US Job Growth Tops Estimates

Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Let's get to some of the big news of the day in the market moving news. Jelena Silchiva is senior US economist at Bloomberg Economics in our interactive broker studio along with Creed GROUPDA Markets correspondent

at Bloomberg and Creed. I'm gonna get to Elene in a moment to lay at the jobs data markets, though I feel like just don't know where to go right now. They don't know where to go, I will say, I think today is the kind of day where risk sentiment is very much affected by the passing of of shenzo abe Um and you know, not not to make light of it at all, but one of the things that a trader told me early on in my career was that sometimes the best undergraduate degree for trading is psychology,

and and sometimes it has a major effect. And I think that is the trade that you saw certainly in the pre market. You certainly saw it overnight, and I think you're seeing a little bit of a damper today.

Remember we are looking at very light volume as well, but there is even when you you know, talk to traders on the floor, the ones are at their desks, I should mention there is this kind of somber tone in terms of even talking about issues that we've been talking about for ages, inflation, recession, the jobs number, etcetera.

But it's really the passing Shinzo abe that I think has had an effect on how these markets are trading to the point where it's always you're even seeing kind of the the go to trade right now, which is cell treasuries, cell stocks, and that has been the trade that's been going on for six months straight. And as

you've reminded us, all we created. Look, volume is low right now, and you know, we're down on the SP five from a volume perspective, more than twenty three percent versus the last twenty days, so not a lot of activity during this holiday week. You initially ate to us senior US economists Bloomberg Economics, come on in here and talk a little bit about this job's report, because that was a blockbuster report, jobs added, blowing past the tutor

and sixty thousand that analysts on average forecast. According to Bloomberg Economics. There was some bad news though, the participation rate taking down. Give us your take, Well, that was a little bit of flying in the goinment, I would say, But overall, I think the report was pretty good, not just on the surface but beneath. I think one thing I would like to highlight is the breadth of job creation,

particularly in the service sector. So if you look at the diffusion index, uh, you know, this is one of the indicators that goes into our model for recession probabilities. You know that index is remaining really high. It increased in the months of June. It broadened further for the services sector, and that is telling us that more and more industries are hiring, so people find no difficulty finding

a job even if they lost one. So we all heard the news about layoffs in the text sector and are the industry that may be very interest rate sensitive. But people seem to be able to find jobs easily even if they get laid off. This is a good thing, all right. So, Yelena, what does this mean for something that creately focuses on day to day? She watches the market when investors are like, oh my god, were freaked about recession. What does that mean for stacks? Oh no, wait,

things are good? What does this mean for aggressive FED? So maybe I'm not so worried about recession, but I'm worried about valuations. How do you kind of make sense of it? So I think, to me, this report clears the way for the FIT to remain on an aggressive tightening. So it makes even the CPI report next week less of an important report, because you know, it just says, okay, little able market is doing great, everything is fine for now,

it can withstand an aggressive FED. That is correct, even though we expect that quite uh significant increase in the headline CPI um next week. That's really really interesting, Creedy, What do you think of that? The idea that because this job's print was so strong. It shows that the labor market is so stronger. There was the downward revision last month, we should note, but still the US adding just hundreds of thousands of jobs per month every single month. Throwo.

Does that indeed make the CPI report that we get next week less important because the Fed is kind of on its path and it is committed to fighting inflation. Well, I think you have to talk about the recessionary dashboard here, which isn't signaling your traditional signals. You're not seeing these widespread layoffs. You're not seeing this big slowdown and business investment. I mean, sure you're seeing kind of layoffs and pockets Amazon, games, top, etcetera.

But it's still not at the level that U saw on two thousand eight, for example, where everyone is getting laid off. My mom, by the way, it was one of them at the time, and I remember it being this kind of, uh, this thing that almost took over every Almost everyone we knew was there had some sort of job shake up. This is, I think different, and that's why you're seeing such a big range in terms of is this a shallow recession that you really quickly jump out of, or is this a deep one, and

that's why there's so much confusion. Recession at all or is this a recession at all? And I think that's a good point that you bring up, because our question is a day, by the way, on Bloomberg Television today, was what recession we had a good ism data, Sure, sentiment is slow, Sure everyone'sti talking about inflation, but look at the numbers. People are still spending. So you, Lena, really quickly twenty seconds do we get officially a recession?

But it doesn't feel so bad. I don't think we are going to get even a technical recession in terms of negative roles in the second quarter of this year. I think we get a positive reading and we are not in a recession. All right, Well, think you have got guys, go have a glass of wine and a beer for the weekend. Things are all rosy. We got a few hours to go. All right, Thank you so much.

As always, you Lena should like you have to check out her work on the Bloomberg tournament on the senior US economist at Bloomberg Economics and follow all those hits that creedy group to das Markets correspondent at Bloomberg really just setting us up for some of our discussions today too. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So, of course, the big story, certainly here in the United States, there's several, but really for US, front and center and for investors has been that monthly jobs report. You as employers, you know, the news adding more jobs in June than forecast, the unemployment rate holding your five decade low, signs of both strong demand and that tight labor market continuing. And TI we know that's going to help keep the Fed officials

tilted toward another jumbo interest rate hike. They're going to be on their mission because it's about getting inflation down. Yeah, my money's on Carol, But I'm not a betting man. Okay, I'm not a betting man. We love to talk to Peter Quigley, the president and CEO of Kelly. It's a global staffing solutions company, so they've got a really good idea of what's going on in the labor market, not

just here in the US, but around the world. Peter joins us this afternoon on the phone from Harbor Springs, Michigan, Peter, how are you. How are you. We're doing well. Thanks, it's good to have you with us. Just spa asking those Bloomberg estimates of two thousand jobs gained for the month.

What in here sticks out to you in this report? Well, I think the fact that it is across the board job gains all of the verticals that reasonably well um surpassed expectations in light of the fact that there is considerable concern about a recession, I think speaks to the strength of the US labor market right now. If there's one downside, it was down slight downtick in the labor

force participation rate. We need to get more people back into the workforce, but a slight really slight, And I know some of the analysis earlier on Bloomberg was like, yeah, we can kind of blow that off for the moment, because there are some people we know who have maybe just said I'm done, I've retired. I'm not gonna, you know,

come back into the labor force. Peter, how does the data points that you're seeing kind of fit with not only the monthly JAWS report that we got today, but some of the other economic statistics about what's going on in economy. Would you put your money if you were a betting man, we know Tim isn't. Would you put it on that a recession is going to come or there's no way based on what you're seeing in this

labor market. Well, I think it's really tough Carol, to uh see a recession when you have this kind of strength and the labor market. Um, of course it could be a couple of quarters away. But obviously companies, the companies that Kelly deals with, still hiring there looking for workers. They have demand for their products, and they're looking for people to help support their transportation of goods or production

of goods. Uh. So, again, I'm not a betting man either, but I would uh, I would say it's hard to reconcile uh immediate recession with the jobs market and the

job report. We're here today, Peter. We love talking with you because you are seeing what companies are doing remind us of you said, kind of a broad swath of companies that you deal with, what kind of jobs that was at mostly senior level that you're dealing with, or what we we deal with from production workers where house house workers, office clerical engineers, scientists were the largest provider of substitute teachers in the US UM so we run

the Gamut technology uh bok permanent placement as well as temporary, so we have a pretty good hand on the pulse of what's going on in the labor market. Peter, are you seeing any sort of decline in demand for employees from the companies that you work with? As the FED has raised interest rates and has interest rates have gone up, we we've seen some softening, and particular verticals technology has

softened a little bit. I think like sciences because they're catching your breath from two years of the pandemic has slowed down a little bit. Um really high end permanent placement has tempered somewhat. You're talking level stuff, no more director level roles that companies are hiring or high volume of hiring when they're launching a new product. We support Kelly supports companies and they're hiring. So there may be some softening, but we don't see a significant decline right now.

I tease this so I want to get to it because you guys have done a survey of more than a thousand senior executives and you found that the great resignation will extend into the highest levels of the c suite. Senior executives say they will leave their firms within the next two years. What's that about, is that they're leaving

for good or because they've got a better opportunity. I think this is a big surprise coming for a lot of companies because executives at all levels are taking stock of what happened during the pandemic, whether it was working remotely or actually moving out of a particular location, not having to commute, being closer to family, and they realize that they have alternatives now that we're in a different environment,

and it doesn't just impact your mid level employees. We're going to see the great resignation impact sea level executives as well. Peter, We've I've got a real meta question for you just in the last forty five seconds that we have. What about it your firm at Kelly, What are you seeing with hiring your own full time employees, your own part time employees? What are you doing inside the company right now? Well, we went to a remote

work environment more than six years ago. We called it Kelly Anywhere where we allowed people to work remotely uh to balance their life and their work, and it was highly adapted by our employees, and we were ready for the pandemic when it hit. But we think it pays dividends longer term for retaining our employee because we recognize that it's not about building your life around work, it's about fitting work into your life. Try that at your next review meeting, Tim, Okay, I'll be doing it from

the office, but fitting fitting work around your life. Work is my life and I love it. I like those challenges, but I'm really trying to fit work around my life yet. Next this is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We gotta talk a little bit about COVID. Remember Tim, when among the most read stories on the Bloomberg it was always the COVID summary and the virus wrap that we're doing right like for for months, um on end, it was

always about what's going on in COVID. It's a little bit different nowadays, and yet as you and I know over the last few weeks, it's still front and center, has a pandemic to endemic at this point. This is a conversation we've been looking forward to having Dr Ian LS. Spader is clinical professor of medicine at n y U Lango Ines Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from New York City this afternoon. Dr les Better, How are you great? I hope you guys are feeling better.

You've it's been running through the studio, I say, yeah, it has. You're absolutely right. Carol's in a separate room. She's gotten it twice, or the things, she's actually gotten

it three times. I'll let her spill the details. I'm wondering, though, how we should be thinking about this, because I gotta tell you, even though it does seem like it's endemic in the sense that everybody's going to get it at some point, our reaction to it still feels kind of pandemic e in the sense of isolation for ten days

for kids under five who aren't vaccinated, for example. Yeah, there's no question we're seeing this surge, and exactly as you said, B A five, it's about of the cases that we're seeing A four A. These are kind of the latest omicron variants, right from B A one, which originated in South Africa. So you know, we're seeing viral

mutations exactly as you say, we're seeing reinfection. So this virus not only spreads were easily, so more people are getting it and they're a little less symptomatic, so they're really spreading it before they even feel very sick themselves. So it's a little harder to alert other people because by the time UH, you do a swab and you've been having a call for running nose, you've probably infected

other people. There's also immunizasion, so people who have had either the vaccine or even had covid or getting reinfections, and it's about cases are actually reinfection, so you can have it two or three times like our good friend and UH and co host. So it's very it's very frustrating, you know, obviously, and a lot of people say, what do I do I feel? Such? Should I test? If I do test no positive? Should I take pat slovin? Should I you know, tough it out? Would that be better?

So there's really lots of issues and lots of questions. I mean, this is I mean that was my case. I got it. I tested positive, I had UM eight fever, UH really bad sort of throat, took pack slovid and really within twenty four hours felt a real big difference. That fever went away, but then it it just I felt like I plateaued and just you know, it felt yiky, And then I tested negative, came back to work for

about four days, and then started getting symptoms again. This time it was all nasal and just wiped me out for two or three days, solid like in bed and then trying to find my way back. I feel like Ian that we just continue to not know about it. I didn't go to the hospital fingers crossed to vaccines to boosters. So that's a good thing, right, I mean, but there's still like, yes, it's going to hit us. Yeah, unfortunately it, Kim says, you know, we're it looks like

we're evolving into a more gimmick stage. And Thember coronaviruses there were four or five, and you know, multiple coronaviruses, and typically they've caused cross and colds. And had had we not known about COVID, you would have toughed this through and said I have a virus, maybe a flu. Okay, it's similar. Maybe they mean that as bad. Uh, but now that we know to test, people are asking about

past little bit. But your case is exactly right. First of all, we try not to give it to everybody, right, because it is a somewhat limited resource. You can't treat everyone. And there may actually be some benefit to toughing it through and getting you know, a polychlonal response, kind of natural immunity may give us an advantage in the future. But for people who are older, sicker, maybe have underlying problems. Um, Actually, they definitely inhibits the virus, so it slows it down.

But when you stop after five days, many people will get a rebound. The virus hasn't been eliminated, it's just slowed down to give your body a chance to respond to it. So we do see that. Uh, and there's a real question. Is that a real advantage. Maybe it's been just to write it through. But what I would say is that for people who have underlying medical problems and with HIV, cop D, lung disease, liver disease, you know, cancer, it's just a big group obesity, those people probably should

get it. But if you're otherwise young and healthy, it's probably better to write it out. Dr les Vader. As soon as I'm gonna ask you this question, I'm going to drink, you know, curse myself. I guess because I'll probably get it. But I somehow have been in an apartment for the last Superman rights now with two people who have COVID, and I somehow have not gotten it. I'm talking to better apartment here in Brooklyn. What do

we know about people who haven't gotten this? So great question, and we definitely see some people like that, people who are young and strong like you are either they've had other coronaviruses and have a little bit of immunity to kind of similar viruses other coronaviruses, or they've had a

very mild asymptomatic case. We've seen people where they come in you test antibodies, they're positive, So either they're vaccines have work great, or they've had a very mild case they didn't even know it, maybe a call for sniffle for a day, didn't test themselves. So, and there are some other people whose immune system is very good. There's a lot we don't really know about all the details of this um and that's why some people get reinfected, and why some people can be exposed and really not

seem to get symptoms at all. A lot that we shall have to learn. Yeah, we're masks That's what I'm gonna say. So Tim is young and strong and I'm old and week ian. You're not coming on anymore. You're done. I did not say that exactly what. We love you anyway, really appreciate it now. I just I feel like, you know, they're no vagaries. And I'll tell you in my case, I don't really have major underlying health, but I have a tendency to get sick and then be very sick

for a long time. You're good until b a sex. Okay, it's just down the corner. What does that fall? You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Right now, we want to tell you about a story you'll find line at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week, also on the Bloomberg terminal. It's about the fuel theft in Mexico. That's

a billion dollar program program problem. Excuse me again, although there might be a program that's behind it as well. And I have to say, Tim, this made me go and do some research because I remember back in twenty nineteen, a few years ago, there was another story that they wrote about. But it was a different type of fuel probe problem. Yeah. This story written by Amy Stillman, energy reporter for Bloomberg News. Amy joins us this afternoon on the phone from Mexico City. Joel Weber is the editor

of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with me in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Joel. That story that that Carol referenced is the gasoline that was being stolen, which am Low when he came to power promised to would try to get that under control. But there's a new issue now and that has to do with liquefied petroleum gas. Yeah. So we actually um covered the fuel theft previously, the theft of gasoline in Mexico in our highst issue a

couple of years ago. What was really interesting to me here is that Emma takes a lot of credit for cracking down on that, and Amy came to us with this reporting that was like, yeah, they've actually really uh it's been successful on the gas front. Like the whole idea of of tapping pimics his pipelines throughout the country and stealing gas and this becoming a black market that has gone away, but in its place liquefied Uh, natural gas has become the problem that is now filling this void,

and it's almost exactly the same as before. It's not as big of a problem yet, but the numbers have skyrocketed. UH. And so Amy walk us through what why this keeps happening in Mexico and what's different at this time? Great, yes,

thank you very much. UM. So essentially that's correct, UM, what we found to our reporting UM, and it's involved going to some of the more dangerous places in Mexico where UM staff of fuel and different types of fuel, including gasoline and liquified petroleum gas LPG is continuing, UM, you know, and spoke to residents in these places to try to understand how the market has changed since ANLO cracked down on fuel theft UM, which is known locally

as watching polls UM. And you know what we found was some interesting UM, some interesting changes, uh, not all entirely good. UM. It's correct that according to the official numbers, gasoline staff, gasoline and diesel thefts has fallen by um, you know somewhere between nine pent um since from before a lag into power. And that's obviously a very big number, and it's a number that UM. The President has been boasting about, you know, for the past several years ers UM.

It's arguably one of his uh, you know, greatest victories and in the fight against crime and corruption here in Mexico. But what we found when we went to these places is that UM LPG, which is UH it's a type of fuel that Mexicans use UM to heat water in their homes, they used for cooking. It's actually replacing the gasoline staff UM. This is especially the case in UH the state of Puebla, which is responsible for about sixty percent of the LPG sath UM that's currently going on.

And what we found is that a lot of the seeds that were previously stealing gasoline, you know, have replaced it with LPG. Why is this happening UM? One reason, very simply is that AMLO has focused on gasoline deaths, and what that means is that he's put in place UM military surveillance and to protect pipelines that carry g selene. LPG arguably isn't getting the same treatment, so it's easier to tap the pipeline. UM. They aren't being UM monitored

as closely. Then the other ar human is a bit more structural UM, which is to say that that probably remains a big problem in these areas, and so people don't really have a choice. Okay, so lots of unpack here, LPG being a different fuel, I'm curious, like it's not in the same pipeline, right, So, but you know, we if we've seen the government be able to actually protect the gasoline pipelines and and crack down on the illegal trade there, why haven't they been able to crack down

on the on the theft of LPG. Well, this is a very good question and one that UM, the LPG associations that I've spoken to, you know, are also asking they want to know why I am low isn't doing more to address this. Um. You know, one of the reasons is that it's a brand new market. It really popped up under his administration. UM, and it could be the case that they, you know, that the government will start to look at it, and you know, if it continues to grow. Now I think it's important here is

that it remains somewhat small. You could say, I mean it one third size of the annual losses that p X had during the the sort of gasoline death before analysts. So on the right hand, it's one third as big. But um, the fact that it's grown not much in the past to two to three years is it says a lot. So it's certainly something that I'll have to address any big problem. And I always you know, stories like this, and I was like, well, why is it happening?

And it really gets to poverty issues. Correct, yes, exactly. UM. You know, one of the issues with with any of this theft is that, um, this is occurring in zones in Mexico, UM, you know where they're obviously large pipeline networks that they run through to of rural areas where there's really not a huge amount of income coming into

these towns. UM. You know there there's not a lot of industry, and so you know, stealing fuel has been a practice that UM residents have been doing in these places for a really long time, to the point where, um, you know, most of them don't even consider it to be a crime. It's sort of just considered like you know what you do, you buy, you know, you you you trap and pindis typeline and you sell it on the side of the street and people buy it and

it's just just sort of you know, local practice. UM. And so you know, it's been this very complicated issue whereby um, you know, as poverty hasn't really been addressed, people don't see, you know, an alternative. And one thing I just want to highlight when I spoke to a lot of the residents, for instance, in in the state

of Hidalgo in central Mexico. You know, what they've told me is that why would they go and buy from a gasoline station when they can get it, you know, half the price on the street, and that they can't really afford otherwise. A lot of these people are unemployed, um you know, or not really earning much and obviously you know, hit by the pandemic and recession in Mexico that hasn't really helped matters. Well, it's another great story and an ongoing problem, but a different part of the

energy world when it comes to Mexico. Um, Amy, thank you so much. Amy Stillman, energy reporter at Bloomberg News, on the phone from Mexico City along with Jill Webber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's in our Interactor Broker studio along with Tim and this is a story you'll find online at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week and on the Bloomberg terminal. Be sure also that to check out the special double issue that is still out there,

the Heist Issue. Lots of fun stories certainly heading into the weekend. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So, Bitcoin, as we've been talking about, on course for its best weekly gain in since March, helped by return of risk appetite in the global markets more broadly. But we've got to remember Tim right, it has tell some six year to date and we've seen a lot of carnage. Yeah.

Some of that carnage includes Celsius, it includes what's happened at block Fi in recent weeks. Of course, it's three arrows, capital management and more. Really eager to chat with our next guest, Corey Clipstons, CEO at Swana Bitcoin. It's a financial services platform that helps people buy bitcoin. Corey joining us this afternoon from Los Angeles, California. Corey, how are you. I'm welsome and hi Carol, and thanks to both of you for having me on again. Corey, I gotta give

you credit where credit is due. We spoke about a month ago and you called a lot of what we saw in terms of carnage over the last month. I'm wondering what you're seeing when you look out across the landscape here and if there is going to be another shoe that drops here. Yeah, I think what we're basically seeing is the unwind of a business model that never

should have existed. And we've been calling it DeFi lending as a centralized finance supposedly juxtaposed with allegedly decentralized finance. Questionable whether that actually exists in crypto. But these businesses like selfiust block Fi, Nexto abre uh, and there's more obviously evolved just kind of went under last week as well, have benefited from being in this new space that hasn't

been regulated according to the laws on the books. And what they've done is without coversight and without any sort of rules, gathered retail investors and calls them depositors, but in the fine print explaining that they're actually unsecured creditors. And so every user of selfius actually loaned their money to Celsius in the promise of some return, and Celsius could do whatever they wanted with that money. And this doesn't happen in that way without insane levels of you know,

guide rails and oversight and compliance, etcetera. You don't have Citadel going out there and promising five percent returns were a high yield savings account to retail depositors, because that's the information they Senttry inherent in a relationship like that is just too much. You can't have hedge funds and prop trading desks going out there and recruiting deposits from

retail investors unless you have oversight and regulations. Would you say, exactly, exactly, Yeah, So they This is something that I think was a short window in time for the last couple of years, all these businesses exploded in assets under management and invaluation.

And the entire reason that these types of businesses don't exist in traditional finance without tons of transparency and regulators looking into who they're lending out to what they're actually doing with people's money, because these are essentially they really are banks. It's kind of like wildcat banking from back

in the day, taking gambling with their users money. Corey, there's a great Bloomberg opinion piece, at least I think it's great written by the opinion right and the headline is giving thanks for crypto as well timed meltdown, and it says, rarely has a crisis been so well timed. Crypto managed to boom and crash before it became too connected to the broader financial system. So I guess they would argue, I would argue right, like to some exaid, I'm glad to see kind of some of this stuff carnage.

I I don't want anybody be hurt. It's there have been a lot of people who have been hurt, well not as many as could have been, though, And and maybe I don't know, I don't know who it's the fault of. I mean, everybody was so quick to jump on the crypto bandwagon that like nothing could go wrong and buy or beware as an investor, perhaps, yeah, I think that it is obviously extremely sad for those people that were stucker in by false marketing from some of

these platforms. On the other hand, a lot of people we're greedy and we're chasing something and kind of new, you know, in their gut a bit that something was off. If you're looking for or interest on savings deposit, essentially when the bank is offering you point five percent, and

you know it's not fd I C insured. And everyone on bitcoin Twitter is warning you every day for the last two or three years that these things are risky and probably are cross loaning to each other, and you don't know where the holes are, and you don't really

know what they're doing with this money. And now you know with this lawsuit coming out against Celsius, at least the allegations in the lawsuit that was filed yesterday, we find out that they were gathering user deposits, going and gambling with them, and also using those new user deposits to pay interest to the old ones, also known as the ponding schemes. Corey, we only have about forty seconds left here, but I'm I'm wondering what this means for

the ecosystem. Your company swant Bitcoin. It's a financial services platform. It helps automate purchasing bitcoin. Do you worry that the carnage that we've seen over the past few months will affect interest in bitcoin? So broadly this is wildly bullish for bitcoin only companies that don't rehypothecate user funds, and

they'll take risks with their users funds. So it's been fantastic for us and for people coming over and joining Swan and sort of getting interested in us, and obviously it wipes out a massive business model that was competing in the bitcoin on ramp space with these risky yields and kind of stucking a lot of the air out of the room for the last couple of years. And those competitors are essentially all gone. So it's been very good for us. Hey, Corey, we'll have to certainly continue it.

They've got a table it for now, but we look forward to having you back with us. Corey Clipson, he is chief executive officer at Swan Bitcoin. On the phone from Less Angelis, California. You are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. I'm roc journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, hol please, I'll do the riding. I want to drive. It's good question. This is the drive to the clothes well down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just got about ten and a

half minutes left in today's trading session. We are getting ready to wrap up this holiday short and trading week. We've been bouncing around a little bit and we're actually seeing a slight gain on the NASDAC. But we're definitely off our highs of the session, so Tim, let's get to it. We got Charlie Massimo, senior vice president and financial advisors that Wealth Enhancement Group, joining us on the phone from Blue Point, New York. Charlie also specializes in

planning for families impacted autism. We've talked about that with him in recent months. Charlie, really good to have you back with us. How are you, Graham, great, Thanks so much for having me again. Well, at least when it comes to today the SP five hundred searching for direction, bouncing between gains and losses is Carol mentioned down Well, now it's not exactly it's it's flat, okay, just keeps turning red or green when I look at the terminal

right here. Help us make sense of what's going on in the context of that hotter than expected jobs report that we got earlier, Well, I think I think you have a lot of people focusing on a short term number, which certainly is important, but I think when you stretch it out, it's kind of showing that the economy is still really strong, and you see jobs being jobs continued continuing to grow, and I think you're finding the markets trying to find a bottom here, and I think this

has been a very constructive week two weeks actually for the market. And again I would never predict the bottom. You just never know where it is. But I think this has been a very constructive week on the positive side. Well, and what does it mean now in terms of I mean, do you want to see a day where we just tumble like crazy and there's a lot of strong volume or do you feel like we've already had that day? Well? I don't, certainly we we won't know until it's happened.

But I'd rather see things kind of go creep along then either go straight up or straight down, which is never really that healthy for the market. But when you start to see increments, small increments either down or up um and each day it seems like we're making higher lows, and I think that's again a very positive impact for the markets. And again I think investors need to always kind of ignore the short term noise and continue to stay focused on what their long term vision and goals are.

It's so it's it's easier said than done, right. So much of this is psychology, and so much of it I think for for many investors, especially long term investors, is trying to look past those short term moves. But there is a lot to think be concerned about, at least in the short term. Here. Yes, we've got a strong labor report for the month of June, but Charlie, there are a lot of concerns about inflation out an economic slowdown, not just here in the US, but globally

as well. And I wonder what you think in terms of what's priced in right now when you take a step back and think about all the challenges that the US and world economies are facing. Yeah, it's a great point. And as an investor, even in good times, there's always a reason to be concerned, to be fearful, because there's always something out there that could be the next shoe that drops. But again, I I think there's a lot of transparency with the Fed. They've told us a lot.

I think we've expected, or we're expecting a lot of what they're going to do. We kind of we're reading about Russia every single day. We're not seeing any additional surprises there. So I think there's a lot of the market that's already been priced in because of the transparency of the FED and because now expectations are fairly manageable, and I think the next turtle is going to be next week when we start to see earnings reports. What

do you anticipate that we'll get from earnings? I know we're expecting still earning this growth, but I think there's some concern about margins and margin compression um and I'm really looking forward to, like you, I think to the commentary that we get at. What kind of picture do you think they might paint. I think they're going to be more positive than people are expecting. We've had positive guidance for so long now, and I think that positive

guidance is going to continue. And I think when we have some surprises to the upside, I think you're going to see a fail I think you can see a fairly explosive market on the upside next week when we see some earnings that are fairly surprising. You have to remember we're not investing in stocks, were investing in great companies. And to think that these great companies lost a third of their value in six months, you know, I see

that very hard to to fathom. So I think you're gonna start to see these strong companies produce some very good numbers, and just to do a little bit of

a tease him. One of my gainers actually has to do with the name that analysts are like, you know, look at how much it's been beaten up, look at its price to earnings, saying that maybe it's just time to buy it, Like I do think you do see the Alice community, the investment community looking at some of these names, starting to look at the fundamentals and saying it's kind of overdone. Yeah, I I totally agree, And I think as an investor, you need to look at

your portfolio. You need to what to understand what's in it, and now is the time to kind of reposition your portfolio, take advantage. You know, this is not the time to get fearful. This is the time to get aggressive. I know T bills, you know, short term T bills are

paying three percent, looks real attractive. But when you look at every bowl market and to give up twenty the thirty returns which may came, which may come in the next year to two years, again, you have to be aggressive as an investor right here, prudently aggressive, but certainly aggressive. But is it what about somebody who's saying themselves. Okay, I want to be aggressive right now, but you know if I if I do this now, then two weeks or two months from now, we could see another twenty

percent to client, and I'll be kicking myself. We could always say that, like in the short term, I can tell you where things are going. I don't think anyone could predict it. But in the long term I could tell you three, five, ten years, it's the markets will be much higher than where we are today. But again, you need to be prudent, you know. I always say this thing. You know, you don't want to have beer muscles, you know, and being explained what beer muscles are? Charlie.

We're talking about this on our planning call this morning because our editor Paul Brennan, in his notes to us, brought it up. What are beer muscles? All Brennan? Is he shaking his head? Does he have beer muscles? What do He's got? Two thumbs up? Right now? Okay, good, all right, take it away, Charlie. Listen, we all have those beer muscle experiences in college that we wake up the next morning and regret. So many investors do the same thing in bull markets, you know, Bitcoin is the

greatest example of people flexing their beer muscles. And there's no right for many investors to have Bitcoin in their portfolio. But certainly it's the fear of missing out. Um and I can even name other names you know better companies like Netflix, Alphabet Um, some of these companies that are down thirty Yet investors were gearing up on owning these shares when they were two to three years away from

retirement because they were afraid of missing out. You have to stay disciplined, and you have to stay prudent in both good markets and bad markets, and that will help you get through any type of market. Netflix is down so far this year. It's wild. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you know, people think stocks can't come down until they come down. Markets go up, markets go down. We talk about it. Hey, Charlie, thank you so much, really appreciate and good to catch

up with you on this Friday. Charlie Maso, he's senior vice president financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. Your muscles, Carol, we had beer jackets and calls I want to call it in Central Maine where you know in January it's like zero degrees. Want to keep you warming, mean out in the cold. Yeah, so you have a few beers, you get a little warmer. Is that your jacket? Nice to note beer muscles, beer muscles. I thought beer muscles is like lifting, you know, a six pack in each arm,

something like that. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News