Using Data to Create a Safe Back-to-School Plan

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, another week of so

many headlines related to the virus. It is such a pleasure as always to catch up with Dr Ian les Bader, our soothsayer, our truth teller, our guy who really helps us understand where we're going and where we are, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n y us Lango Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from New York City. Ian, how are you hi? H Happy Friday, hugsum. I hope

everyone is doing well. We are so far thriving, but seeing lots of patients and UH and seeing some longhaulers and some COVID patients as well, So UH, we are not out of the woods. Just so let's talk about that. I mean, what is the reality check for this area that we all live in, specifically the New York City area I'm talking about, Like, where are we right now? We see hot spots reported, but you you are quite literally in on the front lines. Tell me more about

what you're seeing. So you know, we're definitely seeing UH in increase in cases. And I think whenever you see hot spots, you know, the danger is that extending into other areas of the community. We're certainly seeing in the Midwest as well, not just in New York City some

hot spots, but throughout the country. So I think until we are all able to get a prevented amount of US and UH, or until monoclonal antibody and fusions are widely available, we really have to resort to the old traditional UH infectious disease controls of you know, mass scoring, even though we know that's not acent effective and social distancing. And last week we talked about some in the in the more religious community, and it is important that everyone follow,

you know, follow the guidelines. There is no uh problem, there's no um conflict between religion and spirituality and good good health and science or religions really emphasize healthy behavior and and uh this is just part of that for the time being. So there should be no conflict with being observant in in the way you feel as appropriate and also doing um good behavior for the community. Right. I mean, I feel like that's been one and theme

um in that we've talked about. You know, it's it's the whole virus is all about a sense of community. It's protecting others. I mean, you want to protect yourself, of course, but you really have to think about that's what mask wearing is ultimately about. When you look at what's going on around the country. I think I was kind of thrown when I was watching some some programs, some news programs, and they were showing a map of the country and showing where we're seeing increases in cases,

and it was almost blanketed across the country. So is this kind of the second wave that we've all been talking about. Is this the beginning of it? Yes? I think that is the case. You know, we certainly saw a drop in the number of cases. And really around the world we're seeing, you know, the second waves. And unfortunately, if you look at even back to nine eighteen the Spanish flu, you know, these viral infections do come in waves, they do mutate a bit. UH. People do develop some

slowly but surely her herd immunity. UH. And again, the idea is to kind of flatten the curve. You know, no one ever said we're going to completely stop cases. But if you're able to decrease hospital surging by wearing mouks and um, you know, using prudent behavior, that will kind of protect the health care systems so that people who need ventilators or people who are sicker can be admitted and there's you know, more reserve in the system. So I think we are seeing the second wave. We're

seeing it really around the world. It's this has happened in prior pandemics UM, and I think we have to continue, certainly to be prudent. So Ian, I have a feeling that you've been getting a lot of phone calls and text and emails from friends, family, patients about everything we've seen over the last week or so, especially with the treatment of the president around various drugs. We count on

you to separate the signal from the noise. What do we need to know about what we've learned, especially in terms of therapeutics over the last few days. So not everyone gets the same treatment as as the president, but I think he had a very aggressive regiment and I think actually a very smart regiment. Um it's certainly something

that it would be great to offer many patients. And really all of these medications work in different ways, just like we do HIV cocktails are hepathetis sea cocktails, where we have several medications that work slightly differently for the viruses. In combination, they can be highly effective. And I think,

you know, the President is a good example. You know, he was in a high risk group being male, older, overweight, and there are other risk factors that other people have high blood pressure, diabetes, lung disease, UM, kidney disease, you know that we all know about. And I think that's also why our death rate or or a case fatality rate is a little higher here. You know, we say like why is an America not doing so well? Part of it is our full you know, our population tends

to be overweight, more sedentary, couch potatoes. I don't want to generalize, but we we definitely have You're not wrong, and I think that's a fair I think that's a fair assessment. We talk about data. I think the data would bear you right. Exactly. We have almost a thirty percent obesity rate, and quite frankly, that's a high risk with COVID patients, and I think that is why we have a higher case fatality rate. I don't think it has anything to do with management, which is kind of standardized.

But in any case, he got this cocktail of monoclonal Lanta Buddies by Regeneron and Lily is working on this regeneration, by the way, is headed by a colleague classmate, George Ancopolis from Columbia Medical School. I'm glad he made the distinction that, you know, we can't all just like copped her over to Walter Reed and be like, give me everything, give me what you got, um, But how do we

think about it? So, for one, it does show you that in the White House, even though people are tested every day, because there's an incubation period, you can be infected and not recover virus from the naves of pharynx or from saliva. That this is not a hundred percent full proof approach testing people every day, whether it's back to school, and you know, we do need to accept that that it is imperfect, no matter how careful you can be. And obviously at the White House they're very

meticulous and in a close proximity people working together. Really all you need is one person, uh where that test doesn't catch it until they are more more vi remaic, where there's more virus there. So, um, you know, he became symptomatic and really got a cocktail and unproven, but I think a very intelligent, smart cocktail um with not all of those drugs yet FDA approved. You know, one was room desiviere, which is approved for as an anti viral, and we do give those to pay in the hospital.

Decks in methasone, which typically is given. You don't want to give that too early because it is a mildest as a steroid in immuno suppressant um, but we do give it to people who are getting more inflammation. So I suspect they were a little concerned about him with blood oxygen or perhaps his X ray was abnormal. I

don't know. That, but that definitely decreases inflammation and probably one of the key drugs which is yet to be approved UH monoclonal antibodies and regeneration is is Um, one of a couple of companies working on this and at least with the regenera on Um system headed by one of our Columbia P and S alumni. Just to put in a plug um, these are mice that have a humanized immune system, and monoclonal antibodies are developed to the

spike protein, which is the common protein. So even though the virus may mutate, that spike that's typical on the out or shell of the of the virus has has monoclonal antibodies and that can dramatically reduce, uh, the amount of virus in the bloodstream and really help the body's own you know, by time for the virus to be cleared in in your own UH immune system clear it.

So that I think has great potential. You know. The problem of course is it's given intravenously, so you can't just pop up right right and and it is yet to be approved, but I think that certainly will be a big addition to the armamentarium. And like many other viruses and drugs. Having that combination therapy and anti viral to reduce viral replication antibodies immediately, so you don't have

to wait for your body to develop antibuddies. You're given these pasid antibodies which soak up the virus and then perhaps decks and methodsone and some patients, So you know, this makes sense. I think we're making progress on on on treatments and we need to do that until al of vaccine arrived. Switch again, we'll probably be very helpful. It may not work in everyone, but again, as long as we have a sixty effectiveness and as long as we're able to get to more of a herd immunity um,

that should make a big difference. But that's not until spring, right exactly. And as our reporter are Bob Lingreth, who's got the cover story of the magazine and he's done a lot of reporting on Giliad and Rambesca. Here he said, you know, Generation only has about fifty doses available, and he says, we've got fifty cases of the virus popping up every day, so the numbers are not in our favor for even some of the treatments. Like that. So

it's it's it's tricky and just got about thirty seconds left. Yep, you know we're making progress. I think they're going to ramp up. That's why we have to do what we can do while further therapeutics and vaccines are being developed, which is um acting smart and we know what to do, and social distancing absolutely got it. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Can I just say, it's a story, it's a map,

it's a podcast. That's how important this story is. Yeah, it is such incredible work that this guy has been doing throughout the course of the pandemic. Although even before I feel like he shifted effortlessly from telling us everything we needed to know about the trade war to everything we needed to know about the economic impact of the pandemic, especially when it comes to the embodiment of the K shaped recovery. In a lot of ways, Carol, you know

like he is helping us understand this. I think through the stories of real people, and this story is no exception to talk about Sean Donn and he has senior Trade and globalization reporter for Bloomberg he joins us on the phone from Maryland. But a lot of this is based on some incredible reporting Sean you did in Cleveland. Tell us about what you've found, because this is part of a series of stories that really capture what's going on in America. Thanks Jason, You guys are much too kind.

I should just let you guys talk about this story. No, no, no, no, we're just gonna talk about how great you are. You have to tell us about the actual don't go on. Look. I think one of the things we've we've been struggling to get our head heads around as as people in America right now, is this idea of different letter shaped recoveries. What does a V shape recovery mean? What does a K shaped recovery mean? We're gonna see a W Nike swish?

What what are we gonna say? And what's clear is that we're seeing a recovery that is being felt differently depending on where you are on the income ladder, where you are in terms of home ownership, where you are in terms of your ability to work from home, whether you're part of what I've started calling bread baking America. You know, that's those of us who are who are out there learning how to how to bake sour dough and and and have really bought a lot of flour

in the last six months. Or Breadline America, which is a much sadder place, which is those people who are out there who are struggling with housing, security and food and security UH as a result of having lost their their jobs as a result of the pandemic and the economic collapse we've we've seen since then. One of the things I set out to look at was the question of housing, and I really was was my head was spinning on this one, and finally I settled on the

idea of telling it through the story of two different houses. UM. And that really gets at the divide in the recovery right now. If you are a homeowner in a suburb of Cleveland called Lakewood, you are seeing demand for property sore right now. You're seeing property prices sore right now. And we talked to a newlywed couple who bought a house on del View Drive there UH and they ended up being one of half a dozen people who bid for this this this house within hours of it going online.

And they have a very happy story to tell. Their two tech workers and they are are doing well in life right now there from home, and they've got this brand new home that they're that they're moving into on the other side of town. We went to the Mount Pleasant neighborhood and then I've been spending some time listening to proceedings in the Cleveland Housing Court, and in doing that, I ran across an eviction case involving a woman called

Calais Gavings. Calais Gavings is a nursing assistant. She has rented a house UH in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood UH for nine hundred dollars a month, and at one point earlier this year she was laid off, she fell behind on the rent. When she was back at work, she just wasn't making as much as she used to, and so she ended up in the Cleveland Housing Court, caught up in an eviction crisis. And so these are today these two very different stories that you see at play

in the housing market. But then you start scratching the surface of these things and you discovered that actually you can find really the legacy of the last crisis way back in two thousand and eight in the subprime and four closure crisis in the property records that involved Kellai Gaving's house, and and and also just in the diverging paths that you've had between homes and predominantly black neighborhoods in Cleveland and their values and those that you've seen

and predominantly white neighborhoods. So it's a recovery that's unequal, but it's also building on the legacy of the last crisis.

That's what's so troubling, Sean. And that's what you know, Like you say, whether it was the east side of town or the west side of town, west side being wealthy or east side not so much, where it's mostly black neighborhoods and a high percentage of rental properties, it was already a struggling area, right, and then you layer on the pandemic and it's just gotten you know, worse again. But it's also, as you said, it was already an area that wasn't able to completely catch its breath from

the last crisis. And you know, when we talk about wealth creation, I think this is a part of it. Like there these groups of people are never given a chance to create any kind of real wealth in their lives. It is such a huge part of it. And it has to do with with with neighborhood stability in a

lot of ways. I mean the house that kill a gatherings and she moved out at the end of September out of this house, but it's owned by UH, an anonymous LLCO limited liability company that's actually, if you kind of track it down, is a shell company owned by French investors who have flocked into Cleveland UH to buy up these cheap properties because they're searching for yield. UH. You know, the investor who owns that property bought it for sixty five thousand dollars a year ago. UH. They're

collecting nine dollars a month in rent on it. That's a gross annual turn of like sixt It almost doesn't matter if the value of the house goes up, right. This is a cash flow play for those investors. And on the flip side, you have these these predominantly white suburbs where you have had pretty steady capital appreciation. This house that we looked at in the neighborhood of Lakewood had actually more than doubled in value in the last

eight or nine years. And Seawan, I feel like, you know, one of the most powerful pieces of your reporting is that you're telling stories that I am sure people in a number of different cities, countless cities across America, and you've been to some of them. You certainly talked to people, and a lot of them this could be their city too.

This is not a Cleveland problem. Oh look, absolutely, it's a problem right here in Washington, d C. I'm out in the predominantly white suburbs of Washington, d C. I have a very different economic reality from people who are in predominantly black neighborhoods on the other side of the Anacostia River. It's the same thing in New York. It's the same thing in you know out west there is There isn't almost no American city where this kind of unequal recovery isn't the story? Yeah, well, can I just

I know we've got were at that time. We could talk a lot more about this, and I highly recommend I'll put it out on Twitter. I may have already, but I'll do it again because I think it's a must read. But is there any hope that things change? Sean and your reporting? We just have about seconds here. Yeah. No, I think one of the really interesting things is what

do you do about something like this. And part of the problem here is that the policy response that's aimed at the broader economy is actually helping accelerate this, right. I mean, we know that the said pouring money into into into markets, lowering interest rates, that lowers mortgage rates,

that helps homeowners and so on. There needs to be some kind of targeting for someone like to Lake Athings that say that nine hundred dollars a month needs to go into building equity rather than simply going to rent. That is helping an offshore investor who has no interest in that neighborhood beyond cash flow and return. Yeah, yeah, it's really I mean, the whole the wealth gap is so apparent. Uh, and that's a big part of it.

All right, Sean Donn And thank you really really appreciate it. Uh, you're reporting it is must read as always, So check out this story. It's in the new double issue Bloomberg Business Week magazine, available in newsstands and Bloomberg dot com. It's also featured in the Stephonomics podcast with our colleague Stephanie Flanders, So get that where you get your podcast. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so we talked about

her yesterday. She is the subject of a story in the magazine which reveals how she is the economist that's become a pandemic sensation by helping stressed out parents. Uh, and we've talked with her before in Today's Business Week Economics were so delighted excited to have back with us Emily Austar, author and professor of economics at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. She's a Bloomberg opinion columnist, and she joins us on the

phone from Providence, Rhode Island. Um, Emily, we really are delighted. We had a great conversation with Esme Dupress, who wrote this great story about you that really gets into your background and and also the impact you're having on our world today, especially parents, which we'll talk about in a moment. But talk to us about kind of how you grew up and how you got to where you are today, because I feel like economics is in your bones, your blood,

your genetic makeup. No, it's it's totally right. So thank you guys for having me. And I'm like incredibly grateful to me for having written this article. It's sort of always a little bit nerve wracking to read about yourself and but um, I think she just I was so happy with it. Um. So yeah, I grew up my both of my parents are economists. That's probably the most valient piece of information. So I have two economist parents.

I'm actually married to an economist. So I'm sort of like steeped from from birth more or less in the idea of using economics for decision making in your household. And so how does that help you maybe think of it differently? You know, in this sense that if you're kind of living and breathing it all the time, if it really has sort of baked into your very uh being, do you think that maybe you naturally think a different

way than other people do? Make sure it's I'm not totally sure, but I do think that there's a sense in which you sort of grow up with a way of approaching problem and um, you know, and with like some as they tell the story, like my my mom didn't want to grocery shop when I was a kid. I said, you know, why don't we go grocery shopping?

Like everyone else, why are you ordering groceres? Did you say, well, I have a very high opportunity cost of my time and you know, And I feel like for me, I was like, oh, we were like okay, that makes sense, you know what I think. But I think for like, for a lot of people, that would be like what what are you talking? Yeah, how do you like that pick up like you know, pack and gum if you're

not at the grocery store having those opportunities? I mean no, I mean I think as a kid, it's like, where, like how was I going to get to negotiate over the sugary peanut butter if we were just ordering on online? But but but at the same time, like that, that notion of learning opportunity any costs though and thinking about it is a really um kind of intriguing one because if you it's funny you say that because I've actually, um,

I guess, sort of showing my predilections as well. I've actually had that conversation with I've talked about opportunity costs with with my teenagers, and I do think that once you start to look at that at the world through a lens like that, it's hard to then not look at it that way, right, Yeah, I think it's very hard to turn it off. And I think sometimes, you know, it's good that I'm married to another economist, because I'm

not sure that I could turn it off. And I think that for some people of this approach feels like really sort of foreign and odd, and it's like, what, like, what kind of argument is that for? You know, well, I don't you know, I don't feel like I should have to load the dishwasher because it's not my comparative advantage. That isn't an argument that like works as well if

your spouse is not also also an economist. Oh my god, I studied economics, and I don't know if I if I tried that at home, I think my health and we would just be like, yeah, you were done. We're done. I've heard enough stories about your family. It's not gonna

work now. But it is interesting, especially, you know, you know, fast forward a little bit, like we are in such a data centric world, right, and I think about there is so much data out there for us to assess situations and kind of a rational economic analytic way, and and that might help us get through some of the noise. That's really hard to get through, especially if you think

about something like a pandemic. Yeah, I mean I think you know, as as I have been trying to do more sort of talking to to a lay audience, both of the pandemic and even and even before I sort of I really rely on data, and for me, sort of seeing things in the data is really useful in it to be like a key input tough decision making.

Although one of the things I've realized is that it can be very hard for people, say who do not depend their whole childhood discussing data, uh, to kind of like put data in there in a way that it's helpful for making decisions as opposed to just being sort

of numbers that come out at you. And I think that some of the challenge is really like how do we put these numbers into context where people can actually use them, use them as opposed to just see them and kind of not quite understand how to fit them in their decision making. I think that's that's kind of

the tea of economics. So talk to us about some of the examples, because because you've really connected with a very very broad audience and an audience that normally would really shy away from you know, thinking about things through this framework. So give us an exist, give us one of the good examples where people who aren't as schooled

in this go oh okay, I got it. I mean I think that the you know, the biggest, the biggest thing that people sort of is at a hob moment for me when I try to explain risk to people is I talk about cars. So people are sort of have a lot of like, I don't want to take that risk. I don't want to take that riskus times I'll be like, well do you ever get in a car? And then they're like, oh, I see, you know what. I think that angle of sort of saying like, oh, actually,

I am taking some of these risks. It must be that I am willing to adopt some risk. Let me now flame other things in that. I think that is often a moment of like, huh, I see what you're saying. So, Emily, let's get down to the brass tacks of parenting during this pandemic. It is brutal for a lot of people.

I mean, I have teenagers and a two and a half year old, and I feel like I'm actually in pretty good shape because the older ones are self sufficient, and the two and a half year old is just adorable and you know, kind of living your best life amid all of this. But I do feel like for people, especially with school age kids, sort of elementary school kids who are also trying to work, this is really really difficult. Yeah, I mean I think the spring was really hard and

then sort of going into the fall. Um. Yeah, I was talking to somebody the other day was saying that her six year old is expected to be on zoom from eight thirty three thirty with a thirty minute break. I'm doing, you know, really tough. That's crazy. It's that hard for the kids, really hard for the parents. So so how do you do? Yeah, because I mean this is like parents have been looking to you to like,

for for kind of guidance on this whole school thing. Yeah, and I think that, you know, it's sort of at some point I realized that it was very hard to get that guy into that data and we didn't have a good data and so, you know, one of the big pandemic projects I've been trying to do is to try to actually collect some data on um on tools. And as they talked a little bit about that in the in the piece, but we've you know, got some

We've now got in some data. We're starting to you know, work with schools, try to collect COVID tracking data over time to really look at, you know, what are the risks and then I think even the next few weeks being able to look at you know, what are the what are the kind of mitigation practices of schools are taking that are helping them keep cases down so we can help places reopen, because I think that is really got to be our goal is to get especially younger

kids back in school. Well, what is the data showing when it comes to schools? Um? And you know, it's interesting. I was We're talking about real estate earlier, and it's always location, location, location, And I feel like even with a virus to some extent, it's location, location location. UM that you know, every school system, every city, every town is not going to be every state is not going to be the same. But I'm curious what your data

showing when it comes to all of this. Yeah, so I think our data in general is showing you know, fairly low rates. UM. So we actually have you know, a bunch of geographics coverage and for you know, in person school we're seeing over the last two weeks of September. You in the average school of a thousand kids, we're

seeing about one point five cases. Um, so you know, not no cases, but but you know, relatively low, um low rates and uh and you know, the rates are much lower in elementary than high school in the data that we're seeing so far. So it certainly seems like there's kind of a stronger argument maybe for bringing back younger kids and older kids. Yeah. So, Emily, when you think about this from a broader perspective, you know, a

lot of it. We talked about this on the program all the time, this notion that kids being back at school is a critical part of the broader economic equation in terms of really getting the economy back to some sense of normalcy for you know, blue collar workers, white

color words for the whole workforce. How how do you attack that problem or how do you get your arms around this notion of measuring the either the loss of productivity or whatever it is with kids being at home as it plays through the workforce and the and the broader employment picture. Yeah, so I think there's sort of two things to say about that. So probably the most

directly to see those kind of impacts. Is to look at the labor force numbers, which I think came out last week, where you see basically huge drops in labor force participation. Make labor force participation overall was down about a million UM in primary adults, and it's almost all of that is moong women. UM. So I think we're really seeing a lot of women labor labor force, presumably

because there are these additional caregiving obligations at home. But I also think we're framing this as somehow like it's the economy versus health and we need to open schools to the economy and like, let you know, the help throw caution to the win on health. But I actually think it's there's also real significant health issues depression, anxiety,

mental health, food and security. There are reasons that we want kids in school that have nothing to do with you know, we've got to get our economy going right. I mean there's also you do wonder what happens to kids right developmentally UM and education wise for some of those critical years if they're not in school with peers no, and I think that you know, there's there's learning losses,

there's socio emotional development losses. Um, there's you rockouts and I think we're going to see the impacts on this, on this on kids, you know, basically forever. Yeah. And I know, like I knew, some of the positions you've taken haven't always been well received by lots of people. I know, as it gets into you know, what kind of pushback have you gotten? So I think on the you know, on the school stuff, UM, you know, the position we need more data is something I think many

people agree with. UM. But you know, I also, UM, I have taken the position that we should be reopening at least more than we than we have been. And I think there, you know, there is pushback there. UM. And I think, you know, sometimes you know, you have to think about like this argument is grounded in in data, um, and we can have an argument on the merits. Um. I think it's really important. And reason Witherspoon says she likes what you're doing. I'm convinced she's going to play

you in a miniseries on Netflix. Can I just put that out there? That would be amazing, UM, But I doubt it. But I I've gotten there's been the life is a little bit different in some of those dimensions than than it was maybe five years ago. It is time for the drive for the clothes. Let's check in with Brad McMillan. He is the Chief Investment Officer, Managing Principle for Commonwealth Financial Network. Johnny's on the phone from Waltham, Massachusetts. Brad,

how is life in lovely New England. It's a nice time of year, right, this is the time to live in New England. The sun is out, the trees are changing. From a from a weather perspective, life is good, yeah, But otherwise things are a little topsy turvy. They remain so I feel like, you know, we talked to you a month or two ago, and what's different now. I mean, we're much closer to an election which seems to be

very much friend of mine for investors. Um we have a back and forth and back and forth and back and forth on stimulus, which certainly is top of mind as well. What's top of mind for you. I'm watching a couple of things. I'm watching the pandemic. I mean, we've seen, we saw things get better, get worse, get better, and now they're getting worse again and the risks are rising. And obviously we've got the risk coming up with the election. There's some real concerns there, and we're looking at the

economic recovery start to slow down. And what's perverse about all this is the market is pretty much kept moving up. And what I've come to the conclusion is the worst things get, the better they are for the market. Because investors are now thinking about the stimulus. It's kind of like when bad news was good news because it meant that that was going to cut rates. I think we have the same kind of anticipated policy rally now that we saw then. Hm. So what do you do right

now as an investor? What's your advice to investors? Well, it depends. I mean, if you're an older person or somebody who's going to need the money in the next couple of years, maybe now is the time to start thinking a little bit more cautiously. What's what's older nowadays? I am curious about that too, because I think, no, seriously, I mean, people are working a lot longer, um, some because I have to, some because they want to, and can um. And I just do wonder what you know,

the old formulas about asset allocation and age. I do wonder what's different nowadays? Well, I'm fifty five, So from my perspective, I'm going to be working at least another ten years. I don't really consider myself to be an older investor, But if I was really looking to retire in the next five years or so, that's when I might start to think of myself in the quote older unquote context as an investor, I'd start paying more attention

to avoiding losses than maximizing gains. I think that's probably the best way to think about it. Are you looking to maximize your gains? Are you at the point where you're really looking to make sure you don't lose too much? That's where you get older from an investment standpoint, Brad, what do you think about the election as it plays into an investment thesis at this point? Because I feel like in past uh times and the before times as it were, you know, we're looking at it. Actually, Hey, okay,

election is gonna happen. We're gonna know who the president is, you know, within maybe a few hours, certainly a day or in the case of two thousand, a couple of weeks, a few weeks. But it feels like there isn't that certainty for people right now. Does it change the way you invest at all, or do you just kind of hang on tight. It shouldn't it shouldn't change it the doll And the reason I say that is, you're right,

we're going to see a lot of volatility. Markets are expecting November to be pretty toughed, and you know, I agree with that, and it might well extend beyond that. But are we going to be thinking about that next year at this time? I don't think so. Yeah, exactly. So you know, it's it's like, even if it's a monumental disaster, and I'm not saying it will be, it will pass. You know, as of inauguration day, the existing president will leave office and the new president will be inaugurated.

We don't know who that is. Their procedures in place, and we'll get through it. It's gonna be ugly, quite possibly, but this tool will pass. Yeah. You know, listen, you know, we know good perspective. We will get through these things. We've gotten through tough things before. We certainly will get

on the other side of this. The one thing I do wonder that when we do get on the other side of it, these systemic problems, these gaps within our society, you know, we talk a lot about wealth creation, and we had a great story, you know, by our shandon and troubling story you know in Cleveland, you know Ohio about you know, depending on where you are, you're either doing really well and and and or you're not. And it tends to be minorities who are not. They can't

own property, they just don't have the wealth to do it. Uh. And it really tells kind of that bigger, broader story in the country. I bring this up because, Brad, I mean, ultimately the economy, society as a whole benefits when everybody benefits. I mean, I think about what you do right, the more people who are in the markets or who need

financial advice, that's good for you guys longer terms. So I do wonder how you think about that, how you think about how what we need to do to improve it so that there are more people that are able to actually create wealth in this country and that it's

not just concentrated in a few hands. Totally agree, Cal And if you look at it as a citizen, I could make with you more is an economist, I also agree with you because the truth of the matter is the most economically healthy society is we're purchasing power, the ability to spend and invest is spread the most widely, so it's in white and self interest to say this

is a problem we have to solve. And the political system you can see, you know, we get these generational shifts, and my guests would be this election or the next one, we will start to do exactly that. We're going to see a focus on younger people, less affluent people. You know, I think the tax structure will probably is eventually look more like it did in the nineteen fifties. You know, the labor laws were looking more like they did in the nineteen fifties. We've we've had more equal society. We

can do it again. That's a really interesting point. That's a really interesting point. All right, Brad McMillan, thank you so much. Nice to catch up with you, always so thoughtful, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Principle at Commonwealth Financial Network. Journeys on the phone from Waltham and a programming net for all of our listeners. Jason Kelly, my partner and crime my co host here at Bloomberg Business Week. He is leaving our family, but not really leaving the Bloomberg family.

That's exactly right, Carol. I am headed over to be the chief correspondent for Quick Take. It is our over the top network, launching on November nine, so I'll still be around and I won't go too far. But it has been a massive pleasure working on the show and working on this podcast. We're so humbled. I think it's fair to say, Carol, by all the listeners support that we've gotten the fun conversations we've gotten to have, and I know you will continue to do that better and

better and better going forward. We love our audience and they have really shaped who we want to talk to and who we bring in, so we thank you so much for that. And Jason, I can't even tell you how much I will miss you. Um. I think you know though, UM. For everybody else our podcast audience, we'll see you here next week.