Tracking and Identifying COVID-19 Cases

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio Well Testing Tracing. They are at the core of everything that happens going forward. We hear about it from the President, we hear about it from experts on the Coronavirus Task Force, from governors, from mayors, etcetera. Let's talk to someone who is working on this on the front lines on a national level. Anita Cicero is

deputy director of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. It's part of the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. As you might tell by the name, the Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by Mike Bloomberg. He's the founder of Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Philanthropy's parent company of this radio station. Anita, So good to talk to you. Good to be here, Jason. So what you're doing, as I said, is just really at the crux of all of this.

This is going to determine what happens next. Where are we when it comes to really rolling out a plan to find cases and to trace folks, Well, we we do need a national plan for that, and so far UM there has not been one. UM CDC has provided some useful guidance, and UM talked about the role of contact tracing and fighting the pandemics. But we developed our own report on testing and contact tracing because we really feel that that is the thing that's going to make

the difference UM in this outbreak. And for contact tracing, it just involves finding out who an infected person came in contact with, so that those individuals to be alerted and UM and also quarantined in order to monitor their health and to make sure that they don't continue spreading the virus UM in public. UM. So this is critically important at this juncture, especially if we're going to be

lifting social distancing. I gotta say I need to Every morning I wake up, I throw on Google and I say, you know, give me the top news headlines and I hear about what's going on around the country. In terms of starting these efforts UM to get control of the virus. Tell me how a testing and tracing system will work, what's the money needed to implement it, what are the people needed to implement it, and what does someone like me at home or Jason at holm, what do we

need to know about it? And what will we ultimately need to do to make this work? All very good questions. So UM UH contact tracing is something that's it's really a traditional, old, tried and true method of being able to trace UH the spread of infection and to control the infections so that it's not spread further. And public health agencies across the US have been doing this for years. They do it UM to track these those cases tuberculosis

UM sexually transmitted infections. So this is something that our state and local public health agencies know how to do UM. Now that being said, they are understaffed and underfunded. I think public health budgets UM in the past fifteen years have been cut by UM. Most public health agencies in the United States before COVID did not have UM staff that were dedicated full time to contact tracing. This is one of the many, many things that public health does

UM in the course of their their jobs. And so what what is really needed is to have funding that will go to the state, the state UM public health departments and local public health departments so that they can do a cup things UM. One is really to hire a significant number of of workers UM or use volunteers and train them so that they can assist with contact tracing methods and also UM to to maybe make use of some new technologies that may be coming online soon

that can assist with contact tracing UM. And in terms of what is is UM, what's important to know about this is that you know, we are all very you know, it's desperate to get back to life as maybe not completely normal, but more normal than we are living through

right now with these strict social distancing requirements. And the key to being able to circulate again in public is for the United States to know where all of its COVID cases are UM, so to to use the testing to order in order to identify all those cases and then also be able to contact people who could have been exposed to a confirmed case to make sure that

they're quarantined for fourteen days and stay out of circulation. UM. Once we're able to do that, then and we we know more or less where the cases are than others who are not infected and who weren't exposed, UM will be more able to go to work and and UM and go to more you know, shops and and you know. Again, it will be a while before things are completely back to normal, but at least that it would allow social distancing measures to be relaxed. So it is really important

UM in order to try to get this right. So Anita and we're going to continue our conversation just a few minutes, but in about a minute, tell us, I mean collaboration and coordination seems really important. How confident are you that we can do this between the federal and eight and local levels. Well, again, we need funding. I really have a lot of confidence in UM, state and local public health officials to be able to have given the resources to be able to manage UM these programs

and UM we can talk more about it. But the training that's required it's not that extensive or that complicated. So this is something that can be done. It's not a moonshot, it's just the unesting it needs to be

there to hire the workforce. Still with us as a need assist or a deputy director of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health joining us from Washington, d C. I need one thing I did want to get from you, because you folks at Johns Hopkins have just been incredible in terms of keeping track of the virus and really giving a good indication and perspective on where we are, where we're going, where we need to be going, based on you know,

the actions of everybody around the country. You also, you're a lawyer, You've worked in Washington. You unders and pharmaceuticals, the regulatory framework, UM, the policy framework. Uh, what do you think is realistic in terms of us actually getting a vaccine that can tackle this virus? Well, I that's

the you know, million dollar question right there. UM. And the good news is that I think governments, UM, and international organizations and industry are all focused on that goal UM and working very hard, UM contributing a lot of funding for that UM. I think that in in our country, um F d A has shown some flexibility in terms

of regulatory issues surrounding UM development of vaccine UM. But the you know, the fact is that it's really critical to have randomized controlled trials to prove um the f can see and and also you know safety of vaccines that come online, and to do that well, UM, it does take some time. So I think it's gonna require some patients. I I'm optimistic that we will get there ultimately, but it's um, it's unlikely to be right around the corner.

But this year or next year. I would not um place my bets that will happen this year, Okay, but you know, one can hope right right well, and and certainly you know, some of the treatment on the treatment side, of the therapeutic side obviously, So I'm not great news today,

uh from Gilead. You know. Meanwhile, closer to home here in New York, you know, we got some data that was it feels like at least as being interpreted as somewhat positive in the sense of the spread and the number of people who have developed antibodies here Anita, what does that tell us and how does that figure into

this tracing project that you're working on. Naturally, when you see figures like that coming out of New York and New York City, especially where you know upwards of people you know have been exposer actually have had the virus and now have the antibodies. Help us understand how this all fits together well. The testing and contact tracing in addition to UM antibody testing which is called strology testing, are all part of a disease surveillance system and they

would all have a role to play. UM. I think there's a lot of hope that eventually there'll be enough cases in you know, particular population to say, oh, now we have herd immunity lenning enough people have been exposed that UM, they're less likely to continue to be infected UM. But even though there are some encouraging signs for different places based on strology testing, UM, we there's no community

that is close to herd immunity UM. I think that in terms of the antibody tests to UM, because there were some relaxed regulatory requirements UM and to try to get tests out as soon as possible. UM. There's UM. It's sort of a mixed bag now. So some have shown to have some you know, sensitivity UM issues and

and and problems and UM. And so I think that FDA is sort of braining that back in a bit and making sure that strology testing that is available is you know, known to be reliable to determine the antibodies and and then more work needs to be done really to confirm that the presence of antibodies UM confers immunity for people. And how long that immunity? Laughs, Hey, one thing we wanted to ask you just got thirty seconds

here the hardest hit area, New York. They're finding that over the people tested positive for a blood marker that they had been infected at some point with the virus. Just again about twenty five seconds. What what's important about that that we need to know just quickly. Well, it could be that those those people therefore have the anti bodies and would not be UM reinfected with COVID anytime,

you know, for months at least UM. But also potentially they could participate and donate UM plasma for UM other patients UM who needed in order to help build their anti bodies up to protect against the disease. All right, all right, we really appreciate it, Thank you so much. Great contacts. Anitasis Row Deputy director of John's Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, obviously the Bloomberg School of Public Health supported by Mike Bloomberg,

founder of Bloomberg LP. You are listening to bloom Burg Business Week, and you know, Carol, when we map out our show, there are some moments that I look forward to just as a way to sit back, sort of rest into the show and just talk to a really smart person. And I know this is that moment. Joanas Sarah. I love Joe No Sarah, one of my favorite folks, been reading his stuff for years and now listening to

the dulcin sound of his voice. So we're buttering you up because we really I'm telling you, I really like you. Guys just want to you guys, just want to take a rest and let me talk. We would do that. Um, I was gonna I was gonna pump up your podcast a little bit. The Shrink next door. It's perfect quarantine listening if you if you're like one of the three people in America hasn't already listened to it. But um, we find you in Southampton, safe and sound, I hope.

And also what's it like out there? Can we ask you what's it like out there. Well, let me just put it this way. One maintenance is an essential sentual activity. You're working in the art a lot. No. No, what I'm saying is people are people are the workers, the law business are are just going crazy out here. It's like it's kind of unbelievable, really, um, I mean, and then most of the ways were like everybody else, everybody's

wearing a mask. You can't go into certain stores. There's a ton of takeout because, um, you know, there's somebody. New Yorkers are together are so used to take out that that all the restaurants are actually doing a pretty good business. Um uh with take our pizza, take our pasta, take out, steaks, take out every day. Um. But you know it's it's it's quiet. It's it's definitely quiet. All right. So what are the reasons we wanted to talk to you today? Just and again, we we love talking to

you anytime. But I mean, you've had some some pretty provocative, as you tend to columns, sort of taking stock of where we are at this moment, especially when it comes to the rescue that is underway. From the corporate side. You've written a number of books about this. You understand the financial system really well and in the corporate world, what do you make of it so far? Because you you've been a critic, I think it's fair to say

of how this is going well. I mean, the first thing is the right way to do this, honestly, is to put money in hands of the people, other than trying to run it through a bank, uh and a business. It's it's that's a crazy way to do it. And you know, they're always in this. They're in this situation now where they're just going to keep shoveling money to banks, they're gonna keep shuggling to businesses. And it's been a

first It's first come for sure. So you know people are saying, well, the big companies got it first, and that's how I'm there. The big companies are organized, they know how to do this, they know how to get in the door. The little guy, the corner pizza joint, he needs help, and um, they're not going to get that help for the federal government. So you know, I just think that proceeding the way we are is the wrong way to proceed. Let me just say one other

quick thing. I'm so tired of being jealous of Germany. But they've done this so right. They've given every citizen a stipend for a four or five months, and that's the way they're they're keeping their economy and their their country going. What do you think there's any appetite to do that here? Or is is the horse out of

the barn? Now the horse is out of the barn, and it's it's just something that UM America is you know, idiologically America had a hard time with that, at least on the right, especially on the right, and UM, I just don't think we're going to go that way, even though it's obviously the most sensible way to do this. Yeah, but how do we break the system general? I mean, it's the big companies that listen or that you know that lawmakers listen to. I mean, they're the ones that

have you know, the path direct path to Washington. Well, you know, I don't blame this on the big companies. I mean the big companies first of all, the ib ms, the zeroctors, the h t s, they're they're gonna be fine, They're gonna survive, They've got money in the bank. They're they're all trying to keep their employees uh on the payroll as much as they can. Um Uh. It's the it's the the issue really is the small the small businesses,

the corner scores. You know. I'm terrified that when we come out of this, you know, of the small businesses in America are going to be gone. And that's that's the tragedy to be worried about. So Joe shifting gears

a little bit, maybe dramatically. I want to talk a little bit about sports, because it's something you've written a lot about, uh and specifically the n C Double A. What does the notion of for and it feels more and more likely that we will not have certainly the a measure of college sports and college football and everything

else that we're used to uh come this fall. What are the implications of that for the business of sports and for the business of the n C Double A. And this model that you and others have essentially said is speaking of fundamentally broken, fundamentally broken, right, Um, I don't think there's going to be college football this year. Um Uh. The athletic directors, you know, they got on

the phone with Pence a couple of weeks ago. He wanted to talk to them, and they basically said, look, if we don't have students on campus, we're not going to have football, period, end of story, no matter, but you want may want it. The the financial implications of that are huge. Football is by far the uh you know, it's a two or three billion dollar enterprise, and then basketball is a billion dollar enterprise for the nayah, that's

where they get most of their money. And if you can't televise college football, um, it's gonna be deatist aiding to the to the world of college football. And uh, I I think it's just I think it could wind up meaning that there's a ratcheting, huge ratcheting back of what football is, what it means, what it will do for the society. I I think it will be much much harder for coaches just to um justify a million dollars a year and sorry, and it's gonna also mean

and this is the first tragic part. Nobody's going to drop their football team. But they're already starting to drop. You know, some some tennis teams, lacrosse teams, um universities have petitioned the n c a A to be able to go below fourteen sports, which is the n c

A a minimum. And I think you're gonna come out of this with a lot of a lot of schools having five or six sports only, which will be pretty devastating, you know, because the real student athletes, the one to play lacrosse, the ones who are never gonna be pro and anything, they're the ones who are gonna get shafted. Can I get word on the radio? Yeah, you just did. It's done. It's out there in the Yeah. I do wonder. Yeah, just that whole the whole um higher education world. What's

going to happen? I just had a story too about you know, college is getting ready for students to ask for more financial aid because their parents are going to be out of work. I mean, it's just totally upended, right yeah. Yeah, And and the students, students are already upset because the universities won't have refunds even though even though they're stuck with online classes, they've given refunds for

room and board, but not for tuition. And there's a big you know, look, if you're a senior, I mean, and you're you've gotten in some place next year, wouldn't you be aren't you gonna want to take up a gap year just because you're just going to be the first. Yes, totally, totally finances. I think the finances of college education could finally implode um and and and many would say that that time has come. All right, Jonah Sarah, you're the

best Bloomberg Opinion calumnists. Noted author calumness I do I do to host at the shrink next door? You really should check that out. It's going to be a movie soon. Will Ferrell, Paul Road, come on, it's gonna who's gonna miss that? This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. You know, when we were talking earlier to Joe No Sarah, we talked about the n C Double A and obviously sports are a part of the college experience, but only a part um, even though for many of us it's the most important part. But we won't get into that. But colleges, it's been front of mind what colleges and universities are going to do and what they're doing even in the meantime when it comes to a Let's get into that and much

more with Janet Lawrence. She follows all things education for us We love catching up with her. Got to start with Harvard, Janet, what a week for them? Huh, yes, what a week? Well, and if you look at the formula they the Education Department came up with formula sent percent of it was based on you know that the Bravo income students. The other share was based on the total number is one of the largest universities. And that's

what they were. That's what they were allotted. And as you saw, the President criticized them, and they decided yesterday UM to say they're not going to accept the money. And all of their wealthy peers has done the same, Um, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, They've all said the same thing, that they're not going to take the money. Which I gotta say, you know, we talked about this, Jason, I talked about this on air and I said, well, you know this is they

didn't do anything wrong. This is the government program allowsing this money. And man, people on Twitter came back and said, you know, don't give Harvard a pass by saying the government decided to send them the money, they need to return it. I mean, it's considering that it's Harvard and they actually didn't They actually didn't receive it. They they were told this would be their allocation. Okay, but they could have they couldn't. Yes, absolutely, the money was effectively

on the way. So what does it tell us, I guess, Janet more broadly about what schools more broadly need, beyond the Harvards, beyond the I v S and the Stanfords of the world, because this is I think it's fair to say, a time of crisis in higher education on many fronts. Yes, absolutely, And we don't know who's showing up in the fall. We don't know if the freshman classes are going to be anywhere near where they need to be to get the schools enough revenue to operate.

We don't know if the sophomore class is going to be much smaller. We do know that the school the students are going to be a lot meatier. So whatever financially budgets they had previously, uh, it's going to be very likely a lot bigger, and the schools will try to accommodate that. But with fewer students, um they cancel with a lot of their summer programs that give them a really nice cushion of revenue they get every year, and that money is just gone because they can't have

kids on campus. And they made you know, there was a significant revenue generator having you know, thousands of high school students coming to your campuses and selling the dorms, having weddings, having band camps, hosting high school graduations, you

name it. That money's all gone now. Well, and I guess, Janet, one of the things I keep coming back to is this notion that most people would agree, especially people who have to write the checks to send their kids to college and the kids themselves going to college who have some financial stake in the game, that college is extraordinarily expensive.

I don't think anybody would disagree with that. And yet on the other side, you have a lot of colleges and universities essentially saying, without the revenue that we are counting on, just as you very well described, we will

go broke. What's the disconnect there and how does it change? Well? Uh, parents are paying a lot of money for intimate experiences with professors, small seminars, interactions with kids, you know, leadership in club and if they're not getting that, why why would they pay seventy thousand dollars or whatever they're paying? And Uh, you know, I think you're gonna see a lot of kids not want to go in the fall, and uh justified be so uh why would anyone want

to start college online when they're paying the full price? Um? So the question is we we don't know what's going to happen, and the traditional date of acceptances may first. A lot of colleges have moved back to Juniverse and even July one, so we won't get a better sense for quite a bit. But we do know that that revenue that's expected to come in is likely not going to be I have to say, and it was something

jonas Sarah mentioned, but I really thought about this. I have a niece who is supposed to start college in the fall. Um. But this whole idea of a gap year, like, why wouldn't you? And I know that's a hard thing to consider, But if you know it's going to be kind of a weird year and you just don't know what it's going to be like, certainly in the fall, and who knows what it means, you know, carrying over into the new year. You know, I do wonder if

that will pick up some momentum. Janet, Well, it doesn't necessarily have to be a formal gap year program. You could you could try to get a job, or you could follow here, or you could spend time with your grandparents and and differ for a year. And you know, you're not really losing anything. So I wouldn't be surprised

if we see a lot of kids make that decision. Yeah, it's interesting, and we know you're going to continue to follow this story, Janet, because I feel like the fallout to some extent is just beginning, you know, especially when

you think about them. And I've been talking to some folks who work at smaller colleges and universities and they're just saying that, you know that this is an existential crisis in many ways, all Right, Janet, Lauren always loved catching up with her following all things education, higher education, endowments, and you know, starting with the Harvard story this week, which obviously caught a lot of headlines and Carol, as

you say, just blew up on Twitter. You know, it was like made for social media sort of moments, obviously propelled by the President in his daily press conference, and that was when it really caught fire. But you know, Harvard is a sort of almost like third rail word in some cases right something. You know, a university system that's got incredibly deep pockets and alumni who will make sure that the money continues flowing. Uh So it's kind

of interesting. I was thinking about how we talked with Mike that there's not great models for the economy right now because we've never seen these kind of statistics. And I felt, even for universities, the financial crisis isn't the same even though they saw cutbacks. This is just a whole different ball game, it is. Uh. There was a funny story about how the most off word used by CEOs these days, unprecedented, makes sense. Use unprecedented journal now.

But you let me drive. Oh no, enough home, honey, please, I'll do the right drivel let me. I want to drive, Just drive by the question trying. This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll try us down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just got about ten minutes left to in today's trading session. We've been bouncing around right now. We're just off our loads of the session, still a little bit higher on those major equity averages, but definitely

way off our highs of the session. Let's get into it with Jack McIntyre. He's Global fixed income portfolio manager a Brandywine Global Investment Management. He joins us on the phone from Philadelphia, Jack, Nice to have you here. UM, talk to us a little bit about your world and investing right now. So all right, think global, you know that opens invest anywhere in the world. You know, we UM,

we've got a kind of a barbelled portfolio. So one of the things that we've been doing, the biggest change is we've been increasing our investment great corporate bond exposure. And the reason being is that you know, we're not just we you know, we're not fighting the FED. We're joining the FED. You know, we we're taking what they're giving us. UM. You know, we're doing some very high quality names. But you know, we've raised some dollars UM, but we still have some Miam exposure. And and that's

been this the part of the portfolio that certainly is underperformed. UM. I think from evaluation standpoint, it's it's compelling, but again there's a lot of uncertainty coming out of this UM, you know, and that's probably what the markets are kind of wrestling with now. It's not necessarily that's the flattening of the infashion curst. But what's the world's gonna look like coming out of this? And this is where we kind of all have to sort of guests a little

bit how we think it's going to play out. Well, Jack, that's a that's a really interesting point because I mean this is a to go back to what you said, this is a global pandemic and has played out very unevenly around the world, and I think there's a lot of discussion out there as to what this actually looks like when maybe it hits in a more meaningful way,

especially in some of those emerging markets. We had a guest on I believe it was earlier this week, you know, talking about how they're very very few cases in Africa, for instance, right now. Maybe that will remain, but you know, we've seen a huge surge, I believe in in India. So what does it take and how do you do the work to to kind of synthesize the medical side and the investment side. So you're not it's a great question, and you know, to be honest, I mean there's no

set answer. You know. What we have to do is kind of go back and look at you know, everything from you know, the demographics. Uh and yeah, you know obviously not obviously, but a lot of countries have younger uh parts of the population. Well, and it looks like they're better position to come out of this. You know, some countries they've kind of gone through their versions of pandemics. Maybe their immune systems are earned better shape. But you

don't know. I mean, it's and we obviously know, you know, they don't have the fiscal resources to do what we're doing in the developed world. We know the healthcare systems are under investing all that kind of stuff. Um, you know, I kind of use that because, hey, the market knows that, you know, and and if the market knows that, isn't

that arty sort of discounting in price. I mean, I get to hear anybody say, you know, come out being very positive on the EPP, And I'm not saying I don't want the listeners to go out and pile into em because that there is risk doing that. It's part

of our portfolio, it's not an entire portfolio. I think if the way we're thinking about investing in this world is that, hey, if I'm gonna put something that's gonna do well in a risk on environment, well I need to add something that's gonna do well in a risk

of environment, because nobody's got the kind of conviction. I would just kind of bring out the point that, you know, we do maybe have some type of model, you know, looking at the China, I mean, you know, maybe they weren't transparent, uh in the beginning, but they're coming out of this and I think it's a framework that might work in the US. Is that as they bring their comedy back online, people are going back to work, but they're slower to go into the leisure parts of their

and their daily activity. So I think that's going to be the model that we're going to follow in the US. So what kind of you know, so you're playing into sovereign dett right around the world, and I do wonder we do know global central banks, Man, they'll do what they need to to make sure they prop up their economies right now, right so it's coming from all of the central bankers are the majority of them around the globe. What are the bets you want to make? What are

the bets that you feel most confident? Um, because I look at your portfolio, which you guys have actually done pretty pretty well in the last UM one year or so, I think up nine percent, putting you in the percentile. But it's not been an easy market, you know, longer term um for you. So what's what's the bets that you feel that you can make with confidence right now? So, yeah, you're right, and it's been it's been a rough march

for us. I mean, we were position for the things that kind of played out in the fourth quarter, and the world quickly changed that way changed, uh, very very quickly. So I do think that the premise is interesting because I think you define it very clearly. And so we're in a war. Obviously, things around the virus, and maybe the virus isn't gonna get worse. But then we have the policymakers, the fiscal policy makers, the monetary policymakers. They've

taken this montra. We're gonna do whatever it takes. So this is dragging modeled in twelve. They've all adopted it, so they're gonna get tested. So this is why we're going to continue to see different amounts of fiscal stimulus, different monetary policy. So you know that's going to create some stability, and then ultimately you know we're gonna have to see some progress on the medical front, so you know, I'm not sure. To be honest, it's a high conviction

type world. Right now we are positioned. But what we're also doing is it extending our time horizon because there isn't clarity what's going to happen a month, a quarter

from now. But you know if a year from now, two years, if you have that ability to have that sort of time frame, I can come up with a more constructive sort of view because I think this stimulus could actually hit at a time that maybe we're starting to see, uh, some improvement you know around the buyers, around the uptick in economic activity, and I could set a decent backdrop for risk assets. But again that's getting

the timing rights to the hard part. Big question. We only have about thirty seconds for you to answer it, Jack, But oil, I mean that obviously has had partially to do with the pandemic, but largely outside of it. How does that figure into your thesis here? So you're right, I think it's mostly I say eighty percent driven by demand side, driven by you know that the pandemic, there's a supply issue, has a leverage the hedge fund guys

that uh, the c K commoding trading advisors. They're still really long oil contracts, so you know, they're they can't take this much pain, so they're undwinding these things. So yeah, it's um, it's just reflective of a week demand when you let the flow down a global growth. All right, we're gonna leave it there. Thank you so much, Jack McIntyre, he is the I want to make sure I get

your tile to write. Global Fixing Income portfolio manager for Brandywine Global Investment Management, joining us on the phone from Philadelphia. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show every weekday at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio