The Blockchain Built for Good

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Over the summer, the blockchain ecosystem Topple raising fifteen million dollars in a series a funding round that's on top of a five million dollar seed round which happened back in so we want to talk a little about the business and what they're up to. Chris Georgia and the founder and managing director of Topple,

joining us from Houston, Texas. Chris, how are you? You're great? It's happy to be on today. Yeah, thanks so much for joining us. I I coinker a show called Crypto I r L and I still think there's so much confusion over what exactly the blockchain is is and what it can do. And in a recent episode actually talked

about this. I said that, you know, we've been hearing about the promises the blockchain for over a decade at this point, and consumers have yet to see a point in their lives it has actually gotten better as a result of this technology. Uh would you disagree with that or would you agree with that? Well, I would definitely agree with that. Um, you know, for a lot of people,

it hasn't become apparent yet. You know, we're starting to have some small use cases, you know, supply chain traceability, carbon credits, you know, starting to be tracked this way. But I think we all need to remember that blockchain came onto the scene from a retail perspective very early in its lifespan. You know, a I got started in the sixties, but I think none of us really heard about it until fifteen years ago. So blockchain is kind of had its coming out party in a very public way.

So remind our world, Chris, what you are doing specifically, and what kind of companies are you working with, and maybe who are your biggest partners or customers. Is at this point absolutely. So the way that we think about TOPPLE is we think of it as blockchain for sustainability, for positive impact or you know, to use an acronym for for e s G. And what that means is we're doing everything from tracking and tracing conflict free diamonds

moving around the world or fair wage agriculture. We work with energy companies and you know, big project developers to issue, track, buy and sell carbon credits. So we do a lot with powering the energy transition, and we do a lot to help clean up supply chains, you know, making sure that they're properly environmentally sustainable and also you know, following good labor practices as well. So dig a little bit deeper.

How do you do that? Because the big part, you know, you say es G and kind of the hairs in my neck perk up because I think we keep saying, or I certainly keep saying that E s G feels like it's going through a reckoning after years and years

of good performance in an upbeat market, a bullush market. Um, it's going through a reckoning where people want visibility, transparency and at our understanding, uh, and so tell us, how what are you what's your proprietary technology that helps customers make sure that they are complying by real E s G means if you will, absolutely, And the way that we think about how blockchain fits into this is blockchain

can be open, blockchain can be decentralized. And really one of the biggest problems with a lot of E s G claims is they're being assembled after the fact that a main corporate office months after something supposedly or hopefully happened somewhere out in a plant or out in the field. Well, blockchain technology and what we're able to do is get

data directly from when it's happening. So maybe that's taking inputs directly from SMS information from that what's SMS text messages for everyone, um, so you know, maybe farmers are text interacting with the system, or there's IoT or satellite

information that's being fed directly into technology. So you don't have kind of like an after the fact report being assembled, but you've got data being sourced directly from on the ground or where that impact is supposed to be happening, and that's being able to you know, relay direct to investors get more transparent access to it, or consumers get

more transparent access to it. Chris, this conversation reminds me of the way that we've seen Google Glass develop and the technology and heads up displays develop over the last well only in the sense of, you know, when this came out that Google had this video of you know, everyday people wearing these glasses and you know, a heads up display saying, you know, walking down a subway into a into a subway station underground and it's like, oh,

you know something pops up, subways closed, better go use another one, that sort of thing. But what ended up happening was, you know, consumers didn't want that type of technology, didn't like the way that they interacted with it. The technology was then used in warehouses and it's like caught up on the industrial side of things. Do you see that happening with with blockchain, Like, you know, something was promised to consumers, but it's actually more applica bull in

an industrial in an industrial space. I think the earliest use cases absolutely, you know, will fall into that pattern. And you know that's really the pattern that we're following as well. You know, it's it's right now, it's behind the scenes technology, it's powering applications and platforms that are all being built on top of it. UM. There's still

probably a long way that innovation that can go. And so you know, just like we might see Google lots or you know, a competitor make a reemergence once the technology is you know, ready to come back out of industry. You know, i'd say in the next two to four years, we'll see that on the consumer side or the blockchain as well. Hey listen, just get about forty five seconds left here, R Bloomberg. We care about this kind of stuff. You guys are raising money from investors, So what's been

the growth in your business top line? And I'm assuming you're not profitable yet, but you can clarify so some of this is kind of uh, you know still you know, private information. But you know, over the last year, we've on boarded about thirty different projects UM all across the world onto the platform. I think we're active with projects across five continents right now. Team is growing healthily. I think we've just on boarded our thirty five person UM. So it's also a great time to be hiring in

the tech space. So I've been really enjoying that as well. All right, Well, no slowdown? So that is it like double did you grass? Yeah? I didn't hear it? Pretty close that okay, well listen, good to know and uh, it's definitely a world that we're interested. Tim is all over it on his shoe. Watch our new show Crypto I r L Tonight eight thirty Bloomberg TV. Little Little Love. I like that. That's the that's the like fifth of

more plugs. Okay, I love it. Um our. Thanks to Chris of Course, founder imaging director of Topple here on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Do you want to get back to something we just talked about with our Mike mckeean. We're talking about this morning's jobs report.

Just a reminder the US labor markets staying strong. In September, the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the Fed on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest rate hike. Non Farm payrolls increased two hundred sixty three thousand in September after three gain in August. Unemployment rate dropped to three and a half percent. That matched a five decade low average. Really earnings rising firmly. Tim Well,

we like to turn to on days like this. Becky frank Witz, chief commercial Officer, President North America for Manpower Group. Becky joining us this afternoon on the phone from Chicago. Manpower Group, of course, a placement firm that works around the globe and has a really good understanding of what exactly is happening when it comes to jobs in this economy and more. Becky, good, good to have you back

with us. How are you hi, Tim Well? Thank you good? Good? So. Um, any surprises in the jobs report that we got, we know for the equity market, it's another good news is bad news scenario. Yes, I'd say, you know, first, we saw some softening, gradual softening month over month, which is actually good for employers. Tim. I know it sounds cow are intuitive, but a little bit of release of pressure in this really tight labor market is actually encouraging because

employers are hoping they can actually you know, fill some roles. Now. Um, A surprise earlier in the week is it quit rates. Quit rates prove that your job openings, you know, haven't dissuaded people from resigning. Um, even if we go into this holiday. So I would say that was a surprise at bit earlier in the week, and I think that you know, the no news is the news around wages. UM also was clear in the reports this morning. So what are you guys seeing at Manpower Group when it

comes to what companies need? Are they finding their need? Give us some color behind these numbers that we got from the government and what you guys are seeing in real time. Yeah, Carol, I'm so glad you asked that, because you know, the job's report is is a backward looking view. And so if you say, hey, what's going on today, Banky, what's going on the labor market today? I would say two big headlines. One is hybrid holiday.

So we are seeing retailers start to hire for what I call hybrid and my kids make fun of me because I said, it's it's I R L, you know, in real life. So we're seeing people want to shop in store, and therefore we're seeing roles associated store managers, service people in the inside retail. We're starting to see some some pick up there as well as continuing growth around you know, logistics, delivery drivers, etcetera, which really didn't show up in the report today, and so it's a

it's a bit more delayed. Um, so that would be one big thing that we're seeing. And the second thing we're seeing that it wasn't the report today is tech hiring. Carroll continues to robust, aggressive and apparently slow down proof.

Really that's so weird because okay, because we get so much anecdotal evidence, whether that's you know, Meta platforms, the parent company of Facebook, or you know, you just go and type in what ni job cuts in the Bloomberg terminal and there's headline after headlines, so much of them based in Silicon Valley. Are are you just using the term tech differently? Is more a more encompassing term. Well, it's about tech skills, it's not about tech companies. And

so you're absolutely right. The headlines are front of the big tech companies. Yet every company today is in some part of tech company, and so anything anyone who might have been impacted by Silicon Valley layoffs was rapidly picked up in either another industry or in a smaller company. And tchech Unemployment is still under one percent in our country, under one percent. You know, it's interesting. What was the

thing of labor hoarding. We were talking about where companies are afraid to let go of workers even if they're a little nervous about the outlook, because they just maybe they don't think they if we get a recession, it won't be deep. And so they don't want to let go of workers because they know how tight the labor market is and they don't want to have to scramble on the other side of it. What what can you tell us about what you are seeing when it comes

to companies and doing labor labor hoarding. Yeah, so, so I'd say that we're still in a post pandemic labor recovery. And I know, you know, we like to think the pandemic is roll over. Just now, supply chains are normalizing. You've seen the headlines around freight costs going down, containers you know, now being readily available, lumber going down, and so we're still in this post pandemic recovery. And in employers, memories are long and they remember for the last eighteen

months they've not been able to find talent. And so, yes, Carrol, we are seeing I love that term, by the way, labor hoarding. Um, we are seeing labor hoarding in some places because you know, employers are afraid if I let these people go, I may not be able to get them back in a few months when we all hope

the economy rebounds. Uh, can you give us some indication on I don't know how you're looking forward a little bit becky to understand what comes during the fourth quarter of the year and in Q one, because the excuse me him getting a little ahead of myself. The FED is certainly trying to figure out what happens there, and investors are as well. Yes, so I would say, you know,

holiday hiring is the weather vane. It's going to tell us what we're going to see for the rest of you know, at least the rest of this year, and also into the very first part of three. So that would be one, you know, one thing. So if we see so okay, so let me just make sure I understand this. If we see softness when it comes to holiday hiring, that could be a bad sign. It could

be a concern. You know, so far we're seeing I know you saw Amazon just announcer hiring a hundred and fifty people for the holl Day and so you know we'd see early signs of promise. But it's still early in the season, but that that is the weather vein that we should all keep our our eyes on. Um. I think the other is, you know, just the FED take action again and what impact does that have on the job market? And that's well outside of you know, my control. Are you concerned the Fed over does it.

They've talked about where the unemployment rate needs to be potentially in order to bring down inflationary pressures. Are you concerned that we will see maybe it's six months from now, maybe it's twelve months, maybe it's three months that we will see those unemployment claims to hire and a significant amount of people might be out of work. And just got about thirty seconds, Becky, Yeah, so I would say, Carol, I hope it's not significant. The labor market traditionally lags

the economy. It's lagging it a bit more. So I'm hoping the economy rebounds and the labor market has a short and shallow decline. Okay, I'm gonna leave it there. Hey, listen, Becky, have a great weekend. Good to check in with you, Becky Frankoments. She's Chief commercial Officer, President of Manpower Group North America and of Chris johan Elsa, she typically does on these monthly jobs data days, joining us on the

phone from Chicago. You know it's funny. I just I was looking at an eye job cuts and there's just so many stories. It's like, wait a minute, I don't understand. Um, the job market is so good. Why does so many people talk about layoffs? But the distinction that Becky made is so important? Right, tech jobs versus tech companies? Yes, yes, really important. Yeah. I think that could be a quick

take video. Sounds good, you want to do it. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get to Julia Pollock, chief economists for Zipp recruiter. She joins us once again on the phone from Los Angeles. We like checking in with her at least once a month when it comes to what she's seeing on her platform. Julia, how are you very well? Thanks? And how are you We're doing okay. It's good to have you with us

once again this afternoon. So when you saw these numbers this morning, wasn't any surprise to you? After all, you see what recruiters are looking for, and you see what job seekers are looking for on ZIP recruiters, so you have a good, you know, good idea of what's how opening in the economy. Was this a surprise to you? Not at all. This is right in line with what economists we're expecting, and vice line with what we've been

seeing on our website. While employers are becoming a little bit concerned about the future, outlook a bit more cautious, a bit more conservative, and they're hirings while they're reducing job openings somewhat, they are still hiring when push comes to shove because business conditions are still good and the consumer is still spending. So how do you cross this with um all of the talk about recession. Obviously, the

financial markets tell a very different story. Uh. And we did have a market guest who joined us earlier about I think what's going on in terms of corporate earnings that we've already had a corporate earnings recession, but we haven't had necessarily, yes, an economic recession. So companies who have had to maybe cost because of inflationary pressures are shown and so forth. You're saying they're reducing job openings,

but they're not letting folks go. Bottom line, that's that's what it's going to be, UM, and we'll continue to be that way. Yes, because though companies are reducing headcount growth but not reducing headcount, and that is sort of exactly I think what the said would like to see. They want to see that gap between job openings, the number of unemployed people seeking them close. It was more than five million a month ago. It's uh, it's shrank to four million in the most recent ULTS report earlier

this this week. Uh. And if that gap narrows, you will see people becoming a bit more reluctant to quit their jobs, a little bit less confident in the availability of alternatives, and that will reduce wage growth pressure a

little bit and also with its equation. UM. Want to ask you, though, do we get to a point where it's not just about reducing headcount growth but actually you say they're not reducing headcount now, but do we get to a point where companies are reducing headcount in your conversations,

do we start to see that? Well? We I mean, we are seeing the lave market split into two groups now, one group that's still adding jobs very rapidly and another group set of industries that are disproportionately affected by high interest rates. Uh. Those are industries like finance and insurance that lost thirteen thousand jobs in this report. UM building, material and garden supply stores lost six thousand jobs. Car

dealerships lost almost two thousand jobs. You know, the US consumers are not able to tap into their houses and use them as tiggy banks anymore the way they were last year. They can't just refinance their house to buy a new car or do some renovations on their home because they're they're two thirds of US mortgages are now below four percent, and two percent of mortgages only two

percent are adjustable rate mortgages. No one wants to jump out of that into a much much much higher mortgage rate, which we're a and we're seeing that play out in the housing market, Like you don't want to leave that that mortgage rate that sub four percent to buy something new. So it's essentially at a standstill right now. Hey, Julia, help us understand what this looks like in Q one three and what it looks like for the year the

new year. You know, and typically in situations like this, like how should we expect things to start looking when it comes to the layment front. Sure, so this job gain that we just saw two sixty three thousand is about five times what we would need to keep pace

with population growth right now. So we uh could see job gains slow gradually and continue to slow a little bit while the economy continues to add jobs across a broad set of industries and not just you know, low wage jobs, not just minimum wage jobs, but good jobs as well. Um, we will see some sexual pain. I mean there there are parts of the economies that are hard hit by rising interest rates and low stock prices

and a very strong dollar. Big tech, major enterprise companies, UM, many of them earn the majority of their revenue abroad, and so uh those non dollar denominated sales are hurting their margins. UM. But you know, the typical like main street business that buys inputs from abroad cheaply now and is getting all of its revenue here at home. Those

companies are still, by and large doing quite well. So, Julie, if I go to your website, I have the option of saying, there's a question what brings you here today? I'm looking for a job right now, I'm looking for a job, but no, Rush, I'm just browsing. Next. What do most people hit? Do you know? Yes? So, Um, you know, about half of people are looking for a job right away and they know exactly what they want

to look for. But there is a huge set of people who come to the website and don't know what they're looking for. They're they're just looking for a job, and that's why they come to us, because we can help match them two jobs that match their skills and experience levels. Um. Many people have no idea. Um. Uh, you know, the most common search on our website is a blank search and that that is exactly I think. Why mean a blank search where they just hit search

but they don't fill anything in. They don't they don't know what job titles they're looking for. Um, they're looking for a job, but they don't even know what's out there. They don't know the possibilities. Uh. You know, no one trains you to to search for a job. It's something you don't learn school. Many people also leave learning about looking at the lave market until it's kind of too late to match to get the skills that they would actually need to get a great job. Julia, When we

have twenty seconds left here. But what about employers are they are not looking for jobs to the same extent that they were, you know, just six months ago. Employers are are worried about the future outlooks. But business is still good and so they're still hiring and uh and that means they're great opportunity still. This is where we scratched our heads. It's just a crazy environment. Hey, Julia, thanks so much, Julia Pollock. She's chief economists ZIP recruiter

with us on the phone from Los Angeles. You get a job, you get a job, You get a job. That's what it feels like. I'm row a journal. Yeah, I bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This is good. Drive to the clothes on blue Bird Radio. All right, everybody, just about eleven minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up what has been

a wild, vaulatile week here in the trade. Having said that, I do want to point out, as we see stock selling off in a big way today, we're off our worst levels of the session, and we are still up nearly two percent on the Dow Jones Industrial average this week, up about one point three percent for the SNP for the week overall, and just holding onto about a six tenths of one percent gain in the past five days, but again seeing some significant selling in today's session, and

I will say that one reduced volume I think in particular for the SNP. Let's get into it with Brian Jacobson, senior investment strategies at all Spring Global Investments. They've got a little bit shy of five billion dollars in assets under management. Brian joins us once again on the phone from Milwaukee. Brian, how you doing? I have ye better than the markets. Okay, that's good that we don't tie you know how you're doing to markets, because that can be,

as we all know, a fool's errand um. But but how do you weigh in on what's going on here? Because at the start of the week we saw the two day rally that you know, it was the biggest two day rally that we've seen in two years, leading many to say, wait a second, Perhaps there was some short covering there, but also echoes of maybe a FED pivot.

We can throw that out the window now, right, Yeah, I think the FED pivot that's not going to happen until they take the blinders off, right, and I don't think that they really want to even contemplate changing their tune until they get the four and a half percent with the FED funds rate. So here at all spring my Systematic Edge multi asset team. We had our one of our many tactical calls this morning discussing kind of

doing a little debrief about what was going on. And I think that you know, Ned Davis was famous for a lot of his wisdom, the trend is your friend, and don't fight the Fed. But now you can kind of paraphrase that by saying, don't fight the trend because the Fed isn't your friend and the trend, unfortunately, is

towards weakness. Okay, in terms of the meeting you talked about having with your team, how much did coming how much did finding a bottom kind of come up in that discussion or nearing a bottom because the market was very, very oversold prior to the rally earlier this week. Yeah, and we agree that there was generally over sold in

we're expecting some bear market bounces. One of the challenges is just looking back at history and recognizing that most bear markets don't really end until recessions begin, right, And you know that's just been the history going back to the eleven bearer markets that we've had around recessions, and they typically and within a month or two of the recession starting now, I think you could look at earning

season and quarterly earnings. We've actually had two sequential quarters in a row of declines in SMP as reported an opera the in earnings. So maybe we already have a profit recession in the books. But the problem is is that we probably don't have the economic recession but broader one until some time in two thousand twenty three. So you're saying probably already an earnings recession, but not necessarily

an economic recession yet exactly. And we think that maybe this that's kind of what makes this time somewhat unique, is that the earnings recession maybe happened before the economic recession. And so then the question for us becomes one of how do you build a portfolio that's most resilient to

an economic recession. And that's where there's all sorts of wonderful divergences within the market, small cat and value Emerging markets from a valuation perspective look like they've already experienced those recessionary conditions, whereas other parts maybe not so much. And let me ask you, so, if it's an earnings recession already, why aren't companies letting go of more workers

that ultimately would show up in the labor numbers. Yeah, you know, I think the guys of how challenging it was to fill those vacancies, they might be a little hesitant to let them out exactly. So it's kind of the economic theory of labor hoarding, where it's one of the reasons why the labor market is a lagging economic indicator. You don't you really look at it for an indicator about where the economy is going, because you know it's costly to find someone trained them, and companies, you know,

they don't necessarily just want to let those people go. Um. And it's one of the reasons why it's a little uncomfortable to hear the FED talks so much about wanting to see more labor market weakness, because you're not going to see the labor market weakness until it's too late for the rest of the economy. That just means that you're already in the midst of the draw down of broader economic activity. What kind of scenario Brian is priced

into equity markets right now? You know, the way that we're looking at it is that the market is pricing in a fairly mile recession, one where maybe you know, there's a little bit more downside. Uh, We're expecting to see some more bear market rallies, some choppy trading, probably until the FED actually does begin to pivot, which isn't likely going to be until maybe third quarter of two thousand twenty three. So perhaps for the full next year we can expect to have this type of choppy trading

ahead of US. UH. And so we think that the market is well choppy all year. It's been tabu a year. But how much chopping this happens though? As again you try to find a bottom. And I guess I keep pushing this a little bit because if I look at you know, we're still on track for the best weekend stocks. If I look at the spire in the past month, is that a significant trade? Essentially? Yeah? Isn't that interesting that it's one of the best weeks but also one

of the worst days? And yeah, And and that is I think one of the characteristics of the finding a bottom, but it doesn't Just because you find a bottom doesn't mean that you have to rise from that bottom. And

I think that's the position that we're in right now. Okay, that's interesting towards that bottom, and it's just going to be that choppy trading until we do get a whiff of a FED pivot, which isn't likely going to happen until you know, they get up to four and a half percent and hold it for a while, in which you know is good for active traders and active managers like on my team, we do a lot of tactical traits and so it's a fun way to try to

add value, but it's not necessarily the most comfortable ride for strategic one term investors. So when do we start to see uh? I mean, it's it's interesting because it's if you say that, you know, if the FED pivot could be unlikely until we get up to four point

five percent, when do we get there? Because as Mike McKie has talked about on our air a lot, it's you know, as important as how long it stays at you know, the terminal rate true exactly, it's the entire contour of the path of rate Hypes and I think that's why the market maybe got a little excited on Monday and Tuesday, the idea that oh maybe we can only have to go up to four and a quarter and maybe they can begin to pivot mid two thousand

twenty three. But looking at FED funds futures today, now it's pricing in well, then maybe they want to get up to an upper end of about four point seven five, right, and hold it until towards the end of two thousand twenty three, And that seems reasonable. And it's that change in the expectation which you might see that as far as some more descents from some of the more devish members of the FED that maybe they've pushed things too far, too fast and they really need to take a little breather.

Just got about forty seconds left here, so you we can talk all the macro that we want, but ultimately the end of the day, right, you've got to do something for your investors, and they don't always love to just throw things in cash, although in this environment we know cash has been more interesting than as of late.

So what do we do with money right now? Brian? Yeah, well, cash is a wonderful investments as far as what the yield that you can get on it, and so our short duration strategies are doing quite well as a result of this increase in yields. But we're finding some really good opportunities longer term consumer staples, small camp value, emerging markets, especially those on the emerging market side with the focus on equity income. Uh and even just adding some of them.

Are worried about the strong dollar on the emerging markets just quickly, Uh, not really all that worried about it, because maybe we might be closer to the peak of the dollar as opposed to the trough for the dollars. So a lot of the pain is hopefully mostly behind us. All Right, we gotta run. Hey, listen, have a great weekend. Brian Jacobson, he's senior investment Strategies at all Spring Global Investments, four seventies six billion dollars in assets under management, on

the phone from Milwaukee. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News