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Look, it was the week of the IPO of the largest IPO this year, ARM, and it went off pretty successfully, shares rallying almost twenty five percent yesterday, but they're down about a percent and a half today, so twenty two percent higher than the fifty one dollars per share price that they set for the IPO. Now. Launching a successful IPO was also important for the parent, soft Bank, which had bought the company in twenty sixteen for thirty six
billion dollars but had had flameouts like we were DoorDash. However, SoftBank did leave a whole lot of money on the table. Bloomberg reporters Ryan gould Amy or Ian King wrote a play by play of how the final day wrapped up and why it matters. Ryan, I'm pleased to say joins us now via zoom Ryan, thanks so much for joining us. ARMS ipo was, by your reporting, ten times oversubscribed. I believe. How did bankers settle on fifty one dollars a share?
Jess, thanks for having me. It was quite the week it turned out, particularly that final pricing meeting. I mean, all being said, I think probably what ended up happening was a fairly normal meeting. Bearing in mind obviously as we say this was a soft bank. IPO Massa probably felt that there was much to sort of write the record on, given what had happened with a few of
the other names you mentioned at the top there. But yeah, you know that that Wednesday meeting, that was something that you know, there was the case laid out for sort of fifty two dollars a share, there was the case laid out for fifty one dollars a share, and ultimately it was left to to to son Tanessa to decide that actually he wanted to play this one safe, play it smart so and might argue and leave sort of basically one hundred or so million dollars on the table
by choosing the fifty one a share. That being said, you know, fifty one dollars a share was still the top of the marketing range. This is something that you know, he felt could set the company up for success come yesterday, Thatursday it started trading, and you know, as you mentioned, we're still up to twenty two percent on from yesterday.
So I think he's probably looking towards you know, today being Friday, at the end of the week for trading, you know, they've really they're they're in a good position. I know that the arm the armed folks will be will be feeling good as well.
Especially when you were thinking about this year's biggest IPO, when we're looking ahead to what this can potentially mean
for other IPOs coming down the pipeline. It's been so challenging, especially over the past year obviously the correlation when you think about what was happening with the Fed's most aggressive hiking cycle in decades, what is it shaping up like do you think moving forward in the near term whenever you're speaking with your sources as far as what this means for other companies that could potentially go public.
Now, yeah, I mean, make a mistake, this is this is a huge event for the rest of the market. I don't think we're in a position just yet where we could say, you know, the floodgates will open, but certainly through the end of this year, through the end of twenty twenty three. We're in a position that now you could probably start to see premium assets, you know, marketing names coming out and thinking okay, well we'll we're
going to push push the button. I mean, just to name one, you know, birkin Stock, the German footwear maker, they are, they filed, they are looking to go probably you know, we could see them setting a price range later this month. People know Berkinstock, people will know how you know, the their heritage, their their brand, and they feel confident enough. And I think, you know, seeing arm getting up to such a great start yesterday and today in trading, it's it's a boon. It's definitely a shot
in the arm. That being said, not every company is going to be able to come out and think, you know, this is the time for them. There many sources are saying to me and others that you know, twenty twenty four, the first quarter of twenty twenty four, as soon as you get that sort of full year audited results, and probably no later the end of February will give you a better chance so you can put audited results in
front of potential investors. On the virtuo versus the nine months that you would only be able to provide as of now. That I think should give some investors as well, you know, much more comfort to think about. You know, Let's see how ARM plays out, Let's see what happens to working stock once it starts trading. And obviously I haven't mentioned yet Clavier or Instagram right popular trade next week, So yeah, I mean, obviously I would caution and say that,
you know, ARM is you know, Instacart. It is clearly not like on and Clavio is not like Instacart. So you know, when you're thinking about these things, it's all a little bit relative, and I do think you have to be a bit cautious. But there are some good signs that in the next week we could be in a position where three IPOs in you know, in a fortnight could could get off to you know, Aurora.
Yeah, and it's not like every soft bank ipo has always done extraordinarily well, even you know, if they had a bit of a share pop on the first day. You know, you have been reporting on Instacurt as well. I believe you broke the news that the company was raising its price range for its upcoming IPO, which may it sounds like price on Monday. What are the big questions that you're asking your sources right now around how this IPO is going to go.
Instacart is interesting one, and we you know, we reported this morning that they are looking to price Monday, price Monday evening, start trading on Tuesday. Much of the question in I think around Instacart is not so much around the business model. It's more around, you know, as an ipa process like this unfolds, how are companies and their executives And perhaps in other cases sponsor backer is thinking
about pricing. Just how aggressive can you be on valuation in a very sort of valuation sensitive environment, Just exactly how far can you push the boat and not sort of scare off investors Because I think when you think about going on a road show, you're wanting to say you've already identified maybe one hundred or so accounts that you absolutely want in your book. I mean, there are always going to be instances where your top five, top six, maybe one or two of those won't actually agree to
come in. So I think it's a case of thinking about how can we please as many people as possible. One of those things is not pushing the valuation too hard. It's clearly a sign of strength in Instacart's case that they are able to come out this morning with that two dollars hike to the range. It was always sort of seen as an opportunity even the beginning at the road show last week that you know, perhaps it was very attractively priced. There was perhaps some little riggle room,
and clearly they taken advantage of that. But I think as a collective sort of set, when we look at this IPA window that we're currently in through to the sort of Thanksgiving period, the massive question is around how far can you push pricing just given how sensitive investors
are in this higher rates environment. You know, perhaps with anticipation of a softer landing into into next year, you know, we'll we really don't want to be thinking about scaring off investors even further or again from from IPOs right, and.
I mean especially with a consumer that may fray. I mean, isn't that what we've heard all earning season? The consumer could fray a little bit here?
Yeah, exactly. I think you know, even even there are in Instacrat's case in arms, you know that there was there has been significant interest even from retail investors, so to speak. And when you think about ARM yesterday was one of the sort of most highly tracked stocks. New stocks are on Fidelity. I mean people are wanting to get in on this as well in regards to you know,
the actual spending of it. Yeah, Birkinstock has just put out of advice filing today with the nine months and with nine month results is through September of this year. It did not come with a price range. But you know, things are looking rosy. I mean it must be said that you know things are looking rosy, and you know they're hoping to get into a position by the end of this month where they could be pricing before pricing and trading before Columbus State.
All right.
Ryan Gould us IPO reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us on zoom from New York City. Always a pleasure getting your perspective on all things IPOs and especially with shaping up when it comes to Instacart and these others that are coming up shortly.
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I don't know about you, but whenever you are in a particular checkout online, depending on whichever retailer you're using, do you ever abandon your cart? Do you keep thinks?
I don't abandon it? Okay, I have to say my Amazon cart is like enormous to other retail at least it stays some other retailers. You know, I put stuff in the cart, I don't click out, and then I'm like, wait, I spent all this time looking for.
Some right, and so I do something similar. Especially when I'm on Amazon too. There's things that I'm sort of eyeballing, but hey, maybe if it drops in price, maybe if it's Prime Day or going too the holidays, I'll keep it. But there is a company that's trying to remove that friction when it comes to retail and it comes to
that checking out dynamic there. And who better to chat with us about this than Madu Kuavilla, CEO of Bolt And it's a payments platform in company, and he's going to talk to us about how AI can help the challenges that are facing the e commerce rule. He's actually joining us on Zoom from Seattle. It's great to have you back in speaking with us again. For those who haven't heard you yet on our program here talk to us about what Bolt is and what it does.
Great to be back here. The problem you just mentioned, which is people come to an e commerce site, brows around and end up not buying something, and that is such a huge problem, Like around ninety eight percent of shopers coming to a site does not end up buying something. So Bold is simplifying that process and make it efficient so more people coming to the site end up buying.
How many retailers at this point use Bold?
We have hundreds of retailers using Bolt, and if you look at the last year, we historically have been very focused on small and medium business and we introduced our enterprise product last year, So now we have very large enterprise retailers using our product. For example, Revolve they start using Bolt last year. I worked closely with their leaders. They introduced both and they saw a four percent increase on revenue just after turning off Bolt.
So we know that AI is all the hype right now in so many different industries that it touches. What is it particularly about AI that you think can be used to solve the friction between the issues when it comes to shoppers that might be abandoning some of their cards and the retailers on the other side that are trying to build some of that brand loyalty.
Yeah, AI, as you can hear from the industry, there's a lot of progress happening from a technology perspective, and commerce E commerce especially is a great place to get a ton of value.
From the A side.
First and foremost, you think about if you can recognize a shopper the minute they come to your website, and if you can recognize them, can you provide a very personalized experience for that shopper and make great recommendations? And once you decide to buy something, can we make that buying process very easy and simple, avoid any kind of
fraudulent charges, and make that whole process complete. So from a bold perspective, what we are looking at is the root of making all those things possible is knowing the person, like, can we identify the shopper so you can provide all
this great experience. So what we are focused on both is creating this large shopper network that we can track the shoppers across different brands, especially the large brands and help the brands to identify them so they can provide this great personalized experience using the power of AI and maintain a lifelong relationship with well.
I understand you just recently hired a new president new CTO and you have some new big tech initiatives for e commerce for checkout kind of in the lineup. Can you talk to me about what you're trying to do that you weren't doing before.
Yeah. So, as we moved into the large enterprise retailers, what we realized is, you know, helping people at the checkout is great, but recognizing the shopper throughout their shopping journey is so important. So we are looking at the identity for e commerce across the board and using that identity to power the new capabilities like AI. So as we were looking at the new roadmap and technology, it was important to bring in like people who have done
this before and have a ton of experience. So couldn't find anyone better than cal Rahman, who drove a lot of airly growth that Amazon and Walmart when they were trying to get into e commerce, and he is going to help us drive our vision forward on building one of the largest shopper network for e commerce, and then building that identity platform which will power all the AI capabilities for the commerce world.
Whenever you're tracking this, are you able to pull shopping behavior in a sense to see how Americans are spending?
I mean, because we are able to see the actual shopping as well as their buying behavior. We are able to see a lot of data that allow us to see some of the trends and.
What I'm curious about though, the reason I ask I want to know what do you think that tells us about the economy? Because so many people talking about the consumer and what it means and looking forward and they're thinking there's going to be a pullback. Are you actually seeing any of that?
Well, even with all the views on how things can go down, what we're seeing is there is a continuous improvement on the e commerce side. Like you, there is more sales, but the price is increasing. Now the question is is a more sale coming from the increase in price or is it more people are buying. And when we look through the details, what we find is it's more sector based or category based. In certain categories people are dropping more, while some categories they are seeing less
than what they saw during the pandemic peak. But one thing is very clear is consumers are still focused on deals and discounts. So there is a real high focus on that, and so the retailers who are able to meet understand that consumer behavior and provide them very targeted response or deals are seeing obviously a much higher volume than others.
Can I can ask you a little bit about just what it's like being a techt startup at a tech startup right now, what are you seeing in terms of well, it's been a difficult year or two probably what are you seeing now? Just give me a lay of the land as someone who's had to deal with a tight labor market but also potentially had to lay people off in the past.
I mean, it's a little bit about you back to the basics on how do you define and find sustainable growth and how can you have unit economics when you drive that growth, So really focusing on where that growth coming from. For example, for both, we found that our growth is coming from our new enterprise product helping our brands, and we found immediate market success on that product. And hence I mentioned about the Revolve case study, clearly demonstrating
our products are working so we had to prioritize. We had to shift our priorities to things that are really working and clicking in the market, and then deprioritize the things that didn't really yield the results.
What we thought.
And then it comes to like having the right people and the right talent around YouTube right that vision forward, and it all comes at the bottom line is and I spend an enormous amount of time to work closely with the customers and really understanding what matters to them, what are some of the top problems they have, and then aligning our product roadmap so we can work closely with them and deliver results for them that is what they are looking as.
So we only have about a minute left, But what's your view on sort of the future of AI and how it impacts this business.
I mean, there are you know, few two top things that a lot of retailers top of mind for retailers, one is root turns and one is like omni channel, Like a lot of people are buying online and picking up at store, and so when I think of AI, there are very tactical applications on like if you know the consumer, if you know their behavior, how can you help reduce some of the return problems, or how can you target and your customers better at a very deeper
level so you can understand how much they are buying online, how much they're on a pick from store, and then providing them very targeted experience from that. But a common component if you look at both of this is knowing the consumer. So to do any kind of personalization, you got to know the person, and so at both we really focused on knowing that person, building a consumer network, and then empowering the data to bring some of that AI capability for retailers.
All Right, Madu Curravilla, CEO of payments company Bolt, joining us to talk about how AI can help the challenges facing the e commerce world. Always a pleasure speaking with you, and thank you so much for being back with us. But really interesting conversation someone, especially when you think about what we were talking about when it comes to us leaving some of our favorite items there in our shopping carts.
Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Well, the COVID nineteen pandemic may be over, but unfortunately the virus hasn't vanished. Earlier this week, the CDC signed off on new vaccines from Maderna and Pfizer Beyond Tech for people ages six months in older. Major pharmacies, including CBS and Walgreens are already offering appointments for it. Jess, you you haven't gotten a vaccine in a while, have you.
It's been a little bit, but I definitely have gotten probably at least four or five when you conclude all of the boosters. But I feel like it's time for another booster soon as well as a flu shot.
Well that is the question, and we have doctor Ian las Bader, a clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langgone, joining us to explain. So, so, doctor, you know, the CDC recommended, and I'm quoting here, everyone six months and older get an updated COVID nineteen vaccine for the sake of hypothetical. Say you're young, healthy and maybe thirty something, and you know got some shots, all the shots that you needed two three years back. Does this mean you have to get another vaccine.
Now, great question. You know, all of this is coming up because we are seeing a sort of a mini surgeon increase in the prevalence. You know, really over the last six months of COVID, slight increase in hospitalizations, but
the good news is slightly decrease depths from COVID. So to your question, the majority of people in the United States, either because they've had COVID, whether they knew it or not, and or because they got vaccinated, have the antibodies and probably T cells, which really explains why we're seeing perhaps
really a decreased death rate. So although the CDC did advice or did suggest that over six months of age would be appropriate, many other countries really are saying they should be targeted to specific groups, like over sixty five. And as also you're eluding, because we do see some side effects, some adverse effects that are not tiny. Perhaps the question is should we target the populations And I think everyone agrees above sixty five lung disease, pregnant women,
you know, people who have compromised states. Definitely young healthy women such as Simon and Jets or we think healthy and certainly young men where we do see an increased incidence of myocarditis and some other side effects. They may not really need this as a priority. Certainly, again just for that older age group, certainly over sixty the RTSV vaccine respiratory and social virus very common cause of hospitalization and morbidity. The new vaccine recommended flu shot. You know,
the efficacy varies year to year. Some years they hit it right, some years it doesn't work so well. But certainly that seems to be safe and reasonably effective. You know, a low incidence of side effects. But answer your question directly, if you've had COVID or if you've had a vaccine, the benefit of this new XBB variant, which was kind of the formula that was developed, is really sort of an older variant. We've had a lot more variant since then.
And how well the new vaccine will protect against BA two point eighty six and EG five and so forth a little unclear. If you're older, definitely you should take it. If you're young and healthy, I would read about it, think about it, maybe talk to your doctor.
What about when it comes to the flu shot, Should you get both of these at the same time? Do you space it out?
How does it.
Work right, So all of these things are targeted to when we think there's going to be a surge. Typically colder weather, people are indoors, no fresh air, you know, so ideally if you can get lots of fresh air, exercise, you know, some sunshine, plenty of rest, your immune system is better. So the timing really is sort of end of September, you know now to end of September bedding at the beginning of October would be very reasonable to
get these shots. I would say, FU shot you know now for the next month or so would be helpful. RSV so far we think is maybe not yearly, but like a one time shot maybe next year a booster. I would wait a couple of weeks in between. We definitely see more side effects if people take two or three shots at the same time, much higher risk of problems. There's no need to do that. It is a little bit more of a time and convenience to come back every couple of weeks. But if it were me, I
would not take them all at once. I would do them sequentially.
Right, and so as getting sick, that's a time inconvenience I think certainly, as well as a health inconvenience. Look, you know, the emergency, the health emergency that was in place for a very long time expired in May. As I understand it, is it going to be challenging to make sure a large part of the population gets the vaccine, you know, under these new post pandemic circumstances.
I'm seeing in my patients, which is obviously anecdotal, I think there is a bit of vaccine hesitancy. I think people who've had the vaccine realize they've gotten COVID maybe milder and probably less hospitalization, So there's some benefit. And I think young people like yourselves, you know, raise the question do I really need it? There's definitely some vaccine hesitancy.
But patients who have underlying lung disease, diabetes, overweight or elderly, or if they're traveling many people are traveling in Europe, you know, trapped on a plane with three hundred people, you know, there probably is some benefit to a couple of weeks before you travel to do that. You do get a bump in antibodies, which is good. Those do wane over a few months, so you know, maybe by January or December, those antibodies may be lower, So there's
definitely some protection. I don't think we can say yet how much, but I think if you've had COVID or had prior vaccines, your risk of dying from COVID again if you're otherwise healthy, is pretty low.
We have about a minute left. I'm curious because I've had a number just kind of anecdotally where people have been traveling overseas that have obviously been starting to get COVID more often. What's your sort of take as we head closer to the holidays, in the traveling season for the holidays, as well as far as what variants are out there at this point.
Well, there are many variants. Some of these have like thirty amino astra changes that are probably fifteen or two any different COVID variants. And that's the problem with a vaccine that's a monovalent like it can probably help, but it's certainly not going to target these. I talk to people about Packslavid, which is a pill. Again, you have to talk to your doctor, depends what medications you're on. The them have to be stopped like Statn's, but pax Slavid is great if you get COVID if it's more
than a mild case. It's great. There are some doctors, not officially who give patients who travel PACKSLAVID so that if they do get sick, they may have it if they're traveling abroad and otherwise can't get it if they test and turn positive.
We only have about twenty seconds left. But what's the top question that you hear from people who are still, you know, hesitant at this point.
You know, I think they ask good questions, Doctor, do I need this vaccine? Isn't going to make a difference. I've had COVID, I've been vaccinated, and I say it's a difficult decision. There are some adverse effects non a lot if you're in a risk group.
And talk to you all right, Doctor Ian las Vader, clinical professor at Benson at n y U Lingo and joining us. What's more coming up?
This is Bloomberg Um Brother Marco a journal.
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Bloomberg Radio Jessminton and Sophone's Moan Rather Fox would hear the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio on this Friday. We have just under twenty minutes to go before the closing bell. But still when you look on a weekly basis, S and P five hundred, trying to potentially keep those gains, but it's just marginally lower for the week. But to break down everything that we saw this week, who better to bring in than Jj Kinahan, chief executive Officer at
IG North America, joining us on Zoom from Chicago. I've known you a long time, Jj, and getting your perspective on the markets, all things when it comes to macro, especially with the economy and sort of the trickiness of investing right now is amidst a lot of this resilient economic data. I want to start off first because we've been focused so much, especially today on this UAW with
this unprecedented strike. When you are looking at the big three automakers with four GM and stillantes, what's your take for more of a market perspective and what this could potentially mean when you are looking at these stocks.
Well, great to be here and you know it's really interesting what you start off with, and that is you're seeing some of the conundrum that investors are going through right now. If I said to you that the big three automakers are going on strike and they're not really sure where the strikes will take place, and it's going to be very confusing, you would think, my god, those about to get nailed. And instead of what do you see on a day where the overall market is getting
absolutely crushed. You see GM hire by over thirty cents. You see Ford break even too, up a couple of cents. So from that point of view as an investor, it makes it very difficult as you're thinking about, okay, where should I be, Where should I put my money? So we continue to see these mixed messages in the market. This is a little bit of an ugly way to end the week, to be honest with you. As you just mentioned the S and P giving up the gains for the week, you also have crude oil with its
highest clothes we've seen so far this year. I think that's one of the most significant things we'll see in terms of inflation. And we see you know, yields closing their highest so far this month, so that doesn't create a great picture. And there's one more thing I'm going to throw in there that starts to give me a
little bit more a note of caution. And it has been the incredible strength of the dollar as we're going to head into earning season soon, and I really think that's going to start to affect sales at some point here as some of the foreign sales, particularly in the tech sector, you know, the Magnificent seven, Elite eight, whichever of those stocks you want to call it, may have a little bit more trouble with their go forward sales.
Let me pull you back a little bit to this UAW strike, I believe so there was a calculation out there by Anderson Economic Group that ten days of a strike and it's unclear whether they meant that the actual factories that the strike's happening at or not exactly would hit US GDP by five point six billion dollars. Now that's a big number, but it's not an enormous number. If we start seeing this last for you know, a week, ten days, two weeks, where are you looking for pockets of weakness?
Well, I would say that pockets of weakness will be a bit everywhere, and I think it'll affect the overall market. And the reason I will say that is because you also have some other strikes going on at the same time, some strikes being threatened, so you see that sort of slow down start to happen at the same time as you're happening. It does as I mentioned, you know, the price of gasoline is going to hit people directly in
their pocket books. And don't forget this also puts more pressure perhaps on some railroads and trucking, which again is there some slow down there. You know, the auto workers are such a big and powerful union that we've already heard from some of the Teamsters unions that they are going to, you know, in protests slow down or not work as hard. Don't forget that's the people who are
driving those trucks, loading those trucks, loading those trains. So I actually think if this lasts for any period of time, the effect may be bigger. And that's truly what I overall worry about is that the entire transportation sector gets affected, which drives the cost of goods. And you know, we just lived through this whole supply chain shortness, which it feels like we've come out of over the last few months. Does this lead us back to that situation.
You brought up the US dollar in what that could potentially mean for earnings when you're looking at the d x Y. I know the one oh three level was very key for a number of traders even coming into September, and obviously that level has been breached. Right now it's trading around one oh five. What levels are you watching for resistance and support as far as what that could mean in the dynamic for the US docs.
Well, old resistance becomes support, so that you know that one O three level now becomes the support so to speak. But the one O six just under like the one one oh five, you know, eighty five to one o six in that area will be an area that you need to watch if we can break through that. I actually think that it's going to be a major effect, if you will, on earnings if it lasts for any amount of time, because we've seen this incredible move this pound euro over the last few weeks and it really
is amazing. One other level I will bring up, if you don't mind relating everything back to the S and P five hundred and what we see there is this forty four forty four sixty level. I'm sorry, we're trading about forty four to fifty at the moment on the S and P five hundred cash those who are bullets, you'd really like to see us close back above that. And so this last you know, fifteen minutes or so of the trading day becomes so interesting because don't forget,
it's also triple witching day. Triple witching. You will often see on the close, you know, more pronounced moves, if you will, And those last ten minutes or so today, given that we've seen grape vinds, we've seen huge moves, would not surprise me to see us have a very big move on the.
Close when you say forty four to sixty. What's the significance for that particular levels?
If yeah, if you go back through, if you go back through to August, that was one of the levels that we really had a lot of trouble going back and forth, and so it becomes one of our biggest levels for support right now.
I want to ask as well about one of the big headlines in the last day or so, the possibility that Disney could sell off some of its ABC assets. Does this mean anything more broadly in the market, and you know, do you think it'll happen? Sorry, we only have about a minute here.
Do I think will happen? You know, it certainly seems to be a will that it does happen. There's a lot to be considered as to where it goes because you know, again ABC and some of the broadcasting of games, et cetera. I actually think one of the true values of ESPN, and so we'll see what happens there. Does
it mean much for the overall market? What I really think it may mean is the next area you start to look at is so many of these streaming services because now streaming, particularly if you're a sports fan, has become so expensive because you know, you look at Major League Baseball, you might have the same team playing in five different places. Is over the season that gets really expensive for people.
We only have ten seconds left. But if you could ask pow a question next week, what would it be?
What does he actually see the rates being one year from now? I don't think it actually matters so much over the next few months, right, what's the longer term?
Perspip?
Thank so much.
JJ Kinahan, Chief executive Officer at IG North America.
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