The Debate Over Work From Home Productivity

dot com. If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. If you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Carol Masser in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio along with Tim Stanovic Bloomberg Quicktake. We've got to talk a little bit more about the virus because we just mentioned about BioNTech what they said that they're on target with Fightser to

meet their production targets. We also have a store about Anthony Fauci slamming the UK's drug regulators saying that it rushed to clear the COVID nineteen vaccine from Fightser and Biotech. And then you've got Stage trying to figure out, okay,

how many doses am I going to get Tim? Yeah, I mean that the issue among the many issues is that there's no sort of standardized rollout program for this and does envision a scenario where, I mean some states don't even have the technology right now to keep a large number of these visor doses cold for a significant period of time. Yeah, So there's so much that we

still have or that we need answers to. Let's get into all of this with Dr Ian LUs Better back with us as he is on every Friday, Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at n y U Land Going Medical Center with us on the phone in New York City. Hey, Ian, nice to have you here with Tim and myself. Um, so what stood out for you this week because we've got a lot of headlines to go through for sure. Happy Friday. CONTI hope, I hope you guys are staying

safe and doing well. Yeah, definitely some challenges. You know, we're seeing more cases locally, you know, here in the Tri state areas, certainly nothing comparing to the to the Midwest and out west, where you know the record recording a large number of hospitalizations and deaths and taking you know,

certainly more extreme measures of shutdown Uh. Locally though, we are very excited because we've gotten word that we should be expecting the FIS vaccine delivery about mid December, probably around December fifty you specifically in ny U landown n y U line going is expecting. We got a call from you know, one of our senior administrators and uh, you know they're sort of working out exactly how that's

going to be, you know, distributed. My senses, these come in you know, large boxes and dry ice and have to be kept you know, frozen, so around the country and certainly here distribution will be uh an issue. But each box has approximately five thousand, a little under five thousand doses, and uh there are so we're in the range of practices, you know, uh the faculty group practice and of course hospitals and so forth. So I think, um, it's going to be a little bit of a logistical challenge,

you know. Fortunately, UM, it's not an emergency, uh, and it's going to be on a voluntary basis. Interestingly enough, really it's mandatory to have your flu shot, which is only about effective, but it is really everyone who is seeing patients is supposed to get a flu shot. Um, but it's not yet mandatory, certainly for COVID. I think most people, at least the colleagues I speak to, are very enthused and are you ready to line up to get it? It is going to be two vaccines, two shots,

approximately a month apart. So well what about you, dr? Are you going to get it? You'll be among the first in line, uh, if they'll let me. I mean, look, you are your your medical provider. You're on the front lines. I mean this is this is this shipment's meant for you? Right? Absolutely, yes,

And that's the understanding. I actually thought the very first people who would get it would be the in hospital uh, physicians, the hospitalists and critical care specialists, because they are literally bathing and COVID you know, in the patients that are in the hospital and isolation rooms and so forth. Many of those patients are very sick and need you know, very close care, the you know, the intensive care nurses

and so forth. But my understanding is it's really going to be apparently available to all of the you know, frontline health professionals, which is great. So be for the end of December or early January if most of us can get it. Again, it's two doses, so a month later you'd get the second dose. I think people are very enthused about it. Yeah, it sounds a way. I've got to ask you a question. It keeps kind of coming up at home. Why do they need to be

kept so cold in this for preservation? This particular formulation is you know, minus seventy three you know centigrade. Uh, And that makes it very difficult shipped on dry ice. The Maderna vaccine, not that we're playing you know, favorites here, uh, is it doesn't need to be kept quite as cold. That's not going to be probably approved or distributed until later. Well, it's very effective both very similar technology this messenger or

in a technology which is new. Uh. And I think people have some concerns, but really all of the data we've seen seems to be very encouraging. No vaccine is safe. There are and certainly with a flu shot, you know, we do see dion Bret syndrome and this transfer smilelitis. There are side effects. So but we're really not seeing that much from this particular class of a vaccine. So so let's say you do get proved in the UK.

Let's say you do get this this vaccine, and you get it close to mid December, you get it in another month for your your second dose. How do you anticipate that your behavior is going to change in the spring and in the late winter. That's a great question. Uh, certainly, I think you know, for me, when I see patients, I put on an N ninety mask, goggles, um. When

we do procedures like colonoscopy. You know we're gowned up when gloves um and so it is stressful and uncomfortable walking around all day with the mask and goggles um. And so I think certainly I would think about switching to a surgical mask which fits a lot looser. You know, you don't feel quite as restricted. Um. And I think is more people get vaccinated, Uh, the level of tension will go down. There is a little bit of anxiety when you're seeing patients and you realize this person could

hurt me. I'm here to help them, but they could potentially hurt me. That takes a toll when you've been doing that month after month. So Dr les Bader Tim just shared with me a story, um, and we were just talking about it a little bit. How New York has one of America's lowest per capita rates of COVID nineteen hospitalizations, but it's surrounded by states UM that are far worse and that that's pretty much dangerous sign and perhaps a sign of what's to come. Do. What are

you seeing and what are your expectations? So that's really a similar question that I and my colleagues have raised. Certainly know we're seeing some pockets of outbreaks, you know in Brooklyn and UH, some out in Long Island, UH and definitely a few more hospitalizations for COVID, but nothing like March and April. And we're certainly not seeing the huge surge that's going on in the Midwest and out west. And we ask, you know, why is this not happening?

And I think, you know, I'm guessing, but I think there are a few possibilities. One is, I think New Yorkers have been very meticulous and wearing masks outside of a few areas UM too. I think we've had a lot of patients who were second have gotten sick during really UM March and April, and we're seeing a lot of antibody positivity, a number of patients who either had

mild symptoms or sometimes severe symptoms. And I think the estimate is at least twenty of people at least in the New York City area that have positive antibodies, and we typically think HERD immunity is somewhere in the fifties, sixties seventy percent range. But I think when you have a large population that is antibody positive and there even maybe more than that because the antibodies fade and your

left with cellular T cell immunity. So I think there are a number of people who've actually had this UM and that's why I think we're not seeing it spread quite like wildfire as we're seeing out west and in the Midwest. But fortunately we are we are seeing a slight increase but not a huge increase in the number of hospitalizations. Do you think that's going to remain like this?

I mean, obviously you can't make predictions, but but given what we saw every Thanksgiving, the way that people were traveling, given what people's plans are perhaps for the Christmas holiday in late December holidays, I mean this this could go up. Yeah, Tim,

that's an excellent point. And we do expect, um uh, with sort of less social distancing over Thanksgiving and and and the December holidays, um that we will see a bump is certainly in positive cases usually too three weeks after after that time, So there's definitely going to be

a bump in the number of cases. Will there be a bump in the number of hospitalizations, probably somewhat, you know, Again, we do have to remember the vast majority of people who get this, certainly young people or people below seventy you know, may get sick, but they do fairly well. They don't all get um hospitalized. Now, if older people or people with lung disease, hypertension, obesity, ETCeteras, diabetes, if they've been exposed, and they really shouldn't be exposed because

they should know really to isolate and not socialize. But if they've been exposed, we do expect certainly a bump in cases. But I think New York has been so far the tries this area at least relatively spared because a lot of people have already um had it. But according to COVID, the COVID Tracking Project, single day case records are set yesterday in Vermont, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania.

I'm just thinking that's, like, as Tim said earlier, like everything around New York um DR Lesbader just seems to be increasing absolutely in those areas. You know, Vermont main Upper New England was really spared during the March and April time period. So I think we're seeing and this is what happened in nineteen eighteen. You know, there were areas of the country as it went around the country in these different waves that thought, oh gosh, we're going

to escape it. And of course they didn't escape it because this is what happens in pandemics. But my sense is we are not going to have anywhere near that same lethality as um is the Spanish flu in in nineteen eighteen. You know, we have vaccines that are going to be administered within the next few weeks um. But I do think those other areas that were not hit are having, you know, terrible surges. Hopefully they've had time to prepare, knowing what happened and knowing what they need

with personal protective equipment, dental lators. Hopefully they're prepared for that, and hopefully their population new you know, not to push the envelope if you're at risk, don't socialize, don't go out. I've got patients who literally have been in homes in Massachusetts for you know, eight months now only going out, you know, for shopping because they're afraid of exposure. Obviously not everyone can do that, but potensible people in those

areas hopefully have been isolating. Yeah, exactly. Hey, thank you so much. As always, stay safe, be well, and we'll talk to you next week. Dr Iain Los Beta, Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at n y U Land Going Medical Center. On the phone in New York City, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer on Bloomberg Radio. People

talk about the productivity that comes working remotely. Well, if I work seven days a week, you know, fifteen sixteen hours a day, I don't take any holidays at least for a period of time, I'm going to be more productive. But I think there's there's two access to that chart. One is certainly the productivity measured over longer periods of time. But I also think the other pieces creativity and what mindful of which I don't want to wake up as

a as a as a company. I don't want to wake up as an industry and have hollowed our skill sets out. All right, If you didn't recognize the voice that was City Group CEO Michael Corbett in a televised interview with Carlyle's David Rubinstein, host a peer to peer on Bloomberg Radio and TV that was at a Bloomberg invest Talks event that aired earlier today. Tim, I feel like this is gonna be. This is what everybody's discussing about working from home. Are we more productive? Less productive?

Will it continue? He obviously has some second thoughts about it. Yeah, and I only have second thoughts about it. I have first thoughts about it. Um. I think it's on a case by case basis, and of course it changes depending on what you do for work. Yeah, exactly. And it's a luxury to be able to work from home, right as we've seen right in the pandemic that a lot of people can't do that. This story, those comments by Michael Corbett, it is among our most read stories on

the Bloomberg and Jenny Seraine wrote about it specifically. She's financial porter at Bloomberg News. She's with us on the phone from New York City. Hey, Jenny on, nice to have you here. So Michael Corbett not holding back there, No, definitely not. And you know he's really been um, pretty much an advocate for getting his employees back eventually slowly um, but really hasn't been um, you know, saying that they would be moving towards the more permanent work from home structure.

So it's very consistent, but this is kind of a new tack the productivity questions. That was kind of interesting to hear from him today. I think there will be this balance though, between what it does to productivity and also what it does for when it comes to the real estate footprint of these companies, because they can save so much money, especially if if these companies do what Silicon Valley companies are doing, which is pay people less

if they leave Silicon Valley for example. Yeah, Michael, you know, that's a good point, Jenny, did Michael Did Corbett say, yeah, we're ready to have they made any changes in terms of real estate needs or it sounds like not because he expects everybody or wants everybody to come back. Yeah.

So they had actually been in the process of kind of shrinking their New York footprint already, and so I think they had already been on that, on that plan, and so this coming definitely accelerated that and and kind of helps them maybe consolidate a little bit more. But he did say, you know, probably not everyone will have been back in the office full time. It probably will allow us to think our real estate fook print um

in some way. But really really help back from saying that there was going to be some more permanent wide breadgets or about work at any group. Yeah, I feel like I'm hearing from more people, especially in the financial community, that their expectations are it's going to be him very, very different that there they won't need as much real

estate that they do anticipate that workers. You know, now we're nine months in Habits are hard to change, and people like the flexibility of being able to work at home. I wonder what the implications are of this, though, doesn't mean different things for team development and the way that people work with teams. Doesn't mean different things for the way that mentors work with mentees and are able to

actually nurture talent development of organizations. I mean, that's a really good point, Jenny, and I've heard that about the concerns, especially for maybe minorities and women who already have a tough time making inroads what that might mean for talent development. Yeah. Well, and Corbett brought that up as well, kind of noting that, um, he really wants to know what this will mean for

the creativity that people bring to their roles. You know, so much of what happens in an office is just those kind of random moments where you run into a colleague and come up with an idea and run with it. Um, which is really hard to create in this remote virtual environment. Um. So I think that's that's kind of what he was planting to do with that comment. Um. And another six thing is just one of offices look like, you know,

the group has been moving towards this open floor plan. Um. You know, is that really bople in a post pandemic wealth? I know, as we look at our open environment, like listen, that's been the rage, right, and like all of a sudden, everybody's like, ah, yeah, maybe we need some barriers here. I wonder though, how how how Corbett's position perhaps differs from those of his peer banks and those from his colleagues. What have you found at your reporting, Jenny, I think

it's definitely a mix. It seems like the of some in financial service tess who are more comfortable with like a scheme where employees may work from home three days a week and come in two days a week or vice versa. UM. But I really haven't heard a lot of books and banking talk about, you know, doing the more permanent everybody works from home forever. UM. It seems like there's there's some desires for either a mix or definitely feelings like getting everyone back. UM. There's also the

regulatory component. You know, banks are heavily regulated, UM. And you haven't heard much regulators on this point actually, UM, But historically they've definitely really focused on having you know, bless and seats as it were. I love this interview, and I know you went a couple of places, as did David Rubinstein with UM Corbette. But they also talked about when Wells Fargo got Wakoba uh and basically away from city group. UM. He addressed that, Yeah, it was

super interesting, UM. And really what's interesting about it is he talked about wanting that branch network, which is so fascinating. You know, in the middle of HIDEM when lots of banks are closing branches, the idea that he would still rue or wish that they had that big national branch

but branch um is kind of unique. So UM. Definitely a really interesting interview that Womens Bang had what about when it comes to digital banking and the way that people are banking differently, not just over the last few years, but but in the pandemic. We're talking to Joel and Bread earlier at Business Week and they had an executive form MasterCard on their list because of the way that

touched touchless payments just shot up in the last year. Yeah, I mean, it's definitely true that UM consumers have really

moved into roads to adopt mobile and online banking. UM and Corbet actually adjusted the fact that, you know, if they went out and said we're just we're just study to close every branch or we're ready to close you know, a lot more branches, a lot of customers would lead because even though they really like that mobile and online experience, is still has this weird desire to just be able to go in person and be able to talk to

the humans. So UM, even though they're seeing you know, lest foot topic and their branches, these those you still want to have that option because without it, they really feel like consumers would would get to the bank just don't lose my money, and I'm okay, I don't need to go into the branch. Like I can do everything on my phone and I'm happy. All I know is I need to go to the A T M. Twice a year, four twice a year. Yeah, that's it now,

it is right. You really don't need to go, all right, Jenny Seraine, thank you so much of a great weekend, great reporting. Jenny is, of course, finance reporter at Bloomberg News on the phone in New York City. Are you being serious or you're just like kidding? Is that what you do twice a year? This year? It will be twice just this year, but it is. I prefer not having cash. Yeah, I do too, but it's it's you know, it's not something that every everyone is accustomed to at

this point. But yeah, I mean, I think with the pandemic, a lot of people change the way they're handling money. I always think about how I grew up and my dad had the envelope of cash. It's like where every It's like how everything was duld? Did you at some point? I have to hide it from you? He had it from all of us kids. There was seven of us. He had a big time. Only my mom knew where it was This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. We just have a few minutes left

in today's trading day. Let's get right to our market gas. Time for the Drive to the Close with David Dietz, President and chief investment strategist at Point View Wealth Management seven point three billion in assets under management. David back with us on the phone from some of New Jersey. David, good to have you here. President Elect Joe Biden being you know, rather um, you know, kind of he said,

The job's report was graham. I felt like he was grimm to and just understanding the plight of a lot of Americans and the additional stimulus and aid that they need. How do you see it? And if we don't get that aid and the right amount of aid, what will that ultimately mean in terms of our economy and ultimately our financial markets. Well, absolutely, he was. It was appropriate to be grim because, of course, the jobs report for

November came in short of expectations. We still have an unemployment rate which is unacceptably high, So you know, that's the bad news. Of course, juxtaposed against that is some even better news in a way, because we've got terrif announcements from not just one but three vaccine producers giving US vaccines to have an efficiency rate, and some of that's going to be rolled up for the end of the year. So we know what the causes, we know the problem, but at least we're starting to see a

very bright light at the end of the tunnel. Nevertheless, it's not quite clear exactly when the population will build to get vaccinated. So for those poor people who are out of a job now or whose businesses on Main Street are going south fast, there is certainly a need

for aid. I wonder how though, you know this aid comes with the divided Congress, and what what the expectations are from investors right now, especially as we see Vice President Pence right now, you know, doing a rally in Georgia because that this balance of the Senate actually hangs in Georgia. Obamba has headed there this weekend, President Trump has headed there this weekend. What is the market expecting in terms of that that turnout and not turn out

with the result of the January fIF election. Well, certainly in the last ten days or so, Wall Street is getting more optimistic that we may see something before the end of the year may see something in the lame deck session. I don't know, to be honest with you. I mean, we should have had something two months ago. And the reasons we didn't get something now then probably plays into why we may not get something now, you know,

from a Wall Street perspective. From my perspective, it's almost like trying to buy a stock ahead of the earnings release. So you have these negotiations before we really know the composition of the Senate um. You know, the Dems may be better off waiting. If they capture those two seats, they may get a much better deal um later on in January, and and so there is a little political games and ship people don't really know what all the

cards are on the table. Nevertheless, is there time for that because Americans, as we saw with the jobs report today, they're struggling. You know, um every every week is important, and so many of these benefit programs do. And at the end of the year is I do think people sincerely want to get something done and whether people can agree on something that at least helps the American people

in terms of the unemployment problem. Let's hope certainly. The market, of course, with its focus six to twelve months ahead as we're seeing today, seems to ignore that it's looking much further beyond the current problem. Well, that's what I wanted to ask you. The market. Definitely it's a discount, all right. It does look ahead, and it does seem to be discounting any of the tensions and stresses and

rising cases numbers and rising hospitalization numbers. But if we don't get this aid package right now, might the market have to discount what's going on even further? You know, there's no question about it. Um You know, seventy percent American economy is based on consumer spending and is As bank accounts dwindled down and the outlook for jobs darkens, that's going to affect spending. But of course, what we saw back in March was never discount what policy makers

will do for us. So we have a big meeting from the Federal Reserve UH next week. What might they do. There's a chance that they say, look, we're going to keep the amount of bomb buying going, but we're gonna target longer maturities yield curve control. That could be a shot in the arm further for the market, for the big real estate market, and could be helpful and of course right if if things get really bad, then actually

the lawmakers may pass us temporary stimulus bill. All right, well still, well we will, we will certainly see what happens. David Deeds, Thank you so much, President and Chief Investment Strategies over a point view Wealth Management on the phone from Summit, New Jersey. Tongue twisted there, but you know, we know we need to get something done here. Thanks

so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News