Ukrainian Resistance Has Russia Rethinking Strategy

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News Present bundes in Poland, his second stop today, taking him to Warsaw. He has

met with US troops, He's meeting Ukrainian refugees. He's expected to also make a major address tomorrow, and one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg is about how the buying administration officials are worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin may lash out dangerously as Russian troops find themselves bogged down in Ukraine and Western sanctions begin to bite. Tim. It's a lot to digest, it is. Unfortunately, we have Anne Marie Horder and Washington correspondent for Bloomberg TV with

us now on the phone from warsaw Enemory. You've been in Europe before the president, since before the president even arrived. Um, how would you characterize what he's accomplished thus far on

the trip versus what he set out to accomplish. Yeah, Luckily I actually used to live here, so I could say as well that there is a sense of there's a welcomeness in Europe right now, and you can see that in the Poles as well for this administration and actually of the unity they've brought and I was thinking Poland, there's definitely a sense that they want to welcome and have Ukrainian refugees. That the president did today called them

their guests. You haven't only seen that in European countries, with refugees coming through other countries, notably a few years ago from Kyria. It's hard to characterize the success right because these trips are very much so also symbolic. But

yesterday was a school of diploma scene. He had NATO had cours G seven Extraordinary meeting, and then he went and a dressed the European uh Commission and you did walk go away with a feeling that leaders are united in terms of wanting to make sure there is resolve and standing up to President Puchin. The big question is

going forward, how far can this last? It will be pressured to increase sanctions, but also there's gonna be a lot of uh pushback and reverberations on all of these economies as well, especially in Europe, which are very reliant on Russia, including a number of businesses but most notably natural gas in oils. So, and I think we've talked with you about this before. So who is kind of

the leader on all of this. I am curious if everybody is looking to President Biden or is it really you know, European leaders, because they are obviously geographically and you know, economically, going to feel and are in feeling the impacts of this, uh, you know, much more severely, much more closely than the US is well. Definitely the United States is taking a headlestand in all into but

they have been in luck sets. If there's a lot of stuff with the European leaders that and they remind you of that that what they are doing, they are doing alongside their partners. When it comes to Europe's very difficult because this is a union of a number of nations that they're only as strong as their weakest link, in the sense that they can only go as tough as they're willing to as all the countries are willing

to go. So I think the Latin in president yesterday, he says he's ready to cut off Russian oil and gas. He says, we shouldn't be paying for this, it's we're paying for Ukrainian blood, and he says there's a cost of freedom. But then you talked to Germans who very much so want to loosen their dependence on oil and gas,

which we should note is a complete one. Eight when we saw into the Mercal chancellorship who really wanted to have this nord stream too, and SPD had a lot of not her exactly, but the stbc He party had a lot of connections with Russia. And now you see them even going to cut her. Looking to nine stats, they're building l ND terminals, so you see that there are cracked. But I would say that it would be Germany given how big that economy is and how reliant

they are, specifically when it comes to natural gas. About fifty five coming from Russia. One thing we've been grappling with, as far as questions go and ray for the last month or so has been on the other side of this what things look like and when you know, without trying to, without asking you to prognosticate or even predict what happens. I'm wondering how the appetite for decreasing reliance on Russian energy, how to what extent that actually sticks

across the continent. Yeah, you know, we just don't know yet. The way the infrastructure set up is that r Extream one a number of other pipelines about the third of natural gas goes through Ukraine. Actually they get billions of transit feeds like these, like an ev path almost are allowing that gas to go through. But you do see Europe looking for other alternatives. Now, Europe was already putting a lot of money in investment in renewable they wanted

to elector by their continent. But now, I mean, it is pretty astonishing seeing the German economy minister who's the leader of the Green Party show up and cut her to try to ink ellen g deal. And he had said when he was in Doha, we may have to be rely on Russian guests for the next month, maybe in a year, but this might not always be the case, and he who has ears should listen. So really availed

threat to President m Hey. One of the benefits of having you actually out there on the ground with the President as he makes his moves around Europe is what you are seeing directly, something that I can't Tim can in our studio and most of Americans can't do. What have you been seeing? And we've just got about a minute left. Well, I'll just say quickly at the moment I'm stuck on a street corner with the President, Motoricata,

just come through to the security everywhere. But you cannot walk a block in Warsaw right now without seeing individuals. I'm looking at a woman right now wrapped in the Ukrainian flag. I'm seeing people sell Ukrainian flags and seeing Ukrainian flags and Rauciti everywhere. This is a city that is standing in solidarity with Kiev, and that is very apparent the moment you step off the plane. All right,

we'll save travels, kiddo, and really appreciate it. We know you've been running around a lot, but really great to check in with you. Bloomberg TV Washington or Bloomberg I should say TV and Radio Washington correspondent and Marie Horden joining us. She's on the ground in Warsaw, Poland, and she's been there with the President as he moves around. Yeah, we're also expecting to hear from the President once again tomorrow, following up on yesterday's major addressed from what I understand right,

so we'll see what he has to say. Um. But the energy, you know that Energy news and then working at a deal of the EU to get more US l n G. We've seen that impact some of the E n P players. I mean, energy has been to standout performer last year this year, but you definitely see different sectors move based on these different headlines. Questions, Carol, is it a permanent shift on the other side of this, it's a question we've been grappling with for weeks. You

make deals, right, they stick around own. I guess something. All right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. We're just getting started on this Friday. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. As we've been talking about Germany's COVID situation. It is getting worse meantime. Just yesterday we talked with Bloomberg's Ian Marlowe about how Hong Kong went from zero to one of the worst areas of the world when

it comes to COVID in the health pandemic. So what does that mean for the United States and the next few weeks here at the Round. Well, that's a question that we're gonna post to. Dr Ian LUs Bader, clinical professor of medicine at n y U Lang's Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from New York City, Dr Lusbader, how are you hey? Happy Friday, guys. So

everyone is doing well? Yeah, we're good, Thank you. Um So, I was startled to see this UK COVID headline among the others that Carol read surging by one million in just a week. Oftentimes with over the last two years what's happened in the UK, we've seen happen here in the United States. Is this any exception, you know, like nineteen the Spanish flu. You don't want to always compare one pandemic to another, but so far I think that's

provided a pretty good model. Um It took about three years, and I think we're still seeing a number of places around the world that are seeing a surge another wave of COVID, in this case primarily over crowned the B A two variant, which is much more transmissible, maybe fifty more transmissible, fortunately not more deadly. And we're really seeing this in different parts of the world. For example, in China and Hong Kong, they tried the lockdown approach. We've

seen data that that does not work well. Their vaccination rates were not particularly high as a small island um. They also used the sign of fact vaccine, which we don't really know that much about where it is unclear how effective that is. And certainly for many of the people in uh China and Hong Kong, they've only had one or two vaccines, not the three or now that we're contemplating four here, not nearly as much as in

the US. So I don't think we can really compare different parts of the world, but certainly the surge in the UK is concerning. I think we're in a better position in the US. I think our case numbers are dropping. Could we see another minor peak um with the B two variant. I think we might we're not seeing an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. And I think part of that is because we've been generally very good with vaccines

and you know, MOUs and sort of simple procedures. But I think we have a lot of antibodies around, both from getting ill and uh and from vaccinations. Well, okay, because it's funny some of the conversations Ian. I mean, I've you know, things have happened in terms of contract contact tracing, even at our office, you know, been reached out where I kind of thought, wait, everything was getting coming. Let's say, if I just want to say, you're four feet away from me. So, so how do we because

of those antibodies? Because I've had three shots, Um, it doesn't mean I won't have some symptoms, but or or I could possibly or anybody could or or nothing. Right, I mean that's kind of where we are because of because of mutation, people can have they kind of their three shots, can have had COVID or the alpha variant and are often still getting O macron. But what we're noticing is it's very mild. And in your case, you

you had a positive swab, but really no symptoms. Wasn't a false positive maybe, but we're seeing very mild to to really no symptoms, some people a little bit more with cough and and laryngitis. So I think I had that variant, But I think the key metric is hospitalizations and fatal disease. And really what I would say is many people are concerned should I get a fourth vaccine right now? Cdc UH is limiting it. Really the only

people who are im you know, compromised. My bet, like israel As, we will approve it for people sixty five and older or people with underlying disease, and I would say, yes, if you're in that high risk group, sure it's worth taking another vaccine. How effective that is not quite clear because remember we keep giving alpha boosters and the and the virus has mutated. You know, if we could develop an omicron vaccine, that would make a lot more sense in your view, Dr LUs Beder, Have we gone from

pandemic to endemic yet? I think we're in that transition, and if we see covid in the full, which we might, my bet is it will be more of an endemic. We might get you know, flu shots combined with COVID shots. But in my mind, I think we need to. What this tells me is we need to work harder on an appropriate vaccine like omicron and a universal vaccine for coronaviruses which would protect against other common cold viruses. Yeah,

and there's a story in the Bloomberg about that. Uh and also in our weekend show looking at booster development and ongoing. Hey, Ian, thank you so much, have a great weekend. Ian LUs Beda, Dr Ian las Beda over at n y u Lango Medical Center. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim

Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. A lot going on on the Russian Ukrainian front today, you know that, And that includes something that we heard thanks to our Bloomberg's Maria today or she caught up with Ukrainian President Zelinski's chief of staff igor Zakova, and he told her the Ukraine will never surrender. He don't want the peace agreement on the Russian terms. They wanted us to have a peace agreement on the Russian forms at the beginning. They wanted to

all their provisions to be implemented, all their demands of dreadlines. No, but we don't have any agreement any any peaceful agreement or the peaceful women at any terms. We will want the peaceful women at Ukrainian terms because we're served in West. Survivan again that as Ukrainian President Zelanski's chief of staff Egorzakova. Um, we are so lucky to have access to this next guest, her expertise and Russian President Vladimir Putin has just been

uh so important and valuable to us. Back with us as Angela Stent, Senior advisor to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, also served as a National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council and before that served at the U. S Department

of State. Her latest book is on Vladimir Putin. It's entitled Putin's World, Russia against the West End with the rest once again on the phone from Washington, d C. Angela, thank you again for just checking in with us or giving us some time again. Um, where are we on this? What do you think might be next? In terms of

Vladimir Putin's efforts and moves? So interestingly enough, the Russian military today held a press conference and said, well, actually we're just going to focus on securing the Donbass region, that's the region in southeastern Ukraine with the two separatist entities.

So suddenly they're not talking anymore about the whole of Ukraine, about Kiev, and they're saying, well, we never meant to do anything else but that anyway, which of course is completely different from what they said a few weeks ago. If that's true, then that means that, you know, the Ukrainians have successfully been resisting them. They're not going to be able to take key of any time soon. So we'll have to see what this brings in the next few days. So what do you make of that specific move?

I mean, is that a way for Putin in his military to to save face, to get out. It appears that it could be they could say we said all along we wanted to secure these republics. Uh, they will have them secured, and they can say now we know that, you know, the Ukrainian quote unquote fascists and Nazis won't get them, and we can go home. I mean, I wouldn't jump to conclusions that's that's going to happen immediately,

but they are giving themselves now a way out. It is there there there a lot of questions about whether or not Zelinski and the Ukrainians would actually seed on the don Bus region right there. Certainly is and you know it would depend. Then you'd have to have negotiations and you'd have to see, you know, what the Russians are demanding and what the Ukrainians are willing to concede. And obviously there you know, if they've done well the Ukrainians as they have, they're going to be tougher in

these negotiations. But is this just a case if indeed we see President Putin and Russia retreating on this, is this just a case of okay for now, but that his intentions haven't really changed about his uh feelings and plans for Ukraine. Yeah, I don't think we can say at this point that his intentions have changed. I think that he you know, his goal remains the subjugation of Ukraine and having a government in power and KEIV that's pro Russian and gives up on trying to join the West.

Those were his goals you know, years ago, months ago, and they remained the same. But you know, you could at least have a lot, You could have a siege fire. You're gonna have a regrouping, and then let's see what happens going forward, and let's see if Russia changes some of its gold depending on how badly all of these sanctions hit. Going forward, if there is a regrouping, what

happens to the rest of the world. Has have things changed indefinitely at this point, whether it comes to where Europe gets its energy, whether it comes to strengthening of NATO, has that changed at least for the mid term. I'm

trying to think of duration, what's the right duration. Have these kind of changed They definitely, yeah, I think they definitely have, because you know, the Europeans, outside world has realized that Russia undertook this unprovoked invasion in the middle of Europe, causing this humanitarian catastrophe, refugee crisis, displaced persons. We've heard that Ukrainians have been abducted and taken to

different locations in Russia. So nobody is you know, going to It's not going to go back to what it was before. The question is whether the conflict would in fact be over um at some time in the near future, and that meant might that make people rethink things? But I think for the medium term, nothing's going to change. People are going to realize that the system we had before Febry twenty four, before the invasion is broken, and you know, something needs to be done to fix it.

Just real quickly. What's medium term that? Three five years? Yeah, I mean it's it's it's a few years. I would say, definitely, definitely, Angela. You wrote a book, as Carol mentioned, called Putin's World, Russia against the West and with the rest. What do you think is going on in Putin's head right now? How do you think he is feeling and how do you think he how do you It's hard to be

It's impossible to predict what he's going to do. But given that he thought he was going to take Keep in a matter of hours or days, and here Russian troops are in a stalemate outside many of the major cities right now, well, I mean, he must be very angry at those advisors of his who reinforced what he wanted to believe, which was this was going to be a cakewalk and the Ukrainians were going to concede, you know, within seventy two hours. So he must be very angry

at that. I think he's amazed, really by the fact that you've had allied unity on these very tough sanctions. I don't think he thought the sanctions like this would be imposed, and now Russian has to scrambled to see how it's gonna deal with you sanctions going forward. Uh, he's and I think he's seen, um, you know, very surprised by Ukrainian resistance. Hey, really quickly twenty seconds, because

you understand this world. Do you think the oligarchs are calling him up and saying enough already, Vladimir, knock it off just quickly. Well, they may be, but they don't really have that kind of influence over him. The people who have influence overhead of the people from the security said this is not the oligarchs. You're a gem. Thank you so much. When we heard all the news and headlines again this morning, we're like, this is who we want to talk to. So Angela, thank you so much.

Aways appreciated. Angelis Stent, advisor to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies. Check out her book called Putin's World. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio flet of crypto headlines among them, and Caroline mentioned at Caroline Hyde earlier about eight Ether up for a second day,

extending it's a performance compared with Bitcoin. There's a lot of excitement over an upcoming software upgrade, promises to reduce the blockchains carbon footprint, paved the way to improve the network scalability and efficiency. So that's given a little bit of a boost. Let's get into it with our next guests. We're really pleased to be joined by Bret Harrison, who's president of f t X US. Before f t x he was the head of semi systematic technology at Citadel Securities.

Before that, he was at Jane Street, where you led the firm's algorithmic trading system development. Brett, good to talk to you again. How are you Yeah, great to talk to you too. How are you We're doing well? Thanks. Um. I want to start with just what you're seeing on the platform right now. We did talk just a few moments ago about the rise of is that we're seeing with Bitcoin is up for a second day in a row. It's getting another bid today, best levels in more than

a month. What are you seeing on f t X USS platform. Yeah, we're definitely seeing increased volumes across the board. Um. The top asset on the platform right now is Ether, a lot of excitement around as you mentioned the upcoming upgrades on Ether promise about future scalability, lower transaction costs or emissions, and so Ether followed by Bitcoin, followed by Salona the top three assets on ft X. You asked today, so what would you say an increase in volume? Give us,

give us some numbers, were Bloomberg. We're nerdy, we like to know numbers. So how much are you seeing an increase in volumes? And I'm curious about types of users new users? What kind of growth are you seeing there? Sure? Um, generally speaking, dish increase, uh, compared to let's say the last month or so. UM, we are are bought volumes tends to have and slow, not just with you know, increasing prices, but also with just general volatility and a

lot of institutional market makers. On the last form UM users send a just subtly increase. Of course, it's not just the prices of assets, but also the budget that we've been putting into marketing and trying to acquire and used onto the platform as well. Hey, Brett. Um, I want to I want to talk a little bit about follow you on Twitter. A lot of people follow you on Twitter. I'm not the only one. UM. I want to, uh just get you to expand on something that you

tweeted last week. It was all about marijuana related companies and digital assets, cannabis and digital assets, and you know, I think a lot of our listeners are familiar with the the challenges that these cannabis companies face because they are not able to use banks per se. They poured a lot of cash. You see security guards outside of cannabis shops right now as a result of that. Um, what did you mean when you said that that that cannabis that digital assets could really help when it comes

to cannabis. So, something that we're looking at in general, and not just with cannabis companies, but underbanked and unbanked populations in general are ways in which people might not have access to traditional financial services and their disadvantage as a result. So, for example, UM, even in Chicago where we live, there are people who are underbanked or unbanked.

They get paid as a paycheck, in as an actual physical check, and instead of being able to cash out of a bank, they have to go to a local currency exchange and give away thirty percent of their paycheck just to cash that check. And crypto exchanges having these modern banking services can provide some of these kinds of depository services that otherwise banks have provide, and to do so with better technology, with mobile applications. Also global remittances,

being able to transmit payments, you know, across border for example. Uh, someone who is sending paysouse back to their family in Mexico from Chicago. Again, they're gonna get killed the currency exchange. So it's not just with with cannabis companies in general. We're looking at cases where crypto exchanges can help using uh, you know, borderless quick low fee transactions, using stable coins, other kinds of cryptos to be able to assist in

places where financial services aren't really available. Gotta say, Rosscober certainly well known to our audience. We have them on. He's like, do it when it comes to I think somebody commenting on your Twitter feed, which we've been playing for our YouTube viewers, you know, rosscarversing, do it when it comes to a crypto option. If there is a crypto option for cannaby cannabis, um Brett. Do you think it will be its own or is it tapping into ethereum or is it tapping into bitcoin? What is it?

I think there's probably none of the above. The first goal would be would be to be able to use just you know, for example, stable coins like USDC, some sort of digital form of us D where you're not exposed to the politi atility of crypto, but you are getting the benefit of digital currencies being easy to hold, easy to transfer, um able to to be to hold those in in a wilet where they might not be able to hold those in the bank account right now,

Really interesting stuff again, tweeting and comes like a stay tuned speaking of well, speaking of staying tuned, I want to talk a little bit about f t X stocks, because we did that as we approached the launch date for f t X stocks. We look forward to sharing more on how we're thinking about the above questions, mainly payment for order flow, how you're going to offer the opportunity for people to trade stocks on the platform, uh, and quote the decisions that we've made. UM. Do you

have a launch date for f t X stocks? When are you think abou launching not yet, but um let's say sometime in the next couple of months for sure, And how do you anticipate paying for it? Payment forward to flow is something that you talked about in the in the tweet thread, but you brought up some challenges when it comes to payment forwarder flow, So what does that look like? Yeah, again, we're gonna be happy to

share those to get closer to launch date. In the meantime, we're exploring a couple of different options for possible or order outing and execution. You know, for us, our primary business is crypto and it is currently a pretty high margin business where there are still per trade fees as the norm on ft x U s are fees are something like se lower than many of our competitors in the space. Um, so we take that very seriously, but

it's still a pur trade commission or fee. So the primary goal of having stock on the platform might not necessarily be to generate the maximum possible profit from the stock trading, to give people a holistic investing experience that captures those users onto a platform, putting your deposits at one place and engaging in both the crypto and the stock side from the same interface, Bret, so, is it a launch maybe in the first half or second half?

Just quickly aiming for first half. All right, we're gonna leave it there. We really appreciate your time. Have a great week in Brett Harris and he's the president of f t x US joining us on the phone in Chicago. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Carl Master, Tim Stanovic. This is Bloomberg Radio. I'm yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the riding. I want to drive. It's the question. This is the drive to the globe thing? Well, radios, it just about

ten minutes left in today's treating session. Yeah, I know, right, Yeah, it's crazy. Uh yeah, it's been a busy another busy day here, um and we've been bounced around though. It's really it does feel like stocks just looking for direction here. Yeah, I mean, it's literally what I've been thinking about for the top of our what Tim said to me in the break. But it's true. It's it's gone between gains

and loss today at least ten times. It's traded within a relatively narrow range about one percent today, so really struggling for direction. Let's get into it with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. He joins us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, how are you. Yeah, it's good to have you back with us. UM, help us give us your take of what's going on with the market right now, because usually when we talk to

you are pretty bullish when you're looking at these technicals. Um, but we haven't talked to you since the most recent sell off and you know, close to recovery that we've seen over the last what ten days or so. What do you make of it? Yeah? Pretty amazing, right, I mean, you know we were looking at one of the larger two week bounces we've seen in years. I mean, thoughts are, like you said, kind of flatish today, but for the last couple of weeks were higher. Um. You know, there's

just a lot of ways to look at it. I guess I'll start it like this. You know, the first fifty trading days of this year, the SMP five hundred was down ten percent. That's one of the worst starts ever, was sixth worst start ever two a year. You look at the other previous worst starts ever. Though we've had some really big comebacks, most recently two thousand nine and

two thousand twenty, really big comebacks. And the last point on this March for whatever reason, has been kind of a bear market killer, right two thousand three, two thousand nine, two thousand twenty. So yeah, markets, markets, you know Mark Twains about you know history under Pete at the Rhymes, we think, once again we could be looking at another March low. I mean, it really feels like that and that could be an opportunity here. Um once again, why

isn't this just a bear market bounce? Yeah? That the ultimate question, Carol, and I think when you look at our take is this bear market bounces there like a day or two, they're really strong. I mean, what happened last week? We had four straight days on the SMP of at least a one percent game. That is extremely rare when you go back in history, it's only happened four other times. And the two most reason we're the right at the election in twenty and then in late

eighty two. When you look a year after four straight days of one percent gain in a small sample size, I'm all admit only four times, but higher at least twenty every time up twenty eight percent on average. We're not saying we're gonna be higher twenty percent a year from now. In fact, we don't probably think that, but it is saying that blast of strength we've just seen recently isn't the hallmark of a bear market balanced but likely a kind of a kickoff of potentially move bullish cycle. Well,

it's interesting, and you know it's funny. Who was it? It was it um who was on our ear earlier today? Was it who mentioned? It was? It was Mike Reagan who talked about the two underday moving average and he had this caveat on the SMP. But he had a real caveat with with technical analysis right now, because there are so many fundamentals that can really change the way investors are thinking about the economy. Weather, that's rising energy prices, UH,

the terrible war in Ukraine in Ukraine, UH, inflation and more. Ryan, how do you how do you balance that with the technical analysis? Oh? No, we'd agree. There's an old saying, right news Trump's charts, if you get bad news and

that can that can matter more. But I think also you think about two weeks ago, just the expectations were solo record put the call ratios, headlines are terrible, Investment polls were very low, huge cash on the sidelines, all the stuff the hallmark of kind of what you tend to see near lows, and any good news that have to be like great news. There's any less bad news

and you can get a rally. And let's not forget the smartest guys in the room, in my opinion, are the credit markets, right, Credit spreads, high yield, you know, investment grade spreads, they've all they've popped a little bit, yes, but they've come back significant lead. We don't think this is like a big credit event that's taken place. It's more of a standard run of the mill, you know, fifteen or so percent correction like we saw in the smp E fron Pike the trough, and that's you know,

kind of what happens when you have almost rally. So we're not overly concerned when the credit markets are still pretty calm here. But we did talk about this week that as we saw kind of an upticking stocks again, that the volume was down. So it did feel like that there wasn't that much conviction despite the game. So how do you explain that, Yeah, no, you're you're right, Carol, And I'll tell I mean two years ago right now, I remember exactly two years ago now we started bouncing

off the lows. We heard the same thing. Volumes low, volumes low. I mean, we're not ignoring it, but I've heard this for a while now. I mean, you know, one one other thing to think about here. Um, you know we're almost to April, and maybe volumes light, okay, but just remember April cls the strongest month the last

twenty years. April is the strongest month and the last birthday month, and I just think it's maybe master birthday already acta the indicator, the indicator, and then the last ten years the second best month, so and your birthday months, so happy early birthday. But all those things to mind, there is still some seasonals that could be at play. Let's say, you know, you stay above that two day like you guys talked about, could be a little higher still. Yeah,

I mean there's a fair amount of fundamental stuff. And I mean, I do think we we've talked a lot about FED policy, and I think it's fair to say, I mean there's a lot of people getting a lot more aggressive. Jo felt he was a lot more aggressive this week. Certainly Jim Bullet and even other FED officials to some extent saying, you know, we could we could see five points shift it was, but not all of them. No,

not all of them. But I would I would think an aggregate, I mean, such a shift from last week he did debate at the next Some people would say, vibe shift in this stand. Could even be a food fight at the next FOMC. I doubt it. I got it all right. So where do you put new money to work? That's always kind of my you know, million dollar, billion dollar, trillion dollar question, Ryan, do you put keep it on the sidelines, just wait to see where this is going? Have you missed the bounce back at least

for the time being? Um, what would you say? Yeah? First of all, I'd love to see a food fight at the set. I think they can make pay per view and make a lot of money with that one. But anyway, Um, you know, I've become only guys for a while sing we like cyclical value. That's still the camp we like. We don't think you've missed it. I mean, you know, energy industrials, materials, um financials, those groups we've liked for a long time, and they've been doing really well.

We still think that's where investors probably should be tilting their portfolios are a little more even weight. As it pertains the technology. You have a big problem with it, but we just think cyclical value is still just kind of brought you to the party, and we still like like a lot of those areas going forward. You mentioned, like what's over bought or not, I mean banks or where they were in two thousand and eight, right, A

lot of them are. So it's not like banks are that over bought, so they're still in our view opportunity there. You know, it's just a shame rying that you're just so negative, just kidding, just kidding, Ryan D. Trick, Thank you so much. Good to check in with you again, Ryan D. Trick, He's chef Markets Rigs over at LPL Finance. Is a good one for a Friday, Carolina. Yeah, I mean and looking at you know, some of the historical trends and certainly some of the articles are telling him

I know, no, I get it. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News