The U.S. Still a Long Way From Normal

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We've got a lot of stuff going on. Europe continues at least parts of year, pushing back on that Astra Zeneca vaccine. You've got Italy, that country facing a new lockdown one year after the pandemic started, and then President by last night putting out the fourth of July is maybe a moment where we can kind of get quote unquote back to normal, as

long as you keep it in small groups. Yeah. I watched that last night to Carol, and one thing that really stuck out to me was the eligibility of people who were are able to get vaccines. Biden administration pushing for everyone every adult by May one, right, and I understand the prioritizing earlier on, and I think at this point people are like, it's so confusing. Can I go? Can I not? And just like kind of opening it up, let's get into it with one of our go to voices.

Really when we always get a true gut check. Dr Ian LUs Bader, Clinical Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgown. He is on the phone in New York City. How are you hey, They're doing very well. Happy Friday, guys. Thank you for all your efforts over the past year with you know, sticking with the story and encouraging people and putting out good, good information. So well likewise to

you as well. I really do mean it when I say when you come on, you know, we've thrown so much at you, and you just kind of you often ahead of the curve in terms of things that are going to be in the headlines next week and just really giving us again, just like you said to us, really smart information. So okay, So one year, first of all, take me back one year. I like, do you remember it like it was yesterday? I do remember it, and I think we uh we we talked about it. It

uh was really devastating. The hospitals were overloaded, and the stock market was crashing and stores were closing. Uh the city was shut down, and you know, you could hit a hit a golf full or shoe a cannon down Madison Avenue and or Lexington where Bloomberg studios are and not hit anyone or anything. There wasn't a car or truck on the road. There wasn't a person in the street. So I think we've come a long long way. I agree with the President Biden at Hope really does seem brighter,

and I agree. I think by July four a good majority of people will be vaccinated. Maybe we'll have those COVID passports, so people should feel free to you know, be going to restaurants if they've been vaccinated, and being in small groups. So I think we've made a lot of progress. A little concern about the variants. I think there is still a small chance of uh, of another wave, but I think we're making progress. I am just a little concerned because I still see in some patients some

vaccine hesitancy, which worries me. Talk a little bit about that. I mean, is there a pattern emerging that you're seeing, You know, I think it's very variable. A lot of the physicians have had it, and I think um to some degree, there may be some socioeconomic issues. I think there are some people who are afraid of the vaccine or afraid of side effects. And every time on the news we hear now a little bit about the astros Eneca vaccine and in Europe and here with you know,

some potential blood clots. But what I'd help patients for all of these vaccines take whatever is available. There's not one that's materially better than the other. J and J certainly convenient with one vaccine. But whenever you're vaccinating millions or hundreds of millions of people, there will always be reports about you know, death or in allergic reaction or

a blood clot. Very hard to tease that out, because when you're vaccinating a lot of people, someone along the way is going to have a complication that's unrelated to the vaccine. It's just happens to be a day or two or three after they got a vaccine. People die, people get clots, other things happen. So we do need to look into it. I mean, there may be something there, but overall, it seems the vaccines have been very safe, very effective. Uh, And I think we need to push

on ahead with it. What about, though, and Tim, what was the data you just were sharing with me about? Is it New York City positivity? So Mayor to Blasio tweeting this out earlier today. Six positivity rate for a seven day average. I mean, compared to January, that's pretty good, but compared to last fall and over the summer, that's not a good number. It's not a great number. Um And again, positivity doesn't that's positive tests doesn't necessarily mean

hospitals are overloaded. They're not. There's a very stable number. Also, it doesn't necessarily mean kids should not be going back to school. I think they should. And a lot of this is arbitrary. If it's three percent or five percent or six percent positivity, you know, we need to get kids back in school. We need to get all the teachers vaccinated. There really no no reason not to do that.

The restaurants are starting to open up. I would certainly say, you know, when you go flying these days, the planes are full, you don't know who's been vaccinated. Certainly, I think people who have been vaccinated UM should really be able to get priority for some of these things like restaurants. You know, if you show your card, you know, there should be very little hesitancy about going in and sitting down.

That that's my sense. But I agree the numbers are slightly um up a bit, but I don't necessarily think that's translating into hospitalizations. In other words, more people may be having it, and probably many of them are being treated, and let's talk about it's maybe in the next segment. Who was some of the IVY monoclonal antibodies which worked very well. Dr les Beata. We're monitoring the President expected to make comments at any moment. We might have to

tear away from this conversation. Having said that there's money in that massive COVID relief COVID stimulus package that includes money for states to deal with the costs of COVID UM, how do you think that might help some of the problems that we've seen in terms of the vaccine rollout. Well, I think you're a number of problems. One is certainly for a states that has spent a lot of money on hospitals, as we have here in the tri state area.

That will certainly be helpful. You always have to think about the back end of printing all that money, what the consequences are. That's a different story. But when it comes to COVID, we really have to encourage everyone to get vaccinated. I agree totally with taking away any restrictions. You know, anyone over eighteen really should have it. And why because the longer it takes to get to hurt immunity, the more likely you're going to have viral application and

resistant variants. So the idea is to try to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible, and that will really prevent these potentially resistant mutations from occurring. Dr Let's say go ahead. So we need to do that, you know, as soon as possible. Now we are seeing some patients who are getting COVID sometimes in between their first and second vaccine. They do have to be careful

and we have some very interesting new UH treatments. For example, if you have um COVID and you're in any one of the risk groups diabetes, high blood pressure, etcetera, we can give you an I V monoclonal antibody. You come into the hospital, you get one infusion takes twenty thirty minutes, very effective. That's made by Lily. We're working out some medications. Mark uh malneu previer is very effective at viral replications.

So we definitely have treatment options, but the best of course is to get those vaccines in and we are capacity to give vaccines really exceeds the availability, so that's the limiting supply at the time. I'm really glad you brought up treatment because that's exactly where I wanted to go with my My next question, how are you seen treatment change throughout the pandemic where we were a year ago?

And do we get to a point where, because we are going to be living with this, it's unlikely we're going to eradicate it that it becomes just in general treatable if somebody comes down with it. Well, absolutely, so we talked about it sort of the ideal medication like tamiflu also tamifere for the for influenza, or or some of the intranasal sprays. Now, Mark with Ridgeback Pharmaceuticals is working on a Phase two three on an oral anti

viral that seems to be very effective. Originally it was being looked at for flu, but it seems very effective for coronavirus, so that's exciting, and some preliminary studies with about a patients do show that it's highly effective. So I think we are close to an oral medication which should be revolution very still, get your flu shot, get your COVID shot, so that that's great. And we have an I V monoclonal antibody that I've sent a number

of patients for. They they they're symptomatic, they get a positive swab, they call I call uh you know NYU for example, And this is available in many medical centers. Uh. It's called ben lamb miview mab, which is great made by Lily and I V and monoclonal antibody cocktail and

patients often feel better much sooner and prevents hospitalizations. So we definitely have better options um as opposed to a year ago, as Carol talked about where people would be overwhelming the hospitals, and we were guessing at things like steroids and REMD svere and you know, a whole host of things. So I think we've made a lot of progress, which is encouraging. Yeah, I feel like we've talked about

all of those things. Hey, one thing going back to what the President said, and again we're monitoring for when he steps up to the podium at the White House and begins talking again. I just wonder the very ends. Uh. And you talked about a possible peak again. Could that throw off our returning to normalcy by summer in your view, I think that's the only thing that could derail a recovery, and it is a possibility, and I don't think we're

out of the woods yet. But again, I think getting everyone vaccinated because at this point the vaccines do seem to have some efficacy against the variants, So I would say, let's get as many people vaccinated as possible, as soon as possible. But if we don't, absolutely that could derail things with a flare of a resistant variant, that would really set us back and would be uh, both an

economic and I think psychologic shock. But so far the variants haven't shown to be resistant to the vaccines, right, exactly right. That's why I think it's important to to move ahead to reassure people. A bad vaccine hesitancy. People see in the news, the reports are from both on the Internet and elsewhere about potential complications, clots, etcetera. There's no data that any of these things are are significant

or serious. They have to be looked into, and I think people should stop looking for excuses not to go come on in, let's open it up to everyone. Uh. And that's really the only way we will be able to put this behind us and have a relatively normal summer, which I think we should at the rate we are going. How key is that Alaska already opening up eligibility to all adults. New York City expected to do so by

late April or early May. UM. How crucial is it that all states do that pretty quickly in order for us to really get and meet those targets by the President. I think it's key. I have so many people under age sixty five or sixty who are saying, when can I get it? I would love to get it, and unfortunately regulations say no. Uh. Some of them have medical issues, and then we're able to get them online at the Javit Center and other vaccination centers. But many are otherwise healthy,

but they won't be unless they get vaccinated. So I think we need to get those vaccines from the government. You're from manufacturing to the government to the states, and for the states that then distributed to those vaccine centers, so we can really get people in and out. And the more people that are vaccinated and do well, the less vaccine hesitancy, because then everyone knows people who have had a vaccine and did fine, and then they're less

afraid to go. Where are we now when it comes to vaccines and kids, Because if we do get to the point where everybody who's sixteen or eighteen and over can get the vaccine, that still leads a very large number of people in the US who are under that age, and we'll be able to get the vaccine. Great question. One of my patients asked me that question just earlier

today about their kid who was under eighteen. The reason that we went for the older age group was because that was the group that had the highest complications, the highest death rate older age and symptoms and conditions such as obesity, hypertension, cop D. Most of the kids below eighteen death rates and complications were very, very low, So the feeling was look in a worst case if they get that, you know, they should have minimal post COVID syndrome. Uh.

Most are not long haulers. Some have lost their smell, but most bounce back. Well, nevertheless, they are a reservoir of virus, So you're exactly right. Ultimately we should vaccinate everyone. The studies, the viral studies did not really look at that group, so we can't we can't really report on the safety data, but I think that group should be included, and we do need to to broaden out that. But certainly the highest risk groups are above eighteen. But you're

exactly right. Unless you eventually vaccinate kind of potential reservoirs, it's going to be harder to really eradicate UH, these quiet pools of the virus. So I agree, eventually it's going to have to be opened up to everyone, and I think that will be done probably sometime after the summer. I do wonder to any entrees um strategy and getting

ahead of COVID. It's not just thinking about your nation, but it's thinking about the world, right because there's no real clear borders when it comes to the virus UH, and major developed countries need to think about making sure that there are vaccines for UH, those emerging economies, those who maybe don't have such quick access to vaccines. You're exactly right that, yes, we definitely need to get our

country vaccinated, that will be protective. But unless the world gets immunized, you will have these pockets in isolated areas that good could potentially have that viral replication and mutations which could be resistant. So, yes, this, like smallpox, really has to be a worldwide effort. Uh, And I think we did it with smallpox. We should be able to do it with COVID, but it is taking a bit

of time. Nevertheless, you know, we've come become a tremendous distance in one year, really amazing, from no vaccine and very few treatments. Uh. We still have a long way to go, but I think we've made great progress. And you're right, it has to be a global effort. Hey, what does that mean for the development of vaccine in the future. We were able to do this so quickly, I say we as if I had any part to do with it. No, I had nothing to do with it.

The doctors, the scientists, the health care professionals, and I'd certainly appreciate them. But what does it mean for how quickly we're able to do this? Does this bode you know, bode well for treatment of cancer and other viruses? Absolutely? You know the message your RNA technique, which is the Maderna ampviser vaccines. Not that the other ones are not very effective. They use a different technique with a with a viral vector, other approaches, but the m RNA that

can be tweaked I think is amazing. And I think that technique. And just quickly, because we're gonna have to go to the president, just quick wrap up. Huge, great potential, Tim, great potential. All right, for great weekend, forgive us, forgive us, uh Ian last better, Thank you so much. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. So here we are one year later. Yes, progress since the outbreak, and yet

the US is still charting the long way back to normal. Tim, Yeah, And and charts are the theme of the day or the theme of the piece. When it comes to Olivia Rockman and colleagues latest piece on the US economy and the aftermath of the surges, I won't say the aftermath of the pandemic by any means, but where we are in the recovery. She's Bloomberg News US Economy reporter joins us on the phone from New York City. It is so hard for me, Olivia to choose one single chart

from this to focus on. So I'm going to ask you to do the hard work here. What is one chart in your piece that tells the story of the recovery from a year ago? And for a radio folks, we're gonna put post it so you get a little bit of a vision as well, and check it out on YouTube because some of these pick these charts will

come up. Hi, thanks for having me. In terms of the charts that we've covered, I think the jobs market is maybe the most important, given that it's the one that still had the most progress to be had last year. We lost about twenty two million jobs in March and April and we're still only halfway back to recovering those and that's of course the metric that's lifted up closely by both the Treasury and sent Cheer Powell. And so it's going to continue to be a huge conversation going

into the rest of this year. Okay, so I can explain this chart for and and do it. Try to do it justice because we're talking on the radio here, But it shows an absolute jump and unemployment when the pandemic was declared all the way up to a whopping twenty two point nine percent and then coming down to just about eleven point one percent. Uh. This is the the US rate of unemployment and underemployment, so different than UM. The headline figures that we see what else were you

focusing on when you think about the recovery here? What are some important metrics that we need to keep in mind and also explain a little bit because there's been disconnect, a huge disconnect between Wall Street in Main Street, right, so looking at the flip side of the job sector

of the economy. Housing on the other hand, has been extremely strong thanks to low borrowing rates, and so we see that existing home sales and new home sales as well as just mortgage refinancing is skyrocketing and has been extremely strong. Now to your point about this K shape recovery that we often talk about, evictions are up massively UM in the last year, and that's mostly because renters as opposed to homeowners, are having a really hard time.

And again many of the renters are people that have lost their jobs. Well, and another chart, I mean, listen, it all goes back to yeah, I think the jobs one is such a big one, but you do break it down restaurants and bars. Listen, Olivia. We have talked about that so much over the past twelve twelve months, talked to a lot of the well known chefs here in the New York metro area. I mean they were just shut down, and you guys have a chart on that. Yeah,

that's right. So restaurants actually have been, you know, kind of stagnant since the initial reopenings in the summer. That said, many economists are optimistic that restaurant sales will found that quickly, especially in the next couple of months as the weather warms and vaccinations pick up um. But on the other hand, we have these COVID variants that remain a risk as well as just consumer confidence in terms of their health

concerns about going out. So one of the charts in here that I think could be familiar to a lot of people who have been following this story is the one that shows the rich getting absolutely so much richer during this pandemic. When the pandemic was declared, the wealth, the net worth of the world's wealthiest people absolutely jumped in the last year up to two point seven trillion dollars from just about one point six trillion dollars last March.

What's the story there. Well, we've seen in the stock market that the you know, stocks that have performed extremely well, or in the tech industry, and you know, many of the wealthiest people are either videos of those companies or have stakes in those companies, and so they have done extremely well. Now, on the other hand, the services sector has been extremely hard hit, and so that's why we see,

you know, this extreme amount of job loss and poverty elsewhere. Yeah, listen, these are charts to tell the story of the past year. Uh And I just put it up on Twitter. If folks want to get a little bit of a deeper dive into it and check it out. Olivia, Thank you so much, Olivia Rockman. She's Bloomberg News US economy reporter on the phone in New York City. But you know, when you break it down to him, this tells so much.

It does. I mean, it's a tale of two different economies. Absolutely. Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. No, no, no, please, I don't want to drive. Question. Try trying, job. This is the drive to the globe coming. Thanks, We'll try us. Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just got about eleven minutes left in today's trading session, and Charlie was breaking

down some of those equity numbers. We are just about at our hounds of the session after some selling earlier on up about three one point on the Dow, the S and p U about just about three. Call it flat, NAZAC still lower, but definitely off. It's loads of the session. What a week it has been. Let's get into a Nancy Prile, she's co CEO and senior portfolio manager at Essex Essex Investment Management with us on the phone from Chicago. Nancy, good to have you here. How are you and what

do you make kind of the trade this week? Because there's been volatility and yet we're ending up with some

pretty decent gains for the overall equ markets. Exactly well, we are seeing a much increased level of volatility, although still you know, not crazy, based on both the very sharp rides that we've seen an interest rate as well as what we think is a rotation away from many of the names that were big winners last year, the work from home shelter in place names into those types of stocks and names that are more exposed to the incredible cyclical recovery that we're starting to see the economy

enter into. And I think the strength that we're seeing today in particular, is really reflecting the stimulus that's coming with the signing of the one point nine trillion dollar package that is ten of US GDP that's going to be added to this economy to further drive revenue and

earnings growth as well as jobs and wages. Well, but do you think you know it's interesting or Dave Wilson earlier talked about UM Big of America's research out to that compared the S and p U cyclical stocks with defensive shares UM which are of course relatively unaffected by economic swings, and whether or not we're starting to see maybe the cyclical stocks maybe have kind of run their course because they've had quite a bounce back off their lows already. Um, how does that factor into what you

just said? Though, Well, we think that although the cyclical stocks have had a big run, and this isn't blanket on all cyclical stocks or all growth stocks, but if you look at where the revenue growth and earnings growth is going to be the greatest over the next couple of quarters where the margin expansion possibilities and therefore the expanse the opportunity for significant earning surprises, as well as

where the ownership lies. In these stocks, cyclicals, more value oriented stocks, and smaller top stocks in general are still very under owned broadly compared to the large Camp naz BAC one hundred or the large Camp Fang stocks that have been driving the averages over really the last ten years. So we still think there is significant room to go, that this first six months of out performance is just setting a stage for what could be a multi year period.

Frankly about performance. So Nancy talked to us about some of the stocks that you like. So what we like to do, it's find companies that have secular growth trends, big total available markets. But we want to find companies that are benefiting from those growth trends in a way that has not yet been fully recognized in the prices of stock. What that means is sometimes we'll find suppliers into a growth industry as opposed to investing in the

name brand players. So everybody knows about tesla an e VS. We particularly like a company called Vistia on the ticker is CC, which is an automobile equipment supplier. They sell UM heads up displays that are an important part of both autonomous driving as well as infotainment systems. GM is a big customer of theirs, and they will be integrated into GM's new autonomous EV vehicles that they're about to

come out with. And as we know, GM has said their entire police going to go EV like or they're about So that's the kind of name that we think is very exciting. Another hey, wait, wait, they've been on a tear. They run a tear. Certainly last year big bounce back, uh and even the year before up forty about in valuations or anything. Everything feels comfortable to you, we think so. Yeah, we think we are very early in First of all, we're very early in the use

of technology and the changing of technology and autobiles. We know what the automobile company saying about the shortage of semi conductors. This is really disruptive. And so the stock does not look particularly cheap on this year's earnings. You think this year's earnings are probably low, but if you look out a couple of years, the stock is very cheap.

We think it could potentially double from here over the next couple of years as they continue to gain penetration and importantly as other players in the e V market gay market share. So let's talk a little bit about about the cloud and digital transformation. Domo is a company that is on your list as well. Um, why are you excited about Demo? So we really like Domo here that actually justin asked their quarter last night. It was

a very strong quarter. They beat, they raised, growth accelerated. Particularly, they're what they call a r R which is annualized recurring revenue, which grew twenty eight percent in the quarter. Domo is a company that provides business analytics software. Now, there are a lot of players in that business. You like about do Mo is one they're moving from small

medium sized business up to enterprise. And two, very importantly, their products are optimized for mobility and they are designed so that it pushes the ability to use this business analytics software down to a much lower level. So it's not just the specialist software. It's really a software that generalists can use as well to do the data analysis and business intelligent work that is so important to companies today.

This is a part of technology spending that was actually under some pressure last year during the pandemic and is now starting to come on very strong. So the stocks put about seven times revenues, maybe not cheap on an absolute basis, but extraordinarily Chiefs compared to other high value, current revenue software companies, and we're seeing, you know, pretty tremendous earnings growth. It's not profitable, but is this a company. It's a pretty small market cap almost just under two billion.

Is this a take out for an Oracle or somebody else? Just quickly? So it could be, but we actually think that um, they have such a wide open marketplace in their own right that this company can grow into a ten or fifteen or twenty billion market caps. They can keep the growth rate up, and so we prefer to see get not yet taken out on its alright, alright, gonna leave it there. Hey, listen, have a good weekend. Nancy,

appreciate it. Nancy Pryle, she's co chief executive officer and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management, joining us on the phone from Chicago. That cloud space. I just feel like it's a million companies out there. Yeah it is. And look this is a small one with a relatively

small market cap. Especially when you think of the big players. Yeah, yeah, I mean the ones who dominate the space like Amazon and more right, which means maybe, and we know the clouds growing potential for incredible growth, like she says, but I do always wonder if there's that take out play within it. Um, just got a few minutes left in the training day. Yeah, it's Friday. It's Friday, and we're gonna end on an up note, So a bullish because those stocks are gonna pretty much end at their best

levels of this set. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News.