U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Since March 2020

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Clovel News Well. A group of top vaccine experts meeting today also tomorrow to consider whether people who get the COVID nteaen vaccines made my BRAJOURNA and J and J should receive booster shots. This is continuing to kind of figure out who needs what, right,

who needs what and web rank. The US FDA is going to send Merc's COVID nineteen pill to an advisory committee for review, using a public form to discuss any safety concerns ahead of a potential authorization. Remember this is treatment, so it really could change the game for people who are infected with COVID. All right, So that's some of the broader, bigger stories. When it comes to COVID nineteen. Dr Penny wheel Or is someone we have reached out

to throughout the pandemic. She's present CEO at the Line of Health. They have UM a lot of hospitals, I think over ten. I think it's about a dozen in the Minnesota area, UM and so they have really a front row seat to what's been going in the Midwest when it comes to COVID. She's back with us on the phone from Minnesota. Dr Wheeler, it is so nice to have you back with us um this. You know, COVID. I think we all had hoped by now that we've

been beyond it, UM, but we're not. What's going on in the Midwest, well sure, we sure wish we were beyond it here. You know. Unfortunately the country as a whole is going down from the delta variant, but we are still UM peaking here. So it seemed like the whole variant and it's infectivity moved north. So we're seeing cases here that are exceeding even our our second highest peak right now, and the situation has changed because the

staffing is so vallenge challenging everywhere. So it's it's tough going right now. In the words of one doctor that I've heard of it just to show you the strain, he said, I don't know whether to drive for my shift in the e D or to drive into the reservoir. It's that it's that taxing for our caregivers who are

just doing amazing work. Can you give us any numbers about what you're seeing in the thirteen hospitals and more than ninety clinics with with who's being affected right now, who's hospitalized right now, in the portion of those who are or not who are not vaccinated? Yeah? Sure, can we we uh at a line to take care about percent of the people who are hospitalized with COVID in our states were pretty good litmus tests. The vast majority

of the people requiring hospitalization are unvaccinated. Eight percent of the people in our i c U s right now. Um, you know, intensive care units are unvaccinated, and that's where we're seeing the the primary really se your illness and sadly, sadly, way too many deaths occurring. So that's still that's still the case. Um, so and and again the numbers are

in this geography still rising rather than falling. What's the risk planning or contingency planning that you guys are doing in anticipation of another way potentially or a variant that trips us up again? Yeah, well certainly, you know, a lot of it has to do with cash. How can we have adequate staffing available? So a lot of our our leaders are taking frontline positions and trying to bolster the staffing. We're trying to eliminate things that are unnecessary

so that we can accommodate the surge we're having. UM. We have a centralized access center so it can level load. UM, you know, where people can go of one hospitals fold and another hospital take it. And we do that actually with the whole state of Minnesota and the other health systems in the state UM as well. So we're trying to do some of those things to accommodate the needs. COVID is a big nied but we're also seeing delayed care needs of significance all at a time when staffing

is really challenge. Dr Wheeler help set expectations for what things look like, Caroline, I are flying today tonight. It's the first time I've gone on a long flight. Your first time flying, Caroline, what eighteen months? Yeah, exactly. We're gonna be wearing masks throughout the flight at the airport. Is this something we're gonna be doing for the rest of our lives. Yeah, that's a good question. I wish

I could predict it. What what has happened is we can only kind of see almost two to three weeks ahead of us. And beyond that, I mean, I wouldn't have predicted this, you know, Um, beyond that, it's really hard to predict. I'm I'm. I think that some of the rise in the cases are because of school openings, and I think that the more vaccinations we can get

into the pediatric population that will help as well. Um. I think we're also realizing that some of what Japan did traditionally we probably should do more of in terms of masking when we're when we're not well, So some of that be savior probably should stay with us to keep people safe. It's hard to predict long term. Yeah, I've definitely gotten much more comfortable we're wearing a mask. I feel like I almost miss it sometimes when I'm out and about walking and it's not there. Um, I

just want to ask you, you guys are transitioning. Uh, you're gonna have a new CEO and you're gonna move off to I believe the board. Tell us a little bit about that transition. Yeah, well, you know, I it's these people are so amazing. It's going to be these people with what they've accomplished for the CUIs that I will miss them most. But I am so grateful for the organization. I love to transition it to our chief operating officer and President Lisa Shannon, who's just really solid,

so real smooth transition. Our our employees don't need any more disruption than they already have, and that to stay on the board and have that continuity is really important for us in the communities we serve. Well, it sounds like you've been a great leader. I know you guys have been had so much stuff to deal with, uh, certainly in this and we're not out of it out of the wood yet, and we have really leaned on you in terms of getting your ps sspective. So thank

you so much, and uh you take care. Dr Penny Wheeler, President and Chief executive Officer at A Line of Health on the phone from Minnesota. I do think this is just a way of life. It is to some extent. Yeah, I think it is too. I mean there's the before times in the aftertimes, right. We kind of joke about it, but it really is. It's going to be the way that we live with it, and I think that we're

getting more and more used to it. I think that kids part of it is is different because there are no vaccines yet for many kids, but hopefully getting closer to it. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The US initial Joba's claims, we've been talking about it dropping to the low since March of time. Prices paid to US producers rose in September. We also heard about that

from Charlie at the slowest pace of the year. And what we're seeing, Tim, is cooling costs of services, including air fairs as the delta variant impacted demand. So that's pretty significant. It is pretty significant to join us to help us dig through these numbers and all this data is read Picker, US economy reporter at Bloomberg New She joins US on the phone from Washington, read it is always great to have you on the show. Thanks for

joining us today. Where do you want to start? Do you want to start with initial jobless claims or do you want to start with p P I What do you think is more important? UM? So they're both important, but let's start with claims. UM. So, you know, in terms of things for having me on the show, it's

always fun to be here. UM. In terms of them following below three thousand, I mean needs to great news all around, especially when you think about the fact of, you know, the prependemic level of these claims in what was one of the best job markets in years was

around two hundred and fifteen thousand or so UM a week. UM. And I think what it really shows you when we think about this labor very confusing labor market that we're in, is we're in a jobs market where quaitsret record level, turnover is high, and businesses are struggling to fill open positions. So you know, employers are very much trying to hold onto their workers, and you know, from an inflation perspective, we've we've seen that in terms of folks raising wages,

offering all kinds of incentives and bonuses. UM. But yeah, I think the labor market is in a very interesting state right now. But the jobless claims figures really point us in that direction of things are getting better. I just thinking as you're talking about this, read, I'm just thinking about Domino's Pizza, the company reporting earnings today and saying that it can't get enough people to cook and deliver pizzas, which actually hurts sales for the most recent quarter, Carol.

So this is has a significant economic impact, right. We just heard for Penny Wheeler over the line of health healthcare, she can't get enough workers. It's just everywhere. Um. But nonetheless, this is a better sign when it comes to what we've been seeing in the labor market. And this is important, right because the jobs market, the monthly jobs markets are backward looking, and so this gives us a better better feel of real time data. Absolutely, And you know, I

don't think anyone has a great handle on what's going on. Um. But you know one piece that I thought was really good today, Uh, Katya Dmitrieva and Jill Shaw actually had a really nice Business Week piece, UM that was talking about some of the stories of folks who aren't working right now and why you know, despite the fact that

we have these near record job openings. UM. But I will say, you know, looking at the silver lining of this, I mean, from a worker perspective, you know, we have the highest clips right on record, UM, which shows that a lot of folks have a lot of confidence that they could find a new job, whether that's a job that fits their lifestyle, better, has their hours, has better pay, um, whatever it may be. UM. And you know we've seen pretty robust way games as well as employers try to

attract these folks. So UM. From a worker perspective, I mean, it is a good time to you know, be a worker. And from that point of the labor market it's quite tight UM, which has you know, obviously had implications for the set as well. Let's talk about those other numbers. I'm just thinking, is that it gets to be you know, I'm hearing this and it's like dominos can't get workers. We just heard from the CEO of a line of

health and we're getting into the end of the year. UM. Let's talk producer price index though, and and what we learned this morning, the smallest advance UH in quite a while read yeah, and you know, in that coming on the heels of the CPI data that we got a little bit earlier this week, UM, and it was it was good news and some ways because we saw some of that services inflation cooled down a little bit, UM, but we also saw a pretty still pretty robust inflation

from the good side. UM. And you know, the way that I often think about the economy where we are right now is we have lower growth and higher inflation than many economists were expecting just a few months months ago. And you know, in terms of the growth picture, you know, we've essentially seen that consumers spinning in the third quarter has proven to be much weaker than economists thought a

few months ago. A large part of that is ELSA, but you've also got these massive supply Chaine disruptions that are reaking havoc on growth and reaking havoc on PPI, the pp I index um as as well as consumer prices. UM. I mean, I just think of something like, I assume the manufacturing data where you've got solid news new orders growth, right, producers can't get the scale of material right they need

to kill those orders. It's you know, data points that investors certainly seem to be pretty happy about Bloomberg News US economic reporter read pick it. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. This is among our most read. In fact, I think it might still be the most read on the Bloomberg in the past eight hours. It's

also Today's Big Take. It's part of an ongoing Business Week online series here at Bloomberg, and this one in particular takes a look at how wealthy New Yorkers are getting a steel on property taxes. You heard it right, Tim. Jason Grotto is senior investigative reporter at Bloomberg. He joins us now on the phone from Chicago. Jason, it's great to have you on the show. Congratulations to you and

the rest of the team on today's Big Take. I read this story and I thought to myself, you know what, it is so true when you look at real estate in New York City, there the amount of money that so many condos are worth. It is shocking to see how low some of the property taxes are. You found a two million dollar condo in Brooklyn that only pays a hundred and fifty seven dollars a year in property taxes. Why is that? Well, first, thanks thanks so much for

having me. Um. Uh, it's it's the result of the system that you know, over the last thirty years or so has been you know, added to just become incredibly complex and and the low tax though on that particular condo is the result of two things. One is the extreme undervaluation of condo and and cooperatives of the market values that the city comes up with um. And then the other is the very generous um exemptions and abatements that are provided to certain condos and cooperatives that drive

the build down even further. Well, and you guys, um looked into a ton of city records when it came to condo sales and taxes. UM. So tell us in terms of your takeaway, is it policy? Is it? It's something that just has been not noticed, Like, how does something like this perpetuate for so long? Well, yeah, that's right.

So we ended up analyzing millions of property tax records in New York City and found, you know, a consistent pattern, first that the city drastically undervalues these properties by the magnitude of about and the other um thing that we found is that the valuations have a pattern. Lower priced properties are overvalued relative to market prices h market values, and higher priced ones are undervalues. And so the first part of the process, where everyone is overvalued, it really

obscures the second part, which is known as regressivity. Essentially, New York has a regressive property tax system, and the low valuations mask that because you know, if I own a two dollar home and they're only capturing eighty five thousand dollars of my value, I'm thinking, hey, I'm getting a good deal. What what I don't know is that the person owns a two million dollar home, they're only

capturing you know, two hundred thousand of that. So you know, one might be getting thirty seven of their value captured and the higher end property will be getting about and that skews the tax bills for the entire city that

valuation process. Jason, this is one of the stories that encourage everyone to read online because there's an interactive element to it, and there are some amazing, amazing visuals that show on a chart how much a condo is worth and the portion of that that they're paying in property taxes per year and it's it's pretty mind boggling to see and you really have to look at it to just understand the magnitude of it. So, what is New York City? What a New York State? What do they

say about this? Because they are leaving money on the table? Yeah, um, so we were not granted any interviews with the city despite months of trying. Um, you know, what do they do about it? You know, it's kind of the big question. And the problem here is that this issue has been going on for so long that the market itself, the real real estate market itself, has incorporated these um skewed taxes into actual values that capitalize them. So untangling this

is going to be a real problem. And that's one reason why it hasn't been six in thirty years. There have been three mayoral efforts to try to fix the property tax system in New York. So people are well aware that there's you know, underlying problems. But you know, in order to fix it, you're gonna you're talking about a massive wealth transfer. Um, people who own really high end condos and co ops will be taxed at much higher rates, which could impact the value of the property.

And that in the nutshell is why it's so hard to fix. You can't help but feel I have to say, we went through recently like a tax reassessment and like everybody was like, well wait, what is your property? Like how you know? And I feel like as transparency or if this data was all put out there and everybody, certainly those who are benefiting by not so I want that stuff put out there. But if you are being penalized, you're gonna be like, well, wait a minute, this isn't fair. Yeah.

I mean I think you know, first of all, New York is not alone in this in these issues. We published the story earlier this year looking at this at a nationwide level, and we found that that this problem of regressivity is inherent in jurisdictions across the country. New York is huge and it is particularly bad and kind of as New York goes, so it was the rest of the country. UM, so we wanted to drill down into New York. But you know, the thing that you're

touching on, the transparency piece is key. If people can't see clearly, um, it's it's very hard to understand what's going on, what is the relationship between landlords and this policy? Because I think to myself, Okay, well New York City is a place where a lot of people rent, and

I wonder to what extent landlords have had favorable tax advantages. Well, what we found is that actually the effective tax rate, which is really just you know, the property tax of bill divided by the value of the market price of the property. We found that rental properties actually pay a higher effective class rate than condos and condos because that was what we studied, but cooperatives are valued the same way UM, and and what that means is they're in

the same what they call tax class. So it's a matter of how is the distribution of the property tax burden, how is it distributed? And within the tax class, everyone should be paying the same effective tax rate. And what we found is that UM, condominiums are pay much lower effective tax rates UM than rentals. And what that means is, you know, to the extent that landlords passed the cost of taxes onto their tenants, rents are higher than they

would be UM. Potentially if if if those taxes were lower, court landlords might pocket a lot of that money as well. So it's it's a very complex problem, but you know what it means is a lot of a lot of the burden is being shifted onto rental properties. Yeah, that's interesting. It sounds like nothing's going to change. Just got about thirty seconds here right at this point. Um, I think

it's going to be very, very difficult. The political optics of it are very bad, and sort of the lessons you know that we're writing for a national audience, and the lesson is don't let it get this bad. Nothing gets people going there like property taxes and in terms of are you in taxes in general? Um, Jason, thank you. It is an in depth story, and as Tim said, check out it online because there's a lot of interactive components to it and a lot of information in details. Yeah,

you can see Jason's story. It's available at Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week. You can also get to it on the blue Berg terminal. All you gotta do is type in an I big take or just a big take. Jason Grotto, He's senior investigative reporter EP Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from Chicago. I'm ro macro journal now, but you let me drive no, no, no, no home honey, please, I'll do the right drivel I want to drive drive by good question trying this is

the drive to the globe. Give me thanks, we'll try us down on Bloomberg Radio. So just about time, minutes left and today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the Thursday trade. We are hovering near our highs, as you just heard from Charlie, just off of them. But nonetheless a rally underway. Earnings a big reason why we're gonna get into that economic data too. But let's break it down. Let's get to the drive to the close with Bloomberg News Markets reporter Abigail Doolittle. She is on

the phone in our New York City bureau. It is definitely a risk on trade and it's broad based in terms of the rally, it certainly is, Carol. We're looking at the best day for the SMP five. Charlie was mentioning up one point six percent since March. The nasdack also up the same amount. That's the best day since May. So that's the degree of the buying power and speaking to the broad based nature of the rally, all eleven of the SMP five hundred sectors are higher, most by

about one percent or more. The best is Materials up two point. That has everything to do with the rally and medals Materials and then Tech, and that has a lot to do with the fact that yielder down yet another day, relieving valuation concerns. So it's a really nice

day for stocks for sure. Hey, Abigail, I'll talk a little bit about the socks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index because it is having a day at one point higher by more than two point four percent and uh and at one point there were no stocks in the socks in the red. You know, this is an interesting one um for Shure Tim from the standpoint that the socks similar to the Russell two thousand, that small cap index in recent days has been testing its two day moving average,

something that the other indexes have not done. H that's long term support, the long term buyers, and yet it's tip to day moving averages rounding down, telling you that the near term buyers are not around. The dip buyers are gone. But today you have the socks right in between. This is a range we're seeing ranges on other indexes to and a range is all about information or all

about uncertainty. Folks are waiting for more information and I believe that will probably gather more information on a micro level from the earnings reports. Everybody wants to know not so much about demand, but about you know, supply margins, uh, the supply chains. And then of course rates, are rates going higher? Are they going lower? And forgive me the socks higher by more than two point eight per cents?

As so, were you just talking about the socks? Are the sp the socks with the fifty day You said the trend line has been moving lower. Correct, Well, they're both very similar. Um. The difference between the socks and the SMP five hundred. The socks has been in a range for much of the year, so it's been testing that too inter day moving average, whereas the SMP five hundred is between the one hundred and fifty day moving average.

But the same idea. These range bound treating areas where investors just don't know, the buyers don't have enough information to create new all time highs yet, and the sellers don't feel confident enough to push these indexes lower. If the fifty day moving averages are sloping to the downside. Uh. Some technicians really consider that to seek to be an early sign of potential weakness. Well, that's what I was going to ask you. I mean, bottom line healthy move

that we're seeing today, reactive moved. What can you tell from those technicals and the internals right now? Great question, Carrol. It's probably a little bit more reactive until you have a break out of the range. The range is exciting in terms of these up and down moves. Each week. It seems to be up and right down and then up and down and grabs a lot of attention. But the thing you really want to watch is to see which way the range breaks. And we just don't know.

We're right in the middle. It's going to come down to earnings and it will come down to inflation and rates. You know, it's interesting. I'm just I've got I think a six month up on the SMP five hundred and for a long time, even though as we pulled back, it was like this almost steady line to the up side until we got to what was it like rolling over in August and then it's really been choppy. So the one thing we know for certain is that there's

more volatility in this market. For sure. Volatility breeds volatility, and that's a terrific point on the SMP five hundred. That uptrend had been beautiful for such a long time, right, so clean and now more holding that fifty day moving average time after time after time, telling those dip buyers were there. But over the last three months, slowly but surely, the index has been rolling over a little bit, not a lot, but it's flattening. And when you have a

flattening market, it breaks the uptrend sugge. Seeing that there's enough uncertainty that you could see some sort of a correction if the buyers really don't step in, particularly after such a huge rally. You know, the SMP five hundred, like many of the other indexes from the March lows of a double to the peak or even more than a double. I mean, that's a that's a pretty significant statement that you could have these indexes going up so much.

So just a little bit of cooling off on again the micro wondering what will these earnings reports uh come out? And the supply chain. You know, there's this great chart that we've been passing around here today and yesterday. Uh. I love when ned do that and you pass around char I say that with love because I love charts to it's a fun thing to do. And this one's

especially great. It's not even a technical analysis start, it's showing that in the year of one more than three thousand mentions of supply chain have happened on earnings calls, and previous years it's much closer to one thousands. So that's the degree of the constraint coming out of the pandemic. And the big question is what does it mean for

outlooks on what does it mean for margins? That's probably the big piece of what this range in all these indexes represents right now, uncertainty about you know, our company is going to be able to continue to put up big results while their outlooks um be strong. And then going back to the inflation and the rates question too, of course, it is Abigail pretty remarkable to hear what executives from the biggest banks are saying about the economy.

Brian winnahand just now with David Weston saying that Bank of America's activity levels now bigger than before the pandemic, projects US economic growth round five the next quarter, that people have money to spend, balances up. How is this setting the tone before we can expect from other companies and look full caveat here Dave Wilson reminding me that you know, these banks are not waiting for products that are on ships off the Port of Long Beach in

Los Angeles. Yeah, that's an interesting point. I would certainly agree with Dave on that. In the way that I would think about it is it's very queer that all of the Fed liquidity and Central Bank liquidity and support out of the pandemic has certainly helped Wall Street. But will it continue to help Main Street? We just don't know, and if we continue to have these supply chain issues

and labor issues. I mean Domino's Pizza today. Initially when their report came out, they missed sales, and the thought was that had to do with not as much interest in pizza because of the pandemic, pizza fatigue. Basically am there was like, no way, I love my pizza. I love pizza too, I love white pizza, but I actually love Domino's cheesy break Oh learning a lot about the chartress. Yes, so we have a little bit of a Domino's habit. But in any case, they miss sales not because of demand,

but because of labor. They didn't have enough people to take the orders and deliver the pizza. Yeah, we see that in other sort of retail stores of all thorces a crisis, That's what I say. Hey, we gotta run great, great perspective. Bloomberg News Markets Reporter Abigail Doolittle. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

or watch us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News All