The Outlook for a COVID-19 Vaccine

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. This is a story that we really started talking about last week with our next guest, and we've been talking about it with him for years now, and it's really ratcheted up even over the past forty

eight hours. We're talking about Hong Kong and China. It's relationship, its relationship that crisis to the US and the man we're talking about. Andy Brown, editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy, joining us on the phone from New Hampshire. So Andy, help us understand what has happened of late, because it seems to have accelerated pretty quickly this week and with some moves that are going to be hard to walk back. What do we need to know about what's going on

in Hong Kong. Yeah, well, acchanged, You're absolutely right. Things have come to a head UM in Hong Kong with the National People's Congress China's parliament passing UH national Security legislation, which is going to be imposed on Hong Kong bypassing the Hong Kong Legislature UM. And this is very clearly a prelude to a broad and very decisive crackdown on the democracy protests pro democracy protests UM in Hong Kong.

And in response to that, the United States has determined that Hong Kong no longer enjoys or autonomy or a sufficient level of autonomy from China UM. And we don't quite know what the implication of that is, but it could mean anything from the U S revoking Hong Kong Special trading status with the United States to going after the assets of individuals responsible for that legislation, or indeed something broader like you know, an even broader decoupling in

the financial sector. Choking off the flow of funds into China, many of which a mediated through Hong Kong, which of course is one of the world's largest financial centers. And as you know, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lamb, she defended the legislation earlier this week and she said, quote, it will not affect the legitimate rights and freedoms enjoyed by Hong Kong residents. Is she right? That's my first question?

And what about this timing? Why is this happening? Is it because just of the protests or was this, you know, something that was going to come from China at some point? Well, actually it was supposed to have come from Hong Kong. You know, Hong Kong administration was supposed that we put in place a national security law many many years ago, UM, but has been putting it off in the face of, of of course, massive widespread opposition from all segments of Hong

Kong society. Hence it was imposed, um, you know, with with without any form of review um by by the the the territories legislature. UM. So as far as Carry Lamb is concerned, saying that you know, this isn't a threat to the rule of law. We heard something similar from her predecessor, Um Ton Chi Hua. UM. So you see that the the the essence of this law is it's going after UM secession, terrorism, UM, you know, UH sedition, UM,

collusion with foreign forces UM. And so Ton Chihua said, well, you know, as long as you're not engaged in acts terrorism, you're going to be fine, which essentially what Carrie Lamb seems to be saying. UM. Problem is that these terms in the Chinese judicial lexicon can mean just about anything that the authorities want them to mean, and they're used in China to go after a huge broad array of dissidents UM, you know, Ngo people, the Wagers, the Tibetans,

you know, UM and so these are catch all terms. Furthermore, the legislation is going to be accompanied by a physical presence in Hong Kong of the security services from agencies from China Ministry of State Security, Ministry of Public Security. So you know, it's not clear what degree of oversight or interpretation, if if any, that Hong Kong courts will have over this new National Security ages at law. At the very minimum, you can say that it will it

will exist side by side with law. That is the term that is there to protect freedom in Hong Kong, and it will also include this shadowy parallel presence of Chinese security forces operating side by side with the Hong Kong Police Force. So andy to be a little bit parochial about this. From from my perspective, I think about our listeners, many of whom work in and around Wall Street. They work in the financial industry, the financial services industry.

If you're sitting at JP Morgan Morgan, Stanley, Goldman, Sachs, any number of global banks, you have a big presence in Hong Kong. What are you thinking about right now in terms of your people who are there now? And maybe more importantly, how do you think about Hong Kong and the near the midterm future. Yeah, so you know, many details of this legislation, Uh, you know I yet to be revealed. We don't know how it's going to be implemented. Um, you know, will it be swift, will

it be brutal? Will it be hard? Will it be you know? We we we don't know. UM. I think probably if you're investing in Hong Kong right now, your immediate confirm is about street violence, is about the chaos

that's bringing the Hong Kong economy to its knees. You may even be somewhat relieved that there's legislation coming which could potent potentially snuffed that out and and sort of revive Hong Kong as a as a business center if you're looking for if you're looking at it long term, and you're thinking the degree to which Hong Kong is a financial center, and they say one of the world's great financial centers, the degree to which it is founded upon the rule of law, and the extent to which

this national security legislation undermines that rule of law, then I think you're going to be very alarmed. And at the very least, I think what you're going to see is a hedging behavior now by companies, financial services companies, UM. The ones that don't have to be there are probably going to start leaving. The big banks have to be there. They can't, they can't just take off and and leave. But I think you will see a drain of businesses.

You'll certainly see a brain a drain of talent. The United Kingdom just just a day or yesterday announced that it was going to give addition will visa rights to three thousand Hong Kong British uh possiblet hold is not full residency but additional visa rights. Um. Taiwan has said that it will it will offers shelve to the Hong Kong people. So I think you write a real outflow of tawer. All right, Well, we appreciate your context. As always,

Andy Brownie knows so much about this. Editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy Jonny is on the phone from New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. He has threatened to shut them down now. President Trump says this will be a big day for social media and fairness, as he's expected to sign an executive order aimed at Twitter and other tech giants. He's also singled out one specific Twitter employee for those

fact checking tweets. Let's get into this story because it just gets more interesting and kind of a hotter story each day, goes by. Bloomberg News White House correspondent Josh wind Grove joining us on the phone on this Thursday. So, Josh, we're gonna get this executive order. It sounds like it's in flux. The press briefing is ongoing at the Press Secretary just said that they're continuing to work on this.

You remember yesterday, it was supposed to come last night, and today they haven't really given a time, So it sounds like they're still working on at the draft that is floating out publicly right now. Uh, sort of targets social media companies by kind of taking aim at that shield that they have on liability, the Section to thirty protections that treat them as sort of a conduit rather than a publisher. It sounds like they're going to try to rattle the cage somehow on it. But executive orders

have murky authority at best. It is well short of legislation, and so you know, the actual impact is going to depend a lot on that sort of fine text, and again we just don't know where it's gonna land. Well, without being too silly about this, Josh, if I think about the relationship that the President of the United States, both as a candidate and now as the leader of the free world, has with social media and specifically with Twitter,

you might say it's complicated. Um, he has relied heavily on it, to say the least, and certainly has galvanized a lot of support, but also galvanized a lot of opposition. I mean, help us understand the politics of this, because the net effect might be good for him, might not be. How are folks around inside the Beltway and outside considering this. There is a long running grievance among conservatives that they think that social media and big text treat them unfairly

and target conservative voices unfairly. Trump has been sort of, you know, circling this issue on and off since the start is presidency, and this sort of fact check label that came on for the first time this week sort of blewed up again and pushed it to the hit front of his mind. But it's been there for a while, and so we've seen We've seen, for instance, them target this particular Twitter employee, Old Roth, who's the head of

site integrity, essentially like protecting Twitter against blots and misuse. Uh. He's tweeted negative things in the administration about the administration, and they're saying, look, how do you have an employee doing that while you're coming at us for for lying. So I think you know, Twitter has I guess, uh taken steps to I guess fact check some of the President's tweets, you know, the ones that effectively accused Joe Scarborough, the MSNBC host, of murder, have so far fart not

been fact checked at all. So you know, this is I guess, in some ways a red meat based issue for the President because many of his voters and supporters believe the Twitter and other sites, uh just you know, aren't giving them a fair shake. What's amazing is I think some would say it's long overdue for these social media sites to be responsible about what's on their site,

right and do fact checking. At the same time, you do wonder, you know, what the slippery slope is that we maybe go down here, um, And I just do wonder. You know, it feels like regulators have backed off a little bit about, you know, focusing on social media companies. But I do wonder if we start to see Congress kind of jump back into the freight at this point. It's a great, great question. You know. One of the questions that's also been raised is, you know, is it

these uh companies placed the police truth? And you know, I don't think that's necessarily part of the issue. And by that, I mean I think you'd find some Democrats who think that who might be uncomfortable with the idea of handing Twitter and Google and the likes even more power for our lives than they have now to start deciding what is true or not. You know, the way the Press Secretary put it, as the president today, she said he he wants to make sure big tech is

not stifle free speech. Now, this kind of backs in into a bit of a corner because the President can't be seen to be targeting Twitter too much inciting for free speech, because of course he would amount to censorship of Twitter in his fight against censorship. But you know that hasn't necessarily stopped him in the past. So I think that we will see something come out this The draft order is not as harsh as as Trump has made it sound, and it sounds like they're still wrangling

over it. So whether the final order is, you know, more watered down or more beefed up, I think remains to be seen. But I think it'll be a lobbying frenzy either way for big tech in Washington. I'm just gonna say, Josh, it's definitely an election year. Yeah, for sure, for sure. Sometimes we forget that amid everything else going on. All Right, Joshuayn Grove, White House correspondent for Bloomberg. We really appreciate it. I'm great political context there. You know,

we talked to Sarah Fryar yesterday. You can check that out on our podcast feed. But this is important. It's important for us to understand this. Twitter shares, by the way, they're down about two point six percent today after being down about the same amount yesterday. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. So a group of super forecasters say a COVID nineteen vaccine is still a ways off in today's Business Week Economics.

Business Week Economics editor Peter coy joins us along with the CEO of that group that pulls all of the super forecasters together. He's Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment. It's a company that maintains a global network of forecasters to make predictions for clients based on publicly available evidence. Peter's on the phone in New Jersey, Warren in New York City. Peter set the stage for us. I love this story. Oh thanks you. You know everybody wants to

know this. When are we gonna have a vaccine? It's a question on everybody's mind now. So I uh got a pitch actually from a PR person about good Judgment, a company I was aware of, but I hadn't really looked at their website to see what they were saying about COVID nineteen. I was really curious, and you know, I was surprised actually, and I saw the results how pessimistic they really were. It seems like they're on the pessimistic end of the stuff you're hearing. But I thought, well,

maybe they're right. And all the you know, companies and epidemiologists and government officials are just champing at a bit a bit too much, getting a little over Robertimi, this sounds like a story, So put something out so Warren tell us about it. And by the way, I think super Forecaster is one of the greatest descriptions that I've ever heard, Like two title, you know, to have the title like, yeah, I'm a super forecast, Like do you

actually have that on your business card? Or is that just something you sort of throw around at cocktail parties. I'm just giving you a hard time, but it is cool. Well, I'll want to know, do you have a cape? Uh, well, I think there is a cape on one of our stock photo images that we've used in the past. Uh. And I could tell you that the term um super forecast the SuperM orchastras themselves. They're a little uneasy with

with with with with that. But now that I'm CEO of the commercial spinoff, I sure recognize the value of the term. I'm all for it. Putting it on my business cards a great idea. So what what did you find help us understand? You know, as you guys dug into this, because as Peter you know rightly said, this is running, you know, counter to what a lot of us are, you know, hearing and reading from maybe more

optimistic folks. Yeah. So the way we approach these kinds of questions for a clients and government and private sector and finances is we think in terms of probabilities. So rather than saying, well, a vaccine is unlikely or likely or absolutely for sure those sorts of things. Uh, but they're really hard to track, to evaluate, to interpret. So we use probabilities numbers that you can compare across different kinds of questions. When will the US economy recover? Were

less optimistic than my old friend Steve Raschudo Uh. But also when is of what vaccine going to be widely available? And then we create ranges so we can get a little bit more nuance. What's the probability that a vaccine will be in wide distribution by the end of this year? Right now, the super forecasters have pretty low odds in the single digits that that's going to occur. Now, that doesn't mean it won't. In a world of probabilities, you know, it's low, we may see it. Uh, But then by may,

I mean like six percent probability. Um, So it's not zero, but the probabilities are much higher for a vaccine and wide circulation about a year from now. And I can also say that the pessimism or the skepticism is less than what it was. One of the things that super forecasters will do is follow the news flow like we all do and and uh, and then antify the impact

of that news flow on their forecasts. And so some of the news that we have been seeing about possible successes and some of the vaccine research has been reflected in that now they're not seeing much movement in the probability that we'll get a vaccine by the end of this year, but a vaccine by this time next year has moved up. Well, it's so fascinating, you know, Peter, I feel like Jason likes to make references like this is going to be in billions, But I could see

this being in billions, you know, down the road. It's like, you know, figuring out what's the likelihood of something happening or not happening. But I do think in a world where I was just in a conversation with a bunch of CEOs, there's just no data and folks are saying you've got to throw out the old data points because they just don't apply to the future. You know, this kind of information can be very useful. Yeah, I mean information. It's not like this is the answer. I mean the

good judgment incorporated is how to share mistakes too. And when I talk to Philip pet Luck was a co founder University of Pennsylvania professor, and he was the first to say, look, it's rare that we're gonna have We're gonna be way on one end, everybody will be way on the other We'll be right and they'll be wrong. And but another hand, if you're right, fifty two of the time in the stock market for example, you can make a lot of money, so uh, you don't again

the the goals. The measure of success is not perfection. It's just being having a little bit of an edge. And I you know, I'm willing to say that, you know, maybe these people just because of their disciplined way of thinking, the fact that they don't have they're not emotionally tied to a particular answer or financially invested in their particular answer, but they just want to make the very best estimate makes them worth listening to. Yeah, well, and weren't it.

And we should note you know your background is in hedge funds. I mean you you helped co found a head fund. You understand the research element and so from an investment perspective, exactly the framing, uh that Peter just laid out is I think important for people to keep in mind. Right, I couldn't agree more. And I wish I knew twenty years ago when I got started and find in Morgan Stanley what I know now, because they are all these wonderful tools that can give you just

a little bit of an edge here and there. And it's these little things that when you add them all together, can add up to a pretty significant outperformance relative to your peers. And that's that's what it's all about. All right, Well, we really appreciate both of your time. Warren Hatches, the CEO of Good Judgment, joining us on the phone from New York City. Read more about him and his firm. He's a super forecaster. You can follow him on Twitter

at super Forecaster. Peter Coy wrote the story in Business Week Online Peter Coy, of Course Economics Ceter for Bloomberg Week. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Huawei continues to be in the news and owing in Part two are continued attention that we're paying to cybersecurity and also some headlines yesterday coming out of Canada. Here to discuss all that. Andy Purty's chief security officer for Huawei Technologies USA, joining us on

the phone from But that's the Andy. Really nice to have you back with us. Thank you pleasure. All right, so let's start in the news if we can. UH the CFO of Huawei, the parent company UH continues to

be part of a big legal fight in Canada. Help us understand what's going on and candidly beyond the the legal issue here sort of what it means for business, what it means for the brand at this point, well, the effort against Miss Mong, our chief financial officer, is part of the overall effort the last couple of years by the US government to carpet BOMBAWE out of existence.

And in terms of the impact on the company, the decision involving Miss mom and the process for extradition will take quite a number of months, if not years, before there might be a actual trial in the Eastern District of New York. And we have great confidence in the legal systems of Canada and the US, so we feel

like I shall be vindicated in the end. But right now, this this campaign against Wahwei, the recent ramping up of pressure on American company's ability to sell to Wawa, even through international companies, is going to have a tremendous negative

impact on American jobs. You know, it's interesting, you know that this is going on amid a week or two where we are seeing once again heightened tensions UH and back and forth between the head of the United States, President Trump and of course Chinese President j and Ping. And what how do you see this? Uh? You know, you've got to run your business amid kind of all of this fury, and we're trying to figure out is that rhetoric or is it going to turn into actions

at all? The mainly impact both China and the United States. Well, there's certainly been an impact on our company. The impact US about twelve million dollars last year, and we haven't been able to estimate what the impact will be this year. Of course, it's it's complicated by the added factor of the pandemic, but you look at the overall situation. The geopolitical situation between China and the US is what we're talking about, and that's exacerbated now by the US presidential campaign.

So the the the competition among President Trump and a former vice President Biden to out maneuver the other in terms of anti China rhetoric, kind of a new red Scare kind of thing. Um indicates that this battle is

going to go on at least through the election. And there doesn't seem to be rational discussion and people don't seem to care about the fact that American jobs are going to be lost as a result, and can you quantify you know, the job's piece of this I understand that obviously things are complicated, but of the pandemic, and it remains to be seen what the total economic impact is. But help us understand. You know, you guys have several

offices around the country here what is it meant? And and maybe help us understand sort of the one two punches that were of this action and this UH confrontation between the United States and China as well as the pandemic. It synthesized that for us, if you can andy well, in terms of within the US, we have two issues. We have the issue of whether or not Huawei can sell to American companies and right now we're serving parts of rural America. UH. And the other issue is the

ability of American companies. Nearly three want to be able to sell to Walwi. So in terms of our global revenues, which last year or despite all this, we're up about UM. You know, we were impacted about twelve billion dollars. But the UH, the the annual amount that we procure from American companies is not just to serve our customers in America,

it's our global market. At its height, we had about thirty or thirty two percent of all Walwi global components came from American companies and they're primarily in the semiconductor industry.

And you can see in the last couple of months, uh, and they can speak for it a lot better than that I can that American UM semiconductor companies and their association's trade associations have basically been saying, look, the limitations on the ability of American companies to sell a Walways averaging about twelve billion a year that is estimated to be between forty and fifty thousand direct jobs, not to count the indirect jobs. And so the fact is, well,

you know, we're fighting for our survival. Um, We're gonna be okay, and we would like to continue to buy from a Meritan companies and buy as an American want to be able to see those jobs continue. If we have to, will go elsewhere and then we won't come back and those American jobs will go away, and and that's not going to help America and the long term, it's not going to hurt WALWI. And the strategy you

talked about the bigger pick. Sure, the strategy is that the US wants to hurt Wally, to hurt China because they are afraid of the rise of China economically and militarily. So so that's really at the heart of it. And so instead of promoting greater innovation technology by America, they're trying to hurt Wally and that's not going to help America.

The Sadney China in terms of a long term competition, which is which is very important Andy to be fair, And unfortunately we've only got about forty five seconds here. But I mean, nothing ever happens in a vacuum, right, And I know as part of the latest you know, trade agreement, China was supposed to be buying a certain amount of energy products and so and so forth, and

that not isn't necessarily happening. And you see China now, you know, in terms of what it's doing in Hong Kong, there's a lot of uncertainty and moves on both sides. What's the responsibility of China and all of this And unfortunately just got about thirty seconds here. Well, I mean we're independent of the China government. We're an independent company probably the largest tridal young company in in uh China, right,

so we can contribute the competition and job growth. So the conduct of the of the China government is different than US, and I may not like what they do and I may not like with the US government. Okay, suffer from well. I wish we had more time. And Andy, Um, you've been so gracious to you know, keep coming back so we can continue this conversation. So I look forward to engaging with you in the future. Andy Purty at Huawei Technologies USA. I'm roam a journal now, but you

let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, drive honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel let me. I want to drive. Just drive, baby, the questions trying. This is the drive to the globe that funkimmu. Thanks, We'll drying us on Bloomberg Radio. It is time for the drive to the clothes back with us. I'm excited to at back with us.

Dog CEO, CEO and partner at Covar Capital Partners roughly seven seventy five million in assets under management, based in Leewood, Kansas, and that's where we find him on the phone on this Thursday. So, Doug, how are you? How's it going? Wow? How are you? And Jason? We're doing okay? Well here we are, Yeah, we eleven. We're making our way through it. What's the what's the scene on the ground in Kansas.

The ceiling ground is good. I mean it's it's wet today, but but that's pretty par for the course this time of year. And and uh, but things are good, you know. I I think, um, you know, in general, broadly speaking, clients are are are well, They're they're optimistic, and I think deservedly so. There's a lot of good things that have developed. I think I was on you guys in the first week April, and so much has happened since then.

And I think by and large, very possibly predisposed well, okay, until President Trump in President g started going at it again when it comes to US China. You know, a headline cross the Bloomberg at three seventeen pm Eastern, Trump says he's going to hold a news conference on China Friday. And the rally that we saw, UH stocks went from their highs and took a leg down. We're just a little bit lower. But nonetheless investors are nervous about this.

Um here's another big macro thing, macro story that we've had to deal with a lot. I feel like Doug over the last couple of years, big deal in your world, or how do you see it? Well, I think incrementally sure. I mean you have to figure that last year we did see some spa of the China US tensions in coordination with a said that it reversed course from its more Hawker's posture the end its thousand eighteen, and that

combination really lit an explosive, broad based rally. So now geo political tensions are escalating, I mean literally as of the last few weeks, maybe a couple of months, and certainly the blame game at the start of the pandemic. But if the geopledge political tensions are escalating, but we still have a FED that's firmly committed to loose monetary policy, then I think the outcome of that um tension point is more than equal and opposite in favors of FED.

But keep in mind, I mean this is a budding impediment that it is likely to be more of a conflagration at least is partially politically motivated, right, because it seems like the one thing that both sides agree on is China is now public enemy number one in the United States, So who can be more hawkish While Trump's in office, He's not going to miss an opportunity to be coordinated that title m And so do you just sort of stay put and ride this out here, Doug,

or what do you do as you're looking towards I mean, we're almost to the point where we really are talking about the back half of the year. How do you synthesize this and feather it in with you know what we have still, which is a pandemic and a crisis and a health crisis and economy that has largely ground

to a halt. Yeah, the economy has ground to a hall Obviously, the market has just the opposite, right, And I think and the recovery is taken on almost warp speed proportions, And it's really the speed but not the magnitude that's surprising, just given the historical context of the market being a leading indicator of the economy. So you get to the point now when you say we've had fantastic monetary policy intervention, we've had fantastic ciscal policy intervention.

We're kind of at a middling range, right, A lot of the early games have clearly been made. Now we're at a point of inflection of where does the economy go from here to corroborate the markets move, So are there sectors of the market that still offer opportunity in strong consideration what's taking place still on the geopolitical side. So it's just another element that has to go into the calculus of identifying strong expected return sectors within the

stock and bond markets. Feel like we think it's time reverse course and raise cash. I feel like there's a lot they're dug in that calculus right now. Oh, there's no question, there's no question. I mean, I think, right

there's not only the economic, but the emotional. And I think when you go through in in that the type of pandemic and in that sort of that combination or or um coordination of fear that we experience, it made it difficult to compartmentalize and sort of see through opportunity from the headlines which were undoubtedly and deservedly very negative. So I think that's the thing that people are still struggling with, is they look to commit new capital. And

so what worries you the most here? Um? You know, I don't know that I prioritize any of the set of worries. I think more than anything, complacency. You know, complacency is a problem from the steampoint of um false confidence in the curve flaging that's taken place too quick. Is it relates to reopening economies, UM being negligent or ignoring data points that would obviously be in the in the in the broad based best interests of the collective

American populist to go very slow. And I think what happens right is we all have this pent up energy and optimism and for again is it earlier with good reason? Spots like being very measured in sort of the allocation of our energy and our efforts, as well as the allocation of our capital. So I'm curious, did you were are you putting a lot of money to get you know, to work our new money put to work, you know, Doug Win, we saw the sell off and have you

Are you just kind of marking time right now? No, A little bit of it. It's a little bit of both. So like we put money to work, but never with any probably in hindsight care on not enough speed, right, I mean, certainly the March twenty three bottom which is held,

we think it's going to hold. Uh, it's very obvious in hindsight where it was, you know, did we back up the truck to equities on the March twenty four We didn't, but in a very measured fashion as it was appropriate for clients and sort of their risk profile

and their ultimate long term objectives. But we're by no means falling off the throttle because if you think about what's happened, and certainly when you look at the attribute of the index, with the smps down six or seven percent for the year, but the average stock of the SMP is still down twelve or four and those are

still the biggest five companies in the world. So there's a whole subset of companies, particularly small cap international, where they've seen considerably larger draw downs, which we think make for even more attractive entry point. Yeah, especially if if once we get on the other side of this, if if consumers do come back, if the economy starts to reopen um with some kind of momentum, we certainly could see something more play out when it comes to the

equity markets. Um, I will right, I mean, did you think about did we mentioned being optimistic, like we're so optimistic on the science, were so optimistic on the American spirit or so optimistic on US economy two point or three point. We're gonna call this post COVID construct. But they're gonna be lots of changes in business and therefore changes in investment opportunities. But we always want to think

in terms of marginality. Right, how many people took on your program and said, you know, we're never gonna need commercial office space again, or we're never gonna have an attraction of living intercommuting to a big city. I don't agree with any of those statements in totality, but there are going to be subtle changes in that effect. And those shut up being very very positive. Yeah, now it's a it's a really uh it's a really interesting point.

And uh, we always love your optimism, Doug. It's really good. It's really good to hear Doug Cioca, chief executive US certain partner for cav Our Capital Partners Journeys on the phone from Leewood, Kansas, Carol realism, right, like you know you do, Like I I kind of get up this morning, I'm like, God, I'm I'm mistaking trips. Like I was really thinking about it and thought, is it as we can figure this out? You know, I kind of want

to resume that part of our world. So it's just a case of figuring it out, making it safe, and I do think it'll be smarter and more constructive. I don't think people will necessarily, at least initially jump on planes as quickly as they used to. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud,

Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts. And of course you can always listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News