Tesla Beats Estimates With Less-Drastic Drop in EV Sales - podcast episode cover

Tesla Beats Estimates With Less-Drastic Drop in EV Sales

Jul 02, 202432 min
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Episode description

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Ed Ludlow explains that Tesla's second consecutive drop in quarterly deliveries weren’t as steep as analysts were predicting, sending shares in the beleaguered EV-maker up more than 8% on Tuesday. Bloomberg Opinion Editor Mark Gongloff provides an update on Hurricane Beryl. Frances Katzen, Founder of The Katzen Team at Douglas Elliman, shares her outlook for NYC real estate. And we Drive to the Close with Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at the Carson Group.
Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Katie Greifeld. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 3

And now to one stock that is certainly surging today, Tesla up eight point six percent for a six consecutive day. It's the longest winning streak in about a year. This after the company reported deliveries for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. ED love those with us now he's co host of Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau. So ed better than feared? Is that the way to describe the decline in sales year over year?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean there's a mixed response. The stocks up significantly, I think on track for his biggest jump since April. But I would say there's a rain of response. There's those that look at this and say, well, it is a back to back sequential decline first quarter, second quarter in terms of a drop year on year in deliveries.

So it could signal that things are not great, but they're improving from where they were in the first three months of the year, or you can kind of look at it the other way, which is it's still a drop in deliveries year on year, and either you believe that delivering electric vehicles is the mainstay of Tesla's business, or you look at elsewhere and think you say, it's just not where Tesla's headed, and so we don't have that much concern about it.

Speaker 5

Ed, I've been waiting all day to talk to you about this. I hello, ED.

Speaker 1

So let's talk about some comments that we got from Jessica Caldwell. I know that you're familiar with her as well from dot com.

Speaker 5

She was basically talking about Tesla's limited lineup here.

Speaker 1

It has a pretty narrow lineup as compared to most carmakers, and she said, quote, we've seen the automaker exhaust its bag of by lowering prices and increasing incentives to spur demand without much success in the US market. So these numbers they were better than feared. But where does Tesla go from here?

Speaker 4

So, just in Corwell, it is an auto analyst that looks through the consumer lens, right, She looks at the marketplace for consumer cars, and so that is an opinion that's shared by many. You know, the model why at this point is several years old. They have a limited range of cars. Let's say you compare with a Volksbangen or a Toyota. Think about all of the different models that they offer and actually subplates, you know, both at the luxury end and at the base end. Tesla just doesn't

do that. So that's a cause for concern. The other problem is one that Elon Musk has already talked about that there's a lot of evidence that pure play battery electric cars are battling for the attention of consumers against hybrids. And many consumers right now where things are difficult, interest rates super high, and many are still not convinced about that the utility of an electric vehicle in their lifestyle. Hybrid's a great option. That's something you'll must have talks about.

So that may be reflected in these numbers as well.

Speaker 3

So, ed where does if hybrids are indeed the transitional vehicle that gets us and I'm talking about us as a globe to a world of evs eventually, how long is that transition? I mean, I actually know folks who had completely electric vehicles who traded them in for hybrids.

Speaker 4

Yeah, it's really tricky, I would say, like most estimates, including like Bloomberging Energy Finance right, which is our in house research arm that looks at the market for battery electric vehicles among other things, still see a massive jump from where we are today twenty twenty four to the proportion of vehicles on the roads that are battery electric in twenty thirty and twenty forty. We're still heading in that direction. The market for battery electric is not shrinking,

it's growing at a decelerated rate. But you know, you think about the average American family, it's the best use case to think of. Tesla is offering financing on a brand new Tesla vehicle at two percent, which is very competitive, but for many the product itself just doesn't work. Like if you have several kids, the only three row option out there right now is the Rivian our one else, which isn't selling brilliantly itself. It all comes down to

household economics and what's available on the market. And hybrids have had a real resurgence in the first six months of this year.

Speaker 1

And we have like a minute life together, and I need to ask you about the cyber truck. I actually saw one on the highway over the weekend, and I actually slowed down just so I could stay close to it for a little bit longer and just get a really good look. What's going on with the cybertruck? When are we going to get numbers around that?

Speaker 4

So we have some indicative numbers because of the recalls. You know, the cyber truck has had some physical issues. So the regulators tell us, at least in the US, like this is how many we record, so you can kind of do the math on how many have been delivered, and the answer is not that many. In many ways, it's a niche produc act. You know, the Tesla bulls would say, hey, you guys are wrong. The lineup's not stale.

They just introduced cybertruck. Look how wacky it is. But for many it doesn't resonate with the average buyer of any content.

Speaker 3

That's fair to say.

Speaker 5

You think it weighs about a million pounds.

Speaker 4

Yeah, yeah, so, but it's a fantastic vehicle. I actually get to drive it, you know, I've been in close proximity. But I think that's the question that for now, it's a niche low volume products. Hence why Tesla doesn't break it out as its own category.

Speaker 1

All right, why don't I either go to you or you come over here and we'll test drive a cyber truck.

Speaker 5

That sounds so let's do it.

Speaker 4

Yeah, if you're listening, it's a good idea.

Speaker 3

Hannah Elliott drove one. She loved it. It was in Bloomberg Pursuits a few months ago. She loves She is really cool. She is awesome. Hey, also awesome. Ed Ludlow, Coast of Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV, joining us from San Francisco.

Speaker 2

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Can't Just Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car Play and then Bright Auto with a Bloomberg Business at or Wann't just Live on YouTube?

Speaker 6

Change Well.

Speaker 3

Jamaica could be facing up to a billion dollars of damage as Hurricane Barrel durns through the Atlantic. It's the earliest ever Category five storm after devastating the Caribbean's Windward Islands. Girl's breakneck intensification into a major hurricane is a grim sign for the rest of the Atlantic storm season, which is still months away from its typical peak, and the latest indication of how extreme heat driven by climate change is triggering weather disasters around the world. We got with

us Bloomberg's Mark Gongloff. He's Bloomberg opinion editor who covers climate change. He's here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Mark. We talk a lot about how the stock market is not the economy. The economy is not the stock market. Weather is not climate change. Climate change is not weather, yet these things are intertwined. Please explain, Well, there have always been hurricanes, but the thing about this hurricane is that it is a kind of a freak, literal freak

of nature. That is the as you mentioned, the earliest Category five in history. The other the scary thing about it, maybe even scarier thing about it, is that it went from zero to category four in like less than two days, which has only happened like six previous times in history. And usually that happens in September when the ocean water is really warm. And so we've got this thing where, yes it's a hurricane, Yes hurricanes happen, but the ocean

water is like a bathtub. It's like September level hot right now. Part of that's al Nino again, Al Nino's happened, but the combination of El Nino and human made climate change has made ocean temperatures like almost literally off the charts hot. And so that is fueling this crazy storm.

Speaker 1

And so what does that mean for the rest of hurricane season If we're starting early, maybe.

Speaker 5

Will end early, maybe not? Or maybe will this just be super intense?

Speaker 7

Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to be super intense. Before it even started. The the number crunchers came up with forecasts for it that were like, again, like it was going to be a record season, thirty thirty big storms, seven major hurricanes which are like category three or above, and that which is more than like the usual like three and a lot most of those are going to

affect the US in some way. This one may end up affecting like Texas, and so it's the water's going to stay hot, is not going to get any cold cooler until like October November and so, and then this rapid intensification thing that we're seeing is another feature that we can expect throughout this season.

Speaker 2

Two.

Speaker 3

Unfortunately, one thing I think about a lot markets. It's not climate migration, which you've shared with us before, and the idea of moving from one country to another country as a result of what's happening in your in your own climate, which we're seeing right now certainly, or is the effects of what's happening with climate, but something that's

happening more local. The idea of not necessarily living in a part of the country because you're concerned about fires or hurricanes, right insurance rates in places like California, or being dropped by your insurance in California because of fire risk, and that essentially becoming a place for some people that's not inhabitable because they don't want to deal with that.

What happens first, do we start to see like a reversal in what we're doing as humans to slow climate change, or do we just right off these parts of the country that get hit over and over again.

Speaker 7

Well, apparently what happens first is everybody moves into those parts of the country really in a big way. Florida, Texas, Arizona, Phoenix, where it's like one hundred and twenty people are like cooking on the streets, are the fastest growing places in the country, and so a lot of people are moving there because it's cheaper. It's going to stop, it's already stopping.

That cheapness is already going away as they're discovering they can't maybe get a mortgage on their house, or insurance race or skyrocketing, or they can't get insurance at all, or they have to clean up. And so what you're seeing is some first we're going to see some maybe some gentrification of some of these areas where you know, if you're if you're wealthy, you're going to move to You're going to buy a house on the coast, and if it gets knocked over, you're gonna build it back

up again. One of the things we maybe need to do is to stop sort of subsidizing that. Like, if that's what you want to do, cool, go for it. You know, I love the beach too, But if your house keeps getting knocked down, we don't have to pay for to rebuild it. And at some point, I mean, I personally think we need to work on some sort of managed migration, some sort of managed retreat from some of these areas. But the market is sort of forcing us into that right now because we're not doing the

managed stuff. We're being forced to buy. You can't get insurance anymore, or your house is getting knocked down, that sort of thing.

Speaker 5

Let's talk about New Jersey.

Speaker 3

Oh, this is so near and dear to Mark's heart. I love to he loves New Jersey Transit. If you don't know this about Mark, he's got a real soft spot for New Jersey, I'm going.

Speaker 1

To take you completely at face value, and I want to talk about New Jersey. We were talking about the commute yesterday getting longer costler, and you wrote when it comes to New Jersey Transit last week is failing the climate test, and it feels like a lot of what we're talking about.

Speaker 5

I mean it's very local too.

Speaker 7

Yeah, well it's local, but it's also national because you know, it blows my mind. Tim is being facetious about my love for New Jersey Transit. As you probably guessed, it makes me crazy. It has put ten years on it's taken ten years off of my life. But it affects the entire country because there's this ten mile stretch between Newark and Penn Station that it has these wires, these electrical wires that were built around World War two, and it's.

Speaker 5

The only place in the country piece of history.

Speaker 7

It's a piece of history, and you can look out and gaze on it. When when your train is sitting there doing nothing for like three hours while you're waiting to move.

Speaker 3

Think Mark says, it's a piece of something.

Speaker 6

It is a piece of.

Speaker 7

Something, and this is a family show. I guess I'll say what it is. But these wires are ancient, and when it gets hot, they sag, and it gets they get tangled up in the trains, and then all the trains shut down. And there's a bunch of other nonsense like that there's a bridge that you have to raise and lower every time, like anything bigger than a sailboat needs to go through. All the traffic on the Eastern

Seaboard shuts down. It's bananas, and so they're working on that, but it's going to take a long long time to fix it. They're talking about like fifteen sixteen years to fix it, which again, in my opinion, just as not just as a New Jersey transit commuter, but just as somebody who's like, you know, this is the this is the biggest rail line. This is also Amtrak, So it affects traffic going from DC to Boston. You know, this

is a major artery. And if we're going to prepare for a world in which we maybe drive less, maybe burn less fossil fuels, we need better transit. And if we just want an economy that functions, if we want you know, productivity, we want people to come into this city and go in and out and just travel, then

we need to fix this much more quickly. I think one thing that might be frustrating to some people, Mark is that there's a huge economic part of this too, the idea that in order for a city like New York to be an engine of economic growth for a country and for a region, there needs to be really viable transit. And we haven't seen that necessarily from the agencies. No, no, we haven't. And it's a it's a big political ask

and I understand that too. I mean, my New Jersey transit train doesn't fill up your gas tank or put cereal in your and your cereal bowl. You know, people are worried about inflation, that sort of thing people have, but immediate economic concerns. The difficult thing, the political trick to to to turn here is to express to people just how much economic damage will happen if we don't

fix this stuff now. You know, if you don't invest in mitigating climate change in the next decade, the cost of doing so will double in the decades to come. And so it is a matter of and we're just bad at this. I'm bad at this, I'm bad at saving for you know, retirement, I'm bad at everything, you know, saving thinking about the future, thinking beyond what I'm going to eat for dinner tonight. But we have to start

thinking that way as a society. You know, how can we save money in the future by spending more now?

Speaker 3

Mark Onngoloff. He's a must read whenever he has a call him out. He's Bloomberg Opinion editor covering climate change. Joining us here in the Bloomberg Interactive at Broker's studio.

Speaker 2

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 3

New York's housing market facing the tightest squeeze in five decades, and little relief is in sight. A rental vacancy rate of just one point four percent is pushing the cost of living in New York City higher, and last month, developers filed the fewest permits in a decade to build new multi family buildings. Experts fear it all adds up to a bleak reality for for the most populous US city. Soon, New York may price out all but the very wealthy.

Someone who's got a front row seat to everything happening in New York City real estate is Francis Katzen. She's founder of the Kats and team at Douglas Alloman. She's back with us here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. How are you.

Speaker 8

I'm well, thank you for having me.

Speaker 3

Yeah, thanks for joining us. When Charlie was talking about the yield on the tenure, you were like shaking your head, yeah, because certainly mortgage rates follow the tenuere but correct. To be fair, a lot of your a lot of your clients don't take mortgages.

Speaker 9

Well, I mean we just saw a huge barometer about that, right. We saw the market from basically four million to four point nine ninety five go down fifty nine point two percent in May and then basically uptick to fifty seven percent in non movement, meaning nothing's happening. Every other segment has this sort of movement, but the tenure treasury I'll used to basically track the thirty year fix. Now we're

at seven percent on average. It's very stressful because the people that need that amount of borrowed leverage to get in to the upper movement, and there's an opportunity to get in much less can't make it happen. And that's the fifty nine point three percent reduction of non trading in that segment.

Speaker 8

Nuts.

Speaker 1

Well, when it comes to the people who are moving, I forget how many des there are, but divorce, death, diamonds, diapers.

Speaker 5

That's another one.

Speaker 1

Dis yeah when I get yeah, and then they buy a house, certain apartment or whatever. The people who are still moving, specifically in New York, I mean, are they moving.

Speaker 5

Because they have to? Are we seeing things loosen up on that front?

Speaker 9

Those are the only movements and they're far and few between because most are renting. That's why you're seeing a forty point five percent uptick in rental. It's the highest amount of Lisa's signed year of a year in like the six increase in like seven months.

Speaker 8

Nuts.

Speaker 9

So I think some are buying, but some are priced out or simply can't get their head around a seven percent versus a two and a half.

Speaker 1

I want to talk a little bit more about the rental market because I actually recently moved thanks. I was like two weeks ago. I had wanted to buy a year ago. I quickly discarded that dream, and then we found this this apartment, and the listing price or the price per month was just a little bit too high. So we said we'll pay you five hundred dollars less per month, and they said, okay, great as yours, which I was really surprised about. I know that it's just anecdata,

but what is the state of the rental market? I mean, it seems like rents are still going up, but then you hear stories like mine.

Speaker 9

Well, you're lucky thinking, I can say, because what we're dealing with is multiple applications that are cannibalizing.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 8

I just did it it for fifty East eighty third Street. We had seven.

Speaker 9

Apps and one is over five hundred bucks more. Actually we sold it. We rented it above the ask. The concessions are still very little. There's twenty seven point five percent more inventory now on the rent side, and I suspect because people don't want to take less than what they want for a sale, so they're basically converting. I think you're the anomaly. Honestly. I think there's such a

tight look. It's a double edged sword. It's like way of a price rental or who can help you get the hit to make the numbers work until there's a refit that takes place maybe at the end of the first quarter of next year.

Speaker 8

I don't know.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I will say I think we were lucky. I promise it's a nice apartment when we moved into.

Speaker 5

But Manhattan, oh yeah, pretty sad.

Speaker 9

Well, that's one of the segments that's sort of very interesting actually for opportunity.

Speaker 1

Well tell me more. I mean I already signed my lease and were moved in. But interesting in what way.

Speaker 9

Depending on how far east you are from the west side of the East Side, if that even makes sense. Yeah, there's a little bit more negotiability because I think that people want to be close to their commute, so there's a little bit less desirability and a lot of that product maybe not as desirable based on post war lowest ceiling, not particularly the main event. In terms of inventory, you're

competing with a lot more newer product. It seems to be a nice opportunity for family centric need next to schools to get in on the Upper east Side.

Speaker 3

Where are you seeing activity downtown?

Speaker 8

The usual Brooklyn? Oh my gosh on fire.

Speaker 3

Please keep going. I've been saying this for years. It's where all the cool people live.

Speaker 8

It really is.

Speaker 5

I think it's very that's popping relative to Brooklyn.

Speaker 8

I don't know.

Speaker 9

Going only, it's just it's it's exceeding price per square foot demand. People used to walk in and say, I want to look at West Village, Tribeca.

Speaker 8

And maybe Flat Iron.

Speaker 9

Now they're like they want to They'll do West Village and Brooklyn, and they'll do Green Point, or they'll do you know, Carroll Gardens, or they'll do Williamsburg whatever.

Speaker 8

But it's no longer this outlier. It's part of the day.

Speaker 3

I will say, walking around Williamsburg in this day and age is like walking around the West Village. Not in terms of not in terms of or maybe so in terms of retail, not in terms of the character by any means, but in terms of what retail is there, it's pretty incredible.

Speaker 9

It's incredible those those restaurants, the vibe, the indie feel of it, the independent nature of these stores. And in Greenpoint, it's cool. It's got it going on, and the pricing's only getting stronger.

Speaker 3

When your least expires. You can move to Brooklyn in two years.

Speaker 5

Absolutely not.

Speaker 1

I think I going to New Jersey after that. But I mean, after the second ND I'll tell you exactly where I moved. But I do want to clarify. I mean, we got a deal in this apartment, but I will say when we were looking around, maybe a little bit closer to the Bloomberg office, there were bidding wars for rental apartments.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 1

We toured one beautiful apartment and then we followed up later that night over email, and they said, tell us what you would be willing to pay, because everyone who saw today wants it.

Speaker 3

We like it was like best and final.

Speaker 5

Yes, best and final for a rental.

Speaker 8

Yeah, that's what happens.

Speaker 9

That's what's happening right now on all of my product Oh yeah, yeah, oh yeah.

Speaker 5

And I mean how does this end? I mean, how do things get better.

Speaker 8

So it's a really good question, right, It's like the chicken or the egg. I think that. So here's the dilemma. Right now, nobody is really buying.

Speaker 9

At the same pace that they did in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, right, So there's this inherent opportunity to get in at a wholesale price and really buy up. The big issue for most is how to tolerate that really high carry. So my advice is you don't want to be buying when everybody else is buying because there is no inherent value to that. You're basically

paying upmarket pricing based on supply and demand. So you can refy, and you can always refight, you can't refinance the purchase, and so the refi becomes the play how long do you have to carry that higher number? And to me, that's the inherent value I've heard.

Speaker 3

I've heard higher for longer in certain places, mainly this studio and from J. Powell and company.

Speaker 5

Out on the street.

Speaker 3

On the street are talking about in Brooklyn, No, we don't talk about it in Brooklyn. Before we let you go. I'm curious about where people move when they do list apartments with.

Speaker 8

You where are they going out of here?

Speaker 3

Like New Jersey, Like Katie said.

Speaker 8

Not necessarily, We've got people.

Speaker 9

Yeah, I mean some of it is New Jersey, some of it is Florida, some of it is going to be in west Chester. I mean, it's like they want to get out of the city. These are people who've had their run and they want to cash out, or they're at a time in their life where they don't want to do stairs anymore. Literally, big you know finance players who just were like, I've got too much real estate. I want to size down, but I want to take a rental and stand near my kids in the city.

Speaker 8

But I'm going out. I'm going to go get something somewhere else that's interesting. I wasn't that specific on that one because they're all so different.

Speaker 1

Specifically stairs though, they don't want to go up and down the stairs.

Speaker 9

Some very interesting Yeah, we're getting to the point where we don't want to do that. Yeah, And they're perfectly fine, but.

Speaker 3

It's not I feel like young parents too, who left strollers up and downstairs. They do that for a little while.

Speaker 8

And then they're like, so the townhouse is gone.

Speaker 1

Actually yeah, yeah, the townhouses they're beautiful from the outside.

Speaker 8

But in terms of practicality, don't leave your keys on the top floor.

Speaker 3

Yes, hey, France is always good to see you, really nice to see for joining us. That's Francis kats And of the Cats and Team. She's the founder of the Cats and Team over at Douglas Element.

Speaker 5

Mac the Journal.

Speaker 3

How about you let me drive?

Speaker 4

No, no, honey, please, gravel, I want to try.

Speaker 9

It's good question.

Speaker 2

This is the Drive to the Globe on Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 3

Well, we just heard the numbers from Charlie Palette and Bill Maloney. The dal hired by four tenths of one percent, the S and P five hundred hired by happy percentage point, the Nasdaq hire by seven tenths of one percent.

Speaker 5

You lead with the Dow.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'm just in order.

Speaker 5

Yeah, you guys do things different over here.

Speaker 9

Now.

Speaker 3

I don't always lead with the Dow.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 5

I always lead with the S and P five hundred.

Speaker 3

Well, well that's pretty cool, Katie. Yeah, you're in our house now.

Speaker 1

I start large and then I go small. Russell two thousand is what I typically did.

Speaker 3

Well, what are your thoughts on the market today? On the trade?

Speaker 5

Uh, you know what I'm gonna say, it's pretty quiet out there, you know.

Speaker 3

Uh seen volume down absolutely.

Speaker 1

I mean this time yesterday volume was a little bit actually above average. And I think that's the last day this week that we're going to see that because things quiet down from here theoretically.

Speaker 3

Okay, well, let's see what so new Varghesese has to say. Sony's a vice president and global macro strategist at the Carson Group. Sony, it's good to have you with us for our drive to the clothes. How are you good?

Speaker 6

Thank you for having me. Awesome to be here.

Speaker 3

Thanks so much for joining us. What do you see out there beyond this week? I mean, certainly, I think it could. It's fair to say it could be a quiet week when it comes to trading, not so quiet when it comes to economic news and FED speakers. But as you look at the fifteen percent rise that we've seen in the first half of the year, what does the second half parten?

Speaker 6

I think momentum is one thing, So momentum begets. Momentum is like what I like to think of. Oh, I like to think about markets, and we've had a lot of that. Right from Q four of last year into Q one, we had a bit of a bertle in April, and then things came back. I mean, what's one thing that's happening is the market's gone up, but it's gone

up on the back of earnings too. Out of the fifteen percent gain over the first half of the year, more than half, a little over a half has come from earnings growth and diffidends, right, So about seven to seven and a half percent, what's another point eighty basis points or so has come from diffidence growth, and so I think that's what powering markets hire. And next week we start again with earning season. One thing that's interesting is forward earnings expectations have been rising and on the

back of margins too. Margins have been a big part of that. I think that's what continues to drive the market higher.

Speaker 1

So I definitely hear what you're saying that you think about the fundamentals, you think about the earnings picture, and it really helps justify what we're seeing at the broad benchmark level. But you think about forward earnings expectations, I mean, when do expectations just get too rosie? When does that bar just get too high and you start to see companies actually start to disappoint.

Speaker 6

I think companies are good at playing this game at the expectations game too, right, So as we get into earning season, just before earnings, you can see that maybe forward expectations tamp down a little bit and then it sort of slows down. One thing that's kind of been surprising over the last four weeks, really really since the end of earning season, forward expectations have actually gone up

even more so. One thing I'm watching is do companies come in and say, wait a minute, you know you're stretched a little too far, analysts all of you, and maybe pull that back a little bit, right, So, because at the end of the day, I think companies write me expectations on the earnings call on the day of the earning so I think they know how to play that game. So I think from that front, it'll be

a gradual shift if anything, if at all. Right, we just may not see a continued ramp up in forward earnings expectations that we have seen, but I don't think they go down unless Look when nomenal GDP growth is running around four and a half to five five and a half percent, you know that's a strong backdrop for earning scroll.

Speaker 3

Okay, from earnings, I want to go to the labor market. Because we've got Jolt's Job Openings labor turnover survey results today at ten o'clock. We actually saw that come in higher than estimated. It's a little bit of well, quite a bit of strength in the labor market. Not entirely fed friendly. How are you looking at the labor market?

Speaker 6

I think it's more I would characterize the Joel's report. I mean you look at openings of the total story, the totality of openings, hires, quits, layoffs, all of it. It was a bit of Actually, yes, openings went up to about just over eight million, but otherwise it was a bit of a snoozer, wasn't it. With hires didn't move it moved up to three point six percent. The hiring rate, quits were the quick rate was around two

point two percent as well. Layoffs remain really lower on one point five one point six million, one percent as a percentage of the employed workforce. So more of the same. I think one thing that we're seeing is hiring is ease a lot right from last year and even let alone two years ago. But one why is net employment? Ye,

it's because separations are low, wits low layoffs low. I think, like palels that today in CenTra that the labor market as east has cooled off, but it's happening gradually, right, It's not happening suddenly. That's a good thing, so that keeps them on track. At the same time, I think

they are aware bring the FED back into this. They are aware of the double sided risk, right, the risk that they don't act and the labor market weekends even more and that becomes a snowball and avalanche eventually, versus the risk of undoing all the gains they made on inflation so far. So I think they're aware of both sides that And.

Speaker 1

Just a little quick point on the Joel style, I thought it was interesting you bring up the quits rate. It's been two point two percent for several readings in a row, so it's been interesting to watch that line pretty much do nothing but zooming out a little bit. Of course, we're talking about the labor market, we're talking

about the economy. And that follows our conversation on earnings, and I'm curious, from where you're sitting, what is this market response to Are we really just paying attention and being driven by those corporate earnings or is this still a FED driven a macro driven market at this point.

Speaker 6

Between Q one and Q two, I would say it was definitely in response to response to earnings, because earnings have come out so strong, especially if you look at Q one. At the end of Q one, the SMP was up about ten percent. Most of that, about seven percentage points came from valuations. You can think of that like sentiments, right, and three percentage points are thereabouts from earnings growth. Now fast forward one more quarter, the SMP

is up about fifteen percent. More than half of it has come from earnings growth, right, So it was an earning stroth, and I should mention margins too that powered that. Now again, not to ignore these things are all correlated, right, It's not like earnings is happening in a vacuum and the economy is doing something else. Now, the economy is

also doing fine. You're seeing this inflation too, So I think markets are expecting the FED too, you know, drop rates on the back of those disinflatory trends, which I think the FED probably got hooked a little bit by the Q one data. But as Powell said today, you know, the disinflationary trend is back on. I mean, I don't you know, from our perspective, I don't know if we ever got out of the disinflaciory trend. It was just for various idiosyncratic reasons that Q one inflation came in part.

But you know, we got to follow what the FED says, right.

Speaker 1

All right, Yeah, that's really interesting, and we didn't even really get to the politics of it all. But unfortunately, I think we're gonna have to leave it there are thanks, of course to so new of.

Speaker 5

Our geese, of the Carson Group.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, a little Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live week day afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also want us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

Speaker 1

M

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