Snap Warning Drags Tech Stocks Down

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Global News Snap, which is still down about so staying near its lows, plummeting like a rock last night after it came out with its latest update. It is down below its ip O price, cutting its revenue and profit forecast. And then, of course you know that news tim Affecting the social media space. Yeah, we're seeing

shares of Google parent alphabet lower. We're seeing Facebook, also known as meta platforms, take a hit today as well. Man deep Seeing, a senior tech industry analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, Man Deepest with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio Mandy, how we're investors caught so off guard by this, and we should note that, uh, only in the last month or so after Snap reported earnings for its most recent quarter,

it came out with a revision to its outlook. Yeah, and look, I think what has happened is because of the macro slow down expectations really kind of, I mean they're tied to inflation, right, So that is what is driving this, uh pullback and ad spending. And everyone had that perception that digital ad spending is more resilient that you know, and if we go into a recession, digital ad spending will hold. Well, that's definitely not the case.

And what we're finding is advertising digital ad spending is as cyclical as it used to be, and so nothing has changed this time is not different when it comes to digital ad spending being tied to you know, macroeconomic growth. And clearly advertisers are pulling back more so on the retail side. So in terms of numbers, retail ad spending is about one third of the overall four billion dollar market, and it looks like this pull back is more tied

to retailers pulling back on their ad spend. The e commerce guys where there was a pull forward during the pandemic, they're the ones who are pulling back more. I mean, you don't have to be, you know, living under a rock to to understand what's happening with retail right now. Carol in the most recent earnings, Well, I agree with that, but I guess what I'm saying, what I think about is I look at the chart and I go back to like pre pandemic early, end of early. We're kind

of back to those levels. So to me, that shark, that bump, that mountain that it climbed, was that the aberration because of the pandemic, and folks were just getting back to normal times for for a name like Snap and others. Yes, So the multiple expansion that we saw during the pandemic, you know, all the e commerce companies really going to meta and app chat to find new customers.

That was what drove the multiple expansion. Now we are at a point where advertisers feel like they have overspent and now that their sales are declining, they're pulling back very aggressively. So they're not like, think of are they pulling back to kind of pre pandemic levels. So that's more now. So this is like, if I'm an advertiser who's spending million dollars on sales and marketing, am I going to pull back on Google Search spend? Probably not. That's the last one I'm going to cut back on.

But I can't pull pull back on Meta and Snapchat and Pinterest because these were the platforms that paid off during the pandemic. But I'm not so sure about the r o I. So it's really about what is discretionary here versus what is essential? And Google Search, to me, is still essential for every advertiser. Is it hard for you to imagine snap being worth less today than it's worth when it went public? All So again it goes back to the multiple expansion versus you know, multiples really

coming down. And this feels like a little bit of overreaction given Snapchat still has three million daily active users, the engagement trends are still holding up. But the problem for snap is it has been around ten years and it's not going to grow fifty anymore. So it's more of growth and investors don't pay a premium for you know, low growth companies, and in the case of snap It, it's not like ebit dumb margins of it's barely but

not positive. So the profitabilities in their growth is tapering off, and suddenly like Google, Search or Alphabet seems like a better asset to invest in at these valuation is compared to you know, some of the other names. Is It also a reminder that in terms of digital advertising that there's just so much in terms of the size of the pool. And you and like you said, are you going to give you know, cut back on Google, No, because right here you're gonna win probably with that strategy.

So you're gonna pick and choose, and maybe some of these smaller players are no longer going to get a share of that pie, which is a limited pie, right yes, And now you have Amazon as well, So earlier it

used to be a duopoly Alphabet and Meta. Now you've got Amazon, which is pretty sizeable thirty thirty five billion, growing at very healthy fort So if the overall ad spending is growing let's say ten percent, and it's not going to grow ten percent this year because last year it grew thirty percent and we had a pull forward,

it's pretty obvious now. So if it's growing, you know, high single digit, a lot of those incremental dollars are going to Google and Facebook because they are proven platforms when it comes to our o I on out spending. The other ones are not as proven, and I think that's what is happening. Snaps woes hitting Pinterests really hard today. Man, Deep it's down twenty it's having its worst day ever as a publicly traded company, trading at levels last scene

in April May thirty seconds. Give us your take on this hitting pinterest same thing? You know, Smaller digital ad venders will have a very tough time if Twitter wasn't taken private or it wasn't put the same same kind of a day in terms of stock market. So I I think the long tale of digital advengers. They will have a very tough time navigating this environment. But the ones that keep the engagement intact will come out, you know,

much better out of this downturn. I know Bloomberg Intelligence doesn't give stock targets, you don't make recommendations, But does it make more sense Snap as a twenty one billion dollar market cap company or maybe a little bit above this and just kind about fifteen seconds? Yeah, Well, look, I think engagement is key. Social media is a very tough space. It is all about user growth and engagement. If and if Snap keeps the engagement it has competition

from TikTok and roadblocks, they will do well. Alright, always smart Mandep saying he's senior tech industry analyst Bloomberg Intelligence. Here in our studio, this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So among our most right on the Bloomberg Today. It's about how more Americans are quitting their jobs than ever in the United States, and fewer are sticking around in their new positions. Molly Smith

is economics editor for Bloomberg News. She joins us via the phone from New York City. Molly, job jumpers. How

do you define a job jumper? So we worked on the story in tandem with Lincoln and some of the data they were able to compile based on profile changes in one and the data set and goes back to So what they found is of workers who took a new job last year, the share who had been in their prior job for less than twelve months rose by six and a half percent compared to and that's the highest it's been since Lincoln started tracking the data in So what that's telling us is that people are in

their jobs for less amount of time and there and the amount of them who are in a job for that shorter tenure is growing. Why is it happening? Molly? So there? I mean the right now, job opportunities are just so immense. For um. You know that they have grown so much during the pandemic recovery, with the advent of remote work, with people's wages growing up, especially if you're changing locations, um, and that people have just really

redefined their relationship with work. So there are a lot of opportunities right there that people right now are trying to take advantage of and looking at how work plays a role in their lives. So is this something that continues? What is how is Lincoln thinking about this? How our employers thinking about this? In terms of attracting and retaining talent?

If people are jumping around, then that's expensive. It is, And based on some of our own economist data at Bloomberg, there are signs to show that it's maybe flowing at least if you're looking at this by wages, which of course money is a huge factor for why people decide to leave their jobs. Uh So, right now, it looks like wage increases maybe leveling off based on a few different economic indicators, and also by some of the small

business indicators we track as well. The National Federation of Independent Business UM has been has some metrics that point to this leveling off as well. So you could start to see some of the job jumping slowing now that

wage increases might be leveling off. Well, that's what I wanted to ask you, because how much of this is just you know, how many times throughout my career people are like, you want to make more money, you get jumped somewhere else, like you know, and sometimes that's true, sometimes that's not true, um, But how much of the job jumping that's going on is driven by wanting to make more even though you know, Molly, there's so many different surveys out there that's saying it's not just about

money why people are are are taking jobs are moving around of course, and you know, based on LinkedIn data alone, that's not really something we can disturn and we can only just based on this data that just see that the number of people who are in a job for less than a year is growing. Uh So, based on that, and based on the fact that quits are very high and layoffs are very low, the only thing we can really infer with good confidence is that these moves are voluntary,

as then people are not being let go from their jobs. Um. But as far as the motivation for leaving, um, I mean, I would definitely say that pay continues to be a big reason. But of the people who I spoke to for their story, regret was also just a part of it, and that not getting a great sense of the workplace there in especially if you're interviewing for a job remotely and then only to arrive and realize that, like, maybe

you made a mistake. Was that the theme that that sort of tied together the people you spoke to who regretted making the jump, that they didn't get a good idea of what they were in for because perhaps they interviewed remotely, or they only got to know people remotely before they started their job. Yeah, and I think as well. I mean, some of it too is that there's such demand for challenge right now. The way that these interview

problems are going is on such a tighter timeline. I mean, you can really make these switch its happen a lot faster. So that could also perhaps me that maybe you're not talking to as many people as you normally would before taking a new job that you're only meeting with perhaps to select few managers or teammates um before you sign that offer letters. So that could also perhaps um be

part of the equation here. You gotta say, Molly, a very cool data set that you guys worked on with LinkedIn, because I think this is one of the big questions Tim and I talked about it. There's so many different stories the financial community of people saying Yep, everybody's going to come back to the office, and then Credit Sweets CEO saying, now we're going to see a lot more people working from home. And it's just one of those things, right Tim, that it's we won't know until a few

years after. We won't know maybe in a year AGW. I've said this repeatedly. I think it had so much us to do with the tight labor market that we're in right now, and if we start to see slack there, then employees are calling the shots rather than employers, right

it changes dramatics. We actually had a related story on this also out today's UM from some other data that UM from our Future of Work crew that we were able to track down that you know, a lot of the people who are very hell bent on getting workers back in the office claim that it's been for connectivity. But back to the workers who are coming into the ones who came connected of all, Yeah, ask me right, or ask us, ask us we were workers. I should say, Hey,

Molly Smith, thank you so much. Molly is Economic editor at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, remember yesterday we talked about the Bloomberg Big Take and how the global energy shortage sets the stage for hot and deadly summer. Well, we kind of have part two of this we do. Joining us now is Will Wade, Power and Renewable Energy editor for Bloomberg News. Will's with

us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. He's got a piece in the upcoming issue of Business Week magazine, but you can read it now on the Bloomberg terminal and at Bloomberg dot com slash a Business Week. It's about us consumers facing a summer of pain when it comes to the power bill. This is heat and gas surge. Well, I read a story like, well, I want to start by just you giving us the numbers. How how how ugly is it going to get for Americans out there

this summer as they crank the A C. Oh really ugly. Oh. The number we're using now is your utility bill this summer could be about the year ago. But the thing is that's based on natural gas prices, and that's assuming gases at eight bucks, and right now it's almost nine bucks. So that means the utility bill could be even higher than and that was already high. I'm gonna become my father. I can just see this like the air conditioner turn off, the lights go up in the pool kind of thing

like cool offesomehow if you have a pool? I'm coming over. No, I don't write now. So here's the here's the crazy thing. I wrote a story just like this in March, based on January numbers, and that story basically said the same thing, Hey, your utility bill is gonna be really high because of natural gas prices and passing through the consumer, and people are upset about it. Then and the number then, was

that prices are gonna be like higher. I'm just doing the same story because the same things are happening, all right, Joel. Remember Joe Weber's here, editor of Bloomberg business Week magazine. Remember when we had just so much nat gas It was just so cheap and everybody a year ago, yeah, three bucks a year ago. It's almost nine bucks now. Who made money on that trade? By the way, gas traders? Traders? Yeah,

So where are we going to be? Come like fall could be close to nine, could be close to nine through much of the next year, according to the forward curve I was looking at. But the thing is gas was between like two and three bucks from one. It is just spiked since last summer. So are the supplies there? Is? It just crazy crazy demand. It's kind of a combination

of the two. And it really goes back to COVID because the first thing that happened in COVID was electricity con assumption went down because everybody started saying home, so the gas producers cut back on production. And then last summer everybody came out of their houses, and all the factories and all cis started going back into work, and electricity demands started shooting up, but there wasn't enough gas and coal too, So now we've got a shortage of fuel. Well,

how do how do we get here? Just? I mean generations ago? Well, what are the policy decisions that have been made where we're not really m yeah, I'm just thinking about you know it, We're have availability of solar right now. Nuclear plants are just essentially gone because there was you know, widespread outrage about those. Uh, I mean, how do we get out of this mess? Well, it's

interesting you mentioned nuclear. That's like one of the next big stories we're working on is whether or not nuclear is going to be important to carry us out of this. There's a big debate about that right now. Um. In terms of policy, people right now are pressing for more fossil fuel production. They say we need this right now, And it's true, we really do need this electricity right now. But thinking about fossil fuels is the way to save

us is really short term thinking. Well, and I feel like that's part of the discussion comeing out of Davos right now in terms of we can't give up on our climate change metrics. Um, it's just too to devastating if we do so. Consumers are just basically gonna have to grin and bear it. Right, there's no way out of this. If you want your A C, You're gonna have to pay for it. Everybody knows that companies are

thrilled at the extra money that's coming in. Well, the first part of yes, consumers is gonna can't wait for the early storms of November already. Right, Well, consumers do have to grin and bear it. They don't really have a whole lot of choice. The way the utility bill system is designed is the cost of that fuel just passes straight through the consumers. But they get mad at their utilities that you know, that's who the bill comes from. But it's not really the utilities fault. So I'm just

gonna guess something's gonna break this summer. It's gonna be a grid somewhere. There's gonna be a brown out something, and then d C is gonna be like how did we ever get here? Right, and like, what's gonna what's gonna change? After a brutal summer, people might get more said about it. We might see some outrage in the elections. Did you see the hurricane forecast that came out this morning? And talked about it did our seventh straight year of

more hurricanes than normal. Yeah, so I mean like layer and I mean we keep talking about whether it's the food crisis, whether it's i mean just pick its supply chains, it's you know, geopolitical, there's just this like perfect storm that continues to impact our world. No pun intended. Well, it's it's the it's the right phrase. Everything seems to

be close to the breaking point. Well, as you point out this story, well this hits lower income Americans disproportionately because a larger portion of their income goes to costs such as these. They don't have as much discretionary income. And as you write, you could stop driving places if there's demand destruction there. But if it's over a hundred degrees somewhere and you know you need to cool where you live, that your conditioner is going to stay on. Absolutely,

that's a safety issue. And that is that's another impact of climate change, because we've got these heat waves that used to bring things up to nine degrees and people to go, oh this is really hot. Now it's a hundred and ten degrees and people die. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. My brother lives in Seattle and he had never used None of the houses in Seattle have air conditioner and he just got installed. They know they do now, Yeah, they're all getting them installed right now because they need

it from Oregon. And like last summer, you know, the heat dum hit and if you didn't have a c you did, you know, or you hope you did early on. And it's lethal. I mean, this is scary stuff, Like it's truly. Uh, it hurt your wallet and you know it it is you know, can can kill you. But the the interesting thing that I think here too is like, well we were we wrote a story, uh a couple of months ago now about how Europe was going to feel the pain, and it was like, oh, it's their problem,

you know, their system, so screwy. Uh, they didn't have the foresight. And here we are and it's you know, the boomerang effect and and it's going to happen in America right Like, so is there any are there any lessons to be learned from from Europe that apply over here from that experience. Europe's in a really tight spot these days. They've got their own electricity shortages, partly because of whether or not they're going to continue getting fuel

from Russia. France for some reason, has a lot of nuclear power plants that are suddenly offline this spring, and they're facing electricity shortages too. That's why we're shipping so much gas over there, which is just another reason why we have less gas here and the price of gas goes up. Is that likely to change? Is they're gonna be political pressure potentially? I mean we just we see it with India with food, you know, right doing export controls.

Could we see that here? Not likely. I've been seeing both sides of that debate. Don't ship the gas over there because we need it. But if we don't ship the gas over there, then they're going to have more electricity shortages, and our friends and allies will be unhappy with us, and we don't like that. Remember when we didn't export anything, like you know, like those days last year. Sorry what we were calling. We're thinking about this, like

will wait is our Bloom and Doom editor. Sorry, great title. I'm really sorry about that. I'll put that in for you business cards, well, like thunderstorms, will wait, though he is power renewable Energy editor at Bloomberg News. Check out this story the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine online on the Bloomberg Until Weber, of course, editor of Bloomberg Business Week, both in our Interactive workers studio. You

are listening to Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

on Bloomberg Radio. We'll not sure if you've noticed, but retail credit is having its worst months in this march of stung by blow ups at the likes of Party City and Carvona, and last week's bad Walmart and Target News triggered an avalanche avalhanche in bonds from high street names including Macy's, Michael's Bath and body Works, so many best buy though a bit of an isolated ray of hope, we see the stock up today as well. Well. I want to start with the bad news first, okay, so

we'll start with Abercrombie and Fitch. We are joined out by Jordan Holman. She's retail reporter for Bloomberg News. She's also been spending a lot of time with Quicktake recently, so it's been great to have her on our team over between Quick Take here at Bloomberg. Jordan joining us via zoom from our Atlanta bureau. So, so Jordan's Abercrombie and Fitch shares are just cratering today. Um, Why did

investors not see this coming? So? Investors were kind of caught off guard by the profitability issue that Abercrombie showed, which to your guys point we saw last week with Walmart and Target. But what Abercrombie was showing was its global reach of supply chain issues are still an issue for them. Um, and even though they were selling a lot, they weren't able to pass on those costs to consumers and switch it up as quickly as Wall Street would

have hoped. So it's not a case, Jordan, of demand, right, Consumers want stuff, They just it's a case, it seems like increasingly of many retailers who just can't meet that demand or their higher costs are eating into their margins. Absolutely. One stat that Abercrombie showed was that they had the highest sales in North America since so in a decade, just showing that that consumer demand is there. It is

just the higher costs for everything. A lot of the items that Abercrombie is getting is coming from Vietnam, is coming from overseas and even though they don't think the supply chain issues that we saw at the end of one will be as intents, there are still there. Jordan, What what's the international picture look like for Abercrombie and Fitch. What's it telling us not just about the U S consumer,

but the international buyer. So if you look at their European market, you know they're operating in the UK, Germany, France. Um that there is some pressure there because while consumers are willing to suspend, it's the question on on what So flatter cells are happening over in the in Europe compared to North America, and then kind of they're facing lockdown still, they're facing issues with even people being able

to go to the factories and work. So it's just a lot of confusion and noise taking place over there, and that's no way that retailers like to plan their business though a lot of disruption still, So Best Buy, let's walk through that this stock is actually app today. The CEO talking about seeing elements of soft demand but not a full inflation. Uh, talk about const inflation largely in line with expectations. Um, what do you think we

need to know about that? Report. So Best Buy is really interesting because they're in this um consumer electronics space, so it is discretionary. It is something that people have been buying a lot because we've been at home, we've been looking at screen, so you're good TVs or um laptops or phones, what have you. And so best Buy they know that a shift is happening and what people might want to start spending on, so they have prepared

for that. But it is another case of the magnitude or the extent of how us they prepared or how much they expected consumers to shift their spending habits. And so that's the really important thing. What came up time and time again on the earnings call that the executives had with analysts where people asking about is the signs of recession? How do people feel about the economy, and the executives that they still feel strong about the consumer demand that's out there is just a matter of how much.

So what's the difference. What's the difference here? Because you know we're hearing from Bank of America CEO Brian moynihan, he's he's positive on consumer spending. Company CEOs are positive on consumer spending, at least from a retail perspective to a certain extent. But then you have companies, you know, freezing hiring or slowing hiring like Snap for example, Twitter freezing hiring and rescinding offers. Jordan, help us make sense

of the different signals that we're getting. I think right now what we're seeing as companies are trying to control what they can control um in light of potential pain that might come in the coming weeks or months. And so when you do have a case like you know, slowing down hiring that is trying to save on some of your costs. Another important data points is like how people feel about the economy despite what the actual data says.

And that's a really key point that retailers have to look at in terms of do people want to spend on big ticket items That kind of goes back to the the best I. Do people feel confident that they can afford that UM washing shane when they know they're paying like a hundred dollars at the pump. So those are really important signals that retailers looking for as they continue to plan the rest of the year. Yeah, exactly. Or if they're not buying those houses they don't need to

buy those washing machines to fill it. I want to point out that the S and P supercomposite retailing industry group is down about so far this year. Jordan Holman, thank you so much. He follows retail for us here at Bloomberg, joining us from Atlanta Bureau the Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive, No, no, no, please, I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive this drive to the clothes on radio. All right, we have just

about ten minutes left in today's trading session. We've seen a fair amount of volatility once again, we've seen some investors moving into bonds on this Tuesday. I am so glad that we are having Randy Watts back with us. Perfect timing once again to have him on his chief investment strategist at O'Neil Global Advisors. He understands things about fundamentals, but he also intelligently explores the technicals. He's back with us on the phone in Miami. Randy, nice to have

you here with Tim and myself. When you look at this market environment, how do you see it? Especially as we try to figure out are we nearing a bottom when it comes to the equity trade? Are we topping out when it comes to yields. Well. First off, thanks for having me back. I hope you and Tim are both well In terms of the market. Unfortunately, we don't have the signs yet of the absolute low. One of the things we study at William O'Neill is a thing

called follow through days. That's when the market goes up a lot on a big spike in volume. No bull market has started without a successful follow through day, but sometimes they fail. Normally, when two of them fail, you have a se chance you're in a bear market. We just had the third one fail. And what I want to tell your listeners is that in a normal extended bear market, you'll have five or more failed follow through days before the market turns, and the bear markets usually

last over four hundred days. We're about a hundred and forty days into it, so we actually haven't seen the signs yet that we're at the absolute bottom. I will also say one things we look at is the percentage of stocks in the New York Stock Exchange above their thirty week moving average. Right now that number is just below about twenty five. But at the low, and that number was more like two, and the two thousand and

eighteen low was more like six. So I hate to say it, but there's still downside at this market, so we would continue to proceed with caution. The last thing I'll say is that we are, however, overdue for a bear market rally. Such a relic could be very, very sharp. If the ASTEC just went back to its fifty day would be a move. So, you know, you just gave

us a lot of info, a lot of technicals. Are you looking at a year end target for the SP or some sort of technical where we could see a balance like that could be the bottom an actual number on the SMP. There's a lot of support on the SMP between thirty eight hundred and thirty eight fifty that

we are we are unfortunately today. If you if we bust through that, then the next stop looks to be around thirty five hundred, which is the top of a cup and handle formation we formed back in November of which was also when the market shifted from work from home stocks too, started moving towards towards energy and the cyclical reopening. Right now, unfortunately, commodities are still the leadership

in this market. You know, there's so many different We talked about this perfect storm going on whether it's geopolitical impact, you know, supply chains out there, higher rates, um, There's just so much stuff going on, And I do wonder, Randy, when you look at this market environment, is it just a case of we need to think about getting back

to where we were pre pandemic. That things are so distorted right now because of unprecedented stimulus and so many other different factors, that that's how we need to think about it. What is what is organic growth right that isn't impacted by a lot of external factors, unusual external factors. So a couple of things to unpack. Their first is earnings estimates just started to turn negative, so they really just started to go down down at the end of April.

Right now, the markets the analysts are using two. I would be very surprised if that's the number the SMP prints and they're using to three. So I think both of these numbers have to come down. Second, we're in a new inflation and interst rate regime. I think there's a distinct possibility the FED could be done tightening by the end of this calendar year, and that could set

up for a very powerful bull move next year. But in the short run, right Now, when you look ahead to like let's say June and the f o MC meeting on the fourteenth and fifteenth, the markets pricing in a chance of a fifty basis point increase and a chance of a seventy five basis point increase. So I think it's still so I think the market it's going to be tough for the market to have an extended bull move while we still have a lot of rate

increases ahead of us. I think it's unlikely that the Fed funds is going to get to where people initially thought at the beginning this cycle, the market was looking for three to three and a half percent type Fed funds number. I think it's unlikely we're going to get there, but it's still probably gonna go to two to two

and a half percent again. To repeat, I think that I think the Fed could be done tightening the year, but they're not going to be done tightening over the next couple of months, and that's going to remain a major headwind for equities. Do you think we actually move into I know you're a market guy, but I do wonder if you think about in terms of macro h conditions that stagflation is likely I think there's a distinct chance we're already in a recession. You know, obviously, last

quarter the economy shrink. The recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking g d P, so I think that's a real risk. I think the number everyone's going to fixate on is watching jobs, and if jobs stay strong, I would point out housing, which is just under twenty percent of the economy, is starting to really soften. I think home sales were down in April, so I think there's a lot of activity out there. I don't want

to sound too negative. This too shall eventually pass, but I think in the short run, the next few months, investors should stay cautious. We could have a very very sharp bear market rally. Rallies are sharper in bear markets than they are in bull markets, but I still think you need to be cautious until you've seemed like the FED is starting to stabilize its heightening policy and that the economy is still okay. Randy, do you see the FED able to do a soft landing here? I think

it's going to be very very hard. I hope they can. I think the key thing that they're gonna they're gonna focus on personally is probably jobs. Um, I do think the job picture is likely to soften because I think consumer spending as we moved through the next few months is going to soften because of inflation and housing prices, etcetera. So I am I'm very I want to be very clear, I'm very, very nervous about the economy right now. And I don't think the FED is at the point yet

where they can stop raising rates. I think have a few more at least a few more months of tightening before they're going to be in that situation. And so well, I think we could have a bounce here. I think we haven't made the final low for this cycle, all right, just got about twenty seconds here. Um, you you're nervous. You said that. Does it feel though, to some extent orderly and it makes sense based on kind of the moves that we've seen, the rapid run up that we've

seen in a lot of asset classes. Yeah, that's a great question. It does seem ortally so far, but unfortunately, normally bear markets and something that's not orderly sort of a panic bottom and a big spike down. I don't think we're quite there yet. I don't think we've had that. It has been orderly. Only the NAS deck is above. It's it's a the smp I was feeling this point, have to get a little bit worse till we see the final bottom, all right. Always love checking in with you, Randy.

Thank you so much, Randy Watts's chief investment strategists at O'Neil Global Advisors, talking us through the technicals on the phone in Miami. Thanks for listening to Bloombergus this week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News