The Work-From-Home Boom Is Here to Stay - podcast episode cover

The Work-From-Home Boom Is Here to Stay

Dec 17, 202035 min
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Episode description

Dr. Keri Althoff, Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, provides an update on the coronavirus and the FDA meeting to discuss vaccine approval. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Finance Reporter Noah Buhayar talk about the story “The Work-From-Home Boom Is Here to Stay. Get Ready for Pay Cuts.” Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone shares his insight on Bitcoin soaring above $23,000 as more Wall Street firms pile in. And we Drive to the Close with Alan Lancz, Research Director at LanczGlobal.com.

Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Doni Holloway.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com.

If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. A lot going on, as we know, as there is. It feels like almost every day when it comes to of course, COVID nineteen UM and we are waiting maybe some emergency authorization when it comes to Maderna's vaccine, so

we're following that. This is on a day when global virus cases past seventy four point three million, deaths top one point six million, and we're just seeing these numbers continue to go higher. I should say that the US hit a record three thousand eighty five deaths yesterday. Let's check in with carry alt Off. She is Associate Professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University Boomberg School of Public Health.

She's with us on the phone from Baltimore, the Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. UM. Carrie, it's good to have you here with Tim and myself. UM. I always feel like on every day, I'm not quite sure where to start. What is you think first and foremost when it comes to COVID in the vaccine today that you think our listeners need to be aware of. I think everyone needs to know that these hearings are going well.

The scientific rigor which the investigators and the expert that have been brought in from lots of different places, the rigor with which they're looking at this data is really important. They are asking questions which some of which there are answers for right now, some of which there are not yet answers for, and so there are ideas about how

to continue these trials. It's really important to figure that piece out because right now, thankfully, so many people want this vaccine and we need to keep pushing for that because as these vaccines become available, of course, they only

work if people actually choose vaccination Kerry. We learned also in recent days about sort of the first here in the US response that that wasn't so great to a vaccine, the first allergic response, and this was a healthcare worker in Alaska who didn't have a history of allergic reactions, but this person was held overnight in the hospital and it got a lot of coverage. Is this something that should how how should people who want this vaccine think

about news like this? So I would say this, we have to remember that reactions to vaccines, even severe allergic reactions, do happen to a number of vaccines. It is something that's expected, and that's why when you get a vaccine, you're typically doing it in a healthcare setting where those individuals who are administering the vaccine are also trained in how to essentially give you an eppie shot if you

need it for anaphalactus or other types of allergic reaction. So, first of all, we know that allergic reaction is something that happens. Of course, when ever there's a new product, we we scrutinize every single one of these events. We

want to know when it happened, how it happened. We want to know all of the information about it, but I think we also have to put it in the context of we know that these types of reactions happen to vaccines and other medical products, and we also know that there are a lot of people in these trials

who have been receiving these vaccines. It's something we will definitely be keeping our eye out, but right now, there's no reason to believe that the anflexus rate after a vaccination is substantially higher with this vaccine than what would be accepted. And Carrie helped me out because this is something we've asked a lot of UM. You know, your colleagues at Johns Hopkins and other members of the medical community.

Is that my understanding is that if there is a severe reaction to a vaccine, that you know it within the first month. But again, we're working with new technology, new science. UM Is that accurate though? So typically, you know, in order to link the actual reactions back to the vaccine, there's there's a long process that goes on where you really scrutinize everything. Of course, if it happens pretty quickly

after the vaccination, and some people say one month. UM. In some of the Maderna data that was presented Um, they were I'm sorry, it was a fiser data that was presented that the reaction happened quite a few months later, and so, you know, actually tying these reactions to the vaccine itself. Sometimes people do put on a timeline like one month, but really it comes down to the data

that are uncovered when that reaction is investigated. Just from the standpoint of of of somebody with your background, an epidemiologist who studies AIDS and it does AIDS research and HIV research, what do you make of the development of the vaccines that we're seeing right now. How big of

a deal is this? It is absolutely scientifically historic. It is hours and hours and hours of scientists, you know, pouring your hearts and souls into trying to figure out how to get this pandemic stopped with one of the most important biomedical tools we've will have against coronavirus, which is vaccination. We cannot say that it is the prominent

tool yet in our toolbox. Of course, we only have one sectine that's eu AID hopefully will have to probably by monday, and um, we're we're moving forward, but we still have to wear masks, we still have to social distance, we still have to take all of this very very seriously. Even um this week there was an interesting analysis looking at excess deaths in person forty four. I mean, these are these are people that we've been saying, oh, you know that they're not at the greatest risk of death.

And although that might be true, losing someone in that age group, someone who is a young mother or a father, someone who is someone's brother or sister, a person who is a productive member of our society, losing them to COVID is really a tragedy, as are all the death due to COVID, but this excess death in this age group is really it's shocking, it's compelling, and it just reminds us that although these vaccines are absolutely scientific history, it is also a time where we have to continue

to rely on all the layers in all the tools in our toolbox to keep each other safe. So, Carrie, how do you see kind of the next few months playing out for our world here in the United States

in terms of virus numbers and also vaccine rollout. So it's important to note that right now, the best tools we have to reduce the number of new cases and to reduce the number of deaths are the tools that we've had since the beginning, really, which is wearing your mask, being home unless you absolutely have to, and um, making sure that you're you're keeping space from each other when when you're in public or in any enclosed environment in particular,

but even outside. So essentially, what we're trying to do is just prevent that virus from transmitting from one person to another, right, don't give it a host, so don't get too close. It's really the name of the game. And we need to put these practices in place and continue with these practices until we do have more widely

distributed vaccine. With the Maderna news today, you know, we hopefully will have a number of vaccines rolling out over the course of the next couple of months, which not only increases the numbers, but also interestingly it could perhaps give people some options. Right, so if for example, of vaccine works better in older adults versus younger adults. UM. One thing I just wanted to correct from earlier was that the case that I referenced of an individual developing

inflexis more than two months after being vaccinated. This actually was prompted. It came from m Jacqueline Miller, the vice president for Infectious Diseases Development at Maderna during FDA hearings today. It was prompted by a question from Mark Sawyer, who's the professor of clinical pediatrics at the University of California, San Diego, and he said, you know, Maderna has done a number of Phase one into clinical trials of m R and A vaccines for really eight other pathogens over

the course of the last few years. And so he said, hey, have you gone back into that data and looked to see if those earlier trials if there were reports of a flaccus among patients. And that's when Jackline Miller said, well, there was this one report and a woman with a sty allergy and she developed this more than two months

after being vaccinated. And so it does bring up this question of Okay, maybe this this um triggering of anifyl acxis it might be different across different vaccines, and we shouldn't just take what is happening in one and apply it to a different vaccine. And that's what Maderna's chief medical officer also noted that, you know, we we have to watch each of these vaccines carefully and so we know who should be using witch vaccines, So no blanket

assumptions really along the way. I would be really hesitant right now to do a lot of one getting assumptions. These these are big trials. We will be following these um wonderful volunteers well into the future, and so we'll let the data show us what it needs to show us. But given that the supply of this is so constrained and there are so few vaccines available right now, when will people actually have the option to take one vaccine

over another if they do have concerns about anaphylaxics. Well, I think for a lot of people that the choice and vaccines of course has to come after at least more than one receiving e u A, which hopefully will come very soon. But then it will be this rollout process coupled with the tearing process. Right So who is the top priority right now? It's the healthcare workers and the individual to a learning living in long term care facilities.

And so once we get those populations vaccinated, um hopefully we will have higher production of at least two vaccines. And so when this vaccine starts to roll out to the more generalized population, there may be some more options. Yeah, really interesting. Hey, just real quickly, just got about thirty seconds. What are your hopes, uh for the incoming Biden administration

come to Nuary. Um. I hope they stick to the science and they let the science lead the way, and they are putting together people and teams that are true, um, followers of the science. Um. They are empathetic, compassionate people. And I think that is the unstoppable combination to have empathy and can move forward with the science so that this virus gets stopped and we get back to living our lives in a healthy way. Yeah. I think that's a really good message in terms of really sticking to

the science because it says so much. UM, Carrie, thank you so much. Dr carry alt Off, Associate Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health with US from Baltimore. The Bloomberg School of Public Health supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. But it is so interesting to him, like every time, you know, everybody goes back to and it makes sense masks, social distancing, Like there's just those basic

things that still work. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, the cover of Bloomberg Business Week this week is the work from Home boom. It is here to stay and as a result, get ready for some changes, including everyone some pay cuts. It's really all about the urban exodus and the implications because it has the potential to impact so much in our

world and economy. That story by Bloomberg News Finance reporter no Boo Hire, who joins us on the phone from Seattle, along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber on the access line in Brooklyn, and Joel kick it off for us. I mean, I do feel like this working from home thing has massive implications, and no one really lays it

out in the story. Yeah, that's right. I mean we've been watching this trend um just evolved throughout the pandemic, and and it started with people, you know, basically the urban exodus, people leaving cities and going to the suburbs or or the country. And then instead of renting some of those places, people started buying and and then you know, the employers started to catch up with with it eventually,

and that's really kind of the new element. And I think the one that that really distinguishes Noah's story has been. You know, the shift was at first it was just the real estate implications, but now it's about the pay implications. And Noah's reporting actually centers on a store, on a company, red Fin, the real estate company, and they actually almost become the vehicle for the story. So Noah tells us about this trend and what we've learned through red Fin. Yeah, well,

I think you really you really captured it. I mean, this is uh, this is a trend in HR policy right now. We've we've we've had this massive experiment in working from home and I think a lot of companies have found that it works for people. Um, it's not perfect. There are for sure some drawbacks. UM, but as as we've gone through the months, companies, I think, responding to what they're hearing from their workforces, have realized that they can allow for a much greater UH amount of remote

work um when the pandemic is finally over. And that's forced them to really reckon with UH policies and how you how you actually make this work in a way that's that's fairer and reasonable for your business. And um, really it's just opened up a giant can of worms because uh, you know, the cost of labor and the cost of living just vary so radically across the US that, um, you could create situations where, you know, if someone moved from the Bay Area to Phoenix or Atlanta, they um,

and they carried their salary with them. They just um, you create a situation where, um, you were paying way above market essentially. Okay, So the Redfin thing that's so interesting though, is that once people sort of moved out, uh, and the company had to grapple with us, and they were actually proactive I think and having a plan basically um. And they basically realized that in order to implement this, they needed to have some version of like a localized

pay policy. Right, So, so tell us about how they actually went about implementing that. Yeah, so on some levels, like companies have been doing this for years, right, it's just um uh like they they've thought about, well, if we open a new office in a new city, what do we pay people that What's interesting is that that red Fin and I think a lot of other companies you know, had to do this on a mass scale. So what red Fin did is they got a bunch of data on cost of labor and cost of living.

UM their their real estate company. They're in the home brokerage business, so they're they're pretty attuned to this stuff.

And I have a lot of in house data, but they got external data as well UM to try and craft the policy of what's fair and and and you know, the data informed their decisions, but there were a lot of judgment calls at the end of the day, and you know, they're still tweaking and trying to make sure UM, you know, their policy works for their people and that they can continue to recruit and retain the best people because at the end of the day, that's that's really

what this is about for companies is you know, there's even with unemployment where it is today, there for certain kinds of jobs, they're still an insatiable appetite UM in demand for people and UM you know, as companies compete for talent, they want to make sure they're paying the right amount in the markets where those people want to be. No, there's there's something you explore in the piece, the economic

applications of this. The idea that people are leaving higher cost areas moving to areas than aren't is expensive and and with that, of course, if they're leaving a city or a state, with them goes tax base, with them, goes spending in that local economy. What are the long term implications of this migration. Well, I don't think we know, yeah,

is the short and short non answer. But um, it's certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be helpful for high cost places like New York and San Francisco as they you know, as the whole country tries to uh dig itself out of of of the economic implications of the pandemic. I mean, it's not helpful when you have uh high earners leave your city. But at the same by, you know, at the same time, like, we just don't know that at this point how extensive this is going

to be. And and there are some real benefits to um living in being near where the action is, where there are other people in your industry, and um, you know that could be a draw for people to come back to some of these high cost places. Well that this is the thing we don't know right no yet, whether or not this kind of urban boom, you know, and away from that urban boom, whether or not that's

going to stick. Because if you talk to a Jamie Diamond, if you talk to the heads of a bunch of financial companies, if you talk to the head of Netflix, as you put in your story, they're not so on board and think that this working from home thing is going to stick. Yeah, I mean, I think what we're seeing a lot of companies do. I mean Google was a recent one. They're gonna They're gonna go towards a more hybrid model where people would come back in like

three days a week. That doesn't necessarily free people up to leave the high cost city, but it may encourage them to move to a suburb where they might not have done that before if they were commuting in five days a week. So there's there's both moves across the country, but there are moves within metros which have real implications for housing costs. I mean we've seen this all year that in Redfin has seen this in their business. I

mean suburban houses. I mean people want single family homes with a yard because of the pandemic, but they're also looking forward to what life might be like when office is reopened. And maybe it's not so bad if you have to do that longer commute because you're only going into three days a week. So no, you know, you've got really good access at redfin And I'm I'm gonna ask you to extrapolate here how willing were employees to take this pay cut? I mean, it's obviously it's coming

from HR. You can keep the job, but you can have a pay cut. I think that is to me, the biggest question here is like if employees are actually willing to do this, But that willingness also depends on just probably how big the pay cut is. Right, So so talk to me about the willingness to participate. Yeah, I mean, look, the employees I spoke with who were who were making these moves, I think ultimately felt like

the numbers were fair. Um. And and that's because you know, when you moved to some of these places where your pay is going to be lower, your cost of living goes down, usually by even more. And um. Glenn Colman, the CEO of Redman, argued to me, and I think

it was pretty persuasive on this point. But I think it's reasonable to expect that as more employers UH offer remote work possibilities, we're going to see wages rise in some of these places where the cost of labor is lower, so you know, wages in Texas are going up, and you might also see housing costs in places like Austin golf as well. But but to think that these things is not right. It's a great story. We're gonna talk a bit more about the migration to textas a little

bit later on No Boo Higher until Webber. Thank you so much. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Cairol Masser on Bloomberg Radio BIS Bloomberg Business Week on this Thursday, Carol Master along with Bloomberg Quicktake anchor Tim Stenovic and top story at this hour. And I guess Tim, I think it's gonna be safe to say it's been a tough story this weekend. It's going to end up being one of the top stories of this year. I think

that's fair. Right, we're talking bitcoin, right, We're talking bitcoin, and we saw cryptocurrency exposed docs soaring today as well. We talked about that a little bit earlier, Bitcoin topping twenty three thousand dollars per token having only surpassed the twenty tho dollar bilestone for the first time. That was yesterday. Uh so it is really just moving up as bitcoin

surges to record high. Scott minored our audience knows and well, chief investment officer over at guggen Him Investments, believes there was largest cryptocurrencies fair value still has a long way to go. He shared this with our colleagues over on Bloomberg TV. We made the decision to start allocating towards bitcoin when bitcoin with a ten thousand UM it's it's a little more challenging with the current price closer to

twenty thousand. But having said that, our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about four hundred thousand dollars, four hundred thousand dollars, four hundred thousand dollars. My understanding of Scarlet Food over a Bloomberg TV when she heard that was like what she was. We played this on on Quick Take this morning because it's just the reaction is is really one of you know, whoa four hundred thousand dollars? This is something that you know is that

twenty dollars now? And that's got a lot of people scratching their heads exactly. So let's get into what we need to know about the rise in bitcoin. Joining us as Bloomberg intellige commodity strategist Mike McGlone. He's on the phone from Connecticut, Mikes, so good to have you here with us. So, first of all, um, what's behind the rise? Is it just a basic supply and demand or what's going on here? Hi, Hi Carrol. That's a lot of it.

Bottom line basic supplying demand is this year we cut supply by a half, and the last time we did that was two thousand sixteen and two thousand seventeen. Bitcoin increased from a thousand and twenty thousand, So I think we just broke above that twenty threshold. So what was resistance is now probably going to be key support for next year. And then you're opened. The man is really picking up from institutions. It's become a bit of institutional fomo.

And the factor is the macro. Look at debt to GDP, q E, M M T all that it's very positive for bitcoin. I think what we're seeing also is there's a migration from what a lot of assets that used to be more focused on gold going to the new digital version. Why is why is it you said that what's going on is good for bitcoin? Is it just seen as a now new safe haven or what? Yeah, Well, it's it's a new safe haven for a future that's

becoming more digitalized. Let's think of what's really happened this world. People don't want to really touch paper money, so everything is going digital. We don't really want to play with money. And then it's also that store of value, so it's got the macroeconomic factors. So I looked at like to say it's it's not really a store of value yet

because it's too young, but it's getting there. So based on my projections, the valtili of bitcoin, which is about two and a half times that of gold on an annualized basis, will probably match the same boutil the gold in about four years, so basically by the time we get to the next election and next time, that supply will be cut in half. Wow. So apart from fomo, what our institutional investors seeing as the purpose for bitcoin

and other cryptocurrencies when they're building portfolios. It's a store of value that has not really found its price ship it's in that price discovery stage. So it's kind of a unique space and it's kind of scary to me. It's like it's become almost tu bos. But I don't see the bearer's case unless it's something I can't predict, like in the technology some kind of failure or some kind of hack, or maybe some kind of banning. But other than that that this supplying demand and just looking

forward to this future going digital. It's a way to transport them and really hold on to wealth. But on the thumb driver in your head or on your phone in the past, you know, gold is a little clunky, and then you have this world of what's the what are the the competition of competitions of stock market and

all time high and negative or zero bond yields. So it sounds like you're saying there's room for this to go higher, not necessarily too much concern about it going lower, at least long term, because I have friends, you know, when when this happens, I always get friends texting me, Hey, should I buy bitcoin? Is it too late to buy bitcoin? Obviously I'm not giving financial advice. You're not giving financial advice.

But how would you answer that question? Well, I like to say, you have to put yourself in the future. If it fails, and everybody's gonna forget about it, doesn't care if it succeeds. The question for Grandpa, why didn't you buy bitcoin when it was only so or Grandma. And I think what Scott Miner's point about four thousand is pretty I ThReD it's just a question of time because that's about gets too where it's similar on the same scale in a market cat basis versus gold. But

for this year, I'm a little more conservative. I'm looking at fifty thousand is the key next resistance because that would put the market tamp around um about a trillion versus four hundred or so million. Now, but listen, Mike, you remember back in seventeen when it hit, was it around above eighteen thousand, and then it dropped down in early twenty nineteen down to about thirty eight? Yeah, well yeah,

that was another entry point, right. But I mean we have seen you know, tremendous, a tremendous run up and another drop in this before. Is there something different about the momentum right now? That's the right question to ask, Caroline, sir. Is true, it did have a massive draw down, just like Amazon drop in the early two thousand's, and the big difference this time is that was more speculative excess

rally for really tech geeks. Now it's the mainstream getting in there's futures, there's m central banks potentially, but there's corporate treasuries, billionaires and even insurance companies who are just looking to buy dips below and the big differences. Now, if you look at volatility on bitcoin, it's lowest ever versus the stock market and versus gold. So it has major fundamental tactical underpinions like I look at it like okay, what can go wrong here? And I just try to

figure it out. Right now, more of the same means price it should go higher. What about the emergence of other cryptocurrencies and we saw that a few years ago when bitcoin got really popular. Doesn't that threaten Bitcoin's rise him That's a key point, and it's really survivor bias. Last year there was about four thousand tradeable cryptocurrencies. Now there's about eight thousand based on coin market sap dot com.

But it's the survivor bias that matters. So the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index traps is tracks about ten of those. So it's the survivors. The winners will win and do well. But the thing is they don't have the adoption, the oth and the robustness, and basically they're just not adopted like bitcoin. They might be better, but they're not the best store of value. The way I like to describe bitcoin, it's basically a collectible. There's only gonna be twenty one

million over ever created. There's eighteen point five that I have already been created, and it's the one that's been adopted the market, the world has already said, okay, this is the one versus like gold is the one, and there's you know, a bunch of other commodities, and there's a bunch of other precious medals. So really quickly fifteen seconds. Is it a collectible or is it a currency? I think it's more of a collectible. And left that is really mild. Um. You were the perfect voice. Thank you

so much. Um, really really appreciate it, because I think we were all just we're kind of watching it and understanding it, right, Tim, Yeah, we are. And I just sent my team a note saying we gotta get Mike on quick take talking bit quick great Blueberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike mcclogne bro morow a journal now, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, oh please, I'll do the d I want to drive, just drive baby the question try this is the drive to the globe.

Thanks Radio, it is time for the drive to the clothes and joining us this Thursday. Back with us as Alan Lance, he has research director at Lance Global dot com and president of allenby Lance and Associates. He is with us once again on the phone from Toledo, Ohio. Allen, nice to have you back with us with Tim and myself. Um, how are you. What's Ohio like right now? I'm doing well. We got an interest snow compared to your twelve or thirteen,

I guess, so, yeah, well we'll take that. But everything's going well here in Hohow. All right, Um, what's the virus with you guys right now? Well, we basically have been more open than our neighboring state of Michigan, but we do have a ten pm curfew. Uh so businesses are closed and restaurants they are still open to uh anywhere from fifty percent capacity um and so far everything stayed open as opposed to Michigan, which has locked down

another a few weeks. So yeah, well, we are certainly not seeing these concerns play out in the stock market on pace to be a record day, as we heard from from Charlie earlier. Um, Alan, I want to get your thoughts on valuations right now, because our producers tell us that, you know, one thing that you see right now is that this is a different than two thousand seven, despite the fact that we see stocks at highs and we see real estate at highs right now. To what's

your take, Yeah, we get that question. About two thousand and seven, we had warned that we couldn't really find anything in the international or domestic equity arena or real estate arena that that was of in bargain territory. And today I think it's different, Like I can see the comparisons because we're hitting new all time highs again. But you you know, we've had energy that's been down tremendously.

This year has actually been pretty predictable. We were we were, even though it's been a strange year and and the

volatility has been excessive. We were taking property under January early February, the market went up another three weeks and then um, obviously we had the John Templeton you know by when there's blood on the street type of march where you know there are some incredible bargains and then you know, the markets recovered h as almost like a textbook in textbook fashion, where where uh you saw the quality dividend companies moving up, you know, right after the

stay at home surged, and then uh now you know the fourth quarter, we've seen the cyclical small caps and internationals catching up, so the rallies broadening out, and and

you know, I think that's healthy. Uh Well, on two thousand seven, what we had is everything moving up from you know, utilities in China to write you know, every category in the US, and and and then we really couldn't find any bargains that we're still finding bargains here, all right, don't judge me, don't hate me, But Alan, I felt like this was a year where you could time the market because I thought about it early this

year too. It's like we just ran up so quickly before kind of the COVID fallout, and I'm like, god, you know, if I've kind of just dropped out in February, it would have been a pretty decent year. And then of course when the market fell off, you knew that there was going to be History has taught us that the government's going to help us out. The Fed's going to help us out. You know, it was almost, as

you say, kind of textbook predictable. And I do feel like we're getting to a market environment where I know it goes against everything I've ever learned about timing the market. But but we know that when the market drops off, the the you know, programmed trading kicks in and then the market goes up again, and then when it gets too lofty, it sells off a little bit and then you know, I mean, I just feel like we're getting into that kind of a rhythm. Yeah, And it's a

supply and demand car. Also, you're totally spot on where now you're seeing the I p o s. But again, unlike these I p o s are still high quality, so I think, you know, you're you're gonna get that supply fill you know, filling up the demand, and then it's gonna be a situation where less and less quality I pos will come out in one and that's the time again where you know you hate to do it, but you know you've got a time a little bit and and take some money off the table. You know.

The The other thing that that we like is we're seeing takeovers. You know, we talk summer about Alexi. You know, Alexey and pharmaceuticals, and and that's got a you know, a nice premium takeover and and I wouldn't even sell it here. I think you could have you know, another bid coming in or I don't mind owning the Astra Zeneca, you know, because that stock is underperformed, so uh, you know we're in, you've got to takeover. Would you run

with it? Cash it out and and you don't wait for it to close now you can still you know, say that the stocks trading as historically multiples even being taken over. And part of that is, you know, there was a two product company, and with astra Zeneca, it's going to be you know, higher margins and and uh multiple expansion because it was discounted because you know, they didn't have the pipeline and they didn't have a broad

selection of pharmaceuticals. And and there are still other companies like that that I think offer opportunity to investors have ignored most of the year. So so in that respect, it is has been uh, you know, unexpected year from the uh you know, volatility standpoint, but really textbook and in design all the way through Alan are you getting lots of questions from clients about bitcoin right now. It's a story we've been talking about all day hitting a

new record. It's below twenty right now at seven hundred. But is that something that clients are showing interest in. Yeah, Bitcoin, I mean, you know, we saw that attractive, you know, into the sell off again because uh, you know, just even Amazon went down, you know, in the early days of of March and into the pandemic. Now you know, those are one of the areas and and some of these cult type stocks that you know, we would not

you know, we would not be chasing. So so when when we get a lot of inquiries from subscribers and members about you know, should we be buying Tesla, should we buy be buying Bitcoin, it's usually a little late in in in the game, and we don't really want

to partist. Scott Minard says bitcoin's going to four hundred thousand, So I'm just gonna tell you Alan, it's way early in the game according to him and some other especially when if you think about it, I I go back to you know, my economics, you know, um work is just like supply and demand, there's only going to be a limited number of bitcoins that by kind of its own essence just creates you know, an entity that's going

to go up. Yeah. The the problem is the same thing with blockchain is everybody has to participate, you know, with with the Internet and emails, you had that, Will you have that with bitcoin or will something else come out? So so bitcoin in itself, you know, if that ends up to be the you know, digital cryptocurrency, than than all that, uh, you know, hyperbole. You know, well we'll

come to fruition. But you know, are you willing to take that risk that you know, something else, you know won't superseded or thinking over so many times when you're an industry leader, Uh, you know, you don't uh end up you know, ten years from from that day be the one that that still is out on the forefront. And that's where investors have to realize the risk that they're taking. Just wish I bought it when it was like you know, you and fraction of a sense you

could have thrown like twenty bucks at it. You know, you've been hundred dollars at it and it just would have been. But we'd still be here doing this because we love it. Carol, that is actually very very true. Um, good stuff, good stuff. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio.

And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News mmmmm

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