The Tech Road to the Super Bowl

Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg clovel News. Let's get the latest when it comes to the health pandemic and lucky for us. Back with us as Dr uh As G. G. Gronville. She's senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

She is an Associate professor in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, which is of course supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder, Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She joins us on the phone from Baltimore. Dr Gronville, good to have you back with us, um It's interesting. It does feel like again we're going through another chapter where we feel like we're moving beyond the pandemic and we're seeing, you know, very states say you can start

to take off your masks. How do you see this development? A good one, a positive one? Does it show some progress? I wish that, um, Well, first of all, thank you for having me, But I wish that people would hold their horses just a little bit longer. Um. We still have really high levels of transmission, we still have many people in the hospital. We have a really unacceptable death

rate per day, um. And but we do have some hopeful signs on the horizon, and I just wish that people would, you know, be a little bit more conservative for the next several weeks. What do you think it is that's leading a lot of states to drop their mask mandates. And we're not talking states that are more conservative and politically have been against mask mandates governors. We're talking blue states like New Jersey, uh in New York Is as well. What's is this politics or is it

the science? Um, It's not the science. And I think that it's that it's that people are definitely sick of everything, UM. And it's understandable, and that doesn't that includes people from blue and red states. Um, but it's uh, it's not and the and it's true that cases are falling, that the amcon waves is is really you know, it's swept through, but um, but it's still it's still not gone yet. And so I think UM being a little bit more cautious, uh, and trying to keep the things that we want to

keep open open. I'm especially concerned about schools, and I think that should be the priority. Well, let's talk a little bit about that, because I'm already getting you know, I live in a I told care about this yesterday. I live in apartment building in New York City. We

have a mask mandate for the building. And after what we've heard earlier this week from governors around the country, we already have residents who live in the building saying we've got to remove this mask mandate because it's being removed in New York. And I'm thinking to myself, Well, there are a lot of newborns in this building. There are people under the age of five who are not

eligible to be vaccinated. Help me understand the tension there. Well, in a few weeks and we'll be able to probably start being able to vaccinate the under five crowd not but but not newborns yet, right, I mean we're like not new born right to probably two to five years old. And um, and we'll probably that will probably happen in a few weeks start happening. But you know, it takes time to to get them, uh, I mean I and also it will take some time to help educate parents

that this is the best thing to do. Um, we haven't yet really done that as well as we could have for the five to eleven year old right now, nationally they're about a quarter of them have been vaccinated of eligible five to eleven year old and that's just not sufficient. Hey, one thing I want to ask you back on a plane, this is like the second plane. I mean I did one in fault him and I did he's been on another one. Um, but what do

we need to think about as we travel? Because I just thought for everybody was a lot more relaxed to wearing masks, but it was very different from everybody pulling out their wipes and wiping everything down. Um. What do we need to think about? G G. Well, I think that you know, if you are traveling and you are able to wear a mask, and you're with you know, uh, with people who you don't know what their status is, and they may or may not be vaccinated, they may

or may not be infected. I mean I'd wear a mask UM in that that situation. And and if you are able to UM, you know, all masks work, but better masks do work better. And so if you're able to wear UM, and then ninety five or a CAN ninety five or a CAN ninety four, something that's better. You know, that's a that has better protection. UM. Do that. It's not gonna there's no guarantee in life. UM. I know people are saying that, you know, one one way

masking works does work. UM, but it's you know, it's certainly better if you're not getting exposed. I mean, Dr Gronville. Before we let you go, I want to talk a little bit about self testing. I recently received micronavirus test kit from the US government free of charge. What are we getting wrong about the way that we're self testing? UM. One thing that I always tell people is you remember

that testing is a moment in time. UM. It will tell you your status at the time that you that you swabbed your nose and um, the A lot of times people think, oh, well, you know I I tested yesterday and I said I was negative. But then you know the next day is positive and so the testing work. That's it's it's more likely that you were infected, but you were below the limits of detection and the test.

So testing is a moment in time. If you're going to use the test, um, I recommend people check YouTube or the manufacturer to just make sure they're doing it correctly. Um, there's there's the tests are all a little bit different, so so why not look for an example now, really good advice. Hey, so nice to talk to you once again. Dr G. G. Granville, Senior Scholar of a JOHNS. Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health,

of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg. Joining us on the phone from Baltimore. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The new issue of Bloomberg Business Week, and update on a story about the loan shark, then President Trump freed from prison, who is now lending money again. It's a story that Zeke Fox at Bloomberg has been falling for some time. Tim Zeke Fox's financial investigations reporter.

He joins us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Joel Webber is editor at Bloomberg business Week. He joins us as well from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Joel. Before we get into the part in the sentence that wasn't served,

UM remind us who is Jonathan Braun. Jonathan Braun is uh the story uh that Zeke writes is basically the main character and that he also was a prominent UM character in some previous reporting that Zeke and our colleague um Zack Miner did in for the magazine a couple of years ago that kicked off really with a Business Week cover story called um sign Here to Lose Everything that became a series of stories. Um Braun figured into some of those um and and ended up going to jail,

although not for predatory lending. It was actually on some drug charges. Um. But you're right on the last day of President Trump's presidency, he commuted the sentence and John Brown as he is about to tell us, Uh, you know, sometimes you do what you do best and and he's back to to doing a certain kind of business. Would you find would you find Zeke? And how did the story? How did this story come to you? Because for the record, by the way, guys, this this story is unbelievable thanks

to Yeah. I mean a few months after John Braun got out of prison, I started getting calls late night text people are saying John Brown is back in business and this is a big deal because he's famous in this world of merchant cash advance, which are guys who lend money to small businesses like truckers, restaurateurs, cleaners, anyone who's got a little company. They borrow money at these crazy interest rates and even among people who charge a

thousand percent themselves. They're coming to me and saying, this guy John is ripping people off. How did he get out of prison? How did you get apart in from Trump? And then they started tipping me off and saying he's got a new operation based in in Borough Park and

he's famous for just like vulgar rants. We have a video of one that you can see if you read the story, where he's threatening borrowers, he's cursing them out and then he's but he's Also he's very smart and he invents these uh or take uses these legal loopholes to seize people's money when they fall behind on the loans, which is quite common given that the rates are so high. You borrow ten grand and you might owe twenty you know,

in a month or two. Talk to us about that because the victims in these stories, and you have a couple of examples in the in the story, Um, what do they go through when when they in turn into an agreement. Yeah. So I spoke to one guy, Brian Massey. He was a mechanic in in Memphis, and you know he's having a tough time with his business with the pandemic, and he started, you never just take one of these loans.

You turned to one of these somebody calls you a salesman and says, hey, do you need any money for your business? And Brian did, and they say, we're going to get you a great loan, but first, maybe take this trial deal and you know you're gonna get twenty grand and don't worry about it, like it's gonna be a good rate. And so he when the contract, these are all done, this isn't like your loan shark on

the corner. These people are signing contracts and when the contract says, hey, you'll get ten grand and you have to pay back fifteen and uh forty five days or something like that. So the contracts side, you're agreeing to something that's got pretty tough terms. But then on top of that, they're all sorts of hidden fees. There's really punitive terms if you ever fall behind and they have

to collect on you. And according to these borrowers are interviewed, these lenders don't always live up to end of their end of the contract. Well, sometimes take extra fees um or start trying to sue someone for defaulting when they have barely fallen behind or haven't fallen behind at all. Uh So it can be really devastating for these businesses. The massive the mechanic by the time I was done reporting the story, he had to close his shop and

take a job as a security guard. But meanwhile, they can be very lucrative for the lenders, as you can imagine if you're lending at you know, two thousand percent a year. Hey Z, can you you spent some time with Braun over the years explain his personality? We we have examples of him lashing out at at clients. You've you spent hours with him. Actually Tim didn't said correctly, Inspector Gadget. We'd like to have you explained. And you don't have to explain that one. People have to go

read the story to know that one. Well, yeah, so when I was investigating this loophole a few years ago, he was one of the biggest users of it or abusers of it, according to the people I spoke to. Its called Confessions of Judgment. And he wouldn't take my calls. So I stopped by his office and spoke to him for quite a bit. And first he was he was very angry and berated me in front of everyone. But then uh, and now you know, I wasn't That's what I'd heard he would be like, um. But once he

invited me, he said he needed to calm down. He invited me up to the roof too, so he could have a cigarette. I said, let's go to the street instead, So we hung out out on and the you know, on the sidewalk in the financial district. And you know, he said, I mean, he says, your sources are wrong, they're making all this stuff up. Why are you about to get me, you're harassing me. Um, but uh but yeah, I mean he's not a he's not a pleasant person.

He also offered you a job. I mean, I'm not sure if it was like a real offer, but at some point he said something. You know, it's more like we're not so different. You and I like, here, you are harassing me. You know what do I have to do to collect debts? Like why are you blaming me for calling borrowers when you when you're very aggressive yourself. Well he used a profanity and cause you inspector gadget, Like I said, people have to read this story. We

only have like forty seconds left here, just quickly. How was he pardoned? That's the crazy thing. I mean, he's telling people, like I've spoken to people who've spoken to him, he's bragging that it costs millions of dollars that he paid to you know, various Trump connected people. And but the only thing I could nail down is that he did.

And I don't know if Dershowitz says it didn't cost anything, but he did get Alan Dershowitz, the lawyer for Trump in his first impeachment, to represent him, to advocate for him. Dershowitz says, you know, he got only a small fee, but he can't remember exactly how much. But it could be that Braun had other people advocating for him too. I just couldn't get to the bottom of that part. We know that there'll be more installments and we're gonna

look forward to reading them. Um Zeeke, thank you so much. Seek Fox, he's financial investigations reporter at Bloomberg back in our interactive studio along with the editor of Business Week, Tel Weber. This story, this update in the new issue of Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovik on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so you guys know we're on the West coast because we're doing a lead up event, Bloomberg Live

event Power Players Summit that's tomorrow in Beverly Hills. When we're talking to all types of individuals who involved in the sports world, you know, the big game. Of course, it's about so much team. It is about so much Tim and teams as well, teams, players, coaches. There's also a lot of technology involved. There is technology from many different companies. One of those is Samsung. Mark Kilroy's is vice president of marketing for the Display vision for Samsung.

Joins us right now on the phone from Los Angeles, Mark Kiroz. How are you. I'm good. How are you all doing? We're doing well? Thanks? Hey. UM, give us an idea of of what people who are going to be at the game on Sunday are going to experience from a technological point of you, I mean, beyond looking at their smartphones, beyond being able to communicate with one another, beyond being able to communicate with others. What that tech are they going to be immersed in? Sure? Sure? So?

So you know that really starts when the kind of fans even enter the venue, Right, they're gonna start to interact with a lot of display technology that the that the stadium and the venue have put in place on that Samsung technology. And uh, when when we finally get the opportunity to see the playing field above it, they will see the Infinity screen by Samsung. Right, So that is the uh, that's the video board that sits about twenty ft above the playing surface, and it is an

all inspiring uh technology. Right, But that's not That's not all they'll see all of the different LED screens across the whole venue um. And what's really interesting is that, you know, my my first experience earlier this season, when I visited the venue Um, you know, it was a

bit of an all inspiring experience. But what really got me was that I would tend to look at fans during the game, and they were so so immersed in the technology and the screen above the the action on the field that I caught them a lot of times watching the screen versus the actual action on the field. So it's a pretty it's pretty amazing technology. We think about it, Mark, and you think about this new incredible Sofi stadium right that the game is going to be

played in. But you're right like it, I feel like big screens were like one end or each of the you know zones. But this is just as you said, it's a circle, you know, of all LED light, Like you can just be looking at things from you know, anybody can see something that's up there. The experience of the game, I feel like technology, or the the experience

of sports generally, technology plays a bigger, bigger role. I think about being you know at the US Open uh and Forest Hills, you know, and you're watching the speed of the balls, and like it's just becomes such a

much more high tech experience. Oh, absolutely right. It the the enhancement of the experience is continually being raised, right, and I think that's where technology plays a key role to continue to create that fan experience, that guest experience, because you're competing against um, you know, the technology in the home, right, I mean, you know the technology and the home has gotten very good, are you know? If you own a Samsung uh TV, right, you know, it's

great technology. You've got great viewing of of whatever action that's there. So you have to you enhance that. That experience has to be even better to entice fans to

keep coming into those live venues. And that's what we've done here with the Infinity Screen and partnership with with the venue to to deliver you know, that one of kind experience and then being able to augment that with analytics and other information so that, you know, so that you get those heads looking up and off of those screens on their phones right, right, and then you throw an audio, right, isn't there something like two sixty j

b l by harm and speakers? I mean I can just imagine like it's a home theater system on steroids. Oh absolutely, And and you know when you have the visuals combined with the audio, there there there. You know in my experience of this past season, and I'm sure that that you know, the Big Game will have even more unique content that they're going to deliver when when it comes to pass On on this weekend. But you know they would use that content because the ammenity screen

is basically a blank camus. It gives gives the the operators the ability to do whatever they want in trying to communicate to their fans, and so there were sequences of content that they would really pump up the crowd and then with those visuals and then bring in the sound system to the point where you know, it became almost definite. Right. Hey, we're talking with Mark he Rose, vice president of marketing for the display division at Samsung. Mark,

you are vice president marketing. So helped draw the line here from a really expensive investment like this at the stadium to getting people to go and buy Samsung displays for their homes. Yeah. So I think I mean the key is you. You you're trying to deliver one of a kind experiences whether that's in the stadium or even

at home. Right, So you know, the technology itself, which you'll see on display if you have the privilege of being in the game or at the game on Sunday, is some uh state of the art technology, including our h d R ten plus technology that you have the same thing in that home viewing experience, right, So that's really enhancing the contrast the light and darks to to expone expose those fine image details. You know, never miss a minute of the action. Hey, Mark, what's the demand?

You know, a lot of people are redoing stadiums, UM. We're all talking about, especially post pandemic experiencing things, and I feel like there's a lot more entertainment venues. What's the demand for your services you guys at Samsung to to build something like this or or similar scale type things when it comes to boards and just got about forty sconds. Yeah, sure, no, the demands UH is very strong, right, we were coming out of this pandemic situation. Everyone is

looking to deliver a unique experience, UM. And so you know we've been able to build off of key stadiums like UM Chase Center where the Gold State Warriors play, to now so far have been our next one that's coming up during the next Major League Baseball season with the New York Mets, which the City Fields, So we have a lot of opportunity in the future. How do you watch the game or how will you watch the big game? Will you be here? How will I watch

the game? Very closely? Given that my two favorite teams will be playing on Sunday, the Rams and Samsung. Oh I heard that. I'm not going to take offense to that. Visit Bengals fan. Okay, the Rams and Samsung? Alright? Are you gonna be there though? Uh? Yeah, that is to be determined, right. I love to be in the stadium, but I also love watching at home, so I'm a little torn. I get you. I'm with you, okay, Um,

good luck to both teams. All right? Mark Kiros, VP of Marketing for the Display Division, over Samsung on the phone from l A. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio Today. When you check out shares a Mattel stock staring after the Cup the reported fourth quarter profit in sales that exceed analysts estimates bleed by revenue from traditional toy brands. We're talking Barbie and Polly Pocket. So great

to have back with us the Mattel CEO. We're talking Eenon Christ chairman and CEO of Mitchell joining us on the phone from California. Eon. It is really great to have you back with us in your neighborhood. Yeah, we are. We could be doing this in person in another world right on. What worked so well for mattelvis in the holiday quarter? Well, Hi Tim, Hi Carol. Yes, this was just an exceptional quarter and year for Mattel. We outpaced the industry. We gained share globally for the second year

in a row and in every measured market. We also had the highest annual growth rate in decades, double free cash flow and more than double our earning for share. So the way the way we see it that our turnaround is complete and Mattel is in growth mode. The strength is broad based. We expect to continue to gain market share with strong growth in twenty two and three. And I'm not stopping there. All right, so many questions

we want to ask you. First of all, I know we remembered when we talked with you last time, and that was leading up to prior to the holiday shopping season, and we talked about supply chain constraints and you said you were working through them, you were figuring them out. I think you ordered a lot of inventory in advance. How are the supply chain UH supply chains today? That's right. We we did exactly that. We did the work and

navigate through supply chain issues. And it's not that there were no issues, but this is exactly this is our job, this is what we do. This is but how did you How did you do it? Because so many other people and of course you know different industries are not apples to apples, But how did you do it? How did you manage the supply chain challenges? Well, you know, we we anticipated the short supply and the longer lead times and factor that into our planning. You know, we

took very specific actions. We pulled forward production to increased capacity. We expedited procurement and sourcing of raw materials. We UH, we optimized near shoring of production. We contracted ocean trade ocean fred capacity and and rates in advance, and also secured the access to additional ports and shipping lanes. All

these things were designed to mitigate for the disruption. And this is exactly where our restructured supply chain that gives us that is more flexible, more capital light, is able to uh withstand and respond to this type of situations. What are you seeing right now in the supply chain?

How are you planning for two to make sure to mitigate whatever you can when it comes to these challenges continuing, Well, we still see some some challenges, but this is something that we have been working through during you know, over the last two years. Uh. And even with that, we saw of growth for the year and still planning for growth in twenty twenty two, strong growth for two. We expect growth for all of our our brands, Barbie, Hot Wheels,

Fisher Price, also for American Girl. UM and see continuing demand for our product. Hey, how did American Girl? Because I felt like I have to say, I have a daughter she's now eighteen, but man, my house was full of American Girl stuff a lot, uh and we were all in. But then it seemed to have, you know, a tough, tougher time and it feels like you guys have scaled back a little bit. How how have you kind of reinvigorated that brand again? That's right, American Girl

went through a turnaround. It's now growing. It grew for the full year. It's having really strong momentum with positive results across old key metrics as well as our director

consumer strategy. It improved refordability, it grew in with new customer activations average or the value conversion rates, and most of the work has been around uh, leveraging the what made that brand successful in the beginning, the quality, the deep engagement with consumers, having a very robust digital flagship with deep engagements for our DIGC offering, and a lot of investments in innovation and content that accompanied the visible products.

So American Girl is back. Uh, it's it's seeing really exciting momentum and we expected to grow for the full year. Hey, you know you and I last connected just a few months ago on Bloomberg. Quite taken. You were joining us from the White House because you had just met with President Biden and his team to work on supply chain issues. Here we are a few months later. We still see inflation very very hot seven point five p cp I

print this morning, hotter than analysts expected. Thinking back to that meeting and where we are now, did anything material come of that meeting at the White House. Yes, I would say that we have seen improvement in in supply chain, especially clearing access to ports where there were some issues. Now not much better flow product into the country. And you know, inflation is is obviously, this is something that is a global situation UH and we are navigating through

it and taking actions to mitigate for it. And I believe we're in a good place to continue to grow our business and improve for fudibility in spite of inflation. So do you feel like we are in a better place as a country when it comes to supply chains, when it comes to log jams that are shipping ports than we were back in late November early December. We have seen improvement, and I believe that the system is now able to UH to to manage through those issues.

It's not that we're completely out of the woods. We still expect issues, but at the same time, people at this point became much more ready and able to U to respond to these situations. When you're when you're you know, we when you're planning for for this year and next year, at what point do things go back to normal for for the supply chain from Mattel Well with every day that goes by, we believe the situation is improving. We

also see it with inflation. We expect to have lesser inflation in the second half of the year and for inflation to moderate in three so uh, gradually we believe that things will come back to normal. We see it also with the COVID impact, and if you look at what happens in other country gradually, Uh, it feels that we're coming back to normal. Now. We always have to be alert and aware and make sure that people around us are protected and and and you know, in terms

of safe health and safety. That said, we do see an improvement, a gradual improvement, and but picularly with inflation. Um, we do expect things to improve. And all of it, obviously, to be clear, is factored into into our planet. You know,

we are expect certain challenges, but already took accounts to that. Well, that's what I really asked you, you know, because you have an investor in event next week, and I'm reading a lot of the Alice commentary following your earnings and and one of them saying, you know, talking about confident in robust your outlooks for three but one saying the Key Bank that they almost felt like you gave too strong of an outlook. Um, what do you have to do next week with investors who are now very upbeed

and expect a lot from you? What do you have to manage in terms of expectations because not everything is you know, always goes as planned or as forecast. That's right. We obviously developed for two a pretty uh robust plan. Bottoms up. We do expect to see growth in our later categories in uh in dalls, vehicles and infant oddlet preschool.

UH this is again an area where we a global letter and we have very strong foundation that we expect our challenging categories as a whole to grow led by action figures where we about to have very strong theatrical lineup with Jurassic World with menus. This delight here so you know it is it is broad based. We're not relying on one on one property or one category or one power brand. We see strength across the portfolio. We are seeing the man that levels we have not seen

in years. And if you look at our trajectory at and what we've been at, what we've achieved over the last four years. UH, you know the numbers speed, speed, for themselves. Now. That's that I want to be clear that we're not sitting here and expect this to be an easy, easy journey. We right, right, We will work hard and and the organization is ready to take on the challenge. Well, the start hitting a fifty two week

high today. It's up almost fourteen percent so far this year, and of course getting a big boost because of the jump in today's share I have to ask you, Tim and I are on the West coast lead up to the Super Bowl, a big Bloomberg event called the Power Player Summit Tomorrow. We're talking with all people that are involved in the world of sports, and I'm going to catch up with Stephanie McMahon over w w E. I mean,

you guys have a partnership with them. I'm looking at you know, your website, these action figures, um, you know, whether it's Damian Priest or Drew McIntyre. I mean these kind of relationships. You guys really cast a fairly wide net when it comes to products. That's right. We're very proud of our relationship with w W It's been a great relationship and overall we are looking to position Mattel as a partner of choice for the major entertainment companies.

We are focused on market moving franchises, big important, culturally relevant brands and uh, and they're doing a great job at that. And of course, the the latest um wind from a tail in this area is the addition of Disney Princess and Frozen franchises to our portfolio. This is something that we just announced recently. Uh, this is another another important addition to our portfolio. You know, we only have twenty seconds left with you. The new Barbie movie,

Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie. How big is that going to be for you? We couldn't be more excited. It's a great, great cast, Greta Gelwick to his writing and she will direct it in partnership with Warner Brothers. Can't wait to get it out. So cool. Um, always fun. You always give us lots of time, and we really appreciate we get to really dig into your business. Uh, you know, and thank you so much, Mattelsa you know and cries

on the phone in California as we engine. Definitely one of the standouts in today's session, considering it's a downward market, that's stock up seven and a half percent. I'm yeah, I'll bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, I'll do the dravel. I want to drive. It's a good question. This is the Drive to the Clothes on

Bluebird Radio. And just about ten minutes left in today's trading session, and we are, as you've heard from the updates from Charlie, we're pretty much at our loads of the session. Really concerns about a much more hawkish FED, certainly on that hot cp I print. So let's get to it. Let's talk about the market. Yeah, really curious how Emily Hill, founding partner at Bowerstock Capital, is feeling about this. Bowerstock Capital has eight hundred million dollars in

assets under management. Emily Hill joins us on the phone from Lawrence, Kansas. Emily, how are you? I'm doing well? Are you? We're doing well. We're trying to make sense of what the Fed is going to do. Why we keep getting these hotter than expected inflation prints, even economists or underestimating how hot inflation is and when it will peak? Help us make sense of a daylight today? How do you? How do you look at this in the context of

what's going on? Well, the inflation number was definitely disappointing, and it's to pass expectations. I think there was a hope out there that inflation was moderating or at least an inflation was peaking, and the numbers today and make it look like that isnastgate. So the market is now pricing end you know, much higher and likelihood of a sinking basis point increasing rates in March, which I don't

think is a in a huge surprise. I do expect inflation to moderate over the next year, and I don't think I personally am not in the camp it's expected five to seven fent make it great high, but I think that is what the market, that's the possibility to the market's reaction to today. Yeah, you're definitely seeing it play out. So how do you? First of all, I'm kind of fascinated by your firm. It looks like it's all women, which I think is pretty cool if that's

the case. But I also like what you say about how you folks are grounded in the social sciences and you highlight um, you know, the Rand Corporation, Yale Universities, International Security Studies, McKinsey and Company, Morgan Stanley. Just it sounds like you guys are all coming from it at a different perspective. Having said that, then when you look at a market like today's, what different conclusions maybe do

you come to versus waybe what we're hearing from the pack. Well, I am so glad you asked that question because I'm actually passionate about about having a different background from what

its standards in this profession. And you know, I spent a lot of time stutting twentieth century American history, and I'm sure you have noticed there are some major similarities to day to what we saw in the post World War two period, and you know, it's very this pandemic, it's been very similar to a war and when if you look back back there and Paul Paul Cruvement isn't arguing the same thing. The inflationary surge lasted close to

two years. So we've had such a massive change in our society and our economy that I don't think it's surprising that we've had a surge in inflation, and so I think, you know, I think that that is leading to a panic, but it's really there was a historical package for this that I think it's reassuring, right, because you go from you think about it, right, an economy that's all focused on the war, the war ends, right, and then there's a real kind of recalibration, real shift

um And it was. It set absolutely incredible growth in the economy and market it did. It actually spurred a massive amount of innovation that occurred in the ten years after the war. And we're seeing the same thing here. Right. You have a boom in consumer demand at the time. It was a reaction, you know, it was the end of it was the end of uh Field, basically not being able to buy anything, not having anything available. You had boom in consumer demand. You had burgeoning public debt

that was coupled as an increase in private savings. You had big labor markets frictions in that case, you had troops returning from war and having to get back in the labor force and rembashed. The parallels are quite remarkable, and you know, obviously there were also some substantial differences they didn't have. They didn't understand as much about how the international it's monitory system operated. They didn't inject kind of massive stimulus to the economy that we that we

did this time around. But I don't definitely think there's some lessons that can be learned there. Okay. So it all raises the question about asset allocation and where investors should be putting money right now, and of course that obviously depends on time frame. But in general, a conversation that we've been having with asset managers has been is there any place for fixed income in a portfolio right now?

What are you telling clients? I'm I've just had a conversation today with a client who I had not had a number of clients that have had large liquidity events in the last year and a half, and we had considered a very high quality tax free municipal bond ladder, you know, about a year ago, and at that time we were seeing about fifty basis points tax free, right, hardly worth doing. And also the concern that with interest rates as low as they are, you know, is our

is our principle even protected? Well, the same portfolio now is yielding about one point three five steps, so I actually and it's a huge demand to tax free bonds. Now. I don't think you're gonna make a lot of money. This is this is about principal presumation. But I do think, you know, we will see in some of the very high quality parts of the bottom market. For high net worth investors in lead A want a portion of their portfolio to be orientory tax ory income and orientatorics presurgation.

There are better opportunities than their wor a year ago. Do you feel like we are settling down and finding levels in terms of a floor for the equity markets and maybe a ceiling for the treasury market. You know, I don't know about the ceiling on the treasury market, but you know, we were saying around the end of the year and that we expected about a fifteen corrections

sometime during the first half. I think the market is going to continue to be volnable at least through the March FED meeting and probably you know, through the end of the spring. And I think we've seen in some ways we've seen the correction we expected, but I don't

think it's over. So for clients of ours that have a lot of cash, you know, our our strategy, you know our approaches, have a rigorous long term acid allocations strategy and be putting cash to work now, But not all of what you know, because they're they're their opportunities were continuing to unfold. What's the timeline there? Typically in just thirty seconds right now. For for people with big mclinity events, it's it's four to six months re entry

strategy or any should say, all right, we gotta run. Hey, Emily, great to check in with you. Emily Hill, she's founding partner at Bowersock Capital eight hundred million dollars in assets under management, joining us on the phone from Lawrence, Kansas, UH and that is where the firm is based. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. And you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

or watch us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News