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With more on the currency trade and declines in the US dollar. Bloomberg News FX and Rates reporter Carter Johnson is here in the Bloomberg Business Week Studio. The declines that we continue to see in the US dollars, the flows behind it, what's the story that's telling you?
Sure?
Absolutely, Thanks Jim, Thanks Carol. And I think what's really interesting is we can look at this on a pretty long timeline. So I'm starting to hear comparisons late last week, today, yesterday to this feels like early twenty twenty five and
Liberation Day all over. And that's just because yes, we're seeing some action at stocks and treasury and treasuries, but really this is a real sort of dollar focused impulse to sell, and of course on a shorter timeline as well, we can think about that in the context of what we saw last week, which was some pretty concerted movement in dollar yen specifically, and that was, as we reported, likely because some folks here in the US, the New York Fed, acting at the best of the Treasury, were
reported to us to be checking rates and sort of calling into some banks and seeing where exchange rates were trading, so on a couple different levels, sort of in the near term and in the big picture, as you mentioned, Carol, questions about the US physical position policy and certainty those are all combining right now.
Carter reading in this morning, you know, Bloomberg reporting app the positioning is heavily one sided. They said since Thursday, roughly two thirds of options trades in the year and the Australian dollar have been bets on further greenback weakness. So is this largely about dollar decline and not about bets on other currency strength backed by fundamentals.
It's a great question. I think the answer honestly is both. And a lot of that impulse, as we just talked about, is because of a declining dollar in questions about US policy, but we are seeing relatively solid growth expectations in the rest of the world, whether that's Europe, maybe that's in Asia, and that really underpins the impulse to sell dollars as well.
If the rest of the world, if growth in the rest of the world was creatoring at the moment, we wouldn't be seeing this sort of action we're seeing in terms of dollar sales. So it's absolutely the other side of the coin as well.
We've got stock investors watching and listening to this program. What is the relationship between weakness in the dollar and what happens in the equity market. I mean, you made the comparison minutes ago. It to kind of feels like April twenty twenty five, and we all remember what happened to the equity markets during that time.
Absolutely, and I think that's the big question is will we see that again. Where typically you'd expect to see the dollar weaker as stocks strengthen, they have a negative correlation, particularly the dollar as a traditionally have an asset, we didn't see that late last year. The stock's, the dollar, treasuries, they were all falling together. So I think that's the big question right now is will we see that again. I don't think we are yet, but in sort of
a different picture as well. A week er dollars should theoretically support domestic manufacturers, it should support exporters here in the US. That's typically what we'd see on a lag but we also know that that's something that Trump administration has been vocal about as well. A week er dollar theoretically, again doesn't work instantaneously, but theoretically supports domestic manufacturing and exporters who are looking to sell to the rest of the world.
Hey, one other thing I want to ask you, though, but is it about global investors and we've talked about flows into European equities. Is it another sign perhaps that global investors are less interested in dollar denominated investments.
It is possible, although I think it's too early for us to say at this point. As we knew last year, we don't have that data yet necessarily, and again, if we look at just the relative performance of US stocks, they're they're doing all right, they're certainly holding up. I think what it could definitely be indicative of, and this is something we've covered a bit here at Boomberg in the past, is hedging behavior. And what that means is you're a global investor here in the invested here in
the US. You might still want your exposure to US stocks in US tech, but you're gonna hedge that dollar component of that much more than maybe you used to mention.
J Powell tomorrow the press conference. What are you watching for from from your purchase somebody who watches FX.
Absolutely, I think, just as we are in the rates in the treasuries world as well.
Any sort of.
Forward guidance that we can get from from Chair Powell that'll be a tall order given the spotlight he's under at the moment, But any sort of future guidance about the outlook for rates this year, that'll be particular impactful for the dollars as well as rates.
Right if for any indications that there's higher rates coming we're talking about that could put some a floor under the dollar correct, that could definitely help.
Yeah, and you know it's funny, Yeah, No, for sure, JP Morgan when they came out with their big currency forecast late last year, they're barish on the dollar. But the big risk to their barish dollar view is the Fed has to turn around and hike again. We might not see that, but that's that's the risk.
Although there is it feels like a growing conversation about inflationary concerns, which would certainly lead the Fed possibly certainly to keep rates as is or possibly hike them out to see Cord, thank you so much laying out the currency trade for us as we continue to watch the US dollar. He's Bloomberg News FX and Rates Reporder Carter Johnson.
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The group of airlines stocks as a whole off about two percent today. Here to talk about that. We're also going to talk about Boeing, which also reported today, is Sheila Kayalu. She is managing director in equity research at Jeffrey. She joins us here, it's studio, nice to have you here. Happy New Year. You know January is over, but elm us, let's just start with the airlines and then we want to move into defense because you cover that really closely
as well. It does feel like they're all finding their way back after the storm. We're trying to see if there's another storm. In terms of the impact, is it's still a case of they're still trying to assess. How do you, as someone who covers some of these names, kind of factor that in.
Yeah.
In terms of airlines, we're looking for revenue growth. We've seen the same trend across American that we saw at United and Delta. Corporate was up twelve percent. Corporate momentum continues. I'm taking a very long flight this weekend and then main cabin weakness, but it's getting a little bit better, and it's all about cost control. That's why I think you United one up the most on earnings is they really beat out on costs when American Airlines margins came
in one hundred BIPs below our estimate. So I think the most polarizing stock is going to be Southwest. I'm really excited for their report on Thursday because they have some lofty targets.
The stock's at forty dollars today.
Some people think it's going to thirty, some people think it's going to eighty. It's all about they're adding extra lug room seats and it is the strategy going to work.
But that's a huge shift for Southwest. I mean, they're essentially moving away from their DNA, what they're known for and the culture that they're known for, and that's alienated some people already.
Yeah, it depends.
So the average Southwest fair is about one hundred and nine dollars. So if you add an option for extra lug room or refundable or seating, if you add fifty dollars to that cost of that airfare, so one hundred and fifty nine, it's a fifty percent increase.
Almost does the passenger back away?
I'm not sure, but then again, it's only one hundred and fifty nine dollars, So how do we think about that and what adoption do we assume we're at about five percent adoption in twenty six. They have a bunch of other benefits as well, baggage fees and cost optimization. So that's driving their EPs to three dollars, essentially ebit tripling off of a very low twenty five base. So
we'll see how much of that they get. You know, some people think they could godd to four dollars or even five dollars as more of that extra lug room adoption comes in but it's their first go at it, and we'll see how it takes off.
You have a forty five dollars price target, so you're not at the eighty and you're not at the thirty. So maybe a little bit higher from where we are.
You know, I would prefer United where they've If you think about United, they're going to be accounting for forty four percent of the why of the new premium seats through twenty twenty eight, so they're going to be accounting for more than any other airline in the US Americans after that in Southwest because of their extra lug room.
I prefer to bet on that corporate customer paying one thousand plus one hundred dollars to achieve that additional corporate fare and that higher margin where United is adding its seats than Southwest adding on the You know, I think both are given the multiples that.
They're currently trading at. United is more appealing to me.
Let's talk some defense and then we'll talk some Boeing too. I want to look at shares of RTX. They're higher right now by about three point four percent. Profit topp to Wall Street estimates assign the momentum that the company awaits a potentially huge jump in US military spending.
That's kind of where I want to start.
What we've heard from President Trump in the last few weeks, not just with the idea of a one point five trillion dollar defense package, but also calling on some of these companies to do a better job, pay their executives less, and also build stuff for the US government more quickly.
What are these CEOs to do.
There's a lot going on in defense, and that's what I was saying. It's an exciting sector to cover because this is the first time that the five Primes might no longer exist as five primes by the end of the Trump administration, which is our view. We think that there's going to be similar to what LHX announced days ago, there's going to be more deconsolidation happening among the primes. Their budget is going up by five hundred billion from a trillion dollars. We don't know the time period of
that spending. We don't know how much will be added to actual equipment and R and D versus military operations, but they're seeing an increase, whether it's to fun defense techniques like firefly voyage or the recent IPOs we've seen in the space or the traditional primes or suppliers like aero environment crados are up one hundred percent on the year already and we're twenty seven days in. So it's
really interesting to see what happens in defense. But there's a lot of shakeups that are I think are going to play out. So it's about seeing who has the best position positioned portfolio and who to play from here.
I was surprised, like I know, when you walked in we started talking, and I mean aerospace defense. Just the S and P broad Index up about nine percent year to date, up about forty six percent last year. Is it just because defense spending all around the globe is just happening and everybody's amping it up.
It's yeah, it's as simple as that.
Unders growth internationally twenty percent plus NATO budgets, Japan, Korea. We're seeing countries like Serbia put in orders that never used to, put in billion dollar orders for equipment to companies like Elbett in Israel. Coupled with the defense budget going from a trillion to one point five trillion makes defense very interesting and the administration has been very supportive
of defense tech. Emergent technology companies, companies that had stagnant revenues for the last decade are seeing thirty forty percent growth.
But you know, as to mention, you know, when the president talks about an industry, it can be good or bad. So is it good that they're on his radar?
But when he's the world five million.
Dollars we're talking about he.
Did back off of that.
He didn't quantify in the executive order the pay and I.
But he mentioned it, and he mentioned it.
Really, Yes, that's a headline that caught our attention.
And five million dollars.
It sounds like a lot of money, but not for a CEO who's paid over twenty million dollars.
Right the executive executive pay, the average executive pay I would assume in any sectors over twenty million. So the caliber of folks you would get into the defense would be the opposite of what the administration is trying to achieve.
So what do you hear from defense companies about getting some attention like that from the president? Do they do They kind of brush it off a little bit, like we're talking with them.
Like I think one interesting trend we've seen from the reports, whether it was Northrop or raitheon today is the lack of buybacks, because that's what the administration asked for, a focus on additional cap X. Raith Yon mentioned that Northrop mentioned dot Boeing mentioned that, so across the board, everyone's like, sure, we're investing. We're going to get you supplies on time. That's our job and it helps funnel the growth.
The Norther CEO saying northp rebalancing the need for performance with affordability and speed to market to meet the US defense departments focus on speedy development.
Yes, and I think Kathy Ward and the CEO of Northup said this was the best spending environment she's ever seen in her career. So most of these executives are very bullish.
Do the off starts in defense tech pose a threat to the incumbents? And I'm thinking of you know, an Anderill that is not yet And I say not yet because obviously this company, well IPO at some point soon. Do they compete with these incumbents.
Yes, clearly they're competing and they're collaborating. They're working together both internationally and domestically. The primes are trying to work with you know, Northropez a partnership with Kratos on CCA. It's the autonomous vehicle essentially, so we're seeing a lot more collaboration, but they're also trying to take share.
But the budget is growing.
Overall, and that's the bottom line, although we're not really seeing it. In twenty six Northrops Guidance's five percent growth, they talk about an acceleration from there. In twenty seven twenty eight, same thing with Raytheon it was modest growth in defense.
It didn't really pop.
Yes, it grew in the second half versus the first half, and we'll see how those trends continue.
I feel like with all of the geopolitical tensions and the wars that we've seen around the world, that everybody comes back to the US military might and the defense companies here in the United States. What is the global picture? Where's the competition? Is there not much global competition shila when it comes to the US defense companies, So.
I think it's focused on maybe a few things first as missiles and munitions readiness. We need to have that available and that's why we're seeing companies like Lockheed increase Pack three production from six hundred missiles a year, which package it's a missile Packtory is the name of the missile. Going from six hundred units a year to two thousand, that is significant to say at least that's eight billion of additional revenues to Lockheed over seven years. If they
could ramp to those levels. The backlogs twenty.
Years for a missile like that. We're seeing that across the board.
LHX ten days ago or two weeks ago now announced that they are seeing a government investment within their solid rocket motor business that powers missiles. They're going to open up sixty factories next year. LHX currently has two one hundred and fifty factories, so that's a magnitude of investment we're seeing from the government. So focus on missiles, ammunitions, and second, I think it goes back to old school warfare. Everybody thinks helicopters are we and F thirty five is
a bad program. But we think about Venezuela, if we think about Iran, what's the.
Kind of equipment we're using.
So you know, it's not necessarily rebuilding an entire fleet for the Navy, but it's doing things that we could use pretty quickly.
Just in last ninety seconds, I want to hit Boeing with you, shares are down today by about one point eight percent. The company did report this morning a second straight quarter of generating cash fifty seven percent, bumping sales during the final three months of the year. Shares down though, Is it because of accounting charges for the CAC forty six tanker program?
Is that it?
No, everybody just assumes that's going to happen every quarter.
So we're all going shares down after So the.
Share shares opened down, the call at ten thirty, got it up to write. It reversed about four points and then they're down again. We're a believer in Boeing. They're underwriting their free cash flow was a loss of two billion in twenty five. They're talking about positive two billion at the midpoint in twenty six, normalized for one time items. They're saying their free cash flow is high single just
so say eight billion. They're reaffirming their ten billion target, and then they're saying they could go above that, so you know, ten fifteen. It's giving long only as a reason not to dismiss the stock. If this company could actually earn ten billion of free cash low, then it's quite compelling at its current valuation. So we're seeing a lot of fluctuations. Are they talking back twenty seven to
twenty eight? No, I think that you're going to see two billion in twenty six and an improvement in twenty seven and twenty eight.
So Boeing, let me just say, you've got a two ninety price target, it's at two forty four. You feel good about that?
Yeah?
You want to know is it? We are supportive of Boeing. We think there's a few positive catalysts. I think President Trump might be headed to China in April. We'll see if Boeing heads there. We haven't seen a China order since I can't even recall. Maybe it was twenty nineteen, maybe earlier. So I think Boeing works from here. You know, depressed prices for Max's maybe fifty percent below what they historically sell at today.
This was fun. Come back soon, all right. Sheila Kayalu, she's managing director of equity research at Jeffrey's, joining us here in studio.
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We do head back to the White House and Bloomberg New Senior reporter Jen DLOWI, Jen, good to have you here with us. We know President Trump on his way. I don't think he's landed yet, but we know there is a crowd in Iowa waiting for him. He did say en route to Iowa talking to reporters, he's meeting in terms of Tom Homan, the borders are, he said, he's meeting with the governor in Minnesota. He's meeting with the mayor. I think later and I hear that's all
going very well. What are we hearing? Is it all going so well?
You know early report out. You know, we don't have a great deal of intelligence out of those early meetings, but what we can what we are seeing, of course,
is this effort by the President. It appears to dial down the temperature to do really two things, to express support for Homeland Security Secretary Nome and at the same time, who's obviously been criticized for her handling of these incidents and her characterization of them, and then at the same time also try to find a way forward with local leaders.
You know.
The President repeated that comment to us several times before he headed out to Iowa, you know, saying that he believes the conversations with the governor of Minnesota are going very nicely. And of course he was previewing that later conversation today with Mayor Jacob Fray.
You know, I was surprised to hear, just based on the reporting that we've seen in the last twenty four hours that Tom Homan was headed to Minneapolis. Some of the reporting from other outlets indicated that Christy Nome had been sidelined in some way. She was at a meeting at the White House yesterday, reportedly went a couple of hours according to other outlets. How are you reading into
that reporting? Has she been sidelined? The President earlier expressing his support for her, saying she will not she will stay on at the agency. How are you reading into that?
You know, it's important to appreciate that departures aren't always telegraphed well in advance, but for now President is very clearly, you know, insisting that she has a support That meeting first reported by The New York Times last night and stretching over two hours, included her top aid Corey Lewandowski, you know, the first campaign manager from Trump's twenty sixteen presidential bid.
And also.
It's notable that they came out of that meeting with the President's messaging today about not backing down from her, and in fact, when asked about GNOME's performance, he immediately pivoted to talk about, you know, how she's done a great job on the traditional deportation, you know, focused comments from the president there, notably today on the way to Iowa on the plane on Air Force one, Trump is joined by his senior advisor, Stephen Miller, who had also
drawn a lot of criticism, just like Nome, for his initial characterizations of the shooting over the weekend. Stephen Miller had intimated on social media that the man shot on Saturday was an assassin and domestic terrorist, even though video evidence suggests he had been disarmed and hadn't brandished a weapon.
Hey, you know, Jen, in terms of I was going to ask you about who's the architect of all of this? And I think there's been a lot of reporting, but does it really matter because the buck really stops with the president.
To be fair, you know, the president, this president in particular takes ownership of his policies and it has been quite happy to tout his deportation agenda. You know, it's something he campaigned on so vigorously and and in office has really claimed as a source of pride that he's accomplishing his goal of deporting illegal immigrants.
What is and not the only president to do it, right, We can go back to the Obama administration to be fair, because I think it's important to kind of point that out.
But you know, Stephen Miller is seen internally is of course a big, big factor in this push, obviously someone who's been critical of of the you know, amount of immigration and illegal immigration into the US. But but to your point, you know, Trump has taken ownership of this. This is as much his issue as it is that of a key ally and aid and and it's one where he's We've heard him talk very openly about being
frustrated with the messaging on this last week. He lamented that, you know, the focus hadn't been on the you know, the rapist and murderers, as he characterized them, that were being deported. He even you know, took to the White House briefing room last week to show pictures of some of the deport so that, you know, kind of speaks to his frustration that the messaging has shifted away from where he wants it to be. And of course you know that he's lost some control over the narrative here.
Polls show that even among folks who care, who support his broader immigration crackdown, there's support is waning for the overall effort in the wake of these two deaths.
So then where does where do deportations go from here? If Minneapolis Minneapolis Marrior Jacob Frye and the Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota are successful in de escalating this, does that provide some sort of roadmap to other governors to then go ahead and say, Hey, your federal agents are not welcome here. You are going to have to find a different way to accomplish what you want to when it comes to deportations.
You know, it'll be interesting to see how this gets resolved. I think that will be key to the extent to which it is a roadmap for other states. You know, clearly the govern and mayor have been very forceful in their eagerness to see these folks leave their area. At the same time, you know, Waltz has in the last day indicated he wants to turn down the temperature. We're gonna want to watch what happens with Tom Homan that
the borders are that Trump dispatched to Minnesota. You know, he has focused much more on traditional deportation efforts rather than kind of this broader dragnet or you know, these broader operations that Christy Noman has favored. And so you know, if we see that kind of refocusing back on more conventional deportation efforts, that could be a de escalation and a roadmap for other states and cities concerned about immigration enforcement in their backyards.
All right, super appreciate it, Jen, Thank you so much. Bloomberg New senior reporter Jenda Lowie joining us there.
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Karen Perry is with US, head of us I shares fixed income strategy over at Black Rock and she joins us from San Francisco. Karen, how are you?
I'm doing great, Carrol, Tim, how are you guys doing?
Doing okay? On twenty twenty six, definitely off and running. It's fed Eve right, we'll get that decision tomorrow. Tell us a little bit about when it comes to fixed income. I always like to start with you guys. You're massive in terms of asset manager and the asset management business. Where are you seeing flows in and out when it comes to the fixed income world?
Already this year's already been off to a pretty strong start, so I think last year investors who took on any sort of duration risk were rewarded. We saw the EAG up seven percent last year, and this year, I'd say
some of those trends are continuing. We're seeing people being more selective about where they did their income, so positive flows into flexible income funds like bi inc. We're also seeing people still wanting to invest internationally, so with the dollar being off this year, we're continuing to see more
interest and flows coming back to international fixed income. So I think emerging market bonds with emb or even European high yield people are looking at and then of course, I think one of the biggest trends you can't ignore is just the rise of actively managed bondingtfs. They were actually responsible for about forty percent of the flows last year and we saw over one hundred and thirty seven launches. So people can now access a lot of their favorite bond managers to the ETF.
Yeah, I just want to read some headlines that are I mentioned. President Trump is set to make a speech in Clive, Iowa. He's right now taking questions at a small business in Urbandale, Iowa. The President Carol is saying that China and Japan always wanted to devalue currency. He said, the dollar is doing great. If you're watching us on YouTube or Bloomberg Originals, you can see the President live right there answering some questions from reporters.
Yeah, and I don't know exactly what he means by the dollar doing great.
Maybe he was asked about weakness.
Yeah, I guess so. I mean we're down. I'm looking at the Dollar index down another nine tenths of a percentage point. But we've seen certainly a pullback when it comes to the US currency. You take a look at the major industry developed in the developed world, if you will, and really the dollar at the bottom of the pack, so we definitely have seen some pressure. How does that, Karen, if at all, play into the fixed income world?
I think for a lot of US investors, most bonds are denominated dollars, so it doesn't impact us very directly. But we've seen a big trend where people are looking at going global, grabbing those international bonds. One of our atfs I go, which is just international bonds and those foreign currencies. So I think the euro in is actually off to a really strong start this year, up almost
two percent. So we've seen more people saying, you know what, maybe I want to take advantage of some of a dollar dropping and then one of the easiest way to do that is with international based fixed income ETFs, and so I think that's going to continue. More interests here.
Well, how do you look at this idea of Europe moving away from US treasuries. Our Bloomberg Economics team with a note that says, no, Europe is not about to sell three point five trillion dollars in treasuries a sell America's strategy, our team rights is not in Europe's interest. The financial repercussions would be severe given the regions heavy reliance on US dollar funding. Do you do you agree with that?
I think we see a few countries who made some noise last week about potentially selling off dollar assets. I think it's going to continue to be a major source of liquidity, a major source of stability for a lot of countries. We've seen more volatility, i'd say in the long end because of its investors anticipating that. So I'd say one of the easiest strategies to just move away from super long duration bonds, long duration treasuries in particular.
So we've seen a lot of people reallocating back to that belly of the curve three to seven years and avoiding some of the long end, which I think is going to get hit most if there's negative international sentiment, Karen.
Any signs that you are seeing global investors think that the US is increasingly uninvestable.
We haven't seen that trend yet. I think, if anything, our interest rates are still higher than other countries, and we've even seen interest from international investor into maybe Muni's as a way to get access to high quality bonds that aren't treasuries. Investment grade credit is also of a lot of interest to investors, so you know you're moving away from if the government is going to get more levered. Companies actually have very strong balance sheets and have lower
levels of leverage. So we've seen if anything, people are looking towards US corporate bonds is one of the ways to add diversification.
What are the trends that you're already seeing in the first few weeks of this year. You mentioned what we saw last year, but where are you seeing flows just in the last three weeks.
Yeah, we've seen IG credit, so we have seen over nine hundred million come into USIG, which is just the whole corporate credit curve. A lot of interest picking up
on long duration municipal bond. Those are actually on a tax equivalent basis, yielding over six and a half percent, so you can get some of the same yields you find in high yield but in unis so people are looking at adding duration there and we've just seen more people adding to very short ultra short exposures, putting that cash to work, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of the front end. And then finally, bomb ladders
are really popular. For example, our ibonds et apps We've seen over a billion dollars come into those this year. Our most popular one is our twenty twenty nine IBDU yielding over four percent with only a three year duration. So we're seeing people just stepping out of the front end go into more that intermediate exposure.
Is there anything that you are kind of watching out from that FED decision tomorrow, Karen? Obviously it's the decision and what you hear from the FED and the statement, but it really is the press conference too with j Powell to give a lot more context and color around all of that. He's very careful. It's often we've seen in the last few meetings he tends to say very
similar things. But I'm just curious in the last thirty seconds that we've got with you, what you will be watching out for and you think is important to fixed and coome investors.
So of course we're watching the main decision. We think the FED will continue to be on hold. I think they're going to be data dependent. We've seen FED speak this week, filter and through that they're still waiting for the previous cuts to come through the economy. I think I'm really going to be watching the number of dissenters or we're going to get a nine to three or some kind of even more divided decision.
Yeah, always interesting, right as they play it out and they vote basically and see where they it kind of lands, because we certainly have seen a lot more dissension as of late. Karen, Thank you so much. Karen Verry Perry, she's head of us I Shares Fixed Income strategy over at Blackrock.
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