U.S. Prisoners Dreading The Pandemic’s End

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Bear with us for a moment, everyone, because there is a ton of headlines when it comes to COVID and the variants and the vaccine among them. We've got Japan to clearing a new state of emergency of a growing coronavirus cases which will run throughout the Olympics. A local newspaper reporting fans are expected to be excluded

from all events in Tokyo and the surrounding areas. Tim. We've got Africa having its worst week of the pandemic, number of weekly cases rising as the delta variant spreads cross the continent, the situation expected to worse and according to the World Health Organization, and we've got that big

blockbuster number, the Pandemics global depth toll surpassing four million. Yeah, and even here closer to home, Carol, New York City will reduce classroom sizes, also embark on curriculum changes when the US is largest public school system reopens fully in person in September. The US also not ready to lift restrictions on international passengers, and we'll take a conditions based approach to any relaxing of rules. That's according to Transportation

Secretary Pete Buddha Judge. And we see lots of warnings over in France against vacationing their citizens, vacationing in Spain and Portugal. Forgive us for indulging us, because there's so many headlines and we really want to get our next guest thoughts on all of it. Dr Vino Polly is founder and CEO of My Doctor Urgent Care, also the chief COVID vaccine officer at My Doctor. He joins us

on the phone in New York City. Uh, Dr Vena Polly, I should say thank you for indulging us, because it feels like once again, we are inundated by headlines concerning uh covid, the variant in particular, and it does feel like all of a sudden things were moving along in a good fashion, a positive fashion, all of a sudden it feels like we're slowing down again. Hi, Hi Caroline, Tim, it's great to be with you guys. Yes, of course,

delta variant is definitely concerning. It's already in a hundred focus. As you mentioned, uh it's a highly transimous evo and multiplying at a very fast space. It's the fastest fitness and somewhat worrisome variant. And with all these reopenings that are going on everywhere in most countries and then the US, it's definitely a worrisome variant. Should it be worrisome to people who have been vaccinated? So the question is folks that are already vaccinated, are they getting these in factions?

I think there's once news that came out of Israel that even if you're vaccinated, you can still get uh covid and section. So with delta variant, what that means is we already know this news that even if you're vaccinated, they will be breakthrough infections. But the good news about the vaccines is that eight decreases hospitalizations, severe complications, and death. And the Israel News actually felt us that it is the vaccines are effective in decrease in serious competitions, in

death and those are the outcomes of want. So if you're vaccinated, even with the delta variant, which is more contagious, spreads much more quickly and is more virulent, if you will, um, you're protected, is what you're saying. Correct, you are, So all the three vaccines that we have in the United States will protect you against delta variant. And and the recent studies that came out a couple of weeks ago showed that most hospitalizations, severe complications, and deaths have occurred

in patients who are not vaccinated. So yes, it is going to protect your games delta variance if you're vaccination. Okay, But if you're not vaccinated in the United States, and if we start to have pockets around the country where we see cases rise, how could that be more problematic

to the wider population? So so remember, uh, one thousand counties in the US or vaccinated less and we have very densely populated areas where vaccination grates are low southeast Midwest, you know listens with the Alabama you mean it, you know. We can go down the list, but including New York City in the Bronx and Brooklyn, we have pockets where folks are not vaccinated. So when you are unvaccinated people, the violets multiplies at a rapid uh pace and spreads.

So that's a concern. Vaccination grates are really pertical, uh to look at what's the best way to get people who I mean, it's hard to even really even I don't know the answer to this, the best way to get people who were hesitant before. If if this doesn't get them to get vaccinated, what does so? So then I think it's really important to understand we have African

Americans folks who are not vaccinated or only vaccinated. The majority of African Americans Hispanic Native Americans who are not vaccinated. How do we convince them? There has been a lot of misinformation, so we have to come back back. I think the key thing is to be communication, one in one basis listening and counter any misinformation, have conversations and give them facts. I think the message is loud and clear.

If you're unvaccinated you are at risk not only for infection, but getting serious complications, hospitalizations, going into respect to say year, going down a ventilator, and even death. So the message is very loud and clear and be as health care workers, of media, political leaders, community members, family and friends. You all have to come together to kind convinced and communicate with the folks are not vaccinated. So those who don't

get vaccinated and we're not getting to hurt immunity. Does that potentially create a possibility or scenario Dr Polly where the variant or the or the virus can continue to mutate and become even more potent because there are hosts out there that are available because not everybody's vaccinated, and because we don't have herd immunity, and that that could ultimately create a variant that the three vaccines that we have here in the United States will not be effective against.

And I think you had the nail that's exactly right. So the more number of people are unvaccinated, it's going to create a pre tridution environment for all these variants and especially delta variant. And I want to point out and not alarm your orience, there is another variant called delta plus variant, which is a seen uh in different countries. I think we have about ag cases in the US, which is additional mutation um and that that itself is not looking that good. So, yes, the virus can go

into directions. You get a lot of unvaccinated people, it's gonna it's going to continue to mutate, became become more stronger, more contagious, and men even if they immunity offered by these vaccines. So it's it's really on our it's really critical that we get as many people vaccinated as possible

right now. What message do you have or what do we know for people who are vaccinated but have kids under the age of twelve who can't get vaccinated and are are concerned about what's happening right now, because look, if the delta variant is indeed spreading as scientists say it is, then those unvaccinated populations that are not even eligible could get it right So so that that definitely is a concern. You're still waiting on some scientific data.

We're waiting on TB two guidelines for children are twelve and below right now, there are several studies that have angled these kids and vaccination programs we're waiting for the final results. Hopefully will get that soon and maybe we could even vaccinate children younger than two out pretty soon.

We're waiting on the guideline. Meanwhile, take all the precautions that you can, especially if you're visiting grandparents, as kids who are not vaccinated, they're trolling below in they're visiting grandparents. You know, their masks, you know, have the grandparents wear masks. Do some precautions for public health measures that were put in case only if those grandparents aren't vaccinated. Right, Yes, it's a grandparents, so not laccinated. You have to help

them bear amount. But if they're vaccinated, it should be fine. They should be fine. Um, you know, just be careful. There are also other groups, um, individuals, people are in suppross and medications. I think we need to protect this vulnerable population, right if you're more vulnerable. Hey, um, just to wrap up here, there are headlines out there about you know, France warning its citizens against vacationing in Spain and Portugal because of the spread of the delta variant.

You've got the US not yet ready to lift restrictions on international passengers that according to a US Transportation secretary, pet footage. Do you think it's right to continue these types of restrictions? And what's your advice to people who are like I am dying to get on a plane, dying to go to Venice. So so that I think the two most important things that I would recommend is supposed to get lascinated if you get on a plane, to protect to yourself and protect others from delta varian.

Second thing, get tested. You know, if you get tested and if you're positive, you should not be traveling. You should not go to Venice or France or any other countries and stay back and follow public health measures until you get better or you know, give give yourself the quarantine peer you're post. So getting tested, getting vaccinated are

going to be very critical during gustumber or travel. Would you also stay away just quickly twenty seconds, stay away from states within the United States where there aren't high vaccination rates just quickly you I mean, I would avoid, but you know, if you have to go, um, make sure you're vaccinated. All right, listen, we covered so much ground, Thank you so much. Stay safe. Dr Veno Polly, founder and CEO of my Doctor Urgent Care on the phone

in New York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. So not sure if you knew this. I did not think about this, Tim. This is why I love this story. When COVID nineteen struck, thousands of federal prisoners were released to home confinement, and now they're in limbo fearing that the government will soon order them to go back. So let's get to it. This story reported for Bloomberg Business Week,

Bloomberg News legal reporter David Yaffie Bellini. He's on the phone in Washington, d C. Along with Bloomberg Business. We get her to Joel Webber. He's right next to us in our Interactive broker studio in New York City. You know, I remember some headlines, Joe, but I kind of forgot about the prisoners who were let out, the prisoners who got to go home, and uh, as we've been reminded by David's reporting here, may not get to stay home forever, right, And part of that reason is how the cares that

fits into it. So David does drop us into reporting. What did you learn in the course of working on this story? In the spring and the early days of the pandemic. It included a provision that allowed the Bureau of Prisoners to least a home consignment a much wider swath as the prison population than would normally have been eligible. Um. So you know, the Bureau of Prisons has at least people the home confinement before, but usually only for the

last six months or so of their sentences. Under this program, you know, prisoners who had you know, as much as half of their sentence remaining could could go home. And so you know, thousands of prisoners were sent home as a as a result of that. They've sort of started rebuilding their lives, reintegrating into into society, you know, getting to know children who they haven't seen properly for years. Um. But that all could could come to an end once the once the pandemic is over and the Bureau of

Prisons authority to do this expires. So it all hinges on the government declaring the pandemic being over, which might be wishful thinking at the moment um. Just if if you hear about the delta variant and delta plus if you're listening to the program right, like, all of that stuff is a variable. But what happens once that switch gets flipped in the pandemic is quote unquote over. Yeah, so it's sort of a tragic irony that we've all

been waiting desperately for the pandemic to be over. But there are these prisoners, you know, who are actually dreading that that moment um, and what exactly will happen is

not totally clear. Um. In the kind of waning days of the Trump administration, the Justice Department issued a legal memo which basically outlined its interpretation of this provision of the Care Act of the CARES Act, and said, you know, once the pandemic is over, the b OP is going to lose this expanded authority to put put prisoners on home confinement. Now, you know, it seems unlikely that the

Biden administration will send the legal memo. Um. When you talk to two legal experts, they point out that, you know, this is actually a pretty solid bit of legal analysis that actually, if you look very closely at the way the CARES Act is written, it does seem to suggest that the Bureau of Prisons only has this authority for the duration of the emergency period of the pandemic. Um, so that memos will be not going away, despite the efforts of prisoner advocacy groups. But there are other things

the Biden administration could do. I mean it could, um, you could grant clemency to the thousands of prisoners who have kind of followed all the rules and been at home for the last year, um, which would allow them to avoid returning to prison. Or you know, Congress could pass new legislation making it clear that you know this, this authority that the b OP was given temporarily applies permanently, or at least applies permanently in the cases of these

prisoners who who were sent home. How exactly that will play out is not totally clear. That the Biden administration is keeping its cards pretty close to its chest. They'll say things like, oh, this is a question for when the pandemic is over, which for prisoners who are kind

of waiting in limbo is not a very satisfying answer. David, this is an incredibly powerful story, and I think the reason why is because it tells the story of numbers through individuals, and you include a handful of these thousands of prisoners who have been released. Their stories tell us about somebody like Brian Carr. Sure so, Brian Carr, I think you know fits the profile of a lot of people in this situation. UM. He was sent to prison

on on on drug charges a few years ago. UM. He's more than halfway through a sentence and UM was being held the prison camp in Fairton, New Jersey. UM, and he was sent home to Baltimore. He sort of started trying to rebuild his life. He's planning to enroll in a technical school. UM. Eventually he wants to start a company that would transport cars from dealerships across the country. He has young children, UM, who he has gotten to know better since he's been out of prison. He's UM

living with his family in Baltimore. He's followed all the rules, but now he's kind of in the state of limbo where he doesn't know what will happen. And I mean, he said something to me that was really powerful that he felt like never in his life until he got this chance at early release had he felt like he'd won anything UM, and then suddenly got this opportunity and now it feels like it's going to be taken away

from him. I feel like there's a lesson here for everyone who has read tons of research and articles on recidivism and people going back on what really keeps people out of prison. And I feel like, just such as the pandemic has been a real life experiment for us, David so too, is maybe these prisoners coming out and really finding a way to maybe write their lives. Yeah.

I mean, at the moment, we've got about hundred inmates who are on home confinement under this provision of the Cares act Um, and you know only you know, throughout the pandemic, only a hundred and twenty prisoners have been sent back for either committing a new crime or violating one of the rules from confinement. They are very strict rules. You have to wear an ankle monitor, you have to

check in with prison officials several times a day. You're obviously confined to your home for the most part um. So so, yeah, in many ways, it's been a kind of unlikely, you know, test case for a potential solution and mass incarceration, and it's worked really well. And I

think most people agree on that. And you know, when you talk to advocates, they're really frustrated that rather than talking about expanding this home confinement provision to make it permanent and giving more prisoners these opportunities they have to desperately fight to um, you know, ensure the freedom of people who have who have been out and have solved

all the rules over the last year. David, just just based on your reporting and other stories that you worked on, like the beer of Beer of prisons obviously a really interesting um place and when that gets grilled a lot, and just wondering like, what what other kind of changes

could you see coming coming from this time there? Um, I think I think that um that you know, not not only not only you know, as the Bureau of Prisons have seen that kind of kind of expanding the you know, sort of opening opening the possibilities of home confinement to people who are not as far along in their sentences. You know. Not not only have they seen that that that works, but they've also created like a

whole new set of criteria. I mean some were associated with health risks because of COVID, but other criteria about good behavior. So they sort of found kind of a new system for kind tracking the way you know, prisoners have have responded to their their punishment that you know is a is a potential you know, set of guidelines

for the future. That could allow the Bureau of Prisons to kind of determine, you know, which which prisoners might be eligible, who's most likely to benefit from home confinement and follow all the rules, and you know that that system is in place, and you know, could in theory be kind of expanded and applied to an even wider swath of the population than than we've already seen released to home confinement during COVID. And so that's a potentially

you know, promising set of circumstances for the future. Um but it's also all that discussion is kind of on bold for now. I just think about crisis that a crisis comes innovation, right, and disruption and ways of doing it better, and we know the prison system has certainly lacked in terms of figuring out a better way. Great stuff, as always, David Yaffie bell In a legal over putter of Bloomberg News, Joe Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week.

This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg. Raidy, We've got a few stories for our food crowd. One is about Beyond Meat offering up chicken tendees. There we go. I'm so glad you sid, I'm learning, I'm learning all dog new tricks and another one set way grasping for a lifeline. Let's get to it with Bloomberg News consumer reporter Dina Shankar. She is on the phone in New York City. Can we talk about Beyond Me and what they're up to?

Of course, alright, always happy we are to tell us what they're up to. So they are announcing today that they're rolling out a new chicken tender product at restaurants. It's hitting just under four hundred restaurants, which is a bit of a smaller rollout than we've gotten used to with Beyond Me. Um. These chicken tenders are honestly, they're more like a big nugget because they're a ground product instead of a whole muscle product, which is what we've

come to expect from you know what. Okay, hold on, take a hold on, let's pause the dying. Tell us more, well, we should know what they're made of. Fava beans, right, not hole muscles. That's okay, there are fava there. Uh, the main ingredient and uses fava beans like silence and the lambs fava beans. That's all I can think of such a great line from a movie first person to say, right, it's like a great line in that movie. Okay, anyway,

go ahead continue. Sorry, So that's fine. So fava beans are are change for beyond me that usually UH uses P protein as it's primary ingredient, and these also P protein. Actually it's in the breading for the tenders. Um. But they're made from a base of of fava beans. Um. And they are it's called a chop and mold, which is another way of just saying like a whoa, sorry, there's a thunderstorm happening. I'm sorry, beyond meat or or the fava bean bean police coming at your door or something. Yeah.

So it was. So it's a ground product, which is sort of more similar to like a burger essentially, um because of it's chopped up and molded into a shape as opposed to a whole muscle, which um is. You know, it's taste good. It's not what we well, So, have you ever had anything that was salty breaded and fried? Yeah, it's not going to be so um it taste you know, it tastes a good. Um. I had it. They made it for me. A chef made it for me in a restaurant, so like, you know, it's not something that

I made at home. Um, it was it was crunchy and and you know, oily and and it was like bar food. Um, didn't taste like chicken. Well, you know, being the reporter that I am, I had to sit there and peel the breading away and and try to you know, quote unquote me of it. And it was it was okay. It had like sort of like a slightly chalky texture but it but it was salty too, so it wasn't like all the flavor was in the breading. Um,

there was flavor in there too. Um. But you know that I tried their KFC chicken nugget right before the pandemic actually, uh January so and that was their second now get with KFC, and it was a hole muscle and it was really impressive because it had that um like fibrous kind of texture that you would get from a from a chicken breath. So that's what I was expecting,

um from this. But it wasn't that it was a It was a ground product, which the company incest is not a step back for them, though it is a lot more technologically difficult to make that whole muscle product. They said that this is a better way to reach the map, so they no longer offer that whole muscle product, right, Yeah, No, that was just a short term KFC. Very briefly, I don't want to get to the subway story, but very briefly, how important is this to beyond business because chicken is

the most popular protein in the US. Yeah, I mean it seems like it would be important because they have you know, they have the beef obviously in the sausage and um, chicken is a much bigger opportunity just in

terms of how much people eat of it. Um. It's also you know, it's tougher because there's a lot more competition in the plant based chicken market than there was in the plant based beef market when they entered, or plant based sausage and chicken also comes with it's a different it's a different mindset when somebody decides to stub in their chicken with a plant based option, because people often make that decision for health reason and chicken chicken

doesn't have that same unhealthy um vibe that a burger does. UM. And I have to say these tenders aren't really any healthier than a standard chicken tender, so that makes it a little bit of a tougher cell too. Yeah. Now that's one of the big discussions we often have around this table, U is just is it healthier? Um? Hey just quickly got about forty five seconds left here subway eat fresh refresh. What are they doing? They say they are upgrading their ingredients. They are slicing their deli ham

and their turkey sinner. They're offering new bread. Um. The sandwiches, I think, notably will not be getting any bigger, so you will still be getting about the same amount of me on those sandwiches. Um. You can finally order delivery through the app, which um, it's sort of hard to believe that you couldn't do until now through this whole pandemic. Um. And they are also offering ingredients like avocado and fresh mozzarella. So um, that's you know, something kind of perfect music.

It's like catch it up here is that way with the sign of the times? Uh? Dina, that was so much fun? Uh, thank you, thank you. Be careful in that storm. Dina Shankor Consumer Report Apple bring news on the fun from New York City. I'm hungry. Well, you can go get somebody's new sandwich. It's the Turkey Kelly Fresh sub. Avocado is avocado? Let me see avocado. I'm bro macro journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no home, honey, please, I'll do the right drivel exst me.

I want to dry it. Just drive, baby, it's the question trying. This is the drive to the clobe. Gimmu thanks, we'll drying us to down. On Bloomberg Radio. Just about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session. It is time for the drive to the close. Michael Rosen, CEO at Angelus Wealth Management, it's a multi asset investment firm, registered investment advisor. He's joining us on the phone in Santa Monica, California. Is its sunny there today, Michael, Oh,

you don't want to know. It's it's look as a Californian Carol, I can tell you in the afternoon sunny. You know in southern California it's always sunny. Well it's not. It's kind of dark here. As a matter of fact, I think it's pouring maybe out. It's pretty lousy. The markets, though, you know, I think we get a little bit of everything today. UH, some negativity certainly early on. We've bounced off that loads, but I'm watching and here we are with ten minutes to go, and it looks like we're

taking another leg down. What do you think is the psyche of most investors right now and what do you think explains the trade today? Well, let's remember that markets hit an all time high yesterday. So I think it's a little premature to, you know, call the beginning of a major bear market at this point. But I think if you look back a little bit longer, over the last couple of weeks or the last couple of months, the market has actually been really quite clear and sending

a very consistent signal about concerns around future growth. Were previous worries that inflation would be spiking out of control have really come come back. We're seeing bomb yields that have dropped forty basis points or so in the last couple of months. UH, and a rotation in the equity markets UH, where small cap stocks are now underperforming large cap valley stocks underperforming growth stocks. The dollar is a

little bit stronger. All a very consistent message of anticipating a little bit weaker economic growth, less inflation pressures, and we're seeing that rotation in the in the markets really across across asset classes. What is the one thing that changed? Were several things that changed after yesterday's closed, which was

a record, and what happened this morning. Yeah, I think it's it's really as I said, it's it's been a bit of a continuation of a recognition that the previous concerns of ever higher inflation we're just simply not warranted. Uh And the markets were we're mispricing higher inflation. There's an argument that markets are now maybe mispricing too low inflation going forward. Tender inflation assumptions are now about two and a quarter percent. Uh So it's really come down

quite quite substantially. But your concerns around again be the opening of economies around the world as the delta variant seems to be spreading, uh so, slower economic growth and maybe a recognition although we've we've sort of known this that be the rate of economic growth and the rate of inflation probably peak the last quarter and it's on both are kind of on their way the way down now.

So I think, you know, today is uh to me sort of just consistent message that we've we've had from the markets over the last couple of weeks and couple of months. Yeah, our Gina Marton Adams, who is so smart Bluemberg Intelligence, has followed the markets for a long time and she's talks about, you know, the market is priced to an existing reality as we know it now,

like we know where what's happening. We know are things are going to bounce off because our bounce up because everything fell off a cliff because of the pandemic, and so much of that is already priced in. The question now is what's next, What's going to be the real pace of recovery on the other side of this, what happens to inflation? Right, and what happens to FED policy? Yeah, that that's a that's a great question, and you know, the the really the question that we're we're all looking for.

I think the next couple of months we're still going to see a lot of noise in the data because we're still looking at a twelve month period going back to the midst of the economic shutdown that we had last year. So I think the data will continue to be a little bit noisy. We do know that in the inflation numbers that that much of the increase in inflation, and inflation was running at five percent eurover a year just a month ago. A lot of that pressure is

due to supply constraints, which really is pandemic related. So uh, semiconductor chips we we know h are are are in short supply, affecting auto prices. We know that a lot of the travel agencies, uh, the car rentals and airlines shut down a lot of their capacity. Uh. And now there's there's been a surgeon demand they haven't been able to meet that. So prices are we know that that will abate over over time. So a lot of the

pressures you are coming down. Look at lumber another good example. Uh. You know, lumber doubles in the first couple of months of this year and is down from its high back in early May. So uh, and again due to supply constraints in lumber mills was what drove the prices up, and now they're coming back down again. So a lot of this we know are due to temporary factors and

inflation coming back down. The longer term question for investors again, we won't really see this over the next couple of months. But as we look at over the next couple of years, is you know what will FED policy be with respect to any inflation pressures that we do see. The FED wants higher inflation my senses, they probably will will get it.

And so it's it's at the moment that there's a lot of noise in the in the data, a lot of that will will go away over the next couple of months and will first settle into a maybe a clearer pattern. Okay, so that's the that's your outlook, and I'm wondering how it manifests itself in portfolio recommendations that you have for your clients right now? How are you thinking about asset allocation, stocks and bonds. Yeah, it's a

great it's a great question. So, um, if you you'll think about the the winners in an environment of very sluggish economic growth and u and very low or no inflation, those are long duration assets, so growth equities, long term government bonds the big winners in that kind of environment, the environment that we saw for most of the previous decade, in an environment where growth perhaps could be a little

bit stronger, inflasion pressures a little bit higher. You want a short, shorter duration assets, so that means, you know, bring the duration down in fixed income, UH, favoring credit over over government bonds. UH and looking more at at value companies, value stocks relative to just long duration growth stocks. And in terms of fixed income, what would be your play here, Well, we're really over right high yield really and and and and all structured credit really to capture

that yield. We've had a view that the default cycle peak last year UH, and in fact has been coming down. Uh. There's been tremendous fiscal and monetary support has been very very accommodated, and I don't see an increasemento false cycle anytime soon, which means, uh, we can clip the higher yields. Even though they're at record lows. There's still much higher yields in credit and structured credit than that we can get in government bonds, which really to me make no

sense at all or for long term investors. Really yield that is, the yield after inflation are negative and government bobs and so guaranteed to lose purchasing power over time, they don't make any sense as a long term investment. All Right, we're gonna leave there Hey Michael. Good to get some time with you. Michael Rose and he's co founder in chief investment officer at Angelist Wealth Management, joining us on the phone from Santa Monica, California. Thanks for

listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News