

should be on our radar? UM watching Uh the pig ladd interfere in Lambda trial which is running at a number of sites. We're watching Favo pier of here, which is nanti influimsa drug licensed in Japan that's being used in China and Russia for UM UH for COVID camistat is um an anti. It's a drug licensed in Japan for pancreatitis and it's thought to inhibit an enzyme that's required to activate the spike protein to enter the cell. And uh, you know, we're looking at monoclon al antibodies.

There's there's a there's a long list go to treat treat early dot org. All right, well, we really appreciate it to let us know how stuff is going. Yeah, keep us posted. UM, we really appreciate your work. Chief Medical adviser for the COVID nineteen Early Treatment Fund, joining us on the phone from San Francisco, I have to say. I mean, when I get sort of despondent about everything that's going on, I do think about all the scientists

who are mobilizing around this. I think it's arguably, inarguably in a way that they've never mobilized on anything before. And we're all gonna have to play a role because they do have to do testing. There's going to have to be human trials in order to get it up and running. You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Jason Kelly and Carol Master here with you on a Monday afternoon. Got a word for you, Yes, awkward Yeah Oko taco. As the kids would say, Um, this is a fantastic story.

I couldn't get enough of it as I was reading it this morning. Sherena Rajan wrote it a great quarter for Wall Street comes at a very awkward time, as Carol just said. He joins us on the phone from New York City. Bloombergs Week editor Joel Webber. He joins this from Massachusetts. Joel talked to me about this. I mean this, I feel like they're there are these times that said this on this program before we're like Bloomberg Markets. Joel and Bloomberg Business Week, Joel sort of collide and

it shows up in the magazine and I love it. Well. I've been, uh, I think we've been We've been begging three uh to write stuff for the magazine, uh for for years and and uh, you know, I finally got

him his attention. UM. No, I'm joking, UM, but it was I think in really interesting week last week UM on Wall Street, UM, as all the banks reported their earnings, and you know, basically it was just like one day, one day, one day, next day, next day, next day, and we just saw this you know, constant trickle of news. And by the end of the week, I was just like, I I just kind of want something to step back and and write about the this moment, because you know,

you guys did at the top. It's like it's been. It's sort of an awkward one where the trading revenue, which is something that had just basically disappeared, uh, came back big time. But it was also a really awkward time for that to happen while everyone else has to sort of look on and and is not maybe having as good of a life right now. UM. So three where did you Where did you guys take that story?

I mean, it really takes from your point, Joe, you have to think about the side that trading revenue truly had disappeared over the last ten years, to the extent that it wasn't the same engine driving wall streets power presence and their revenues and their profit numbers. Because volatility had gone away, the markets were sort of hoh home and and you were sort of along for the ride

but not really making a killing. That changed, and that changed, and remember all these trading death bosses, all these trading that streets have been begging you, praying to have bad a bout of volatility returned to the market so that they can show when there's heightened level of risk. When there's volumes link surned our left, right and center, you can make big money. Especially if you take some risk,

you you stand to re big gains. But the problem is when this number has come through Goldman SAX second best revenue ever in its history, JP Morgan highest revenue ever, Morgan Stanley highest revenue and the highest profitability ever. But can you imagine a worse time to be able to talk about it, because you're talking about the broader economy

where a lot of people are struggling. So this perception of world streets biggest investment bank making a killing, that perception at a time when everyone else is writing a tough economy makes it. I mean, that's the main reason

we're really calling it a knock one. And the number show at forty five billion for the top five investment numbers we've never heard of in quite a while, and yet for it to come right now, it does make every one a little back both on Wall Street right, sree, thank god they didn't cause the crisis, right, they didn't cause the pandemic. That's at least one thing on their side.

And that's and that's the whole weird part here, right, And when it comes across when you talk to a lot of the Wall Street executives, I mean, we pointed out as soon as their earnings came out, there were some analysts who came out, the one analysts who came out and said the government numbers of frankly indecent, force

more political action to come down the pike. And the people we spoke to said, that's unsaid, because perhaps you could make an argument for the two thousand eights global financial crisis that banks did play an integral part in bringing them the global economy. But you really can't make the case here the virus was not birth and the bank trading people they are they have just benefited from the actions taken by the thread to probably economy from

from the massive surgeon voluces the massive surgeon volume. Uh. And they have been able to write that way perfectly. Well, however, that is not consolation enough for those on the outside. And you can truly understand why those on the outside of frustrators because for them, whether it's a recession or not, wal Street always wins. When they see the narrative Walter Street winning, they see it as wal Trade winning again.

And that's the problem that Well, I think one thing that's interesting those three and and this is certainly true and the earnings calls uh. And something that you bring in this story too is that, yeah, well, while this was maybe a pretty good quarter by the numbers, uh, there's no there's no indication that this can they can keep it up either, right, And even the CEOs and whatnot have indicated as much. Um, So what is what is it? What is the future potentially look like here?

For for the banks? Jamie dimond is Jamie Diamond is much better position than any of us. I get sort of give us a set of what it could look like. He's actually saying, we could see trading revenues dropped by back, or at least the volume and walacility and everything that could lead to business and activity dropped by about for the second half of the year. That is doing extent on sendable the crazy levels that we saw in March

April May. It is incredibly hard to imagine how that's sustainable. However, take a step back and think about the second half of twenty twenty that we're walking into. Think about the American elections, think about you know, the various directions that pandemic and still they think about all the geo political flash points across the world. It's hard to imagine that you're going into a second half of twenty that will be for Did it will? I don't think anyone can

call it a hump. And if it's not going to be whole hump, you can still expect the trading death to make a killing and tree. So is this mostly about raised eyebrows or is there something more? Is this catching the attention of Washington? You quote one member of Congress making a comment about it. But is this the sort of thing that could catch fire during the campaign as specially if Joe Biden continues to gain steam here.

That's that's that's the unknown here, right, which is you're you're going your your hundred and five days away from another pivotal election in the United States. When you see numbers like this is coming out of World Street, and when you see the struggles in on main Street on the broader economy, I cannot imagine any politician not wanting to jump on the band and go go to the match and say, hey, look, this system is fact. This system is rigged. It is not helping ordinary people. It

isn't helping those who are already comfortable. So you have it would be a safe bet to think that people will capitalize on it and make it a talking point. Yeah, I feel like it doesn't help that these guys are still considered banks when they really aren't traditional banks. I feel like, you know what I mean, because I think banks are meant to help more of their communities and help but they're but they're really Wall Street and that's why they get to play, you know, and volatility helps

them on the trading desks. It's a great story. Check it out that story on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com. She Nataraje and financial porter at Bloomberg News, jointing us on the phone in New York City. Jill Webber, editor Bloomberg Business Week, on the phone from Massachusetts. But you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. In his latest Economy In his latest column, excuse me, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial director Andy Brown points out something that was written recently

in a Financial Times column. It's about how to be in Washington is to sense a nation sliding into open ended conflict against China with early little debate. I'm quoting from Andy's story. So we've got a few things to unpack here. And joining us as he does every week, Andy Brown on the phone in New Hampshire. There is a lot going on when it and whenever you talk about us in China. Tell us, though, Andy, why you

highlighted UM specifically h this Financial Times column. Yeah, it just it just means that UM, both parties and both candidates in the election, uh, sort of in the in the in the absence of anything that looks like a nuanced balanced approach towards China, are just trying to outcompete

each other on being tough. And you know the latest example of this is this idea that the White House has floated this trial balloon to ban all ninety million members of Communist Party from traveling to the United States and their families. So we're talking about you know, three hundred million people, potentially quarter of the population of China. UM. And you know, in the this kind of this kind

of escalation UM is really incredibly dangerous. I mean, the only impact of a directive like that, were it ever to be implemented, would essentially be the halt all interchange between the United States and China. I mean, number one, it would prevent Ji Jim paying the Chinese president from ever traveling to China. You couldn't have trade talks because pretty much all of the members the Chinese trade negotiating team are also members of the Chinese Communist Party, as

are many academics UM. And the question is, you know, they're the practical questions. I mean, since the Chinese Communist body doesn't actually publish a list of its members, it's hard to know how how on earth you would implement it. I mean it's about as broad and sweeping as sort of a ban on all Muslims or something like that, which were ideas floated very very early on. And so the columnist is sort of saying, look, you know, we we need to have an intelligent conversation about where we're

going in all this. Is this what we really want? Do we want an open ended confrontation with China which could ultimately lead to war? If that's where we're going, that we should have that. We should tell the American public what this is going to mean. This is going to mean big national you know, uh uh sacrifice, It's gonna it's gonna have a massive cost on the economy. Are you ready for all this? So? Andy, I do want to ask you, because you're so good at giving

this perspective to us, flip this around. If you're sitting in China and as a Chinese national, how are you viewing what's going on here at this moment? Well? I think what's just what? What The view from Beijing is very much that, um, the West is out to uncertainly, the United States is out to throttle us. Um Uh, They're not interested in engagement anymore. They look at these increasingly hostile UM policy initiatives or trial balloons coming out

of Washington. UM. And they're asking themselves, they're they're hunkering down for a long, long term Uh. They think of the worst UM Cold war engagement with the United States. And you're and basically they're saying, we've got to be

We've got to be self reliant. Uh. And so you're exhilarating precisely the trends which ostensibly you're trying to prevent UM I e. You know, if if we're serious about doing trade with China, we want to open their markets, we want greater engagement, we want we want American businesses going over there. We want bankers able to operate freely, brokerages and and and so on. And in fact, what you're doing is driving the Chinese to a position where

they say, actually, this isn't what they want. We just have to we just have to we just have to to go go for autaki. We have to be self reliant. This is this is this is essentially economic war. Well and what's interesting too, as you write in your column, Andy, is you know, voters need to be aware that there are alternative approaches to how we interact with China, and

I think it's an interesting time. I heard somebody over the weekend say to meet Romas romans burning and describing America specifically, and that you know, we're in cry sis. Were preoccupied maybe with some of the wrong things. Meantime, the rest of the world is kind of laying out their big broad strategies, and I do wonder if the American public kind of really understands the gravity of kind of what's going on right now as a result of the administration. Yeah, I mean, you know, the the the

alternative approach that you talk about is pretty simple. If you can't change Chinese behavior, and I think it's very unlikely that you are going to change the drift of Chinese industrial policy. Jumping has concluded that a state let economy such as the one that he's building now in China um is is a necessary political support for the Chinese Communist Party. I don't think you're going to change that behavior. You do what you can do, which has

changed your own behavior. So you get back to this. You know, America needs a policy of national renewal, investment in science and technology, and education and healthcare, all the areas that have been a exposed now by this, by this coronavirus um. So you know what I'm saying in my column is the Chinese look at this, these these these threats from the Trump administration. They probably they probably

dismissed them as as unworkable. They're gonna be looking at, you know, Joe Biden's two trillion dollar stimulus and taking that more seriously. So my point is, why don't we have a competition with China to reinvent the global economy, a sustainable global economy. Right, Let's compete with him on a green initiative. Let's compete with him on tech to create the technologies that will drive innovation, you know, drive sustainable growth in the twenty one cent Right. It's great,

it's a great idea. Um, and everybody should check out Andy's Economy Bloomberg, his column Bloomberg New Economy Director Andy Brown, Colonel. Now, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, I'll do the right drivel. I want to drive all just drive, baby, good questions trying. This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll run on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's hit the Drive to the clothes on this accelerating day. I feel like of Green Carol's I

did see very nicely. But it's pretty remarkable right the momentum it is. Uh So, who better to talk to us about it than j J. Canahan, chief market strategists for TV and Merri Trede joining us on the phone. J J. How the heck are you? It's been a while. Ah, yeah, you're luck ran out. It's so far, so good. How about you, guys? Hope everyone's healthy and happy. We're doing okay, We're doing okay week nineteen, I think from broadcasting from Marver Sspective homes here in New York and New Jersey.

So it's obviously a different world. I think. I think we've talked to you since the pandemic set in, but uh it, I don't think anybody expected it would be this long. And meanwhile, we've got a market that seems to be, by some accounts, kind of defining gravity here, especially when it comes to tech stocks. What are you saying, Well, it's really amazing. You know you guys talk it, talked

about it news flash. Just right there. You see Microsoft, you see Amazon, And what I really find amazing is going into earnings to have h the analysts updates, you know, having upgrades on the stocks right before we go into them. It's it's it's a risky move on their part. You

normally don't see that. But what then concerns me is, even if these are amazing earnings, which obviously everyone expects them to be, can that sort of carry the day after earnings or is it going to be a sort of by the rumor sell the news because the expectations are so high heading into these tech earnings After banks did okay but kind of did what we expected, and

that trading revenues were good and everything else. Uh, you know, when your net interest margin gets squeezed, it was just so so well, what would you do if they're disappointing? Considering the run up, especially some of those big check names. I think it really changes the momentum, Carroll, to be honest with you, um, you know right now, even though as we just got untalked about being to stay at home, trade, etcetera. The I think we have sort of positive momentum that

at some point here will come out of it. Things will resume. I don't want to say as they were, because I don't think they're ever going to be exactly as they were, but in a good way or better way. With that said, if these stocks which we're all relying on to be the leaders, and to their credit they have been, don't meet these expectations, you know, it gives you a little bit of a head scratcher. It's in

a weird way. It's like the technology and the mature technology stocks have become a little bit of the safety play during this whole time. Why is that, Well, is

it just because they're not so kind of? I mean, they have become such a part of our our lives personally, professionally, absolutely, And you know when you see these analysts talking about the fact that like Microsoft or from Platform I'm sorry, had to uh exponentially start performing and all of a sudden, twelve months of development cycles came flying to really quickly,

and with that they didn't have many problems. I think that that really gives people some excitement as to the opportunity there and how quickly other things that really sort of change our lives, if you will, can come up. The other thing is, and we can't forget about the fact that you have a sixty two basis point ten

year yield and it just doesn't excite anybody. So I think people are also saying, Okay, if I'm heading to retimement or whatever it may be, do I want to put a lot of money there, or do I want to try and get capital appreciation from stocks? I trust, you know, some have yields, some don't, but overall they've been solid and that capital appreciation has certainly been much

better than the youth play. Right now, I still am sort of puzzled that and maybe I shouldn't be j j around all things transport here, um, you know, especially as we're talking about business travel Carroll, you know, just basically never coming back to the levels that it was as an investor, How should we be thinking about either the big airline names or even more broadly the hospitality and travel business. Yeah, you know, it's interesting our our

clients really took to them in March and April. I think last time we talked because there was sort of a government's you know, uh nettings there if you will or deck stop. Now that they've they've rarely debate and haven't really perhaps had to take up to the level maybe we thought they would, you know, particularly with what we've heard out of United in American recently. I think that this is a little bit of a riskier investment

at this point. And as we see you know, some restrictions being loosened then put back, Uh, you know, you're really betting on a recovery. What I would say is, if you're if you're investing there right now, I would really think about a longer time frame. A lot of this investment depends upon what's your time frame. If you're doing it for a quick hit, you're taking quite a risk.

If you're saying, you know what, I think in two three years will be back to a level where you know, even international business travel was going again, then that investment makes more sense to me. And I think too often retail traders don't take their time frames that they say it's a long term investment without defining that for short from I think, and particularly now, you have to define that more than ever still when it comes to some of these specific names, um, whether it's a Netflix, whether

it's a Microsoft, whether it's Tesla. Are there any though that really stand out for you that you think should be kind of part of an investor's portfolio at this point? J J. Well, I do think Microsoft is one that you could probably trust, uh if you will, because it's a more mature company, and I think that that's what we're seeing out of our clients, etcetera. Is that with that it's it's a company that you're like, Okay, you know this makes sense when it comes to a stock

like Tesla. Not to woo hoo it, but you know, I like to look at the options market a lot, even if you don't trade options. They give you an idea of what people are pricing in. If you look at Tesla and if you're going to hold it for thirty two calendar days, the implied move right now is almost four hundred and eighty dollars. So when I asked people, if you're gonna buy Tesla, do you have the stomach forward to move? An expected move could be four d eight dollars against you as well as for you. Do

you have the look for that? And I don't think people consider that enough when they go with these types of the US I'll take that as a no. That should not be a standard in your portfolio. It's might be a little bit about j. J. Kennah had great to spend some time with you. Thank you so much, Chief Market strategies for TD. Merrig Tree joining us on

the phone from Chicago. Love when he gets specific and uh, you know, just talks about some of both the trends but also some of the individual names that we all think about all the time. We talk about them all the time on this show, Carol. Yeah, totally, you know. And not all tech should be necessarily grouped together, right, not all tech company are the same, I think, you know. So it's it's a good way, especially when he says, like look at the options market. That gives you a

really good indication of what investors are thinking. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud, Bloomberg dot com, but wherever you get your podcasts, And of course you can always listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News.