This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
We're gonna stick Matt and myself with the markets, kind of continue the conversation that we just started off with Scarlett and rom Maine. We do have the FEDS preferred measure of US inflation cooling. In May, consumer spending stagnated, so justin the economy's main engine is starting to lose a momentum. Meantime, Euro Area core inflation reaccelerated in June. That's a setback for the ECB. And you've got the latest PMI numbers out of China showing that economy's growth
momentum slowing further. It's a lot of moving parts globally. So to our eco chat, we go Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy correspondent Michael McKee on the phone in New York City and then on zoom in New York City. Apollo Global Management Chief economist and partner Torston. It's not great to have you two gents here with us might kick it off with us. Though when you look at
the numbers good inflation data, we consumer spending data. I don't know what's the really important points here today.
Well, I think the shocking news is that when you raise interest rates, the economy slows. As inflation starts to go down. The fan is having an effect. We saw personal spending rise just a tenth of eighty percent in the month of May. We've seen some weakness in there, and we saw reasonably good news. Put it that way. On the PCE inflation numbers. The headline number in particular up only a tent The core was of three tenths,
so there's still room to go. But we're starting to see some progress be made and that's reflected in the numbers that got later in the data. Sentiment numbers. We're all up for the University of Michigan, so people are feeling a little bit better about the economy.
Torson, let me bring you in here and also tell you I have actually created a slock button on my Bloomberg terminal, so I can hit it at any time and pull up the charts that you send me. They're really invaluable, so I want to just express my thanks for that. How do you see the FED right now, because it seems to me that everybody we talk to, and I'm going to sound like a broken record, but they don't believe that Powell is going to hike two
more times. And especially when we see PCE coming down, you mish expectations going out one year coming down pretty significantly. It doesn't seem that the Fed is necessarily going to have a reason to hike.
No, you're absolutely right.
I mean the issue is that the market is certainly of the belief that if it will not do much more. Strictly speaking, fit fund futures is still pricing one more hike in July. But I think the data today and to what Mike just said, I mean four point six year of a year on COPSE. We were also at four point six in December, So, as j Powell highlighted at the last press conference, they have not made progress as getting inflation.
Down towards two percent.
I completely understand there's a lot of issues and debates about what's happening to the shelter, the housing and component of inflation that may roll off a little bit. But now with housing recovering. Well, we may then see some
reversion later on. So I think that the FED would look at coinflation with important part for them and say, well, if that's at roughly five or four point six and that's where it was six months ago, we just cannot stop hiking rates, and we at least need to keep rates at these levels, as he said.
At the press conference, for a couple of years.
So the bottom line, Matt, to your point is that, yes, I understand headline is coming down. You miss short term also what's coming down. But the coinflation is not really making much progress at this point. It is still moving sideways, and I think the fedness telling us that we need all to take that more seriously.
But ken can inflation continue to rise when A, I mean consumer expectations are down. B. There's a lot of talk about household excess savings being gone. I mean, you sent me the FED paper from last week that showed they think there are no more excess savings in this system. And if we start to lose some jobs, people aren't gonna have the money to spend to support inflation.
Certainly, but as you know, none of that really has happened at this point. We're still looking at If I look at my Bloomberg terminal and look at what expectations out, so non farm payroll next week is two hundred and twenty five thousand, that's not a bad number. So if that's the case the Fed, we'll look at that and say we've got thirty nine.
Thousand jobs traded in April.
If we get two hundred and twenty five thousand in the month of I'm sorry, the month of June, then of course the conclusion would be that the economy is just not slowing down as quickly as they would like.
And with that backdrop, it makes sense that their remain hookers.
I completely agree that once the label mark starts cracking, that meaning falling apart, and we see the un empliner rate going up, then they we'll probably change the tone and talk about the other side of the dual mandate, maybe the labor market.
But that's not where we are at the moment.
So it makes complete sense also in CenTra earlier this week that they keep on being holkersh.
I want to bring Mike back into the conversation. Mike, while we're talking about us consumption. What's interesting is there was our Bloomberg Economics team putting out a story basically that the bulls are wrong to take comfort in solid spending. Basically, they're saying, how bulls offer and say, hey, there's strong consumption, that means things are okay, and that the US economies
nowhere near a recession. But what they basically say is that you don't start to see consumer spending slow down until we're actually in a recession, and that some measures of consumption are more important, like durable goods weigh in here on when you look at some of the personal consumption numbers, what's really really important in what the Fed probably pays attention to.
Well, that's paying attention to overall consumer spending, not on a data point by data point basis. They want to know that the economy is still seeing some strength. Now, it's true, as the economics people pointed out, that real spending has been lower after you adjust for inflation, it has been lower. It hasn't been anything to write all about. Still, it's been relatively positive, and we don't know whether it'll
start coming back or not. Maybe people take a breather, but you know, I don't think that the FED is too worried at this point about the consumer. They do think that spending is going to slow, that things are going to go according to their plan essentially, but at this point there's nothing that would cause them to think that they need to take any other action other than what is in the markets. At least one rate move and probably too.
So Mike, just to follow In terms of what's going on inside the FED, are they really unanimous in their thought? And I bring it up right, anonymous vote for that June pause at least that's what came out. But you've got you know, Raphael Bostik basically saying we're done. And I understand he's, you know, a non voting member, But is there more tension inside the FED that maybe says things could play out differently depending on the data come the next couple of meetings.
Sure there are people who are on the much more dubbish side. One of the more dubbish people, Austin Gouldsby, has deferred his decision on what he's going to do, saying he hasn't made up his mind yet, but he leans towards the dubtish side. And I think they could have a split vote if we see inflation staying where it is, or coming down just a little bit but
not enough, and consumer spending remaining strong enough. Because there are others Mickey Bowman, who has made a lot of comments about the economy being too strong and more needs to be done. We haven't seen a descent from a board member since two thousand and five, but one could imagine that she would and possibly some others.
Hey, Torson, I want to ask a question that I've got coming in from a listener. What level and unemployment breaks the consumer? We were talking about that and the broader economy. A higher unemployment means stress in credit card, real estate services spending, and we've seen certainly credit card usage jump and delinquencies start to rise as well, even before student loan debt kicks back in.
Absolutely and that so just on your final point, absolutely, what's really unique is to think about it. The unemployer rate is essentially still at the lowest level in fifty years, and we are already seeing delinquagy rates going up for credit cards, for auto loans, We're beginning to see the weekly data for bankruptcies for companies also beginning to move high. So why all these things already starting to slow down
even before the unemployer rate it has moved up. So I would take all that combined and answer your question by saying that, well, at least the feed says that in the long run, the unemployerent rate that we need to go above is roughly four and a half, and give it with we have three point seven. That means that we have several months ahead of us where the labor market needs to weaken before the event will begin to say Okay, enough is enough.
At J.
Powell again in Central and Portugal earlier this week very clearly said we need the label market to solve in which is another way of saying we need the unemployer rate to go up, and we have not really seen the unplroner rate go up meaningfully. And well that at least, in my view, one percentage point from here before we'll begin to see a more meaningful slow down in the broaday economy.
All right, guys, we got to run. Thank you so much Tristan Slock, chief economist and partner over at Apollo Global Management on the New York City, and our thanks of course to our own Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent at Bloomberg joining us on the phone in New York City.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or wants us Live on YouTube.
I want to get to some other news that certainly caught my attention on the Bloomberg today, the SEC pushing back against a wave of filings by asset managers to launch the first US exchange traded fun ETF that invest directly in bitcoin, Matt. They said, the applications lack clarity and further information is needed before they are considered for approval.
Yes, but they're going to get that. I think I saw that NASDAK is going to go back as well as the CBO. They're going to go back and refile answer the questions that the SEC had. I am really stumped as to the problems that the SEC has with a spot bitcoin ETF, because bitcoin has been acknowledged, even
by Gary Gensler. It's a commodity, and there are a lot of ETFs that hold commodities, and there are a lot of commodities that are volatile, just like Bitcoin is volatile, so I'm thinking back, if anybody can handle uh handle it, Blackrock and Fidelity probably could.
One would hope. So let's see what Timothy Tully has to say. He's see you at the digital asset wallet Xelcore Technologies. He's on Zoom from Bethany Beach, Delaware. Tim, good to have you back. It's been a few months here, so what do you make of this?
Glad to be here. First of all, thank you Busy Friday. Yes. Interesting. You know two days.
Ago we were talking about the two of the world's largest asset managers fifteen trillion dollars in assets filing for spot ets, right, so or the equivalent of five apples as of today.
Right.
And so today the SEC comes back and says, pushes back quickly. By the way, this pretty quick response under really under ten days to the Blackrock filing, saying lack of information and lack of clarity, and they need more information, specifically some of the surveillance monitoring that Blackrock and Fideli had proposed. So I think that's going to get ironed out. I actually think the quick response here is a good thing.
I do think it's ironic that the SEC is saying that their quick read says this has a lack of clarity, it's choking with irony.
But I think really is It's almost like Gary Gensler's joking. Is this some kind of satire?
It certainly feels that way, doesn't it. But look, I think the reality is I think we all knew who the CEO of Blackrock is. He's an aggressive democrat, He's plugged into what's going on. BlackRock's batting average, I think is five hundred and seventy five to one for their ETF filings. They're going to win this one over time.
The question is when it's going to happen. And I think for those of us in the crypto world, we kind of mixed feelings, right because this is a really good thing, particularly for the mass adoption crowd who sees two bell Weather companies that are going to offer access to bitcoin action in particular, and so I think that's great. I think that's great for crypto. It's going to be
great for the broader crypto market. I think for me, as somebody who's been in traditional finance for a long time, the genesis for ETFs was to give everyone access to commodities in particular, think about gold. Your average human couldn't store and and and hold gold. It was it's impossible to do that. So the ETFs were created. Blockchain technology is specifically designed to address that particular issue. So I
think this is good short, short term, long term. I hope we let the technology do its thing.
But the other thing I think, and I'm sure many I know many people have cited.
This in the news, but bitcoin holders are and this is I'm this has come from somebody who's been in the equity world's most of his career, right. Bitcoin holders are some of the longest holders, three to five years of holding bitcoin. So you've got to fix applot have assets, you've got a long holding, long hands holding bitcoin, and then you've got these huge players coming in the market
trying to buy up apply. Price can only go one direction when that happens, right, So it's going to be really interesting about the timing how far in front of the timing the market is. But I think we're going to see some really positive price action a bitcoin over time very quickly.
No, you've got to have the trust, you've got to have the belief in the asset, right, And it does look like we've had it for ten years and it's built up. Right now or today, we hit an inter day high on bitcoin as well. It was over thirty one thousand dollars. Hadn't been that high since June seventh. I think of last year and recall that it dropped
precipitously in the period a couple weeks last June. Right, I wonder about you know, my take on the crisis that we saw with FTX and the other exchange was kind of serves you right for for keeping your bitcoin in their centralized exchange, Like, that's not the point of this asset. You're supposed to hold it yourself at home, you know, maybe or wherever you like. But it's very easy to put in cold storage and keep it safe.
Right.
Absolutely.
I think we're going to see non custodial exchanges really flourish after this.
Couldn't agree with you more, Matt.
Obviously, my company is in the space of helping people individuals buystorm manage their own crypto.
So I think.
Your product, by the way, what is your what is your wallet?
So we have a non custodio solution.
We've been around for four or five years, multiplatforms, so you can get on desktop and mobile and basically every platform that you can think of. We support over seventy blockchains. So we believe in the ethos of whatever you want to hold, you can hold it on our wallet. And
we believe digital assets are here to stay. And we're spending a lot of time talking about crypto finance, but we really believe that crypto technology and all of insurance and real estate and tokenized assets like securities and other things, all those things will be digital assets that you'll want to store in custody yourself, and our solution will help you do that.
Well.
Wall Street definitely is with you on most of that, probably not the custody part, but clearly even the big banks know it's all going towards tokenization.
Absolutely.
Yeah, I get that part of it. I guess I just still wonder that we're still figuring it out exactly what cryptocurrencies are.
It's only been since two thousand and nine, Carol, I.
Know, but still I think, considering what we saw over the last year, I think regulators are right to be cautious as they move forward.
Yeah, well, what do you think about that, Timothy? I mean cautious. I get it, just seems like a little bit more than that and just.
Got about twenty five to thirty seconds.
Yeah, it absolutely feels like there's a lot more going on there. I think everybody that's in the space believes we need to have regulation, but we need clarity ourselves, right, So what we're getting is a lack of clarity from the administration and the SEC. And what we're seeing is a lot of countries outside of the US being more aggressive here. We want to be the innovation center for
the world. We're going to need to get our stuff together here to make sure that people want to stay and develop in the United States.
All right, Timothy, thanks so much. Have a great weekend and a great holiday. Timothy Tully, CEO at the Digital asset wallet Zelcore Technologies. Joining us on zoom from Bethany Beach, Delaware.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty Well women hold a third of P five hundred board seats for the first time ever after scores of men gave up their directorships in May, a long elusive goal that's been touted as a baseline for lasting change. The threshold was pastoring, the peak season for annual meetings when many directors retire, men Matt vacating four times as many seats than women. And this was according to a recent data compiled by our team here at Bloomberg, reported out by her Jeff Green, So we've seen a shift.
What's the matter?
Nothing?
Oh okay, you look, that's just my face perplexed. All right, well, let's get to you. We've a perfect guest. Carolyn Everson is board member of the not Worldwide, the global wedding marketplace. They operate in sixteen countries. She's also board member at the Walt Disney Company. Art under Armour. She is the president, a former president of Instacart, former VP of Global Business over at Meta, former corporate VP at Microsoft. We just wanted to lay it out and she joins us on Zoom.
You have an incredible, incredible background. Carolyn, Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
It's great to be on well and I want to start with your background, because what is it. First of all, we're going to get into corporate boards and we want to talk about the business of the knot. But you know, the media world, social media or the evolving traditional media world. What do you find interesting and do you think should be watched by our audience.
Well, I think the thing that is constant is change, and what I would say to the audience is lean into the change as much as possible, because the consumer in many ways is moving faster than even companies are. And this is there's a tremendous need for transformation still in twenty twenty three, and that was even prior to the advent of AI that everyone is talking about. There were still many traditional companies that had to transform everything
that they were doing. And now AI is further putting a further find point on that and accelerating change even faster.
So I mean, at the knot, does any change? Is any change still necessary? It seems like the business is very digital and very forward looking in terms of the way weddings are planned. I happen to know because I used the not to plan my wedding a couple of years ago.
Oh well, thank you, thank you.
Very much.
Well, look, the let me take a step back and just sort of set the context for the audience. The wedding industry is a two hundred and fifty billion dollar industry. It is extremely robust. Twenty twenty two was considered sort of the super Bowl of weddings because there was such
pent up demand. We had two point six million I dos in the United States alone this year'll it'll go back to pre COVID levels at about two point one million and then not have achieved its highest revenue and its history in twenty twenty two with four hundred million dollars in revenue, and it's been profitable for ten years. So it is a very strong business. And yet one of the reasons why I joined the board is I think that we are going to go through a pretty
massive transformation. When you think about the advent of AI and what it can do for wedding planning and allowing couples to speak in natural language and have them not be a real assistant to help them with their planning, I think it's going to be a phenomenal user experience. I think the data that we have to help our eight hundred and fifty thousand vendors to serve their customers better. Is just going to get stronger and stronger as we
utilize AI in our product development. So I'm very bullish about the opportunity. We currently operate in sixteen countries, We've got a lot of growth globally, and also it's a very nascent advertising business, and having been part of the team that helped build Meta's advertising business, I think there is a pretty significant opportunity for us to do that at the not What do.
You think though, in terms of you know, it's interesting that you went there. In terms of advertising and Meta, the evolution of ads maybe as a result of AI, Is it going to change dramatically? Should we all be kind of ready for something very different?
I think so.
I mean I'm already seeing significant change. So when you think about the scale at which companies do advertising these days across digital platforms, AI has actually been utilized by companies like Meta and Google for years to get the right ad to the right person at the right time. So it's not like those companies just woke up and at the end of November November thirtieth, when the world woke up to chat GPT, AI is being utilized in tech companies for many years to make the advertising smarter.
What I think you're going to see a big difference is in the creative development. What we're seeing now is using generative AI, marketers can literally put together thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of varieties of campaigns in a much more efficient and effective way than not has been experimenting with some of that. Marketing has already seen a twenty percent lift in conversion. So I think that's going to be a pretty transformational trend in digital advertising.
You talk about transformational and boards are transforming. You are part of that, and I am curious though, when you in a week where we saw Supreme Court rulings dealing with affirmative action, you rejecting the use of race in university admissions. We've been talking about, well, how does that maybe impact ultimately the business community. What are the conversations that boards or companies are having as we see these changes.
My experience through all the companies that I have the privilege of serving on is that they have an unwavering commitment to the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion, and that is not going to change. I think the goal is to have boardrooms represent a diverse set of individuals, because that's the customer base that these companies are representing. And diversity comes in many many forms. It can come certainly and ender and race, sexual orientation, but geography plays
a factor in some of the board's experience. You know, you have to have certain levels of experience to be on the audit committee, for example. And so each search that I have been part of, either for myself or in looking at new colleagues that could potentially join the boards that I'm on, there are a lot of criteria that the Board of Directors goes through and really thinks about what skill set does the boardroom need in order to help advise management, and that can span many, many
different areas. And I think that there is an unwavering commitment to making sure that boardrooms stay diverse, become more diverse, but with a big capital D, because diversity of thought can mean many different things.
Well, we've run out of time. I hope you will come back because there's many, many more things I would love to talk with you about, because I know you co founded the Gun Safety Alliance and I'm curious about which you work with business leaders and citizens to prevent unnecessary gun deaths in the United States. But I do would love to dig deeper into kind of the role of corporate activism, if you will so, Carolyn, I hope
you'll come back soon. Carolyn Everson, board member at the not Worldwide, also on the Disney board and more joining us on Bloomberg brother.
Marc a journal How about you let me drive?
Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?
Honey?
Please, I'll do the gravel.
Let's mate, I want to dry.
It's a good question.
This is the drive to the Globes dot com.
I think we'll buy yold.
It on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, everybody, we've got just about eighteen minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the day, the week, the quarter, the half, and the half. Yes, yeah, I forgot the half.
Well you know I would normally forget the half too, except for that stat at the NaSTA has had the best half since well ever, it has ever the best first half ever, in the best six months since nineteen ninety nine. But it's just I didn't even like realize this was going to happen until this morning.
You're not alone. Many people got the call on the markets wrong, and I thought it was interesting what Scarlett said earlier that here we are going into essentially a holiday weekend, right, it's going to be quiet. It's already kind of gotten quiet, and people are buying into this strille. I think volume though, I feel like it was a little bit lighter, but nonetheless, let's see what Ryan Kelly
has to say. He's chief investment officer and portfolio manager of at Hennessee Funds, co manager of the Hennessy Gas Utility Fund MidCap thirty as well, which has beaten nearly all of its peers for five years and running, returning on average about eleven percent annually, and the Hennessy Gas Utility Fund beating most of its peers too in the past year and month, up nearly few percent in the past one month. He joins us on Zoom from Chapel Hill,
North Carolina. Hey, Ryan, nice to have you back. It's been a little while this rally, especially from a handful of the big megacap tech names and the NAZACA performance. Does it make sense to you, Well, I.
Mean, you know, you have to look at where we are over two years and with you know, the Nasdaq being down so significantly last year and then roaring back this year. I mean, overall, it's it's in a more normal range, I guess i'd say, so, does it make sense? I mean it seems a little bit fast for this year, a little bit, a little bit aggressive. It's been driven by a lot of you know, future promises, the future promise of AI.
You know, that's part of it.
Although I really enjoy what you said earlier about your iPhone being basically utility, because that's true.
I mean it comes to Apple. They're not really driven by the whole AI crazy.
They just continue to do, you know, two hundred billion dollars in sales every year, and what are you going to do with that?
It's pretty amazing. So I don't think it's overdone.
I think that probably in the second half the year, you might see, you know, slow down in some of those sectors that have really done exceptionally well. We've seen consumers do very well. Consumer discretionary has has really outperformed this year, as well as the large cap tech names. It's a it's a reversion of the meme, and I think that we probably would not expect a similar kind of experience next half of the year, but again over two years, it's a little.
Bit more normal over time.
Yes, I want to say thank you for adding that, for bringing us down to earth, because Rian, I hadn't really even thought about that all day. I've just been wrapped up in the hype of Wow, what an incredible half that was, and wow, Apple's a three trillion dollar company, and you know, we're on a tear, you know, even into just today's trade. But you know, the high we shouldn't forget, for the for the Nasdaq one hundred at least, was at the end of twenty twenty one, and we
came really clattering down last year. It was an awful year, and anybody who was even holding the cues, you know, took a huge hit last year compared to you know, the game that we've seen in the first half. They haven't come back from that. So I think it's great to get that perspective. What do you think happens as well, when you know, people start to rotate into fixed income, that's got to be a move, right, especially with yields
at this level. If you think the Fed's done, it looks like people are making that move, some of them today.
It's true, I mean, it's fixed income, it's high yields on anything that has a yield. In other words, we've seen that pretty significantly all last year and then dramatically in the first quarter of this year, where people have been pulling money from the banks and moving and elsewhere. Now you know, some of it's gone into the equity markets, a lot of it's probably gone into you know.
Higher yielding money market funds.
And when you get rates up at that level, and the long term return for say the Dow over one hundred and forty years, one hundred and four years, I should say, is close to ten percent, and you can get five and a half percent with very little risk, you know, it's it's compelling. But you know, overall, I think that that money rotation is happening. But at the end, but on the other hand, that's really what's also driving a lot of this outperformance of the stock market in general, and that's cash.
People have a lot of cash to invest.
Still, a lot of people who put their money in the bank to do nothing with it for many years now have opportunities to invest in equities or in fixed income, and you know, cash on balance sheets of companies that makes the companies stronger, they can reinvest in their own stock through buybacks, they can give back higher dividends, so you know, cash continues to drive this higher as well.
All right, what's not really driving the market higher at least here in twenty twenty three are the energy names. It's the worst major industry group or worst performing groups major industry group in the S and P five hundred out of eleven. It's down about seven percent. Now, mind you, it's after two blockbuster years where there was way out performance. But you guys have a fun where you have to think about utilities, gas utility in particular.
So what is it?
Where are you finding opportunities there?
Sure, well, you know we're finding opportunities in utilities because it's actually not as much well it's not really dependent on the price of natural gas or the price of oil, or the price of whatever input there is to create the energy. You know, these utilities like your iPhone, you use it every day.
You have to use the energy.
You know you need that.
And you know, utilities make money by basically moving in this case natural gas through their pipelines to the end customer.
So you know, there's actually believe it or not.
A pretty significant opportunity in utilities. I understand, utilities are defensives, utilities paid dividend, they have that you know, nice downside protection.
But if you look forward.
Over you know, many years and even many decades, this push towards the electrification of everything, towards a cleaner energy future means that we need an incredible build out of the utility sector. And you know, in our fund, we have about fifty percent of the fund is invested in electric and multi utilities, which have both you know, some natural gas components.
Even the natural gas utilities.
There's a lot of opportunity there as well as they continue to develop hydrogen, you know, a renewable natural gas, et cetera. But this really, you know, and I have to give credit to some of your analysts at Bloomberg. They did an incredible job, especially in the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Division. I'm going to read some of these numbers. It's going to take one hundred and ninety six trillion dollars by twenty fifty to reach the goals that we
need to get. It's going to take you know, clean energy is eight gigawatts of capacity now it needs to go to forty you know you need to add sixty nine million miles of cable. So the way utilities work are when they invest in their business, when they invest in Radom r Grid, that team's growth for the company and that BILS earning over line.
Well, breach, get your perspective and also bring us down to Eric Obecca the run up that we've seen, certainly on the tech side of things. Tech stocs, Ryan Kelly, have a good weekend at Hennessey Funds.
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