Using Digital Health Tools to Fight COVID-19 (Correct)

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio. So as we focus increasingly on testing and tracing to get control of the coronavirus, technology will play a large role and really assessing lots of information. Here to talk about, specifically the digital tools

to fight COVID nineteen is Dr Lane Labrick. He is an infectious disease UH epidemiologist UM and he's very well known when it comes to his work, specifically on applying information and communication technologies. Chair of the World Health Organization's Digital Health Guidelines Development Group. He's also an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, which is of course supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg,

Gulp and Bloomberg Philanthropy. He joins us Dr Lubrieg on the phone from Baltimore. Dr Lubrig, nice to have you here with us. Um, we do hear an awful lot from governors and mayors, health officials about the importance of testing and tracing technology will play a huge role at all of this. Absolutely, thank you for having me, Carol. And you know, it's important to understand that unlike the influenza pandemic of we're living in a world that's more

connected than ever before. They're more cell phones than there are people on the planet. So I think you know, each each of these cell phones has the computing power that's more than what we used to send man to the Moon and the Apollo mission. So if we if we fail to leverage the power of these devices, that that most if not all of the people who are who are living with with through this pandemic are having their kits will really be uh be missing out on

a major, major opportunity. Um. The real question now is is you know, we're we're entering into a phase where it's a bit like the game of whack a mole, right, UH, if we if we're not giving a mallet to whack

the mold down. When each time a case pops up, we need to be able to find out as soon as possible who they may have been in contact with, and the delays around finding out those contacts and trying to shut down the spread of the virus is going to be the difference between success and failure in reopening up the economy and getting out of this pandemic phase. And so in an ideal world, Dr Labrick, how does this work? I mean, how would it look to an

everyday person like me? Carol is not an everyday person, it's an extraordinary person. But for an everyday person like myself, like, how am I interacting with this? So? I think you

know both of your probably extraordinary people. But what we're talking about is having a large proportion of a population downloading UH an app or a series of apps that share a common backbone technology that that basically is on all the time, so that so that in the background it's capturing information, hopefully in a very secure and and UH and protected way, about who we're interacting with on

a daily basis for extended periods of time. Then if if if down the road, someone finds out that they are COVID positive without going through the laborious process of trying to go back and sink through who were all the people that person had contact with over the past week or so, the app should be automatically able to calculate all of the other people who that person was in contact with, because those are of people have the app as well. And I think that's where the challenges, right.

You can imagine if I if I'm standing in a crowd of people and I'm the only one of a hundred people who have that app on their phone, it's not going to do us any good. So so yeah, that's the real challenges is adoption. How do we get as many people as possible as part of our our civic duty to download these applications that will will then allow us to speed up that process of find finding the brush fires and and shutting them down effectively. That's

that's the big challenge I have to say, doctor. Part of me is like, finally we're going to have technology cooperation in our kind of healthcare environment, right because I feel like it's been so slow to happen, and I do wonder if this is the hurdle that really creates some massive systems that makes our health care system more efficient, where the system works better and we benefit as patients. On the other hand, man, what kind of privacy are

we giving up? Yeah, it's absolutely That's that's the million dollar questions, right it's it's um. It's a real difference between UH, collectivists and individualist societies where how much of our privacy are we willing to give up? And who are we willing to allow to monitor this data and and have access to this information? And this is at

the heart of the big debate that's going on right now. UM. Apple and Google recently made a lot of news about launching a system that would allow this data to be captured in an anonymized and secure way, UM without giving control of that data to a centralized authority. And and

that's where a lot of the challenges. The UK has said they're not going to go with that system, and other countries are are struggling through this, and Germany has just said that they will accept that decentralized this them. And what this means is the data is not made

available to the public health authorities. Basically, you as the holder off the app get notified if you have been potentially exposed to some anonymous person who was shedding possibly shedding virus, and so you know, as a public health professional, would I like to have access to that information so I can help those people take care of themselves and I can help make sure they have the best information possible, and I can also track the number of potential cases

in context. That would be the ideal, but I think we have to make some compromises about how much data people are willing to give away versus how many people we can get involved in these systems. Well, let's continue our conversation with Dr Alan labree Key is infectious disease epidemiologists and associate professor at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. And you just heard Charlie mentioned that that school, of course, supported by Mike Bloomberg, the owner

of this radio station. So Dr Labrick, you know, one of the questions that I feel like comes up. And we talked a lot about the privacy aspect to this, but I keep thinking about this notion that we live in the global world and people travel, at least in normal times all over the globe. How does this tracing work globally. It's one thing for like my little town here in you know, the New York suburbs to maybe be able to pull this off, but doing this at

scale seems really hard. Yeah, I mean it's a good question, Jason. I think the there are different tools for different parts of the pandemic problem. The the application for contact tracing that that we've been talking about is really about how do we manage the bulk of the forest fire that

we're dealing with here in the US. And and if as a country tree we can come together and use a technology in a way that's smart, that protects this fundamental human right to privacy that's very important in a democracy UM, and that is that is carefully overseen and in a bipartisan way, in a nonpartisan way, that the personal information is used only to protect public health and

for no other purpose. And and whenever it's possible to de aggregate or de identify data, to aggregate data or to de identify data, UM, so that you know, individual

identity isn't compromised. I think we have to learn from what other countries have done successfully, uh and and try to adapt things that places like Hong Kong or Singapore or South Korea have done with with varying degrees of success, but nonetheless they've they've used the power of technology to get a handle on the the pandemic in their country. So how do we adopt those strategies to the US

is really the critical question at hand. I do wonder to Dr Labrick, if post nine eleven right, I feel like there's a lot of information that we've already shared, um, just because of making sure that we're safe when we get on airlines and airplanes, um, and whether it's through global entry or through two t s A. So I do wonder if we've already jumped over one hurdle and this is just another one that you know, this is the world we're living in and we need to figure

out how to be safe on so many different levels. Is that fair or not? Apples to apples, I think it's it's a choice that that we have to make individually and collectively. I think this kind of access to information or special legal powers that come into play during

public health emergencies is not something that doesn't have precedent. Um. There have been many, many epidemics and and outbreaks of disease in US history, where legal authority has been granted to public health UH systems to to take action and

and protect the public health during an emergency. So I think it's it's important to to convey to the public that these measures are largely temporary, for for the most part um in order for us to be able to control the epidemic and move us into a state of of normalcy, relative normalcy where we can go about our daily lives without the amount of fear and concerns that has been so dominant over the past four to five weeks. So I think I think you hit the nail on

the head. We have to consider how is life going to change permanently and what are some of the emergency temporary measures that we have to take as a country in order for us to get a handle on this virus. Only about thirty seconds left here. How optimistic are you at this moment that we do the right thing. I'm I'm actually quite optimistic. I think we're impatient, but we

need to be more patient and more optimistic. Science science and scientists know for the most part ways to combat this pandemic, and we need to be listening to the voice of reason and the voice of science. All Right, God, I feel better. Yeah, I feel a little better. Yeah, it's a privacy thing. You're a little nervous about a little nervous about that. I have to I have to say there is part of me that's a skeptic in like,

who do I trust with all of this? But you know what, I feel like so much of our information is unfortunately out there already. Yeah, totally, absolutely, Yeah, no, that is that's true. All right. Our thanks to Dr Allen Labrick, so smart infectious disease epidemiologists and Associate professor at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Healthy is also the chair of the World Old Health Organizations Digital

Health Guidelines Development Group. On the front lines in a different way in some sense, in terms of understanding where we go from here. Yeah, on the next stage, I think in terms of dealing with the virus. Who are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Jason Kelly, Carroll Master, Let's talk about the cover story in Bloomberg Business Week this week. It is a tour to force in many ways, and one of these stories that you really just want to

seek your teeth into. And it also tells you a lot about the state of the world, including a little bit on the virus obviously because you can't touch anything without that, but the oil market and specifically the story of excellent Brian Gruley wrote it. He joins us on the phone from Florida, as does Joe Webber, the editor

of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel, you know, it was interesting because you know, we communicate with you about what the cover is going to be, and when you told us and I was like, oh yeah, sort of like put my hands together. I can't wait to get my hands on that. Tell us why now? Well, um, it's It's actually ends up being a pretty important um week for Exxon. They had a divin an announcement that they

made yesterday. They have earnings on Friday. Obviously. The backdrop is the carnage that happened in the oil markets last week, where we saw basically some unprecedented action with oil prices going negative and surplus just being you know, everything that can possibly hold oil anywhere in the world of holding oil right now, all of which leads us to a company that's like basically the west most powerful oil company, and for years this is actually basically the most valuable

company in the world. But as as Brian's story, and to be clearly co wrote it with Kevin Crowley, UM, it makes clear there's basically been a decade of miscalculations that UM has really gotten us to this moment and now comes cheap oil. UM with the wave of coronavirus. UM. Brian, when you guys dug into this, what what kind of miscalculations, UM, did you guys find? You know, essentially Excellent started behaving

less in a less disciplined way. Then it had into you know, the early aughts where you know, they would announce a deal for some acreage or another company, and it was clear to the street, here's how they're going to make money off this in the near term. And so in oh nine they bought a really big natural gas company to get in on shale gas. And I

think gas prices started dropping even before they closed the deal. UM. And they could have gone into shale oil they totally didn't, um be could have made a lot of money then at that time, but they did gas. They got creams uh. Same thing. They went into the oil sands in the Western Canada, very expensive way to get oil out of sand. Essentially it's more like mining than drilling, and that turned out to be sixteen billion dollars spent, not for not

very much. Russia ano they're going to be a great big deal with the old xcen CEO Rex Phillerson, his comrad the Vladimir Putin, envisioning three to five billion dollars in the Arctic, and then Plutin went after Crimea and Obama said, you're not doing business over there anymore XN and that kind of killed that deal. And so it

was going after these great, big, risky deals. And underlying this was to some degree the assumption that we all held for many, many years, decades even that oil is a finite resource and it's gonna run out, We're gonna hit peak oil. And and as as all they were doing all that, that assumption was changing radically because of the technology the navals companies to break into very tight spaces of oil and gas and bring out these huge deposits of oil and gas that just weren't acceptable before.

So we went from uh scarce assumed scarcity to certain abundance. So I have to say, Brian, I feel like you and Kevin have the makings of a book here, and there have been several books written about x because I think you cite um one where they called x M one of the most powerful businesses ever produced by American capitalism. And they have been a company, right, just great, a sign of great corporate America and just have plowed ahead decade after decade. So here we are now, and they're

in a tough spot on a many different levels. Can they plow ahead? Oh? Yeah? I mean, first of all, xcens, you know, they're not going bankrupt or they're not They're not in that kind of trouble. Um. Uh, they have

a reasonably strong balance sheet. Given the circumstances in the market and what's going to happen in oil in the next several months, there is there is a good chance that a lot of the independent, smaller players in the shale fields in West Texas and in North Dakota are just you know, they're not gonna be able to make it, and so they're gonna look to the big boys to buy them out. And you know, the Xcens and Chevrons of the world are not gonna pay them ninety cents

on the dollar. They're gonna buy them on the cheap. So that's gonna be an opportunity for them to buy some assets that they could make you useful on the cheap um. But other than that, you know, some of the investors we spoke with, they're like, so they just keep spending, expending, spending on this betting on this thing that's going to happen five years from now, and you know,

it's like free beer tomorrow. They just keep pushing your back five years and at some point, you know, well the streets already expressed its frustration with that's on um. But there's some opportunity here FLA. I think one of the main challenges Jason just in the and Gerald just in that here and now is is literally just that cost of oil. Right Like, we have a pretty pretty amazing look at what their break even cost is for and it is if I just asked you, what do

you think it would be? Jason, so I I unfortunately I firstually already know it because you told me as we were teeing up the fight. It's sixty right five dollars more than BT ten dollars more than Shell and Chapron. And you just think about where the constant oil is, and it just the dynamics are just moving against them. But like to Brian's point here, like this is a company that they know what they're doing and be they've

missed it a couple of times. And the other thing that we're going to see now is um Texas has proven and the Permian basin has proven to be this really powerful force that can switch it on switch it off. But it's also a place that there's a lot of debt. So somebody like an next Time could come in and actually make some pretty lucrative investments and and you know, perhaps write its ship a little bit. Um. It's a it's an absolute must read. Um. I really was blown

away by the story. It's the cover story this week. And the other great thing is, as we've recently started doing, you can actually hear this story later on in our podcast feed. You'll hear a professional reading. And it's not even us, more professional than us reading the story, but it is in the Bloomberg because this week, uh podcast thanks, you know, more professional than me that, But it's not you.

It's a great no, it's not. And it is a wonderful way to listen to a story because there's so many interesting perspectives facts in there and information about where XN was and where it is today, so definitely check it out. Our thanks to Joel Weber, editor of Business Week, and Brian Grooley, Projects and Investigations reporter at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. This is a conversation. I've really

been looking forward to this guy. I've known for a number of years, followed him and all of his adventures very closely. Steve Paliuca is of course co chairman of Being Capital, also the co owner of the Boston Celtics. Heard of him, he joins us on the phone from Boston. Steve, how are you. I'm great, how are you? We're doing okay, you know what I mean, as best as we can do.

I guess, I guess we've all had better months we have we have indeed, So tell us about Boston and what you're working on, because obviously folks like you sort of rolling up their sleeves and putting together a plan that's what's got to happen, and you're part of a group there, Uh, tell us what you're up to. Well,

this is uh obviously a huge systemic complicated problem. And uh, I've been fortunate to be at Bank Capital involved in healthcare investing, biotech investing for a long period of time. And uh, I've really got a great group of scientists that have pitched in this effort, along with the mass High Tech Council and incredible group with with really smart CEOs.

And so we started a while back trying to think that we're gonna need a back to work plan in the face of COVID because a vaccine will be twelve d eighty months away at best case, and that somebody's gotta start thinking about that. And we had the the expertise and group to put it together, also mckensey consulting teams, so a lot of resources. So we began looking at

that in earnest about three weeks ago. The focus three weeks ago and appropriate focus of the government was really keeping the hospital systems working in a fantastic job of that here in Massachusetts, Charlie Baker and uh we send Governor fleto and in the hospital leadership of an amazing job at that. But we thought we'd we'd try to get a bunch of data and get out ahead of what will happen when we are going back to work, and how do we go back to work to accomplish

two things. One would be we can't have the hospital system overwhelmed again, so steps on how we would not have to be overwhelmed if if this thing's not back. And second, um, how do we have people go back to work safely? And so we focused getting data from all over the world with the best scientists and and uh and and all the resources that we have to put that into a kind of succinct presentation. Hey, Steve, I do wonder too. Okay, you know did you look

at China? Did you look at South Korea? I'm curious some of the conversations that you guys had in trying to figure out how do you do this? Uh? You know the way the way you you do this is trying to segment the problem. It's a it's a huge problem that you can't it's overwhelming if you try to

attack the whole problem. So you segment into those two issues on how do you keep how do you keep the hospitals of the capacity there and how do you really reduce what's called the the are not factor That that's a complicated way of saying the rate of spread

of the virus. UH. And then with with with the resources we have scientists here, great scientists in Massachusetts, UM by Dr Tom Cahill, UH, we we can look over the world for their contexts and everything that's out there and review different papers and different subjects and different things that different countries have used, what the results have been, and then as best we can try to call it that, put put that together and make the best demonstrative practices

to see what can benefit us in Massachusetts. And so Steve, when you look at back to work and and sort of what that's going to look like, so many conversations happening, so much speculation, what's your best guess or what's something that you're pretty confident we're going to be doing that is different from the world before. I'm pretty confident that we'll be wearing masks for for quite a while. Studies across the world are saying that masks are very effective

technique for reducing that are not factor. And right now that aren't a factor for this disease is about two point five, which means it kind of grows exponentially. That's why it's such a problem. UM and and and it obviously has has had a lot of death results in that so it's a it's a very pernicious virus. So I think we'll be seeing masks. I think we'll be

seeing changes in the in the workplace. UM. I think we'll be seeing having to wake up every day and go through a checklist to make sure that that you're not coming to work infected. UM. There's a lot of data out there about a high number of asymptomatic kind of people carrying the disease. Our studies have shown the studies we looked at have a showing that maybe that number is not as big as people think. It's actually that people ignore a slight virus, that they ignore a

slight cough. And in other countries when people put in systems where you wake up, then you have to fill out on a cell phone, do you have a coffee of a virus? What's your temperature? All these indicators that has been very effective to people self diagnosing. So they're actually not asymptomatic, they just have very light symptoms. And and those those folks are symptomatic and ones of light systems have been super spreads because they don't know they

have disease and they're seeing lots of other people. So, uh, your world will change in terms of getting ready for work, your brush your teeth, and then you're gonna have to really go to your cell phone and and and fill out a form that that that that says you self checked. Wow, And no big gatherings. I'm guessing very hard to have big gatherings with with such such an exponential growth rate of this kind of virus. This this just you know, mirrors.

We've talked earlier with Dr Labrick over at Johns Hopkins and that same idea about the role of technology in all of this, that we're going to have to continue to give up some privacy or or let go some of those privacy concerns in order for Steve to get back to a quote unquote more normal way of living. Well. I think that's a really good question, an important point.

All the all the programs that we're looking at, you know, would have a huge privacy component, and it's, uh, it's really a public policy issue of you know, where you draw that line, so to to. It's a tough qual it's it's it's obviously a life and death decision, and you probably will have to quote give up some privacy but hopefully very protected in the governmental um you know, encrypted type form. Uh, you know, there are all sorts

of policy issues. For example, part this virus is really deadly if someone has a comorbidity condition, hypertension, hard issues. And so if you if you if you decide you're not going to come to work, because that's an issue, is that public is not public? You know, how do you do that? How do you ensure those people's safety

if you have a back to work program? Um, it's a it's a it's a tough question, right, that's right, Like your full medical history has to be has to be part of this right because it makes you potentially more vulnerable or does make you more vulnerable in a situation like this. Yeah, we're lucky in Massachusetts in that in that the Governor Baker has a commission and Karen is the kind of governor Plato's is leading, and they

are thinking about all these issues. So, uh, they're really on top of it, and and they're gonna come out with a plan that you know, as best as you possibly can protect privacy. The problem with this this this virus and not having a vaccine, how pernicious it is is that there there are actually no perfect solutions to

go back to work. Um, even if you could test everybody every day, test the accurate, so some some people are gonna slip through in this human error and tests whether whether even if we have a home test, there's human error in all tests. So so perfect is the enemy of the good. I think we can they construct a plan that by and large will make people safe if they follow these procedures, and we can get the

economy going back again. The terrible thing about this disease is it has a disproportionate impact on lower income workers, workers and restaurants UM, in the in the travel industry. Uh. And so so with no work UM, that is a terrible situation to be in. And so we've got to figure out a way to safely get people back to work and safeguard our hospital system as well. All right, only got about two minutes left, but we got to

talk basketball. We're going to see an NBA season. Steve Adam Silver is uh, you know, an incredible commissioner, and he's he's on top of this every day, and I'll just say he's monitoring it, working with public safety, health officials, his access to all the data that we have, and the NBA and his incredible staff and medical group has access to all the best information from China throughout the world.

And Adam's number one watch word is is the NBA will be open up when in a safe and responsible way and working with government officials to do that in saving fronds away. So um, I, like everybody else, I'd love to see the season back, but I agree with that him that that he's got to come up with with it, with a plan that's going to work for public safety, and then we'll get basketball back and he's going to take it day by day as more information

pours in. The crazy thing is we're only about it seems like it seems like we've been in the situation to me, at least since I've been sitting in my office looking out the same window for thirty days now. It seems like it has been four years to me, But have been been about a couple of months. Yeah, well, Steve, but is it safe to say that probably a first step will be games being played but without fans in the stands. Uh. You know, Adam is looking at all that,

and I think that's a logical conclusion. Uh if if games in all sports begin, uh, probably you want you want to make sure that that the sports are not responsible for spreading the virus. So right, obviously having fans not being the stands would would be would get you an earlier opening. Yeah, all right, well we're certainly missing basketball. I missed chatting with you earlier this year about March madness and your beloved Blue Devils. So hopefully you get

back to something resembling something normal. Steve Helluka, glad you're on the case. Co Chairman of Being Capital, co owner of the Boston Celtics, Sternians on the phone from Boston, Carroll and look forward to hearing about their recovery and return to work framework, because I think this is what everybody's going to have to be sharing about what works. Um, what are the systems? You know? I thought about when we're talking with one of the you know, April tailor billions.

You know, how do you do film productions? Right? I think everybody's got to be sharing this information and um, love how Boston gets together, pulls in leaders from all walks of life, life and your people, I you know, you getta love Boston magnificence, great tone, it's a great, great time. I'm road journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. No, no, who's going to drive home? Honey, please, I'll do the right drivel. I want to drive. Just drive, baby. The

questions can try. This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll dry up to dawn on bloom Bird Radio. All right's time take a look at the clothes. Drive to

the clothes. We called Smede back with us, president portfolio manager at Smede Capital Management, roughly one point six billion in assets under management, on the phone from Phoenix on this Thursday, and on a day we're as we heard from Charlie, we've been bounced around and we are off our lows, but still down across the board on those major equity averages. Cult. Nice to have you back with us. Um, how are you doing, How how's your family doing? How?

We're doing really well? I mean, all things considered, we got three kids doing uh you know, i'mline learning and um, it makes being an office look way easier. Yeah, that's that's so true. Right. Everybody's talking about, you know, if you didn't respect teachers before, which is first of all, shame on you. You definitely do now because it is tough,

tough work. I remember reading something cold. You may have seen the same thing that Shonda Rhymes, of course, famous showrunner of all these amazing shows that have been on television, said after teaching it was something like, after teaching my kids for an hour and a half, I now think that every teacher should make a billion dollars a week.

So it definitely checks out. Well. You know, meanwhile, what's happening in the markets from your perspective, because you know, for folks out there looking at there for one case, you know, if they dare they actually see a nice little optimistic you of some sort. Um, how should people be feeling because I'm still nervous. Yeah, and that's a great,

great question. There's quite a contrast to the market. And uh, you know, you guys were just touching at this where you're you're kind of looking at blowoff tops as you just mentioned in certain names. Um, and the market just continues to get narrow and that at the same time, what the depravity of what went on the last sixty days? Um, there are just distinct areas in places that there's been losers. So you know, a couple of days ago I saw the stat was that the market was only below it's

high on average. But if you look at the meeting stock, they're still gon and that shows you the chasm between the halves and the have nots, and that today is just kind of a picture of the halves in terms of you know, who reported what they're excited about. But that is not, in our opinion, where the opportunity is coming out of this. That's just that was the rear view mirror. So tell us about investment choices you have or have not been making. You run a value fun

you run you know, some other funds. I'm just curious how you've been either seeing opportunities are still fighting to find some. Yeah, there's a it's a it's a wonderful question. So just to give a sense, I give you guys a sense. You know, we're entering an era where stocks are probably only going to make two percent compounded over the next two years. Um, that means roughly dividends and you know, maybe it's a dividend growth that maybe it's a little higher at three percent. And that's for the

broad indices. That being said, UM, you can go into places for like the subprime auto loan market right now, and go look at a company like Credit Acceptance Corporation, who we just got involved for the first time ever in this it's an incredible high returning equity business. That what you know, You hear subprime autos and you think cool area, Are you crazy? And the answer is that space has just disappeared in terms of who's willing to

provide liquidity. And so I'll never forget. Richard Burnstein many years ago said you want to invest like the mafia. You go into businesses at times when nobody else wants to be in that business, and you prove capital, but you want to extract really high returns on a legal basis. And that's what we can do with the business like

that today. There's other places like the energy business. You know, the Wills Fartle comment distress that that's mafia like investing opportunities, and that's just that's there's particular places for that, and a lot of the blow off tops you're seeing, there's money is available to fly into that as possible, right rich Birds see. Of course, a long time strategist over at Meryl I used to talk to him a lot of time, and they moved on too, you think eating

vance and then is now on his own. But yeah, watch the markets for a long time. Yeah, go ahead, go ahead, I was gonna I was just gonna say, willis capital scarce? Is what should make you draw out of this um? You know, I wrote a piece of this soft Week talking about the you know, effortless money, as Buffett quartered in there's two thousand shareholder letter, is what we've seen in the VC world in the last five or seven years. Effortless money is what he referred

to that as. And I say that because the question is the barkets can often augment economics or create what we call financialized demand, and if that is showing up in your business, you should be very scared because funding can change quickly. As we've seen an environment where will funding change that will change the economics of industries UM.

The same fragile customers that are asking for rent abatements in the commercial space right now that are in the startup lan are going to have to ask for rent abatements on hosting and maybe might be walking away from digitalized at some point if they can't fund their business. No one is pricing that risk in the markets right now. Yeah, I do think a lot about that. I mean, we're starting to see that or around the edges, I mean, especially when you look across some of the media names

and things like that. You know, budgets start to shrink and you're right there, these sort of ripple effects, and we talked about it all the time from the consumer perspective to you know, a change in you know, not going out to eat has much more dramatic effect than just oh okay, well, you know, maybe people are takening their budgets a little bit, especially at the scale that we are that we are talking about here, Cole. So what do you I guess with all of that, what

do you worry about the most? And how does that translate into into action or maybe in action when it comes to someone's portfolio. Yeah, I know, it's you know, what are we worry about the most? In the interim here is um you know, watching these boy off tops taking the market or higher level. It's not the average stock. So that just looks like it's going to set up some near term disappointment. We are rallying off the low um and in in kind of a bear market rally style.

In our opinion, it doesn't mean you can't find great bargains out there, but that's not what's hitting wonderful new highs and taking the market higher. Where you have to go into industries like consumer, like malates. We've been a buyer a mas rich in sigment property group. Those kind of places offer wonderful potential, wonderful prices, and they can gain the benefit of the reversion of the economy back

to normal. Wow, I get a jumping because it's like when my husband says to me, just because it's on sale, honey, doesn't mean it's a great deal. And I do prices. What you pay value is what you get. And when we come out of this, we do know that things are going to change. To your point, that's no question things are going to change. But how fun is it to do what we just got done doing? So we know it would be different than that. What have we

been doing? We've been sitting at home trying to entertain ourselves in many ways. If we don't have a backyard or we don't have a front driveway, we're doing that in a very small area. We're gonna want to get out. This might be the summer when states open up. This might be the summer that no one wants to be home. And I will say, and Jason, I don't know how much do you think about this? I know because you have a lot of discussions round your dinner table like

we do, and I'm assuming you do too. Coal is that you know, we like to be around people, and we are adaptable, and we will figure out how to do it in a safe way. And I think that's what industries and leaders um. Just like we talked with Steve Paluka. You know, we're going to all figure this out and it will be different, but we'll figure out how to get back to doing some of those things that we took for granted beforehand. Cole, we do sixteen

year old girls. They're gonna want to show up at alta and they're gonna want to get their makeup done. Why it's somewhere to go, it's somewhere to be around people. It's likely to be closer to a mall. We're gonna want to go entertain ourselves because we're deprived for fun. Yeah.

I just it's so interesting to try and figure out, you know, what what the patterns of behavior are gonna be, and you know whether how far back we go, and I sort of go back to what Mike McKee, the metaphor that he gave us Carol, this notion of you know, it's not a V, it's not a U, it's a swoosh. I love like that. Yeah, it's a good one, all right. Col Smid, thank you so much, President and portfolio manager for SMAED Capital Management, looking after about one point six

billion dollars. Jonas on the phone from Phoenix. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You and subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show every weekday at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio m