Trump Losing Support From Key Conservatives

us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. So let's get into it. So many headlines delighted to have with us. Dr William Moss, Executive Director of the International Vaccine Access Center, Professor in the Departments of Epidemiology, International Health, and Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and of course the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Moss with us on the phone in Baltimore. I wanted to lay it all out for everyone. Dr Moss. First of all, thank you so much for being here, Um, I do feel like there's so much going on, and I feel like it's it's some optimism and yet again a reminder that we are still in a global pandemic. That's worrisome. Yes it is, and thank you for having me, Carol. Um. We are seeing record numbers of cases in the United States.

We're seeing high numbers of deaths, hospitals that are really being stretched to the limits, and that that pattern is going to continue for the next couple of months as we head into winter, more more people being indoors, more

people interact indoors into the holiday season. But as you said there, we also have some optimism with the reports of the vaccine efficacy from the fist or vaccine being much higher than people expected, recognizing that we only know about this through a press release presumably from a review of the data by an independent day if they monitoring board. But well, we still do not know right as as these headlines come out from a fiser. We're anticipating some

news from Maderna as well. That's promising. We don't know what how long protection lasts. We don't know exactly what these vaccine ultimately will do. Right, that's right there, are still a number of outstanding questions. Then I have a confidence will be able to answer these questions. But what we know now is that in this late stage of these phase three clinical trials, with the results from the Fiser vaccine demonstrating showing you know, high protection of people

who got the vaccine were protected compared to the placebo group. UM. But as you said, there's still a number of outstanding questions. For example, we don't know what the vaccine efficacy is in older adults or people with underlying medical conditions that place them at higher risk for severe disease of COVID nineteen that come out of the trial results, But we don't know that now. We don't know how long this

protection is gonna last. We hope it's gonna last a year, years or more UM, but we just don't know, and that's going to take further follow of these participants in the trials Until we really know how long the protection lasts. We also won't know whether they're the long term side effects. UM. Again, we need the longer follow up, We need the full trial data to be able to see that. But right now, what we'll be able to say is in the short term,

this these vaccines look protective, vaccines look safe. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Well, yes, fingers crossed, right, Dr Mossa. What happens next? Um? You know, I do feel like we are all learning about I've said it before, how the sausage is made in terms of vaccine development, right, and we're all talking about it so much. And I know that there's some nervousness about the rapidity of the process,

but we are learning about how it all happens. So what's kind of next year, whether it's the Fiser vaccine, whether it's Maderna's vaccine. What are you anticipating how things play out over the next few weeks, a few months. Yes, and you're exactly right. I don't think there's ever been such public scrutiny of the vaccine development and evaluation products.

What we anticipate happening next is that a company such as Fiser Maderna will need to put admit an application to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization so that these vaccines could be made available to high risk individuals as early as possible. What the Food and Drug Administration has put forth as guidelines is that the trials need to wait until at least half of the

participants have had two months of follow up uh. Fiser anticipates that that's going to happen later this month or fourth week of November, and then they will be able to submit their application for an emergency use authorization to the f d A. The the all the trial data will then be reviewed by an independent body. Hopefully data will be made public. Hopefully this whole process will be transparent.

We need that for the public's trust UM and they would anticipate shortly after the application and this review process that there would be, assuming the safety and efficacy data hold up UM, that will have an emergency use authorization. Fiser says that they'll have forty fifty million doses ready to go UM by the end of this year. That's been one of the things that's allowed this process to be accelerated, that the manufacturing has has gone on with

the studies and nothing changes. Right. The drug is the drug, so it's not like wait a minute, up, so we have to tinker with the vaccine a little bit, right what it is, and that's why they've been all to vaccine, I mean to manufacture the vaccine exactly, so you know, there would have not be any any kind of changes to the vaccine that was used during the trials. They have, but they have scaled up that manufacturing. So bottom line, emergency use, Dr Moss, you anticipated by the end of

the year, especially for those who really need it. I think so. Again, assuming that the safety and efficacy data hold up that we're hearing about through this press release, I would expect by the end of this year, and and perhaps earlier in December, that we would have an emergency use authorization and begin to h Then then we could begin to provide the vaccine to the high risk

individuals that may be healthcare workers and older adults. So one of the things I wanted to ask you is there was a story, Doctor Moss that talked specifically and let me just find it. It had to do with I think MINX and just what that meant the COVID explosion. Mink. Our headline was that it's a dangerous sign for vaccines. Um, tell me what we need to know and what this might mean. Well, what what we want to know it is a fascinating story, is whether this virus can be

transmitted among animals? Uh that are you know, potentially introduced from humans to animals. We know that that this virus probably started in animals, perhaps bats uh, and then was transmitted to humans UM. But finding the virus circulating in other wild animals UM makes it, you know, raises concerns about our ability to really rid ourselves of this virus.

UM would the virus can mutate and change its genetic structure within animals UM, but it also animals wild animals can also serve as a reservoir of the virus, potentially sending the virus back into human populations. That's what we would be concerned about. We don't have evidence of that yet, but that's why that was such a important news. So if that was the case, that animals can serve as a reservoir to send the virus back to humans, it

just sounds terrible. Does that mean that we could potentially have a world where we are just constantly dealing with this Yes, and even without an animal reservoir, you know, another a new animal reservoir or another animal reservoir, we still maybe living with this virus for a long time. It's clear that we're going to be able to eradicate this virus from human transmission. But if we're able to achieve and and we you know that's potentially possible with

a highly effective vaccine that that stops transmission um. Having an animal reservoir just that's so much more difficult because potentially we could have new human infections. Okay, I'm just sitting with that. So what I'm trying to yeah, right, just just kind of like layer it on. You know.

The other thing I guess I've been trying to get my head around is I mean the virus that we deal with, the seasonal flu virus that we deal with, right, it mutates, right, and we're constantly trying to come up with new vaccines. You can alter it and kind of keep ahead of it. As a COVID nineteen, Well it's COVID nineteen because of when it started getting you know, coming in. But this particular strain of coronavirus, as it mutates, how quickly is it or how easily is it to

adapt an existing vaccine to keep up with the mutations. Right, That's a really important question. And you know, influenza is a very different type of virus. Um. It has the ability to kind of swap out pieces of itself. Uh, it's it's genetic it's genome um and that allows it to make big changes. That's why we get pandemic influenza. But even smaller changes are are why we need to have a different vaccine each year. Corona the Stars coronavirus

two does mutate. All viruses mutate, all all viruses change their genetic structure, but we we haven't seen that. We don't see the degree of mutation and change, uh, certainly that we see with influenza viruses. And just to give you another example, the measles the measles vaccine that we use in most of the world in the United States that came from a wild type measles virus isolate from the nineteen fifties, and we have not needed to change

our measles vaccines over time. So I think that the coronavirus will be closer to measles than to influenza in terms of our need to uh constantly update or reinvent our our coronavirus vaccines. So that's a good thing, right, Yes, that's a good thing. Yes. So what do you anticipate, I mean, do you feel like you have some visibility? I felt like the world got some visibility Monday because of Fiser and we felt a little bit more confident.

UM just got about fifty seconds left. You feel like a year from now we're able to open up society more than you know, than we have been. Or is it a shorter time frame or a longer time frame? What do you think? Yes, I'm optimistic that we'll be able to data vactors will be able to have enough vaccine, probably different types of vaccines, and be able to get these to the general public probably in mid to late one,

and that that will help us begin open up. But I think it's very important for people to know that that's not going to happen in January. In February and March, we're going to have We're facing a very difficult winter, I think here in the United States and i'm sure in Europe, UM, and we're gonna need to continue to to wear masks and and distance and wash our hands and all those met those public health measures until later year.

I'm glad you said that masks and social distancing because I just want everyone to remember, UM and we've been talking to a lot of folks right it's multifaceted and getting this under control, UM, Dr Moss Brilliant, executive director of the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins, joining us on the phone from Baltimore. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. All right, do you want to get into something that kicks off on Monday.

We're talking about the Bloomberg New Economy Form. It kicks off virtually four days of incredible global, global programming with a blockbuster lineup of leaders, and they cover kind of all the global concerns that we need to be talking about. It's also, by the way, our cover story this week. Let's get into it with Business Week Economics editor Christina Lynn Blatch. She's in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, and also with us Bloomberg Business Week Editor Joel Webber, he

is on the phone in Brooklyn. Until you have an array of stories in the magazine that relate to the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, that's right, And and really Christina was the architect of this little package of stories and and she did a great job. And that was one of the reasons that um I wanted to have around

the show today. And obviously we talked about Zel yesterday, which is um, I thought just a phenomenally interesting one, UM in regards to Venezuela and sort of how people they are making use of it to do something that you know, the company and you know Zell never intended to have happened. Um. And that's just sort of an example.

I think of the approach that Christina used throughout the issue is sort of like, how do we tap into some of these biggest challenges that that we face, that humanity faces, And obviously that kind of starts with the pandemic since that is the you know, one of the stories of the year for sure. UM, Christina can that and kind of lay out, um, what what you learned about this story by Jason Galen and Longhaulers. Yeah, thanks

Carol for having me on. I've been interested in the long haulers for a while because I think we were also focused for every day still on infection rates and hospitalizations and and and that, but also to understand that there are people who some of them have symptoms that are so bad that they're almost disabled, they cannot go back to work and it's been several months, and and that the scientific and health community can't answer the questions

that they have about whether they're ultimately going to be done with this, you know, how long are they going to have these symptoms? Well, and it's interesting Christina, considering um, you know, I think there's sometimes some populations being kind of cavalier about COVID nineteen. And you have to remember that, you know, some people get it, they don't have a lot of um, you know, leftover effects if you will, and then other people get it and it stays with them,

as you just said, for a really long time. It's just a reminder that this virus packs us all in very different ways. That's right. Actually, one of the things that we found is that sometimes people who had no symptoms, are very light symptoms actually had the biggest problems with you know, the sort of long term viral um hangover you would say, hm, and you know the other hangover that um we're all going to kind of be faced with.

Here is the economic implications of this, because COVID can have multi organ impacts and implications, and we're also starting to see that there will be an impact in terms of disability. What does that mean for all of us? Christina? Well, that's I think we talked to several researchers who are trying to answer just that question, and something that's starting to grapple with I mean, there have been comparisons to polio,

for instance, to try to have long range estimates. So what would it be like if there had been no vaccines that you know, they came in at the right time. And I think that's going to be important here. Obviously the vaccine, you know, not to have more infected population, but we still will have to answer the questions of how we help people who UM have damaged their organs, their hearts UM and sometimes need UM not just pulmonary rehabilitation,

but they're also having people describe brain fogs. M. So Christine and I want to talk to about Tom or like a Bloomberg economic story which sort of talks about how they've done. They crunch a bunch of numbers to try and figure out sort of what the path of global economies is going to look like over the next couple of years and decades, and they go so far as to say, right about, we're going to see a shift in terms of UM free market economies being overtaken

by by state driven ones. UM. Can you talk about what where else he goes in that story and what it means for for us. Can I just say to this is a must read. Everybody has to read this

to kind of understand, I think where our world is going. Christina, Yeah, I think he did a good job of laying out where where we're going to be at mid century and to put numbers to something that we've been tracking for a while, which is the sort of some people said the Asian century, you know, like that this the century

belongs to Asia and so overall emerging markets. Um at the start of the century where about of GDP, but you know, through by twenty fifty, there will be more than half, almost six, and China will be by far, you know, the biggest um the biggest part of that.

And we have this great graphic that sort of shows the reordering of the top ten economies, you know, and basically China bumps the US off the number one slot, India bumps Japan out of number three slot, and you know, and you see sort of the kind of youthful developing markets, you know, moving up and the sort of aging econom me is moving down. I gotta I have to say, like I said, this is a mustery, but there's a line in the story. It's optimistic to assume that all

these transitions will be smooth. Ha, Like it's going to be uncomfortable right as these changes happen globally, well we've seen in the last four years and even now when Biden, you know, will assume office that that, um, the big power struggles that are going on right there, going on in the fields of trade of I P, you know, and all these different dimensions. I mean, there's this idea that you know that it's there's bound to be conflict when there are these these sort of disruptions in the

in the sort of established order. Christian. I also want to talk about the other elephant in the room, which is climate change. And I know Eric Crosston was on program yesterday talk about the story the wildfire story uh in California, which is this, you know, really a case in how bad wildfires can get and as climate change amplifies these things to make it worse. It's it's it means millions of people find themselves with fires at the front door, when you know, just a few decades ago

that wasn't a problem. Uh. And want to talk about the angle that was really in that story around insurance and what it means for that industry. Well, I think what was really interesting about that stories is to focus on the modeling of risk, which is integral to the insurance industry. So for flooding, for example, there's been years um of work already done on what areas and homes are at risk. But for fire, this is a much more emerging field. Maybe not so much emerging, but that

there's so many factors, more factors at work. UM that we talked, for example, to people who are building these models and saying, oh, I can never actually finish building this model because then we realized, you know, there's this other factor that we didn't account for properly. Well, this these models formed the foundation of kind of of how the insurance industry looks at the risk that it faces

in that state. And we have this great anecdote about one UM scientists who delivered a presentation and in the audience where several people representative from the insurance industry. His presentation was about what happens in fires that breakout in canyons um and and the people after came up to him and said, that's it. We're done, Like we're getting

out of the state. It's like, if you know what I mean, if the just such crazy scary scenarios that yeah, it's just you know, things that we've never thought we'd be dealing with. But right, and there's so many implications of it. Um great stuff as always Bloomberg Business Week, Economics that are Christina Lynn Blad and of course our Bloomberg Business we get it, or Joel Weber joining us, the Bloomberg New Economy form. It does kick off on Monday.

It's virtually it's four days of global programming, a blockbuster agenda, a lineup of leaders in business, government, finance, the market's, healthcare, climate, you name it. And they are dealing with everything from the coronavirus to climate change, really the biggest challenges humanity faces. I'm looking forward to a panel I'm doing later in the week that's all about how did we get here when it comes to a virus. It's amazing in terms of the lineup. This is Bloomberg Business Week with furo

Master on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed, you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. We're gonna stay with politics from a We just talked with Jonathan Bernstein about Joe Biden's pick uh for his White House chief of staff. But we want to get to what seems to feel like some a little bit of a political shift in uh the horror should say, a shift in the political wins. Yeah, I'll get that out, um, at least when it comes

to President Trump support from some key conservatives. Back with us on what's going on and why, Bloomberg News Politics editor Wendy Benjaminson. She is back with us on the phone from d C. I'm just trying to keep up with the headlines. I'm just gonna tell you, um, what's going on with the conservatives and kind of coming out like it's time to call this election. Basically back off. It's at least that's what it feels like, Wendy. It feels like that Carol High and yet it's not quite

that yet. What they're saying is that he should be getting an intelligence briefing every day, which every president elect gets, um, a secure intelligence briefing what's going on in the world, because he's going to take over on January twenty, and they sort of like to know what's going on before they get into the Oval office. Because the Trump administration

is blocking his access to the normal transition activities. Joe Biden, who even though he's a former vice president, is now a private citizen yet president elect um, he doesn't have access to classified information and they will not make those available. So some conservative senators, especially those on the Senate Intelligence Committee, are saying, come on, at least give him the intelligence

briefings in case he's president. We think it's better for the war old that he has, you know, deep inside into what's going on. Well, we as Americans, should we be concerned that he's not? I don't think terribly concerned. Biden himself said that at a news conference that he held on Wednesday Tuesday. Excuse me, he said he would it would be nice if he was getting it, but he's confident that he'll be able to catch up. Of course,

that's him trying to create a contrast. Biden has been very careful lately to project this calm, everything's okay, a worry sort of attitude, while Trump is um. While President Trump is rage tweeting. So it's um. It's it's a strategy, of course, Well, what's going on in the White House?

I gotta ask you. I think one of our top red stories is about kind of Fox News or Fox The shares are down because there's concerns about, you know, President Trump, what he's going to do next and maybe create a competing network or be part of a competing network. What's going on here? I even saw some betting markets are suggesting he's going to replace Alex Trebek as host of Jeopardy. I don't think that happen either. That wasn't an official official prediction. Um. What's going on in the

White House? Anyone's guess as good as mine. We UM. No one has seen I mean, no one outside the White House has seen the president, um, except for that golf outing over the weekend or and he went to the memorial. But he hasn't had any public statements, He hasn't had any public activities or invited reporters and photographers into the Oval office like he normally does. So you know, we all we know about what he's thinking and doing is from is from his tweets, UM, and a few

executive orders that he's been putting out. UM. But otherwise, yeah, he's UM, he's just quietly doing his job. Yeah right, yeah, exactly. Well, what's interesting going back to you know some of the Republicans I do under Wendy, I mean, do they want essentially, can they get an assist? Do they need an assist from President Trump? When it comes to those outstanding Georgia Senate races? Can he help them in terms of winning no seats? Oh? I think he could. I think he could.

And there are there is a lot of money on both sides going down to Georgia. Um, there is a lot of the Democrats will be fighting for those seats very hard. Um, and so will the Republicans. Whether Donald Trump himself will go down to Georgia and help them campaign, it's hard to tell if he has decided that he's lost the election. I mean, if he comes to the realization that he's lost the election before, then he might

not bother. It's not really in his personality to work for the good of the party when it doesn't benefit him personally. I'm not trying to be subjective. I just after observing him for four years, UM, so I'm not sure he would he would bother trying to help form a Republican Senate if he's not going to be president. Um. Well, and then, and then what's kind of the role of Mitch McConnell and all of this right, because I think

I was, I don't know. I think I was surprised initially when Mitch McConnell, who had been quiet, you know, and then came out and basically said, you know, the president has a right to a recount. And I think that's fair right. Anybody who says a close race has has the right. But where's Mitch McConnell. What's going on behind the scenes, What are you guys hearing? Well? The sun of Majority Leader is UM. He is right that the president has a right to a recount. Anyone does UM.

I think you know that he is. He's also saying there has to be evidence. He's saying there shouldn't be any you know, far fetched claims, UM. And I think privately, my guess is, and it's just a guess, is that behind the scenes, he's thinking it's over and he's making plans to UM. But he's making plans to have a Republican Senate then will stop UM? President elected Biden's most progressive instincts. But it's still up in the air right until those races happen. It's up in the air until

those races happen. Right there. They right now. I think it's in the Senate pretty well. If if the Democrats get one more, then Vice President Kamala Harris could be the tiebreaker. If they get two more than they wouldn't even need her. But Republicans get one more, then um, they have the majority. You know. It is interesting too,

as you said, the president being kind of quiet. But you know, we had a headline we just mentioned a little whiles ago, a little while ago, excuse me, about the president banning investment in some Chinese companies, so you know, and he's talking about a military type So he's still doing things and we do guys and your team put out that there are things he will do can do that will upset certainly the global community or upset financial markets.

Oh absolutely, Carol. I mean he is president until noon on January twentie, so he can do a tremendous number of things that he's and and any president he can do whatever that he would normally do until January twenty. Normally they begin to work sort of in concert with each other. They try not to just mess things up before the other guy comes there. But um, you know,

we'll see what happens this year. All right, So, Wendy, I mean, we're in a COVID world sets like you can jump on a plane after all this is over and things calm down and go to the Caribbean. But I do wonder when do you guys and your team anticipate that things start to slow down? Is it after we get through these senate races? When is it ultimately?

I mean, I know we're gonna have a new administration, but I mean once we get through still kind of these outstanding races, right, I think really it will be when the president concedes, that concedes the race. Um, you know, President elect Biden is Um, he's having called the foreign leaders, but he's gone to his house on the beach for

the weekend. Um. You know, he's he's taking he's making appointments, but he's moving in such a sort of deliberate, traditional um way that we can already see the pace of the next administration will be much more like what we're used to before. A little normalcy would be okay, a little calm. Right. I'm assuming she would have said yes, all right. Bloomberg News Politics editor Wendy Benjamin soon joining us on the phone from Washington, d C. Check it

all the political coverage. Uh, you can just go to the Bloomberg terminal or check out Bloomberg dot com room journal now, but you let me drive? No, no, no, drive home, honey please, I'll do the riding drivel Let me I want to drive, Just drive baby, good question trying. This is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks, we'll drying us down on Bloomberg radio. Is indeed time

for the drive to the close. Quick check on where we are just with about thirteen minutes left to today's trading session, are about twelve minutes actually SNP five hundred, we're down fifty one points, down one point at twenty one. Now at fifteen, that's such a line of four hundred eighty points, down one point six percent. And you've got the nasdack the outperformer, but still down, but down only about nine tenths of one percent, a loss of a hundred and nine points. Do also want to get a

check on the treasury trade. We've got equities pretty much near the loads of the session. Big moves and equities we've all also seen some big moves when it comes to uh, the yields and all along the yield curve, you've got that tenuere note with the yield of point eight seven nine, you've got the five year note yielding point thirty nine and taking a look at the shorter end of the yiel curve that two year notes, specifically, UH down with the yield um I should say, actually up,

but the yield down to point one seven. All right, Let's bring in Leslie Falconio. She runs the Tactical Asset Allocation UH team within US Fixed Income over at UBS Wealth Management, senior strategist at UBS. UH there and joins us on the phone from Florida. It is good to have you here, Leslie, and I feel like it's really timely in topical because we're watching equity sell off investors moving into treasuries. This trade, it was a very different trade or earlier in the week, Which one is right?

You know, over the long term, the earlier one of the week is right. I mean there's no question that you know, we saw this a little bit large of a bear steep. Every industrates rose the long and underperformed for two reasons. One, we had historic supply this week right in the tenure in the bond and also from the news from Fiser too which really pushed out and had the hopes of the end of the pandemic, which

pushed out this growth and inflation outlook. So I do think that over the longer term, this bear steeper is going to be the right allocation. Right now is expected because the yields moved so high and you are going into the winter months, it's expected to have a temporary pullback, right exactly. So what's your advice to investors? Just kind of sit tight, just believe in that earlier the trade, earlier in the week, and just understand that we're going

to see some volatility. I think that's absolutely true. I mean, I think I think that the point is is that even though we don't know the exact amount of statophysical simul Savada and a lot of headlines on that today, you do believe that it will come. It will mostly come in you know, the first quarter. It's very difficult to say the amount, But just understand that, as we know, we've had a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus in this system. There's a lot of liquidity in the system.

We're seeing things like such as corporate spreads, high yield and invest in grade corporate tighten well to pre pre COVID level. So again there's gonna be the short term sort of you know, pockets of vulnerability as the headline risk comes across with COVID, particularly as we enter the winter months. But just so it's long term, it's still for rising growth, it's still for our outlook that over the first half of you will have a vaccine that's

hopefully widely dissemin it. And I just want to mention, forgive me headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal. Uh, this seems to be coming from the Wall Street Journal specifically and has to do with TikTok, and let me just bring it up here again the Commerce Department announcing a stay of the TikTok shut down order. So again the Commerce

Department announcing a stay the TikTok shut down order. So basically not looking to necessarily imp who's that specifically, because this was kind of a doomsday uh, I guess day in terms of potentially what could happen to TikTok. So look for a little bit more of a right through

on that on the Bloomberg. So um getting back to the fixed income trade here, Leslie, So where are you finding the best opportunities within the market right now, well, you knows, as I said, because of the FED backs up and by the way, they have a lot of dry powder and left right, they have a lot of purchasing power. Left you know, they haven't used a lot

of facilities that they have the ability to use. So given the fact that you know how yields investor grade corporates have compressed so much to pre COVID levels, we like the senior loan side. We'd like to see a low side. And for truss one is because we think of the floating word, asset is going to be definitely value added as we had to twenty twitter one and

yields rise. And secondarily that as the classes really lad but a lot of this liquidity, a lot of some of the recovery that we've seen has started to push demand. So that's one of the asset class that we like in fixed income. Secondarily as well, we also like the

tips market. You know, we think that break even inflation rates will will rise into one We're not expecting, you know, large amounts of inflation because there are structural changes that are not going away anytime soon, whether it's demographics or technology. But we do think inflation expectations should rise as the economy reopens and the fence stays out hoold for loose? The next one, do you really believe inflation is going to start to finally tick higher? Are you just talking

about from where it's been. I think inflation expectations will tip higher, and that's that's the difference. I mean, we don't think there's going to be this hyper inflation. But however, with that said, I mean the savings rates very high. We do think consumer spending will hit greater demand as we head into the second farm We are a little bit negative on the dollar. I mean, all these aspects

lead to higher inflation, but not necessarily high inflation. It's just that the expectation right now is still fairly low. So that's why we like tips as a diversifier. Hey, when your team gathers around the virtual table there at UBS, I do wonder when you think about a by administration, the policies that might come down, whether it's economic policies, whether it's tax policies. You know, what are you guys thinking that, you know, the policies that might become a

reality that might impact you know, your university fixed income universe. Well, you know when on the six income side. I mean, listen what we know and what we saw. We saw this on election date when you had this twenty basis point turn and in tenure yields, which is the biggest voluctility we have seen since Marge, the blue wave and the momentum traders that such a blue wave priced in with this whole physical stimulus that was large, therefore larger deficits,

therefore larger more supply into the drudgury market. You saw the spike and raids in it reversed. I mean on the fixed income side, given the fact we could have this divided government, you know, which is expected. You know, obviously corporate taxes aren't this bunch of an issue. You know, large amounts of supply into the treasure market, although are still large, are just gonna be rising by less. So therefore you have more of a sort of gradual rising

interest rates. You have the ability for corporations to spend more on kept effects that worry about, you know, tax recality, because all these taxes that would have gone through possibly the blue wave will sort of be shut down now, So it's more of the gridlocks of Goldilocks type of scenario in the sense that you know, you get a small rise but not a lot of necessarily headwards in

terms of look things like taxer. So listen, today three of the world's top central bankers warned that the prospect of a COVID nineteen vaccine is just not enough to put an end to the economic challenges created by the pandemic. I mean this is Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell. We also had the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine legarde Um speaking at an event, and I mean, listen, we've heard this before from central bankers.

Do you have faith in global policy makers that they're going to get this right? Not global policymakers, I'm talking about you know, policymakers, legislators, whether it's our US Congress and the equivalent around the world. Well, there's no question that it has to come to the fiscal side, and we do need more fiscal side. List I mean, you know, having follow lower interest rates at the levels that we have been added, not going to incrementally make them into

the difference. Right we have we have a mortgage rate at a at a fifty year low, so on the consumer side that's creates loring interest rates any further is not going to have a huge impact. It really needs to come from a fiscal stimulus. And I do believe that what the policy makers will do, you know, it's not sort of hike too early like they did in December of two thousand fifteen. So I think that having

this lower for longer reason will be the benefit. But there's no question that it has to come from the fiscal side, because the incrementcial benefit of loring interest rates given the level we are right now, is just not gonna have no matter that much. Yeah, there's a point where I mean it's like, come on, guys, Umm, gonna leave it there. Leslie, Thank you so much, Really appreciate it. Leslie Focconio. She is senior strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management,

on the phone from Florida. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sort of check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Blueberg Radio. Be sure to watch us to on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News MHM