U.S. Job Growth Quickens as Gain Outstrips Estimates

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg cloverl News. Well. Another story, of course, driving markets today has to do with the monthly jobs report for the month of October, which we got this morning at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. US job growth quickening as a gain of five and thirty one thousand outstrips estimates, the best numbers that we've seen in months.

A leading voice that we like to go to each and every month when we do get a job's report is Becky Frankowitz, the president of Manpower Group North America. Manpower Group is a workforce solutions company that sources, assesses, develops and manages talent across eighty countries from more than four hundred thousand clients. Becky, it's great to chat with you again. Your your reaction to this morning's number. Yeah, Hi, Tim, So the morning really represented the beginning, the beginning of

a reconciliation between American companies and American workers. You know, a stimulus ended, Tim, Employers now realized they need to move closer to what workers want to bring them back in and it truly is wages plus. So the plus is around flexibility, autonomy, you know, a focus on health and well being, and a sense of purpose. You know, but I do mean the beginning, because there are low

lights and highlights to this report, UM. You know, some of the highlights are as you mentioned, strong numbers, particularly in manufacturing. You know, the p m I has been over sixty now for several months, which is great to see hospitality leisure starting to bounce back, showing some signs of healing. Women. Women were a headline today. You know, the labor force grew by hundred and four thousand people entirely due to the increase in women and back into

the workforce, and of course wage growth. UM continues to be a headline UM and and obviously leading to a concern around inflation. And the low lights are really around participation. I mean, it's not where any of us would want it to be. Um, it's hovering around a fifty year low, and workers are are slowly trickling back. Yet there's more that needs to be done to bring people back into the workforce. But that's my summary. But does our idea

of participation have to change? Are not necessarily our metrics, but what labor force participation at a full level looks like? Does that have to change? Like FED chair Powell alluded to earlier this week that some people who left the labor force during the pandemic just aren't going to be going back to the labor force. Well, what we know, so I think it's a little early to tell that. What we know is that we have people retiring early, which I know you just you just spoke about, and

we have women that have left the workforce. So the real question around you know, the retirees, the early ones that retired on average two years early, is will we see the resurgence of boomerang retire Probably not in the next two or three or four months, tim, but six months, twelve months, people take some time off and decide, you know, they're still young enough to participate. And on women, we really need the sectors where women are overrepresented to come

back a little stronger, you know, encouraging on hospitality. You know, you saw education did not move in the right direction this morning through government hiring. Um so lots of work to do there. So I would say it's a little early to talk about redefining participation because what we know is we have a lot more jobs than we have people, and people are what fuel are economic growth. Well, okay, I want to talk more about women because if we look at the prime age women participation rate, it did

pick up last month, but only slightly. And I mean, like you said, we have to see those sectors where women are overrepresented come back more strongly. But I mean if you look at you know, leisure and hospitality, that sector did see a big pick up last month. So so what's still holding back women from really re entering the workforce. Yes, I think it's a couple of things.

You know, first you have to understand why women left, and women left in part because the sectors that they were overrepresented in were hit the hardest, hospitality and leisure, education, childcare, etcetera. So that's one they also left because we still I say we because obviously I'm a woman, we still bear um and and assume most of the housework, childcare, elder care in our homes. And many opted out and said now I'm a you know, I'm a full time worker

and a full time teacher. Something has to give and opted out to stay home to help support the family. And so I thinks as these sectors come back, and you mentioned hospitality and leisure, definitely encouraging numbers, but still a on a very very low base. Um. But the real tell is going to be can we invite women back with the flexibility that they've now enjoyed as they've opted into, you know, playing a different role in their in their homes and families, and and that that really

leads to the need for employers to redefine flexibility. It's not all about remote working, um, but we have to to find flexibility to attract women back into the workforce. Also, want to get your thoughts on the month months ahead, because we are entering, you know, the holiday season when you see a lot of businesses higher temporary workers just for that season. And I mean there's been a lot of consternation about what it's going to look like for

retailers because we have all these supply chain issues. I'm curious what it's going to look like for those companies that are trying to hire seasonal workers. Yeah, so you use the word temporary, hiring temporary workers, you know, I would say, what is a temporary worker? These days? With the quit right, you know, reaching record highs ever reported, I guess in a lot of cases, a lot of folks are temporary, depending on how you define it. But

it is something we're watching closely. And what we've seen our clients do is over higher early and so we started seeing, you know, job postings for three hundred thousand people for a client versus the traditional one hundred and fifty thousand they would go to higher and so we've seen really the combination instead of thing I'm hiring for seasonal workers, clients are saying I'm hiring and not putting

an end date on that. And so you know, the real question is if you wanted to opt into the flexibility and some additional income from a worker view, you have more opportunities than ever before to opt into that kind of workforce. And you know, I think the smart companies are saying, hey, we just want to hire you. You can opt in and out for the number of hours and the length of assignment that you want to have.

And so, you know, the trick is that we're going to have enough workers to support the growth we need over you know, over the holidays. And you've seen all the headlines around concerns not just for supply chain, but for for productivity. Yeah. Look what Amazon just announced last week that they might not even have a profitable quarter as a result of the incentives that they'll have to

pay people to come in during the fourth quarter. Hey, Becky, give us an idea of what you see in the data from the companies that you work with at Manpower and what we saw on the jobs report today when it comes specifically to wage growth. Yeah, so we're definitely seeing wage inflation. Um, you know, wages are table stakes now, tim And it's so ironic if you go back twenty

four months. You know, right before the crisis, we were all saying wages should be increasing based on the economic principles of supply and demand, and they didn't, and and they are now as you saw, we're up to four point nine on a on an average twelve months basis for wage increase. So we're definitely seeing wage increases. There's never been a more effective strategy in moving the fifteen dollar wage than in any of the movements we've seen

outside of this crisis. And so we've been encouraged by that. UM. You know, we keep a close eye on on the other costs that are going up around our workers because if wages, you know, don't keep up with the inflationary cost of goods, then we also have an imbalance, and so that's important. But we're definitely seeing wage growth. And you know, another another hot sector I'll tell you going forward because you said, you know, looking out what we

see UM. The headline of story, it's all around i T. So i T demand for jobs and that knowledge worker space of of i T is up thirty one year on year, and and remember we've talked about this in several reports. It continues to be on a high base, not a low base. It's not the story of hospitality. I T is the story of you know, step change year over year, month over month growth and last month in America, software developers overtook nurses as the number one

most in demand role in our country. So nurses have moved to number two software developers and number one. So I t you know, talent is definitely the driver's seat in our country. Wow, I gotta think there's there's some signal to take about, you know, the fact that we are maybe getting out of this pandemic, the fact that nurses happened overtaken. But I do want to take us

back to that labor force participation rate. Still scratching my head about it, the fact that again it really hasn't moved for months from sixty one point six per cent, Becky, how does that start to get higher? What's going to push it there? Well, again, at the end of stimulus, I think American employers, you know, we're holding their breath for you know, what I called the September sunrise on a prior program, you know, hoping that when stimulus ended,

workers would come back in the workforce. Now, what of course we know, is that's not happening in the rate that anyone expected it too. And so if you step back and say what's going on in the households of of America, it truly is you know, a complex challenge. It's safety and I know you just had the visor CEOs speaking about vaccination rates, So it is safety. Cannot go into work and be safe. It is increasing responsibilities at home, which is primarily hardest hitting for women, but

impacting families. And it's also America's are saving and so they're having the opportunity to you know, change their lifestyle, move to new cities and often too different ways of working. And so I think our our hope should be rooted around seasonal labor that you mentioned earlier, you know, coming back on maybe a part time basis to invite people back into the workforce and say, you know, come on in, it's it's actually okay. Becky Francowitz, President at Manpower Group

North America, joining us on the phone from Chicago. Becky, thank you so much for taking the time. Really appreciate it. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Well shebil new coin craze is driving demand for a less than ideal dog breed. Claire Valentine is a reporter for Bloomberg News. She's covers markets and et f s, but I think it's fair we can call her the dogdog reporter for

this story. She joins us on the phone from New York City. Claire, First of all, I have to ask you, was it trips to the dog park with your one year old dog Riley that got your attention for this story? It actually was. It was a combination of that and then also seeing this she thedio coin just skyrocket recently, and just with both of those sort of observations happening, you know, it just seemed like it was right for investigation. And sure enough, when I talked with some breeders across

the country, they confirmed that people want the news now. Okay, So what did the breeders tell you about the way that people are getting in touch with them so much more than in just a few months ago. Well, it's so funny because some of these breeders that I called, there's act she Beat You New Association of America. They're all these national organizations, and these these are all like

hobby breeders. They you know, they're she beat You knows have litters of three puppies at a time, and all of a sudden people are finding them and are calling them and on their waning list and and just lining up to get these dogs. Can we talk about Sida you news, because they're actually really cool. They're Japanese hunting dogs. I have been really into them for a while and I feel like does before before doughs. They're really cool, always painfully. But you say in the headline they're less

than ideal dogs. Let's walk through that a little bit. Yeah, So from talking with with the actual breeders and my own personal experience, UM, I think the dogs they're they're very cute and they're very athletic. Um they're sort of aloof though is with the word that was used and a bit catholic. Yeah, well you're speaking Katie's language. Okay,

this is the dog for you. I know. I feel like Katrick and a shiba, they would they would find if anyone, Yeah, if anyone hasn't seen Katie's dog, just follow her on her cat excuse me, kat Rick, um, just follow her on social media. I want to bring in Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So Joel, we talked about uh Claire at the dog park with Riley

and that being the genesis of this story. So when she and the team brought it to you, did you just say, yes, absolutely, this is exactly what we want to say. Because I love this story. I will fact check that story and just say that it happened a little differently. Oh okay, although I think Claire was the

most perfect writer imaginable for it. But um, we we look like the new thing like it's just been um, you know, you can't look away from it, right, And it started with the doe interesting and then Ellen got his and and that mayde just kind of go, you know, is it just the craze kind of continued. I was like, it's got to be crossing over, right, And so that made me call Claire and I was like, hey, could you make some phone calls? And she was like, you know,

this is my dream the side. So so thank you, Claire. But you know, Claire, UM, I know, I know I put the less than ideal dog breed um in the headline, but obviously that's in the beholder. Um, what are some positive traits about this dog? The positive choice, I think is that it's it's very athletic. I mean, it can you know, they're they were bred as hunting dogs, so you know, in terms of running and just you know, tearing it up with with other dogs like it can

be really fun. Um also see it's very conducive to memes. Yes, yes, definitely. And I think it's you know, it's it's all about how you raise a dog and the training and that kind of thing. So they're not always bad dogs, but they do have some tendencies that could be you know, as we say, less than ideal. So Claire, you're writing your story that it's not the first time that pop culture has driven the purchases of pets, and it makes me think back to the nineties with Walt Disney's live

action version of A hundred and one Dalmatians. Real puppies were given as Christmas gifts, you write, a spike and pupps at animal shelters after families realized though that dogs of this breed tend to bite and don't often like children. I'm wondering when we'll know if this is a lasting trend or if we'll see some sort of similar activity when it comes to uh the excitement around Shiba. Well, it could be you know, uh, many years away. I will say, you know, going off of the president for that.

You know, my my dog Riley, who's a cocker Spaniel. He's actually the second or the third cocker spaniel I've owned in my life. When I was young and I watched Lady in the Tramp um my my parents got me. We had two cocker spaniels. So look at that. Yeah, it's a personal experience there and with you know, dogs, lifespands. You know this, this could be with us for quite

a while. Next time we bring that into this story, Claire, Like you know, the cocker spaniel, there was like a whole other chapter to this story that I didn't know. I was hoping you were going to say we were going to bring a shiba into the studio. I mean, it could be arranged. Maybe I would like to say, yeah, I you know. Now. The other thing I will say here though, is that, um, you know, as long as we're on Mimi Dogs, do you know about the Benghazi

ben JAZZI? Is that? That's it? Claire? Right, that's my that's my up and comer for for what I think is going to be the next meme dog is it? What is it? Curly tail hypoallergenic? Yeah, I don't think it has a coin yet, but you know, maybe able to start win this weekend. And well, you know, does it have cats? I mean, are you in the market? Is that know what you're saying. I live in a two bedroom with a cat, so and a husband. I'm not alone. So meanwhile, you know, we've got these coins

that are kind of going crazy. Claire, Um, what's um? What's getting out to you in the on the coin world? And you know the other thing that was interesting here was that there are people who uh, you know, predated the meme moment right in terms of the Yeah, definitely. There are some people who you know who had Seba unity before dodge coin was was created. And for them it's you know, it's it's pretty weird all of a sudden,

your your dog everywhere. Um. And one woman that I talked to, how does she the un and then later found out about the uniw coin and thought, oh, that's perfect for me. I'm going to invest in it. So it's sort of you know, each feed off the other. Um. But yeah, the Sheba new coin especially has just had so much um, grassroots support on social media for it. People are very into it. All. I gotta tell you I'm you know, you're the editor. I'm missing a picture

of Riley the cocker Spaniel in this piece. You know, I guess, I guess. There are many things that we could have added to this story, including you know, my own story with but you know, you know, it doesn't all doesn't make the final car exactly. And again, this is like a really fun story and like one of those ones that it was just like, oh, there's you know,

the real market. You know, well, what's happening in crypto, but there's actually a real real market, which is the crossover story of what's happening in with with this pretty a perfect story for Friday afternoon. You can read Claire's story. It's featured in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joe Weber is editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

joining us in the Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Claire Ballentine markets and ets reporter for Bloomberg new She joined us on the phone from New York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. It's Bloomberg Business Week. Tim Stinofeck and Katie Greifeld live in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio

in New York. SHARE's a Viser. I are by eight point seven percent right now after the company is saying that it's COVID nineteen pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths in high risk patients by eight At the same time, we are seeing shares of MODERNA down about as a result of That's the big question is does this marking new stage in the fight against the pandemic. Well, let's ask a voice that we go to each and every week. Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical professor of Medicine at n

y U Lane Owns Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from New York City. Dr LUs Bader, what were your thoughts when you saw this news from Viser early this morning, Happy Friday, Tim and Katie. I think very good news. You know, certainly it's another addition to the armamentarium. You know, we are seeing cases dropping. I do think over the next several months, uh kind of de factor we're going to be seeing, you know, an end of the pandemic. Maybe endemic, but the end of

a pandemic in the US obviously not globally. But the FISER pill is a protease inhibitor, and we use protease inhibitors to treat HIV, usually in combination as well. Hepatitis C also in a combination pill. And in this particular study, it showed that the FISER pill combined with one of the HIV pills that we use, ritonity Are, which is a protease inhibitor. All of these act in different ways to decrease viral replication. You know, it's very significant. They

did the study in twelve patients. There are some other medications out there that are also encharging, some over the counter and not over the counter, some meta generic, I should say. The Wall Street Journal also reported a few weeks ago of a Lancet study with fluvoxamine, which is an S s R I that also is encouraging. Not quite as many patients in that study there were at

six patients. Here, it's about twelve patients. So I think we're moving in the right direction with increased vaccinations, some new anti viral so I think there's hope on the front. And so it's interesting I mean, obviously you're seeing visor stocks searge today, but like Tim mentioned, you're seeing Maderna shares down at the moment. And some of the logic there that's been offered is that there's a pill available, people are less likely to get the vaccine in shot form.

H does that logic cold water with you? Well, Maderna has a very deep field, you know, the the messenger RNA vaccines are going to be used for many things. Cancer virus is a huge number of things. So Maderna, in my opinion as his visor, is a great company. So I wouldn't get too excited one way or another. Um, the reality is percent of people over sixty five have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Fully vaccinated is of people sixty five and older, and for twelve

and older fully vaccinated, it's about six. So between natural immunity from the forty six million cases of COVID in the US plus vaccines. UM, I'm not sure how many people in the US are going to need those anti viral pills, but it doesn't matter. There's going to be a new pandemic. There's going to be a new virus. I mean, all of this will be helpful. How much we're really going to be using these anti viral pills in the next month. Uh, I don't think it's going

to be great, but it is useful to have. Certainly, the rest of the world is going to be struggling with COVID and these may be useful against other viruses or other viruses that we deal with now epstein bar appatitis C. You know, we have to explore where else it will be used. So even if it's not going to be treating a lot of people in the US,

there's potential worldwide. That is a really good coin. Dr Spader and I do wonder how we get to a level where the pandemic becomes endemic in the United States while still a pandemic outside of the United States, and other variants could pop up exactly good point tim as as usually you're on the case. We don't know. Uh. Certainly, I think we'll have some protection in the US, both unfortunately from infection and natural immunity as well as the vaccinations.

But there is theoretically, Look, we're seeing breakthrough. You know, we're giving alpha shops for a delta virus, and there could be another mutation as long as billions of people have yet to be infected. There is that potential for a new strain coming up. You know, we'll have to see what happens. Hopefully that won't be the case, and hopefully we will have some protection both from the vaccine

and or natural immunity, but we don't really know. And so former FDI Commissioner Scott Gottlie told c NBC this morning that you know, with these new treatments, you could see the pandemic end in the US by January. Curious to hear your perspective on that, whether that's a realistic timeline and also what does the pandemic ending actually look like. And we should know he is on the board of FISER.

That's important. Yeah, right right, No, no invested interests there. Um, you know, I think just statistically we're seeing more vaccinations, unfortunately some more infections, and I think we will be one way or another headed towards um kind of de facto close to her community, somewhere in the January February range.

So I agree with him. I think in the next few months, I don't think we can pinpointed January exactly, but somewhere in that range January February probably the latest in March, the number of cases will be dropping really to a very low level um, And you're right, there may be a few spoty cases here and there, but I think de facto, uh, it will be much much lower.

And you know, the question is do we change things, do we get rid of you know, masks, And we'll have to figure out how much of this we carry over. But I think from a psychologic point of view, people will certainly be feeling more positive, you know, which is important. Seconds lafter thirty seconds, I should say, Dr LUs Bader, what do you think for timing for kids under the age of five being able to get the vaccine? When

does that happen? Does it happen, especially as here in New York and other parts of the country we did this week, start to see kids ages five to eleven get the shot. Yeah, no, I think that's happening soon. Parents have to be involved in decide, you know, the pros and cons. That's not a very high risk group in terms of death and disability, but they certainly can transmit it. Um. It could be a standard in the future. I don't think we know yet. At this point. It

really is an option UM, but certainly not mandatory. I think we may need to wait a little more time to just see how it works out in that group, but certainly it's available if parents want to do it all right. Dr In the lust Bider, clinical professor of medicine joins us each and every Friday. He's from n y U Langones Medical Center, joining us on the phone from New York City. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messier and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

Bloomberg Radio. Well, the Bloomberg Financial Innovation Summit wrapped up, but earlier today I spoke with Zach Prince, the founder and CEO at Block five. In this excerpt, Zach talks all about the firms bitcoin rewards credit card check it out. The people that are using the card are a mix of cryptocurrency enthusiasts who are always looking for more ways

to earn bitcoin um and and keep growing. There you know, stack of of cryptocurrencies, but we've also seen a really interesting cohort of folks that that we refer to internally as crypto curious people. UM. These tend for us to be high earners working in the financial or technology industry. UH. They're kind of in a U shaped geographically in the US and in major cities on the coasts of California or the East coast or Texas or Florida. UM, they skew younger and UH, and they spend a lot on

credit cards. So you know, the average spin that we're seeing on Block five cards right now is around five thousand dollars a month. Compare that to you know, am X or Visa premium cards that are more in the two to two range per month. So we've got a young, smart, wealthy, UH,

you know, really excited consumer base. And and one of the things we're gonna be rolling out next year that I'm really excited about is UH is merchant offers where retailers, UM and other types of firms that want to advertise and promote their products to this incredibly high value UH segment of customers that use the Block five card. They'll be able to do that through offering UH incentives UM where you know, right now the base rate is one

and a half percent Bitcoin back on every transaction. In your first ninety days, you're in three and a half percent. But we'll have some really citing stuff coming out early next year, where at select merchants or you know, for select products will get even higher raised than that. Here's the thing, though you live in New York. I live in New York. We can't actually get this card right now.

It's not available in New York. Yeah. So, so the credit card is available in in forty nine out of the fifty states in the US, New York is the only one where it's not currently available. What are the conversations you're having with regulators to make it available to New Yorkers. I imagine it's a that's an audience, that's a customer base you want to have. Yeah. Absolutely. UM, I can't comment too much on, uh, the the ongoing dialogue that that we're having it blocked five with a

number of regulators, uh, you know in New York. Uh included in that. Um. But but I think we're optimistic that the card and other products on our platform will be available in New York sometime next year. Okay, so the first half, second half? What do you think either one? I'm really interested in what you said about the crypto curious who come to Block five through the rewards credit card.

Are you seeing the credit card is kind of like a you know, for lack of a better term, a gateway drug to get people into the Block five platform and get people into cryptocurrency who aren't familiar with it or don't use other platforms. Yeah. Absolutely, I mean, we we think of our kind of position in the market when compared to uh, most of the other large cryptocurrency companies,

which are exchanges. We think of ourselves as a bit more of a wealth management type of platform, where we want to be offering a suite of products to folks that are easy to use, that are really valuable for them to use. UM and each product can be the hook and in the first kind of acquisition of a customer in and of itself. The credit card is just

the newest um iteration of that. But but yes, absolutely, the behavior that we typically see UM is someone will start with the credit card or start with our interest account product, and then over time they'll also be trading or potentially taking out a loan. UH. And we really want to build that high level of engagement with our clients and we hope that uh, you know, they'll see a lot of value out of multiple products that we already have and products that we're launching in the future.

Be in conversations that I had with you and your team ahead of of this conversation today, I learned that about five of your revenue comes from the credit card right now. How do you want that to grow? I think, um, you know payments as a category. So the credit card is our is our first product in the payments category. We expect that to be ten to fifteen percent of revenue by the end of next year and close tot of our overall revenue by the end of next year.

By the end of next year, will likely also have a debit card available UM and more payment options, especially outside the US. Uh. You know, today, for our US clients they can send money to and from their bank account and their block Fire account. But for our clients outside the US, which is about thirty percent of our client base, they're still reliant on cryptocurrent see payment rails only.

So they can send us Bitcoin, ethery um, stable coins, but but they can't send us money from their traditional bank account yet. And so payments is a big growth area for us, both in terms of products and features. Well. That was Zach Prance, the founder and CEO at Block five, from the Bloomberg Financial Innovation Summit. You can check out that entire interview by going to Bloomberg Live dot com.

We talked a lot about regulation as well, Katie, because the company has been in the crosshairs of regulators not for its credit card product, although New York State it has been, but for its interest sparing crypto account. Yeah, and obviously that is a hot topic with regulators. I mean, it's not just Block five under scrutiny right now. You have coined based to uh, you know, really coming into

the focus of regulators. Glad you spent a lot of time there because I mean, every that's what everyone wants to know in the crypto community and the crypto curious what's going to happen. It seems like the US has really stepped up there. Uh, just focus on the industry as a whole. Well, it has been remarkable to hear how Block five has been able to capture the zeke some capture the moment, especially over the last couple of years. The companies on track this year for four hundred and

seventy five million dollars in gross revenue. The average spent on their credit card five thousand dollars a month. Prince told me that people pay off those credit cards. They don't carry a balance. Not profitably yet though, right, not profitably yet, getting there, getting there, all right. Yeah, it's worth between three and four billion dollars. That's the last funding rounds a company who started like lesson five years ago. I mean, crypto companies, they're so hot right now they are.

We're gonna have more crypto later in the show with Michael Son and Hin at Gray Scale. In the meantime, you're listening to Bloomberg Radio, and this is Bloomberg Business Week. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a toy, all right, please, I'll I don't want to drive. Good question. This is the drive to the Clothes on the Bloomberg Radio. It's just ten and a half minutes away from the close of the equity markets on this Friday, November five. Tim Stunofeck and

Kati Gratzeld live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. Very pleased now to be joined by a familiar voice to our audience. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, joining us once again on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina, Ryan, how are you, Tim? We're making new highs once again. I guess you'd say I'm gonna pretty good mood. I mean, this is tim the seventh new all time high in a row, assuming we closed there, which is looking like

we will. This is the second time this year we've had a seven day all time high wind streak. I just was looking these years might sound familiar to the bowls. Sixty four, sixty five, and ninety seven are the only other years in history that have seen two separate seven day wind streaks. That all we're at all time highs. This is just truly wait, let me make okay, So if we finished higher today, right, we will see the two seven day win streaks, which has only happened eight

other times since nineteen fifty. Well, seven day win streaks are all closed it all time highs, seven day win streak in a row of new highs, and it happened earlier this year, so this is the second time we've done that. So it's just, you know, there's so many ways we can break it down, right, but that just it's just fascinating when you when you um, you see it like that. Also, this will be the sixteenth win winning day the past eighteen you gotta go back to May.

The last time we saw that in nineteen seventy one before that. So just a lot of ways of saying this is. You know, I was one of the guys a month ago and said, you know, everybody thought about remember the rich dad poor dad guy was given all the warnings by October. We said, we just don't see it. You know, there's a lot of strength there. Maybe Arnie someone better and expected there's a better mean, we thought,

But my o, my it, we are getting stretched. But it's been a great run clearly the last you know, several weeks here, well, Ryan's been a great run. I mean, those are some amazing size and scopes that you just laid out for us. I can see Tim writing them down. But where do we go from here? Because you know you mentioned October sees only it wasn't supposed to be as good as it was. November tends to be pretty good for the stock market. But if seasonals didn't hold

in October, why should they in November? Yeah, Katian, interesting about October. Um, when you live an odd number year like we had, October is actually really good. What happens in an odd number year, Well nothing really because even number years you have on elections, we were saying maybe pre election Juter, so little strength in October made sense. But you're right up six percent, like almost seven percent. That's a little stretch, but it is what it is.

November is the strongest month of the year, and when you're up twenty percent for the year heading into the usually strong November, it's actually never been lower going back to World War Two, higher eight out of eight times. So let's put a bow on this. I mean, we are stretched extremely, but what's neat about it? Those are large caps, I mean small caps. Know everyone's bullish small caps now, but you know, small caps with nowhere for

nine months and just broke out this week. There's a lot of other areas that have truly mid caps just broke out last week. So there's some areas that are saying, hey, we're gonna take a ton for a while. Maybe small caps take a well I'm sorry, large caps take a well deserved break, but some of these other areas are gonna keep it going. And that's the lifeblood of a major secular bowl market, which we believe we're in. Different groups get to take their turn and we think small

caps can take the turn for a while. So the question, Ryan is what does this I'll tell you about where we're going to go for the rest of the year. Yeah, I mean the rest of the year still still looks strong. I mean again, we were extremely overstretched, yes, but again, you know, we might have a little correction, little pullback, but again you know, November December usually strong. There's still the tail winds of the FED and then the fiscal policy,

and and it just still looks good. And let's be honest. Okay, what's about the market. Let's about the tommy for a second. Historically, when you have new highs and transports and small caps and financials, and the financial financials are flat today, yet the tenure yields down significantly, I think that's a good thing. I think that's encouraging. I mean, these are cyclical things that are leading us, and that's the market's way of

leading the economy. In our views, the six to nine months from now, we should have probably a lot stronger economy. And people think we all saw that two percent GDP print in the third quarter. That was bad, but that was also backward looking. Stock market stan economies, better footing than most people think here next six to nine months. Okay, I'm glad you brought up the bond market because it's

quite a move that we're seeing. I mean, the tenure yield down eight basis points today, that's following pretty much an eight basis point decline yesterday as well. What's going on. I mean, I'm somewhat surprised to see this on a week where the FED officially announced that yes, we are tapering. Oh, you're right, and it's not just the US. And I'm just looking at all the different tenure yields around the globe and they're all they're all tanking, um, you know,

And I think it's it's a unique situation. I think it does have something to do with the central bank policy. Um, you know, in the in the past we've seen some US store squirrely, some squirrely moves after central bank decisions, Fed interest rate decisions. But it is some somewhat perplexing with the drop in the yields were talking about, which is yield curves in general, and it could just be um, you know, the market is sniffing out. Okay, well, tapering

is here. We don't need to readjust to what that might mean, but to us, we're still focusing more on those earnings, which we understand a little bit more. Those earnings were spectacular, as we all you guys have talked to guests, talked about it. You know, over eight percent of companies be came in way above expectations. Again, start of the year, people thought spin of earnings to be one sixty five. It's looking like it's gonna be like two oh five maybe a little more. That's like twenty

five percent higher. SMPS up about twenty for the year. So kind of interesting how that works. Hey, I'm wondering Ryan about and you and Katie were talking about this a little bit, but what we learned from the jobs report today. I know earnings is what you see driving it, But do you get a better idea for the way that the economy is recovering based on the numbers and the revision? Yeah, I mean that the revision was nice.

We all kind of assumed that after a last month of that really low number, we assumed to be revised higher. But I think it just makes sense in the whole idea that finally open it up, you know, a little bit, more people are getting back to work and then things are fairly strong and with some of the benefits that officially ended over a month ago, approximately, people are getting back in and then we anticial we fully anticipate the next two months or so we should see some really

big numbers. Again, maybe we don't quit it a million in a month, but you know, up over five hundred thousand the next couple of months makes a lot of sense to us. And we're still I think it's what about four and a half million jobs away still from where were pre pandemic. So you know, there's still that's there's still some still still some hiring that is needed to even get back free prandemic. This is something we've been talking about all day. Do you think those jobs

ever come back? We do, eventually, I do, But you know what the last recession, you know how long it took seven years after the financial crisis recession for those jobs to come back. There's one thing we've been saying at the LFL Research to our more than our nearly twenty thousand advisers. Don't expect these jobs to come back right away. The stock market comes back, earnings come back, GDP comes back, but jobs historically do take a while

to come back, and they will eventually. It took seven years last time, and I might not take that long this time, but several years could just be the playbook. And right, it's interesting to see bringing it back to the bond market. I lived there. Uh, interesting to see. So clickles break Apart from yields today, I mean, obviously the Fiser pill news really boosting some of those cyclical sectors and the Russell two thousand, But how long can

that dynamic last? Does do yields have to rise? Or you know, is this cyclical boost that we're seeing today going to fade? No, we would say the cyclical boost is not going to fade. I mean you mentioned, you know, just the economy in general, we think is getting stronger. That helps cyclicals, the Fiser news subcyclicals. I see small caps once again up over two percent. Feel like almost every day this week they've been up over two percent. I know they haven't been, but it feels like that.

And let's not forget taxes. Right a year ago, right now, after the election, most of us would have assumed we'd have significantly higher taxes this time a year ago or a year later, and here we are, we know more spendings coming. But you know, likely we're gonna have much lower taxes than we expected. And who does that benefit more than anybody? The small caps. Small caps do not like higher taxes. And now taxes are, you know, lower than what the market anticipated just this time two months ago.

Let's be honest, and that's another tale. And for those cyclical areas, specifically small caps. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, He joins us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, always great to chat with you. Thank you so much for taking the time. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. And you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

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