The Final Day of Campaigning for the White House

dot com. If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Do you want to get right to the Business Week agenda with us? Is Jina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. She's on the phone in New Jersey. Also from New Jersey on the remote access is Ja Wilson, stocks editor at Bloomberg News. You know,

so here we are again. The markets started off stronger, but we're definitely off our best levels of the session and we do see as Charlie mentioned at NASDAC lower Gina, you've been writing a lot about this. We focus a lot on the elections, but you really are focusing on earnings. Yeah, and the reason Carol we're focused on or is because I think what's happening the market is as much about rotation between market leaders at the sector level as anything else.

I do think the election has certainly got some nerves frayed, and you see that in the fix and fixed futures markets sort of escalating over the last couple of weeks. But also underlying that overall nervousness is a rotation and leadership out of technology and into other sectors. We talked about the market being, you know, just kind of blaw today, not up a whole lot anymore after a pretty strong start.

The reason is because tech stocks have sold off. If you look at the other sectors, energy stacks about more than three percent, materials and industrial stocks are up greater than two. But it's really trust tough for the broad rise without the participation of the tech sector. And that's an earnings thing. So even the earnings have beat expectations, the tech stocks have sold off. Why have they sold off because their earnings outlook is deteriorating a little bit.

Other sectors are going to produce faster growth into and that's diminishing the case for paying very very high valuation multiples for tech stocks and logically right brain, left brain. You know, if we look at it, Gina, I mean, it makes sense considering the run up that we've seen in these tech names and performing and performing to support some of it. Yeah. Absolutely, And the reason that I think you also want to think about the reason behind

the runup in the technique. You know, going into second quarter and even much of third quarter earnings, they were the only game in town. They're the groups that were actually still printing revenue and earnings growth. That dynamic will change going into the investment opportunity set improves. Tech stocks deserved a high valuation multiple relative to the market when they were the only stocks in the market creating earning growth, and they were the only stocks in a very defensive

sort of portfolio really included a heavy tech concentration. Well, now that we're moving into a different kind of landscape, UM, it looks like the opportunities that will improve for other groups, and those groups are more value and cyclically oriented segments of the S and P. I'm going to ask you how much that cycle last in a moment, but I do want to bring in Dave Wilson and talk to us about this rotation. Dave what are you seeing. Well,

that's it. I mean, if you think about tech in the broad sense, I mean it's not just information technology, it's also communications services where you find you know, Google's owner, Alphabet, Facebook, and then the consumer discretionary category that includes Amazon dot Com. Those are the only three groups that are down today, along the eleven main ones in the S and P five hundred, and there are plenty of stocks doing just

fine after earnings. Uh. So you know, what what you're seeing is is sort of consistent with the idea that you know. It's it's those big tech companies have been drive in the market, and you know we've seen them come off lately. You mean Sarah ponzack I saw her chart out earlier today. I know she'll be on this program later on. Uh, just noting that if you go through those eleven main industry groups in the last month,

tech it's been the worst performers. So, you know, it's kind of consistent with what we've seen lately in the way things have kind of been shifting around, but certainly

isn't working to the market's favor at the moment. I know some value guys would be really happy to see some market rotation genet come on in though how long might this psycho rotation last, Like I do wonder how much of it is contingent upon the economic recovery, what we see in terms of more relief, Like I feel like there are some questions what one looks like which will determine who will continue to be the market leaders. Yeah,

I think that's a very very good point. If you look at the outlook for earnings, is a pretty good benchmark for what to expect. Tech is going to undershoot earnings growth for the majority of one which means this could have legs for you know, at least until the second quarter, I think comes first quarter. A lot of this will depend on who's in the White House. You know.

Clearly a blue wave is going to in my mind, continue the trends that has started in the market of cyclical rotation, because it most likely does mean that we get a pretty large fiscal policy package sometime in the first quarter. So even if in the short term you don't get any fiscal policy, investors are going to count on that fact come early and that's going to keep the value rotation moving forward in my mind, you know, And then also depends on how much we shut down again.

You know, obviously Europe is is shutting down again. Most of us are assuming that the United States generally will stay open, allowing for reasonable economic conditions to maintain through the winter. But that's a wild card. You know, we could have a much more difficult economic scenario in the short run. Even then, though, I think most investors are going to take that opportunity to add to cyclical earners

in anticipation of the policy outlook. I gotta say, I said that France number heard it this morning, not this morning, I think it was about one o'clock or a little bit after one our time. I mean, a record more than fifty two thousand new coronavirus cases. And it certainly made me sit up and take notice. Gina, Yeah, absolutely, And I think a lot of people are taking notice and kind of wondering what our response is going to

be as we head into the winter. And you know, obviously escalation in infections in the US is problematic as well. Will a new administration um you know, clearly this new administration will would approach the virus contagion potentially differently than the past administration. If we do have a new administration, in the White House next year. So there's a lot

of uncertainty, without a doubt. Yeah, exactly. And Dave, that kind of leads us to our chart quick tweet tease on which you got coming up in the chart of the day because it is election related, Yes it is. I mean, think about all the law and order issues that have come up during this race, and you know it's been a plus for the companies to make guns and ammunition. They always this watching this connection always just kind of blows my mind. All right, Davilson, We're gonna

look forward to that. Thank you so much. Gina Martin Adams our thanks as always, Chief Equity Strategies at Bloomberg Intelligence, both of them joining us on the phone from New Jersey. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Um, so much to get through in terms of the virus, and I've got to say we are seeing big surges numbers rising, especially in the Midwest, whether it's North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

Wisconsin in fact, I think is third behind North Dakota and South Dakota. When it comes to New cases per capita, and Nebraska and Iowa also up uh, and a look at some of the averages over the past week in Minnesota, the trend and new COVID cases and hospital admissions also upward. Let's get to someone who has really been so wonderful with us throughout the pandemic back with us, and we know she's busy. Dr Penny Wheeler. She's president CEO at a Line of Health. They've got twelve hospitals in the

Minnesota area. They've got physicians, clinics, retail pharmacies throughout the Twin Cities metro area in eastern Minnesota. She joins us once again on the phone from Minnesota. Dr wheel are great to have you back with us. How are you, Thanks Carols, It's good to be back with you. Yeah,

it's thanks. Just times here as we see those case counts go up in the hospitalizations go up as well, so so uh, there's some anxiety about that for certain I am wondering, what's the what are the conversations Dr Wheeler that you're having. You know, I mentioned the number over in France. We're watching Europe. I think everybody in the US is wondering, okay, is this where we are headed. France reporting a record fifty two thousand, five eighteen new

coronavirus cases. That's a big number. Uh, And I wonder are you guys setting up are the facilities within your system and that you are involved with. Are you guys in anticipating another big surge or seeing it all? Yeah, we are, we are certain to see it already. I would say that you know, in our you know, in in minnes you know you just mentioned Carol, the surrounding states to Minnesota, all the Wisconsin and Iowa, we've all

had about a higher than positivity rate. We've been creeping up and we've been seeing it around our border towns too. But we're in about eight percent prot you know, positivity rate. And I can tell you our hospital takes care about a quarter to a third of all um those in Minnesota affected by the virus. And we have doubled our census in COVID cases over the last two weeks. So

it's coming quickly here. But what's what's you know, I'm curious, you know, certainly in some of the conversations we've had with within the medical community, is that we didn't have the playbook back in March, right, we were just scrambling to figure it all out. Get the equipment, get every you know, the places you know, get the systems, the

necessary systems in place, or the equipment in place. I do feel like we are smarter now, and I hope so, but I do wonder what are you seeing or what have we learned from the past six to seven months, whether it's equipment, but also treating patients. Yeah, totally smarter, totally smarter, and how we're treating patients and supporting other

organ systems and knowing how to treat them. So fewer people who are in our intensive care units are actually suc coming to the season dying so bad is good good news because we've learned more and we have more more treatments and more UM support available. You know, we do have the right now, the stuff available. We increasing testing significantly. I'll tell you the biggest channel for us

is staffing. Staffing this appropriately for the search because of course, some of our health care workers are also people who are getting ill or having family members that are ill. So I the plea would be, boy, please do the distancing and masking. I know it's getting old and hard, but you're also protecting our healthcare workers significantly by doing so.

You know, I think it's really interesting that you're saying that, because um I had a conversation actually with the CEO of Chipotle last week and I said, you know, same thing. You know, what has changed in your world, you know, since March and April in terms of the virus, And he said, one of the most recent challenges is that our own employees are getting sick and it makes it

harder to run the restaurant. And I do think this is going to be maybe the story for the second third waves is you know, making sure that whether it's in healthcare, whatever industry, that we've got the necessary workers. And I know in healthcare it's critical, yeah, critical to just really the health of the community and our ability to treat people. So I worry that our capacity limitation will be healthy available staff. So it will be who limits.

It won't be on the it won't be on the PPE right now, it looks like it won't probably be on the testing. It will be on that. So what do you do? Can you reach out to or what do you do? Do you reach out to your surrounding community, But they're also facing the same thing. Is there is there federal assistance that can help in this kind of situation.

Not you know, we're not looking to federal assistance, but we can are collaborating wonderfully well among you know, the systems here, so that we're trying to just balance things out. If somebody doesn't have I few availability, who does, so we're not you know, this is the time again for collaboration, not competitiveness. And then we're continually working with each other.

Like two of us are involved, for example, in vaccine trials that are going on, so we're trying to be proactive about you know, enrolling people in in in those trials as well. Yeah, I do wonder you know that, like I said that this is going to be one of the main stories at this point. Um. I do wonder too that one of the things that we saw, certainly when we were in the midst of it here in the New York metro area, that there was really this great kind of sharing of equipment, sharing of knowledge.

And you know, what are you seeing, you know, as you deal with the entire healthcare community, or are you seeing that continued cooperation and assistance around the country. We're seeing, we're seeing the collaboration and cooperation here in spades, and well we can get you can manufacture equipment. What you

can't do is manufactured talented, compassionate UM staff. And so again that's the that's the area that I think all of us are most concerned about dr UM well are One thing I wanted to know is in terms of those getting the virus, are the demographics changing? Is it older, younger? Is it a mixture. I'm just curious what you guys are seeing. Yeah, the demographics aren't changing into terms of those UM disproportionally affected who are black, indigenous people of color,

so that's not changing. We are seeing a slight shift to younger UM people getting getting the virus uh UM. But otherwise profile and obviously the most of the very severe illness isn't. Sadly, the deaths occur in those who are in the older age groups or those who have chronic illnesses. So that's staying the same. Yeah, so very very similar. Listen, you know better than most it's all about you know, a vaccine. Although when you I'm curious

how you feel about this. I feel like we continue to have conversations where more and more members of the medical community say, yep, a vaccines very important, but also really important is wearing your masks, social distancing, doing all all those simple things that can really make a difference in terms of our fight against this virus. Well, no question over emphasizing those over and over again. I heard one of your wonderful masks UH public service announcements while

I was eating that's so important. The vaccine is important. It's it's not an all be all though. We're involved in a Johnson and Johnson ensemble vaccine trial with enrollment of people, and we're actually participant, you know, especially focused on populations of color, black, Indigenous, and people of color

as participants, targeting specific zip codes. Sometimes these these studies are done too much on a more of you know, a white um population, and this is disproportionately affecting people of colors that we're actually targeting and asked to target our our vaccine trial accordingly. And then I think, Carol, you said it just right on the other side of things, we want a vaccine that can be trusted for sure, and that has safety, and that trust is important to

people being able to actually get the vaccine. But remember even the even great flu vaccines, are you know, successful, and then there's a proportion that doesn't take them. So, you know, I also don't want people to think it's you know, we're flipping a switch and it's all over at that point too, But it's even when we get a safe one. Well, and that's a really good point.

But I also think, you know, we continually talk um, you know, Penny about that when we get a vaccine, we've got to make sure it gets out to those most vulnerable populations as you guys are targeting. You said some zip code specifically of you know, black and indigenous, you know color people, And I do wonder do you have a lot of faith in the system that when it gets to you know, distribution logistics, that it will get to those people who really need it most. And

what do we need to make sure that that happens? Boy? I do I do believe that will be true. You know, I'm an opport heart, but I think that those people who are most vulnerable and most willing, you know, those and in institutional settings that are elderly, those who are disproportionately affected, I think their acceptance rate will be higher. And when we have a vaccine that we can trust,

I think that that will be going. I don't know that we will have widespread vaccine available, you know, right off the bat, but I think that those populations because of the UM, you know that the vaccine wo be widespread, yet will be the first one targeted for sure. One last question, I wonder what might surprise some of our listeners, especially here we are, what eight months in of dealing with this virus UM and you've seen it, like I said,

front row seed for better or for worse? UM. You know what would surprise everyone about this fight, especially as it goes, You know, I would I'd have to say our staff. The resilience of our staff putting themselves on the line every day to try to care for others and going there day after day, um, despite their own personal fatigue. Obviously, this is affecting us all personally as

well as professionally and all that that brings. And having school aged children that they're schooling at home and then coming and trying to take care of people, they are remarkable, just remarkable. So I know that that's a surprise to everybody. But when you see it day after day after day, you the human spirit and its resiliency in trying to

work on behalf of others is pretty incredible. Well, I'm guessing as a leader, it's nice to see your staff, right, really just be out there, especially when everybody is stressed out on so many different levels. Um, Penny, thank you

so much. Dr Penny wheel Er. She is president CEO at A Line of Health, joining us once again on the phone from Minnesota with a virus up update, excuse me, and just talking about the collaboration that they're doing with Johnson and Johnson as well and really targeting some of the specific zip codes, the specific you know, and most vulnerable populations. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

from Bloomberg Radio. So we've talked about this. I feel like with the several business owners many of the restaurants space, including Danielle Bulu. It affects all kinds of industries, businesses, all sizes of businesses. It's really about how the big insurance companies have by and large refused to pay business interruption claims. This next story gets into it's gonna be featured in this week's issue of the magazine. Let's get

into it. Bloomberg News Legal reporter David Yaffee Bellini joining us on the phone from Washington, d C. Along with Bloomberg business Week editor Joe Webber with us from Brooklyn. I feel, like Joe, the stakes here are enormous for

everyone involved. Yeah, that's right. And when David came to us with this pitch, I think he really just immediately got our attention because we're about to see a case brought to a court by an attorney in New Orleans and it is basically the shot across the Bow, and I think all eyes are gonna be on it because it will be sort of it's basically business versus insurance and there's probably billions of dollars in this way in

terms of how this one um sways effectively. UM and he happens to be an incredibly colorful character as well, so that made the story that much more enjoyable to read. It's a movie in the making. I have to say, exactly, David, who is this lawyer that we're talking about. He's a plaintiff lawyer in New Orleans named John hotel ing Um who has basically been ensuing insurance companies after major disasters

since Hurricane Katrina. So he has a track record of representing businesses and coverage disputes, and this dispute over business interruption insurance is sort of the latest iteration of that. And how much money could we potentially be looking at here, like what what what's involved in this particular case and then what cases to come. So the amount of money in this particular case in New Orleans isn't entirely clear yet because the restaurant that he's representing hasn't actually filed

a claim. Um, they're preemptively suing to kind of establish the legal precedent that insurers should be on the hook for damage caused by the pandemic. Um. But if you, you know, broaden this out to all the businesses across the country that have business interruption insurance and are suing

to force their insurers to pay up. One industry estimate puts it in between fifty two billion dollars and two d and twenty three billion dollars a month that insurers would have to pay to cover the damage caused by the pandemic. And the argument that the insurance industry is making is that this would essentially wipe out their reserves. It's just not feasible for them to cover this many claims.

I have to say. I mean, this kind of gets to like, why do you have insurance, right, and this whole idea of unprecedented when it comes to acts of either natural disasters or you know, just unexplained events, and I feel like that's going to be talked about a lot, David, when it comes to these cases. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, the the other argument that the insurers keep making it that it's totally unprecedented because we've had catastrophes in the past,

but they're they're isolated to a certain geographic region. There's a there's a hurricane in New Orleans, which is Stroy's businesses there, but at least it only affects, you know, one city or or a few cities. Um, Whereas the pandemic is like a hurricane happening in every city in the country at the same time, and every business in the country is disrupted in a major way, and it's

just not possible for the insurers to respond. Um. The interesting thing is, you know, the pandemic took most parts of American society by surprise, but actually the insurance companies have been had anticipated at this moment for a couple

of decades. After after stars UM a few of the insurance companies were forced to make big payouts to companies in China that had to shut down UM during during what well you know, stars was sort of reading through Asia in the early two thousand's UM and after that, insurance companies inserted language and some of these policies that seems to exclude damage caused by a virus from coverage, and part of the legal battle is whether that language

should actually apply to the pandemic. UM. They're all of policies that don't include that sort of language. So the insurance companies have been have been thinking about this for a while, so they're not They're not entirely unprepared as this kind of legal battle ramps up. Okay, David, can we talk about the Lambas Yes? I said this guy was colorful and literally he has colorful cars. Um, what what is with the Lamborghinis? So John Hoteiling is a is a is a big luxury car enthusiast. He has

an extensive collection of Ferraris and Lamborghinis. He he told me that that as a child growing up in New Orleans, he had a catalog, a kind of Lamborghini catalog or buyer's guy that he would flip through as a kid, sort of fantasizing about cars that he might be able

to afford one day. And he kept this catalog. And when he actually became really wealthy, um, after you know, winning tons of big cases in the early two thousand's, you know, he went through this catalog and decided the Key would buy every single model all of Lamborghini advertised in it. And that was seventeen Lamborghinis. And so he's got those parked at a garage near his mansion in New Orleans, right right near this famous garden district. Um. And you know he's added to it over the years.

He races luxury cars. He racism in a in a sort of in a big race in Italy every year. Um. So it's a it's a pretty it's a pretty vast and impressive collection of luxury vehicles. What's he like though, I mean it sounds like just first of all, it is like reading a novel, your story, Um, but just the dinner that you start off with. What is he like?

I mean, how real is he? He's he's a he's a real person and he's really passionate about about this cause I mean he's He's not somebody who just showed up on the scene and started suing insurance companies because he thought that this was you know, this was like the biggest, biggest chance to make money off the pandemic or something like that. UM. He's been kind of an advocate on behalf of insurance policy holders since Katrina, which happened in his in his hometown. UM. He's really knowledgeable

about these issues. UM. And he's done a lot of work to sort of unite um different types of businesses around the country and various lobbying efforts to get you know, laws passed that couldn't force insurers to pay out. UM. So so for him, it's a it's a kind of really personal battle and you know, not just kind of

a moment of opportunism. UM. I just have to say I love how it it wraps up that, you know, while the insurance companies are saying, wait, this could kind of knock us, you know, out of business too, it feels like he's saying, I love the quote that you know, if I hit them one percent enough to buy a fleet of Ferraris in a private jet and houses all over and a humongous mansion with tens of millions and antiques in it. You don't cares to drop in the bucket.

I mean, it's just it's it's kind of interesting to hear his take on this, and he sounds like quite a character. All right. It's definitely a mustery, uh and everybody should check it out. David, Thank you so much, David Yaffe Bellini. He's legal reporter at Bloomberg News. Check out the story at Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg and will be in uh, the current issue or

the upcoming issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine. Joe Webber, thank you as well, editor at Bloomberg business Week, joining us on the remote access from Brooklyn. So a great story. I'll put it out on Twitter as well because it's interesting. This is one of the big issues we've We've talked

with Danielle Blue. We've talked with a lot of folks in the restaurant industry who were counting other insurance policies to kind of help them through and then kind of had a harsh awakening to see that they weren't necessarily covered. And as we know, the restaurant industry raisor within in terms of margins, and a lot of them just on the edge, any of the smaller players. It's been really tough.

But it's not just restaurants. It's all kinds of businesses, and that is certainly what this case is all about. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Hey, here we are Election Eve, just hours before holes officially open on the East coast of the United States, last day of campaigning for President Trump and former VP Joe Buying a hundred million early votes, already forecast to be in one third of the Senate also being elected. Race

has become tighter of the last few weeks. Man, it's just one headline after another. Bloomberg News political contributor and Iona College professor a political science Jeanie Zo is back with us again from New Rochelle, New York. Genie, good to have you here. It is here almost. It's hard

to believe. When you just said election Eve, I thought she can't really, Wow, it is, And you know, I would just add another number that I read earlier today, which is fourteen billion dollars spent by federal candidates, committees and outside groups raised and spent this election cycle. Breaking all records obviously, but it's you know, it's almost a mind numbing number to imagine spent on an election. Well, you know, we always say it's not different this time around,

Yet it feels really different this time around. Is it? You understand elections? You see cycles. I mean, is are there things that make it different this year? Absolutely? Obviously the pandemic number one, and the amount of people that have engaged in early voting. You know, we just talked the last week. It was you know, I can't remember where we were at that point, fifty million or whatever it was, and now we are over nine million at the latest. This is a third of Americans almost, it is.

It is a stunning number, and I think, you know, if it's any indication of what we see on Tuesday, we're going to see you know, record breaking or near

record breaking, very high turnout. And it's astonishing. And I think one thing we don't do enough is give credit to the American public and also the poll workers who are out there making this happen, because you know, it's you know, there was a time several months ago when we thought maybe people simply wouldn't go out to vote, or wouldn't engage because of COVID, and yet we've seen

exactly the opposite. Yeah, that's really fascinating. I agree with you, and I think we were concerned about a lot of times at polls. It's a lot of older individuals who were to be nervous about being there because of COVID. So one thing I've got to ask you, I mean, you watch the polls. There are lots of them. I just kind of go through it every morning, and you know,

we reminded that last time around we got it wrong. Um, is there something different about the methodology this time around that can make us look at certain poles or poles in general as being more reliable this time around? There are there are some differences. The number one difference is that we have a lot more polls than we had in sixteen, and particularly in the battleground states, and they

are polling later. Like you know, we have seen polls over this weekend still coming today which are giving us indications about important states like Pennsylvania. But the sheer number of polls, and then the posters did try to learn from in areas where they may have missed, and things like trying to do a better job of voter turnout and and reaching those voters who are actually going to engage. Of course, the pandemic has you know, thrown a monkey

wrench into all of it. But we have seen a different tact and I you know, we don't know yet if it's going to pay off, because there is still the question are people being honest with pollsters? You know, are these numbers actually reflective of what we're going to see? But I think the one thing to keep in mind the polls have been remarkably steady throughout all of these changes in this election cycle, and by and large they have shown Joe Biden in the lead, although in some

cases within a margin of error. And so that's where we are as we approach election day. But again, you know, things can change at the last minute. Well what do you make to you have listened? We talked a lot. I know, Bloomberg business Week magazine did a whole story on like the shy Trump voter, right that people back in sixteen wouldn't come out and say we're going to vote for Donald Trump, and yet they did, you know privately,

uh ultimately when they went and pulled the lever. I was watching some coverage of people talking about shy Biden UM followers. Whether you're in a very kind of normally red state like of Arizona, where you're afraid to kind of come out and say something. So I do wonder are there a lot of you know, are we still in a situation where people maybe don't want to say who they are voting for? I think so. I do

think so. So we you know this this notion of a spiral of silence where people feel that something is not you know, politically or socially acceptable in their circles, so they won't certainly admit it to a stranger who calls them on the phone for a poll. Um. So, whether that's you know, you're going to support Joe Biden and you're in a red state, or you're going to support Donald Trump and you're in a blue state. I do think we know that that is out there. The

extent of it, I think is a big question. We know the Trump team feels that there are a lot more of those people out there than you know, many researchers have been able to document. But some of this is just going to take after election day comparing what are the actual results to what people were telling the posters. Everything at this point now becomes you know, guessing within a margin of error in a probability, what do you

think you're going to be? Ultimately, the key groups that maybe show up at the polls that haven't in the past. Is it minorities? Is it women? Um? What is it or that? And and if maybe shifted who they were supporting last time around. I think women, um, white women we're going to be looking at, particularly in the suburbs. UM. I think seniors. Uh, we're seeing a much more marked support amongst seniors for Joe Biden than Democrats have enjoyed in two decades. And I would also say I'm keenly

interested in young people. They seem to have a lot of energy. Will there won't they turn out? They usually don't turn out and as record numbers as you know, their their counterparts, but I'm interested to see if they do. And then of course over the weekend we're hearing concern amongst Democrats about African American turnout in key states like Florida, So that's also going to be interesting. And you know, we talk a lot about shifts, Donald Trump shifting over

some African American men. They're estimating about which is not huge, but much better than Republicans normally, do what I mean? And what is you know, still, the issue is it the economy? Is a virus? It was interesting the coverage this weekend, and it was all maybe because of the spikes that we're seeing in cases once again in this country and just globally. You know, is it the virus? What are people voting on? Typically it's do you feel better?

Do you have a job? Do you feel economically better? We just got about thirty seconds and then we'll come back and talk some more. But what is it? I'm guessing it's going to be COVID, but I don't know for certain. That is the big question. Can I just ask you first of all, was it a little crazy some of the stuff that was happening on the campaign

trail this weekend? I thought, so I was watching, and you know, I think most worrisome to me was the you know, disruption that occurred in terms of the Trump supporters disrupting the you know, the bus of that. To me, and then the president you know, seeming to support that, that's very troublesome. And I know you've probably seen I've seen things boarded up in New York City and White

in DC. That's a scary proposition because we may not have results on Tuesday night, and if that encourages people to respond in that manner, that's that's going to be really upsetting. Well, so, Je, what do you make of the president come out and saying basically, you know, we're going to have a decision. We're gonna I'm gonna declare like,

you know, the results of the election. You know, it's it's you know, like so many things with Donald Trump, like nothing I've ever imagined hearing a president say, um, I can't imagine that he will do that. Christopercy this weekend said he would not. Um, but the President, as you mentioned, said he would. He's going to be at the White House apparently tomorrow, and he said whether the

votes are counted or not fully, he will declare victory. Um. You know, I think it's going to depend an awful lot on the margin if it's a you know, I think if it's a large margin that Biden has won by, I don't think it will happen. If it's close, though, I think we're going to see them filing lawsuits, and I think we're going to see two thousand, you know, in on steroids, and you know a few states versus just one. Well, and I do wonder. I mean, from

what I understand, Florida, I think, Arizona, North Carolina. Those are some of the states where early voting has been happening for a long time and they've already count been counting for a couple of weeks. I mean, what are the key states that we need to kind of watch because you've been so smart in reminding us it's not that's why we don't look at the national polls. You've got to look at the individual states. Right, It's fifty separate elections going on essentially, and it all comes down

to electoral college and who gets the vote. So what are the states you're going to be watching really closely tomorrow night? I think early tomorrow we should be watching Florida, Georgia, North Carolina. As you mentioned Florida for instance, as a long history with mail and ballots there, we expect that they will be releasing results early. And if the you know, Joe Biden wins one of those, that would pretend to

bad sign for the president. If the president holds out in all of those and the big questions to me are Georgia and North Carolina. Then this will shift to them, you know, the Midwest, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. UM. So I will be watching for those early sun belt states first because if the president and now, of course, if the President exceeds expectations and does really well in those states, then he could you know, match what he did last time around, but we suspect it will be at least

closer than it was last time. What are the states that we've got to be really smart about that they're only starting early voting counts, you know on election day, which we know physically is going to be probably impossible to count and get to all of them. Is it Ohio?

Is it Pennsylvania? The biggie to me is going to be Pennsylvania because we know that, you know, the sheer number that they are receiving and the way that they're going to be proceeding and when they start means we probably won't get elected, won't get results out of there on Tuesday night, and of course they're receiving them well.

Also North Carolina. So I think those states, you know, North Carolina, we may know a bit early, but I think Pennsylvania is going to be the big one, and again that's going to be critically important if everything comes down to those Midwestern states, and of course Pennsylvania is the one that the President has the best shot of winning. Um. You know, Wisconsin, Michigan, the polls at least seemed to

suggest Biden have a much larger margin there. What are you anticipating tomorrow night, Um, I'm anticipating probably one of those scenarios where the President holds some of those states and we do come down to a Pennsylvania. Um. You know, I would be stunned if Joe Biden won Florida. But if he does, it's going to be a very very good night for Democrats. Florida has not been kind in the past, the last conditorial race to Democrats. So I'm really curious to see from those early states that we

get results out of. You know, if Biden happens to take that one, or a Georgia or certainly at Texas, this could change the map for many elections to come. And also votes very well for Joe Biden. But I suspect the President will do a bit better and then we may come down to a Pennsylvania what does it say. More broadly, I think about your teaching genior class and that you know, we've been having conversations in my home

that I mean, it really is so close. Despite you could have, depending on where you are in the country, it could feel like it's a very red country or a very blue country. But yet it really is very divided. It's very divided, and I think you know, to me from a broader perspective, I think if we go back to sixteen and you have somebody winning by three million votes and somebody else getting the president winning the popular roles three million, and somebody else getting the presidency by

seventy seven thousand, I think that discrepancy. If we see and I'm not sure, but if we see something broader than that this time around, I think we really do have to ask about whether we should have an electoral college, because, you know, two for seventy seven thousand people's votes to count that much more than three million or more, that seems highly undemocratic too many people, and I think that only sort of frustrates this sense that we don't live

in a fair, transparent democracy. Yeah. I can't help but think if the forefathers were watching all of this and saying, you know what, guys, we created that system a long time ago. It's time to maybe do a little bit of a rethink, right absolutely. I think that's a big thing. And I think, of course we have to rethink polling too if we got this wrong. Oh man, such good stuff. I love, love, love your insight. Thank you so much, and I knew you've been doing a lot for us,

and you're going to continue through election and thereafter. Blueberg News political contributor and I own a college professor of political science, Jeanie Zeno on the phone from New Rochelle, New York Journal. Now, but you let me drive, no, no, please, I want to drive. Strive time question. This is the drive to the Globe. Thanks, we'll drying us. Dawn on Bloomberg Radio, It is time for the Drive to the close.

Back with this is David Did's, President, chief investment officer at Point View Wealth Management seven point three billion in assets under management. David is with us once again, on the phone from Semit, New Jersey. David, nice to have you back with us. This is a jam packed week, man, between the election, between the Fed, between the Job's report, there's just so much going on, We're still getting through earnings.

How do you make sense of it? And I'm curious our investors, are you finding more new money coming or what are some of the interesting trends that are happening right now? Yeah? Absolutely so. We've really got a trifect of issues that are confronting us. That would be the election, that would be the vaccine, that would be stimulus. UM. And what I've been telling investors really is just a matter of time here before we're going to get some resolution. Hopefully we know more at least by the end of

the week as to how the elections works out. UM investors, I think what they want now is just kind of a clear signal as to what's going to happen is the uncertainty. I think investors have gotten comfortable that, no matter who wins, their marching origin is going to be clear. You know, get the vaccine going, get the stimulus going,

get this economy going against. I think they're comfortable there. Um. You know, in terms of the stimulus, I don't know whether we're gonna get anything in the lame duct session here, but we'll definitely have something before the end of January. In terms of what clients investors are doing right now. I think they're basically just just staying put here um. Obviously October was a rugged month. On the other hand, the smaller guys a smaller fries to wrestle through thousand UM.

They were up about to percent in the musto. Obviously, it's a mixed market and we're seeing some rotations to some of the areas of the market that have been left behind. Her Well, that's exactly how we kicked it off. On this Monday, we were talking with our Gina Martin Adams and she just talked about market rotation and you know,

said specifically, it's really an earnings thing. You know that tech was the big story back in the second quarter, and rightfully so those valuations were justified because they were producing earnings. But now we were seeing, you know, change in terms of thought and that we're seeing market rotation. She thinks that tech will undershoot earnings growth from much. Do you agree with that, and that this market rotation might stay with us for some time or if we

get more stimulus than that could change things. Bottom line is stay diversified, you know, call but everybody says that all the time. David the timing of of a rotation is always difficult. But what we have seen here is that although by and large, other than perhaps for Twitter, the megacap tech results were stellar. The problem is they're up anywhere from thirty seven to se your day, and so the valuations for two stretched. It was that they

weren't meeting expectations. They weren't meeting the whisper numbers. So that cause that tells me you have to be cautious in that area. But what what I am saying here is generally dividend paying stocks hold their own, if not outperformed. But starting in February when we started to get the COVID coming in, the eighty highest dividend paying stocks of the spire are down twenty six percent while the SNP is flat, pulled up by those megacap techs. Now, what

what can I tell you from that? That disparity is not going to happen in the next nine months. So the question is through the dividend payers start moving up or the mega tech start moving down. Is probably a little bit of both, and that's where these dividend paying stocks I see a lot of opportunit to me, particularly as you point out earlier. The Federal reserve is really going to be on hold for a long period of time. It's such a great old kind of play, right when

it comes to dividends. But I mean, when you look at some of these companies, and I guess it explains why you like a name like Coca Cola or maybe a name like Chevron. Yeah, so let's talk about Coca Cola. Coca Cola in terms of beverages and bin is three times the size of his next largest competitor in that

out non alcoholic space. That gives you so many scale benefits. Now, normally you can't get a company like this, which is the differdend close to four percent, and here you have it is down from it's fifty two week Hi, So why is that? Is? Because guess what we pay less for coke when we drink it at home as opposed when we got to the ballpark or to the restaurant and buy. And I think at some point, maybe a year from now, could take a while, we will be

back to normal. And of course you're gonna get that pick up in the stock price of cocause it goes back up, and meanwhile, you're collecting that three percent plus dividends. That seems to me a low risk way to stay in their relative to when you have a you know, eighty basis point and the ten your treasury. All right, Chevron, talk about a dividend. I mean that's a killer. We're talking about over seven Yeah, you know, it's seven point three percent. And what I also like about Chevron is

it's a member of the exclusive dividend aristocrats club. What does that mean, Carol? That means it is not only paid to the dividend, but increased it for twenty five years in a row. That shows to me the commitment to make sure you're returning the profits to the shareholders. Now, certainly energy has been under pressure. We're paying the lowest prices of the pump now is we have in twelve years.

But with the amount of deficit spending, with the economy potential in the rebound, my guess is energy prices go up from here. Chevron conservative balance sheet, one of the largest in the world, is well poised to take advantage of that percent. So you've got to really I mean, I understand the dividend, but you really do lose a lot in terms of the share price, no question about it. People who bought it a year ago. Hurden. I'm talking about getting involved now and of course to regain that.

With the way the math works, that's almost a double look. If that takes six years plus collecting your seven percent, I think you're gonna do better than most people in the marketplace. So one more name, I just want to ask you about Affleck. The insurance guys. What is it? What's the thinking? They're same thing? Well, so Affleck isn't that beaten down insurance group. But the beauty of an insurance company is that they don't have that um tricky

loan portfolios. They have to wonder whether the loans are gonna be repaid. You know, here's a company again who's increased that dividend for thirty seven years in a row. Normally that dividend has a one handle. Now it's over three percent. But they're only paying a quarter of their earnings out for dividends to they have room to continue to increase it. In fact, that dividends going up eight percent per year for the last five to ten years.

It's a supplemental insurance program. You know, as we know, everything's focused on COVID. People are cautious about spending on anything that's not an actual essential. But I do believe that people will come back to continuing to expand the Affleck program. They're big in Japan. The US DOL has been weakening. That helps them. And of course they have a huge stock buyback program one million shares who want

to buy back as soon as they can. All right, Gonna leave it on that note, David, Thank you so much. David Died's president and chief investment officer of at point View Wealth Management, seven point three billion annaucets under management UH and liking a common theme the dividends Coca Cola, Chevron and Afflack. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg

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